MCX Gold August: Near-term supports are at 14400 followed by crucial support at 14337 now. As long
as these supports holds, bullishness towards 14882 However, direct fall below 14337 to result in a sharp
fall below 14197-14229 levels.S1: 14370 S2: 14280 R1: 14550 R2: 14650
MCX Silver September: Fall below 21875 resulted in a sharp fall towards 21454 levels. Immediate resistance
is at 21875 now. Further fall from here looks unlikely. Only a break above 22245 to signal resumption of
bullishness.S1: 21530 S2: 21360 R1: 21780 R2: 21950
MCX Copper August: Important supports are at 241 followed by 238 now. Favored view expects supports
to hold for a rally towards 254/256 levels.However, unexpected fall below 236.8 to result in a sharp fall
towards 225/227 levels.S1: 242 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Crude Oil July : Near-term support is at 3206 levels. Failure to hold support here to result in a further
decline towards 3075 levels.Resistances are at 3273 followed by 3305 now.
S1: 3200 S2: 3168 R1: 3275 R2: 3308
MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.00/74.85 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below
74.20 to negate this bullish view. S1: 74.5 S2: 73.40 R1: 76.4 R2: 77.5
MCX Lead July : Dips to 81.00/80.85 to find support for a move higher towards 84.30 levels now. Fall
below 79.70 to negate this bullish view. S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.60 R2: 83.60
MCX Nickel July:Dip to 780/775 to find support for move higher toward 820 level now. Fall below 764 to
negate bullish view. S1:776 S2:759 R1: 804 R2: 819
MCX Natural Gas July:Dip to 175/173 to offer support now for rally toward 185 level. Fall below 173 to
negate bullish view. S1: 177 S2: 174 R1: 184 R2: 188
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The trend is once again held well yesterday.
Support of 14407 also not violated.
The price movement are getting narrower and moving within the converging lines.
Sell on fall below 14400 with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss of 14581.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Sell on fall below 21480 with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.
Intra-day traders wait for rise above 21708 or 21937 and when it falls below 21708 or 21937 then sell with high above 21708 or 21937 as the stop loss.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :;
A sideways movement in a band of 950$-920$ is being witnessed with volatility.
Overall objective can be to exit long and sell on rise with a stop loss of 950$.
Support will be at 920$ and 910$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
A breakdown below 13.59$ and 13.46$ has been witnessed.
The blue color trend line has not been crossed.
Expect the 75% and 87.5% retracement level of 13.10$ and 12.57$ to be tested.
Resistance will be at 13.46$-13.59$-13.86$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
The pink color trend line has been tested and closed just below it.
Support of 66$ has been tested and it closed around it at 66.73$.
Next support is at 64.95$.
In last couple of days, Crude tested the peak of 73.4$ and the red color trend line as shown in the chart. The same trend line was violated earlier and closed lower the same day. Further it held steady for next day to finally crack yesterday to test the support of 66$.
Support is at 66$-64.95$.
A fall below the support can show a correction in Crude down.
Intra-day bounce could be seen before cracking down further.
Resistance will be at 68$-70$.
Traders who are short by chance can maintain a stop loss of 70$.
DOLLAR INDEX ::
The Dollar index based on the available data show the fall has been a corrective pattern of A-B-C which can be converted into W-X-Y pattern with Wave W complete.
The current rise can be for Wave X.
Wave X will be a corrective structure with 3 wave pattern which can get carried up towards the 102 from current level of 80.50.
The above indicated Wave structure is valid till the low of 71 is not violated.
Alternative count structure can be more bullish that what was indicated above. Corrective wave structure gets complete at 71 with A-B-C structure and new up move and impulse has already began. Minor degree Wave 1 is complete and Wave 2 is in progress.
Dollar index moved down from 121.29 (2001) to 71(2008). In the same period of the world equity indices have shown a rise had made new highs during the same period broadly.
In the same period Crude Oil also showed a rally which had directly correlation to the equity markets.
In the same way HG COPPER on Comex showed a rally in the same period from 60$ to 426$. Only difference is that made a top six month later. Similar tendency has been seen in other metals.
