MCX Gold Oct : Bullish for 15163 or ideally 15318.Dips if any could be held at 14852 , 14775 or 14744. S1: 14840 S2: 14760 R1: 14995 R2: 15080
MCX Silver September: Price structures indicate as long as 23595-23627 caps we could see a fall towards 22430- 22477 levels. Unexpected rise above 23898 to dent our bearish expectation. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23485 R2: 23645
MCX Copper August : Rallies to 292- 293.10 to cap for a test of 279.35- 281.45 levels or even lower. Unexpected rise above 296.0 to cause doubts on our corrective expectations. S1: 286 S2: 282 R1: 295 R2: 299
MCX Crude Oil Aug:Bullish. Can rise to 3483-3498. Support at 3414-3405 maximum at 3350-3335. Stop below 3321. S1:3395 S2:3360 R1:3485 R2:3520
MCX Zinc Aug: Rallies to 88.10- 88.40 to find resistance for a move lower towards 85.0/ 84.75 levels. A rise above 89.80 to negate this bearish view. S1: 86.80 S2: 86.0 R1: 88.50 R2: 89.70
MCX Lead Aug:Rallies to 90.10/90.50 to find resistance for a fall towards 87.0/ 86.50 levels. A rise above 91.55 to negate this bearish view. S1: 88.0 S2: 87.0 R1: 90.50 R2: 92.20
MCX Nickel Aug:Rallies to 940 / 948 find resistance for a move lower towards 900 /895 levels . A rise above 962 to negate this bearish view. S1: 920 S2: 905 R1: 945 R2: 962
MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 176/172 to find support for a move higher towards 194.0 levels . A fall below 171.30 to negate this bullish view .S1: 178 S2: 174 R1: 186 R2: 191
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14850 and look for rise to 14933-15002 to exit long to take profit.
Re-enter long positions on rise above 15020 with low of the day stop loss or 14850 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 23211.
Exit long positions on rise to 23472-23680 range as the opportunity arises.
INT. SPOT GOLD ::
Trader, if holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 950$.
The next resistance zone can be 973$-989$.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to the resistance to take profit as the opportunity arises.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$-15.03$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 15.03$.
A sideways movement to minor correction is likely before further attempts to move higher beyond yesterday’s high of 15.03$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 69$.
Resistance will be at 72.2$ and 73.8$.
Traders can buy on rise above 72.2$ with low of the day stop loss or 70$ whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
VIEWS FOR 6TH AUGUST 2009
MCX Gold October : Dips to 14820- 14835 to hold for a test of 15082- 15098 or even higher towards 15143- 15158. Fall below 14695- 14711 to dent our bullish expectations. S1:14820 S2:14760 R1:14995 R2:15080
MCX Silver September: Initial resistance is at 23371 followed by 23688 - 23783 levels. Chances are that it could even extend to 24432 levels as long as 22610 - 22895 holds. Supports are at 22895 followed by 22610. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23485 R2: 23645
MCX Copper August : Rallies to 290.6/292.2 to offer resistance for a move lower towards 280 levels. A rise above 296.10 to negate this view. S1: 290 S2: 285 R1: 294 R2: 299
MCX Crude Oil August : Favored view expects 3427 - 3451 levels to offer resistance and prices to move lower towards 3238 - 3224 levels.Above 3453 some doubts might creep in. S1:3350 S2: 3310 R1: 3435 R2: 3460
MCX Zinc Aug : While below 91.0 , expect correction towards 88.0/87.70 levels. A rise above 91.0 to negate this bearishness. S1: 89.2 S2: 88.2 R1: 91.4 R2: 92.60
MCX Lead Aug : While below 92.95 , expect correction towards 89.0/88.0 levels. A rise above 92.95 to negate this bearishness. S1: 91.50 S2: 90.65 R1: 93.30 R2: 94.20
MCX Nickel Aug : While below 962 , expect correction towards 930/925 levels. . A rise above 962 to negate this bearishness. S1: 945 S2: 928 R1: 970 R2: 995
MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 191.5/189.5 to find support for a move higher towards 202 levels . Fall below 188 to negate this bullish view. S1: 189.5 S2: 185.5 R1: 196 R2: 201
TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX GOLD ::
Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14840 and look for rise to 14950-15005 to exit long to take profit. Re-enter long positions on rise above 15005 with low of the day stop loss or 14840 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 23211. Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 23500 with low of the day stop loss of 23211 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
On sustained rise above 23520, expect rise to get extended towards 23652.
On fall below 23211, a minor correction or sideways movement could be witnessed before making further attempts to move higher.
