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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 21ST MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  21ST  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June: Resistances will be at 18173-18189 levels now. The picture looks quite weak now and is vulnerable to a fall towards 17728 levels while resistances cap.
S1 18090 S2 18010 R1 18230 R2 18310

 

MCX Silver July: Support at 28279 held well being trend line support. While 28231 hold, can see pullback to 29040 level for today.
S1 28370 S2 28190 R1 28710 R2 28890

 

MCX Copper June: Range trade between 307.50-308.50 and 320-321 to continue. A break above 322 to hint  bullish strength.
S1 306.65 S2 302.65 R1 313.65 R2 317.65

 

MCX Crude Oil June: Extremely oversold conditions warn of a pullback to 3400 levels while 3246 hold.
S1 3275 S2 3235 R1 3345 R2 3385

 

MCX Zinc May: Consolidation in 85-88 zone look likely. Unless range are broken either way. It is unllikely to determine clear direction.
S1 85.80 S2 85 R1 88.10 R2 91.10

 

MCX Lead May:Range trade between 79-84 look likely before clear move either way here too. However, we favor break down here as charts do not favor major upside
S1 80.30 S2 79.30 R1 82 R2 83

 

MCX Nickel May: Again a messy consolidation presently. While 973-975 hold we expect rally towards 1025 level on upside.Price could extend to 1045 too on upside on break above 1025.
S1 983.50 S2 971.50 R1 1003.50 R2:1015.50

 

MCX Natural Gas May: Support at 184-186 now. Failure to hold support to drag prices lower toward 181-183 levels.
S1 190.60 S2 186.60 R1 196.60 R2 200.60

 

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

 

Hold short positions with overall stop loss placed at 18424.

Cover short positions at 18003-17916 as the opportunity arises.

Sell on fall below 17900 with high of the day stop loss.

MACD is converging towards it triggered line. MACD sell in next couple of day can confirm a sell and sell on rise market for Gold

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY ::

 

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 28935 to hold short.

Sell on fall below 28250 with high of the day stop loss or 28935 whichever is higher.

SPOT GOLD :: 

Hold short with a stop loss of 1250$ overall for medium term.

Trading stop loss can be very tight usually inviting stop loss violation of few occasion.  Traders short can keep a stop loss of 1200$ as we can see the support being taken for the day at the blue color trend line on the latest part of the chart.

A flat pattern coming into existence of the 1250$ is not crossed in the medium term from here on which means price projection down to the 1.618 time price relation of Wave A. Wave B ended at the peak of 1250$. The projection is at 1069$-954$.

Sell on fall below 1174$ with high of the day stop loss or 1200$ whichever is higher

SPOT SILVER ::

Hold short with a stop loss of 18.30$.

Expect lower range of 17.29-16.49 can be tested and can be used to cover short positions

USD/INR SPOT ::

USD/INR is set to post its biggest weekly gain of the year. Early
trades have taken prices above the 47 mark and is fiddling with a
major resistance region although not unsurmountable. Further up,
another major resistance is seen at 47.75, which if conquered with a
few days close would give a major signal towards continuation of
the uptrend towards 51 levels. 1Prices have moved up over 7.25%
since hit an yearly low of 44.0500

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 20TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  20TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Silver July: while 28178-28257 holds, we expect a pullback towards 29440 / 29520 levels now. Direct fall below 28020 to hint at further weakness.
S1 28590 S2 28410 R1 28930 R2 29110

 

MCX Gold June: while 17920 holds, we expect 18225 to be re- tested in the coming session. Below 17920 stronger support is at 17875 followed by 17785.
S1 17950 S2 17870 R1 18100 R2 18170

 

MCX Copper June: Supports at 308.50 followed by 303 now. Favored view expects support to hold for 318.70 / 319.70 now.
S1 302.40 S2 298.40 R1 309.40 R2 313.40

 

MCX Crude Oil June: Supports at 3370 followed by 3345 should hold for a test of 3485. Fall below 3328 to dent our bullish view.
S1 3340 S2 3300 R1 3410 R2 3450

 

MCX Zinc May: Buy on the break of 87.25 s/l 85.85 tgt 89.50.
S1 85.45 S2 84.45 R1 87.25 R2 88.25

 

MCX Lead May: while 79 holds downside attempts we expect a pullback to 83 levels now.
S1 80.15 S2 79.15 R1 82 R2 83

 

MCX Nickel May: Supports at 983 followed by 976 now. Ideally, supports to hold for a corrective rise to 1025 levels.
S1 983.50 S2 971.50 R1 1003.50 R2:1015.50

 

MCX Natural Gas May: Ideally,185-187 level to hold for test of 200 level or even higher. Direct fall below 185 to dent bullish view
S1 191 S2 187 R1 197 R2 201

 

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY :: 

 

RSI has exited the overbought zone.

