VIEWS FOR 4TH DECEMBER 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Any rallies to 18114/18130 or even higher towards 18175 to cap rallies
 for a fall towards 17577/17607. S1: 18098 S2: 18018 R1: 18260 R2: 18340.

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MCX Silver March: Rallies to 29020/29065 to cap for decline towards 27947/27717.
Unexpected rise above 29325 to force us to abandon our bearish view.
S1: 29120 S2: 28989 R1: 29380 R2: 29508.

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MCX Copper Feb: Resistance to 327.20/328.20 to cap for a fall towards 321.40 or
even lower towards 314.85. S1: 326.40 S2: 322.40 R1: 334.40 R2: 338.40.

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MCX Crude Oil December: Supports to 3452 to hold for a pullback higher towards
 3542/3554 only a rise above 3571 to change the picture to bullish.
S1: 3503 S2: 3463 R1: 3583 R2: 3623.

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MCX Zinc Dec: While below 111.9, expect dips to 107.60/107.0 levels.
S1: 109.20 S2: 108.20 R1: 111.50 R2: 112.70.

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MCX Lead Dec: While Below 113.0 levels expect prices to dip towards 108.60/108.0 levels.
S1: 110.0 S2: 109.00 R1: 112.00 R2: 113.70.

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MCX Nickel Dec: While below 767 expect prices to dip towards 722 levels.
S1: 738 S2: 728 R1: 759 R2: 772

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MCX Natural Gas Dec: Rallies to 210/212 to find resistance for a move lower towards
200 levels.A direct rise above 214 to raise doubts. S1: 203 S2: 200 R1: 209 R2: 213.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

Traders holding long can keep a stop loss of 17953.

Use rise from current price of 18197 to 18364 for profit booking.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 18365.

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-

Exit long positions at current price of 29271-29779 range as the opportunity arises.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken only on breakout and close above 29780 with low of the day stop loss.

Sell on fall below 28977 with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown

 

 

Watch out for:

Change in US Non Farm Payrolls

US Unemployment Rate

US Factory Orders

 

GOLD (spot): 1201.9

 

The fall from 1227 level, extended throughout the sessions yesterday as uncertainty shrouding  ECB rate announcement and today’s NFP/Unemployment data releases prompted long liquidation.

 

Favoured view expects 1200-1192 region to attract bargain hunting for a move higher towards 1218. Bullish view towards 1245-55 is still maintained, but we would look for a push above 1227/30 region before entering such directional trade.

 

Alternate Scenario

It would require a heavy fall below 1180 to entirely alter such bullish view. Favoured expects 1180 to hold for the near term.

 

Nymex Crude(Jan): Last 75.9

 

Choppiness to continue. Look for a few hours close above 76.5 before entering directional trade on the upside.

US Non Farm  payrolls/Unemployment data late in the week sets up conditions for intense volatility.

 

 

Comex Copper (Mar): Last 3.2225

 

3.20 region expected to hold for a strong push higher towards 3.25 – 3.30. US Non Farm  payrolls/Unemployment data late in the week sets up conditions for intense volatility

 

VIEWS FOR 3RD DECEMBER 2009 - MCX & COMEX

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY:-

Traders holding long can keep a stop loss of 17953.

Corrective dip to 18138-18037 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 17953.

Expect higher range of 18289-18390 to be tested

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 29300.

Expect higher range of 29805-30026 to be tested

 

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-

Corrective dip to 75$ or below can be used for buying with a stop loss of 72.

Alternatively, buy on rise and close above 79.10$

 

SPOT SILVER:-

Resistance will be at 19.45$-19.70$.

Negative divergence on 14 day RSI has been witnessed if we compare the current value to its peak, in relation to the price movement.

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 19$

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-

Overall stuck in sideways movement and at one point it looked that a breakout was possible but that was not to be seen.

Corrective dip to 4.15$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 3.98$.

Alternatively, wait for a breakout and close above 5.32$.

