SILVER FORECAST FOR 2009 " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTANITY"

SILVER FORECAST FOR 2009 " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTANITY"

SUMMARY :- FIRST:-
Prices outperformed Gold on the way up and are doing so on the way down

SECOND:-
ETF investors have continued to accumulate Silver into the weakness, which is a bullish sign

THIRD:-
Fabrication demand is set to weaken in 2009, while mine supply is set to rise, both of which will see the supply surplus increase.

FOURTH:-
There is a big question mark over the dollar; if the financial situation eventually causes further dollar weakness then precious metal prices could soar.

Fabrication Demand
Fabrication demand covers Silver’s use in industry, photography and jewellery manufacturing. So far in 2008, all these sectors have been hit hard. The high prices in H1’08 that saw an average price of $17.42/oz, after an average 2007 price of $13.38/oz, deterred jewellery demand. Photographic demand is in steady decline with demand falling around 10% per year as digital photography has taken market share much faster than originally thought. Industrial output has been the mainstay of Silver demand growth, growing 7% in 2007. Although many applications are price inelastic, when prices were high consumers lived hand to mouth and since the summer’s rapid decline, there seems little pressure on them to restock. Indeed, there was some inventory destocking as the economic outlook deteriorated. Fabrication demand is expected to pull back by around 8% in 2008 and with hard economic times ahead in 2009, demand is likely to suffer again, although lessening industrial destocking should help boost apparent demand and offset ongoing declines from photography. Overall, we expect fabrication demand to be broadly flat in 2009 at 24,500 tonnes.

Industrial Demand
Industrial requirements account for 43% of total Silver demand and are of paramount importance to the Silver market. In recent years, global growth has been expanding at a fast pace, but this has started to slow in 2008 and is likely to slow further in 2009. Consensus forecasts for World economic growth are 3.5% in 2009, after growth of 3.9% in 2008. As such, we should expect Silver’s industrial demand growth to slow from the 7% seen in 2007. That said, industrial applications now account for 54% of fabrication demand, which is up from 38% ten years ago, and with India, China and the US accounting for 70% of this rise in industrial usage, via a wide spread of new applications, demand may be well cushioned
Asia is now more decoupled from the US than it was during the last economic slowdown in 2001 and 2002, and this may mean the impact on Silver is less severe. In 2002, industrial demand had fallen 10% below the figure in 2000, so we would expect less of a slowdown this time round. However, even a 7% slowdown in 2008 would still mean demand would fall by just short of 1,000 tonnes. For 2009, we forecast demand to remain flat at 13,200 tonnes. We expect industrial consumption to ease, but apparent demand to pick up as consumers return to a hand-to-mouth buying after destocking in 2008. Later in 2009, we would not be surprised to see restocking if prices are still below the $12/oz level.

Photographic demand :-
Use of Silver in the photographic industry peaked in 1999 at around 7,000 tonnes; in 2007 it accounted for 3,990 tonnes and in recent years has been falling at around 10% a year. This trend is likely to continue, although it may accelerate again as more hospitals migrate to digital X-ray systems. Indeed even in China where there was a move to utilise the world’s obsolete X-ray facilities, demand for photographic Silver has started to fall at a rate similar to the global rate of decline. Japan was the only large user to see demand increase in 2007 and that was because they consolidated their photographic manufacturing industry in Japan, having retreated from other countries. All in all, photographic demand is likely to continue falling and if the economic slowdown bites hard, then more photographic manufacturers may opt to move out of the industry, thereby further accelerating the demise of Silver’s use in photography. Overall, falling demand from this sector is likely to free up a further 400 tonnes of Silver next year

New applications :-
The main growth area for Silver’s industrial usage has come from the health, electronics and renewable energy industries. In recent years, strong growth has been seen in consumer electronics in the form of plasma TV / display screens and in solder for a host of electronic gadgets. However, another area now seeing rapid growth is that of thermo photovoltaic cells, which convert light into electricity. Smart tags (RFIDs) remain a growth market and with the price per tag reducing as their use rolls out, growth is likely to increase exponentially. Outside the electronics field, Silver’s antibacterial properties are being incorporated in more and more products from medicines, bandages, soaps, clothing, and chemical compounds added to door handles, photocopier buttons, paper, air conditioning units, all of which help the spread of bacteria in the home, office and in public places, such as hospitals, public transport, restaurants etc. Although only minute amounts of Silver are used per item, the mass of applications will see demand for Silver from this area grow. In addition, Silver may also be about to make inroads into the autocatalyst market for diesel-powered industrial machinery. It is estimated that collectively these new applications could account for up to 1,000 tonnes of demand within the next ten years. So although these new high-tech applications may not rescue the market from this economic slowdown, they may provide a significant boost for demand in the years ahead, which may keep investors’ interest high.

Investment demand :-
The combined ETFs have continued to grow in size despite the rapid pull back in the Silver price. The chart opposite shows the combined end of month holdings of the London, US and Zurich ETFs. The fact that redemptions up until now have been light, suggests that long term investors are still buying into Silver’s safe-haven attributes. Indeed, since the start of the year, the ETFs have grown by 2,786 tonnes. This rate of up-take has been much stronger than expected and will have gone a long way into absorbing the supply / demand surplus generated so far in 2008. Considering this, it is surprising that prices have fallen the way they have.
With demand from the photographic industry slowing and with the potential for a slowdown in industrial demand also looming, the investment side of the equation is going to have to absorb the extra Silver supply coming on stream next year. The question is at what price it will do so. This is something that will need to be watched carefully. Indeed, at some stage the very success of the ETFs may become a threat to how far prices can recover, as with some 8,000 tonnes of visible stocks in the ETFs it does represent a third of annual Silver consumption. Obviously, just because the Silver in the ETFs is there does not mean it is for sale (indeed the opposite maybe true), but it does make the market more vulnerable as the more people that hold investment Silver, the greater the chance that some will break ranks and take profits.

