MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 28TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  28TH  MAY  2010  ::

MCX Gold June: Support is at 18205-18175 levels now.  As long as supports hold we could expect a  move higher again  towards 18509.A break below 18160 could see 17980 levels.

S1 18320 S2 18240 R1 18460 R2 18540.

MCX Silver July: Dips to 29180-29115 could find support for a move higher again towards 29865. Deeper support is at 28940 and a breach of the same would negate this bullish view .

S1 29140 S2 28960 R1 29480 R2 29660.

MCX Copper June: Dips to 324-322 could hold for a rally towards 336-338 levels now. Direct fall below 320 would negate this view.  

S1 322 S2 318 R1 329 R2 333

MCX Crude Oil June: Dips to 3470 followed by 3415 to hold for a move towards 3639. Immediate resistance lies at 3582 levels now. 

S1 3440 S2 3400 R1 3510 R2 3550.

Mcx Zinc May : Support at 88-87.50 could hold decline for move toward 91. Direct fall below 87 to negate this view. 

S1 88 S2 87 R1 90 R2 91.

MCX Lead May: Breach of 85.50 to see 87.50 level. For the day dip could find support at 83.50/83.00 level.
S1 83.60 S2 82.60 R1 85.40 R2 86.40.

MCX Nickel May: While 985-975 supports hold we can expect a rally towards 1050-1060 levels now .
S1 1001 S2 989 R1 1021 R2:1033.

MCX Natural Gas June: Break above resistance 205 to see further move toward 211-215 level. Dip could find support at 195/193 level.

S1 198 S2 194 R1 204 R2 208.

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::  

Traders got into long positions yesterday as mentioned can keep a stop loss of 1200$.

Expect higher range of 1217$-1230$ to be tested and can be used for profit booking.

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::  

Hold long positions if any now with a stop loss of 17.90$.

Expect higher range of 18.67$-19.23$ to be tested and can be used for profit booking.

GOLD  MCX  JUNE :: TRADING  STRATEGY :: 

The 14 day RSI has started exhibiting negative divergence and so also MACD.

Rise to 18429-18498 can be use to exit long and sell.

A near term sideways movement to minor correction is likely to be witnessed.

Only a breakout and close above 18648 can extend the price but may not be able to maintain on sustained basis.

On the weekly chart, the current week candle is still positive but is now leaving upper shadow.

Support on weekly chart is at 17900. A fall and close below 17900 will confirm termination of the rally for a retracement of the rise from 16471 or 16295.

On the hourly chart, MACD triggered a sell at 5.30 pm on 26/10 at 18587 and since then the hourly chart is down and MACD still has not reversed the signal.

SILVER  MCX  JULY  ::  TRADING  STRATEGY :: 

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 28903.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 29493 with low of the day stop loss or 29075 whichever is lower.

Subsequently, expect a rise towards 29513-30057.

MACD on the hourly chart is trying to exhibit negative divergence therefore traders buying on breakout above 2493 need to exit the same at the higher range also. It is better not to trade to carry it for a long time. As equity markets have perked up, there could be the tendency for Silver to spurt to the higher range.

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EXPECTATIONS FOR 27TH MAY 2010

SPOT  GOLD  ::  

Expect higher range of 1217$-1233$ to be tested.
Traders got into long positions yesterday as mentioned can keep a stop loss of 1200$.



SPOT  SILVER  ::  

Traders can Exit long positions on rise to 18.11$-18.38$ as the opportunity arises.
Sell on rise to 18.11$-18.28$ with a  stop loss of 18.40$.
Cover short positions at 17.85$-17.42$ as the opportunity arises.
Buy on rise and close above 18.40$ with low of the day stop loss.

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 26TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  26TH  MAY  2010  ::

MCX Gold June: Support at 18445 should ideally hold for further gains towards important resistance at 18675 to suggest that it could attract more buying.

S1 18440 S2 18360 R1 18580 R2 18660

 

MCX Silver July: While 28735 holds, we expect a rise towards 29700-29780 levels. Stronger support is at 28575.
 S1 28740 S2 28560 R1 29080 R2 29260

 

MCX Copper June: Expect some consolidation between 322 and 317 level before break either ways. No clear trend presently.

S1 317.45 S2 313.45 R1 324.45 R2 328.45

 

MCX Crude Oil June: Could bounce sharply towards 3400-3446 levels now. Dips to 3246 to hold for a move towards 3400-3446.

S1 3225 S2 3185 R1 3295 R2 3335

 

MCX Zinc May: Again a range trade expected here with 86-91 being a broad trading range.

S1 87 S2 86 R1 89 R2 90

 

MCX Lead May:While 83-84 cap, expect decline to 80.25 or  lower. Unexpected rise above 85 to hint short term bullish strength.

S1 81.5 S2 80.50 R1 83.30 R2 84.30

 

MCX Nickel May: While 1025-1035 caps we expect one more decline towards 975 levels now.

