MCX Gold April: Resistance at 16312/16358 to cap any rallies for a test of 15860/16060 now. S1: 16050 S2: 15780 R1: 16320 R2: 16430. MCX Silver March: Resistances at 24600 followed by 24850 now should cap for further decline towards 23700. S1: 24050 S2: 23670 R1: 24600 R2: 24960 MCX Copper Feb: While below 298 it is expected to decline edge lower towards 289/280 levels now. Unexpected rise above 300 to begin a corrective up move towards 306 levels. S1: 287 S2: 278 R1: 298.70 R2: 306. MCX CrudeOilFeb:Resistance at 3446 followed by 3495 could cap for test of important support and break below 3378 targeting 3306. S1:3360 S2:3300 R1:3470 R2:3520 MCX Zinc Feb: Resistance at 95.10 followed by 95.85 to cap for a further decline towards 92.50. From there a strong recovery is expected. S1: 93.20 S2: 92.50 R1: 95.1 R2: 95.85 MCX Lead Feb: Resistance at 92.30 followed by 93.05 to cap for fall towards 89.75. Again a very strong recovery is expected from there. S1: 91.0 S2: 89.8 R1: 93.5 R2: 94.5. MCX Nickel Feb: Next support is at 818/20 now. We still hope this support could hold fror a break above 875. Unexpected break of 816 could drag prices towards 780 levels. S1: 817 S2: 801 R1: 838 R2: 845. MCX Natural Gas Feb: Resistance at 257 followed by 262 to cap for fall towards 236. Break below 236 will be very bearish.S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 259 R2: 265 INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :: The support of 1074$ was violated yesterday. Expect Gold now to slide towards 1014$-953$-888$. Gold slid to 1015$ is likely and will move below the 1000$ mark in time to come. Only a breakout and close above 1125$ can negative the possibility of Gold moving down to test each of the level 1014$-953$-888$ gradually. INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER :: Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.4$. The 38.2% retracement of the entire rise from 8.63$ to 19.41$ which was at 15.03$was tested. The long term trend line shown has also got violated. Silver is likely to move down all the way to test the bottom in weeks and months to come with volatility of lower top and lower bottom formation. A bounce from either of the retracement level of 15$-13.9$-12.7$ could be witnessed for a pullback rally to make lower top. NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL :: Exit long and sell on rise to 74.4$-76.5$ as the opportunity arises. Expect the lower range of 71$-68$ to be tested. Only a breakout and close above 78.10$ can prevent it from a slide towards 71$-68$ TRADING STRATEGY :: GOLD MCX APRIL :: Sell on rise to 16238-16430 and exit long with a stop loss of 16581. Expect lower range of 15896-15703 to be tested. SILVER MCX MARCH :: Sell on rise to 24827-25279 with a stop loss of 25608. Expect lower range of 24046-23594 ADX is moving up with the fall with indicates downside momentum. Important support of 25935 has been violated therefore major medium to long term reversal has been confirmed. Even if the rally come in near term the rise can make a potential lower top only |
Friday, February 5, 2010
VIEWS FOR 5TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX
Thursday, February 4, 2010
VIEWS FOR 4TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES
MCX Gold April: Minor support is at 16540 followed by important support at 16435 levels now. Rallies to 16720/16735 to cap upside attempts now for a fall towards 16420/16435.
S1: 16540 S2: 16420 R1: 16720 R2: 16830.
S1: 16540 S2: 16420 R1: 16720 R2: 16830.
MCX Silver March: Break below 25860 took prices lower again. Good resistance will be seen at 25800-25860 levels now. Favoured view expects downside to extend towards 24610/24767 while below 25861-25940.S1: 25250 S2: 24770 R1: 25860 R2: 26120
MCX Copper Feb: Strong weekly supports are at 291/292 levels now. Ideally these levels
could hold for a retracement higher from here. Failure to do so could drag prices even lower. S1: 301 S2: 297 R1: 308 R2: 310.5.
could hold for a retracement higher from here. Failure to do so could drag prices even lower. S1: 301 S2: 297 R1: 308 R2: 310.5.