The net Fund Silver position started to grow in early December 2007 with the net long position rising rapidly from 28,000 contracts to 54,000 contracts in late February. Profit taking then kept the net long position around the 43,000 mark until late July, when liquidation selling set in with vigour, taking the net fund long position to around 17,000 contracts by the second week in October. In tonnage terms this meant that on the way up the net fund position grew by 4,043 tonnes, but on the way down some 5,755 tonnes were liquidated. This volume of liquidation selling outpaced the level of buying across the ETFs and as such it is not surprising that prices have tumbled. Going forward, the net fund position at 17,000 contracts is still above the 9,300 net long position seen in September 2007 and the 11,650 contracts seen in August 2005. However, in recent years, the net long position has not spent much time below 20,000 contracts and therefore we would not be surprised to see some speculative buying return. Indeed, given that we expect there will be further need for safe-havens in the months ahead and given that the Gold : Silver ratio has fallen to 1:79, we feel there is a strong chance of seeing a rapid rise in THE LONG POSITION

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-
The Silver Chart shows the rapid sell-off from the highs, which is making the market look oversold. The lows from June 2006 at $9.46/oz have been breached as has the higher of the two long term up trend lines at $9.73/oz. Failure to hold here would suggest a pull back to the next up trend line at $8.25/oz. The stochastic indicators are still showing weakness, although they are starting to flatten out in the low zone, which may indicate an easing in selling pressure.
However, given the damage to the chart, bulls are likely to want to see considerable consolidation before regaining any significant level of confidence. Although the recent drops have been fast, rebounds could be equally fast. At some stage, the market is going to have to consolidate and build a base, before the market will be ready to advance on a strong footing.
As such, we would expect range trading between $9/oz and $11.50/oz first and if the market is then seen to have put the liquidation selling behind it, prices are then likely to work at clearing overhead supply up to $14/oz. Indeed, it would take a move above $14/oz for Silver to look long term bullish again.

Conclusion and Forecast FOR 2009:-
The extent and speed of the pull back in the Silver price has been shocking, but this does suggest panic selling and in turn prices are likely to have overshot on the way down. Given Silver’s safe-haven attributes, we expect it to pickup further investment buying interest. Indeed, you only have to look at the strong rise in ETF holdings and the rebound in fund long position to see that investment interest is strong.
Fundamentally, Silver is facing a hard time as supply is set to rise while fabrication demand
Fundamentally, Silver is facing a hard time as supply is set to rise while fabrication demand is bound to suffer as the global economy slows down further in 2009. Although on paper supply is set to grow next year, given the massive sell-off in lead and zinc prices, it would not be surprising to see some mine output cuts which may reduce the supply surplus that is currently forecast. However, a large surplus is on the cards and that will mean investors will have to remain strong buyers throughout 2009 if the surplus is to be absorbed. That said, the selling of late seems to have attracted further investor buying and with prices down below $10/oz, other investors who have been sitting on the sidelines may join in. This is especially likely if the dollar starts to weaken again, which we think will be the case at some stage in the months AHEAD

In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate. They may bounce first and then consolidate but we would be wary of fast rallies as overall the damage to the charts, will keep bulls nervous for some time, until a base is seen to be in place. Overall, though, we feel investors will be looking for a safe-haven and Silver along with other precious metals may be the place money initially heads to once the turbulence in the financial market settles down. Given the poor industrial demand outlook, we are reluctant to paint too bullish a fundamental picture for Silver, but we are bullish for Gold and Silver is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps. Indeed, with the Gold : Silver ratio at 1:79, Silver may once again be seen as a cheap entry point. Overall, we would be surprised to see Silver hold below $9/oz for any length of time and fresh highs would not be out of the question, if there is a seismic shift in confidence away from the dollar. For 2009, we expect the bulk of trading to be within the $9/oz to $18/oz. ~~~ THANKING U ~~~

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FOR 2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY" ---- FOLLOW LINK ::: http://munnabhaianalyst.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-yearly-outlook-on-gold-year-of.html

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2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY"

2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY"
FIRST-
Prices are falling fast as financial institutions cut exposure across all markets
SECOND-
The current turmoil in the financial markets is creating enormous confusion and demand for dollars is rising as investors head for cash, all of which is weighing on Gold
THIRD-
Expect Gold to attract more investment buying once the dust starts to settle as confidence will be rock bottom and investors will want a safe haven
FOURTH-
Hard to imagine given the current performance, but Gold prices could rise to new record highs once the distressed selling has finished and investors realise the dollar may not be the safest place to take shelter

THE BIG PICTURE
The Western banking system is in a crisis and as this plays out, the wider financial system is suffering. Institutions have been hit by the credit crunch and as such they are retrenching and deleveraging in an effort to consolidate and stabilise. However, the result has been a deepening of the credit crunch and that in turn is affecting the wider economy. The ramifications of this are enormous and one can only hope the domino effect has been contained by concerted central bank and government action. There is a high risk, however, that there is more pain to come and if this is the case then the markets could suffer considerably more. Given this uncertainty and the risks the markets still face, it seems highly likely that more Gold will be bought as a safe HAVEN

FACTORS DRIVING GOLD PRICES:-
The dollar – In addition to the factors mentioned in the above section regarding the dollar, other factors are also providing support for the dollar. The deteriorating outlook for European growth has pushed the euro down against the dollar and falling commodity prices have seen commodity currencies fall against the dollar too. In addition, a much weaker oil price means less dollars have to be sold to buy oil. These trends will remain important for the dollar, but if there is a shift in confidence in the underlying value of the dollar, then further dollar weakness is likely.

