VIEWS FOR 17th FEBRUARY 2009

MCX Gold April: As expected the 14497-14543 zone seems to have held well. A rally to 15088 or 15182 looks likely. Supports are at 14636 followed by 14574. S1: 14580 S2: 14450 R1: 14797 R2: 15100

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 21317 followed by 21238. Ideally supports to hold for a rally towards 22060. Fall below 21000/21032 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 21300 S2: 21176 R1: 21480 R2: 21630

MCX Copper February: As expected break below 160.2 is a bearish sign. Prices could edge lower towards 147/148 levels now. Rallies to 163.4/164.5 to cap for a decline towards above-mentioned levels. S1: 160 S2: 157 R1: 165 R2: 169

MCX Crude Oil March(corrected) : Favoured view expects that resistance at 2110/2154 could cap for a fall towards 1962. Rise above 2165 is needed to think about a stronger recovery.S1: 2017 S2: 1841 R1: 2082 R2: 2133

MCX Zinc Feb: - Rallies to level 55.1 is expected where it may find resistance. Support is seen at 54.3 level which breached can take prices to 53.9. S1: 54.3 S2: 53.7 R1: 55.25 R2: 55.7

MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 56.15-55.65 on the downside. However a break above 56.71 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 57.40 levels. S1: 55.34 S2: 54.50 R1: 56.71 R2: 57.40

MCX Nickel Feb: Free fall of Nickel may get support at 490-500 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 515 for move towards 470 level..S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 515 R2: 530

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices are likely to stay weak and find strong support at 209 levels.Rally beyond 216 may negate this bearish view. S1: 209 S2: 204 R1: 212 R2: 219

MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Price have found strong support at 515. However a rise above 523 could see a move higher towards next resistance at 528 .S1:512 S2:507.50 R1:521 R2:528

TRADING STRATERGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14730.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 and when it rises above Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 then buy with the low below Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14763 – Rs 14820.

MCX SILVER MARCH ::

The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20900.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21575.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 and when it rises above Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 then buy with the low below Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21578 – Rs 21729

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
The trend is up as per the daily chart for last few days. The trading higher bottom is placed at 931$. The earlier breakout point was also at 931$. So, the earlier breakout has offered support in last couple of trading session by forming a lower shadow.
Resistance will be at 952$.
On further rise and close above 952$, Gold can move up to test the trend line taken from the two highs as shown in the chart.
The hourly chart suggest that trading breakout has been witnessed in the early morning trades. Gold is expected to test the high registered in last couple of trading days back of 952$.
In case of further breakout and close above 952$ as per the hourly chart shown below, Gold can move towards 1.27 retracement level of 969$.
Traders holding long positions can a tight stop loss of 939$ as per hourly chart. Overall low of 931$ will prove to be an important support point. Depending on the individual traders risk bearing capacity can maintain 939$ or 931$ as stop loss for any long positions held as of now or created now.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
As we have been indicate a channeled up move for last few days, the same continues to be in existence.
The channel has not yet been violated and price up move continues to be within the channel.
Resistance will be at 13.80$.
Expect continuation of the up move on rise and close above 13.80$.
An attempt to move towards the upper channel line could be made. The momentum right now is a steady accent. A sharp breakout with a spike can take it towards the upper channel line.
Traders holding long positions can maintain overall stop loss of 13.23$. A fall and close below 13.23$ can violate the channel.

On the hourly chart, we can see a breakout which can carry price up towards 14.03$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 14.39.
As per hourly chart, traders can maintain a stop loss of 13.48$ for any trading long positions held.