COMEX GOLD :: Rarely do technical indicators fail if it moves consistntly with a trend! This is what we witnessed the past two days when the metal rebounded from the 871- 884 critical levels on the short and medium terms. Today we see further declines as far as 866.95 remains intact without any four hour closing where we expect gold to retreat to 830.80 at the very least.
LONG TERM COMEX GOLD :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.30 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .
COMEX SILVER :: Silver lost all its momentum during yesterday's session and entered a downside channel where it is expected to continue today. On the intrday basis, we see a slight possibility for upside movements but as far as 11.11 remains intact the metal could decline to 10.50.
COMEX SILVER LONG TERM :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 14.70 remains intact with targets at 8.05 and 7.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .
EURO :: Due to the pair failing to close above 1.4620 on the four hour charts, it entered a downside channel that took it back to the 50% correction at 1.4210 - 1.4250 but at the same time price is still within an ascending channel with a key support at 1.4115. Despite us seeing a need for further declines, a rebound from the 1.4210 - 1.4250 to the upside is still possible.
LONG TERM EURO :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions.
HIGH ALERT:If spot gold does not break $930 by 10th January then it will fall to $750 and $680 in January,2009
Friday, December 19, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
VIEWS FOR 17th DECEMBER 2008
GOLD TECHNICALS:The targets indicate yesterday were reached where the metal was able to hit the 76.4 percent correction for the trend illustrated above at 857.30 - 858.20. Gold is now at a critical area where price is being affected by three resistance levels at 857.30 , 865.70 and finally 871.75 where these levels could end the upside wave and reverse the trend to the downside but needs to be confirmed by a daily close below 822.60. Currently, we advise cautious trading giving priority to the upside movment due to the support level at 836.40 which could be a good demand point to result in reaching further upside targets yet the end to this wave is near.
SILVER TECHNICALS;Finally, the target at 11.05 was reached and the metal is now trading above this level where it is also at a critical area since a daily close above the mentioned level will open the way to 12.65 whereas a reverse to the downside will take silver to 10.53 at the very least.
CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude failed to confirm the upside direction where from there it will continue to decline as far as trading remains below 50.50. Despite several signals of an incline, we still need to see confirmation. Today we expect trading to be sideways but at anytime we could witness a sharp decling below the 40 level if crude isn't able to build a solid base above 48.60 oday or in the upcoming days.
EURO TECHNICALS:A vigorous upside movement neglected the fact that the pair was being overbought and as a result reached the 50% correction for the downside wave that started on 15-7-2008 and ended on 27-10-2008 at 1.4185. At the same time, we see trading is still above the 161.8% as seen in the image where this level is at 1.3945 and has become a key support for the pair. The chance is still opened for more gains yet as momentum indicators show that the pair is being overbought could result in high volatility and therefore trading today could be disrupted by a downside correction yet the overall trend is still to the upside depending on 1.3945 and the key support for the ascending channel at 1.3780.
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3960 with targets at 1.4315 and stop loss below 1.3815
MCX Gold Feb: As expected we will see rally towards 13245 as spot gold is strong. Corrective dips to find support at 12925 levels now.Very important support is at 12860 now for a possible test of 13553. S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105
MCX Silver Mar: Break and close above 17702 has resulted in a bullish reaction as envisaged. Supports are at 17981 followed by 17669 now.As long as 17653 hold, we can expect a gradual test of 20051.S1:17200 S2:16900 R1:17750 R2:17950
MCX Copper February: Still dangling for direction. Failure to surpass 165.8 and a weak close to add to bearishness.Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 ranges now. Break below could lead prices lower towards 138/139 .S1: 148 S2: 144 R1: 158 R2:162
MCX Crude Oil Jan : While above 2285 a hesitant rise towards 2414/2430 or ideally towards 2477 is anticipated.From there it could start falling again towards 2272 or lower. Rise above 2495 would be a bullish sign.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2385 R2:2425
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now. S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Lead Dec: Supports at 46.50 levels . Expect dips to find support at these levels for a move higher towards 50.0 levels .A break below 46.50 would take prices lower. S1: 46.50 S2: 46.00 R1: 48.00 R2: 49.15
MCX Nickel Dec: A break below 460.0 could take prices lower towards 445-450 levels . Important resistance at 478-485 levels. S1: 450 S2: 435 R1: 480 R2: 505
GOLDspot hit a high of 859.95 Overnight.866-950 Are next targets. But favoured view expects dips initially esp if 848 fails to hold. 834 Is a buying level. Weakness start below 828. Sup820/805/787/778
RUPEE strengthens to 1 month high after US Fed cut. USD/INR47.3850 (1.14%). Due to this global counters' gains would look smaller than its international counterparts.But expect 47 to hold
BUY ON CORRECTIVE DIPS 10.95-10.63 SL 10.40 TGT 11.51-11.83-12.30
BUY GOLD 12950-12980 SL 12900 TGT 13100
GOLD: BUY AT 848 OR ON DIP TO 838 SL 830 TGT 871-888 IN COMMING SESSION
SILVER TECHNICALS;Finally, the target at 11.05 was reached and the metal is now trading above this level where it is also at a critical area since a daily close above the mentioned level will open the way to 12.65 whereas a reverse to the downside will take silver to 10.53 at the very least.
CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude failed to confirm the upside direction where from there it will continue to decline as far as trading remains below 50.50. Despite several signals of an incline, we still need to see confirmation. Today we expect trading to be sideways but at anytime we could witness a sharp decling below the 40 level if crude isn't able to build a solid base above 48.60 oday or in the upcoming days.
EURO TECHNICALS:A vigorous upside movement neglected the fact that the pair was being overbought and as a result reached the 50% correction for the downside wave that started on 15-7-2008 and ended on 27-10-2008 at 1.4185. At the same time, we see trading is still above the 161.8% as seen in the image where this level is at 1.3945 and has become a key support for the pair. The chance is still opened for more gains yet as momentum indicators show that the pair is being overbought could result in high volatility and therefore trading today could be disrupted by a downside correction yet the overall trend is still to the upside depending on 1.3945 and the key support for the ascending channel at 1.3780.
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3960 with targets at 1.4315 and stop loss below 1.3815
MCX Gold Feb: As expected we will see rally towards 13245 as spot gold is strong. Corrective dips to find support at 12925 levels now.Very important support is at 12860 now for a possible test of 13553. S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105
MCX Silver Mar: Break and close above 17702 has resulted in a bullish reaction as envisaged. Supports are at 17981 followed by 17669 now.As long as 17653 hold, we can expect a gradual test of 20051.S1:17200 S2:16900 R1:17750 R2:17950
MCX Copper February: Still dangling for direction. Failure to surpass 165.8 and a weak close to add to bearishness.Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 ranges now. Break below could lead prices lower towards 138/139 .S1: 148 S2: 144 R1: 158 R2:162
MCX Crude Oil Jan : While above 2285 a hesitant rise towards 2414/2430 or ideally towards 2477 is anticipated.From there it could start falling again towards 2272 or lower. Rise above 2495 would be a bullish sign.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2385 R2:2425
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now. S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Lead Dec: Supports at 46.50 levels . Expect dips to find support at these levels for a move higher towards 50.0 levels .A break below 46.50 would take prices lower. S1: 46.50 S2: 46.00 R1: 48.00 R2: 49.15
MCX Nickel Dec: A break below 460.0 could take prices lower towards 445-450 levels . Important resistance at 478-485 levels. S1: 450 S2: 435 R1: 480 R2: 505
GOLDspot hit a high of 859.95 Overnight.866-950 Are next targets. But favoured view expects dips initially esp if 848 fails to hold. 834 Is a buying level. Weakness start below 828. Sup820/805/787/778
RUPEE strengthens to 1 month high after US Fed cut. USD/INR47.3850 (1.14%). Due to this global counters' gains would look smaller than its international counterparts.But expect 47 to hold
BUY ON CORRECTIVE DIPS 10.95-10.63 SL 10.40 TGT 11.51-11.83-12.30
BUY GOLD 12950-12980 SL 12900 TGT 13100
GOLD: BUY AT 848 OR ON DIP TO 838 SL 830 TGT 871-888 IN COMMING SESSION
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
VIEWS FOR 16TH DECEMBER 2008
Releases CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
UKCPI and RPI figures (Nov)08:30 Should all be lower than exp.
USCPI figures (Nov)12:30Big drops drop Expectations overdone?
USFOMC Rate Decision 18:150.25%1.00%Analysts expect 0.50%
COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:Yesterday's closing was above the 61.8% correction just as we expected. Gold may now enter an upside wave once again to take it to levels between 857.30 and 865.70 where targets are as far as 871.85 for the upcoming short term ascending channel. Initially, we see the metal needs a downside correction as seen on momentum indicators that show gold being overbought. However, as far as 822.60 remains intact, the metal may continue to incline.
COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:A successful breakout of the key resistance for the sideways triangle resulted in the creation of a new upside wave. We see the metal trading within an overbought area on the momentum indicators yet as it breached the above mentioned resistance level, the short term upside trend will remain but could be volatile due to being overbought. Silver is targeting 11.05 as far as trading is above 10.25
NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A serious attempt in breaching the descending channel to the downside failed after crude returned to trade within the downside channel that has a resistance now at 46.00 whereas the 100 day MA on the one hour charts at 47.90 is gaining strength. Due to yesterday's incline, we could see crude extend its gains today once again to breach the mentioned resistance. An upside movement will not be confirmed unless trading remains above 48.50 or better yet, above 50.50 since the 50 mark was a strong resistance yesterday.The trading range for today is among the key support at 42.35 and the key resistance at 52.40
EVENING CALL BUY GOLD 12790-830 SL 12720 TGT 12920-12960-13000 ABV 13000 HIGHLY BULLISH TGT 13100-13250
SILVER BUY 17200-300 SL 17000 TGT 17500-17750
MCX Gold Feb: Corrective dips to 12793/12810 to find good support for the day and then rise higher towards 13075 or even higher towards 13226.Unexpected fall below 12700 to postpone the bullishness.S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105
MCX Silver Mar: As expected we saw a test of 17700 once again. Failure to close above this level decisively could lead to a sell-off again.Immediate supports are at 17354 followed by 17124. Unexpected fall below 16910 to accelerate the fall.However, a daily close above 17750 to bolster bullish expectations for a 19396.S1:17100 S2:16800 R1:17550 R2:17750
MCX Copper February: Failure to surpass 166.0 and a weak close to add to bearishness. Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 range now.Break below could lead prices lower towards 138.70/140.0 .S1: 152 S2: 148 R1: 160 R2:165
MCX Crude Oil Jan : First line of supports is near 2238/2248.5 followed by the next level near 2160/2181. Favoured view expects a rebound from any of these supports towards 2455. Fall below 2155 would hint that price could fall further towards the breakdown point at 2093.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2400 R2:2460
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 475- 465 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels.A fall below 445 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 465 S2: 442 R1:510 R2: 532
MCX Natural Gas Jan :- As long as 266.0-263.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 258 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290
SPOT GOLD:: GOLDspot: Bias is +ve. $834 And 828 are entry points for rallies targetting 844-854-866. Break of 828 indicates bearish bias. Free fall below 820. Sup805/787/787 EXPECTATION : EXPECT SUPPORT TO HOLD FOR RALLIES
UKCPI and RPI figures (Nov)08:30 Should all be lower than exp.
USCPI figures (Nov)12:30Big drops drop Expectations overdone?
USFOMC Rate Decision 18:150.25%1.00%Analysts expect 0.50%
COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:Yesterday's closing was above the 61.8% correction just as we expected. Gold may now enter an upside wave once again to take it to levels between 857.30 and 865.70 where targets are as far as 871.85 for the upcoming short term ascending channel. Initially, we see the metal needs a downside correction as seen on momentum indicators that show gold being overbought. However, as far as 822.60 remains intact, the metal may continue to incline.
COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:A successful breakout of the key resistance for the sideways triangle resulted in the creation of a new upside wave. We see the metal trading within an overbought area on the momentum indicators yet as it breached the above mentioned resistance level, the short term upside trend will remain but could be volatile due to being overbought. Silver is targeting 11.05 as far as trading is above 10.25
NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A serious attempt in breaching the descending channel to the downside failed after crude returned to trade within the downside channel that has a resistance now at 46.00 whereas the 100 day MA on the one hour charts at 47.90 is gaining strength. Due to yesterday's incline, we could see crude extend its gains today once again to breach the mentioned resistance. An upside movement will not be confirmed unless trading remains above 48.50 or better yet, above 50.50 since the 50 mark was a strong resistance yesterday.The trading range for today is among the key support at 42.35 and the key resistance at 52.40
EVENING CALL BUY GOLD 12790-830 SL 12720 TGT 12920-12960-13000 ABV 13000 HIGHLY BULLISH TGT 13100-13250
SILVER BUY 17200-300 SL 17000 TGT 17500-17750
MCX Gold Feb: Corrective dips to 12793/12810 to find good support for the day and then rise higher towards 13075 or even higher towards 13226.Unexpected fall below 12700 to postpone the bullishness.S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105
MCX Silver Mar: As expected we saw a test of 17700 once again. Failure to close above this level decisively could lead to a sell-off again.Immediate supports are at 17354 followed by 17124. Unexpected fall below 16910 to accelerate the fall.However, a daily close above 17750 to bolster bullish expectations for a 19396.S1:17100 S2:16800 R1:17550 R2:17750
MCX Copper February: Failure to surpass 166.0 and a weak close to add to bearishness. Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 range now.Break below could lead prices lower towards 138.70/140.0 .S1: 152 S2: 148 R1: 160 R2:165
MCX Crude Oil Jan : First line of supports is near 2238/2248.5 followed by the next level near 2160/2181. Favoured view expects a rebound from any of these supports towards 2455. Fall below 2155 would hint that price could fall further towards the breakdown point at 2093.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2400 R2:2460
