weekly views of gold silver as on 23 rd feb

GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1007.7 last week and remains firm. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 969.5 support holds, targeting 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 969.5 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But pullback should be contained by 892 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally extended further to as high as 14.58 last week. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 13.85 support holds. Further rise should be seen to next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 13.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 11.77 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975) indicates that whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 16.12 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
CRUDE WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery from 33.55 is still in progress and extended to as high as 40.13 last week. Such recovery should still be in progress as long as 34.16 minor support holds and further rally could be seen towards upper end of recent range near to 50.47 resistance. But after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as this resistance holds. Below 34.16 will argue that recent down trend is resuming for 30 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, note that downside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bullish convergence in daily MACD. Weekly MACD has also crossed above signal line already. Also, crude oil has just drawn some support from another key long term support zone of 17.12/33.5. Hence we'll continue to look for reversal signal. Nevertheless, whole fall from 147.27 is still treated as in progress as long as 50.47 resistance holds. The current fall might still extend further to long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas dived through 4.0 psychological support last week and reached as low as 3.921 before recovering mildly. Such decline should still be in progress as long as 4.28 minor resistance holds, towards 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. On the upside, above 4.28 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34. On the upside, 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming and bring stronger rebound to retest 6.24 resistance