Friday, April 3, 2009

views for 3 rd april

MCX Gold June: Rallies to 14770/14800 to resist for a fall towards 14345 or even lower.This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 14900/14915 to dent our bearish expectations. S1: 14630 S2: 14345 R1: 14800 R2: 14920

MCX Silver May: Immediate resistance is at 21800 now. Structure looks bullish for a test of 22030 or even higher towards 22280/22295 as long as import support at 21215 holds.S1: 21460 S2: 21180 R1: 22050 R2: 22450

MCX Copper April: Market showing some corrective signs. Immediate support is at 206 followed by crucial support at 203/204.Ideally we expect supports to hold for a test of 213/214 levels. Fall below 202 to lessen the magnitude of the rise again. S1: 206 S2: 201 R1: 213 R2: 218

MCX Crude Oil April : Supports are at 2570/2580 levels now. Favored view expects this zone to provide good support and rally towards 2725 or even higher. Fall below 2540 to alter the bullish picture and unexpected fall below 2520 could change our bullish view to bearish.S1: 2570 S2: 2500 R1: 2650 R2: 2725

MCX Zinc April: Supports are now at 65.9/66.0.Above this level prices are likely to move up towards 68/68.5 levels.Direct fall below 65.85 will cause doubts about this view. S1: 65.9 S2: 64.9 R1: 66.8 R2: 67.45
MCX Nickel April: Dips to 518/520 levels could find support for a move higher towards 540 levels now.A fall below 515 would negate this view.S1: 521 S2: 512 R1: 534 R2: 540

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD VIEW :In our yesterday’s update, a sell was indicated on fall below 916$. The low registered yesterday was 893.7$. Traders who have been able to sell as indicated had the opportunity to benefit.
Resistance now will be at 908$-916$.
Expect lower range of 894$-882$-973$ to be tested.
Spurt to resistance could be used to sell.
A close above 930$ with a positive candle can only halt the fall generally.
Since yesterday movement was large, we could find some sideways movement within the yesterday price range of 930$-893$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER VIEW:In our yesterday’s update, we had indicated that selling pressure could be witnessed below 12.82$.
The low registered yesterday was 12.56$ but recovered and closed at 12.92$.
Support is being witnessed at lower range of 12.59$-12.56$.
Expect further selling pressure on fall and close below 12.56$.
A rising channel from the low of 8.7$ to 14.63$ has been violated but it just trying to hold on to the lower channel line. Recovery after breakdown is being witnessed thereby has managed to remain around the lower channel line.
If the close is below 12.56$ then expect a slide

NYMEX CRUDE OIL VIEW:A strong bounce back has been witnessed.
In last few week, attempt for breakout and close above 50.50$ has been witnessed.
Crude went up to 54.66$ and reacted down to 47.26$. It is now back up to 52.64$.
Resistance will be at 54$-56$.
Resistance will be tested.
In case of further breakout and close above 56$ in days to come then expect a rise towards 64$.
As a result of the large up move yesterday. Corrective dip to 51.3$-49.8$ can be used for buying.

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:Trend is down therefore general objective will be to sell and indentify sell opportunities.
Sell on rise to 14773-14988 with a stop loss of 15070.
Intra-day traders to minimize risk can wait for a rise above 14773 or 14988 and when it falls below 14773 or 14988 then sell with high above 14773 or 14988 as the stop loss.
A rising Raff Regression channel of the rise from 11650 to 16035 has been violated yesterday with volumes.
Therefore, yesterday low will be important and could just hold the fall for a day or two before further attempts for a follow up of the breakdown.
A close above yesterday high can momentarily halt the fall subsequently for few days and can make further attempt to test higher range.
Expect selling pressure on further fall and close below 14558

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY:A recovery from the low has been witnessed.
The low registered yesterday was 21075.
Cover short positions for the time being at 21551-21075 range as the opportunity arises.
Sell further on fall and close below 21075.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 21954 and when it falls below 21954 then sell with high above 21954 as the stop loss.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

views and trading stratergy for 2nd april

MCX Gold June: As expected we saw a rise towards 15125-15195 levels. Supports are at 14946
followed by 14850 now. Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 15220 or even higher.
Unexpected fall below 14830 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1:14970 S2:14885 R1:15190 R2:15260
MCX Silver May: Resistances are at 21990/22025 followed by 22310/22360 levels.Important support is at
21440/21470. Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 22630 or even higher.S1: 21460 S2: 21180 R1: 22050 R2: 22450
MCX Copper April: Supports are at 201 levels now. As long as crucial support at 196 remains
undisturbed we expect the bullishness to continue and rally higher towards 217/218 levels.S1: 201 S2: 196 R1: 210 R2: 218
MCX Crude Oil April : Rally above 2460 has opened the way for bullishness again. Resistances
are at 2545 followed by 2570. Supports are at 2420 followed by 2400. Unexpected fall below 2375
to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 2400 S2: 2375 R1: 2525 R2: 2560
MCX Zinc April: Supports are now at 64.9.Unable to hold this support may take prices further down
to 63.6 levels.Direct rise above 66.8 may take prices to 68 levels where it can find resistance. S1: 65.85 S2: 64.9 R1: 66.7 R2: 67.45
MCX Lead April: Strong supports are at 62.7 and 60.3 levels.Prices are likely to test support at 60.3.
If support at 62.7 holds prices may move up towards 65.6 levels.S1: 62.7 S2: 60.3 R1: 63.95 R2: 65.6
MCX Nickel April: Dips to 507/509 levels could find support for a move higher towards 524 levels now.
A fall below 509 would negate this view.S1: 510 S2: 502 R1: 518 R2: 525
MCX Natural Gas April : -. Prices have found support at 186/187 levels. Close above 198 may initiate up
rallies towards 205/208 levels. Moves below 186 may take prices further down to 180 levels. S1: 186 S2: 182 R1: 192 R2: 198

