TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON LME NICKLE FOR THE YEAR 2010:-
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones
MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010
MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-
We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.
MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-
Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)
2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.
2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-
We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.
NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-
We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.
The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side
MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)
LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again
MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-
Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.
(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).
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