outlook for gold silver crude as on 23-3-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats mildly after hitting as high as 967.80 but after all, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 929.60 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 1007.7 should have completed at 882.7, supported by 38.2% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 882.9. Further rise is now expected to retest 1007.7 first and then 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 929.6 will turn intraday outlook neutral. But recent rally is still expected to resume as long as 882.7 low is intact.
In the bigger picture, while the correction is slightly deeper than expected, the over all outlook doesn't change. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, however, another fall below 882.7 will open up a few short term bearish scenarios that should at least bring deeper for to 801.5 cluster support or below before resuming the long term up trend.
COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :Comex Silver (SI)
Silver retreats mildly after hitting as high as 13.74 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 13.00 minor support holds. Break of 13.285 resistance confirms that corrective fall from 14.6 has completed with three waves down to 11.89 already. Further rally should now be seen to retest 14.6 high first. On the downside, below 13.00 will turn intraday bias neutral. But short term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 11.89 low remains intact.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.83 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude edges further higher to 52.34 today and remains firm. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 46.92 and further rally is still expected. As discussed before, sustained trading above 50.47 key resistance will pave the way for strong rally towards next key level of 60, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 60.34. On the downside, though, below 46.92 will indicate that rise from 33.55 has completed and will turn intraday outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the break of 50.47 resistance serves as an important signal that crude oil has finally bottomed out in medium term, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after drawing support from 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone. Sustained trading above 50.47 will confirm this case and open up the prospect of stronger rally towards next key level at 90.51 (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 90.38).

NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
The strong rebound in Natural Gas and touching of 4.38 resistance is taken as the first sign that it has bottomed out at 3.672, slightly above mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Sustained trading above 4.38 will turn short term outlook bullish for 4.88 resistance next. On the downside, while some pull back might be seen, short term outlook will now be neutral at worst as long as 3.672 low holds.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned above, touching of 4.38 resistance is taken as the first signal that decline from 13.69 has bottomed out at 3.672. Bullish convergence condition in daily MACD is supporting this case too. Further break of 4.88 resistance will confirm this case and bring medium term rebound to cluster resistance at 7.36 (38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.67 at 7.499.