VIEWS AS ON 9 TH APRIL

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :Range of movement is 864$-897$.
Yesterday low of 877$ as the immediate support but sell on fall below 877$ and keep a stop loss at 897$.
Resistance will be at 891$-897$.
Traders willing to take risk can wait for a rise above 891$ and when it falls below 891$ then sell with high above 891$ as the stop loss or 897$ whichever is higher
Major selling pressure can be witnessed only on fall and close below864$.
We could find price moving up to test the violated trend line before significant attempts to fall down lower. Above 897$ a rise to 910$ or towards the trend line which is placed around the same level is possible and will be confirmed

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-Support is being witnessed at lower range of 12.16$-11.89$.
Expect further sharper selling pressure on fall and close below 11.89$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 12.77$ overall.
Resistance will be at 12.49 and 12.77$.
Trades can cover short positions at current price to 11.89$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter short below 11.89$. Alternatively, wait for a rise above 12.49$ and when it falls below 12.49$ then sell with high above 12.49$ as the stop loss from purely intra-day angle. Or Sell on rise to 12.49 or above with sl of 12.77$ which is of wider range in terms of stop loss difference

NYMEX CRUDE :-Support of 47.20$ is under threat of violation.
Failing to sustain at higher range of 54$-56$ has been putting pressure of the support regularly to bounce up later again.
Expect selling pressure to be witnessed below 47$.
Use rise towards 52$-54$-56$ to exit long positions in loss or profit.
Re-enter long position on rise and close above 56$.
Traders already holding long positions need to maintain a stop loss of 47$

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is down.
Sell on rise to Rs. 14325 – Rs. 14438 with stop loss of Rs. 14502.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 14184 – Rs. 14071.
Add more on fall below Rs. 14020.
On sustain fall prices are likely to test the level of Rs. 13848 in coming sessions.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14438 and when it falls below Rs. 14438 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14438 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 14325 – Rs. 14184 range or below

MCX SILVER STRATERGY:The trend is down.
Sell on fall below Rs. 20180 with high of the day as a stop loss.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 20761 and when it falls below Rs. 20761 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 20761 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 20542 – Rs. 20334 range or below

VIEWS WITHH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 8TH APRIL 2009

MCX Gold June: As expected we saw a pullback to 14285/14320 levels. Could extend to 14430 or even higher towards 14510. Dips can be expected to find support near 14220/14240 levels. However, in the bigger picture as long as 14675/14710 levels caps upside attempts we expect a break below 14030 andtest 13670 levels.S1: 14130 S2: 14030 R1: 14430 R2: 14510

MCX Silver May: Expected to consolidate between 20375/20460 and 20625/20710 and rise higher towards 20930 or even higher towards 21080.Unexpected fall below 20375 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 20460 S2: 20350 R1: 20625 R2: 20700

MCX Copper April: Consolidation between 216 to 225 in progress preparing for a 228 or even higher towards 232/234 levels. However,fall below 215 to dent our bullish expectations and result in a sharp fall towards 208 or even lower towards 198 levels.S1: 213 S2: 206 R1: 224 R2: 230.

MCX Crude Oil April : Resistances are at 2510 followed by 2560 on the upside. Favored view expects resistances to cap for a decline towards 2360.consolidation to continue and rise towards 2775 or even higher.S1: 2400 S2: 2360 R1: 2510 R2: 2560

MCX Zinc April: Prices are likely to move down and find support at 66.1 levels. Unable to hold this support may take it further down to 65.0 levels.Moves above 68.5 to negate our bearish view. S1: 66.5 S2: 65.7 R1: 68.2 R2: 69.5

MCX Lead April: Supports are at 66.0 and 65.0. Prices are likely to hold this support and move up towards 68.2 levels. Unexpected fall below 65.0 to dent our bullish view.S1: 66.0 S2: 65.0 R1: 67.3 R2: 68.5

MCX Nickel April: Up moves beyond 552 may take prices further up towards 560/565 levels.Fall below 530 to dent our bullish view.S1: 542 S2: 533 R1: 550 R2: 560

MCX Natural Gas April : Prices have closed below the support of 184 indicating bearishness. Down moves are likely to take prices to 173/175 levels.Unexpected rise above 190 to dent our bearish view. S1: 178 S2: 173 R1: 184 R2: 190



TRADING STARTEGY ::
GOLD MCX JUNE ::
The trend is down but a short covering is being witnessed.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 14256 – Rs. 14192 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 14020.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14361 and when it falls below Rs. 14361 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14361 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 14256 – Rs. 14192 range or below.

