EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD AND MCX GOLD WITH LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD AND NATURAL GAS AS ON 4 TH OF SEPT

MCX Gold Oct: Supports are at 15540 followed by 15410. Supports could hold for a test of 15992 or even higher. Fall below 15400 to see prices correct towards supports at 15280-15250. S1: 15668 S2: 15566 R1:15806 R2: 15892




MCX Silver December: Supports are seen at 25002/24775. While above these levels prices could stay firm. A break above 26325 could see a move higher towards 26940/27261. Fall below 24770 could see prices correct further towards 24518/24422. S1: 25680 S2: 25240 R1: 26250 R2: 26740



MCX Copper Nov: A breach of 315 could see a move higher towards 323. Supports are at 306 / 301.50. Fall below 300.50 to see prices edge lower again.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318



MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3316 followed by 3280. Ideally, a pullback towards 3423 or even higher towards 3455 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3420



MCX Zinc sept: Dips to 90.20 / 89.65 could find support for a move higher towards 93.00. Fall below 89.15 to set in a bearish tone. S1: 90.70 S2: 89.65 R1: 92.40 R2: 93.20



MCX Lead Sept: Resistance is now seen at 114 followed by 116 levels. Dips to 108 / 106 could find support. Direct fall below 105.80 could see prices correct further towards 103 or even 100 levels. S1:110.20 S2: 108 R1:113.15 R2:114.30



MCX Nickel Sept: As long as support at 870/868 hold prices could rise in correction towards 920 or even 938. A fall below 868 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:882 S2:868 R1:910 R2:938



MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - A fall below 514 could see prices weaken towards 508 levels. Resistance is at 525/ 529 levels. A breach of 529 would be required to see prices rally further. S1:- 514 S2:- 509 R1:- 524 R2:- 530.80



TRADING STRATEGY ::



SILVER MCX DECEMBER :: Corrective dip to 25774-25298 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 24934. Expect higher range of 26614-27090 to be tested.
The monthly chart below shows that the peak range of 27230-27500 will be tested.
The daily chart shows the 2 point 1.618 upside retracement level target is 27122. A breakout seen a few days back with huge volumes and further follow also witnessed which had resulted into a rise to current levels.
Higher levels should be used to take profit if holding long positions



GOLD MCX OCTOBER :: Expect a rise to test daily upper level of 15900-16022 range.

Corrective dip to 15680-15555 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15464. The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.

The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.

Gold on the continuous chart shows that the peak of 16036 is now round the corner with 250 odd points away.
The next major resistance will be at 16036.
On the daily chart of October contract, the resistance will be at 15929 and the peak in October’09 contract is 16200. Expect profits booking at higher range of 15929-16200 range.




NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::



We have seen important trend line getting violated in the current month in 3 trading days.

The high in the current month is at 3.017$.

As a result of the breakout, Natural Gas is expect to move in the purple box shown in the chart which has the price range of 1.86$-1.59$.

The close as on 3/09/09 is 2.50800$.

Medium term short stop loss remains at 3.017$

The 100% projection as shown by orange color line is placed at 1.96$. Therefore, on the whole further decline is still likely with volatility.

Unless 3.017$ is not crossed fall will not be arrested till 1.96$ at least

VIEWS FOR 3RD SEPTEMBER ::: MCX AND COMEX VIEW WITH TRADING STRATERGY WITH LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD

MCX Gold Oct: Supports are at 15425 followed by 15346. Supports to hold for a test of 15758 or even higher. S1: 15458 S2: 15374 R1:15546 R2: 15602

MCX Silver December: Strong support is seen at 24628/24660 now. Dips to 24742 support for a test 25228 or even higher towards 25650. S1: 24210 S2: 23972 R1: 24540 R2: 24720

: MCX Copper Nov: Supports are at 298-299. Favoured view expects a pullback towards 308.75/311 levelswhile above 296.S1: 301 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 313

MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3320 followed by 3298. Ideally, a pullback towards 3436 or even higher towards 3470 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3374 R2:3420

MCX Zinc sept: A rise above 89.75 could see a pullback to 90.60 / 91 levels. A fall below 87.50 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1: 88.20 S2: 87.10 R1: 89.65 R2: 90.60

MCX Lead Sept: While above 101.50 prices could attempt to test resistance at 104.30 again. Fall below 101.40 to see prices edging lower. S1:102.20 S2: 101.40 R1:103.40 R2:104.30

MCX Nickel Sept: A rise above 900 could see a pullback to 920 / 930 levels. A fall below 872 would lessen a chanceof a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:871 S2:854 R1:900 R2:922

MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 150 prices could stay under pressure. Prices are still oversold but a breach of 150 levels would be required to spark a corrective rally towards 166 levels. Supports are at 132/130 levels now.S1:132 S2:128.30 R1:140 R2:144.80

Comex Gold Dec: Supports are at 972 followed by 967. Supports to hold for a test of 993 or even higher. aadianant4u: Comex Silver Dec: Strong support is seen at 15.18/20 now. Dips to 15.25 support for a test 15.55 or even higher towards 15.81.