Central Bank diversification – On average, central banks hold around 10 percent of their foreign exchange reserves in Gold, with the US holding 78%, Germany and Italy around 67%. By contrast, China, Japan, Russia and Taiwan who also have large foreign reserves, hold only minimal amounts of Gold. China holds 0.9% of its reserves in Gold, Japan 2.1%, Russia 2.4% and Taiwan 4%. With a significant proportion of these reserves held in dollars, there must be considerable pressure for these central banks to diversify their dollar holdings. Indeed, the combination of the current financial crisis, a rise in the dollar and a pull back in the Gold price may well provide an attractive incentive to find ways to diversify. Even if these countries do not buy Gold, the likes of China, which is resource hungry, could decide to spend some of their dollar reserves buying other much needed commodities for their strategic reserves, such as copper, iron ore and oil. In turn, if this weakens the dollar then it could underpin Gold too.

Oil – Oil and Gold prices have been positively correlated for most of the bull run. Indeed, the turndown in oil prices in mid-July this year coincided with weaker Gold prices too. At some stage, we would expect the correlation to break down as it would not be surprising to see oil continue to suffer, as the prospects for demand fall and the outlook for global growth slows, whereas Gold’s safe-haven attributes are likely to support it and indeed boost it before too long. However, as oil and energy products tend to make up a big proportion of commodity baskets, the selling of these baskets is another reason why Gold prices are suffering, even though the market might not actually be that bearish on Gold. Going forward, once the rout in oil runs its course and with OPEC likely to attempt to support prices, we would expect the negative impact on Gold to SUBSIDE

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ::
Gold prices have fallen back and breached the up trend line that started in mid-2005 and have decisively broken the 60-week moving average (300 day), which had underpinned the market throughout 2005, 2006 and 2007. Prices have also fallen below the 2006 peak at $730/oz, which puts the lower peaks seen in 2006 and 2007 into focus as possible support areas. These range from $690/oz down to $650/oz. Just below there at $640/oz is the area where the 60-week moving average, the up trend line and the low price from August 2007 all converge, which may also be a natural support area.
While Gold is undoubtedly oversold in terms of some measurements, as important supports and retracement levels have been broken, bulls will wish to see considerable consolidation before regaining any significant level of confidence. However, if consolidation now follows and a base is built, the overall long term up trend could still carry prices higher. However, it would take a move back above the breached up trend line at $770/oz and really the $820/oz resistance level to start making the chart look less vulnerable. On balance, we would now look for consolidation to set in and to be followed by further upside initiatives in the months ahead.


FORECAST & CONCLUSION ::
With Gold setting new record highs and attracting huge investment and speculative inflow, it is not surprising that profit taking set in. However, over the past few years, we have seen times when the broader market goes into risk reduction mode and that carries Gold prices down with it, but for prices to bounce back once the liquidation selling pressure abates. Although this current sell-off could be saying the bull market for Gold is all over, we do not think this is the case. This current weakness is on the back of deleveraging, which is a severe form of risk reduction, but there is little doubt that the underlying fundamentals for Gold have improved in that the very foundations of the Western financial system have been shaken. When the dust starts to settle, investors are unlikely to have much confidence in any assets, but money will need to be invested in something and assets with intrinsic value are likely to shine above paper assets. Likewise, the dollar is rising strongly, but this seems to be for mechanical reasons associated with the dollar being the World’s trading currency (when things are cashed in, it tends to be for dollars and with banks not lending freely, there is a technical shortage of dollars, hence the dollar is in strong demand), but these are not fundamental reasons. Given the dollar is the currency of the current financial system, in time the weakness in the system is likely to be reflected in the value of the dollar. If this happens, then Gold is likely to rise in value as it is seen as the only quasi-currency not linked to any one government or tied into any one financial SYSTEM.
Overall, given the state of affairs, it does look as though there will be no quick fix to the current problems and the situation may well deteriorate further before stability returns. As such, investors’ confidence is likely to be shaken further and once financial institutions have deleveraged and the dollar tightness this is causing eases, then money is likely to flow into safe havens. As such, it seems likely that there is still a big window of opportunity for Gold to shine in the months ahead, but as always, the timing will be very difficult to judge and it will probably be best to sit on the sidelines until the market starts to lead the way. All said and done, we would not be surprised to see Gold prices rise to new highs, possibly significantly new highs, between now and the end of 2009, while we feel any further downside from here is likely to be short-lived and be followed by higher prices. Overall, we would expect the bulk of trading in 2009 to be within the $700/oz to $1,300/oz range.

FOR SILVER FORECAST FOR 2009 " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTANITY ~~~ FOLLOW LINK :: http://munnabhaianalyst.blogspot.com/2008/12/silver-forecast-for-2009-year-of.html

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MCX Gold Feb: As long as 12864 ; 12941 levels support expect price to stay firm for a test of 13295 or even higher towards 13511.A break below 12750 would delay the rise and take the price towards 12479,12417 which are stronger support levels.S1: 13000 S2: 12920 R1: 13170 R2: 13265
MCX Copper February: Prices likely to trade in a range of 137.80,146.65.A break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 138 S2: 134 R1: 145 R2:149
MCX Crude Oil Jan : As long as 1683 is broken on the downside , expect prices to stay firm for a test of 1850 levels.A break below 1675 levels will negate the possibility of this corrective rise.S1: 1755 S2: 1700 R1: 1865 R2:1910
MCX Zinc Dec: - Expect dips to find support at 53.00 , 53.50 range for a move higher towards 57.50 levels .Only a fall below 52.00 to cast doubt on this bullish view.S1: 54.00 S2: 53.10 R1: 56.30 R2: 57.40