Overall once again look for rise from current price to 5.32$ to exit long

 

SPOT GOLD:-

International Spot Gold price is expected to move towards 1234$ a the 1 time and 1.618 Fibonacci level.

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 1193$

 

USD INR:-

Support will be at 45.7-45.5.

Resistance is at 46.44-47.10.

It is likely that some weakness in rupee is likely to be witnessed on cross over above the resistance. A pullback for USD could be seen against INR.

Expect weakness in USD on fall below 45.50

 

 

Watch out for:

ECB Rate announcement

Eurozone GDP, Retail Sales, German PMI

US Initial Jobless,

GOLD (spot): Last 1226

Morning moves have taken prices closer to our target of 1227 suggested yesterday.

We are still hopeful of another swing towards 1245-55 region, but would choose to be cautious from this point on wards. 1223 would be crucial for sustenance of the uptrend, and for an outright strengthening. A bend lower below 1223 could temporarily cause doubts, but 1215/10 band is likely to attract buying again. 

Nymex Crude(Jan):

Yesterday’s swing lower evolved precisely on anticipated lines, with 78.59 capping upside, and with 76.2 attracting bargain hunting. Favoured view expects a swing higher towards 78 today.A firm push below 76.2 would however force us abandon the positive view.

Comex Copper (Mar: Last

After a test of 2.43 levels anticipated yesterday, a downsing is now in progress, targetting 2.39, but a another violent rally towards 2.60 is very much in the cards as long 2.33 holds downside threats

MCX Gold Feb: Once again a corrective move evades the market. Supports at 18249/18264  to hold for 18489/18519. A correction from there looks evident.Fall below 18069 to begin  the corrective move. S1: 18107 S2: 18027 R1: 18267 R2: 18347.

MCX Silver March: Supports at 29386/29416 to hold for 29890-29921 or even higher towards  29951/29997.Fall below 29003 to begin a corrective move.  S1: 29455 S2: 29325 R1: 29715 R2: 29845.

MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 327.90/328.90 to hold for 332/334 now.Only a fall below  323.80/325 to begin a corrective move lower.S1: 328.60 S2: 324.60 R1: 336.60 R2: 340.60.

MCX Crude Oil December: Supports are at 3517 followed by 3498 to hold for a rally higher  towards 3642 and 3679.Fall below 3461 to dent our expectations.   S1: 3523 S2: 3483 R1: 3603 R2: 3643.

MCX Zinc Dec: Dips to 109.30/109.00 to find support for a move higher towards  113.50/114.0 levels.Fall below 107.0 to negate this view. S1:110.70 S2:108.80 R1:112.70 R2: 114.10.

MCX Lead Dec: Dips to 112.0/111.60 to find support for a move higher towards 116.0  levels.Fall below 110.0 to negate this bullish view. S1:112.35 S2:111.20 R1:114.70 R2:115.70.

 MCX Nickel Dec: While above 737 expect prices to rally higher towards 791 levels.  S1: 748 S2: 738 R1: 769 R2: 782

 

 MCX Natural Gas Dec: Rallies to 218/221 to find resistance for a move lower towards 204 levels. A direct rise above 227 to raise doubts. S1: 206 S2: 202 R1: 214 R2: 218 

ENJOY  TRADING !!!! 

LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICES FOR REAL TIME MCX & NCDEX CALLS

EXPECTATION FOR 2ND DECEMBER

Watch out for:

Intl GOLDspot above 1200. 1227 in sight?

Rubber continues to surge in TOCOM.

Eurozone PPI

US ADP & Challenger Jobs data

Fed speeches and Beige Book


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GOLD (spot): Targets1227- 50



The week has a lot of crucial economic data which presents set up for intense volatility, and the current momentum favours the uptrend to continue to atleast 1245-55 region, with chances of intermediate pause seen at 1220-27 region



Strategies

Buy with rallies.

Dips to 1198/1192 could also be bought.

