VIEWS OF COMEX GOLD SILVER AND CRUDE 8/3/09

OUTLOOK ON COMEX GOLD FUTURES:Comex Gold (GC) :-
Gold's correction from 1007.7 was contained at 900.40, above 892 support as expected and rebounded strongly. An intraday low should be in place and initial outlook will remain neutral for this week. Break of 936.10 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1007.7 resistance first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1033.9 high next. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'd still expect downside to be contained by mentioned 892 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.

OUTLOOK ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver recovered strongly after correction from 14.6 extended to 12.45 last week. Break of 13.33 minor resistance suggests that such correction has completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 14.6 high. Break of confirm rally resumption towards next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, below 12.45 will indicate that mentioned correction is still in progress. But after all, we'd still expected downside to be contained by 11.77 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.88 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's choppy recovery from 33.55 extended further to as high as 46.30 last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Such rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only. Hence, while further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 50.47 and bring medium term down trend resumption. On the downside, below 39.44 minor support will suggest that rise from 33.55 has finally completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower. . However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
In the longer term picture, steep decline from 147.27 is treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal for the moment.

NATURAL GAS NEAR TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural Ga's recovery from 3.916 was limited at 4.380 last week and weakened sharply afterwards and is now back pressing 3.916 low. Such development argues that recent decline might be ready to resume this week. Initial bias will be on the downside and break of 3.916 will confirm fall resumption to next target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67.
On the upside, however, above 4.145 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and argue that consolidation from 3.916 is going to extend further before completion. In such case, another recovery could be seen to 4.38 resistance or above. Nevertheless, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.845, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.