VIEW FOR 10TH FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

EXPECTATION  FOR  10TH  FEB, 2010

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MCX Gold April: A, pullback, which we have been waiting for has materialized
to 16404/16435 levels as per expectations. We expect prices to rise towards
16560 levels now, only a break of 16600 can give way for further bullish moves.
S1: 16235 S2: 16188 R1: 16420 R2: 16580.

 

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MCX Silver March: As expected a break of 24356 took prices towards 24785-24865
levels. Support at 24373/24387 to hold for 24976. This is our favored expectation.
 Only a fall below 23848 will force us to abandon our bullish view.
S1: 24385 S2: 24255 R1: 24645 R2: 24775.

 

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MCX Copper Feb: Strong resistance will be seen at 310/312 levels now. While
below this levels we could see a corrective decline towards 301/302 levels now.
S1: 303.60 S2: 301.40 R1: 308 R2: 310.80.

 

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistance will be quite strong in the 3450-3497 zones.
Expect prices to get capped here for a decline towards 3125 ideally.
Strong support will be seen at 3373 now.
S1: 3396 S2: 3356 R1: 3476 R2: 3516.

 

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MCX Zinc Feb: As expected we saw a sharp pullback towards 98.00 levels.
Dips to be cushioned in the 96-96.50 zones for a test of 100.25.Fall below
95.40 to dent our bullish exp.
S1: 96.40 S2: 94.40 R1: 100.40 R2: 102.40.

 

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MCX Lead Feb: Supports are at 94.68 followed by 93.80. Supports could hold
for a test of 97.35-50.
S1: 93.40 S2: 91.40 R1: 97.40 R2: 99.40.

 

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MCX Nickel Feb: Strong resistance will be seen in the 830-31 zone now break of
this level will once again take prices higher towards 865-75 zone.
Supports are at 813-815.
S1: 815 S2: 809 R1: 829 R2: 834.

 

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MCX Natural Gas Feb: Rallies to 253-54 levels to be sold for a target of 235,
stop at 259.
S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 254 R2: 260

 

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INTERNATIONAL :: 

SPOT GOLD:-

 

Yesterday’s buy above 1079$ got triggered. Use rise to 1086$-1095$ to take profit.

Support will be at 1064$-1052$.

A minor pullback is being witnessed which can carry towards the red color line before a further slide.

Only a rise and close above 1125$ can bring about a reversal.

 

 

SPOT SILVER :

 

Exit short for the time being.

Expect higher range of 15.6$-15.95$ to be tested.

Corrective dip to 15.3$-15$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14.92$.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16383.

Intra-day traders can wait for rise above 16393 and when it falls below 16393 then sell with high above 16393 as the stop loss.

Support will be at 16220.

Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.

 The 14 day RSI is showing intention to move higher but price not yet supporting convincing

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-

 

Cover short positions on dip to 24428 or below as the opportunity arises.

Expect a rise towards the resistance of 24731-24948.

The 14 day RSI is trying to move up. ADX is also moving up still and when it turns then that can show short covering process.

Sell on fall below 24124 with high of the day stop loss

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-

 

A recovery was seen yesterday.

Expect volatility to be seen in the band of 78$-68$ in near term.

RSI is trying to move up therefore a rise towards 76$ is possible.

Corrective dip to 72$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 70.

VIEWS FOR 9TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Supports are at 16160/16206 to hold for rise towards 16573/16603 levels now. Fall below 16069 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 16196 S2: 16116 R1: 16356 R2: 16436.   MCX Silver March: Crucial support is at 23990 and while above here we can expect a pullback towards 25547 levels. However, break below 23943 to drag prices lower towards 22626 ideally. S1: 24101 S2: 23971 R1: 24361 R2: 24492.   MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 295.30/296.30 to hold for a pullback towards 312/314 levels now. Fall below 292.20 could dent our bullish expectations. S1: 297 S2: 293 R1: 305 R2: 309.   MCX Crude Oil Feb: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3175 or even 3105. Resistance levels are spread between 3406 / 3448.It has to rise past 3505 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3324 S2: 3284 R1: 3404 R2: 3444.   MCX Zinc Feb: Supports at 93.75 followed by 93.10 to hold for 96.25 or 97.80. Fall below 92.30 will force us to abandon our bullish expectations. S1: 92.40 S2: 90.40 R1: 96.40 R2: 98.40   MCX Lead Feb:  Rise above 93.75 / 93.85 will reinforce bullish expectations for 97.45 / 97.50.    S1: 90.20 S2: 88.20 R1: 94.20 R2: 96.20.   MCX Nickel Feb: Supports at 795 / 800 to hold well for a test of 825 levels. Fall below 795 could hint at a weakness. S1: 801 S2: 792 R1: 818 R2: 826.   MCX Natural Gas Feb: Fall below 250 to confirm further weakness towards 235 levels or even lower. S1: 248 S2: 242 R1: 264 R2: 272     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::   Resistance will be at 1074$-1078$. Sell on rise to 1066-1070$ with a stop loss of 1078$. Sell on fall below 1060$ with high of the day stop loss.     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::     Keep a stop loss of 15.4$ to hold short. Cover short positions on dip from current price to 14.6$. A rise and close above 15.4$ can bring about a near term pullback.     NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::    Sell on rise to 5.51$ or above with a stop loss of 5.7$. Buy on rise above 5.7$ with low of the day stop loss.     NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 74$. Cover the same on dip from current price to 68.5$ as the opportunity rises. Expect volatility in the range of 78.1$-68$.     TRADING  STRATEGY  ::   GOLD  MCX  APRIL  ::    Expect higher range of 16370-16421 to be tested. Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 16370 and when it falls below 16370 then sell with high above 16370 as the stop loss. Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 25000. Look for dip to 24221 or below to cover short position. Sell on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss. If the stop loss and resistance of 25000 is crossed on closing basis then we could find a pullback rise towards 26000.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 8TH FEBRUARY 2010