We had indicated to sell on rise to 18060-18202. The high registered yesterday was 18291 and closed at 18000. Traders who managed to sell as indicated had the opportunity to benefit.

Exit long and sell on rise to 18089-18202 with overall stop loss placed at 18424.

Sell further on fall below 17900 with high of the day stop loss

 

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 29540 to hold short.

Cover short positions on dip to 28418-27572 as the opportunity arises.

Sell on rise to 28927-29264 with a stop loss of 29540.

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 72.5$

Cover short positions on dip to 69.73$ or below as the opportunity arises.

Sell on fall below 67.8$ with high of the day stop loss. A rise and close above 72.50$ can show a near term reversal for a pullback.

 

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Exit long positions and sell on rise to 4.21$-4.29 with a stop loss of 4.50$. Expect lower range of 4.08$-3.87$ to be tested.

Buy on breakout and close above 4.50$.

 

SPOT GOLD ::

Hold short if any with overall stop loss of 1229. We had indicated to sell below 1200$ and the low registered yesterday was 1186.92$.

Traders who managed to sell had the opportunity to benefit.

Sell on rise to 1201-1216 with a stop loss of 1229. Expect lower range of 1176$-1135$ to be tested. The blue color trend line can offer support which is in the range of 1176$-1155$

SPOT SILVER  ::

 

We had indicated to Sell on fall below 18.62$ with high of the day stop loss. The low registered yesterday was 17.93$. Traders who managed to sell had the opportunity to benefit.

Hold short with a stop loss of 19.10$.

Sell on rise to 18.35$-18.764 with a stop loss of 19.10$.

Expect lower range of 17.74$-16.72$ to be tested and can be used to cover short positions. 

 

NOTE ::

Even as investors remain broadly positive on Gold, technical outlook is turning increasingly vulnerable atleast for the near term. We had discussed on expanding trading ranges . Incidentally Comex Gold Futures' open interest have gone up to a record peak as of May 17th, to 600000. This is a confirmed signal of MAJOR VOLATILITY. Also note that Comex June Future's first notice falls on May 28th indicating that if prices were to peak by end of month, the falls would be huge. Taking into account, the usual massive long liquidation spree normally seen around comex expiry, it is highly advisable to be EXTREMELY careful on the long side. MCX prices may appear bouyant due to weakening Rupee against US Dollar. On a cautious note, intraday longs are advised to be closed out on the same day. Overnight long positions are advised only if prices stay above $1227

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 19TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  19TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June: While below 18127 we could see a drift lower towards 17685 or even 17538. Direct rise above 18127 would negate this view and see next resistance at 18319.
S1 17940 S2 17860 R1 18080 R2 18160

MCX Silver July: A breach of immediate support at 28655 could see a move lower to 28346 levels now. Rallies could find resistance at 29270/29425.Break above 29501 would rekindle some bullish hopes.
S1 29085 S2 28905 R1 29425 R2 29605

MCX Copper June: Rallies could be capped at 308/310 levels for a move lower again. Support is at 297 levels now and a direct fall below the same could see a move towards 291. Rise above 313 would negate this view.
S1 301.70 S2 297.70 R1 308.70 R2 312.70

