MCX Gold April: Supports are still centered around 14562-14577 and a fall below this level could drag prices lower towards 14329. However, as long as 14562-14577 holds, we expect a rally towards 15030-15076. S1: 14432 S2: 14119 R1: 14860 R2: 15076
MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 20966-20982. Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 22024.However, fall below 20982 and more importantly 20840 to lead into a corrective decline towards 20287 or 20050.S1: 21045 S2: 20715 R1: 21800 R2: 22030
MCX Copper February: Resistances at 168.5/170 presently. Could even stretch towards 171/172 levels.But any sustained bullish rally looks unlikely unless 176.5/177.5 is broken decisively. S1: 164 S2: 160 R1: 168 R2: 172
MCX Crude Oil Feb : Rise above 1684/1685 to result in a corrective pullback towards 1760 or even higher towards 1870. dips to 1653 to find support. Stop will be at 1623. S1: 1680 S2: 1650 R1: 1760 R2: 1870
MCX Zinc Feb: - Inability to cross 56.0 levels on the upside will lead to another session of weakness leading to a fall towards strong supports which lie in the range 55.7 ; 54.75 . However a rise above 56.5 levels could trigger a rally towards 57.7 levels. S1: 55.60 S2: 54.70 R1: 57.15 R2: 58.00
MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 55.7, 54.70 on the downside.However a break above 57.25 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 58.60 levels.
S1: 55.20 S2: 54.50 R1: 57.8 R2: 58.30
MCX Nickel Feb: Nickel seems to be in free fall. Next level of support at 481;471 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 510 for move beyond 470 toward 460 level.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 517 R2: 530
GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14825.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 and when it rises above Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 then buy with the low below Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14879 – Rs 14974.
SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20540.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21575.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 21009 and when it rises above Rs 21009 then buy with the low below Rs 21009 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21543 – Rs 21823.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 12th FEBRUARY 2009
MCX Gold April: Dips to 14469-14438 could find support for a rally towards 15060 ; 15044. A break below 14283 could cast doubt about this view that could price to next support at 14174 levels. S1: 14625 S2: 14550 R1: 14785 R2: 14860
MCX Silver Mar: Dips to 20896-20802 likely to find support for a rally towards 21819 followed by 22022. A break below 20443 to negate this bullish view. S1:21000 S2:20750 R1:21325 R2:21600
MCX Crude Oil Feb : Expect corrective rallies towards 1815 followed by 1845 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 1678 followed 1644 . A break above 1879 to turn the picture neutral. S1: 1785 S2: 1745 R1: 1865 R2: 1900
MCX Copper February: Expect corrective rallies towards 170.9 ; 172.0 to find resistance for a fall lower 162.3 followed by 156.8. A break above 176.3 could could see price edging higher towards 183.8-186.3. S1: 163 S2:160 R1: 169 R2:172
MCX Zinc Feb: - Inability to cross 56.5 levels on the upside will lead to another session of weakness leading to a fall towards strong supports which lie in the range 55.2 ; 54.75 . However a rise above 56.5 levels could trigger a rally towards 57.7 levels. S1: 55.60 S2: 54.70 R1: 57.15 R2: 58.00
MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 55.00 ; 54.70 on the downside. However a break above 57.25 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 58.60 levels. S1: 55.75 S2: 54.50 R1: 57.8 R2: 58.30
MCX Nickel Feb: Nickel seems to be in free fall. Next level of support at 481;471 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 510 for move beyond 470 toward 460 level.S1: 495 S2: 478 R1: 523 R2: 542
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Rallies to 226- 228 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 214 ;210 levels Only a rise above 233 to negate this bearish view. S1: 221 S2: 217 R1: 228 R2: 233
Comex Gold April: - Dips to 931- 929 could find support for a rally towards 969 - 968. A break below 919 could cast doubt about this view that could take price to next support at 912 levels.
