VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 8TH FEBRUARY 2010

VIEWS  FOR  THE  WEEK  STARTING  FROM  8TH  FEBRUARY 2010

---

MCX Gold April: Price could rise in correction towards 16627/16688 area before next decline towards 15868 chances of an extension to 16871/16843 also looks likely.

S1: 16206 S2: 16126 R1: 16366 R2: 16446. 

 

---

MCX Silver March: Supports at 23750/24070 to hold for a test of 24340-24520 or even higher before the next decline towards 23158 or ideally 22585/21927. Rise above 25300 could neutralise our bearish expectations S1: 24020 S2: 23730 R1: 24454 R2: 24585

 

---

MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 300/297 to hold for a pullback towards 317/319 levels now.

Fall below 296.85 could dent our bullish expectaions. S1: 296 S2: 292 R1: 304 R2: 308

 

---

MCX Crude Oil December: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3232 or even 3160. Resistance levels are spread between 3466 / 3510. It has to rise past  3567 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3334 S2: 3425 R1: 3545 R2: 3585.

 

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Could find resistance at 816/819 levels now. A break of 800 can create panic selling pressure towards 780 levels. This is our favored view. While below 816 target 804 and 784. Unexpected break of 826 can change this bearish expectations.

S1:804 S2:786 R1: 816 R2: 826

 

---

MCX Lead Feb: Ideally resisitance at 93.75 could drag prices again to 90.50 or even to 85 levels now. While below 94.10 target 92/91.Break above 96 can change this bearish picture. S1: 92 S2: 90.70 R1: 94.10 R2: 96.10.

 

---

MCX Zinc Feb: while trading below 95.60 levels sell for a target of 92. Break of 96 can negate this bearish view. S1: 92.10 S2: 91.50 R1: 95.90 R2: 97.30.

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::

 

A minor pullback to 1075$-1084$ can be used.
For the time being traders can cover short positions at 1059$-1043$.

Sell again on fall below 1043$ with high of the day stop loss

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

 Cover short positions at current level or below.
Sell further on fall below 14.6$.

Resistance will be at 15.4$.

A minor pullback is possible for immediate near term if the low of 14.6$ is not violated.

Expect higher range of 15.47$-15.8$ to be tested.

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::

 

A range bound movement in the band of 6.10$-5$ continues.
Expect trading up move on rise and close above 5.6$.

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::

 

Cover short positions if any from current level to 68$ as the opportunity arises or hold short with a stop loss of 74$.
Resistance will be at 72.5$-74$. Support will be at 68$.

 

LEAD  LME  ::

 

The retracement of 1977$ has been tested last week.
Support will be at 1915$.

On further fall below 1915$, expect a slide towards 1760$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 1549$.

Resistance will be at 2175$-2265$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 24555 and cover the same at current price and on dip to 24222-24103.
Sell further on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss.

Expect higher range of 24443-24561 to be tested.

ADX is moving higher a shown in the chart therefore the downside momentum could still be in place.

 

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL  :: 

 

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 16244-16172 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below 15963 with high of the day stop loss.

A positive divergence on 14 day RSI is being witnessed now therefore if the low of 15963 is not violated from here on then we could see a near term pullback rise at least.

Sell further on fall and close below 15963 with high of the day stop loss. Higher range of 16357-16429 could be tested.

 

USD INR  :: 

 

A breakout has been witnessed. In our expect updates, our expectation was towards near term weaker rupee and the same has been witnessed.
Resistance will be at 46.9-47.10$.

A further breakout and close above 47.10$ can bring about a rally for Dollar.

Support for Dollar will be at 46-45.9.

Broadly a wider range of 47.10-45 and if a breakout is witnessed further in near term then significant weakness could be seen in Rupee. Expect resistance and profit booking on Dollar at 47.