Target 1227-1245


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Nymex Crude (Jan): Last 78.3

After yesterday’s swing higher towards 79.05, prices are still in the neutral region, as we are yet to see a close above 78.5, suggested yesterday. So, even though the bias is increasingly turning positive, we are less inclined to take a directive bullish view, until atleast we see a couple of hours of close above 78.5 today, in which case we could see 81.5. Meanwhile, dips to 76.2 would continue attracting bargain hunting


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Comex Copper (Mar): Last 3.2265



Dips to 3.18 could find support for a rise towards 3.26



INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-The trend line resistance has been crossed on closing basis in sustained manner.

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 18.36$.

Corrective dip to 18.88$ or below can be used for buying.



INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD:-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1194.

Corrective dip to 1201 can be used for buying.

Expect higher range of 1230$ to be tested



NYMEX NATURAL GAS;-A range bound movement has been develop now.

Till a further breakout and close above 5.32$ is not witnessed further rally cannot be seen.

Support is at 4.61$



NYMEX CRUDE;-Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 77$.

Expect higher range of 79.8-82$ can be used for profit booking



MCX GOLD TRADING STARATERGY;-Traders holding long can keep a stop loss of 17700.

Sell on fall below 17700 with high of the day stop loss.

Exit long positions on rise to 18120-18194 range as the opportunity arises.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 18082 with low of the day stop loss.

Corrective dip to 17891-17773 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 17700





MCX Gold Feb: Ideally, supports at 18031 to hold for 18180/18225 or even higher towards
18255.Unexpected fall below 17881 to result in a corrective fall.
S1: 17878 S2: 17798 R1: 18038 R2: 18118.


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MCX Silver March: Supports at 29028 to hold for a test of 29535/29564 or even higher
towards 29917/29945.Fall below 28906 to kick-start a sharp corrective decline.
S1: 29205 S2: 29075 R1: 29464 R2: 29595.


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MCX Copper Feb: Dips to 319/321 to hold for 329.50/331.20 levels.Fall below 317.90 to
lead into a corrective decline. S1: 324.75 S2: 320.75 R1: 332.75 R2: 336.75.


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MCX Crude Oil December: Important support is at 3584 followed by 3561. Ideally supports
to hold for a break above 3658 targeting 3758.Fall below 3554 to dent our bullish
expectation. S1: 3608 S2: 3568 R1: 3688 R2: 3728.


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MCX Zinc Dec: Dips to 107.30/107.00 to find support for a move higher towards
111.50/112.0 levels.Fall below 105.0 to negate this view.
S1: 107.70 S2: 106.80 R1: 109.70 R2: 111.10.


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MCX Lead Dec: Dips to 111.0/110.60 to find support for a move higher towards 115.0
levels.Fall below 108.0 to negate this bullish view.
S1: 110.35 S2: 109.20 R1: 113.70 R2: 114.70.


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MCX Nickel Dec: While above 737 expect prices to rally higher towards 791 levels.
S1: 748 S2: 738 R1: 769 R2: 782


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MCX Natural Gas Dec: Rallies to 233/235 to find resistance for a move lower towards
215/210 levels.A direct rise above 241 to raise doubts. S1: 222 S2: 218 R1: 230 R2: 234





MCX SILVER TARDING STARTERGY;-Corrective dip to 29093-28681 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 2440.

Expect higher range of 29746-30158 to be tested

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 30TH NOVEMBER 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Daily chart shows pullbacks can keep the price on course towards levels
above 18061.Big picture shows that a corrective dip to 17534 or 17308 also is possible.
Resistance points are near 17910 / 18136.If Fridays freak declines are at 17094 then the
rise from there could be to 17910/18136.This is the favored expectation.
S1: 17590 S2: 17510 R1: 17750 R2: 17830.

MCX Silver March: Supports near 28218 or maximum 27986/27893 could hold corrective dips
for next rise towards 28993.Once above 28993 the scope for further gains towards 29459
would improve.Weekly chart looks bullish for a rise towards 30465.It needs to fall below
27600 to cause doubts about this bullish view. S1: 28243 S2: 28113 R1: 28505 R2: 28633.