S1 1000 S2 988 R1 1020 R2:1032

 

 MCX Natural Gas June: As expected saw rise toward 191 level.Further move toward 194-195 level look likely while 187 hold.
 S1 193.40 S2 189.40 R1 199.40 R2 203.40

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::  

Expect higher range of 1207-1226$ to be tested.

Traders got into long positions yesterday as mentioned can keep a stop loss of 1184$.

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::  

Cover short positions on dip to 17.77$ or below as the opportunity arises or hold short with a stop loss of 18.06$.
Overall support at lower level of 17.45$-17 could be witnessed. Immediate trading support is at 17.5$. Sell on fall below 17.5$ with high of the day stop loss.
Buy on rise above 18.10$ with low of the day stop loss.

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL ::  

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 71.5$
Cover short positions at 68.65-67.25$ as the opportunity arises.
In case of rise and close above 71.5$ a pullback could resume. Buy above 71.5$ with low of the day stop loss.
The 14 day was in oversold zone below 30 and now trying to move above it.
Volatility index is dropping down which shows that downside now can be limited and movement can get narrowed down in days to come, Unless volatility index again rises. It has tested the zero mark.

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS :: 

Broadly, the support of 3.80$ is important. A fall and close below the same can bring about a further sustained fall once again.
Gas has the habit of sustaining showing sustained fall. Sideways and spike have been witnessed but rising momentum sustainability has always been a question.
Expect volatility in the range of 3.80$-4.50$.

GOLD  SPOT :: Technical Bias : Targets 1227 ::

Even though prices are seen sustaining above 1202 in early trades today, the break above 1197 has not been
convincing to warrant sharp rallies as we had anticipated yesterday. Favoured view expects dips
initially which are likely to take support near 1197 for a rise towards 1220-27.
Long liquidation pressures would re emerge once below 1197, but such moves are unlikely to gain
momentum unless convincingly below 1185.

Trading Strategies:
Buy at 1197/1185
Buy above 1205 > TGT 1220/27
Sell below: 1197
Sell at 1220/27

NEWS  U  CAN  USE  ::

• North Korea threatens to close the last raod link across its border with South Korea if it goes ahead with Pyongyang propaganda. Tension rises in the
peninsuala.
• US-China talks progresses. Yesterday’s focus was on cooperation on energy data
• SPDR Gold Trust’s ETF holdings rises to yet another life time peak of 1267.322 as of May 25.
• Nymex Oil snaps back firmly. Fiddles with $70

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 25TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  25TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June:Support near 18005/18020 to hold for test of 18250/18280 level.However, fall below 18005 to dent bullish view.

S1 18095 S2 18015 R1 18235 R2 18315

MCX Silver July: It is likely that 28645/28725 to cap upside attempts and subsequently fall towards 27845 or even lower.

S1 28550 S2 28370 R1 28890 R2 29070

MCX Copper June: Important support at 316-317 now. Break below here could drag prices towards 313 levels or even lower.Only a direct rise above 327 to add bullish hopes.
S1 320.80 S2 316.80 R1 327.80 R2 331.80

MCX Crude Oil June:  Fall below 3275 opens the downside for 3216 or even lower towards 3110. Only an unexpected rise above 3358 to cause doubts on this bearish view.
S1 3265 S2 3225 R1 3335 R2 3375

MCX Zinc May: As expected we saw a test of 90 levels. Further upside to 91.35 - 93.50 possible while 88.15 holds.

S1 88 S2 87 R1 90 R2 91

MCX Lead May: while 85-86 caps we expect a decline back towards 82.00 levels now.
S1 82 S2 81.50 R1 86 R2 87

MCX Nickel May: Strong resistance will be seen at 1040 -1045 zone. A correction to 1025 or even lower expected. Direct fall below 1001 to take prices strongly lower
again towards 965 levels.

S1 1029 S2 1017 R1 1049 R2:1061

MCX Natural Gas May: A recovery expected towards 193 levels now. Supports are at 185-186 now.

S1 184.40 S2 180.40 R1 190.40 R2 194.40

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

Hold short positions with overall stop loss placed at 18424.

MACD has triggered a selling and is showing downward movement. Prices are attempting to move higher. RSI is below the overbought zone can exhibit a negative divergence in days to come.

Cover short positions on dip to 18112-18040 range as the opportunity arises.

Sell on rise to 18424-18474 with a stop loss of 18500.

 Support is at 18040-17900.

Expect further selling on fall below 17900.

The range is such that it is tempting to buy and other hand feel the situation of getting trapped. Traders willing to take chance can buy on decline to 18112-18040 with a stop loss of 17900 to exit at 18257-18474.

The wider range of movement is 18500-17900 for next few days. A decisive breakout and close above 18500 can extend the rally and a fall below 17900 can terminate a rally.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

Cover short positions at current price or at 28681 or below as the opportunity arises.

Sell further only on fall below 28200.

Expect higher range of 28840-29084 to be tested.

SPOT GOLD ::

The blue color trend line has held the gold fall for the time being.

Resistance will be at 1200$.

Support will be at 1188$-1175$.

Expect higher range of 1200$-1221$ to be tested.