TECHNICALS

FOREX EURO TECHNICALS:The pair entered a downside wave and we now see it trading above the 38.2% correction for the ascending channel that started on 4-12-2008 where we expect to see slight inclines today as far as the above mentioned level at 1.3890 remains intact. The current upside movement will be another attempt to retest the ascending channel that the pair had exited during last week's session yet we still believe to witness some volatility during this upside movement. Note that downside corrections are still possible. We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3945 with targets at 1.4020 and perhaps 1.4090 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3890
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3730 and the key resistance at 1.4285
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS;The metal did reach our targets at 830 where we currently see the price undergoing a slight upside channel for some time yet we don't expect to see gold inclining above 866.95 or 884 at most. From here we believe to see upside movements for today to complete the bullish wave before entering a downside wave that could be steeper than the one seen during the previous week.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 784.90 and the key resistance at 884.50
The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Silver was able to trade within an ascending channel with a key support at 10.93. Since trading is above this level, we expect to see further inclines yet the above mentioned support level is weakening as it failed to halt further declines during the previous week. Therefore, any inclines seen today, will most likely be on an intraday basis
The trading range for today is among the key support at 10.34 and the key resistance at 11.72
The general trend is to the downside as far as 14.70 remains intact with targets at 8.05 and 7.60

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude is still targeting 40.05 and perhaps extend to reach 38.50 yet trading is currently above 42.50 which is the previous bottom on 5-12-2008 which could open the way to 44.95 as an initial target. We currently see crude near the key resistance for the short term descending channel at 43.15 which is extending towards 43.50. Slight declines could be seen today yet the opportunity to breach the above mentioned level is still good which will help support crude to reach further upside targets
The trading range for today is among the key support at 35.85 and the key resistance at 46.00
The general trend is to the downside as far as 92.30 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25

INR UPDATE WEEKLY:USDINR (47.11) In the daily chart of Dollar Rupee we can see multiple top around 50.15 accompanied by negative divergence by the RSI indicator. This was followed by a sell off which has dragged prices below the previous bottom. Looking at the Fibo levels we can see that both 23.6% and 38.2% stands violated. Selling is suggested on rally. Outlook: Bias is bearish. Support Levels: 46.00/45.10 Resistance Levels: 48.20/48.50

INTRADAY:USDINR (47.59): Dollar Rupee has stagnated. The downfall momentum seems to have temporary stopped with the pair finding support at around 47.40. Action suggested is to sell towards 48.20 or on sustained move below 47.30. Support: 47.30/47.00/45.30. Resistance: 48.20/48.80-90

TECHNICALS ON GOLD, SILVER

COMEX GOLD :: Rarely do technical indicators fail if it moves consistntly with a trend! This is what we witnessed the past two days when the metal rebounded from the 871- 884 critical levels on the short and medium terms. Today we see further declines as far as 866.95 remains intact without any four hour closing where we expect gold to retreat to 830.80 at the very least.

LONG TERM COMEX GOLD :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.30 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .

COMEX SILVER :: Silver lost all its momentum during yesterday's session and entered a downside channel where it is expected to continue today. On the intrday basis, we see a slight possibility for upside movements but as far as 11.11 remains intact the metal could decline to 10.50.

COMEX SILVER LONG TERM :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 14.70 remains intact with targets at 8.05 and 7.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .

EURO :: Due to the pair failing to close above 1.4620 on the four hour charts, it entered a downside channel that took it back to the 50% correction at 1.4210 - 1.4250 but at the same time price is still within an ascending channel with a key support at 1.4115. Despite us seeing a need for further declines, a rebound from the 1.4210 - 1.4250 to the upside is still possible.

LONG TERM EURO :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions.

HIGH ALERT:If spot gold does not break $930 by 10th January then it will fall to $750 and $680 in January,2009

VIEWS FOR 17th DECEMBER 2008

GOLD TECHNICALS:The targets indicate yesterday were reached where the metal was able to hit the 76.4 percent correction for the trend illustrated above at 857.30 - 858.20. Gold is now at a critical area where price is being affected by three resistance levels at 857.30 , 865.70 and finally 871.75 where these levels could end the upside wave and reverse the trend to the downside but needs to be confirmed by a daily close below 822.60. Currently, we advise cautious trading giving priority to the upside movment due to the support level at 836.40 which could be a good demand point to result in reaching further upside targets yet the end to this wave is near.

SILVER TECHNICALS;Finally, the target at 11.05 was reached and the metal is now trading above this level where it is also at a critical area since a daily close above the mentioned level will open the way to 12.65 whereas a reverse to the downside will take silver to 10.53 at the very least.

CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude failed to confirm the upside direction where from there it will continue to decline as far as trading remains below 50.50. Despite several signals of an incline, we still need to see confirmation. Today we expect trading to be sideways but at anytime we could witness a sharp decling below the 40 level if crude isn't able to build a solid base above 48.60 oday or in the upcoming days.

EURO TECHNICALS:A vigorous upside movement neglected the fact that the pair was being overbought and as a result reached the 50% correction for the downside wave that started on 15-7-2008 and ended on 27-10-2008 at 1.4185. At the same time, we see trading is still above the 161.8% as seen in the image where this level is at 1.3945 and has become a key support for the pair. The chance is still opened for more gains yet as momentum indicators show that the pair is being overbought could result in high volatility and therefore trading today could be disrupted by a downside correction yet the overall trend is still to the upside depending on 1.3945 and the key support for the ascending channel at 1.3780.
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3960 with targets at 1.4315 and stop loss below 1.3815

MCX Gold Feb: As expected we will see rally towards 13245 as spot gold is strong. Corrective dips to find support at 12925 levels now.Very important support is at 12860 now for a possible test of 13553. S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105

MCX Silver Mar: Break and close above 17702 has resulted in a bullish reaction as envisaged. Supports are at 17981 followed by 17669 now.As long as 17653 hold, we can expect a gradual test of 20051.S1:17200 S2:16900 R1:17750 R2:17950