Nymex Crude Oct: Supports are at 67.65 followed by 67.05. Ideally, a pullback towards 69.85 or even highertowards 70.55 looks likely as long as supports hold.

Comex Copper Dec: Supports are at 275-76. Favored view expects a pullback towards 285/87 levels while above 273

mcx trading startegy:-Corrective dip to 15415-15284 range can be used for buying.
The price movement yesterday was large therefore we could see intra-day dip to support level of 15415 or below.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 15415 and if it rises above 15415 then buy with low below 15415 as the stop loss at the point of recovery.
Expect higher range of 15650-15781 to be tested

mcx silver trading startergy;-Corrective dip to 24785-24469 can be used for buying with stop loss of 24300.
In order to reduce the risk, traders can wait for a fall below 24785 and rises above 24785 then buy with low below 24785 as the stop loss.
Expect higher range of 25269-25586 to be tested

LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD;-(VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN

VIEWS FOR 02ND SEPTEMBER 2009

MCX Gold Oct: Resistances are at 15210-15250 levels now. These levels expected to cap for a decline towards 15002 or even lower. Unexpected rise above 15288 to dent our bearish view. S1: 15156 S2: 15075 R1:15246 R2: 1530

MCX Silver December: Looks quite good for a test of 24560/24720 levels while above 23595. Initial resistance is at 24475. Supports are at 23972 followed by 23792. S1: 24210 S2: 23972 R1: 24540 R2: 24720

MCX Copper Nov: Pullback to 306.50/307.50 could find resistance for a fall towards recent lows or even lower. S1: 301 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 313

MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance at 3417 followed by 3461. Ideally resistances to cap for a decline towards 3306-3290 or even lower. S1:3352 S2:3306 R1:3410 R2:3450

MCX Zinc sept: A fall below 89.00 could see a test of supports at 88.30 or lower. On the upside rallies could be capped at resistance levels of 90.60. S1: 89.00 S2: 88.30 R1: 90.25 R2: 91.10

MCX Lead Sept: A fall below 101.00 could see a test of supports at 99.60 or lower. On the upside rallies could be capped at resistance levels of 102.40/103.35. S1:101 S2: 99.60 R1:102.40 R2:103.50

MCX Nickel Sept: Rallies to 905/915 could find resistance for a move lower towards 870 levels again. More important resistance levels are at 930/940 a breach of which would cause doubts about the bearish view. S1:871 S2:854 R1:903 R2:922

MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 150 / 153 prices could stay under pressure. Prices are still oversold but a breach of 154 levels would be required to spark a corrective rally towards 165/170 levels. S1:140 S2:136.20 R1:145 R2:150.80

GOLD (spot): Last 954Bargain hunting was visible yesterday, and it seems, Gold’s inversecorrelation with equities, is now strengthening after being patchy forsometime. However, we remain cautious about being bullish until atleast 960gives away. A direct rise above 957 would be the first indication that such amove is in motion.Alternate Scenario:Inability to move past 957 is likely to trigger a swing back in to the trajectoryto 930 levels.Strategies: Buy above 957, TGT 970, Sell below 944, TGT932

Nymex Crude(Oct): Last 68.5Though yesterday’s fall was steep, a steep and unexpecteddecline in API crude stocks (released early morning)delays an impending fall in prices. The structure nowfavours a brief push towards 69 for a turn lower andsteeper. Voluminous break above 69 would dilute theintraday bearish momentum, but is likely to turn loweragain if 70 resists

Comex Copper (Dec): Last 2.7850Trend is now turning decidedly bearish, targetting 2.72initially, but a feeble swing back towards 2.80 cannot beruled out, which is an ideal selling level again. However,only a push above 2.82-2.84 would negate the bearishmomentum

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY;-

Corrective dip to 15163-15108 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15080. Expect higher range of 15258-15313 range to be tested.

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY;-

Corrective dip to 24358-24120 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23986. Expect higher range of 24730-24968 to be tested.
The peak of 24884 could be tested.
Immediate resistance and lower top of 24375 has been crossed.

MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 31.08.2009

WEEKLY VIEWS ::

MCX Gold Oct: Supports at 15065-15035 to hold for a test of 15380-15430 levels in the coming sessions.Fall below 14968 to dent our bullish expectations S1: 15065 S2: 14980 R1:15189 R2: 15246.


