BIG PICTURE VIEW ON GOLD:-
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD makes a new high, crossing its peak of 1033$ formed in March 2008.
The RSI has moved above the 70 level.
Historically, we have seen that Gold has not sustained the move above 70 level for the long time and near term reaction down is seen.
The breakout spike is in progress which can carry the momentum a bit higher.
In long term the depth of the valley is from 1033$ to 681$ which 352$.
If the project it up from 1033$ then in long term the potential can be rise towards 1385$. All that can happen in long term but in short need to see where the current move could get exhausted.
The long term view can happen with series of higher top and higher bottom with intermediate deeper correction at times.
Yesterday’s low of 1035$ hold the immediate up trend.
In the early morning trades, the price is around 1050$.
Traders stop loss for the day can be 1043$ and the loose stop loss can be 1035$ to hold long positions.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON SILVER;-
International spot price shown the breakout situation on the weekly charts.
If the breakout sustains till the end of the week then expect the lower top and the top to get tested in time to come.
The lower top is placed at 19.46$ and 21.35$
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-A trend line breakout is being attempt yesterday.
Wide intra-day volatility is being witnessed which can be noticed from the daily bar’s wider movement.
The close is above the trend line but further resistance will be at 73.20-73.6$.
Support will be at 70$-68.8$.
One day up and another day down kind of movement is being witnessed.
Yesterday was up then today can be intra-day down unless is sustains above resistance range. Resistance could be tested for intra-day reaction.
Cover short positions on dip to support level as the opportunity arises.
COPPER HIGH GRADE:-The RSI has started moving up on Copper.
Copper has been moving sideways in a wider band of 296.6$-264$.
In last few days, we saw Copper taking support at 264$ and recovering.
Expect the resistance of 296$ to be tested.
USD/INR:-USD INR, USD slips to 46.08 and is now testing the minimum conservative lower target of46.
The head and shoulder pattern coming into existence is going to strengthen rupee overall in medium term.
Near term support is around 46 and then around 45.50.
We could find recovery in USD coming from lower level.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON USD/INR:-
The big picture on USD INR exhibits a head and shoulder pattern which can be of Rs 5 considering its distance from the peak to the neckline.
If that is so and the pattern remains in existence without giving false breakdown situation then the fall can go all the way down to 41.
The picture looks too good to be true.
Therefore, we need to monitor tight as head and shoulder patterns can be deceptive at times.
On conservative basis, expect the lower range of 46.2-46 for immediate near term is possible.
If it sustains below 46 then the slide can get extended towards 44.50 in medium term on USD.
The level of 46.88-47 becomes important resistance. Any rise and sustained close above 47 would confirm a false breakdown situation
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Indecisive spinning top has been formed.
Support will be at 27111-27100.
Sell on fall below 27100 with high of the day stop loss.
Buy on rise above 27500 with low of the day stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-Traders by chance holding long positions can maintain a stop loss at 15758. Look for rise to 15912-15986 to take profit.
Resistance could be witnessed at higher range
INTRA DAYS MOVES ON GOLD COPPER CRUDE;-
GOLD (spot): Leaning down (Last 1047)
1060 levels have attracted selling as anticipated and looks to swing lower. Favoured view expects 1054 to hold upswings for a swing lower towards 1044-39 before any deal of buying evolves. Dollar looks to be bouncing back on the last trading of the weak, offering additional set up for such a bounce back.
Alternatively a pull back above 1054 could rekindle bullishness which would again open room for a retest for 1061 or an extended upswing towards 1080, which looks less favoured now
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Nymex Crude(Nov):
Yesterday’s fall towards 69 evolved on anticipated lines, and the swing higher towards the market close, has failed to close above the declining trendline which is not positive for the counter. However, 71 levels offers an outside to complete a flag formation so that the upswing evolves again. Favoured view expects a 72.4-69.5 range.