MCX Copper February: Still dangling for direction. Failure to surpass 165.8 and a weak close to add to bearishness.Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 ranges now. Break below could lead prices lower towards 138/139 .S1: 148 S2: 144 R1: 158 R2:162

MCX Crude Oil Jan : While above 2285 a hesitant rise towards 2414/2430 or ideally towards 2477 is anticipated.From there it could start falling again towards 2272 or lower. Rise above 2495 would be a bullish sign.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2385 R2:2425

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now. S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Lead Dec: Supports at 46.50 levels . Expect dips to find support at these levels for a move higher towards 50.0 levels .A break below 46.50 would take prices lower. S1: 46.50 S2: 46.00 R1: 48.00 R2: 49.15

MCX Nickel Dec: A break below 460.0 could take prices lower towards 445-450 levels . Important resistance at 478-485 levels. S1: 450 S2: 435 R1: 480 R2: 505

GOLDspot hit a high of 859.95 Overnight.866-950 Are next targets. But favoured view expects dips initially esp if 848 fails to hold. 834 Is a buying level. Weakness start below 828. Sup820/805/787/778

RUPEE strengthens to 1 month high after US Fed cut. USD/INR47.3850 (1.14%). Due to this global counters' gains would look smaller than its international counterparts.But expect 47 to hold

BUY ON CORRECTIVE DIPS 10.95-10.63 SL 10.40 TGT 11.51-11.83-12.30
BUY GOLD 12950-12980 SL 12900 TGT 13100
GOLD: BUY AT 848 OR ON DIP TO 838 SL 830 TGT 871-888 IN COMMING SESSION

VIEWS FOR 16TH DECEMBER 2008

Releases CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
UKCPI and RPI figures (Nov)08:30 Should all be lower than exp.
USCPI figures (Nov)12:30Big drops drop Expectations overdone?
USFOMC Rate Decision 18:150.25%1.00%Analysts expect 0.50%

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:Yesterday's closing was above the 61.8% correction just as we expected. Gold may now enter an upside wave once again to take it to levels between 857.30 and 865.70 where targets are as far as 871.85 for the upcoming short term ascending channel. Initially, we see the metal needs a downside correction as seen on momentum indicators that show gold being overbought. However, as far as 822.60 remains intact, the metal may continue to incline.

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:A successful breakout of the key resistance for the sideways triangle resulted in the creation of a new upside wave. We see the metal trading within an overbought area on the momentum indicators yet as it breached the above mentioned resistance level, the short term upside trend will remain but could be volatile due to being overbought. Silver is targeting 11.05 as far as trading is above 10.25

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A serious attempt in breaching the descending channel to the downside failed after crude returned to trade within the downside channel that has a resistance now at 46.00 whereas the 100 day MA on the one hour charts at 47.90 is gaining strength. Due to yesterday's incline, we could see crude extend its gains today once again to breach the mentioned resistance. An upside movement will not be confirmed unless trading remains above 48.50 or better yet, above 50.50 since the 50 mark was a strong resistance yesterday.The trading range for today is among the key support at 42.35 and the key resistance at 52.40

EVENING CALL BUY GOLD 12790-830 SL 12720 TGT 12920-12960-13000 ABV 13000 HIGHLY BULLISH TGT 13100-13250

SILVER BUY 17200-300 SL 17000 TGT 17500-17750

MCX Gold Feb: Corrective dips to 12793/12810 to find good support for the day and then rise higher towards 13075 or even higher towards 13226.Unexpected fall below 12700 to postpone the bullishness.S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105

MCX Silver Mar: As expected we saw a test of 17700 once again. Failure to close above this level decisively could lead to a sell-off again.Immediate supports are at 17354 followed by 17124. Unexpected fall below 16910 to accelerate the fall.However, a daily close above 17750 to bolster bullish expectations for a 19396.S1:17100 S2:16800 R1:17550 R2:17750

MCX Copper February: Failure to surpass 166.0 and a weak close to add to bearishness. Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 range now.Break below could lead prices lower towards 138.70/140.0 .S1: 152 S2: 148 R1: 160 R2:165

MCX Crude Oil Jan : First line of supports is near 2238/2248.5 followed by the next level near 2160/2181. Favoured view expects a rebound from any of these supports towards 2455. Fall below 2155 would hint that price could fall further towards the breakdown point at 2093.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2400 R2:2460

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 475- 465 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels.A fall below 445 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 465 S2: 442 R1:510 R2: 532

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- As long as 266.0-263.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 258 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

SPOT GOLD:: GOLDspot: Bias is +ve. $834 And 828 are entry points for rallies targetting 844-854-866. Break of 828 indicates bearish bias. Free fall below 820. Sup805/787/787 EXPECTATION : EXPECT SUPPORT TO HOLD FOR RALLIES

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 15TH DECEMBER

MCX Gold Feb: Dips to 12716/12732 to hold supports for an initial test of 13152. Further resistances are at 13386 and 13728.For the week we favor a test of 13728 as long as 12560 hold.S1: 12735 S2: 12650 R1: 12900 R2: 13005

MCX Silver Mar: Immediate resistance is at 17620 and stronger ones are at 17870/17937. A break and close above 18004/18037 should open the way for a sharp rise towards 19791 or even higher towards 21127. This is our favored view. However, failure to surpass 17954. regions could re-in force bearish expectations. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550

MCX Copper February: Once again bullish signs appear. Rise and close above 168.0 to trigger a clear bullish move. Initial resistance is at 175.0 followed by 183.50/185.50 levels. Important supports are at 160.70 followed by 155.16 S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Price could attempt to rise towards levels like 2586/2612 or even 2720. Short-term dips if any could be held near 2400/2423 or maximum 2317 for an upturn. It has to fall below 2300 to reassess the situation. S1: 2385 S2: 2325 R1: 2475 R2:2550

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels . Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 500 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels. A fall below 495 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 485 S2: 465 R1:520 R2: 550

GOLD COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATE:Gold started the week slightly inclining but still below the 835.75 critical level which halts the metal from extending thegains to reach 858.20 and 866.45 respectively. Trading above the 806.85 level will result in the pair attempting to retest the above mentioned resistance level to achieve the next targets

SILVER COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATEnce again, silver is trading below the key support for the sideways triangle attempting to breach it to reach 11.05. We should monitor the intraday trend as the metal is declining due to trading below the mentioned resistance at 10.46 however the breach of this level will open the way for the metal to reach its targets gradually.