INT. SPOT GOLD ::
Trader, if holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 950$. Resistance will be at 967$-971$.
On further rise above 971$ the next resistance zone can be 973$-989$.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.85$.
Alternatively, traders who wish to hold long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14.53$.
A correction or sideways movement can come into existence on fall below 14.53$.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 14.53$.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.85$.
Alternatively, traders who wish to hold long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14.53$.
A correction or sideways movement can come into existence on fall below 14.53$.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 14.53$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::
Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 69$. Resistance will be at 72.2$ and 73.8$.
Traders can buy on rise above 72.2$ with low of the day stop loss or 70$ whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
On sustained rise and close above 74$, Crude Oil can spike towards 77$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 85$.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON COMEX METALS AND ENERGIES AS ON 3RD AUGUST
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Gold's fall from 862.7 was contained at 927.6 and subsequent strong rally argues that whole rise from 904.8 is still in progress. Break of 962.7 high will confirm rise resumption and should then target 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. Nevertheless, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation. Hence we'd look for near term reversal signals there. On the downside, break of 927.6 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's fall from 14.09 was contained at 13.165 and the strong rebound from there aruges that rise from 12.435 might still be in progress. While such rise will now likely be stronger than we originally expected, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction the five wave impulsive fall from 16.25. Break of 14.09 till target cluster level at 14.79/82 (61.8% retracement of 16.25 to 12.435 at 14.79 and 100% projection of 12.435 to 14.09 from 13.165 at 14.82). But upside should be limited there to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 13.165 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 12.435 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, we're still prefering the case that whole rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already, after meeting 16.08 key medium term resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The three wave structure indicates that such rise is merely correction to whole fall from 21.44 only. In other words, down trend from 21.44 is not completed yet. Break of 11.725 support will further solidify this case and bring retest of 8.4 low next. On the upside, break of 14.79/82 resistance zone is needed to be the first signal that fall from 16.25 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 68.99 was contained above 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) as expected. Subsequent strong rally and break of 68.99 high indicates that rise from 58.32 has resumed and should now be targeting key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. While some retreat might be seen, break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is still trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. on the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
NATURAL GAS :-Much volatility was seen in natural gas last week but after all it continued to stay in range of 3.225 and 3.904. Nevertheless, it looks choppy triangle consolidation from 3.155 is still in progress and could extend further. Above 3.094 will bring another rise towards 4.387 resistance but upside should be limited there and bring reversal. On the downside, a break of 3.225 support will argue that consolidation is possibly completed. Further break of 3.155 will confirm medium term fall resumption for 3.0 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle. Another rise might be seen before the consolidation completes but upside is expected to be limited below 4.575 resistance. As mentioned before, whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. On the upside, however, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADE CONTACT MARKET EDITOR NITESHJAIN AND MANISH WE ROCK EVERY DAY
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's fall from 14.09 was contained at 13.165 and the strong rebound from there aruges that rise from 12.435 might still be in progress. While such rise will now likely be stronger than we originally expected, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction the five wave impulsive fall from 16.25. Break of 14.09 till target cluster level at 14.79/82 (61.8% retracement of 16.25 to 12.435 at 14.79 and 100% projection of 12.435 to 14.09 from 13.165 at 14.82). But upside should be limited there to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 13.165 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 12.435 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, we're still prefering the case that whole rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already, after meeting 16.08 key medium term resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The three wave structure indicates that such rise is merely correction to whole fall from 21.44 only. In other words, down trend from 21.44 is not completed yet. Break of 11.725 support will further solidify this case and bring retest of 8.4 low next. On the upside, break of 14.79/82 resistance zone is needed to be the first signal that fall from 16.25 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 68.99 was contained above 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) as expected. Subsequent strong rally and break of 68.99 high indicates that rise from 58.32 has resumed and should now be targeting key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. While some retreat might be seen, break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is still trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. on the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
NATURAL GAS :-Much volatility was seen in natural gas last week but after all it continued to stay in range of 3.225 and 3.904. Nevertheless, it looks choppy triangle consolidation from 3.155 is still in progress and could extend further. Above 3.094 will bring another rise towards 4.387 resistance but upside should be limited there and bring reversal. On the downside, a break of 3.225 support will argue that consolidation is possibly completed. Further break of 3.155 will confirm medium term fall resumption for 3.0 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle. Another rise might be seen before the consolidation completes but upside is expected to be limited below 4.575 resistance. As mentioned before, whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. On the upside, however, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADE CONTACT MARKET EDITOR NITESHJAIN AND MANISH WE ROCK EVERY DAY
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