VIEWS ON COMMODITY FOR 09-01-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:The metal delayed breaching the 835.40 level where at the same time the downside classical technical pattern has weakened and from here we advise to trade cautiously since we see the chance for more upside movements. We need to watch the 873.65 and the 890.55 levels closely where if breached this will go against our expectation; yet if failed, it will continue to decline. Momentum indicators show gold being overbougth whereas the price is starting to show signs of bullish movements adding more to the fact that trading today will be volatile. The direction on the short term is still to the downside but breaching the 890.55 level on the four hour charts will open the way for the metal to reach 914.50.

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Volatile trading continues on the metal but below the key resistance for the ascending channel and below the 11.50 level. We expect to see sideways trading with some tendency to the downside but at any time the 11.86 level is breached, this will result in a new upside wave

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:After the decline witnessed the past two days, crude is not getting ready to rebound to the upside but despite that, the price is still in a downside channel on the short term but due to the rebound from the 61.8% correction at 41.00 and after retesting the minor resistances for the descending channel, we see that our expectations for a slight incline is logical but we don't see that today's increase will be enough to reverse the short term trend that is targeting the 39.60 level at the very least

MCX Gold Feb: Dips could be held above 13347 for a rally towards 13615. Such a move would also release the price out of a channel and might led it towards the next level at 13771. This is the favored expectation. Fall below 13347 would hint at failure and might open the way for 13142. S1: 13350 S2: 13285 R1: 13520 R2: 13610

MCX Silver Mar: Expect dips to 18086 - 17971 to support prices for a move higher towards 18779 -19059 levels . Only fall below 17785 to negate this bullish view. S1:18100 S2:17700 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Expect dips to 165.0,163.2 to find support for prices to move higher towards 174.0, 176.0 or even higher towards 180.0 levels.Only a fall below 157.40 to negate this bullish view. S1: 156 S2:153 R1: 165 R2:168

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Favored view expects a corrective rise towards 2130/2144 region before next decline towards 1893 or even 1832.It needs to rise past 2178 to hint at the possibility of failure of this view. S1: 2000 S2: 1965 R1: 2050 R2:2110

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 59.5 - 59.3 to find support for prices to move higher towards 63.5 levels.Only a fall below 59.40 to negate this bullish view. S1: 59.00 S2: 58.35 R1: 60.50 R2: 61.80

MCX Nickel Jan: As long as 555.00 - 548.00 levels support expect prices to move higher towards 585.0 -596.0 levels .Only a fall below 548.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 540 S2: 525 R1: 575 R2: 597

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Moved as expected. Expect dips to 273.0 - 270.0 to find support to move higher towards 289 -291 levels. Only a fall below 266.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 280 S2: 275 R1: 292 R2: 300

VIEWS ON COMMODITY FOR 08-01-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:This is the sideways trading we have pointed out to earlier! The metal is trading between the 61.8% correction at 835.40 as seen in the picture above and the key resistance for the medium term descending channel near 874.45 which is slipping further day after day. The downside trend will gain strength if gold breached the support level at 835.40 and trades below it on the four hour charts where our target will be 805.40. However currently, gold is still in a sideways channel and we expect to day for high volatility with slight upside corrections. Our expectations remain valid unless the metal builds a solid base above 890.55

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Sharp trading is witnessed on the metal but up till now we have yet to see trading above the key resistance where if breached, this will open the way for silver to incline. Despite that, we expect high volatility today similar to yesterday's session if the metal failed to breach the 11.83 level and build a solid base above it.

NYMEX TECHNICALS-Just as we expected, crude fell sharply since most of the trading was below the 47.90 level where we also expect the price to continue falling today. However, this doesn't mean that we will not see slight upside waves unless the pair falls to levels below 46.75 which will then open the way to 39.10.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.10 and the key resistance at 48.50

EURO TECHNICALS;The incline seen by the pair during yesterday's session took it near the 100 hour MA that is found at the 1.3660 level which is just before a minor resistance level at 1.3670. The pair will once again retest this level but failind to breach it will result in a reverse to the downside that will be confirmed by trading below the 1.3560 with a hourly close.

