VIEWS ::
MCX Gold April: As expected we saw a move towards 15304 levels.We can expect a consolidation now in the 15188-15304 zone and then rise higher towards 15600-15635 levels. This is our favored view. Fall below 15159 to cause doubts on this view.S1: 15240 S2: 14990 R1: 15403 R2: 15600
MCX Silver May: Supports are at 21920/21936 presently. Favored view expects supports to hold and rise towards 22310/22396 levels or even higher.Fall below 21700 to dent our bullish view.S1: 21930 S2: 21530 R1: 22300 R2: 22650
MCX Copper April: Despite the fall , a good bounce is seen and a break above 193 to revive bullish hopes for a test of 210 or even higher.S1: 184 S2: 179 R1: 188 R2: 19
MCX Crude Oil April : Rise above 2375 a bullish sign as cautioned in the previous update. Supports are at 2372 followed by 2300 now.Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 2525 or even higher. Fall below 2290 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 2375 S2: 2325 R1: 2450 R2: 2500
MCX Zinc March: Prices may move down and find support at 62.35 or even lower at 61.0 .Close above 63.0 to negate our bearish view.S1: 62.35 S2: 61.0 R1: 63.5 R2: 64.5
MCX Lead March: Supports are at 63.4/62.4 levels now. While above these levels prices could stay firm and test resistance at 64.7.However a fall below 63.0 could see prices correct towards supports at 60.8.S1: 63.0 S2: 60.5 R1: 64.7 R2: 66.0
MCX Nickel March: Prices have broken out from the trading band of 500-515 downwards and closed at 494.5 levels.Prices may move down and find support at 481 levels. Close above 502 to negate our bearish view.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 501 R2: 510
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX APRIL ::
The trend is down but can reverse.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15287 – Rs. 15125 as the opportunity arises.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15463 and when it falls below Rs. 15463 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15463 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15287 – Rs. 15125 range or below.
Daily Clsoing Reversal : 15316
SILVER MCX MAY ::
The trend is down but a short covering is being witnessed.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 22024 – Rs. 21773 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 21456. with high of the day as a stop loss.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 22316 and when it falls below Rs. 22316 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 22316 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22024 – Rs. 21773 range or below.
Daily Closing Reversal : 22171
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
Resistance will be at 13.02$-13.08$.
A further rise and close above 13.08$ can take the Silver price up towards 13.20$-13.30$.
Support will be at 12.78$-12.63$.
On the hourly chart, a trend line breakout will be witnessed on rise above 13.08$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
Resistance will be at 931$.
A further rise and close above 931$ can take the Gold price up towards 935$-945$. Sustainability at higher range can be an issue.
Support will be at 915$-903$
For intra-day hourly trader the range is 919$-931$.
Traders can trade long for intra-day with a stop loss or 919$.
Alternatively, sell below 919$ with a stop loss of 931$ or high of the day which ever is higher at the point of breakdown.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!
MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
OUTLOOK FOR 11TH MARCH 2009
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD VIEW FOR THE DAY AND NEAR TERM:Support at lower levels will be witnessed first of the channel and then of the retracement level of 882$.
Support Cluster will be in the range of 890$-873$ which could be tested during the day.
Some bounce back could be witnessed from the support range.
Resistance will be at 903$-915$-935$.
Spurt on intra-day towards 903$-915$ is possible as yesterday was the day of large wide movement on the downside. A relief rise to resistance is possible.
In case of fall and close below 873$ then expect the slide to move down towards 844$ to 806$.
Overall traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss at 923$ to maintain short positions. Alternatively, cover short positions at support range and re-enter short on fall below 873$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER VIEW;-Support will be at 12.46$-12.40$.
Sell further on fall and close below 12.40$ with high of the day stop loss or 13.02$ whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.
If that happens then expect a slide towards 11.98$ at least.
Sell on rise to 12.75$ or above with a stop loss of 13.02$
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL:Traders can exit long positions on rise from current price to 50.50$ as the opportunity arises to re-enter long on close above 50.50$.
Intra-day traders can take chance to buy only above 48.9$.
A fall and close below 44.9$ can bring about a fall in price and Crude can go below the trend line which will mean a false breakout situation was witnessed.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
VIEWS OF COMEX GOLD SILVER AND CRUDE 8/3/09
OUTLOOK ON COMEX GOLD FUTURES:Comex Gold (GC) :-
Gold's correction from 1007.7 was contained at 900.40, above 892 support as expected and rebounded strongly. An intraday low should be in place and initial outlook will remain neutral for this week. Break of 936.10 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1007.7 resistance first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1033.9 high next. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'd still expect downside to be contained by mentioned 892 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
OUTLOOK ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver recovered strongly after correction from 14.6 extended to 12.45 last week. Break of 13.33 minor resistance suggests that such correction has completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 14.6 high. Break of confirm rally resumption towards next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, below 12.45 will indicate that mentioned correction is still in progress. But after all, we'd still expected downside to be contained by 11.77 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.88 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's choppy recovery from 33.55 extended further to as high as 46.30 last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Such rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only. Hence, while further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 50.47 and bring medium term down trend resumption. On the downside, below 39.44 minor support will suggest that rise from 33.55 has finally completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower. . However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
In the longer term picture, steep decline from 147.27 is treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal for the moment.
NATURAL GAS NEAR TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural Ga's recovery from 3.916 was limited at 4.380 last week and weakened sharply afterwards and is now back pressing 3.916 low. Such development argues that recent decline might be ready to resume this week. Initial bias will be on the downside and break of 3.916 will confirm fall resumption to next target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67.
On the upside, however, above 4.145 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and argue that consolidation from 3.916 is going to extend further before completion. In such case, another recovery could be seen to 4.38 resistance or above. Nevertheless, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.845, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.
Gold's correction from 1007.7 was contained at 900.40, above 892 support as expected and rebounded strongly. An intraday low should be in place and initial outlook will remain neutral for this week. Break of 936.10 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1007.7 resistance first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1033.9 high next. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'd still expect downside to be contained by mentioned 892 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
OUTLOOK ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver recovered strongly after correction from 14.6 extended to 12.45 last week. Break of 13.33 minor resistance suggests that such correction has completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 14.6 high. Break of confirm rally resumption towards next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, below 12.45 will indicate that mentioned correction is still in progress. But after all, we'd still expected downside to be contained by 11.77 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.88 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's choppy recovery from 33.55 extended further to as high as 46.30 last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Such rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only. Hence, while further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 50.47 and bring medium term down trend resumption. On the downside, below 39.44 minor support will suggest that rise from 33.55 has finally completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower. . However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
In the longer term picture, steep decline from 147.27 is treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal for the moment.
NATURAL GAS NEAR TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural Ga's recovery from 3.916 was limited at 4.380 last week and weakened sharply afterwards and is now back pressing 3.916 low. Such development argues that recent decline might be ready to resume this week. Initial bias will be on the downside and break of 3.916 will confirm fall resumption to next target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67.
On the upside, however, above 4.145 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and argue that consolidation from 3.916 is going to extend further before completion. In such case, another recovery could be seen to 4.38 resistance or above. Nevertheless, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.845, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.
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