Conclusion
On the whole, we can see direct correlation between the financial and commodity market against the dollar index.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
VIEWS FOR 2ND JUNE 2009
MCX Gold August: Price structures are looking good for a rise towards 14750/14780 levels now. Dips to 14440/14471 to support attempts to dip. Fall below 14379 to neutralize our bullish expectations.S1: 14470 S2: 14380 R1: 14640 R2: 14750
MCX Silver September: Initial resistance is at 22342/22374 levels followed by 22582/22614 now. Directrise above 22615 to increase the chances of a rally higher towards 23525 or even higher. Fall below21655 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 21730 S2: 21500 R1: 22150 R2: 22400
MCX Copper August : Support at 239.7 held well for a rally higher. Resistance is at 253/254 levels now. Crucial support is still at 239 and an unexpected drop below this level to open the downside again.S1: 243 S2: 239 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Crude Oil July : Break below 3297 has opened the way for 3156 or even lower now. Rallies to 3374 to find strong resistance. Unexpected rise above 3437 to dent our bearish expectations.S1: 3275 S2: 3240 R1: 3335 R2: 3380
MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.20 – 75.00 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below 74.20 to negate this bullish view.S1: 74.9 S2: 73.70 R1: 76.8 R2: 77.45
MCX Lead July : Dips to 82.50 – 82.20 to find support for a move higher towards 84.50 levels now. Fall below 80.90 to negate this bullish view.S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.60 R2: 84.60
MCX Nickel July : Dips to 764 – 760 to find support for a move higher towards 815 levels now. Fall below745 to negate this bullish view. S1:762 S2:746 R1: 790 R2: 810
MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 189 – 192 to find resistance for a move lower towards 175 levels now. Rise above 194.5 to negate this bearish view.S1: 178 S2: 174 R1: 186 R2: 190
MCX Mentha Oil July: - Resistance at 510 – 512 levels. Favored view expects rallies to find resistance and move lower towards 500 levels. Rally above 516 to negate this bearish view.S1:- 502 S2:- 497 R1:- 509 R2:- 513
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The Gold Price movement for august contract is getting cramped between the two converging trend lines Support take on the red color trend line and bounce up.
Support will be at 14454-14381.
A fall and close below 14381 can bring about a further fall and a sharp fall.
In the same way the resistance of pink color trend line and the lower top of 14823 must be crossed.
Resistance will be at 14615-14823.
Traders long can take profit on rise to 14615-14823.
Sell on fall below 14381.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Support will be at 21817.
Sell on fall below 21817 with high of the day stop loss or 22131 whichever is higher.
A rise towards 22134 is possible.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 22134 and when it falls below 22134 then sell with high above 22134 as the stop loss.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
The retracement of 928$ and 922$ was tested yesterday. The low registered in last 2 trading days is 922$.
Yesterday the close was higher at 940.25$.
Resistance will be at 943$-950$.
Support will be at 922$.
A breakout and close above 950$ can bring about a rise to test back the recent peak.
A fall and close below 922$ will test back 910$ at least and can even move down towards the low of 880$ and 864$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 850$ and look to cover on dip towards 933$-922$.
Sell again below 922$.
A range of movement between 950$-922$ is being witnessed. A sustained breakout or breakdown can decide further course of price movement.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Support of 13.59$ was violated 2 days back. Yesterday it closed up at 13.74$.
Support will be at 13.61$-13.46$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$ and look to cover short positions at support of 13.61$ or below.
Sell again below 13.45$ with high of the day stop loss.
Resistance will be at 13.83$-14.13$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
A sideways movement in a band of 73.3$-66$ is likely to be witnessed. A fall and close below 66$ can bring about a correction.
On the immediate front look for rise towards 73$ to exit and take profit as the opportunity arises and re-enter long above 73.5$.
HG COPPER COMEX ::
The wave structure of the rise from 72$(2001) to 404$(2006) shows a 5 wave increase and then a corrective irregular flat pattern move down to 125$(2008). A pullback rise has been witnessed from 125$ to 245$.
Support will be at 211$.
A fall and close below 211$ will begin its down movement in form of Wave C.
Wave B of correction could get terminated at current level or on rise to 265$-297$.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!