mcx gold trading stratergy:The trend is down but a short-covering is likely to be witnessed.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15040 – Rs. 14985 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 14937.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15193 and when it falls below Rs. 15193 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15193 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15089 – Rs. 14985 range or below.

mcx silver trading stratergy:The trend is down.
Sell on fall below Rs. 21587 with stop loss of Rs. 22141.
Add more on fall below Rs. 21250.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 21954 and when it falls below Rs. 21954 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 21954 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 21771 – Rs. 21551 range or below

nymex crude;
Nymex Crude Last 48.95
Prices are still held within the bearish channel, but dips
to 48.2 is likely to offer a chance to accumulate and
attempt a break of 49.7/50.2 region above which we can
expect a free move up towards 52


Comex Copper Last 1.88
Broad trend is BULLISH targetting $2, however 1.882/5
may prove challenging. Anticipation of a poor NFP data
could cap gains.
BUY DIPS


GOLDspot: Last 927
Initial moves are likely to take support at 924 and attempt another go at breaking the
933/935 level, which is looking formidable now. If this region gives away 939-943 should
attract prices, but rallies are unlikely to evolve unless 951/967 are broken.Meanwhile,
tendency to take prices lower would be alive as ECB is expected to cut rates by 50bps and
announcement unconventional policy measures. Possibility of such a downside move would
evolve once 919 gives away.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

views as on 1-04-2009

MCX Gold June: Rise above 15095/15110 could indicate strength for a test of 15225/15258 or even higher. Important support is in the 14850/14880 region. Direct fall below 14850 to indicate weakness again. S1: 14970 S2: 14885 R1: 15225 R2: 15305
MCX Silver May: Supports are at 21550/21635 levels. Favored view expects supports to hold for a test of 22395 or even higher.Fall below 21365 could indicate weakness. S1: 21640 S2: 21365 R1: 22225 R2: 22750
MCX Copper April: Supports are at 201 levels now. As long as crucial support at 196 remains undisturbed we expect the bullishness to continue and rally higher towards 217/218 levels.S1: 201 S2: 196 R1: 210 R2: 218
MCX Crude Oil April : Resistance at 2495 or max 2525 could cap for formation of a downturn. Next decline could aim for 2357 or even 2290.Rise above 2510 would hint that we might get the decline. Instead price could start recovering towards 2535 or 2560, further lessening the bearishness.S1: 2450 S2: 2400 R1: 2525 R2: 2560
MCX Zinc April: Supports are now at 66.5 and 65.65.Prices are likely to hold this support levels and move towards 68.0.Direct fall below 65.6 to negate our bullish view.S1: 66.5 S2: 64.9 R1: 67.4 R2: 68.35
CX Nickel April: Prices closed at 502 levels above the resistance level of 498. This indicates prices may move up at 509 or even further at 515 levels.Direct fall below 498 may negate our bullish view.S1: 498 S2: 492 R1: 509 R2: 515

mcx gold trading stratergy:The trend is down but a short-covering is likely to be witnessed.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15050 – Rs. 14951 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 14937.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15164 and when it falls below Rs. 15164 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15164 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15050 – Rs. 14951 range or below

mcx silver trading stratergy:The trend is down but a short-covering is likely to be witnessed.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 21749 – Rs. 21356 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 21250.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 22247 and when it falls below Rs. 22247 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 22247 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 21749 – Rs. 21356 range or below.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

MCX Gold June: As expected prices fell lower in line with our expectations. Resistance will be seen at 15195/15210 levels now. Prices are expected to edge lower towards
14885 or even lower as long as resistances cap.S1: 15010 S2: 14885 R1: 15200 R2: 15305
MCX Silver May: Resistance are at 22135 followed by 22455 now. Favored view expects Resistance to cap for a decline towards 21425 or even lower.Unexpected rise above
22472 to cause doubts on our bearish outlook.S1: 21850 S2: 21550 R1: 22475 R2: 22800
MCX Copper April: Resistance will be seen at 205/206 now. Ideally, this Resistance to cap for a test of 196/197. This is our favored view.Daily close above 210/211 could force
us to abandon our bearish view. Such a rise could take prices higher towards 222 levels.S1:199 S2:196 R1:205 R2:210
MCX Crude Oil April : Resistances are at 2555, 2595 followed by 2705. Break of important trend line at 2525 has dented our bullish expectations.Resistances to cap for a decline
towards 2420. However, prices structures, favor a gradual rise from yesterday's lows towards 2664 for the day as long as 2490 holds.S1: 2476 S2: 2400 R1: 2555 R2: 2600
MCX Nickel April: Support is seen at 483/484 levels. Unable to hold this support can take prices to 474 levels.Upmoves beyond 498 may negate our bearish view.
S1: 483 S2: 479 R1: 492 R2: 498
MCX Zinc April: Strong Prices are likely to move down and find support at 64.9/65.0 levels.Direct rise above 67.4 may negate our bearish view.S1: 66.0 S2: 64.9 R1: 67.4 R2: 68.35