MCX Gold Feb: Expect 13374 - 13406 levels to cap the upside for prices to move lower towards 12872 levels. Only a rise above 13626 to negate this Bearish view. S1: 13150 S2: 13085 R1: 13320 R2: 13410

MCX Silver Mar: Initially we expect 18530 -18628 levels to cap rallies for prices to move lower to support levels which lie in a range of 17378 - 17181. A breach of 17180 will take price lower towards 16705 -16770 levels. However a rise above 18661 will signal that the expected dip may not materialize and prices could move higher. S1:18000 S2:17700 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect 2203- 2234 levels to cap the upside for prices to move lower towards 2010 levels.Only a rise above 2255 to negate this Bearish view. S1: 2115 S2: 2065 R1: 2250 R2:2310

MCX Copper February: Expect 168.00 -171.00 levels to cap rallies for a move lower towards support levels which lie at 155.00 -152.75 levels. A rise above 171.35 levels could take the prices higher. S1: 160 S2:157 R1: 168 R2:172

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect rallies to 63.00- 63.20 to find resistance for a move lower towards 59.00 levels .A rise above 63.25 would signal bullishness in prices. S1: 60.50 S2: 59.35 R1: 62.50 R2: 63.80

MCX Lead Jan: Initially price is expected to find resistance 57.7 - 58.00 levels for a move lower towards strong support levels at 55.25 ,from where price could turn upwards.S1: 55.50 S2: 54.20 R1: 57.40 R2: 58.35

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect rallies to 605.0 - 610.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 565.0 -570.0 levels . A rise above 613.0 would signal bullishness in prices.S1: 570 S2: 550 R1: 620 R2: 645

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect rallies to 290.0 - 296.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 276.0 - 270.0 levels . A rise above 298.0 would signal bullishness in prices.S1: 280 S2: 275 R1: 292 R2: 300

OUTLOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MEDIUM TERM TREND ON GOLD:Gold's trend has been in a neutral state for quite some time, as the short-term recovery from 682 battles the broader decline from 1032. This recovery has moved above the upper boundary of the broader bear channel, but it's having trouble with secondary resistance from 890 to 898. Still only a move above the 931 big reaction high from early October would mean the broader bear trend is losing the battle against the recovery. On the flipside, with the dominant cycle in its plateau phase, the key support to watch in the short term runs from 833 to 829. Only a break there would give us the first sign that this 20-week cycle is indeed topping. The next support zone from 811 to 798 would then come into focus

MEDIUM TERM COPPER OUTL LOOK(LME):-Bottoms to both the 20- and 40-week nominal cycles are overdue in copper, standing in contrast to the underlying bear that has controlled the trend since august. Proof is in the price action, and the recent move above 3380 is the first sign of a bullish resolution to this conflict. The next resistance runs from the 3582 Fibonacci level and the next important reaction high at 3840. Penetration of this level would drive home the bullish case opening the door for a run at the 4054 Fibonacci obstacle ahead of the 4820 previous wave (4) high

MEDIUM TERM NYMEX CRUDE OUTLOOK:-The sharp collapse in oil from the july high has been oversold since September, but only recently has it begun to actually stall. The recovery from the 32.40 trend low moved above the bear channel line and has recently probed resistance from the most recent reaction high at 50.05, the first confirmation that the bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs is at least on hold,The next notable resistance is the next reaction high at 55.98. Momentum conditions are keeping the wind at the back of this recovery, but it'll take a move above a tough Fibonacci cluster in the 62.22/64.64 region to make a strong case for a notable bull trend unfolding

GLOBAL MCX COMMODITY OUT LOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MCX Gold Feb: Support at 13100 has been tested and now the price can stay above that level for inching up further towards next resistance points at 13808 followed by 13901. The ideal projected target falls at 14447 for the present structure. Intraday dips should ideally hold above 13278/13309.Fall below 13245 would warn about the possibility of failure of this view.S1: 13285 S2: 13200 R1: 13450 R2: 13525