VIEWS  FOR  THE  WEEK  STARTING  FROM  8TH  FEBRUARY 2010

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MCX Gold April: Price could rise in correction towards 16627/16688 area before next decline towards 15868 chances of an extension to 16871/16843 also looks likely.

S1: 16206 S2: 16126 R1: 16366 R2: 16446. 

 

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MCX Silver March: Supports at 23750/24070 to hold for a test of 24340-24520 or even higher before the next decline towards 23158 or ideally 22585/21927. Rise above 25300 could neutralise our bearish expectations S1: 24020 S2: 23730 R1: 24454 R2: 24585

 

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MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 300/297 to hold for a pullback towards 317/319 levels now.

Fall below 296.85 could dent our bullish expectaions. S1: 296 S2: 292 R1: 304 R2: 308

 

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MCX Crude Oil December: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3232 or even 3160. Resistance levels are spread between 3466 / 3510. It has to rise past  3567 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3334 S2: 3425 R1: 3545 R2: 3585.

 

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MCX Nickel Feb: Could find resistance at 816/819 levels now. A break of 800 can create panic selling pressure towards 780 levels. This is our favored view. While below 816 target 804 and 784. Unexpected break of 826 can change this bearish expectations.

S1:804 S2:786 R1: 816 R2: 826

 

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MCX Lead Feb: Ideally resisitance at 93.75 could drag prices again to 90.50 or even to 85 levels now. While below 94.10 target 92/91.Break above 96 can change this bearish picture. S1: 92 S2: 90.70 R1: 94.10 R2: 96.10.

 

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MCX Zinc Feb: while trading below 95.60 levels sell for a target of 92. Break of 96 can negate this bearish view. S1: 92.10 S2: 91.50 R1: 95.90 R2: 97.30.

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::

 

A minor pullback to 1075$-1084$ can be used.
For the time being traders can cover short positions at 1059$-1043$.

Sell again on fall below 1043$ with high of the day stop loss

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

 Cover short positions at current level or below.
Sell further on fall below 14.6$.

Resistance will be at 15.4$.

A minor pullback is possible for immediate near term if the low of 14.6$ is not violated.

Expect higher range of 15.47$-15.8$ to be tested.

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::

 

A range bound movement in the band of 6.10$-5$ continues.
Expect trading up move on rise and close above 5.6$.

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::

 

Cover short positions if any from current level to 68$ as the opportunity arises or hold short with a stop loss of 74$.
Resistance will be at 72.5$-74$. Support will be at 68$.

 

LEAD  LME  ::

 

The retracement of 1977$ has been tested last week.
Support will be at 1915$.

On further fall below 1915$, expect a slide towards 1760$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 1549$.

Resistance will be at 2175$-2265$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 24555 and cover the same at current price and on dip to 24222-24103.
Sell further on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss.

Expect higher range of 24443-24561 to be tested.

ADX is moving higher a shown in the chart therefore the downside momentum could still be in place.

 

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL  :: 

 

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 16244-16172 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below 15963 with high of the day stop loss.

A positive divergence on 14 day RSI is being witnessed now therefore if the low of 15963 is not violated from here on then we could see a near term pullback rise at least.

Sell further on fall and close below 15963 with high of the day stop loss. Higher range of 16357-16429 could be tested.

 

USD INR  :: 

 

A breakout has been witnessed. In our expect updates, our expectation was towards near term weaker rupee and the same has been witnessed.
Resistance will be at 46.9-47.10$.

A further breakout and close above 47.10$ can bring about a rally for Dollar.

Support for Dollar will be at 46-45.9.

Broadly a wider range of 47.10-45 and if a breakout is witnessed further in near term then significant weakness could be seen in Rupee. Expect resistance and profit booking on Dollar at 47.