Comex Silver March: - Dips to 13.36-13.30 likely to find support for a rally towards 13.95 followed by 14.08. A break below 13.07 to negate this bullish view
NYMEX Crude March: - Expect corrective rallies towards 37.20 followed by 37.80 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 34.40 followed 33.70. A break above 38.50 to turn the picture neutral
GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14725.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 and when it rises above Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 then buy with the low below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14864 – Rs 15039
SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20540.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21255.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 and when it rises above Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 then buy with the low below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21446 – Rs 21705
MCX Silver Mar: Dips to 20896-20802 likely to find support for a rally towards 21819 followed by 22022. A break below 20443 to negate this bullish view. S1:21000 S2:20750 R1:21325 R2:21600
MCX Crude Oil Feb : Expect corrective rallies towards 1815 followed by 1845 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 1678 followed 1644 . A break above 1879 to turn the picture neutral. S1: 1785 S2: 1745 R1: 1865 R2: 1900
MCX Copper February: Expect corrective rallies towards 170.9 ; 172.0 to find resistance for a fall lower 162.3 followed by 156.8. A break above 176.3 could could see price edging higher towards 183.8-186.3. S1: 163 S2:160 R1: 169 R2:172
MCX Zinc Feb: - Inability to cross 56.5 levels on the upside will lead to another session of weakness leading to a fall towards strong supports which lie in the range 55.2 ; 54.75 . However a rise above 56.5 levels could trigger a rally towards 57.7 levels. S1: 55.60 S2: 54.70 R1: 57.15 R2: 58.00
MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 55.00 ; 54.70 on the downside. However a break above 57.25 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 58.60 levels. S1: 55.75 S2: 54.50 R1: 57.8 R2: 58.30
MCX Nickel Feb: Nickel seems to be in free fall. Next level of support at 481;471 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 510 for move beyond 470 toward 460 level.S1: 495 S2: 478 R1: 523 R2: 542
MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Rallies to 226- 228 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 214 ;210 levels Only a rise above 233 to negate this bearish view. S1: 221 S2: 217 R1: 228 R2: 233
Comex Gold April: - Dips to 931- 929 could find support for a rally towards 969 - 968. A break below 919 could cast doubt about this view that could take price to next support at 912 levels.
Comex Silver March: - Dips to 13.36-13.30 likely to find support for a rally towards 13.95 followed by 14.08. A break below 13.07 to negate this bullish view
NYMEX Crude March: - Expect corrective rallies towards 37.20 followed by 37.80 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 34.40 followed 33.70. A break above 38.50 to turn the picture neutral
GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14725.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 and when it rises above Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 then buy with the low below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14864 – Rs 15039
SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20540.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21255.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 and when it rises above Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 then buy with the low below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21446 – Rs 21705
Monday, February 9, 2009
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold faced tough resistance as it approached 936.3 key resistance and turned sideway. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing but after all, further rally is still in favor as long as 874.2 support holds. As discussed before, sustained break of 936.30 will be taken as an important indication that medium term rise is resuming and should bring strong rally to 989.6 resistance next. On the downside, failure at the current level, followed by break of 874.2 will be the first indication that Gold has already topped out and focus will turn back to 801.5 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, we're still holding on the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.
In the long term picture, the corrective structure of price actions from 1033.9 so far is consistent with the view that it's merely consolidation in the larger up trend. With Gold still trading well above 55 months EMA (now at 687.82) as well as trend line support (semi-log chart) at 632.88, it's believed that such long term up trend is still in progress. On resumption Gold should target 1100 psychological resistance next and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159. On the downside, however, sustained trading below the mentioned support levels will argue that the long term up trend has completed at 1033.9 and much deeper fall should then be seen
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver rally extended further to 13.18 last week and is still in progress. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 12.135 support holds. Current choppy rise from 8.4 could extend further towards 13.88 key medium term resistance but strong resistance should be seen there. On the downside, below 12.135 will be the first alert that silver has topped out. Further break of 10.32 support will turn short term outlook bearish again.
In the bigger picture, the choppy price actions from 8.4 so far look corrective in nature. In other words, while choppy recovery from 8.4 is extending, whole down trend from 21.44 is going to resume sooner or later. Having said that, upside is expected to be limited by 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975). On the other hand, a break below 10.32 support will be taken as an early alert that the down trend is resuming for at least a new low below 8.4. Firm break of 13.88 is needed to invalidate this bearish case.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315. A medium term bottom might be in place after contained slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36 but there is no confirmation yet. Nevertheless, based on the time spent so far, we don't think the consolidation/correction has completed yet and some more range trading could be seen below 21.44 before finally breaking to new high.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil had an extremely choppy week as it continued to struggle around 40 level but stubbornly refused to let it go. But after all, with 43.60 minor resistance intact, bias remains on the downside for at test of 34.98 low next. Also, while above 43.6 will bring some stronger recovery, short term outlook is still bearish for down trend resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.