MCX Copper Feb: The weekly chart is bullish for a rise to 337. Supports in shorter-time
frame appear near 318.20/316.20.It needs to fall below 313.20 to cause doubts about this
bullish view. S1: 316.75 S2: 312.75 R1: 324.75 R2: 328.75

MCX Crude Oil December: The weekly charts indicators have turned negative after
the sharp decline in Friday.The chart appears bearish and would most probably get
resisted near 3575 or 3614/3624 for further decline to 3467 or even 3428.The daily line
chart may breakout to the upside towards 3787 or 3885. The second alternative looks more
probable.Direct rise above 3646 would lessen the existing downside.
S1: 3502 S2: 3462 R1: 3582 R2: 3622.


MCX Zinc Dec: Dips to 103.0/103.65 to find support for a move higher towards
106.50 / 107.0 levels.Fall below 102.0 to negate this view.
S1: 102.70 S2: 101.80 R1: 104.70 R2: 105.10.

MCX Lead Dec: While above 105.30 expect prices to rally higher towards 109.30 levels.
S1: 106.20 S2: 105.20 R1: 108.20 R2: 109.50


MCX Nickel Dec: While above 737 expect prices to rally higher towards 791 levels.
S1: 748 S2: 738 R1: 769 R2: 782

MCX Natural Gas Dec: While above 233 expect price to rally higher towards 252 or even Higher towards 261 levels. S1: 240 S2: 236 R1: 247 R2: 251


TRADING STRATEGY ::

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Exit long positions on rise from current price of 17700-18009 range as the opportunity arises.

Expect sideways correction before making any further attempts to cross the recent high of 18047.

Support will be at 17634-17296-17262.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :: On Friday, we had indicated to sell below 28338. The high and low registered on Friday was 28583 and 27538 respective.

Traders who sold below 28583 had the opportunity to benefit.

Cover short positions if any on dip to 28095-27608 range as the opportunity arises.

Traders who are stuck up with long positions can look for rise from current price of 28345-28653 to exit long positions.

Buy on rise above 28860

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

The rally had got steeper and vertical in last few weeks.
A trend line breakdown has been witnessed but the close is above the trend line.

Overall immediate objective from trading purpose can be to exit long positions on rise from current price of 1178$ to 1195$ as the opportunity arises.

A correction or sideways movement could be witnessed in the immediate near term.


INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

The upper trend line take from the highs has been tested but has not been able to cross and sustain above it.

Negative divergence on RSI is being witnessed for a long time but price cracking down the support has not been witnessed significantly. Recovery has been witnessed in the price to come back to the recent highs generally.

The immediate objective can be to exit long position on rise from current price of 18.44$ to 18.93$.

Support will be at 18$.

A fall and close below 18$ can take the prices down towards 17.64$-17$


NYMEX CRUDE :: Support level is around 70$ which the 23.6% retracement level of the rise from 35.65$ to 82$.

A further rally can come into existence only on breakout and close above 82$. Till then expect sideways movement in the wider band now of 82$-70$. Overall objective will be to exit long positions on rise from current price of 76$-82$ to exit long.


NYMEX NATURAL GAS :: Only a breakout and close above 5.32$ a break the shackle of sideways movement and consolidation.

Traders can Book profit if holding long positions at current price of 5.19$ to 5.32$ as the opportunity arises.

Re-enter long on rise and close above 5.32$.

Support will be at 4.76$-4.61$


GOLD (spot): 1178.5

A swift flash towards 1136 last Friday, almost invalidated the strong support at 1146, but on second look, it becomes clearer that buying re emerged after prices swiftly pulled back and stayed above 1146. To this extent, the momentary fall below 1146 could be ignored, and suggests that buying interest is alive. Prices have now swung higher, but 1181 looks challenging.



Strategies: (Long)

Longs above 1181

Longs at 1168

Strategies: (Shorts)

Sell at 1180/81

Sell below 1146

Broad Trend: A direct rise above 1180 could call for 1227