EXPECTATIONS FOR 14TH MAY 2010

EXPECTATIONS  FOR  14TH  MAY  2010  ::

MCX Gold June: As expected support at 18000 held well. Looks like another consolidation underway for a rise to 18705 levels now.Fall below 17971 to lead to greater corrective decline.

S1 17960 S2 17880 R1 18100 R2 18180

 

MCX Silver July: Favored view expects any corrective dips to hold at 29480-29510 for a rise to 30395 or even higher to 30900.Failure to hold support could take it lower to 29175.

S1 29540 S2 29360 R1 29880 R2 30060

 

MCX Copper June: While upside resistance at 325 caps we can expect a sharp decline now towards 312-313 opening the way for 305.There is a possibility that 312-13 could hold again and try to test highs at 325.
S1 319 S2 315 R1 326 R2 330

 

MCX Natural Gas May: Supports in the 192-193 zone to offer good support for a rally towards 203-205 levels now.
S1 194 S2 190 R1 200 R2 204

 

MCX Nickel May: Resistances at 1045 followed by 1065 to cap upside moves for a decline towards 975 or even lower.Unexpected rise above 1065 to take prices towards 1091-1095 levels.
 S1 1016 S2 1004 R1 1036 R2:1048

 

MCX Lead May: Important resistance is at 93 followed by 95 now. Only a direct rise above 95 to hint at bullish strength.While the resistances cap there are more chances of a decline towards 87 or even lower.
S1 91 S2 90 R1 93 R2 94

 

MCX Zinc May: As expected resistance was quite strong at 97 levels. While this level caps we expect the consolidation to continue between 93-97again.

S1: 94.50 S2: 93.50 R1: 96 R2: 97

  

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

 

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 17897.   

RSI has started showing negative divergence as it is lower than the peak and price made a new high of the rise. Therefore, at higher range profit booking pressure can be witnessed. RSI is in overbought zone of above 70 therefore the momentum may remain. The historical peak is at 18415 which is likely to be tested on the rise.

MACD is still moving up and has not yet turned down.

Use rise to 18177-18412 to take profit. Alternatively, traders willing to  hold long positions can keep a stop loss of 17897.

Fresh long positions from trading point of view can be undertaken on breakout and close above 18415. The candle movement has to be positive at the point of breakout above 18415

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

 

Hold long position with a stop loss of 29365

Expect higher range of 29798-30075-30716 to be tested and can be used to take profit.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 30170 with low of the day stop loss.

 

SPOT GOLD ::

 

Hold long positions with a  stop loss of 1226.

Traders who are holding long positions can take profit on rise to 1234$-1241$-1256$ as the opportunity arises.

Fresh trading long position can be undertaken on rise above 1250$ with low of the day stop loss or 1226$.

SPOT SILVER ::

Traders can Hold long positions with a stop loss of 18.10$.

Exit long and book profit on rise to 19.51$ or above.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 19.80$.

A near term correction or sideways movement could be witnessed if the close above 19.8$ is not witnessed.

Long legged doji has been formed which suggest that the rise could be at halt and the near term correction or sideways movement could be witnessed

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 78.52$.

Sell on rise to 74.8-76 with a  stop loss of 7852$.

Expect lower range of 73.2-70.4 as the opportunity arises

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Traders holding long positions can hold long positions with a stop loss of 4.10$.

Traders who are already holding long positions can Book profits at 4.45$-4.71$ as the opportunity arises.

USD/INR SPOT ::

The technical continues to favours
upside as long as 44.75/60 holds. Favoured view for the day expects prices to be in the 44.7-45.42. A close above 45.39 would trigger fresh buying interest targeting 45.89 and thereafter 46.9

 

 

 

 

EXPECTATIONS FOR 13TH MAY 2010

MCX Gold June: Rally to 18300- 18330 to cap for decline to 18035 or lower. While 18390 cap, we can expect fall to 17890 level. S1: 18160 S2: 18080 R1: 18300 R2: 18380  

MCX Silver July: Supports are at 29730 followed by 29500. Ideally, supports to hold for 30325 or even higher to 30785. S1: 29770 S2: 29590 R1: 30110 R2: 30290

MCX Copper June: As mentioned yesterday, a consolidation is in place. Supports are at 310 - 311 levels now, only a break above 322/323 levels to hint bullish strength for 328 - 330 levels now. S1: 313.85 S2: 309.85 R1: 320.85 R2: 324.85

