Monday, January 5, 2009

VIEWS FOR 5TH JANUARY 2009

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL FOR NEAR TERM:A breakout and close above the trading lower top of 43.44$ has been witnessed. The close for 2 trading days has been above 43.44$.
It looks then Crude Oil is likely to see a pullback rally of the fall from 130$ to 32.4$. The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels are placed at 55.90$ and 69.77$.
Corrective dip to 43.72$-41$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 36.94$


COMEX GOLD NEAR TERM VIEW:The range for international spot gold is 891$-855$.
The rising trend line is slight steep therefore if Gold fails to sustain at the resistance of 882$-891$ then can slip down sharply.
Traders holding long positions can take profit on rise to resistance and re-enter long on close above 891$.
In case of a further breakout and close above 891$ then expect a rise towards 930$ at least


GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK IN MCX:


MCX Gold Feb: Prices are consolidating between 13227 : 13721 levels as of now. Expect support at 13335 13366 to hold for a rally towards 13767 13813 .A break below 13210 will negate this bullish view. S1: 13450 S2: 13385 R1: 13630 R2: 13700


MCX Silver Mar: Expect supports at 18241: 18371 to hold for a rally towards 19428 : 19510.A break below 17883 will negate this bullish view.S1:18300 S2:18000 R1:18750 R2:19050


MCX Copper February: Expect supports at 151.0- 152.0 to hold for a rally towards 165.0 : 166.0.A break below 148.00 to negate this bullish view.S1: 154 S2: 150 R1: 162 R2:166


MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect dips to 2151 : 2165 to hold for a rally towards. 2408 : 2433.A break below 2065 to negate bullishness.S1: 2185 S2: 2120. R1: 2295 R2:2345


MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 60.50 / 60.00 to find support for price to move higher towards 63.60/64.00 levels.A fall below 58.00 will negate this bullish view. S1: 60.50 S2: 59.20 R1: 61.70 R2: 62.80 MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 50.50/49.00 to find support for a move higher towards 55.50/56.00 levels.Only a move below 48.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 52.50 S2: 51.00 R1: 55.00 R2: 56.15


MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 615 / 605 to support prices for a move higher towards 655 : 660 levels .Only a move below 585 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 615 S2: 585 R1: 650 R2: 675 MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 277- 265 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 265 to negate this bullish view. S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

INR UPDATE FOR NEAR TERM:USDINR (48.42) Dollar Rupee has given a strong recovery after breaking the previous bottom. While a higher top is yet to be made, the pair is showing strength in the short term. Take a positive view if holds above 48.80. Bearish only on close below 47.00. Outlook: Bias is neutral. Support Levels: 47.50/47.00/45.10 Resistance Levels: 48.80/50.15/53.00


COMEX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:High volatility in the markets accompanied by several attempts to incline have failed where the current trend for the metal is still to the downside. If our expectations are true and gold does depreciate, it could extend its losses towards 849.00 at the very least as far as we see no four hour closings above the 894.05 level on ths short term trend and the 887.10 level on the intraday basis.

NTMEX CRUDE TRADING STRATERGY:Further upside movements resulted from the breach of the 39.85 resistance level where today we could witness a short term upside channel but with intraday volatility. We see this bullish movements is targeting the 50 day MA at 51.80 but as the market opened on a gap, crude may fluctuate heavily with possible downside corrections but as far as trading remains above 44.60, the upside trend on the short term will continue.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.75 and the key resistance at 52.40

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