In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. However, note that weekly MACD has crossed above signal line already, which serves an early alert that whole decline from 147.27 might be near to completion. Hence, downside potential might be limited even if such fall is going to extend. On the upside, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Late Friday's rally and break of 4.728 resistance affirms the case that a bottom is formed at 4.28, after drawing support from key long term support at 4.3, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. . Short term bias is flipped back to the upside for 5.477 resistance first. Though, a break back below 4.522 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish case and put focus back to 4.28 low.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, we're expecting a medium bottom at around 4.3 key long term support and the development so far is consistent with this view. Further break of 5.477 resistance will 6.24 resistance will confirm that a medium term is finally formed and bring strong, sustained rally towards key cluster resistance at 8.88 (50% retracement of 13.69 to 4.28 at 8.98).
In the longer term picture, note that fall from 13.69 is treated as part of long term consolidation that started at 15.65. Break decisive break of 8.88 will confirm that whole fall from 13.69 has completed and should target upper side of the long term range between 13.69 and 15.65 next. However, note that firm break of 4.3 will invalidate this view and target 4.00 psychological support next.
Gold faced tough resistance as it approached 936.3 key resistance and turned sideway. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing but after all, further rally is still in favor as long as 874.2 support holds. As discussed before, sustained break of 936.30 will be taken as an important indication that medium term rise is resuming and should bring strong rally to 989.6 resistance next. On the downside, failure at the current level, followed by break of 874.2 will be the first indication that Gold has already topped out and focus will turn back to 801.5 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, we're still holding on the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.
In the long term picture, the corrective structure of price actions from 1033.9 so far is consistent with the view that it's merely consolidation in the larger up trend. With Gold still trading well above 55 months EMA (now at 687.82) as well as trend line support (semi-log chart) at 632.88, it's believed that such long term up trend is still in progress. On resumption Gold should target 1100 psychological resistance next and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159. On the downside, however, sustained trading below the mentioned support levels will argue that the long term up trend has completed at 1033.9 and much deeper fall should then be seen
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver rally extended further to 13.18 last week and is still in progress. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 12.135 support holds. Current choppy rise from 8.4 could extend further towards 13.88 key medium term resistance but strong resistance should be seen there. On the downside, below 12.135 will be the first alert that silver has topped out. Further break of 10.32 support will turn short term outlook bearish again.
In the bigger picture, the choppy price actions from 8.4 so far look corrective in nature. In other words, while choppy recovery from 8.4 is extending, whole down trend from 21.44 is going to resume sooner or later. Having said that, upside is expected to be limited by 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975). On the other hand, a break below 10.32 support will be taken as an early alert that the down trend is resuming for at least a new low below 8.4. Firm break of 13.88 is needed to invalidate this bearish case.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315. A medium term bottom might be in place after contained slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36 but there is no confirmation yet. Nevertheless, based on the time spent so far, we don't think the consolidation/correction has completed yet and some more range trading could be seen below 21.44 before finally breaking to new high.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil had an extremely choppy week as it continued to struggle around 40 level but stubbornly refused to let it go. But after all, with 43.60 minor resistance intact, bias remains on the downside for at test of 34.98 low next. Also, while above 43.6 will bring some stronger recovery, short term outlook is still bearish for down trend resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.
In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. However, note that weekly MACD has crossed above signal line already, which serves an early alert that whole decline from 147.27 might be near to completion. Hence, downside potential might be limited even if such fall is going to extend. On the upside, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Late Friday's rally and break of 4.728 resistance affirms the case that a bottom is formed at 4.28, after drawing support from key long term support at 4.3, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. . Short term bias is flipped back to the upside for 5.477 resistance first. Though, a break back below 4.522 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish case and put focus back to 4.28 low.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, we're expecting a medium bottom at around 4.3 key long term support and the development so far is consistent with this view. Further break of 5.477 resistance will 6.24 resistance will confirm that a medium term is finally formed and bring strong, sustained rally towards key cluster resistance at 8.88 (50% retracement of 13.69 to 4.28 at 8.98).
In the longer term picture, note that fall from 13.69 is treated as part of long term consolidation that started at 15.65. Break decisive break of 8.88 will confirm that whole fall from 13.69 has completed and should target upper side of the long term range between 13.69 and 15.65 next. However, note that firm break of 4.3 will invalidate this view and target 4.00 psychological support next.
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