OUTLOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MEDIUM TERM TREND ON GOLD:Gold's trend has been in a neutral state for quite some time, as the short-term recovery from 682 battles the broader decline from 1032. This recovery has moved above the upper boundary of the broader bear channel, but it's having trouble with secondary resistance from 890 to 898. Still only a move above the 931 big reaction high from early October would mean the broader bear trend is losing the battle against the recovery. On the flipside, with the dominant cycle in its plateau phase, the key support to watch in the short term runs from 833 to 829. Only a break there would give us the first sign that this 20-week cycle is indeed topping. The next support zone from 811 to 798 would then come into focus

MEDIUM TERM COPPER OUTL LOOK(LME):-Bottoms to both the 20- and 40-week nominal cycles are overdue in copper, standing in contrast to the underlying bear that has controlled the trend since august. Proof is in the price action, and the recent move above 3380 is the first sign of a bullish resolution to this conflict. The next resistance runs from the 3582 Fibonacci level and the next important reaction high at 3840. Penetration of this level would drive home the bullish case opening the door for a run at the 4054 Fibonacci obstacle ahead of the 4820 previous wave (4) high

MEDIUM TERM NYMEX CRUDE OUTLOOK:-The sharp collapse in oil from the july high has been oversold since September, but only recently has it begun to actually stall. The recovery from the 32.40 trend low moved above the bear channel line and has recently probed resistance from the most recent reaction high at 50.05, the first confirmation that the bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs is at least on hold,The next notable resistance is the next reaction high at 55.98. Momentum conditions are keeping the wind at the back of this recovery, but it'll take a move above a tough Fibonacci cluster in the 62.22/64.64 region to make a strong case for a notable bull trend unfolding

GLOBAL MCX COMMODITY OUT LOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MCX Gold Feb: Support at 13100 has been tested and now the price can stay above that level for inching up further towards next resistance points at 13808 followed by 13901. The ideal projected target falls at 14447 for the present structure. Intraday dips should ideally hold above 13278/13309.Fall below 13245 would warn about the possibility of failure of this view.S1: 13285 S2: 13200 R1: 13450 R2: 13525

MCX Silver Mar: A dip to 18449/18366 is anticipated. If it proceeds further down below 18350 the decline could accelerate towards 17987. It has to rise above 18860 to turn bullish for attempting 19107/19272. As of now indicators favor the downside. S1:18150 S2:18000 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Daily chart shows a potential to rise towards 196.00. Supports are near 170.30 $ 167.60. Projected target falls near 181.33. It needs to fall below 162.70 to hint at a stronger pullback.S1: 166 S2:162 R1: 175 R2:180

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Supports near 2295/2290 or 2202 could hold corrective dips. The structure is bullish for a rise towards 2550 or even 2617. Fall below 2181 would cause doubts about maintaining this bullish stance. S1: 2340 S2: 2285 R1: 2465 R2:2510

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 63.75/63.50 to find support for a move higher towards 66.50/68.00 levels. Only a move below 62.60 to take prices lower now.S1: 63.50 S2: 62.20 R1: 65.70 R2: 66.80

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 57.50/57.00 to find support for a move higher towards 62.00/64.50 levels. Only a move below 57.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 57.50 S2: 56.20 R1: 60.00 R2: 61.00

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 636 / 628 to support prices for a move higher towards 685-695 levels .Only a move below 607 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 620 S2: 600 R1: 665 R2: 690

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 284- 288 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 275 to negate this bullish view.S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

FOREX TECHNICAL VIEW ON EURO FOR THE DAY:The euro entered the downside wave expected which was quite vigorous taking the pair near the 1.3310 level yet was able to rebound as we currently see trading above the 100% correction at 1.3475 where from there we expect the pair could find the chance to correct to the upside. However, the general trend for the pair remains to the downside and any upside correction will be an attempt to gather bearish momentum to reverse once again. At any moment trading falls below the 1.3475 level, the downside trend will continue

TRADING IDEA:Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3470. If the stop loss is triggered, sell the pair below 1.3475 with targets at 1.3375 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.3540

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE DAY:-Yesterday we pointed out that after the fall, we expect to see volatility in the markets. After yesterday's decline, the metal rebounded back to the upside before slightly dropping today during the early session. Gold is now seen to enter a sideways channel between the 880 and 830 levels to complete the bearish trend. Today we could also see slight inclines but we don't expect it to affect the short term trend. The short term downside trend will be reversed only if we see a successful breakout of the 890.55 level

COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW:The fall didn't continue yesterday for long as it rebounded back to the upside but failed to form a top higher than the previous top during the beginning of the week and therefore the downside trend remains dominating silver. We see the metal in an overbought area on the stochastic indicator on the four hour charts where from there we expect to see high volatility with slight tendency to the downside

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL VIEW:After reversing from the minor resistance level at 50.15 and before reaching the suggested taret near the 50 day MA at 51.45, crude entered a downside wave that is expected to continue falling to reach the support level at 38.75 affected by a negative technical trend that will be confirmed if trading remains below 47.90. The next downside target is 45.85 and 45.25 as far as trading remains below the above mentioned level.