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend is down but a short covering is being witnessed.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 20424 – Rs. 20258 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 20180.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 20668 and when it falls below Rs. 20668 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 20668 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 20424 – Rs. 20258 range or below.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Support will be at 874$-864$.
Sell on fall and close below 864$.
Resistance will be at 889$-897$.
A pullback towards the trend line which has been violated will be attempted.
An H&S pattern could be in place. The trend line or the neckline is violated. A close above 910$ will mean a false breakdown attempts.
On fall below 864$, expect a slide towards 821$-801$.
A couple of days o sideways movement a minor upside bias could be witnessed before a further follow up down move.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Support will be at 11.89$.
Resistance will be at 12.41$-12.56$-12.77$.
Expect further selling pressure on fall and close below 11.89$.
A rise to test the resistance is possible as a result of the sharp down move yesterday. The resistance of 12.41$-12.56$ could be tested.

TECHNICAL VIEW OF SPOT GOLD SILVER AND TRADING STRATEGY

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD VIEW:----A breakout was witnessed yesterday as it fell and close below the level of 882$ which is the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 681$ to 1006$.
Expect lower range of 845$ to be tested in days to come at least and to an outer extent to 806$.
Resistance will be at 882$ and 897$.
A rise and close above 897$ can halt the fall and a rise back up to test the lower top of 967$ could be a possibility.
The fall yesterday was sharper therefore we could have a bounce towards the resistance of 882$ at least.
Sell on fall and close below 864$ with high of the day stop loss.
Alternatively, traders can sell on rise to 882$-890$ with a stop loss of 897$. In order to minimize risk, traders can wait for a rise above 882$ and when it falls below 882$ then sell with high above 88$ as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER VIEW:---Support will be at 11.89$.
Resistance will be at 12.41$-12.56$-12.77$.
Expect further selling pressure on fall and close below 11.89$.
A rise to test the resistance is possible as a result of the sharp down move yesterday. The resistance of 12.41$-12.56$ could be tested.

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL:---Resistance will be at 54$-56$.
A further rally can only be witnessed on rise and close above 56$.
Support range is at 50$-47.20$.
A sideways movement in a wider band of 56$-47$ is likely to be witnessed.
A fall and close below 47$ can take the price back down to test he low of 36$-32$ range.
Traders who are holding long positions need to maintain overall stop loss of 47$

MCX GOLD TRDING STRATEGY:---The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 14189 – Rs. 14357 with stop loss of Rs. 14425.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 13954 – Rs. 13786.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14357 and when it falls below Rs. 14357 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14357 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 14189 – Rs. 13954 range or below.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:----The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 20603 – Rs. 20950 with stop loss of Rs. 21206.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 20000 – Rs. 19654.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 20603 and when it falls below Rs. 20603 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 20603 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 20000 – Rs. 19654 range or below

views and trading stratergy for monday 6 th april

MCX Gold June: Any rallies to 14600 to resist upside attempts quite strongly for a push to next levels at 13995/14010 or ideally 13700.Rise above 14790 could lead it up towards nearer resistance levels at 14870, 15115 or even 15180.Only a rise above 14790 would suggest the possibility of the end of a downward correction. S1: 14420 S2: 14290 R1: 14600 R2: 14720

. MCX Silver May :Favoured view expects a fall to 20400/19900 area initially.Resistance levels are at 21455, 21520 ,21570. Rise above 21723 would change this view.S1: 20815 S2: 20510 R1: 21550 R2: 21900

MCX Crude Oil April : The view is bullish for a rise towards 2820/2845. Supports are around 2580 2540. It has to fall below 2500 to give up this bullish view as such a fall could take it down to next levels at 2445 or even 2385.S1: 2570 S2: 2500 R1: 2650 R2: 2725

MCX Copper April: There is good scope for a corrective dip towards 210/211 levels on the back of heavily overbought indications.Supports are at 213/214 followed by 211. Fall below 206 could damage the bullish picture. S1: 213 S2: 206 R1: 224 R2: 230

