MCX Silver September : Important support is at 22109 now. Break below this level can take prices further lower . However, favored view expects this support to hold for a rally higher towards 23104 and then 23617 subsequently. S1: 22300 S2: 22100 R1: 22850 R2: 23200
MCX Crude Oil July : Fall below 3363 has opened the downside for 3135 levels now. Rallies to 3397 can besold for targets at 3128 stop 3485.S1: 3300 S2: 3265 R1: 3400 R2: 3445
MCX Copper June: Fall below 241.50 could increase the chances of a fall towards 236/237 levels. However,a direct rise above 247/248 to take prices higher towards 254/255 levels. S1: 241 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252
MCX Zinc June: Dips to 74.60/74.30 to find support for a move higher towards 77.1 levels . Fall below 73.50to raise doubts about this view. S1: 74.30 S2: 72.10 R1: 76.30 R2: 77.45
MCX Lead June : Dips to 80.30/80.00 to find support for a move higher towards 82.75 levels . Fall below78.45 to raise doubts about this view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.70 R2: 84.60
MCX NickelJune : Dip to 739/735 to find support for move higher toward 775 level. Fall below 719 to raise doubt about this view. S1:745 S2:720 R1: 765 R2: 778
MCX NaturalGas July : ip to 194/192 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negatebullish view. S1: 194 S2: 190 R1: 199 R2: 203
TRADING STARTEGY ::
GOLD MCX AUGUST ::
The trend line breakout attempts failed again as the close still could not be above the pink color falling trend line. Traders still holding long positions can look for rise to 14682-14752-14823 to take profit and exit long positions. Re-enter long if the close is above 14823 with a positive candle.
Immediate support will be at 14612.
A fall and close below 14612 can take the price down towards 14581-14511 range.
SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::
Resistance will be at 22885 and 22977.
The volumes registered on Friday was high and the candle movement was an inverted hammer which suggest that until the high of 22885 is not cross on the closing basis, further upside movement and momentum is unlikely to continue.
On the immediate front, traders who are by chance long on Silver can look for rise to 22818-22974 to exit and take profit. Re-enter long on further rise and close above 22977.
Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 22641.
On fall below 22641, support of 22574-22486 can be tested.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
Our expectation was that the red color trend line to be tested.
The same was witnessed on Friday. We saw the red color trend line getting test from a high of 948.2$ and reacted down to close at 938.55$.
Further up move can be witnessed only on breakout and close above 950$.
A minor correction to sideways movement is possible.
The minor correction can be of the rise from 912.90$(recent low in last 1 month) and the high of last week which is 948.2$.
The 50% and 61.8% retracement level are placed at 929$ and 913$ respectively
Broadly a sideways movement is the band of 950$-910$ is likely in near term.
Only a breakout and close above 950$ with a strong positive candle can restore the hope of the peak of 989$ to be tested.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
Expectation was that a rise towards blue color trend line would be witnessed.
The rise was witnessed as per our expectation. Silver tested the blue color trend line and reacted down to close lower.
The high registered on Friday was 14.32$ and closed at 14.07$.
Resistance will be at 14.32$-14.39$.
A breakout and close above 14.40$ can bring about a pullback rally.
Support will be at 13.89$-13.59$.
OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE ::
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell to as low as 913.2 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and rebounded. Break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We now turn cautiously bullish in gold in near term and expect further rise towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
SILVER WEEKLY OUTLOOK;-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver fell further to as low as 13.595 but hold above 61.8% retracement of 11.725 to 16.25 at 13.454 and recovered. Nevertheless, the strength of the recovery was rather unconvincing as it's limited below 14.425 minor resistance. Silver is at a junction but with 14.425 resistance intact, risk is on the downside. Another break of 13.595 will put key medium term trend line support (now at 13.00) into focus. On the upside, though, considering bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 14.425 resistance will indicate that correction from 16.25 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD serves as an important alert that whole rise from 8.4 has completed with three waves up to 16.25 already. Break of the trend line support (now at 13.00) will add much credence to this case. Further break of 11.725 will confirm and bring retest of 8.4 low. However, note that strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 14.425 resistance will save the bullish case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress. Another high above 16.25 should at least be seen before topping.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as correction, or part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.01 and was supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.01 to 21.44 at 8.123. Recent development starts to argue that rebound from 8.4 is in form of a three wave corrective structure while in turn suggest that whole correction from 21.44 is not completed yet. But after all, we'd continue to favor the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for a retest of 21.44 high as long as Silver stays above the trend line from 8.4
NYMEX WEEKLY CRUDE OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.
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