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 475- 465 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels.A fall below 445 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 465 S2: 442 R1:510 R2: 532
MCX Natural Gas Jan :- As long as 266.0-263.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 258 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290
SPOT GOLD:: GOLDspot: Bias is +ve. $834 And 828 are entry points for rallies targetting 844-854-866. Break of 828 indicates bearish bias. Free fall below 820. Sup805/787/787 EXPECTATION : EXPECT SUPPORT TO HOLD FOR RALLIES
Monday, December 15, 2008
VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 15TH DECEMBER
MCX Gold Feb: Dips to 12716/12732 to hold supports for an initial test of 13152. Further resistances are at 13386 and 13728.For the week we favor a test of 13728 as long as 12560 hold.S1: 12735 S2: 12650 R1: 12900 R2: 13005
MCX Silver Mar: Immediate resistance is at 17620 and stronger ones are at 17870/17937. A break and close above 18004/18037 should open the way for a sharp rise towards 19791 or even higher towards 21127. This is our favored view. However, failure to surpass 17954. regions could re-in force bearish expectations. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550
MCX Copper February: Once again bullish signs appear. Rise and close above 168.0 to trigger a clear bullish move. Initial resistance is at 175.0 followed by 183.50/185.50 levels. Important supports are at 160.70 followed by 155.16 S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176
MCX Crude Oil Jan : Price could attempt to rise towards levels like 2586/2612 or even 2720. Short-term dips if any could be held near 2400/2423 or maximum 2317 for an upturn. It has to fall below 2300 to reassess the situation. S1: 2385 S2: 2325 R1: 2475 R2:2550
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels . Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 500 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels. A fall below 495 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 485 S2: 465 R1:520 R2: 550
GOLD COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATE:Gold started the week slightly inclining but still below the 835.75 critical level which halts the metal from extending thegains to reach 858.20 and 866.45 respectively. Trading above the 806.85 level will result in the pair attempting to retest the above mentioned resistance level to achieve the next targets
SILVER COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATEnce again, silver is trading below the key support for the sideways triangle attempting to breach it to reach 11.05. We should monitor the intraday trend as the metal is declining due to trading below the mentioned resistance at 10.46 however the breach of this level will open the way for the metal to reach its targets gradually.
CRUDE NYMEX TECHNICALS:Crude is trading below the resistance level at 47.55 and the 100 day MA on the four hour charts at 48.45. If prices remain below this level, we will see a significant drop yet we should remain cautious since trading above the 100 day MA will reverse the trend on the intraday basis for today and will incline targeting 50.50
JACK POT CALL ::
BUY CRUDE IN DIP 45.50-44.30 SL BELOW 43.30 TGT 49 - 50.50 DAILY CLS ABV 49.50 WILL ZOOM TO 54-56
MCX Silver Mar: Immediate resistance is at 17620 and stronger ones are at 17870/17937. A break and close above 18004/18037 should open the way for a sharp rise towards 19791 or even higher towards 21127. This is our favored view. However, failure to surpass 17954. regions could re-in force bearish expectations. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550
MCX Copper February: Once again bullish signs appear. Rise and close above 168.0 to trigger a clear bullish move. Initial resistance is at 175.0 followed by 183.50/185.50 levels. Important supports are at 160.70 followed by 155.16 S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176
MCX Crude Oil Jan : Price could attempt to rise towards levels like 2586/2612 or even 2720. Short-term dips if any could be held near 2400/2423 or maximum 2317 for an upturn. It has to fall below 2300 to reassess the situation. S1: 2385 S2: 2325 R1: 2475 R2:2550
MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels . Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20
MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 500 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels. A fall below 495 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 485 S2: 465 R1:520 R2: 550
GOLD COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATE:Gold started the week slightly inclining but still below the 835.75 critical level which halts the metal from extending thegains to reach 858.20 and 866.45 respectively. Trading above the 806.85 level will result in the pair attempting to retest the above mentioned resistance level to achieve the next targets
SILVER COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATEnce again, silver is trading below the key support for the sideways triangle attempting to breach it to reach 11.05. We should monitor the intraday trend as the metal is declining due to trading below the mentioned resistance at 10.46 however the breach of this level will open the way for the metal to reach its targets gradually.
CRUDE NYMEX TECHNICALS:Crude is trading below the resistance level at 47.55 and the 100 day MA on the four hour charts at 48.45. If prices remain below this level, we will see a significant drop yet we should remain cautious since trading above the 100 day MA will reverse the trend on the intraday basis for today and will incline targeting 50.50
JACK POT CALL ::
BUY CRUDE IN DIP 45.50-44.30 SL BELOW 43.30 TGT 49 - 50.50 DAILY CLS ABV 49.50 WILL ZOOM TO 54-56
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