Comex Copper (Dec): Last
Yesterday’s bullish breakout has taken us towards 2.90 levels. Today’s near 4% plus reading in Chinese Copper futures looks misleading as it is only catching up with the week long holiday move. Expect range trading in the 2.82-2.90 region
MCX Gold Dec: Support is at 15623 breaks below that prices could test 15503.50/15474. As long as 15623 holds support we could expect 15953. S1: 15689 S2: 15541 R1: 15990 R2: 16140
MCX Silver December: Crucial support is 26882 breaks below that could see prices testing 26530. As long as 26882 holds support we could expect a rally towards 27602/27756. S1: 27046 S2:26795 R1: 27546 R2: 27800
MCX Copper November: Dips to 286/288 to find support for a move higher towards 301.50/302.45, break below 284 will negate this bullish view. S1:290.70 S2: 286.90 R1: 298.90 R2: 302.70.
MCX Crude Oil October: Dips to 3263/3245 to find support for a move higher towards 3379, break below 3208 will negate this bullish view. S1:3284 S2:3244 R1:3364 R2:3404.
MCX Zinc Oct: Dips to 94.30/93.90 to find support for a move higher towards 96.50 /97.0. Fall below
92.0 to create doubts.S1: 93.80 S2: 92.90 R1: 95.80 R2: 96.60
MCX Lead Oct: Dips to 103.5/103.1 to find support for a move higher towards 107 /108 levels.
Fall below 101.5 to negate this bullish view.S1: 103 S2:102 R1: 105 R2:106
MCX Nickel Oct: Dips to 870/866 to find support for a move higher towards 920 levels. Fall below 844
to raise doubts.S1:877 S2:860 R1:910 R2:923.
MCX Natural Gas Oct: Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to 233/235 to find resistance for a move
lower towards 220 / 217 levels. Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to A rise above 241 to make picture
bullish again. S1:227 S2:223 R1:234 R2:238
Friday, October 9, 2009
Monday, October 5, 2009
EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD AND MCX GOLD AND SILVER FOR INTRA DAY AND FOR THE WEEK AEAD
GOLD (spot): +ve bias targetting 1015/6
After all the choppy trades of the last week, repeated attempts to fall past 985 has been unsuccessful which is good for the metal, and has accumulated enough for a straight move towards 1015/6. Strength at this point would be crucial for the next leap which could either be a one day spike towards 1032/6 for a sharp fall, or continued and powerful rises.
Favoured view expects 1015/6 and may be 1032/5, but beyond that visibility is blurred at this point.
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Nymex Crude(Nov): Expect upswings before more falls
Another choppy day is in store. However if prices manage to float above 70.8 expect the momentum to continue upward towards 71.8/72, and perhaps 74.3
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Comex Copper (Dec): Expect upswings before more falls
2.64 region likelyto hold for an upswing towards 2.70 initally and in an extended scenario 2.81 for a turn lower
SPOT GOLD:-Support will be at 990$-982$.
Resistance will be at 1009$, 1019$ and 1024-1033$.
Earlier breakout point was 990$ and subsequently Gold has managed to remain above it as shown by the horizontal line.
Use rise to book profit on long positions held earlier at resistance level as the opportunity arises.
SPOT SILVER:-Since the low of 8.4$, Silver has been making higher top and higher bottom but the angle of ascent looks more to be pullback of the fall from 21.35$ to 8.4$.
Support will be at 15.7$.
Resistance will be at 16.74$-17.3$-17.66$.
Use rise to take profit on long positions and maintain a stop loss of 15.7$
ALLUMINUM LME :-The rise look more to be a corrective in nature.
ALUMINUM must not fall below 1700$. If it does then it can move back down to lower level with lower top and lower top formation.
Immediate support is at 1774$.
Resistance will be at 1895$.
Immediately, Aluminum must cross 1895$.
LEAD LME;-The monthly chart display the 50% pullback of the fall from the peak of 3885$ to 850$ has been tested.
50% retracement level was placed at 2365$ and high made was 2511$. Currently a correction of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is being witnessed.
Last close was at 2115$.
Last month low was at 2020$ where support could be witnessed. Overall a sideways to correction behavior of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is likely to be witnessed
NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has already been into a correction of the rise from 9325$ to 21150$.
The 38.2$ retracement has been tested.
Support is being witnessed around 16800$-16225$.
Resistance will be at 17900$-18130$.
A rise and close above 18130$ can begin the rise or the rise can still be a part of correction movement from the recent peak of 21150$.