MCX Silver September: Initial resistance is at 22342/22374 levels followed by 22582/22614 now. Directrise above 22615 to increase the chances of a rally higher towards 23525 or even higher. Fall below21655 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 21730 S2: 21500 R1: 22150 R2: 22400
MCX Copper August : Support at 239.7 held well for a rally higher. Resistance is at 253/254 levels now. Crucial support is still at 239 and an unexpected drop below this level to open the downside again.S1: 243 S2: 239 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Crude Oil July : Break below 3297 has opened the way for 3156 or even lower now. Rallies to 3374 to find strong resistance. Unexpected rise above 3437 to dent our bearish expectations.S1: 3275 S2: 3240 R1: 3335 R2: 3380
MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.20 – 75.00 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below 74.20 to negate this bullish view.S1: 74.9 S2: 73.70 R1: 76.8 R2: 77.45
MCX Lead July : Dips to 82.50 – 82.20 to find support for a move higher towards 84.50 levels now. Fall below 80.90 to negate this bullish view.S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.60 R2: 84.60
MCX Nickel July : Dips to 764 – 760 to find support for a move higher towards 815 levels now. Fall below745 to negate this bullish view. S1:762 S2:746 R1: 790 R2: 810
MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 189 – 192 to find resistance for a move lower towards 175 levels now. Rise above 194.5 to negate this bearish view.S1: 178 S2: 174 R1: 186 R2: 190
MCX Mentha Oil July: - Resistance at 510 – 512 levels. Favored view expects rallies to find resistance and move lower towards 500 levels. Rally above 516 to negate this bearish view.S1:- 502 S2:- 497 R1:- 509 R2:- 513
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The Gold Price movement for august contract is getting cramped between the two converging trend lines Support take on the red color trend line and bounce up.
Support will be at 14454-14381.
A fall and close below 14381 can bring about a further fall and a sharp fall.
In the same way the resistance of pink color trend line and the lower top of 14823 must be crossed.
Resistance will be at 14615-14823.
Traders long can take profit on rise to 14615-14823.
Sell on fall below 14381.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Support will be at 21817.
Sell on fall below 21817 with high of the day stop loss or 22131 whichever is higher.
A rise towards 22134 is possible.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 22134 and when it falls below 22134 then sell with high above 22134 as the stop loss.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
The retracement of 928$ and 922$ was tested yesterday. The low registered in last 2 trading days is 922$.
Yesterday the close was higher at 940.25$.
Resistance will be at 943$-950$.
Support will be at 922$.
A breakout and close above 950$ can bring about a rise to test back the recent peak.
A fall and close below 922$ will test back 910$ at least and can even move down towards the low of 880$ and 864$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 850$ and look to cover on dip towards 933$-922$.
Sell again below 922$.
A range of movement between 950$-922$ is being witnessed. A sustained breakout or breakdown can decide further course of price movement.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Support of 13.59$ was violated 2 days back. Yesterday it closed up at 13.74$.
Support will be at 13.61$-13.46$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$ and look to cover short positions at support of 13.61$ or below.
Sell again below 13.45$ with high of the day stop loss.
Resistance will be at 13.83$-14.13$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
A sideways movement in a band of 73.3$-66$ is likely to be witnessed. A fall and close below 66$ can bring about a correction.
On the immediate front look for rise towards 73$ to exit and take profit as the opportunity arises and re-enter long above 73.5$.
HG COPPER COMEX ::
The wave structure of the rise from 72$(2001) to 404$(2006) shows a 5 wave increase and then a corrective irregular flat pattern move down to 125$(2008). A pullback rise has been witnessed from 125$ to 245$.
Support will be at 211$.
A fall and close below 211$ will begin its down movement in form of Wave C.
Wave B of correction could get terminated at current level or on rise to 265$-297$.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
VIEWS FOR 1ST JULY 2009
MCX Gold August: Resistances at 14541-14572 to cap for a decline towards 14261. This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 14619 to cause doubts on this view. Such a rise could neutralize our bearishexpectations. S1: 14320 S2: 14250 R1: 14570 R2: 14650
MCX Silver September: Resistances at 22305/22337 to cap for a fall towards 21289. Unexpected rise above 22434 to cause doubts on our bearish view. S1: 21650 S2: 21400 R1: 22250 R2: 22500
MCX Copper June: Break below 242/243 changed the bullish picture. Any decline below 237 to drag pricesfurther lower. Resistance is at 246 followed by 250 levels now.S1: 239 S2: 236 R1: 246 R2: 249
MCX Crudeoil July:Strong resistance will be seen at 3471/3474 level now.Unexpected rise above 3520 to dent bearish expectation.S1:3295 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3415
MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.30/75.50 to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.40 levels . Rise above 76.20 to negate this bearish view S1: 73.30 S2: 72.40 R1: 75.30 R2: 76.45
MCX Lead July : Rallies to 81.40/81.55 to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.40 levels . Rise above 83.05 to negate this bearish view.S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.30 R2: 83.60
MCX Nickel July:Rally to 747/751 to find resistance for move lower toward 718 level . Rise above 764 to negate this bearish view.S1:725 S2:710 R1:760 R2:775.