MCX CrudeOil May: While prices stay below 3539 levels look for a dip towards 3381 or even lower. Only a direct rise a 3539 to hint at bullish strength again. S1: 3355 S2: 3315 R1: 3425 R2: 3465 

MCX Zinc May: Minor bullish tendancies seen. Initial resistance is at 94.50 - 95.00 levels. Ideally prices should get capped here. Supports are at 92.50 followed by 91. S1: 92.70 S2: 91.70 R1: 94.50 R2: 95.50

MCX Lead May: Resistance at 93 - 93.50 to cap upside attempts for a fall back towards 88 levels. Unexpected rise past 95.25 to cause doubts on our bearish view. S1: 90.25 S2: 89.25 R1: 92 R2: 93 

MCX Nickel May: Is in a consolidation mode now. Dips to 1009 followed by 995 to hold for a test for 1045/1050 or even higher. Only a direct fall below 965 to dent our bullish view. S1: 1007.50 S2: 995.50 R1: 1027.50 R2: 1039.50 

MCX Nickel May: Is in a consolidation mode now. Dips to 1009 followed by 995 to hold for a test for 1045/1050 or even higher. Only a direct fall below 965 to dent our bullish view. S1: 1007.50 S2: 995.50 R1: 1027.50 R2: 1039.50

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

 

Hold long position with a stop loss of 29365

Expect higher range of 30210-30895 to be tested.

 

SPOT GOLD ::

Hold long positions with a  stop loss of 1226.

Expect higher range of 1247-1269 to be tested.

The trend line shown in red color is being tested and crossed once now on closing. Needs to be seen if  price sustains above the trend line. Violation of the low of 1226$ will mean violation of the trend line also.

Traders can buy above 1249 with low of the day stop loss or 1226$ whichever is lower.

 

TECHNICAL BIAS ON GOLD ::

 

The trend looks to be seeking a consolidation mode after having drifter lower from 1248 region that was on discussion yesterday. Favoured view expects intial attempts to edge up possibly towards 1241, but less likely above 1248 during the day. A fall below 1232 should add more reason to the bearish suspicions, in which case 1223/16 should be called for. However, even as we ponder on bearish signals, uptrend remains intact with successive close above the record peak of 1227. The year end projected view of 1330 looks even nearer now. Unless prices close below 1208/1202 region for a day or two, the technical structure favours even more violent upsides, when compared to the short spurts witnessed in the last fortnight.

 

SPOT SILVER ::

Traders can Hold long positions with a stop loss of 19$.

Corrective dip to 19.41$-19.13$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 19$.

Expect higher range of 19.75$-20.3$ to be tested.

USD/INR spot ::

Yesterday’s drift lower has again
taken us to the lower extremeity of the present range, which has set
up conditions for a swing higher as long as 45.75/60 holds. However
it would require a close above 45.39 to trigger fresh buying interest
targeting 45.89 and thereafter 46.9

NYMEX CRUDE :: 

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 78.52$.

Cover short positions at 74.6-72.35$ as the opportunity arises.

NYMEX GAS ::

Resistance will be at 4.39$.

Support will be at 4.10$.

Corrective dip to 4.24$-4.18$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 4.10$.

Sell on fall below 4$ with high of the day stop loss

 

EXPECTATIONS FOR 12TH MAY 2010

MCX Gold June: As expected gold prices took out the previous highs. Dips to 17870-17900 to hold support for a rally towards 18265-18310.Fall below 17810 to lead into a corrective decline.
S1 17825 S2 17745 R1 17965 R2 18045

MCX Silver July:  Dips to 29155 followed by 28925 to hold for a test of 29735 initially or even higher  towards 29965.
S1 29330 S2 29150 R1 29670 R2 29850

MCX Copper June: Supports at 310.60-312.60 to hold for a test of 322.50-323.50 levels again. Unexpected fall below 310.60 to dent our bullish expectations.
S1 315 S2 311 R1 322 R2 326

MCX Crude Oil May: While prices stay below 3556 levels look for a dip towards 3398 or even lower. Only direct rise above 3557 to hint at bullish strength again.
S1 3425 S2 3385 R1 3495 R2 3535

MCX Zinc May: Minor bullish tendencies seen. Initial resistance is at 94.50-95.00 levels. Ideally prices should get capped here.supports are at 92.50 followed by 91.00.
S1 91.75 S2 90.75 R1 93.55 R2 94.55

MCX Lead May: Resistances at 93-93.50 to cap upside attempts for a fall back towards 88 levels. Unexpected rise past 95.25 to cause doubts on our bearish view.
S1 90.80 S2 89.80 R1 92.60 R2 93.60

MCX Nickel May:In consolidation mode now. Dips to 1009 followed by 995 to hold for a test for 1045-1050 or even higher.Only a direct fall below 965 to dent our bullish view.
S1 1014 S2 1002 R1 1034 R2:1046

MCX Natural Gas May: Dips to 185-186 to hold for 195-198 or even higher to 205 levels now.
S1 184.40 S2 180.40 R1 190.40 R2 194.40

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-

Hold long position with a stop loss of 28370.  