Possibility of resistance to be tested in near term is possible
ZINC LME:-The monthly chart shows the trend line breakout.
Support will be at 1850$ and 1780$-1745$.
Resistance will be at 1935$-2007$.
A breakout and close above 2007$ can confirm the breakout. If that happens then rally could get extended towards 2410$ which is the 38.2% retracement of the fall from the peak of 4600$ to 1058$.
COPPER LME:-A channeled up move was seen in the rally that began from 2815$ to 6540$.
Support of 5815$ which was the higher bottom is being tested and so also the lower channel line.
Expect selling pressure to increase if the support of 5800$ is violated on closing basis with negative candle.
If the recovery has to be witnessed then it can be from current level for sideways movement at least.
Traders willing to take risk can buy at current level or at 5815 with a stop loss of 5800$.
Resistance will be at 5970$-6100$-6200$. In case of rise and close above 6200$ then sideways movement could continue to test the recent high
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 25715.
Hold long positions with a stop loss 25715 and use rise to 26080-26186 to exit long.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26570
GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15535.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15737.
Traders who are already holding long position can look for rise to 15686 or above can be used to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise above 15740
WEEKLY MCX Gold Dec : Base might have been seen in the 15267 / 15298 region. Rally to 16182 might begin this week. Price needs to fall below 15167 to hint at failure of this bullish expectation. Next supports are near 14957 / 14926. S1: 15475 S2: 15350 R1:15675 R2: 15750
WEEKLY:- MCX Silver December: Supports at 25379/24897 could hold corrective dips for next upturn that could develop into a rally towards 28913.Fall below 24736 is needed to hint that this bullish view might not be valid as the structure would have weakened more than expected. S1: 25820 S2: 25545 R1: 26095 R2: 26370.
WEEKLY;-MCX Copper Nov: Rise above 290 should see the price attempting recovery. Resistance is at 296.35/296.60 and 300.30.It has to rise above 300.50 to suggest that the corrective dip might have ended and the next rally might have begun.Fall below 281.60 would show that it could fall further to 272.90 or even lower. S1: 282.20 S2: 279.20 R1: 288.90 R2: 292.75.
MCX Natural Gas Oct : Dips 223 / 220 to find support for a move higher towards 232 235 levels .Fall below 214 to negate this view. S1: 221 S2:217 R1:229 R2:234
MCX Nickel Oct : While above 824 , expect prices to rally towards 850 / 855 levels . Fall below 824 to turn the picture bearish S1: 825 S2:812 R1: 847 R2: 860
MCX Zinc Oct: While above 89.30 , expect prices to rally towards 91.30 / 91.75 levels .Fall below 89.30 to negate this bullish view. S1:89.35 S2:88.40 R1:91.25 R2:92.50
MCX Lead Oct : Supports at 102.50 , while above 101.40 , expect prices to rally towards 105.40 .Fall below 101.40 to negate this bullish view. S1:102.0 S2: 101.0 R1:104.10 R2: 105.20
After all the choppy trades of the last week, repeated attempts to fall past 985 has been unsuccessful which is good for the metal, and has accumulated enough for a straight move towards 1015/6. Strength at this point would be crucial for the next leap which could either be a one day spike towards 1032/6 for a sharp fall, or continued and powerful rises.
Favoured view expects 1015/6 and may be 1032/5, but beyond that visibility is blurred at this point.
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Nymex Crude(Nov): Expect upswings before more falls
Another choppy day is in store. However if prices manage to float above 70.8 expect the momentum to continue upward towards 71.8/72, and perhaps 74.3
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Comex Copper (Dec): Expect upswings before more falls
2.64 region likelyto hold for an upswing towards 2.70 initally and in an extended scenario 2.81 for a turn lower
SPOT GOLD:-Support will be at 990$-982$.
Resistance will be at 1009$, 1019$ and 1024-1033$.
Earlier breakout point was 990$ and subsequently Gold has managed to remain above it as shown by the horizontal line.
Use rise to book profit on long positions held earlier at resistance level as the opportunity arises.
SPOT SILVER:-Since the low of 8.4$, Silver has been making higher top and higher bottom but the angle of ascent looks more to be pullback of the fall from 21.35$ to 8.4$.