GOLDspot: Last 919
At the end of an intense choppy day, prices still closed below 935, suggesting that the spikes
yesterday was unable to shrug off the bearish bias, which now targets 888 and 861. Such
moves, however are unlikely to gain momentum if 904 holds, but the ability of 924 to hold
upsides gains in the morning session would be crucial in setting a bearish overtone at the
start itself.
Trading Strategies: Sell at 923, Sell below 904. Buy at 888. Sell below 880, Buy at 860. Buy
above 923, Buy above 935. Sell at 939 & 943. Buy above 945, Buy above 951. Sell at 967.
Free moves above 970 towards 1006

Comex Copper. Last 1.80
Bargain hunting expected initially. Can evolve into a
strong rally if 1.82 gives away. Japanese Govt is expected
to announce a new stimulus package. Latest data shows
Japanese unemployment rate rising to a 3 year high


Nymex Crude: 49.2
Even though broad bearish bias still prevails, falls today
are unlikely to materialize unless 48.4 gives away.
Favoured view expects bargained hunting towards 50.2,
but is unlikely to evolve into rallies as long as 51.2-51.7
resists.
The trend is down.
Sell on rise to Rs. 15155 – Rs. 15281 with stop loss of Rs. 15333.
Expect a fall towards Rs 14996 – Rs. 14870.
On sustain fall, prices could touch lower trend-line of channel at 14390 level in coming sessions.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15281 and when it falls below Rs. 15281 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15281 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15155 – Rs. 14996 range or below.
SILVER MCX:The trend has turned down.
Ideally, exit all earlier long positions at market price and on rise to Rs. 22076 – Rs. 22299 or above as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long only on rise and close above Rs. 22936.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 22299 and when it falls below Rs. 22299 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 22299 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22076 – Rs. 21801 range or below.
GOLD MCX JUNE:

Monday, March 30, 2009

VIEWS AND TRADING STRATERGIES AS ON 30 TH MARCH

VIEWS ON MCX COMMODITIES:-

MCX Gold June: A bearish trend is in place now. A decline to 14540/14440 seems to be unfolding. Projected objective falls at 13890.Ideally it should stay above this and start a recovery towards 14524. Dip below 14940 is needed to trigger this decline. Stop for this bearish view is kept at 15455, above which it could attempt 15666

MCX Silver May: Important support is in the 21530-21630 zone. A dip below 21640 would most probably pull it down further towards 21195 or even 21010.Below 21010 the selling could intensify, shifting the focus on next support at 19785 S1: 21850 S2: 21550 R1: 22475 R2: 22800

MCX Copper April: Important support is at 200/201 now. Favored view expects a corrective dip to 197/198 levels while below 207/208.Direct rise above 208 to signal bullishness again. S1: 202 S2: 199 R1: 209 R2: 212

MCX Crude Oil April : As anticipated fall below 2675 damaged the bullish picture. However, Indicators suggest that a corrective dip to 2630/2575 region could be followed by next rise towards 2915. It needs to fall below 2545 to cause doubts about this bullish expectation.S1: 2610 S2: 2565 R1: 2720 R2: 2790

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD:-Support will be at 915$.
Sell on fall below 915$ with high of the day stop loss.
On close below 915$ with a negative candle can take the price down towards 900$-882$.
Resistance will be at 930$-937$.
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL:-A breakout of a steeper trend line is witnessed.
Resistance will be at 54$-56$.
Traders holding long positions must exit long at current price and on rise towards 56$ as the opportunity arises.
Support will be at 50.50$-48.50$.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken only on close above 56$.
GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
The trend is down.
It looks like that an expanding triangle setup is in place now.
A significant fall towards lower trend-line could be witnessed in coming sessions.
A break of Rs. 14965 will be crucial for the major downfall.
Sell on rise to Rs. 15119 – Rs. 15198 with stop loss of Rs. 15333.
Expect a fall towards Rs 14770 – Rs. 14390 in sessions to come.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15198 and when it falls below Rs. 15198 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15198 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15119 – Rs. 15013 range or below.

SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-
The trend is up but nature of movement is sideways.
Ideally, exit all long positions at market price and on rise to Rs. 22174 – Rs. 22474 or above as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long only on rise and close above Rs. 22936.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 21851 and when it rises above Rs. 21851 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 21851 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22174 – Rs. 22474 range or above.