Corrective dip to 29148-28702 can be used for buying.

Expect higher range of 29927-31152 to be tested

MCX GOLD TRADING STRTERGY;-Traders still holding long positions can use rise to 18225-18465 to exit long and take profits.

Volatility is wide therefore risk is higher on any directional trade.

14 day RSI is likely to show negative divergence shortly.

Spot Gold > Yesterday at 11 30pm=1218.75. Now 1227. Overnight high=1233.65. 

USD/INR(Reuters spot): Close 45.0700. Now 45.21.

MCX Kilo Gold: Close=17897. High 18040.Expected opening in MCX Kilo Gold: Near 18037

INDIA'S GOLD ETF VOLUMES CROSS 10 TONNES IN APRIL (Source Reuters)

India's gold collection under exchange-traded funds more-than-doubled to cross the 10-tonne mark in April, when the yellow metal gained more than 5 percent, data from the funds showed.
Volumes crossed the 10-tonne mark for the first time since 2007, when Benchmark Mutual Fund launched its first gold ETF. Though gold collections under ETFs are growing, they remain miniscule against India's imports of about 400-700 tonnes annually.
Gold ETFs -- instruments that can be traded like shares and are backed by physical gold holdings -- are more than three years old and the segment may get crowded with some other funds planning to enter.
The following table shows ETFs' gold holdings in metric tonnes and their value in billion rupees: 

    FUNDS         End Apr 2010           End Apr 2009
                        Gold    *AUM            Gold     *AUM
    =============================================================
    Benchmark     4.764   7.98            2.012    2.86
    UTI                 2.185   3.18            1.329    0.50
    Kotak             0.738   1.30            0.341    0.50
    Reliance         1.637   2.62            1.249    1.82
    Quantum         0.106   0.19            0.050    0.07
    SBI GETS       0.633   1.07            NA       NA
    ===========================================================
                        10.063   16.34           4.981    7.01

USD/INR spot: . Pull backs faced resistance at 45.3
yesterday on anticipated lines. Favoured view expects strength of
these rallies to slow down if unable to clear 45.3/45.34. A close above
45.39 would extend bullish sentiments targeting 45.89 and thereafter
46.9

TECHNICALLY GOLD;-Bargain hunting likely to continue support prices and edge higher. 1227 should give an intermediate floor to early trades, and
attempt to edge higher towards 1237 initially and then 1248. The long term view of 1330 is back in the horizon

 

SPOT GOLD:-Hold long positions with a  stop loss of 1200.

Expect higher range of 1243-1277 to be tested.

 The trend line shown in red color is being tested.

It needs to be seen how it can sustain at higher levels.

The trend line is likely to offer resistance

 

 

SPOT SILVER;-

Traders can Hold long positions with a stop loss of 18.10$.

Corrective dip to 19.02$-18.61 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 18.10$.

Expect higher range of 19.68$-20.75$ to be tested.

 

 

EXPECTATIONS FOR 11TH MAY 2010

EXPECTATIONS  FOR  11TH  MAY  2010 ::

MCX Gold June:  Supports are near 17510 followed by 17335 levels now. Ideally, this support should hold for a rise towards 17730 or the next projected target near 17995 levels. Fall below 17383 to dent our bullish expectations
S1 17530 S2 17450 R1 17670 R2 17750

MCX Silver July:  Critical support is at 27930 now. Dips to 28160 followed by 27930 to hold for a test of trendline resistance at 28850-28880.
S1 28295 S2 28115 R1 28635 R2 28815

MCX Copper June: Dips to 316.40-317.40 to hold support for a rally towards 327.40-329.40 levels. This is our favored view. Fall below 314.40 to cause doubts Fall below 314.40 to cause doubts on our bullish view.
S1 318 S2 314 R1 325 R2 329

