MCX Gold April: Supports are at 15130/15146 levels now. Ideally, we expect supports to hold for a rally towards 15453 or 15598. Fall below supports could test 14952 or even lower.S1: 15100 S2: 14800 R1: 15490 R2: 15670
MCX Silver Mar: Rise above 21887/21920 to test 22220 or even higher towards 22403. Supports are at 21704 followed by 21554. Fall below 21488 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 21290 S2: 20600 R1: 22060 R2: 22500
MCX Copper April: Fall below 170 could signal weakness and a close below 1 68 could take prices lower again towards recent lows or even lower.However, for now while above 170/171 there are good chances of a test of 185/186 levels. S1: 175 S2: 170 R1: 178 R2: 183
MCX Crude Oil March : Important support is at 2206/2207 now. Failure to hold support here could lead it to 2177 and 2124. Favored view expects 2184 levels to hold for a rally towards 2360 levels. Fall below 2184 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 2205 S2: 2130 R1: 2280 R2: 2374
MCX Zinc March: - Rise above 57.30 to test 58.15 or even higher towards 58.8. Supports are at 56.7 followed by 55.35. Fall below 55.3 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 56.70 S2: 55.35 R1: 57.3 R2: 59.3
MCX Lead March: Dips to 51.9 and 51.1 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 54.0. This is our favored view. Fall below 51.0 to dent our bullish view.S1: 51.90 S2: 51.10 R1: 52.75 R2: 54.0
MCX Nickel March: Supports are at 509/510 levels now. Ideally, we expect supports to hold for a rally towards 523 or 538. Fall below supports could test 505 or even lower.S1: 505 S2: 496 R1: 517 R2: 538
MCX Natural Gas March: - Strong support is seen at 200 levels. Moves beyond 208 may take prices to 213 or even higher. Fall below 200 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 204 S2: 200 R1: 209 R2: 213
TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 26TH FEB. 2009
MCX Gold April: Supports are seen at 15004-15020 now. Failure to hold support here could result in a fall towards 14830/14860 levels.Resistances are at 15338/15370 now. S1: 15340 S2: 15145 R1: 15625 R2: 16000
MCX Silver Mar: Rallies to 22350/22365 to resist for a decline towards 21540 or even lower. This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 22700 to cause doubts about this view. S1: 22650 S2: 22140 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Copper April: Initial resistance is at 181/182 levels. Beyond which it could target recent highs at 188/189 where it could find very strong resistance. S1: 167 S2: 163 R1: 172 R2: 176
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 2014 and 1983 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 2424. This is our favored view. Fall below 1980 to dent our bullish view.S1: 2059 S2: 2015 R1: 2135 R2: 2208
MCX Zinc March: - Dips to 56.35 could find support for a move higher towards 58.9/59.3, break below 55.6 would negate this bullish view. S1: 56.35 S2: 55.35 R1: 57.3 R2: 59.3
MCX Lead March: Prices closed above resistance level 51.55. Up rallies may take price to 54.0 level.Moves below 50.8 will negate our bullish view. S1: 51.40 S2: 50.53 R1: 52.65 R2: 54.0
MCX Nickel March: Dips to 510 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 538. This is our favored view. Fall below 507 to dent our bullish view. S1: 512 S2: 507 R1: 523 R2: 538
MCX Natural Gas March: - Prices may move below 200 level and find support around 196. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view. S1: 200 S2: 196 R1: 204 R2: 210
MCX Silver Mar: Rallies to 22350/22365 to resist for a decline towards 21540 or even lower. This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 22700 to cause doubts about this view. S1: 22650 S2: 22140 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Copper April: Initial resistance is at 181/182 levels. Beyond which it could target recent highs at 188/189 where it could find very strong resistance. S1: 167 S2: 163 R1: 172 R2: 176
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 2014 and 1983 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 2424. This is our favored view. Fall below 1980 to dent our bullish view.S1: 2059 S2: 2015 R1: 2135 R2: 2208
MCX Zinc March: - Dips to 56.35 could find support for a move higher towards 58.9/59.3, break below 55.6 would negate this bullish view. S1: 56.35 S2: 55.35 R1: 57.3 R2: 59.3
MCX Lead March: Prices closed above resistance level 51.55. Up rallies may take price to 54.0 level.Moves below 50.8 will negate our bullish view. S1: 51.40 S2: 50.53 R1: 52.65 R2: 54.0
MCX Nickel March: Dips to 510 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 538. This is our favored view. Fall below 507 to dent our bullish view. S1: 512 S2: 507 R1: 523 R2: 538
MCX Natural Gas March: - Prices may move below 200 level and find support around 196. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view. S1: 200 S2: 196 R1: 204 R2: 210
TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::
The trend has turned down.