MCX Zinc April: Close above 68.0 indicates bullishness. Up moves may take prices further high Moves below 65.0 may negate our bullish view.S1: 65.0 S2: 63.0 R1: 67.0 R2: 69.4

MCX Nickel April: Prices may consolidate for some time. Dips to 530/533 levels could find support for a move higher again towards 560 levels. A fall below 527 would negate this view.S1: 533 S2: 527 R1: 550 R2: 560

international spot gold;The channel had got violated some days back. It has tested the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 681$ to 1006$.
The 38.2% retracement was earlier tested in last couple of week and once again it has moved below the same in the early morning session. The 38.2% retracement is placed at 882$.
On further sustained fall and close below 882$, expect a slide down towards 844$ at least and to an outer extent to 806$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss at 910$

nymex crude oil:Resistance will be at 54$-56$.
The higher bottom is placed at 47.20$.
Use rise towards 54$-56$ to book profits.
Re-enter long positions on close above 56$.

spot silver:
Last week’s low of 12.56$ has been violated in the early morning session.
Expect the low of 11.89$ to be tested.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 12.77$.
Resistance will be at 12.56$-12.65$.
Sell on rise to 12.56$-12.65$ with a stop loss of 12.77$.

mcx gold trding stratergy:The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 14582 – Rs. 14657 with stop loss of Rs. 14714.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 14449 – Rs. 14374.
On sustain fall, prices could touch important support area of Rs. 14240 – Rs. 14030.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14582 and when it falls below Rs. 14582 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14582 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 14449 – Rs. 14374 range or below

mcx silver trading stratergy;-The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 21328 – Rs. 21507 with stop loss of Rs. 21555.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 21100 – Rs. 20920.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 21328 and when it falls below Rs. 21328 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 21328 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 21100 – Rs. 20920 range or below.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK AS ON SUNDAY 5 TH APRIL

GOLD TECHNICAL OUT LOOK:Comex Gold (GC)
The choppy pull back from 967.8 extended further last week but after all, the corrective look of such fall is still consistent with the short term bullish view. Considering that Gold is now close to 882.7 support, initial outlook is neutral this week. Break of 932.5 will suggest that rise from 882.7 has resumed. As discussed before, corrective fall fro 1007.7 has completed at 882.7 and rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of recent up trend. Beak of 967.8 will add much credence to this case and bring retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that break of 882.7 will dampen the short term bullish case and bring deeper decline towards 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.8 ).
In the bigger picture, while the correction from 1007.7 was slightly deeper than expected, the overall outlook doesn't change. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, however, another fall below 882.7 will open up a few short term bearish scenarios that should at least bring deeper fall to 801.5 cluster support or below before resuming the long term up trend.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.

SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's choppy pull back from 13.88 continued last week but after all, it's still holding 12.64 support after various attempt for break through. Initial outlook will remain neutral this week and some more sideway trading could be seen. But after all, we're still expecting 12.64 support to hold. Above 13.35 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and argue that rise from 11.89 is resuming. As discussed before, corrective fall from 14.6 should have completed with three waves down to 11.89 already. Break of 13.88 resistance will add further credence to this case and bring retest of 14.6 high. However, note that sustained break of 12.64 will dampen the short term bullish case and will put focus back to 11.89 low.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has likely completed at 8.4 already and rise from there is still in progress. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 12.99 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.89 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as correction, or part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.

CRUDE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dipped to 47.26 last week but drew support from near term rising channel as well as 55 days EMA and rebounded. Rise from 33.55 should still be in progress and further upside should be seen to 54.66 first this week. Break will target next key level of 60, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 60.34. On the downside, below 47.26 will turn short term outlook neutral again and suggests that consolidation from 54.66 is still in progress. But after all, rise from 33.55 is still expected to resume as long as 42.08 cluster support holds.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 50.47 resistance serves as an important signal that crude oil has finally bottomed out in medium term at 33.55, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after drawing support from 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone. Sustained trading above 50.47 confirms this case and open up the prospect of stronger rally towards next key level at 90.51 (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 90.38). However, failure at the current level, followed by break of 42.08 cluster support will revive that case that rise from 33.55 is just part of a medium term sideway consolidation pattern and will put 33.55 low back into focus.
In the longer term picture, steep decline from 147.27 is treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on confirmation of reversal for the moment.