MCX Crude Oil May: While prices stay below 3525 levels look for a dip towards 3367 or even lower. Only a direct rise above 3524 to at bullish strength again.
S1 3415 S2 3375 R1 3485 R2 3525

MCX Zinc May: Resistances at 96-97 to cap for a decline towards 93 or even lower.
S1 94.60 S2 93.60 R1 96.40 R2 97.40

MCX Lead May: While 97-98 caps upside attempts look for a sharp decline towards 85 levels or even lower again
S1 92.80 S2 91.80 R1 94.60 R2 95.60

MCX Nickel May: Dips to 1024-25 could hold dips for a test of 1065-75 levels. This is our favored view. Direct fall below 1005 to dent our bullish expectations
S1 1022 S2 1010 R1 1042 R2:1054

MCX Natural Gas May: Supports at 184-85 to hold for test of crucial resistance at 193 followed by 201S1 186
S2 182 R1 192 R2 196

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :: 

The low registered yesterday was 28009 and closed at 28480. The corrective level range of 28372-27763 was tested and closed higher.
Traders who managed to buy had the trading opportunity to benefit.

Hold long position with a stop loss of 28000. Traders holding long positions can Book profits at 28717-29308 as the opportunity arises

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

The stop loss of 17716 to hold long was violated in the first 5 minutes as Gold had opened with gap down.

The RSI exits the overbought zone simultaneously.

Exit long and on sell on rise to 17715-17873 with a stop loss of 17995.

Expect sideways volatility with the band of 17995-17358 for some time before making decisive move out of the range 17995-17358 band.

  

SPOT GOLD :: 

Overall, use rise to 1210$-1232$ to exit long and by chance if traders wish to continue long then keep a stop loss of 1183$.

Sell on fall below 1183$.

 

SPOT SILVER ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 18.10$ and use rise to 18.77$-19.36$ to book profit.

On fall below 18.10$, a slide could be witnessed.

Overall expect volatility in the range of 18.84$-17$.

A breakout and close above 18.84$ can show a rally in Silver

  

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Cover short positions on dip to 77$-74.58$.

 Sell on fall below 74$ with high of the day stop loss.

Traders who are still holding short can keep a stop loss of 80.4$.

Sell on rise t 78.3$ with a stop loss of 80.4$.

 

USD/INR: (Last 45) ::

Pull back from the lows of 44.66 is likely to fizzle
out if unable to clear 45.3/45.34. Need to close above 45.3 to dilute
the bearish sentiments.

ALLUMINUM LME ::

A trend line violation can be seen on the chart. Attempt to pullback above the trend line is being witnessed in last couple of trading session.

Resistance will be at 2190$-2240$.

Sell on rise to the resistance of 2190$ or above with a stop loss of 2240$.

Expect the support of 1965$ to be tested. In case of further slide and close below 1965$, the slide can continue further.

A minor pullback is possible towards the resistance levels of 2190$-2240$.

LME LEAD ::

A breakdown was witnessed last week. It tested the support of 1915$ and pull back to test the broken trend line.

Resistance will be at 2130$-2180$-.

Exit long and sell on rise to the resistance with a stop loss of 1875$.

On fall and close below the support of 1915$ can bring about a further slide.

A near term sideways movement within the band of 2391$-1875$ is possible

 

LME NICKLE ::

Nickel exits the overbought zone and slide down to test back the earlier breakout point of 21150$.

The low registered last week was 20625$.

The fall was sharp therefore a minor bounce back is being witnessed from the earlier resistance which offered support.

Expect volatility within the band of 27590 and 20625$.

The objective can be to exit long and sell on rise to 25650 or above.

Further selling pressure can be witnessed on fall and close below 20625$

 

LME COPPER ::

A trend line breakdown was seen last week. A recovery attempt is being witnessed this week as it pulled back to the trend line.

Overall objective can be to sell and exit long on the rise from current price of 7105$ or above with a stop loss of 7400$.

Support will be at 6638$-6230$-5804$. The support levels are likely to be tested in due course of time.

 

LME ZINC ::

Support of 2188$ was violated last week and it tested the 52 week moving average. The last important higher bottom of 1935$ was also tested as the low made last week was 1995$.

Resistance will be at 2188$-2280$.

Support will be at 1995$-1935$. On slide below 1935$, the fall could see further acceleration.

Sell on rise to 2188$ or above with a stop loss of 2280$.

A rise and close above 2280$ can bring about a rise within the sideways band to test the upper range of 2545$.

 

ENJOY  TRADING !!!!!