Support will be at 15.7$.
Resistance will be at 16.74$-17.3$-17.66$.
Use rise to take profit on long positions and maintain a stop loss of 15.7$
ALLUMINUM LME :-The rise look more to be a corrective in nature.
ALUMINUM must not fall below 1700$. If it does then it can move back down to lower level with lower top and lower top formation.
Immediate support is at 1774$.
Resistance will be at 1895$.
Immediately, Aluminum must cross 1895$.
LEAD LME;-The monthly chart display the 50% pullback of the fall from the peak of 3885$ to 850$ has been tested.
50% retracement level was placed at 2365$ and high made was 2511$. Currently a correction of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is being witnessed.
Last close was at 2115$.
Last month low was at 2020$ where support could be witnessed. Overall a sideways to correction behavior of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is likely to be witnessed
NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has already been into a correction of the rise from 9325$ to 21150$.
The 38.2$ retracement has been tested.
Support is being witnessed around 16800$-16225$.
Resistance will be at 17900$-18130$.
A rise and close above 18130$ can begin the rise or the rise can still be a part of correction movement from the recent peak of 21150$.
Possibility of resistance to be tested in near term is possible
ZINC LME:-The monthly chart shows the trend line breakout.
Support will be at 1850$ and 1780$-1745$.
Resistance will be at 1935$-2007$.
A breakout and close above 2007$ can confirm the breakout. If that happens then rally could get extended towards 2410$ which is the 38.2% retracement of the fall from the peak of 4600$ to 1058$.
COPPER LME:-A channeled up move was seen in the rally that began from 2815$ to 6540$.
Support of 5815$ which was the higher bottom is being tested and so also the lower channel line.
Expect selling pressure to increase if the support of 5800$ is violated on closing basis with negative candle.
If the recovery has to be witnessed then it can be from current level for sideways movement at least.
Traders willing to take risk can buy at current level or at 5815 with a stop loss of 5800$.
Resistance will be at 5970$-6100$-6200$. In case of rise and close above 6200$ then sideways movement could continue to test the recent high
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 25715.
Hold long positions with a stop loss 25715 and use rise to 26080-26186 to exit long.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26570
GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15535.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15737.
Traders who are already holding long position can look for rise to 15686 or above can be used to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise above 15740
WEEKLY MCX Gold Dec : Base might have been seen in the 15267 / 15298 region. Rally to 16182 might begin this week. Price needs to fall below 15167 to hint at failure of this bullish expectation. Next supports are near 14957 / 14926. S1: 15475 S2: 15350 R1:15675 R2: 15750
WEEKLY:- MCX Silver December: Supports at 25379/24897 could hold corrective dips for next upturn that could develop into a rally towards 28913.Fall below 24736 is needed to hint that this bullish view might not be valid as the structure would have weakened more than expected. S1: 25820 S2: 25545 R1: 26095 R2: 26370.
WEEKLY;-MCX Copper Nov: Rise above 290 should see the price attempting recovery. Resistance is at 296.35/296.60 and 300.30.It has to rise above 300.50 to suggest that the corrective dip might have ended and the next rally might have begun.Fall below 281.60 would show that it could fall further to 272.90 or even lower. S1: 282.20 S2: 279.20 R1: 288.90 R2: 292.75.
MCX Natural Gas Oct : Dips 223 / 220 to find support for a move higher towards 232 235 levels .Fall below 214 to negate this view. S1: 221 S2:217 R1:229 R2:234
MCX Nickel Oct : While above 824 , expect prices to rally towards 850 / 855 levels . Fall below 824 to turn the picture bearish S1: 825 S2:812 R1: 847 R2: 860
MCX Zinc Oct: While above 89.30 , expect prices to rally towards 91.30 / 91.75 levels .Fall below 89.30 to negate this bullish view. S1:89.35 S2:88.40 R1:91.25 R2:92.50
MCX Lead Oct : Supports at 102.50 , while above 101.40 , expect prices to rally towards 105.40 .Fall below 101.40 to negate this bullish view. S1:102.0 S2: 101.0 R1:104.10 R2: 105.20
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