MCX Naturalgas July: Rally to 192/195 to find resistance for move lower toward 183 level. Rise above 198to negate bearish view. S1:182 S2:178 R1:189 R2:192
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 14494 – 14581 with stop loss of Rs. 14624.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 14364 – 14277.
Sell more on close below Rs. 14100.
As the trend is down, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14581 and when it fall below Rs. 14581, then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14581 as a stop loss. Subsequently, cover short at Rs. 14494 – Rs. 14364 range or below.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Sell on rise to 22097-22377 with a stop loss of 22550.
Expect lower range of 21644-21364 to be tested. A bounce can come from lower range.
Volumes were larger therefore a rise and close above 25550 can mark a reversal.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
The recent peak of 73.3$ was tested and reacted down to close at 69.89$.
Traders still long can take profit or exit long position on rise to 71.6$-73.3$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 73.50$.
Support will be at 68$-66$.
A fall and close below 66$, Crude Oil can undergo a correction with a fall in price.
MCX Silver September: Resistances at 22305/22337 to cap for a fall towards 21289. Unexpected rise above 22434 to cause doubts on our bearish view. S1: 21650 S2: 21400 R1: 22250 R2: 22500
MCX Copper June: Break below 242/243 changed the bullish picture. Any decline below 237 to drag pricesfurther lower. Resistance is at 246 followed by 250 levels now.S1: 239 S2: 236 R1: 246 R2: 249
MCX Crudeoil July:Strong resistance will be seen at 3471/3474 level now.Unexpected rise above 3520 to dent bearish expectation.S1:3295 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3415
MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.30/75.50 to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.40 levels . Rise above 76.20 to negate this bearish view S1: 73.30 S2: 72.40 R1: 75.30 R2: 76.45
MCX Lead July : Rallies to 81.40/81.55 to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.40 levels . Rise above 83.05 to negate this bearish view.S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.30 R2: 83.60
MCX Nickel July:Rally to 747/751 to find resistance for move lower toward 718 level . Rise above 764 to negate this bearish view.S1:725 S2:710 R1:760 R2:775.
MCX Naturalgas July: Rally to 192/195 to find resistance for move lower toward 183 level. Rise above 198to negate bearish view. S1:182 S2:178 R1:189 R2:192
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 14494 – 14581 with stop loss of Rs. 14624.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 14364 – 14277.
Sell more on close below Rs. 14100.
As the trend is down, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14581 and when it fall below Rs. 14581, then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14581 as a stop loss. Subsequently, cover short at Rs. 14494 – Rs. 14364 range or below.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Sell on rise to 22097-22377 with a stop loss of 22550.
Expect lower range of 21644-21364 to be tested. A bounce can come from lower range.
Volumes were larger therefore a rise and close above 25550 can mark a reversal.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
The recent peak of 73.3$ was tested and reacted down to close at 69.89$.
Traders still long can take profit or exit long position on rise to 71.6$-73.3$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 73.50$.
Support will be at 68$-66$.
A fall and close below 66$, Crude Oil can undergo a correction with a fall in price.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
VIEW FOR 30TH JUNE 2009
MCX Gold August: Resistance is a 14647-14678 levels. Ideally a consolidation in the 14493-14648 zone will be followed by a rise towards 14866 levels.This is our favored view. Fall below 14337 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 14520 S2: 14420 R1: 14710 R2: 14820
MCX Silver September : Resistance is at 22636 followed by 22958 now. Break above resistances to take prices higher 23600.Supports are at 22092/22108.S1: 22050 S2: 21800 R1: 22550 R2: 22800
MCX Copper June: Rise above 247.85 looks positive for a rally towards 255/256 levels now. Favored view expects supports at 245.7 to hold for a rally higher. Fall below 242 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 244 S2: 241 R1: 253 R2: 257
MCX CrudeoilJuly: Strong resistance seen at 3521/3524 level now. A good correction from those level can be expected. S1: 3400 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525
MCX Zinc July:While above 74.50, expect price to rally toward 77.70 level. Fall below 74.50 to negate bullish view. S1:74.30 S2:73.10 R1:76.30 R2:77.45
MCX Lead July:While above 81.00 , expect price to rally toward 83.30 level. Fall below 81.00 to negate bullish view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.40 R2: 84.60
MCX Nickel July:Support at 758/755 to hold dip for rally toward 785/790 level. Fall below 740 to negate this bullish view. S1:745 S2:730 R1: 770 R2: 785
MCX Naturalgas July: Dip to 190/188 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negate this bullish view. . S1: 190 S2: 187 R1: 195 R2: 199
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
Gold is struggling at the pink color trend line.
