Friday, November 5, 2010

DONT MISS WATCH OUT THE VIEW FOR THE DAY AND MEDIUM TERM ON GOLD AND SILVER



SPOT SILVER:-We had indicated to buy above 25.1, Silver crossed 25.1 and move to 26.34$.
Traders who managed to enter long trade had the opportunity to benefit.
Corrective dip to 25.8-25.27 can be used for buying with a  stop loss24.70$.
Expect Silver to attain 27.27$ at least and to an outer extent to 30$.


SPOT GOLD:-The stop loss for sell 1366$ was crossed and buy got triggered as mentioned in yesterday’s update.
The high registered yesterday was 1393$. Traders who managed to get into buy above 1366$ had the opportunity to benefit.
Corrective dip to 1377$-1361$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1366$.
Expect 1408$-1455$ to be tested.
The potential for Gold to move towards higher has increased.  To an outer limit if all goes well on the upside then rise towards 1550$ cannot be ruled out in medium term.
Gold would run into trouble now only if 1325-1300$ is violated. Otherwise, we could see gold moving higher with intra-day correction to form higher top and higher bottom formation on its march towards 1550$ which could take time to happen. The view is true and applicable till support zone of 1325-$1300 is not violated.

NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-Corrective dip to 3.83$-3.77$ can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 3.20$
Resistance is at 4.19$. Whenever is crossed then add further for target of 5-5.20 at least and to an outer extent to 6.10$.
The retracement was up to 78.6% of the rise from 2.40$ to 6.10$.
The rise on breakout and close above 4.19$ can generate a potential for 6.88$ to 7.89$ in long term.


NYMEX CRUDE;-Hold long if any with a stop loss of with a broad stop loss of 83.5.
Expect higher range of 87.24$-89.15$ to be tested.
Corrective dip to 86.08$-85.33$ can be used for buying.
If the peak of 87.20$ is crossed on sustained basis then expect a rally towards 934$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 100$.


MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The volume registered on the panic fall to 19310 has been heavy on Wednesday 03/11/2010.  Incidentally, the volume bar high of that hour -9.30 pm that was at 19593. It open and quickly move above it and sustained above it as well.
As a result of which a rise was witnessed above 19783 which was the high from where Gold crashed on intra-day of 03/11/2010.
The next resistance of 19889 was crossed.
The general expectation as mentioned was Wave c of flat pattern was is in progress as mentioned.  It was expected to get completed but move up strong to make the low of 03/11/2010 as the bottom.
 The next resistance is at 20028. The same is likely to get test.  The set up of RSI and MACD combination worked well yesterday resulting into a up move.
A correction of the rise from 19310 to 19917(whichever is high today before making attempts to move beyond 20028. The likely correction levels will be 19783 and 19688.The stop loss mentioned of 19783 was crossed therefore logically traders short should be out at that time itself.
Traders still short can cover the same on dip to 19776 or below as the opportunity arises.
Yesterday rise can prove to be one off erratic spike of the recent peak of 20028 is not crossed.
International price made new peak yesterday but the same was not seen on Indian MCX Gold prices. This was probably on the back of stronger INR.
Now, it looks that the recent lows range of 19625-19260 may not be violated.  If at all gold falls below the support zone of 19625-19260 then the fall can be severely sharper.
Assuming at this point that the support zone unlikely to get violated corrective dip to 19776-19635 can be used for buying.
The volatility is likely to be wider therefore the risk involved if stop loss getting violated is large therefore trader need to keep that in mind and trade. Alternatively, time the trade based on intra-day charts. Alternatively, wait for a fall below 19776 or 19635 and when it moves above 19776 or 19635 then buy with low below 19776 or 19635 to minimize risk.
If 20028 is crossed then expect Gold to move higher towards 20231 and 20488 to meet the upper channel line of the equidistant channel 


MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-As per the hourly chart, a minor retracement of the rise from 35936 to 38443 can be witnessed. The retracement levels are placed at 37515-37218 before making further attempts to move higher.n the daily chart update, we had indicated to buy above 37485 with low of the day stop loss. The high registered yesterday was 38433. Traders who managed to buy above 37485 had the opportunity to benefit.
Equidistant channel is  The 1.618 of the 2 point retracement of the fall from 36937 to 34613 has been witnessed.  The 1.618 was at 38460 and high yesterday was 36645.
Corrective dip to 37723-37003 can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 35936. The volatility has increased therefore the logical stop loss as per daily chart has widen. Traders need to keep that is mind as we will not go by individual traders comfort stop loss. But have to go by some kind of trading higher bottom to define a stop loss. To reduce the risk, traders can wait for a fall below 37723 and 37003 and when it moves above 37723 or 37003 then buy with low of the day stop loss below 37723 or 37003. Regularly, the trade need to check the low registered during the day and the current price to reduce risk at the time of acting on the indicated buy.
The 3 point projection of 61.8% of the rise from 28901 to 36937 from 34613 is placed at 39580 which goes on to meet the upper channel line.