OUTLOOK ON COMEX AND MCX GOLD SILVER FOR INTRA MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WITH INTRADAY VIEW FOR 09TH OCTOBER 2009

BIG PICTURE VIEW ON GOLD:-
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD makes a new high, crossing its peak of 1033$ formed in March 2008.
The RSI has moved above the 70 level.
Historically, we have seen that Gold has not sustained the move above 70 level for the long time and near term reaction down is seen.
The breakout spike is in progress which can carry the momentum a bit higher.
In long term the depth of the valley is from 1033$ to 681$ which 352$.
If the project it up from 1033$ then in long term the potential can be rise towards 1385$. All that can happen in long term but in short need to see where the current move could get exhausted.
The long term view can happen with series of higher top and higher bottom with intermediate deeper correction at times.
Yesterday’s low of 1035$ hold the immediate up trend.
In the early morning trades, the price is around 1050$.
Traders stop loss for the day can be 1043$ and the loose stop loss can be 1035$ to hold long positions.

BIG PICTURE VIEW ON SILVER;-
International spot price shown the breakout situation on the weekly charts.
If the breakout sustains till the end of the week then expect the lower top and the top to get tested in time to come.
The lower top is placed at 19.46$ and 21.35$


NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-A trend line breakout is being attempt yesterday.
Wide intra-day volatility is being witnessed which can be noticed from the daily bar’s wider movement.
The close is above the trend line but further resistance will be at 73.20-73.6$.
Support will be at 70$-68.8$.
One day up and another day down kind of movement is being witnessed.
Yesterday was up then today can be intra-day down unless is sustains above resistance range. Resistance could be tested for intra-day reaction.
Cover short positions on dip to support level as the opportunity arises.

COPPER HIGH GRADE:-The RSI has started moving up on Copper.
Copper has been moving sideways in a wider band of 296.6$-264$.
In last few days, we saw Copper taking support at 264$ and recovering.
Expect the resistance of 296$ to be tested.

USD/INR:-USD INR, USD slips to 46.08 and is now testing the minimum conservative lower target of46.
The head and shoulder pattern coming into existence is going to strengthen rupee overall in medium term.
Near term support is around 46 and then around 45.50.
We could find recovery in USD coming from lower level.

BIG PICTURE VIEW ON USD/INR:-
The big picture on USD INR exhibits a head and shoulder pattern which can be of Rs 5 considering its distance from the peak to the neckline.
If that is so and the pattern remains in existence without giving false breakdown situation then the fall can go all the way down to 41.
The picture looks too good to be true.
Therefore, we need to monitor tight as head and shoulder patterns can be deceptive at times.
On conservative basis, expect the lower range of 46.2-46 for immediate near term is possible.
If it sustains below 46 then the slide can get extended towards 44.50 in medium term on USD.
The level of 46.88-47 becomes important resistance. Any rise and sustained close above 47 would confirm a false breakdown situation

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Indecisive spinning top has been formed.
Support will be at 27111-27100.
Sell on fall below 27100 with high of the day stop loss.
Buy on rise above 27500 with low of the day stop loss.


MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-Traders by chance holding long positions can maintain a stop loss at 15758. Look for rise to 15912-15986 to take profit.
Resistance could be witnessed at higher range

INTRA DAYS MOVES ON GOLD COPPER CRUDE;-

GOLD (spot): Leaning down (Last 1047)

1060 levels have attracted selling as anticipated and looks to swing lower. Favoured view expects 1054 to hold upswings for a swing lower towards 1044-39 before any deal of buying evolves. Dollar looks to be bouncing back on the last trading of the weak, offering additional set up for such a bounce back.



Alternatively a pull back above 1054 could rekindle bullishness which would again open room for a retest for 1061 or an extended upswing towards 1080, which looks less favoured now

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Nymex Crude(Nov):



Yesterday’s fall towards 69 evolved on anticipated lines, and the swing higher towards the market close, has failed to close above the declining trendline which is not positive for the counter. However, 71 levels offers an outside to complete a flag formation so that the upswing evolves again. Favoured view expects a 72.4-69.5 range.


Comex Copper (Dec): Last

Yesterday’s bullish breakout has taken us towards 2.90 levels. Today’s near 4% plus reading in Chinese Copper futures looks misleading as it is only catching up with the week long holiday move. Expect range trading in the 2.82-2.90 region


MCX Gold Dec: Support is at 15623 breaks below that prices could test 15503.50/15474. As long as 15623 holds support we could expect 15953. S1: 15689 S2: 15541 R1: 15990 R2: 16140

MCX Silver December: Crucial support is 26882 breaks below that could see prices testing 26530. As long as 26882 holds support we could expect a rally towards 27602/27756. S1: 27046 S2:26795 R1: 27546 R2: 27800

MCX Copper November: Dips to 286/288 to find support for a move higher towards 301.50/302.45, break below 284 will negate this bullish view. S1:290.70 S2: 286.90 R1: 298.90 R2: 302.70.

MCX Crude Oil October: Dips to 3263/3245 to find support for a move higher towards 3379, break below 3208 will negate this bullish view. S1:3284 S2:3244 R1:3364 R2:3404.


MCX Zinc Oct: Dips to 94.30/93.90 to find support for a move higher towards 96.50 /97.0. Fall below
92.0 to create doubts.S1: 93.80 S2: 92.90 R1: 95.80 R2: 96.60



MCX Lead Oct: Dips to 103.5/103.1 to find support for a move higher towards 107 /108 levels.
Fall below 101.5 to negate this bullish view.S1: 103 S2:102 R1: 105 R2:106



MCX Nickel Oct: Dips to 870/866 to find support for a move higher towards 920 levels. Fall below 844
to raise doubts.S1:877 S2:860 R1:910 R2:923.


MCX Natural Gas Oct: Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to 233/235 to find resistance for a move
lower towards 220 / 217 levels. Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to A rise above 241 to make picture
bullish again. S1:227 S2:223 R1:234 R2:238