CRUDE NYMEX TECHNICALS:Crude is trading below the resistance level at 47.55 and the 100 day MA on the four hour charts at 48.45. If prices remain below this level, we will see a significant drop yet we should remain cautious since trading above the 100 day MA will reverse the trend on the intraday basis for today and will incline targeting 50.50

JACK POT CALL ::
BUY CRUDE IN DIP 45.50-44.30 SL BELOW 43.30 TGT 49 - 50.50 DAILY CLS ABV 49.50 WILL ZOOM TO 54-56

VIEWS FOR 12TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: A corrective dip towards 12565 12457 regions is anticipated. Ideally next upturn in this support region should carry it towards the next projected objective at 13060/13074. This is the favored scenario. Fall below 12442 could cause some doubts about this view as such a dip could pull it down further towards next support at 12365.S1: 12735 S2: 12650 R1: 12900 R2: 13005

MCX Silver Mar: Corrective dips to 16710/16628 could find support for a move higher towards 17698/17780, break below 16331 would negate this bullish view. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550

MCX Copper February: Prices are moving in a broad range of 155.55 and 170.0, break of the range will decide the direction.S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176

MCX Crude Oil Dec : Favoured view expects that supports near 2240/2230 could be tested before next rally towards 2400/2424.Unexpected dip below 2218 would hint at weakness. Next supports are around 2203 ; 2146.S1: 2285 S2: 2225 R1: 2375 R2:2450

MCX Lead Dec: A break of the range 48.50-51.0 would decide the next directive move.S1: 49.10 S2: 48.50 R1: 51.10 R2: 52.70

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find resistance at 550 levels for a move lower towards 500 levels.A rise above 551 to cast doubt about this view.S1: 512 S2: 488 R1:540 R2: 555

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 266.0-262.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 260 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 2

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.75-55.0 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 51.0-49.5 levels .A rise above 55.0 to negate this bearish view.S1: 52.5 S2: 51.50 R1: 54.20 R2: 55.20

ALERT: GOLDspot: Intraday bias to be negative as long as 820 holds.805 Is a buying support. Sup below at 787/778 (last). Bullish again only above 830.Watchout for Comex Expiry(Dec29) related long liquidation 12.12.2008 :

VIEWS FOR 11th DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Break above 12559/12590 is a positive sign and should lead prices towards 12905 or 13077 levels now. Supports are at 12387 followed by 12293 levels now.S1: 12635 S2: 12550 R1: 12800 R2: 12895

MCX Silver Mar: Expect prices to rise towards 18080 levels being a strong resistance point. Ideally, prices should cap here or before this level for a decline,as the big picture structures remain weak.S1:16720 S2:16380 R1:17350 R2:17750

MCX Copper February: A messy consolidation in progress. Supports are at 159 followed by 155 now. We favor supports to hold for a test of 182 or even higher.Direct fall below 152 to accelerate the fall towards 124.S1: 163 S2: 157 R1: 172 R2:178

MCX Crude Oil Dec : Favoured view expects an upturn near the supports that are located around 2100/2114, 2050 $ lastly 2030.The potential for a rally towards 2257 or 2291 continues to exist. Price has to fall below 2027 to hint at the possibility of some more downside attempts.S1: 2150 S2: 2098 R1: 2257 R2:2310

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 48.0-48.15 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 50.5-50.75 levels . However a fall below 48.00 would negate this bullish view.S1: 48.50 S2: 47.50 R1: 50.10 R2: 51.70

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.0-54.25 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 56.8-57.25 levels .However a fall below 53.80 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.50 R1: 55.90 R2: 57.20

MCX Nickel Dec: As long as 487.0-475.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 532.0-550.0 levels .However a fall below 470.00 would negate this bullish view.S1: 485 S2: 462 R1:525 R2: 550

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 273.0-269.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 268 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

VIEWS FOR 10TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb:Continues to consolidate with a mild bullish bias.Resistance in the 12502-12540 zone quite strong could even extend to 12610 as long as 12110 holds. S1: 12272 S2: 12185 R1: 12395 R2: 12470

MCX Silver Mar: Resistance is at 17250 followed by 17620 now. Big picture structures favor a downside still and expect resistances to cap for a decline towards 15832. Direct rise above 17860 to cast doubts on our bearish view. S1:16720 S2:16380 R1:17072 R2:17246

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Supports are at 2040/2045 levels now. Ideally, a consolidation between 2045 to 2193 to continue and then breakout higher towards 2370 or even higher. This is the favored expectation. Failure to hold support at 2020-2045 zones to take prices lower towards 1873. S1: 2095 S2: 2035 R1: 2175 R2:2210

MCX Copper February: A messy consolidation in progress. Supports are at 160 followed by 157 now. We favor supports to hold for a test of 185 or even higher. Direct fall below 153 to accelerate the fall towards 126.S1: 160 S2: 157 R1: 167 R2:170

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.0-54.25 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 56.8-57.25 levels . However a fall below 54.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 54.15 S2: 53.50 R1: 55.90 R2: 57.20

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 48.0-48.15 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 50.5-50.75 levels . However a fall below 48.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 48.00 S2: 47.00 R1: 50.10 R2: 51.70

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 273.0-269.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels . However a fall below 268 would negate this bullish view. S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

