Comex Gold (GC):-
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.

Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption

Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27

Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212