Traders can take chance to buy on decline to 1188$-1179$ with a stop loss of 1175$ to exit at 1200$-1221$. If   opening is weaker then can enter into long traders at lower range  to exit at higher range. If open is higher and then buy range comes, in that case avoid buying.

Sell on fall below 1175$ with high of the day stop loss

SPOT SILVER ::

Cover short positions on dip to 17.83$-17.61$ or hold short with a stop loss of 18.28$.

A rise towards 18.07$-18.28$ is possible but need to see if it can sustain.

Traders can sell on rise to 18.07$ with a  stop loss of 18.28$. 

Sell further on fall below 17.39$ with high of the day stop loss.

ZINC LME ::

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 2088$.

Sell on fall below 1823$ with high of the day stop loss or 2088$ whichever is higher.       

Support will be at 1715$-1452$.

COPPER LME ::

Support will be at 6414$, 6230$ and 5804$.

Resistance will be at 6986$ and 7204$.

A minor pullback rise towards 7204$ could be witnessed.

Cover short positions for the time being. Sell further on fall below 6515$

CRUDE NYMEX ::

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 71.5$

Cover short positions at 70.25$-69.53$ as the opportunity arises.

In case of rise and close above 71.5$ a pullback could resume.

The 14 day was in oversold zone below 30 and now trying to move above it.

Volatility index is dropping down which shows that downside now can be limited and movement can get narrowed down in days to come, Unless volatility index again rises. It has tested the zero mark

NEWS ::

1. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust  said its holdings totalled 1,236.889 tonnes as of May 24 versus 1,220.152 tonnes previously

2. World largest Gold ETF's holdings (SPDR Gold Trust) rise to yet another life time peak.

3. Bank of Spain takes over a small lender.Eurozone worries rekindle.Basemetals turn lower. Reports of N. Korea having prepared its military for combat last week turns Asian stocks lower.

4. GOLDmcx opens higher on weak rupee. Spot Gold is positive on Eurozone/NKorea tensions, but needs to break above 1197 for fresh rallies.

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 24TH MAY 2010

MCX  &  COMEX  EXPECTATIONS  FOR  24TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June: A push above 18170 could increase the chances for further gains towards 18231/18277. Supports are at 18017/17987. Fall below 17895 could hint at for this rise. This rally could stay near 18323. Rise past 18369 would be a bullish sign, lessening the scope for a decline.
S1 17930 S2 17850 R1 18070 R2 18150

MCX Silver July: Upside move towards 28948/29093 are possible. Weekly chart favors further decline to levels like 26916 or 26755. If price rise unexpectedly rise above 29625 this bearish view might have to be changed.
S1 28260 S2 28080 R1 28600 R2 28780

MCX Copper June: Dip to 317 level to hold support for test of 325-328 levels. Fall below 315 to dent our bullish view.
S1 318.65 S2 314.65 R1 325.65 R2 329.65

MCX Crude Oil June: The big picture has turned bearish for a fall to 3082 or lower.There could be upside to 3364/3388 or even 3449. Selling might emerge when prices rise. Rise above 3472 would cause doubts about maintaining this bearish view.
S1 3290 S2 3250 R1 3360 R2 3400

MCX Zinc May: Dips to 87 to find support for a test of 89-90 levels now. Further extension to even 93 cannot be ruled out. 
S1 88 S2 87 R1 90 R2 91

MCX Lead May: Resistance at 86 followed by 89-89.50 level. Favored view expects resistances to be tested while prices stay above 82.00.
S1 83 S2 82 R1 85 R2 86

MCX Nickel May: While 975-980 holds downside attempts, we expect resistances at 1045 or even higher to 1062 to be tested in the coming sessions.
S1 1001 S2 989 R1 1021 R2:1033

MCX Natural Gas May: Resistances in the 193-95 zone to cap for 183.
S1 187 S2 183 R1 193 R2 197

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ::

Hold short positions with overall stop loss placed at 18424.

MACD has triggered a sell and RSI has exited overbought zone. RSI is moving down now.  As per the indicators, we could see a correction or sideways movement in days to come.

Support will be at 17900.

Sell on fall below 17900 with high of the day stop loss or 18424 broadly whichever is higher.

Sell on rise to 18110 and 18318 as the opportunity arises 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY ::

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 28935 to hold short.

Cover short positions on dip to 28419-28208-27790 range as the opportunity arises.

In case of close below 28000, the slide can get accelerated to test 27000-26740.

A minor rise towards 28626-29044 is possible.

SPOT SILVER ::

Hold short with a stop loss of 18.30$.

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 17.61 or below.

Lower level support will be at 17$.

In case of fall and close below 17$, the slide can get accelerated.

We could first see a rise towards 17.82$-18.27$.

NEWS ::
• US-China high-level talks today. Economic relationship to be discussed along with North Korea.
• COT report shows that net long non commercial US Gold futures positions fell 1.8% to 231670 contracts in the week ended 18th May.
• SPDR Gold Trust’s ETF holdings remained steady at life time record peak of 1220.152 tonnes hit on 20th of May

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