MCX Crude Oil June: While below resistance at 3413/3446 we could see a drift lower towards 3273 levels now. Break above 3460 would negate this view. S1 3320 S2 3280 R1 3390 R2 3430 MCX Zinc May: Support at 83.50. Breach of it could see move lower toward 80 levels now. Rally could cap at 86.80 level now. S1 85.65 S2 84.65 R1 87.45 R2 88.45 MCX Lead May:Support at 80-79. Break below 79 would see weakness toward 76 level. Rallies could be capped at 83 levels now. S1 81.70 S2 80.70 R1 83.50 R2 84.50 MCX Nickel May: While below 1010-1015 price could drift lower again toward 940 level. Direct rise above 1015 would negate view. S1 986 S2 974 R1 1006 R2:1018 MCX Natural Gas May: Supports at 195-193 level.Break of 193 could drift lower to 187 level. On the other hand rally could cap at 202/203 level. S1 197 S2 193 R1 203 R2 207 MCX GOLD TRADING STARTEGY :: RSI has started showing negative divergence and the effect of the same is being witnessed in the Gold price now.  Exit long positions on rise to 18110-18205-18539. If the close is above 18424 with a positive candle then re-enter long positions. Sell on fall below 17916 with high of the day stop loss. Sell on rise to 18060-18205 with a stop loss of 18424. Expect lower range of 17871-17537 to be tested MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :: Yesterday, we had indicated that contrarian traders can take chances to sell at 29534-29875 with a s top loss of 30163.  The high registered yesterday was 29540 and closed at 29255. Traders who managed to sell had the opportunity to benefit. Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 29540 to hold short. Cover short positions on dip to 29242-28930 as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 28930 with high of the day stop loss NYMEX CRUDE :: Hold short if any with a stop loss of 72.5$ Sell on rise to 70.28-71.65$ with a stop loss of 72.5$. Expect lower range of 68.04$-64.43$ to be tested and can be used to cover short positions. NATURAL GAS :: Traders holding long positions can Exit long positions on rise to 4.38$-4.46$-4.66$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long if the close is above 4.50$. Expect minor correction to sideways movement. Lower range of 4.26$-4.06$ can be tested. USD/INR SPOT :: Early trades have hit the first bullish target of 45.89, that was on discussion yesterday. With prices keeping afloat above 45.39 for a third day, positive bias is maintained. As long as prices do not fall back below 45.6 a solid move towards 46.9 is in store now SPOT  GOLD :: Gold has reacted down from the red color trend line as shown in the chart. Hold short if any with overall stop loss of 1240 and cover the same on dip to 1206-1200 as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 1200 with high of the day stop loss SPOT  SILVER :: Sell on fall below 18.62$ with high of the day stop loss. Traders holding long positions can exit long on rise to 19.13$-19.59 Overall exit long and sell on rise to 19.13$-19.59$ with a stop loss of 19.79$. Major rally can come into existence on rise and close above 19.80$.

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 18TH MAY 2010

MCX Gold June: Important support at 18152 levels now.A breach of the same could see a corrective fall towards 17795 or even 17705 levels.Resistance lies at followed by 18540. Break above 18540 could spark another rally in prices.
S1 18190 S2 18110 R1 18330 R2 18410

MCX Silver July: A breach of support at 29067 could see a move lower to 28600 levels now. As long as 29067 hold we could expect a rally to resistance at 29937-30092.
S1 29225 S2 29045 R1 29565 R2 29745

MCX Copper June: While above supports at 296-293 we can expect a corrective rally towards 305 or even 310 levels now.Prices could be capped here for a move lower again.
S1 294.60 S2 290.60 R1 301.60 R2 305.60

MCX Crude Oil May: Important supports at 3158 / 3135 could hold the downside for a corrective rally towards resistance at 3315 / 3360 levels.A break below 3130 could open the downside for  3040 levels now.
S1 3185 S2 3145 R1 3255 R2 3295

MCX Zinc May:While above 83.50, expect corrective rally toward 90.00 level now.Direct fall below 83.50 could see 81.20 level.
S1 84.40 S2 83.40 R1 86.20 R2 87.20

MCX Lead May:While above 79.00 we can expect corrective rally toward 85.00 levels now. Direct fall below 79.00 could see 77
S1 79 S2 78 R1 80.80 R2 81.80

MCX Nickel May:As long as 933 levels holds the downside we could see prices rise in correction towards 980/990 where they could be capped for a move lower again Direct fall below 933 to see 910 levels
S1 939 S2 927 R1 959 R2:971

MCX Natural Gas May: As long as supports at 196-193 hold prices could attempt to test resistance at 206 followed by 209 levels
S1 197 S2 193 R1 203 R2 207

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 18128.

RSI has started showing negative divergence as it is lower than the peak and price made a new high of the rise.  It has tested the earlier contract peak of 18415. Therefore, at higher range profit booking pressure can be witnessed.  

Gold tested the contract peak of 18415 by making a high of 18424 and reacted down to close at 18253.

Overall use rise to 18276-18401-18674 on intra-day spike to book profits. Re-enter long if the close is above 18424 with a positive candle. Check only at the time of closing, If the price is above it at the closing time then only re-enter long.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

Exit long positions on rise to 29534-29875-30682.

Contrarian traders can take chances to sell at 29534-29875 with a s top loss of 30163. In order to reduce risk try to sell as higher range of 29875 or above or near 30163 after looking at the market movement.

Expect lower range of 29068-28261 to be tested.

A near term sideways to corrective movement down is likely to be witnessed. Therefore, profit booking on the long positions is generally advisable.

Only a breakout and close above 30163 can accelerate the upside movement with momentum

SPOT GOLD ::

 

Traders who are holding long positions can Exit long positions on the rise to 1227-1237-1261$ as the opportunity arises.

