EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD SILVER CRUDE FOR THE WEEK AND NEAR TERM OUTLOOK FROM NITESH JAIN

Comex Gold (GC):-


Gold's fall from 1227.5 extended further to as low as 1110.2 last week and the break of 1130.1 support, as well as the sustained trading below the near term channel, indicates that rise from 931.3 has likely made a top already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 1148.4 resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1079.4 next. On the upside, above 1148.4 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1227.5 and bring another fall to continue the correction.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.


Comex Silver (SI):-


Silver's fall from 19.50 extended further to as low as 16.90 last week. The break of 17.70 support confirms that rise from 16.12 has finished at 19.50 already, just ahead of 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 17.64 minor resistance holds and further fall should be seen to retest 16.12 support next. On the upside above 17.64 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 19.50 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continued to build up last week. The break of 55 days EMA and near term trend line support suggests that rise from 12.435 has completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. This also serve as the first signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too, with weekly MACD back below signal line. Outlook is turned bearish and deeper decline should now be seen to next trend line support at 13.8 level and sustained break there will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low.

Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation



Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-


Crude oil dived further last week and closed below 70 level at 69.87. Break of the medium term trend line support serves as another indication of medium term reversal. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 65.05 support first. On the upside, above 71.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.


Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-


Natural gas rose to as high as 5.375 last week and the break of 5.318 resistance argues that rise from 2.409 is possibly resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally will remain in favor. Sustained trading above 5.318 will pave the way to next short term target at 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, however, a break below 4.837 support will indicate that recent consolidation is still in progress inside and another fall should be seen towards lower side of recent range near to 4.157. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained there and bring an eventual upside breakout.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again