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Important support is at 3535 levels now followed by 3490. Unexpected fall below 3442 will force us to abandon any chance of bullishness towards 3625.
S1: 3535 S2: 3490 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.
MCX Zinc Feb: Ideally, 94.00/95.00 to hold for a pullback higher again.
S1: 95.6 S2: 94.80 R1: 97.6 R2: 98.9.
MCX Lead Feb: Support at 91 look vulnerable and could be broken. Subsequently we could see a retracement higher.S1: 92.6 S2: 91.0 R1: 95 R2: 96.5.
MCX Nickel Feb: Still in bullish consolidation now. Only fall below 829 could dash our
bullish hopes for a rally towards 875.S1: 838 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860
bullish hopes for a rally towards 875.S1: 838 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259,
which are strong resistance levels and prices, prices, could retrace from these levels.
S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264
which are strong resistance levels and prices, prices, could retrace from these levels.
S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1098$ and use rise to 1121$-1132$ to take profit.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on close above 1125$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.93$.
Cover the same on dip to 16.10$-15.82$.
Sell on rise to 16.53$-16.77$ with a stop loss of 16.93$.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::
A range of movement has been in a wider band of 6.11$-5$.
Traders can buy on rise and close above 5.56$ with low of the day stop loss.
Support will be at 5.35$.
On fall below 5.35$, expect the range of 5$ to be tested again.
A minor lower top and lower bottom formation is being witnessed.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
Traders can take profit at current level or above to 78.10$ as the opportunity arises.
Expect a sideways movement or a minor correction.
Support is at 76.5$.
Fresh trading buy can be undertaken on rise and close above 78.10$.
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX APRIL ::
Hold long with a stop loss of 16560 or exit long on rise to 16688-16815. Re-enter long on rise and close above 16815 with low of the day stop loss.
SILVER MCX MARCH ::
Sell on rise to 25780-26101 with a stop loss of 26340.
Expect lower range of 25221-24900 to be tested
Expect lower range of 25221-24900 to be tested
ENJOY TRADING !!!!!
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR REAL TIME CALLS
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
EXPECTATION FOR 3RD FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-Resistance will be at 16.9$-17$.
Support will be at 16.52$-16.3$.
Expect a sideways movement on the immediate near front. Unless a breakout and close above 17$ is witnessed.
Sell on fall below 16.5$ with high of the day stop loss
NYMEX CRUDE:-Indicated to buy above 75.5$ in our last couple of updates.
Crude rose to a high of 77.41$. Traders who managed to implement a buy had the opportunity to benefit.
Corrective dip to 76.5$-75$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 74$.
Expect high range of 78.3$-80.3$ to be tested which can be used for profit booking
SPOT GOLD:-Corrective dip to 1110-1102$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1098$.
Expect higher range of 1122$-1130$ to be tested.
Sell on fall below 1098$ with high of the day stop loss
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions for the time being on dip to 26103-25910 as the opportunity arises.
Expect higher range of 26253-26446 to be tested
GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Corrective dip to 16702-16614 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16560.
Expect higher range of 16841-16929 to be tested
MCX Gold April:Resistance at 16762-16822 level. Ideally, this zone should cap for decline
toward 16417/16462 level. S1: 16674 S2: 16594 R1: 16834 R2: 16915
toward 16417/16462 level. S1: 16674 S2: 16594 R1: 16834 R2: 16915
MCX Silver March: We can expect a consolidation in the 25672-26170 zones now followed
by a rise towards 26903 levels. Only a fall below 25454 to cause doubts on our bullish view.
S1: 25931 S2: 25801 R1: 26192 R2: 26321
by a rise towards 26903 levels. Only a fall below 25454 to cause doubts on our bullish view.
S1: 25931 S2: 25801 R1: 26192 R2: 26321
MCX Copper Feb: Ideally, supports at 310.50 levels to hold for a move towards 322. This is our favored view.
Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view. This is our favored view. Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view.
S1: 311.60 S2: 307.60 R1: 319.60 R2: 323.60.
