MCX Gold Oct : Bearish momentum in weekly daily charts could make the price to stay under 15003 and drift to supports near 14736, 14564 or 14502. The bullish consolidation pattern would breakdown if price falls below 14375, nullifying the bullish expectation. Favoured view expects the decline to end near 14799 or 14612 for resumption of the uptrend by rising past 15145. Fall below 14564 would hint at deeper decline to 14501 or 14375. S1: 14805 S2: 14730 R1:14922 R2: 14989
MCX Silver September: Supports are at 23115 followed by 22825. Failure to find support here could drag prices lower towards 21920 levels. Resistance are at 23640 followed by 23730. Direct rise above 23750 to negate bearish view. S1: 23340 S2: 23115 R1: 23640 R2: 23857
MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 291/290 now. Stronger support is at 287/286. Only a daily close below this could lead to a further corrective move towards 272/273. S1: 292 S2: 287 R1: 299 R2: 305
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Favoured view expects that resistance near 3443 or 3478 could cap for a fall towards 3278 or even 3170. It needs to rise above 3501 to change this bearish view. S1:3335 S2:3278 R1:3404 R2:3452
MCX Lead Aug : Support is seen at 86.00 levels. Failure to hold support at this level could see further weakness towards 84.00.On the other hand a direct rise above 89.50 to see prices rise again. S1:87.20 S2:86.00 R1:89.00 R2:90.60
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is seen at 920 / 910 levels. Failure to hold support these levels could see further weakness towards 880 levels.On the other hand a rise above resistance at 986 / 996 to see prices rising again. S1:923 S2:907 R1:962 R2:986
MCX Natural Gas Aug: While below 166 prices could stay under pressure. Next supports are at 156 followed by 151 levels now. A rise above 166 could see a corrective move up towards 172 / 174 levels. S1:156 S2:151 R1:165.35 R2:171.80
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-
On Friday, we had indicated that traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14847 and take profits on rise to 14999-15060 range as the opportunity arises.
On Friday, we had seen excess volatility as the high and low were at 15011-14781. The stop loss was violated after attaining the profit booking range of 14999-15060.
A breakout and close above 15020 can bring about a near term rally.
Support range will be at 14781-14690.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15020
MCX SILVER TRADING STATERGY:-
Traders who are holding long positions and wish to continue to do so can maintain a stop loss of 23354.
Take profit on rise to 23988-24270 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 24270 with low of the day stop loss or 23615 whichever is lower at the point of breakout
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
The low registered was 939.4$ and moved back up to test the red color trend line offering resistance.
If the support and the low registered 3 days back of 939.4$ is violated on closing then expect a confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern with price implication down towards 920$-907$.
Traders can sell on rise to 953$ or above with a stop loss of 965$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-
A new dark blue color trend line is marked parallel to orange color line which shows the angle of accent.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 15$-15.50$ to exit long positions and take profit.
Support will be at 14.46$.
Traders can maintain a stop loss of 14.46$ to hold long positions
NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-
The long term weekly chart is shown below.
The Projection B is about to be tested.
The recent low of 3.15$ is about to get tested.
Support range is at 3.15$-3.05$.
On fall and close below 3$, the slide can get extended towards 2.64$ at least and to an outer extent to 1.85$-1.76$.
We have a good probability that Natural Gas could bounce from 3.15$-3.05$ or 2.64$.
On weekly charts, a weekly close above 3.77$ can only confirm a reversal otherwise series of lower top and lower bottom continues
COMEX HIGH GRADE COPPER;-
On the daily chart, the system show a buy signal on 15th July 2009(D, M, Y as shown in the chart shown the date) at 2.392$ (BP) and since then the trend has been up. The set target area (BT) when buy signal was confirmed was 2.60, 2.66 and 2.83. All the target level indicated we attained.
Book profit signal were market has well with Red Color Dot on the chart.
The trend line holds importance now.
A parallel track formation has been formed on Thursday and Friday which is a 2 day pattern.
If the trend line is violated then a correction is likely.
Support is around 2.69$.
If the support of 2.69$ is violated then expect top confirmation for fall.
In case of a breakout and close above 2.95$, the rally will get extended towards 3.17$.
NYMEX CRUDE;-
Crude Oil has violated the support of 69$ on closing.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 68.7$-70.10$ to exit long positions and to sell with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 74$.
The blue color trend line could be tested.
The higher bottom is placed at 62.7$.
Support will be at 64.9$ or below with a stop loss of 62.7$.
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN US FOR OUR ROCKING INTRADAY TRADING TIPS....
Monday, August 17, 2009
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Comex Gold (GC):-
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212
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