TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GOLD SILVER AND CRUDE FOR NEAR TERM

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:- Comex Gold (GC)
Gold rally resumes and reaches as high as 978.5 so far today. Break of 967.6 resistance confirms that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. And further rally should now be seen to retest 1007.7/1033.9 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 945.4 support will suggest that a short term top is formed and turn outlook neutral.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact

COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver rises further to as high as 15.58 today so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 15.125 minor support holds. Current rally is expected to extend to 16.08 medium term support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 15.125 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 14.306 support is needed to indicate that Silver has topped out. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bullish.
In the bigger picture, with Silver staying above 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, rise from 8.4 is treated as either part of the consolidation from 21.44 or resumption of the long term up trend. Hence, current rise is expected to extend further into resistance zone at 16.05 and 19.55, with prospect of retesting 21.44 high. We'd hold on to this bullish view as long as 11.725 support holds
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rises further to as high as 66.36 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 64.66 minor support holds. Current rally is expected to extend further to 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.29) next. On the downside, below 64.66 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 59.61 support is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress with crude oil staying well inside rising channel and above 55 days EMA. There is no sign of topping yet and such rally is still in favor to continue. Nevertheless, the main question remains on whether such rebound is resuming the long term up trend or is it merely correction to the fall from 147.27. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as crude oil stays above channel support and further rally to 55 weeks EMA at 67.33 and 55 months EMA at 68.85 is still in favor even in case of pull back. However, note that failure to sustain above the mentioned EMAs, followed by break of the channel support, will suggest that rise from 33.2 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of 33.2 low.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas' rebound from 3.388 is much stronger than expected but after all, upside is still limited by 61.8% retracement of 4.575 to 3.388 at 4.120. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. Below 3.821 minor support will suggest that rebound from 3.388 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for this low first. On the upside, though, firm break of 4.120 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 4.575 is merely a correction to rise from 3.155 and will bring retest of this resistance.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment as rebound from 3.155 might have completed at 4.575 already. Below 3.388 will affirm the case that such rise is merely a correction in the larger down trend. Break of 3.155 low will target 3.0 psychological support next, with prospect of further weakness to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. On the upside break of break of 4.575 will revive the case the natural gas has bottomed out in medium term and bring rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18. (FOR TRADING RECOMMANDATION IN MCX AND PHYSCAL TRADE CONTACT US ON PHONE OR MESSENGER ENJOY TRADING)

VIEWS FOR 25TH MAY 2009

VIEW FOR THE WEEK ::
MCX Gold June: Immediate support is at 14485 followed by 14409/14424 levels . A possibility of a decline to 14256 also looks likely.Favored view expects support in the 14409 zone to hold for a test of 14745 or even higher.S1: 14450 S2: 14350 R1: 14650 R2: 14765

MCX Silver July : Supports are at 22576 followed by 22359/22390 now.Favored view expects a test of 23712 or even higher as long as 22265/22298 supports attempts to decline.S1: 22535 S2: 22340 R1: 22775 R2: 23000

MCX Copper June: Strong resistance will be seen at 226.40/227.45 levels now. Big picture confirms a possible test of 247.35 or even higher towards 256.70 levels as long as 212.0/213.0 levels hold support. Fall below 210.65 to dent our bullish view.S1: 215 S2: 213 R1: 223 R2: 227

MCX Crude Oil June : A push above 2951 could lead it to 3019. Supports near 2826 or 2776 could hold dips during the week for a push above 2949.This is the favored view. Fall below 2741 would be a sign of weakness. Next supports are at 2713 2675.S1: 2875 S2: 2825 R1: 2935 R2: 3000

MCX Lead May : Down moves are likely to find support at 66.3 levels. Moves below this can take it further lower towards 64.3 levels.Direct rise above 68.4 to negate our bearish view. S1: 66.8 S2: 65.3 R1: 68.4 R2: 70.2

MCX Zinc May : Strong support is seen in the range of 67.6 67.9. Down move are likely to find support at these levels.Direct rise above 70.8 to strengthen bullishness. S1: 67.9 S2: 66.6 R1: 70.85 R2: 71.7

MCX Nickel May : Favored view expects prices to move further down towards 580 support levels before rising higher towards 615 levels.S1:580 S2:565 R1: 610 R2: 621

MCX Natural Gas June : Strong support seen at 168 165 levels to hold dips for a move above 175 levels.Fall below it can take prices towards 160 levels. S1: 168 S2: 166 R1: 174 R2: 179

TRADING STRATIGIES FOR THE DAY::

GOLD MCX JUNE ::

Resistance of 14577 will be tested. Further need to be seen if it can sustain.
Trend line resistance are lying overhead.
First trend line resistance is from the broken trend line and next is of the falling lower tops as shown in the chart.
The trend is down has the price is below the average and daily reversal value. The rise is termed as a pull back.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 14577 and when it falls below 14577 then sell to cover at 14517-14463 range as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall and close below 14456 with high of the day stop loss or 14577 whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.

SILVER MCX JULY ::

Overall sideways movement within the band of 23181 to 21632 is being witnessed.
Immediate support is at 22648-22407-22376.
Resistance will be at 22919-23160
Corrective dip to 22648-22407 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 22375 and look for rise to 22919-23160 above to take profit.
Recent high of 23181 is the near term target. On close above 23181, the rally could get extended.


INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Support will be at 949$.
Resistance will be at 961$-969$.
Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 949$.
Fresh trading long position can be undertaken above 962$


INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Support will be at 14.54$-14.4$.
Resistance will be at 14.84$.
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 14.4$.
Fresh trading buy can be undertaken above 14.54$. Subsequently, expect 14.9$ to be tested.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!
MUNNABHAI ANALYST
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