MCX Silver September: Supports at 23436 followed by 23230 to hold for a test of 24240-24400.Fall below 22875 could cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 23650 S2: 23230 R1: 23890 R2: 24240


MCX Copper Aug : Crucial support at 304/303 levels now. Fall below 303 to test 299 being a trend line support point.Unexpected break of 299 could lead prices towards 278.S1: 307 S2: 301.80 R1: 312.50 R2: 318


MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3568 and 3602. Expect resistance to cap for a decline towards initial support at 3484.Subsequently a deeper fall towards 3368 or even lower is expected. S1:3504 S2:3452 R1:3568 R2:3608


MCX Zinc sept: Support is at 90.30/90.10. A fall below 90.00 could see a test of supports at 89.20 or 88.30.A break of 88.30 would set in a bearish bias and see further weakness. Resistance is at 92.00 levels now.
S1: 90.10 S2: 89.25 R1: 91.65 R2: 92.40


MCX Lead Sept: While below 104 prices could edge lower to test supports at 100.50 or even 99.50.Fall below 99.30 would set in a bearish bias and se a move lower towards 97.60. S1:102 S2: 100.50 R1:103.80 R2:105


MCX Nickel Sept: Support is at 920 levels now. A breach of the same would see prices move lower towards 900 / 895. Resistance at 958 / 965 and a breach of the same could see prices rising again. S1:930 S2:905 R1:955 R2:979


MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 153 / 156 prices could stay under pressure. However oversold conditions still hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. A breach of 158 levels now could spark such a rally towards 166/170 levels.
S1:147 S2:142.50 R1:152.70 R2:157.7

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-
Book profits on long positions on rise to 15$-15.16$ and re-enter long on close above 15.16$.
Corrective dip to 14.47$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14.25$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD;-Resistance will be at 961$-972$.
Support will be at 948$.
Sell on fall below 948$ or sell on rise to 966$ with a stop loss of 972$.

NUMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-Exit long positions on rise to 73.5-75$ and re-enter long on rise and close above 75$. Corrective dip to 72.49$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 69.8$.

COMEX COPPER:-
Comex Copper (Dec):
A penetration of previous peak on Friday, has been largely rendered impotent, owing to a disappointing close lower, followed up by a feeble test today of Friday’s peak and a 3% fall lower. Following a massive long liquidation in the morning an upswing is presently underway. 2.84 on
the lower side has held thus far and an outside chance of such pull backs turning into rallies lies in the ability to push above 2.94 early. A fall below 2.84 is likely to trigger massive falls targetting 2.70

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-
Expect higher range of 15183-15193 to be tested.
Corrective dip to 15048 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15022

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY:-
Corrective dip to 23856-23654 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23480.
Book profits on long positions on rise to 24231-24375 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on close above 24375

WEEKLY AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON COMEX AND NYMEX FUTURES AS ON 31 AUG

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 959.9 resistance on Friday clears out the outlook a bit an indicates that rise from 931.3 is possibly resuming whole rally from 904.8. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test of 974.5/992.1 resistance zone first. Nevertheless, strong resistance could be seen there and bring another falling leg of the sideway consolidation that started at 1007.7. On the downside, below 942.4 support will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 931.3 will indicate that another fall is indeed underway for 904.8 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. While there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3/992.1 resistance zone will be the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rebound from 13.495 extended further to as high as 14.86 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 15.185 to 13.495 at 14.54 dampened the view that Silver has topped out at 15.185 and in turn indicates that rise from 12.435 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for a test of 15.185 resistance first and break will target the current medium term top at 16.25 next. On the downside, below 14.475 will bring consolidation but another would still be in favor as long as 14.04 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the outlook in Silver is rather mixed for the moment with main question on whether it's topped out at 16.25 already. We're still slightly favoring the case that silver's medium term rebound from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 after touching 16.08 key support turned resistance, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. It's also possible that silver is forming a head and shoulder top pattern too (ls: 14.635, h: 16.25, rs: 15.185?). However, a break of 13.495 near term support is at least needed first to give us more confidence on this case while break of 12.435 support will be the confirmation. However, a break above 15.185 resistance will in turn shift favors back to the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for another taken on 16.08/19.55 medium term resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption. In case of another rise above 16.25, there will still be no change in the long term neutral view and upside is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone to bring at least another medium term fall to continue to long term consolidation patter between 8.4 and 21.44

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After edging higher to 75.0, crude oil retreated sharply to as low as 69.83 last week but managed to recover from there and close above 70 level at 72.86. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. As noted before, with near term trend line support (now at 68.00) intact, rise from 58.32 is likely still in progress. Above 75.0 will bring rally resumption to long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) first. On the downside below 69.83 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that rise from 58.32 has indeed finished ahead of 76.77 fibo resistance and will turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
There is no change in the overall bearish view in Natural gas. While some consolidation might be seen in near term, upside recovery is expected to be limited by 3.25/60 fibonacci resistance zone, (38.2% and 50% retracement of 4.162 to 2.692). Current decline, which is part of the whole down trend from 13.69, is expected to resume sooner or later to next long term projection target at 2.50 after completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, decisive break of 3.60 will be an important signal that natural gas has bottomed out and will turn focus to 4.16 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 13.69 resumed after completing triangle consolidation from 3.155. Such decline is treated as the third leg of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Hence further fall should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50 and possibly below. Nevertheless, we're expect strong support between 1.96 (02 low) and the 2.5 projection target to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69. On the upside, break of 4.162 resistance will now be an important signal that natural gas has finally bottomed out