WEEKLY AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON COMEX AND NYMEX FUTURES AS ON 31 AUG

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 959.9 resistance on Friday clears out the outlook a bit an indicates that rise from 931.3 is possibly resuming whole rally from 904.8. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test of 974.5/992.1 resistance zone first. Nevertheless, strong resistance could be seen there and bring another falling leg of the sideway consolidation that started at 1007.7. On the downside, below 942.4 support will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 931.3 will indicate that another fall is indeed underway for 904.8 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. While there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3/992.1 resistance zone will be the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rebound from 13.495 extended further to as high as 14.86 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 15.185 to 13.495 at 14.54 dampened the view that Silver has topped out at 15.185 and in turn indicates that rise from 12.435 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for a test of 15.185 resistance first and break will target the current medium term top at 16.25 next. On the downside, below 14.475 will bring consolidation but another would still be in favor as long as 14.04 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the outlook in Silver is rather mixed for the moment with main question on whether it's topped out at 16.25 already. We're still slightly favoring the case that silver's medium term rebound from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 after touching 16.08 key support turned resistance, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. It's also possible that silver is forming a head and shoulder top pattern too (ls: 14.635, h: 16.25, rs: 15.185?). However, a break of 13.495 near term support is at least needed first to give us more confidence on this case while break of 12.435 support will be the confirmation. However, a break above 15.185 resistance will in turn shift favors back to the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for another taken on 16.08/19.55 medium term resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption. In case of another rise above 16.25, there will still be no change in the long term neutral view and upside is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone to bring at least another medium term fall to continue to long term consolidation patter between 8.4 and 21.44

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After edging higher to 75.0, crude oil retreated sharply to as low as 69.83 last week but managed to recover from there and close above 70 level at 72.86. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. As noted before, with near term trend line support (now at 68.00) intact, rise from 58.32 is likely still in progress. Above 75.0 will bring rally resumption to long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) first. On the downside below 69.83 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that rise from 58.32 has indeed finished ahead of 76.77 fibo resistance and will turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
There is no change in the overall bearish view in Natural gas. While some consolidation might be seen in near term, upside recovery is expected to be limited by 3.25/60 fibonacci resistance zone, (38.2% and 50% retracement of 4.162 to 2.692). Current decline, which is part of the whole down trend from 13.69, is expected to resume sooner or later to next long term projection target at 2.50 after completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, decisive break of 3.60 will be an important signal that natural gas has bottomed out and will turn focus to 4.16 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 13.69 resumed after completing triangle consolidation from 3.155. Such decline is treated as the third leg of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Hence further fall should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50 and possibly below. Nevertheless, we're expect strong support between 1.96 (02 low) and the 2.5 projection target to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69. On the upside, break of 4.162 resistance will now be an important signal that natural gas has finally bottomed out