Sell only on a fall below Rs 15210 with a stop loss at Rs 15660.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs 15705 and when it falls below Rs 15705 then sell with the high above Rs 15705 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Support is seen at Rs 15262 – Rs 15014.
MCX SILVER MARCH ::
The trend is up.
Buy only on a rise above Rs 23025 or sell below Rs 22080 whichever is earlier.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 22220 and when it rises above Rs 22220 then buy with the low below Rs 22220 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23163 – Rs 23565
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
VIEWS FOR 25TH FEB. 2009
MCX Gold April: Corrective rallies to 15570/15600 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 15235 followed by 15075, break above 15873 would negate this bearish view. S1: 15357 S2: 14885 R1: 15625 R2: 16000
MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523
MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523
Comex Gold April: - Corrective rallies to 976/978 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 955 followed by 945, break above 995 would negate this bearish view.
Comex Silver March: - Corrective rallies to 14.02/14.10 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 13.40/13.45, break above 14.35 would negate this bearish view.
NYMEX Crude April: - Dips to 39.35 followed by 38.50 could find support for a move higher towards 42.5/43, break below 37.60 would negate this bullish view.
VIEWS FOR 25TH FEB. 2009
MCX Gold April: Corrective rallies to 15570/15600 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 15235 followed by 15075, break above 15873 would negate this bearish view. S1: 15357 S2: 14885 R1: 15625 R2: 16000
MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523
MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565
MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 24th FEB. 2009
VIEWS ::
MCX Gold April: A consolidation is in progress now. Immediate support is at 15570/15586 levels and a break below should target 15250. Favored view expects 15586/15602 to hold for a break above 15937/15953 and go for 16496.S1: 15845 S2: 15625 R1: 15930 R2: 16040
MCX Silver Mar: A hugely volatile day with support at 22932. Fall below 22915 and a subsequent fall below 22750 to open the way for a correction towards 21450 at least. However, as long as 22932 holds prices could aim for 22992.S1: 23402 S2: 22788 R1: 23847 R2: 24410
MCX Copper February: The big picture price structure looks clearly weak. Fall below 155.3 to drag prices lower towards 150 initially or even lower towards 137.6 levels. S1: 157 S2: 153 R1: 160 R2: 166
MCX Crude Oil March : A bear flag indicates weakness. Break below 1885 to take prices lower towards 1788 or even lower. Any rallies to 1974 or even higher towards 2009 to resist for a down move. S1: 1946 S2: 1898 R1: 1983 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Strong support at 53.90 is seen. Breaching of 53.90 level can take price to 53.05 level.Rallies if any will find resistance at 54.6 and further at 55.0 level. S1: 53.95 S2: 53.35 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Strong support is seen at 49.80 level. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 50.0 S2: 49.3 R1: 50.7 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 485 may take prices to 497 level.However a break of supports at 468 may take prices to 457 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 468 S2: 457 R1: 486 R2: 497
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX SILVER ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 22530.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 23685.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 23383 and when it rises above Rs 23383 then buy with the low below Rs 23383 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23700 – Rs 24198.
MCX GOLD ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 15550.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 15930.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 15796 and when it rises above Rs 15796 then buy with the low below Rs 15796 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 16021 – Rs 16155.
COMEX SILVER ::
The channeled rise continues.
Support will be at 14.09$-13.85$.
A fall and close below 13.85$ can bring about a slide down for a correction.
Use rise to take profit at current price or on rise to resistance 14.67$-14.92$ as the opportunity arises.
COMEX GOLD ::
Gold likely to face resistance now at higher range therefore, it can move sideways or exhibit a minor correction.
Support range will be at 975$-970$.
Resistance range will be at 992$-1006$.