Resistance will be at 14654-14700.
Use rise to 14654-14700 to take profit and exit long positions if any.
On fall below 14553 expect a slide down towards red color trend line.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Sell on rise to 22443-22578 with a stop loss of 22665.
Expect lower range of 22221-22210 to be tested.
If the close is below 22200 then the slide can get extended.
A bounce back up from the support is possible.
A close above 22665 can mark a near term reversal.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
Resistance will be at 943$-950$.
Traders can buy on rise above 950$ with low of the day stop loss.
Traders already holding long positions can take profit at resistance level and re-enter long on rise and close above 950$.
A correction down to 930$-922$ range is possible before attempts to cross 950$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
The blue color trend line was tested but failed to sustained and reacted down at the closing.
Support will be at 13.59$ which can be tested.
On sustained fall and close below 13.59$ the correction can get extended on the downside.
Resistance will be at 13.99$-14.4$.
A breakout and close above 14.4$ can only bring about a near term pullback rise.
Traders who are already holding long positions can look for resistance to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.4$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
Red color line is getting tested again.
The recent peak placed at 73.3$ which can be tested.
On breakout and close above 73.5$ with a positive candle can continue the rally after the short period of sideways correction.
Support will be at 70$-68$.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!!
Sunday, June 28, 2009
VIEWS FOR 29TH JUNE 2009 WITH OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE
MCX Gold August: Supports are at 14518 followed by 14409 now. Favored view expects the rally to continuehigher towards 14891 levels as long as supports hold. S1: 14550 S2: 14420 R1: 14750 R2: 14840
MCX Silver September : Important support is at 22109 now. Break below this level can take prices further lower . However, favored view expects this support to hold for a rally higher towards 23104 and then 23617 subsequently. S1: 22300 S2: 22100 R1: 22850 R2: 23200
MCX Crude Oil July : Fall below 3363 has opened the downside for 3135 levels now. Rallies to 3397 can besold for targets at 3128 stop 3485.S1: 3300 S2: 3265 R1: 3400 R2: 3445
MCX Copper June: Fall below 241.50 could increase the chances of a fall towards 236/237 levels. However,a direct rise above 247/248 to take prices higher towards 254/255 levels. S1: 241 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Zinc June: Dips to 74.60/74.30 to find support for a move higher towards 77.1 levels . Fall below 73.50to raise doubts about this view. S1: 74.30 S2: 72.10 R1: 76.30 R2: 77.45
MCX Lead June : Dips to 80.30/80.00 to find support for a move higher towards 82.75 levels . Fall below78.45 to raise doubts about this view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.70 R2: 84.60
MCX NickelJune : Dip to 739/735 to find support for move higher toward 775 level. Fall below 719 to raise doubt about this view. S1:745 S2:720 R1: 765 R2: 778
MCX NaturalGas July : ip to 194/192 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negatebullish view. S1: 194 S2: 190 R1: 199 R2: 203
TRADING STARTEGY ::
OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE ::
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell to as low as 913.2 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and rebounded. Break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We now turn cautiously bullish in gold in near term and expect further rise towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
SILVER WEEKLY OUTLOOK;-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver fell further to as low as 13.595 but hold above 61.8% retracement of 11.725 to 16.25 at 13.454 and recovered. Nevertheless, the strength of the recovery was rather unconvincing as it's limited below 14.425 minor resistance. Silver is at a junction but with 14.425 resistance intact, risk is on the downside. Another break of 13.595 will put key medium term trend line support (now at 13.00) into focus. On the upside, though, considering bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 14.425 resistance will indicate that correction from 16.25 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD serves as an important alert that whole rise from 8.4 has completed with three waves up to 16.25 already. Break of the trend line support (now at 13.00) will add much credence to this case. Further break of 11.725 will confirm and bring retest of 8.4 low. However, note that strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 14.425 resistance will save the bullish case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress. Another high above 16.25 should at least be seen before topping.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as correction, or part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.01 and was supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.01 to 21.44 at 8.123. Recent development starts to argue that rebound from 8.4 is in form of a three wave corrective structure while in turn suggest that whole correction from 21.44 is not completed yet. But after all, we'd continue to favor the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for a retest of 21.44 high as long as Silver stays above the trend line from 8.4
NYMEX WEEKLY CRUDE OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.