MCX Silver Mar: A dip to 18449/18366 is anticipated. If it proceeds further down below 18350 the decline could accelerate towards 17987. It has to rise above 18860 to turn bullish for attempting 19107/19272. As of now indicators favor the downside. S1:18150 S2:18000 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Daily chart shows a potential to rise towards 196.00. Supports are near 170.30 $ 167.60. Projected target falls near 181.33. It needs to fall below 162.70 to hint at a stronger pullback.S1: 166 S2:162 R1: 175 R2:180

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Supports near 2295/2290 or 2202 could hold corrective dips. The structure is bullish for a rise towards 2550 or even 2617. Fall below 2181 would cause doubts about maintaining this bullish stance. S1: 2340 S2: 2285 R1: 2465 R2:2510

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 63.75/63.50 to find support for a move higher towards 66.50/68.00 levels. Only a move below 62.60 to take prices lower now.S1: 63.50 S2: 62.20 R1: 65.70 R2: 66.80

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 57.50/57.00 to find support for a move higher towards 62.00/64.50 levels. Only a move below 57.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 57.50 S2: 56.20 R1: 60.00 R2: 61.00

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 636 / 628 to support prices for a move higher towards 685-695 levels .Only a move below 607 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 620 S2: 600 R1: 665 R2: 690

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 284- 288 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 275 to negate this bullish view.S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

FOREX TECHNICAL VIEW ON EURO FOR THE DAY:The euro entered the downside wave expected which was quite vigorous taking the pair near the 1.3310 level yet was able to rebound as we currently see trading above the 100% correction at 1.3475 where from there we expect the pair could find the chance to correct to the upside. However, the general trend for the pair remains to the downside and any upside correction will be an attempt to gather bearish momentum to reverse once again. At any moment trading falls below the 1.3475 level, the downside trend will continue

TRADING IDEA:Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3470. If the stop loss is triggered, sell the pair below 1.3475 with targets at 1.3375 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.3540

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE DAY:-Yesterday we pointed out that after the fall, we expect to see volatility in the markets. After yesterday's decline, the metal rebounded back to the upside before slightly dropping today during the early session. Gold is now seen to enter a sideways channel between the 880 and 830 levels to complete the bearish trend. Today we could also see slight inclines but we don't expect it to affect the short term trend. The short term downside trend will be reversed only if we see a successful breakout of the 890.55 level

COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW:The fall didn't continue yesterday for long as it rebounded back to the upside but failed to form a top higher than the previous top during the beginning of the week and therefore the downside trend remains dominating silver. We see the metal in an overbought area on the stochastic indicator on the four hour charts where from there we expect to see high volatility with slight tendency to the downside

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL VIEW:After reversing from the minor resistance level at 50.15 and before reaching the suggested taret near the 50 day MA at 51.45, crude entered a downside wave that is expected to continue falling to reach the support level at 38.75 affected by a negative technical trend that will be confirmed if trading remains below 47.90. The next downside target is 45.85 and 45.25 as far as trading remains below the above mentioned level.

VIEWS FOR 6th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Expect prices to find support in the region of 13146/13115 levels for a corrective pullback towards 13600/13630 levels which are strong resistance zones from where a move lower cam be expected .A direct fall below 13131 will cause doubt about a possible rally and could see pries testing 12772/12750 levels. Direct rise above 13785 would be bullish. S1: 13250 S2: 13175 R1: 13340 R2: 13425

MCX Silver Mar: Expect prices to find support in the 17585/17635 zones for a move higher towards 19485/19650 levels. A direct fall below 17420 will cause doubt about this view.S1:18150 S2:18000 R1:18450 R2:18750

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect dips to find support in the region of 2255/2240 regions for a move higher towards 2512 followed by 2531 regions.However a direct fall below 2211 could see prices testing 2124 first, which are also strong support levels.A direct rise above 2385 could see prices testing the above-mentioned levels directly before the expected dip. S1: 2265 S2: 2200 R1: 2395 R2:2445

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 61.50 / 61.00 to find support for price to move higher towards 64.60/65.00 levels.A fall below 60.65 will negate this bullish view.S1: 61.50 S2: 60.20 R1: 63.70 R2: 64.80