MCX Nickel Dec: As long as 452.0-447.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 475.0-487.0 levels . However a fall below 447.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 447 S2: 420 R1:472 R2: 485

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 08TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Resistances are at 12303 followed by 12430 now. Rise above 12430 could lead prices higher towards 12672 levels again. However, price structures, are not conducive for any major upside and expect a test of 11550 levels. S1: 12035 S2: 11950 R1: 12199 R2: 12322

MCX Copper February: A possible upward correction can be seen. The first trigger will be a rise above 171.50 followed by close above 178. In the absence of this move the downside rally could continue towards 157.S1: 159 S2: 155 R1: 165.70 R2:169.55

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Favoured view expects a corrective rise towards 2170 / 2250. Supports are near 2095 $ 2078. Fall below 2075 would cause doubts about maintaining this stance. Below 2025 we could see the resumption of downtrend that has its next target at 1802 to begin with S1: 2078 S2: 2025 R1: 2145 R2:2188

MCX Zinc Dec: - Supports at 53.05 / 52 levels now. While above these levels we could expect corrective rallies towards 57/58 levels. Fall below 52 to see further weakness in prices.S1: 53.10 S2: 52.00 R1: 55.60 R2: 57.20

MCX Lead Dec: A break above 50 could see a corrective rally towards 52.50/53 levels. On the other hand a fall below 46 would be required to see prices prices weaken further.S1: 46.25 S2: 45.00 R1: 49.50 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Dec:Rallies to 471/480 could find resistance for a fall lower toward 440, break above 485 would negate this bearish view.S1:447 S2:420 R1:472 R2:485

MCX Natural Gas Dec While below 295 / 306 prices could stay under pressure and a break below 284 to see further weakness. A rise above 313 would negate this view. S1: 285 S2: 270 R1: 295 R2: 306

COMMODITY ::: VIEWS FOR 5TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Rallies to 12570/12610 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 12260/12280, break below 12250 will be a bearish sign and prices could test 12100/12120 levels. Break above 12650 would negate this bearish view. S1: 12265 S2: 12120 R1: 12500 R2: 12650

MCX Silver Mar: Favored view expects a fall towards 15800/15850 as long as 16900/16950 caps. However, a direct rise above 17000 to postpone the bearishness.S1:16500 S2:16100 R1:16850 R2:17000

MCX Copper February: A near-term target at 170 has been tested. Further supports at 163/164 being a long-term support point. Possibility of a test of 156/157 cannot be ruled out though. Resistance will be at 174/175 now. S1: 164 S2: 158 R1: 172 R2:177.50

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Structure is bearish for a fall towards 2180/2150 regions. Even 2110/2120 is possible. Short-term up ticks could be seen testing nearer resistance at 2250/2265. Rise above 2300 is needed to hint at stronger recovery, lessening the chance for an immediate decline. S1:2200 S2:2160 R1:2260 R2:2300

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 58.40/58.60 caps the upside, expect prices to edge lower towards 55.30/54.80. Rise above 59.90 would negate this bearish view.S1: 56.00 S2: 54.80 R1: 58.40 R2: 59.90

MCX Lead Dec: Expect corrective rallies to find resistance towards 50.20 / 50.50 for a fall towards 47.70 / 47.00 levels. Break above 52.50 would cause doubts about this view. S1: 48.00 S2: 46.70 R1: 50.50 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Dec: Rallies to 471/474 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 450/445, break above 480 would negate this bearish view. S1: 455 S2: 440 R1:472 R2: 485

MCX Natural Gas Dec As long as 315/316 resist expect move lower toward 292/294, break above 320 would negate this bearish view. S1:295 S2:290 R1:310 R2:316.50

COMMODITY :: VIEWS FOR 4th DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Rallies to 12630/12650 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 12360/12380, break below 12360 will be a bearish sign and prices could test 12230/12250 levels. Break above 12700 would negate this bearish view. S1: 12360 S2: 12250 R1: 12620 R2: 12700

MCX Silver Mar: Favored view expects a fall towards 15800/15850 as long as 16950/17000 caps. However, a direct rise above 17020 to postpone the bearishness. S1:16450 S2:16100 R1:16850 R2:17000

MCX Copper February: Important resistance is at 184/85 now. Chances of a pullback or a turnaround is likely above 186. However, further downside towards 170/171 while below 184/85. S1: 180 S2: 172.50 R1: 188 R2:194.50

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Prices could fall towards 2320/2340 initially. Then any rallies to 2380/2400 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 2240/2260, break above 2430 would negate this bearish view. S1: 2320 S2: 2250 R1: 2430 R2:2480

MCX Zinc Dec: - Expect corrective rallies to 58.9/59.20 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 55.30/55.50 levels. Break above 60.25 would negate this bearish view. S1: 56.70 S2: 55.50 R1: 58.90 R2: 60.25

MCX Lead Dec: Any rallies to 52.30/52.60 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 48.50/48 levels. Break above 54.40 would negate this bearish view. S1: 49.10 S2: 48.10 R1: 52.30 R2: 54.50

MCX Nickel Dec: Rallies to 479/485 could find resistance for fall lower toward 450/445, break above 493 would negate bearish view. S1:455 S2:440 R1:479 R2:495

MCX NaturalGas Dec As long as 325/326 resist expect move lower toward 306/308, break above 328 would negate this bearish view. S1:308 S2:300 R1:325 R2:333

VIEWS FOR 3RD DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: As expected we saw a pullback towards 12700 levels. Support is at 12460/12480 now. Direct rise above 12730 to re-in force bullish expectations. However, structure shows weakness for the time being. S1: 12520 S2: 12430 R1: 12680 R2: 12820

MCX Silver Mar: Favored view expects a fall towards 15650/15700 as long as 17100/17150 caps the upside. However, a direct rise above 17180 will postpone the bearishness.S1:16600 S2:16350 R1:16900 R2:17150