MCX Silver September : Important support is at 22109 now. Break below this level can take prices further lower . However, favored view expects this support to hold for a rally higher towards 23104 and then 23617 subsequently. S1: 22300 S2: 22100 R1: 22850 R2: 23200
MCX Crude Oil July : Fall below 3363 has opened the downside for 3135 levels now. Rallies to 3397 can besold for targets at 3128 stop 3485.S1: 3300 S2: 3265 R1: 3400 R2: 3445
MCX Copper June: Fall below 241.50 could increase the chances of a fall towards 236/237 levels. However,a direct rise above 247/248 to take prices higher towards 254/255 levels. S1: 241 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Zinc June: Dips to 74.60/74.30 to find support for a move higher towards 77.1 levels . Fall below 73.50to raise doubts about this view. S1: 74.30 S2: 72.10 R1: 76.30 R2: 77.45
MCX Lead June : Dips to 80.30/80.00 to find support for a move higher towards 82.75 levels . Fall below78.45 to raise doubts about this view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.70 R2: 84.60
MCX NickelJune : Dip to 739/735 to find support for move higher toward 775 level. Fall below 719 to raise doubt about this view. S1:745 S2:720 R1: 765 R2: 778
MCX NaturalGas July : ip to 194/192 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negatebullish view. S1: 194 S2: 190 R1: 199 R2: 203
TRADING STARTEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The trend line breakout attempts failed again as the close still could not be above the pink color falling trend line. Traders still holding long positions can look for rise to 14682-14752-14823 to take profit and exit long positions. Re-enter long if the close is above 14823 with a positive candle.
Immediate support will be at 14612.
A fall and close below 14612 can take the price down towards 14581-14511 range.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Resistance will be at 22885 and 22977.
The volumes registered on Friday was high and the candle movement was an inverted hammer which suggest that until the high of 22885 is not cross on the closing basis, further upside movement and momentum is unlikely to continue.
On the immediate front, traders who are by chance long on Silver can look for rise to 22818-22974 to exit and take profit. Re-enter long on further rise and close above 22977.
Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 22641.
On fall below 22641, support of 22574-22486 can be tested.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
Our expectation was that the red color trend line to be tested.
The same was witnessed on Friday. We saw the red color trend line getting test from a high of 948.2$ and reacted down to close at 938.55$.
Further up move can be witnessed only on breakout and close above 950$.
A minor correction to sideways movement is possible.
The minor correction can be of the rise from 912.90$(recent low in last 1 month) and the high of last week which is 948.2$.
The 50% and 61.8% retracement level are placed at 929$ and 913$ respectively
Broadly a sideways movement is the band of 950$-910$ is likely in near term.
Only a breakout and close above 950$ with a strong positive candle can restore the hope of the peak of 989$ to be tested.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
Expectation was that a rise towards blue color trend line would be witnessed.
The rise was witnessed as per our expectation. Silver tested the blue color trend line and reacted down to close lower.
The high registered on Friday was 14.32$ and closed at 14.07$.
Resistance will be at 14.32$-14.39$.
A breakout and close above 14.40$ can bring about a pullback rally.
Support will be at 13.89$-13.59$.
OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE ::
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell to as low as 913.2 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and rebounded. Break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We now turn cautiously bullish in gold in near term and expect further rise towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
SILVER WEEKLY OUTLOOK;-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver fell further to as low as 13.595 but hold above 61.8% retracement of 11.725 to 16.25 at 13.454 and recovered. Nevertheless, the strength of the recovery was rather unconvincing as it's limited below 14.425 minor resistance. Silver is at a junction but with 14.425 resistance intact, risk is on the downside. Another break of 13.595 will put key medium term trend line support (now at 13.00) into focus. On the upside, though, considering bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 14.425 resistance will indicate that correction from 16.25 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD serves as an important alert that whole rise from 8.4 has completed with three waves up to 16.25 already. Break of the trend line support (now at 13.00) will add much credence to this case. Further break of 11.725 will confirm and bring retest of 8.4 low. However, note that strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 14.425 resistance will save the bullish case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress. Another high above 16.25 should at least be seen before topping.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as correction, or part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.01 and was supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.01 to 21.44 at 8.123. Recent development starts to argue that rebound from 8.4 is in form of a three wave corrective structure while in turn suggest that whole correction from 21.44 is not completed yet. But after all, we'd continue to favor the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for a retest of 21.44 high as long as Silver stays above the trend line from 8.4
NYMEX WEEKLY CRUDE OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.
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