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 54.50/54.00 to find support for a move higher towards 58.50/59.00 levels.Only a move below 52.50 to take prices lower now. S1: 53.50 S2: 52.50 R1: 55.75 R2: 56.85

MCX Copper February: Buy on dips to 163.6 /161.50 s/l 153.80 t/p 178.00. S1: 154 S2: 150 R1: 162 R2:166

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 610 / 605 to support prices for a move higher towards 658 , 665 levels. Only a move below 590 to cause doubts about this view.
S1: 600 S2: 585 R1: 640 R2: 665

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 277- 265 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 265 to negate this bullish view. S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

VIEWS FOR 5TH JANUARY 2009

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL FOR NEAR TERM:A breakout and close above the trading lower top of 43.44$ has been witnessed. The close for 2 trading days has been above 43.44$.
It looks then Crude Oil is likely to see a pullback rally of the fall from 130$ to 32.4$. The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels are placed at 55.90$ and 69.77$.
Corrective dip to 43.72$-41$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 36.94$


COMEX GOLD NEAR TERM VIEW:The range for international spot gold is 891$-855$.
The rising trend line is slight steep therefore if Gold fails to sustain at the resistance of 882$-891$ then can slip down sharply.
Traders holding long positions can take profit on rise to resistance and re-enter long on close above 891$.
In case of a further breakout and close above 891$ then expect a rise towards 930$ at least


GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK IN MCX:


MCX Gold Feb: Prices are consolidating between 13227 : 13721 levels as of now. Expect support at 13335 13366 to hold for a rally towards 13767 13813 .A break below 13210 will negate this bullish view. S1: 13450 S2: 13385 R1: 13630 R2: 13700


MCX Silver Mar: Expect supports at 18241: 18371 to hold for a rally towards 19428 : 19510.A break below 17883 will negate this bullish view.S1:18300 S2:18000 R1:18750 R2:19050


MCX Copper February: Expect supports at 151.0- 152.0 to hold for a rally towards 165.0 : 166.0.A break below 148.00 to negate this bullish view.S1: 154 S2: 150 R1: 162 R2:166


MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect dips to 2151 : 2165 to hold for a rally towards. 2408 : 2433.A break below 2065 to negate bullishness.S1: 2185 S2: 2120. R1: 2295 R2:2345


MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 60.50 / 60.00 to find support for price to move higher towards 63.60/64.00 levels.A fall below 58.00 will negate this bullish view. S1: 60.50 S2: 59.20 R1: 61.70 R2: 62.80 MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 50.50/49.00 to find support for a move higher towards 55.50/56.00 levels.Only a move below 48.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 52.50 S2: 51.00 R1: 55.00 R2: 56.15


MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 615 / 605 to support prices for a move higher towards 655 : 660 levels .Only a move below 585 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 615 S2: 585 R1: 650 R2: 675 MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 277- 265 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 265 to negate this bullish view. S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

INR UPDATE FOR NEAR TERM:USDINR (48.42) Dollar Rupee has given a strong recovery after breaking the previous bottom. While a higher top is yet to be made, the pair is showing strength in the short term. Take a positive view if holds above 48.80. Bearish only on close below 47.00. Outlook: Bias is neutral. Support Levels: 47.50/47.00/45.10 Resistance Levels: 48.80/50.15/53.00

COMEX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:High volatility in the markets accompanied by several attempts to incline have failed where the current trend for the metal is still to the downside. If our expectations are true and gold does depreciate, it could extend its losses towards 849.00 at the very least as far as we see no four hour closings above the 894.05 level on ths short term trend and the 887.10 level on the intraday basis.

NTMEX CRUDE TRADING STRATERGY:Further upside movements resulted from the breach of the 39.85 resistance level where today we could witness a short term upside channel but with intraday volatility. We see this bullish movements is targeting the 50 day MA at 51.80 but as the market opened on a gap, crude may fluctuate heavily with possible downside corrections but as far as trading remains above 44.60, the upside trend on the short term will continue.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.75 and the key resistance at 52.40