GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold faced tough resistance as it approached 936.3 key resistance and turned sideway. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing but after all, further rally is still in favor as long as 874.2 support holds. As discussed before, sustained break of 936.30 will be taken as an important indication that medium term rise is resuming and should bring strong rally to 989.6 resistance next. On the downside, failure at the current level, followed by break of 874.2 will be the first indication that Gold has already topped out and focus will turn back to 801.5 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, we're still holding on the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.
In the long term picture, the corrective structure of price actions from 1033.9 so far is consistent with the view that it's merely consolidation in the larger up trend. With Gold still trading well above 55 months EMA (now at 687.82) as well as trend line support (semi-log chart) at 632.88, it's believed that such long term up trend is still in progress. On resumption Gold should target 1100 psychological resistance next and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159. On the downside, however, sustained trading below the mentioned support levels will argue that the long term up trend has completed at 1033.9 and much deeper fall should then be seen
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver rally extended further to 13.18 last week and is still in progress. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 12.135 support holds. Current choppy rise from 8.4 could extend further towards 13.88 key medium term resistance but strong resistance should be seen there. On the downside, below 12.135 will be the first alert that silver has topped out. Further break of 10.32 support will turn short term outlook bearish again.
In the bigger picture, the choppy price actions from 8.4 so far look corrective in nature. In other words, while choppy recovery from 8.4 is extending, whole down trend from 21.44 is going to resume sooner or later. Having said that, upside is expected to be limited by 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975). On the other hand, a break below 10.32 support will be taken as an early alert that the down trend is resuming for at least a new low below 8.4. Firm break of 13.88 is needed to invalidate this bearish case.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315. A medium term bottom might be in place after contained slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36 but there is no confirmation yet. Nevertheless, based on the time spent so far, we don't think the consolidation/correction has completed yet and some more range trading could be seen below 21.44 before finally breaking to new high.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil had an extremely choppy week as it continued to struggle around 40 level but stubbornly refused to let it go. But after all, with 43.60 minor resistance intact, bias remains on the downside for at test of 34.98 low next. Also, while above 43.6 will bring some stronger recovery, short term outlook is still bearish for down trend resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.
In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. However, note that weekly MACD has crossed above signal line already, which serves an early alert that whole decline from 147.27 might be near to completion. Hence, downside potential might be limited even if such fall is going to extend. On the upside, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Late Friday's rally and break of 4.728 resistance affirms the case that a bottom is formed at 4.28, after drawing support from key long term support at 4.3, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. . Short term bias is flipped back to the upside for 5.477 resistance first. Though, a break back below 4.522 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish case and put focus back to 4.28 low.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, we're expecting a medium bottom at around 4.3 key long term support and the development so far is consistent with this view. Further break of 5.477 resistance will 6.24 resistance will confirm that a medium term is finally formed and bring strong, sustained rally towards key cluster resistance at 8.88 (50% retracement of 13.69 to 4.28 at 8.98).
In the longer term picture, note that fall from 13.69 is treated as part of long term consolidation that started at 15.65. Break decisive break of 8.88 will confirm that whole fall from 13.69 has completed and should target upper side of the long term range between 13.69 and 15.65 next. However, note that firm break of 4.3 will invalidate this view and target 4.00 psychological support next.