Use rise to take profit as the opportunity arises
MCX Gold April: A consolidation is in progress now. Immediate support is at 15570/15586 levels and a break below should target 15250. Favored view expects 15586/15602 to hold for a break above 15937/15953 and go for 16496.S1: 15845 S2: 15625 R1: 15930 R2: 16040
MCX Silver Mar: A hugely volatile day with support at 22932. Fall below 22915 and a subsequent fall below 22750 to open the way for a correction towards 21450 at least. However, as long as 22932 holds prices could aim for 22992.S1: 23402 S2: 22788 R1: 23847 R2: 24410
MCX Copper February: The big picture price structure looks clearly weak. Fall below 155.3 to drag prices lower towards 150 initially or even lower towards 137.6 levels. S1: 157 S2: 153 R1: 160 R2: 166
MCX Crude Oil March : A bear flag indicates weakness. Break below 1885 to take prices lower towards 1788 or even lower. Any rallies to 1974 or even higher towards 2009 to resist for a down move. S1: 1946 S2: 1898 R1: 1983 R2: 2010
MCX Zinc Feb: - Strong support at 53.90 is seen. Breaching of 53.90 level can take price to 53.05 level.Rallies if any will find resistance at 54.6 and further at 55.0 level. S1: 53.95 S2: 53.35 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0
MCX Lead Feb: Strong support is seen at 49.80 level. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 50.0 S2: 49.3 R1: 50.7 R2: 51.70
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 485 may take prices to 497 level.However a break of supports at 468 may take prices to 457 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 468 S2: 457 R1: 486 R2: 497
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210
TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX SILVER ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 22530.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 23685.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 23383 and when it rises above Rs 23383 then buy with the low below Rs 23383 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23700 – Rs 24198.
MCX GOLD ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 15550.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 15930.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 15796 and when it rises above Rs 15796 then buy with the low below Rs 15796 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 16021 – Rs 16155.
COMEX SILVER ::
The channeled rise continues.
Support will be at 14.09$-13.85$.
A fall and close below 13.85$ can bring about a slide down for a correction.
Use rise to take profit at current price or on rise to resistance 14.67$-14.92$ as the opportunity arises.
COMEX GOLD ::
Gold likely to face resistance now at higher range therefore, it can move sideways or exhibit a minor correction.
Support range will be at 975$-970$.
Resistance range will be at 992$-1006$.
Use rise to take profit as the opportunity arises
Sunday, February 22, 2009
weekly views of gold silver as on 23 rd feb
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1007.7 last week and remains firm. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 969.5 support holds, targeting 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 969.5 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But pullback should be contained by 892 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally extended further to as high as 14.58 last week. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 13.85 support holds. Further rise should be seen to next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 13.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 11.77 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975) indicates that whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 16.12 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
CRUDE WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery from 33.55 is still in progress and extended to as high as 40.13 last week. Such recovery should still be in progress as long as 34.16 minor support holds and further rally could be seen towards upper end of recent range near to 50.47 resistance. But after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as this resistance holds. Below 34.16 will argue that recent down trend is resuming for 30 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, note that downside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bullish convergence in daily MACD. Weekly MACD has also crossed above signal line already. Also, crude oil has just drawn some support from another key long term support zone of 17.12/33.5. Hence we'll continue to look for reversal signal. Nevertheless, whole fall from 147.27 is still treated as in progress as long as 50.47 resistance holds. The current fall might still extend further to long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas dived through 4.0 psychological support last week and reached as low as 3.921 before recovering mildly. Such decline should still be in progress as long as 4.28 minor resistance holds, towards 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. On the upside, above 4.28 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34. On the upside, 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming and bring stronger rebound to retest 6.24 resistance
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1007.7 last week and remains firm. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 969.5 support holds, targeting 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 969.5 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But pullback should be contained by 892 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally extended further to as high as 14.58 last week. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 13.85 support holds. Further rise should be seen to next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 13.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 11.77 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975) indicates that whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 16.12 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
CRUDE WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery from 33.55 is still in progress and extended to as high as 40.13 last week. Such recovery should still be in progress as long as 34.16 minor support holds and further rally could be seen towards upper end of recent range near to 50.47 resistance. But after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as this resistance holds. Below 34.16 will argue that recent down trend is resuming for 30 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, note that downside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bullish convergence in daily MACD. Weekly MACD has also crossed above signal line already. Also, crude oil has just drawn some support from another key long term support zone of 17.12/33.5. Hence we'll continue to look for reversal signal. Nevertheless, whole fall from 147.27 is still treated as in progress as long as 50.47 resistance holds. The current fall might still extend further to long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas dived through 4.0 psychological support last week and reached as low as 3.921 before recovering mildly. Such decline should still be in progress as long as 4.28 minor resistance holds, towards 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. On the upside, above 4.28 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34. On the upside, 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming and bring stronger rebound to retest 6.24 resistance
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