S1: 311.60 S2: 307.60 R1: 319.60 R2: 323.60.
MCX Crude Oil Feb: An important resistance at 3572 has been tested. Supports are now at 3500 followed
by important support at 3460/3465 now. Ideally a consolidation should take place before the next move.
S1: 3514 S2: 3474 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.
S1: 3514 S2: 3474 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.
MCX Zinc Feb: Supports are at 98.15 followed by 97.20 now. While above 96, a pullback towards 103 looks likely.
S1: 97.60 S2: 95.60 R1: 101.6 R2: 103.60.
MCX Lead Feb: Supports are at 94.30 followed by 93.05. Favored view expects supports to hold for a test of
99.35/50 levels while supports hold. S1: 95.15 S2: 93.15 R1: 99.15 R2: 101.15.
MCX Nickel Feb: Strong support is seen in the 826-830 levels. Ideally, this zone to hold for a rise towards 875.
This is our favored view. Fall below 823 to dent our bullish view. S1: 840 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860.
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259, which are strong
resistance levels and prices, could retrace from these levels. S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
VIEWS FOR 2ND FEB. 2010 - MCX & COMEX
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 25858-25600 and buy with a stop loss of 25290.
After buying use rise to 26327-26585 to exit long.
A pullback could be witnessed.
A rise toward the earlier bottom which was violated can be tested which is at 26602.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The 14 day RSI has exited the oversold zone with a strong positive candle.
Corrective dip to 16524-16387 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16290.
Sell further only on fall and close below 16200.
Expect higher range of 16757-16894 to be tested.
MCX Gold April: Dips to 16515 / 16470 likely to find support for pullbacks towards 16800 / 16846 levels Fall below 16260 to negate this bullish view. S1: 16540 S2: 16460 R1: 16700 R2: 16780.
MCX Silver March: Pullback towards 26491 or even higher towards 26773 looks likely now as long as prices are above 25380.S1: 25940 S2: 25810 R1: 26200 R2: 26330
MCX Copper Feb: Dips to 313.20 / 312.10 favored to find support for a move higher towards 321.75 /324.80 levels. Fall below 308.40 to raise doubts now. S1: 312 S2: 308 R1: 320 R2: 324
MCX Crude Oil Feb: Dips to 3443 levels likely to find support for a move higher towards 3538 / 3566 levels. Fall below 3360 to negate this view. S1: 3395 S2: 3355 R1: 3470 R2: 3510.
MCX Zinc Feb: While above 96.20, expect rallies to 103.2 levels. Supports are at 98.50 levels. S1: 98.70 S2: 97.70 R1: 100.6 R2: 101.70.
MCX Lead Feb: Ideally A pullback towards 98 looks likely while above 91. S1: 94.4 S2: 93.2 R1: 96.70 R2: 97.7.
MCX Nickel Feb: While above 820, expect pullbacks towards 850 levels. S1: 825 S2: 815 R1: 840 R2: 855
MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 /247 to find support for a move higher towards 255, which are strong resistance levels and prices,could retrace from these levels. S1: 247 S2: 244 R1: 253 R2: 256
SPOT GOLD:-
Expect a near term rise towards 1116$-1127$.
Corrective dip to 1096-1084$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1074$ to exit at 1116$-1127$.selling can only be seen below 1074
Corrective dip to 1096-1084$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1074$ to exit at 1116$-1127$.selling can only be seen below 1074
SPOT SILVER:
Support is at 16.3$-15.7$.
Expect a pullback towards 16.87$-17.10$.
Traders short can cover the same at current price or below
Expect a pullback towards 16.87$-17.10$.
Traders short can cover the same at current price or below
Monday, February 1, 2010
2010 expectation of comex gold,lead,copper.alluminum and nymex crude with natural gas
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON LME NICKLE FOR THE YEAR 2010:-
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones
MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010
MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.
MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-
Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.
2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.
NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-
We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.
The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side
MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)
LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again
MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones
MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010
MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.
MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-
Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.
2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.
NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-
We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.
The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side
MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)
LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again
MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).
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