Re-enter long if the close is above 1250$. Check at the time of closing. If the price is above 1250$ with a positive candle then re-enter long.

A near term sideways movement to minor correction is possible.

SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long and sell on rise to 19.04$-19.34$ with a  stop loss of 19.80$.
Fresh long can be undertaken on breakout and close above 19.80$.
Expect lower range of 18.56%-17.78$ to be tested.

USD/INR  SPOT ::

With prices keeping afloat above 45.39 for a second day, bullish bias remains strong and our view remains same as that of the previous day. Look for a close above 45.6 for signals of continuation of uptrend which should now target 45.89 or even 46.9

TECHNICAL TALKS ::

Bargain hunting provides floor at 1216 level for a second day leading to the possibility of an vicious turn higher. However, the support region has emerged earlier than normally seen in the case of turns from life time peaks. To this extent, even as 1216 looks formidable, a break of the same looks very much probable. Even in such scenario, prices would continue to stay within the broadening wedge pattern on discussion yesterday. Ranges should expand now and solid buying is unlikely to emerge unless prices dip towards 1200 or prices move past 1250 convincingly.

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 17TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  17TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June: Supports at 17975/17931. As long as 17931 holds the downside we can expect price to consolidate and move higher towards 18417 or even 18505 level Fall below 17931 to lead to greater corrective decline.
S1 18095 S2 18015 R1 18235 R2 18315

 

MCX Silver July: Important supports at 29270 / 29180 levels. Dips to these levels could find support for a move higher again towards 30740 levels.Failure to hold support could take it lower to 28575 / 28420.
S1 29490 S2 29310 R1 29830 R2 30010

 

MCX Copper June: Any rallies to 312 followed by 316 could find resistance for a move lower to 305 followed by 300 levels now.Only a rise above 317 would negate this view.
S1 309 S2 305 R1 316 R2 320

 

MCX Crude Oil May: Important support at 3148 / 3112 could hold the downside for a corrective rally toward 3289 / 3334 levels where prices could find resistance for a move lower again. A break below 3107 could open the downside for 3017 levels now.
S1 3230 S2 3190 R1 3300 R2 3340

 

MCX Zinc May: Any rallies to 93.00 could find resistance for move lower toward 90.00 or even 88.70 levels now. Break above 94 would cause doubt about this view.
 S1 90 S2 89 R1 92 R2 93

 

MCX Lead May: Any rallies to 89.50/90.50 could find resistance for a move lower towards 84 levels now. Break above 91.50 would cause doubts about this view.
S1 85.45 S2 84.45 R1 87.25 R2 88.25

 

MCX Nickel May:  Rallies to 998 followed by 1012 to find resistance for a move lower towards 940 or even 920 levels now.Direct rise above 1024 to cause doubts about this view.
S1 963 S2 951 R1 983 R2:995

 

MCX Natural Gas May: Supports in the 193-190 zone to offer good support for a rally towards 203-205 levels now.
S1 194 S2 190 R1 200 R2 204

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STARTERGY ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 17897.   

RSI has started showing negative divergence as it is lower than the peak and price made a new high of the rise. Therefore, at higher range profit booking pressure can be witnessed.  

The historical peak was at 18415 and very near to it with recent high of 18339.

Overall use rise to 18342-18690 to book profits.

If the close is above 18415 with positive candle then rally can extend even against the negative divergence but sustainability is a question mark

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STARTERGY ::

Exit long positions on rise to 29787-30073-30898 as the opportunity arises.

Re-enter long only if the close is above 30125 with positive candle.

Support will be at 29248-29300.

A fall and close below 29300 will begin a correction.

A likely formation of double top could be in place if the correction begins.

The historical peak is at 30001 for the contract and the same has been tested.

On continuous Silver chart, the historical peak of 29580 has been crossed and the close also has been above it on the weekly chart. On the continuous chart, the weekly close was 29658

    

 USD/INR SPOT ::

With prices keeping afloat above 45.39 bullish bias remains strong. Look for a close above 45.6 for signals of continuation of uptrend which should now target 45.89 or even 46.9 

 

SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long positions and take profit on rise to 19.49$-19.65-20.38$ as the opportunity arises.

Re-enter long if the close is above 19.80$ with a positive white candle.

Traders still long can keep the stop loss at 18.94$.

 

SPOT  GOLD ::

Traders can exit long positions and book profits on rise to 1242-1248$-1277$.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken only on breakout and close above 1250$ supported by a positive candle.

Traders still long can keep the stop loss at 1219$.