VIEWS FOR 3RD JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Near-term supports are at 14400 followed by crucial support at 14337 now. As long
as these supports holds, bullishness towards 14882 However, direct fall below 14337 to result in a sharp
fall below 14197-14229 levels.S1: 14370 S2: 14280 R1: 14550 R2: 14650

MCX Silver September: Fall below 21875 resulted in a sharp fall towards 21454 levels. Immediate resistance
is at 21875 now. Further fall from here looks unlikely. Only a break above 22245 to signal resumption of
bullishness.S1: 21530 S2: 21360 R1: 21780 R2: 21950

MCX Copper August: Important supports are at 241 followed by 238 now. Favored view expects supports
to hold for a rally towards 254/256 levels.However, unexpected fall below 236.8 to result in a sharp fall
towards 225/227 levels.S1: 242 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252

MCX Crude Oil July : Near-term support is at 3206 levels. Failure to hold support here to result in a further
decline towards 3075 levels.Resistances are at 3273 followed by 3305 now.
S1: 3200 S2: 3168 R1: 3275 R2: 3308

MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.00/74.85 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below
74.20 to negate this bullish view. S1: 74.5 S2: 73.40 R1: 76.4 R2: 77.5

MCX Lead July : Dips to 81.00/80.85 to find support for a move higher towards 84.30 levels now. Fall
below 79.70 to negate this bullish view. S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.60 R2: 83.60

MCX Nickel July:Dip to 780/775 to find support for move higher toward 820 level now. Fall below 764 to
negate bullish view. S1:776 S2:759 R1: 804 R2: 819

MCX Natural Gas July:Dip to 175/173 to offer support now for rally toward 185 level. Fall below 173 to
negate bullish view. S1: 177 S2: 174 R1: 184 R2: 188

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend is once again held well yesterday.
Support of 14407 also not violated.
The price movement are getting narrower and moving within the converging lines.
Sell on fall below 14400 with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss of 14581.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Sell on fall below 21480 with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.
Intra-day traders wait for rise above 21708 or 21937 and when it falls below 21708 or 21937 then sell with high above 21708 or 21937 as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :;

A sideways movement in a band of 950$-920$ is being witnessed with volatility.
Overall objective can be to exit long and sell on rise with a stop loss of 950$.
Support will be at 920$ and 910$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A breakdown below 13.59$ and 13.46$ has been witnessed.
The blue color trend line has not been crossed.
Expect the 75% and 87.5% retracement level of 13.10$ and 12.57$ to be tested.
Resistance will be at 13.46$-13.59$-13.86$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

The pink color trend line has been tested and closed just below it.
Support of 66$ has been tested and it closed around it at 66.73$.
Next support is at 64.95$.
In last couple of days, Crude tested the peak of 73.4$ and the red color trend line as shown in the chart. The same trend line was violated earlier and closed lower the same day. Further it held steady for next day to finally crack yesterday to test the support of 66$.
Support is at 66$-64.95$.
A fall below the support can show a correction in Crude down.
Intra-day bounce could be seen before cracking down further.
Resistance will be at 68$-70$.
Traders who are short by chance can maintain a stop loss of 70$.

DOLLAR INDEX ::

The Dollar index based on the available data show the fall has been a corrective pattern of A-B-C which can be converted into W-X-Y pattern with Wave W complete.
The current rise can be for Wave X.
Wave X will be a corrective structure with 3 wave pattern which can get carried up towards the 102 from current level of 80.50.
The above indicated Wave structure is valid till the low of 71 is not violated.
Alternative count structure can be more bullish that what was indicated above. Corrective wave structure gets complete at 71 with A-B-C structure and new up move and impulse has already began. Minor degree Wave 1 is complete and Wave 2 is in progress.
Dollar index moved down from 121.29 (2001) to 71(2008). In the same period of the world equity indices have shown a rise had made new highs during the same period broadly.
In the same period Crude Oil also showed a rally which had directly correlation to the equity markets.
In the same way HG COPPER on Comex showed a rally in the same period from 60$ to 426$. Only difference is that made a top six month later. Similar tendency has been seen in other metals.
Conclusion
On the whole, we can see direct correlation between the financial and commodity market against the dollar index.