MCX Copper February: Is still in a consolidation, with a mild bullish bias. Fall below 179/180 to take prices lower towards 166/168 levels now or even lower. Only a direct rise above 197/198 to indicate a clear bullish rally from here. S1: 180 S2: 172.50 R1: 188 R2:194.50

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Expect prices to fall towards 2420/2430 initially. Resistance at 2490/2500 should cap for a fall towards 2330/2340 or even lower. Only an Unexpected rise above 2565 to show a bullish turnaround. S1: 2420 S2: 2340 R1: 2510 R2:2570

MCX Zinc Dec :- Expect prices to find resistance towards 60/60.5 for a fall lower towards 57.50/56.80 levels, break above 61 would cast doubts about this bearish view.S1: 58.10 S2: 56.5 R1: 60.5 R2: 62

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 56.60/57 caps the upside expect prices to edge lower towards 53.30/53.60 levles. Break above 57.50 would cast doubts about this bearish view.S1: 54.10 S2: 53 R1: 56.60 R2: 58.10

VIEWS FOR 2nd DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Important support at 12750/12780 has been broken. Resistances now at 12830/12850 followed by 12920/12940. S1:12610 S2:12480 R1: 12770 R2: 12920

MCX Silver Mar: Silver vulnerable for fall towards 15850 or even lower. Resistance at 16880/16940 followed by 17150/17190. S1:16540 S2:16200 R1:16900 R2:17150

MCX Copper February: Is still in a consolidation, with a mild bullish bias. Fall below 180 to take prices lower towards 174/175 levels now or even lower.Only a direct rise above 196.50/197 to indicate a clear bullish rally from here. S1: 182.50 S2: 175.50 R1: 190 R2:195

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Expect prices to dip to 2480/2500 initially. Then Up ticks could be capped near 2560 or 2580 for next decline that could attempt to break below 2460 and go for next levels near 2410/2360. It has to cross above 2620 to hint that there could be a stronger upwards retracement towards 2640/2650 or 2680/2690 levels. S1: 2500 S2: 2400 R1: 2590 R2:2650

MCX Zinc Dec: Expect price to find resistance toward 61/61.20 for a fall lower toward 58.90/59 level, break above 62.20 would cast doubt about this bearish view S1: 59.20 S2: 57.90 R1: 61.10 R2: 62.50

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 57.60/57.80 caps the upside expect prices to edge lower towards 53.50/53.90 levles. Break above 59 would cast doubts about this bearish view. S1: 54.80 S2: 53.5 R1: 57.60 R2: 59.20

MCX Nickel Dec: Rallies to 517/522 could find resistance for fall lower toward 490/495, break above 530 would negate this bearish view.S1: 498 S2: 480 R1:517 R2: 535

MCX Natural Gas Dec: As long as 340/341 resist expect a move lower towards 315/316, break above 344 would negate this bearish view. S1:330 S2:322 R1: 340 R2: 348

VIEWS FOR 12th NOVEMBER 2008

MCX Gold: As expected support at 11495 being the downside trading range held so far. Strong resistance will be seen at 11820 now.No clear direction till we see a break on either side.S1: 11560 S2:11480 R1: 11690 R2: 11740

MCX Silver December: Resistance is at 17017 followed by 17362 now. Rallies to 17185 can be sold s/l 17710 t/p 16066.S1:16500 S2:16350 R1:16950 R2:17200

MCX Crude Oil November: Supports are near 2856 $ 2793. While below 2898/2907 region price could dip first towards supports and then rise as a corrective sequence towards levels like 2966 or even 3030.

MCX Copper November: - Mild support at recent lows at 180.0 was seen. Resistance will be seen at 190.0 followed by 194.0.Only a direct rise above 196 could re-enforce bullish expectations.S1: 177 S2: 173 R1: 188 R2:192

VIEWS FOR 11th NOVEMBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Back in its volatile range again. Near-term support at 11610 followed by 11328 now. Favoured view still expects a break of 11998 as long as 11142/11172.S1: 11450 S2:11388 R1: 11615 R2: 11700

MCX Silver December: Supports are at 16751 followed by 16383 now. Break below 16380 could drag prices lower towards 15281/15370 levels. S1:16700 S2:16450 R1:17250 R2:17600

MCX Crude Oil November: Dips could be held near 2881/2895 or max 2840 for a rise towards 3035 or higher like 3077.Risk is set below 2833. Next support at 2800 $ 2761.S1: 2845 S2: 2800 R1: 2915 R2:2985

MCX Copper November: - Choppiness continues in the base metal complex. Near-term support is at 180/181 now. Unexpected fall below this level could once again bring our target at 145 in focus.S1: 182 S2: 178 R1: 193 R2:199

MCX Zinc Nov :- A break of the broad range 52.0-56.5 will decide the next directive move. Favored view expects a fall. S1: 51.55 S2: 50.00 R1: 54.00 R2: 55.15

MCX Lead Nov :- Expect up ticks to find resistance at 69.5 levels for a fall towards support levels at 64.0 levels .A direct rise above 69.5 would be a bullish sign S1: 64.20: 63.00 R1: 66.35 R2: 67.70

MCX Nickel Nov: A break of the broad range 578 , 525 would decide the next directive move. Favored view expect up ticks to find resistance at 565-578 levels. S1: 535 S2: 525 R1:565 R2: 585

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Expect up ticks to find resistance at 345-350 zones to fall lower towards 335-327 levels . Only a rise above 352 would be considered bullish.S1: 335 S2: 327 R1: 342 R2: 349

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 10th NOVEMBER

MCX Gold (December) : Chart is bullish for a rise towards 11970/12090. Now a corrective retracement is possible. Supports are at near 11743/11728.It has to fall below 11633 to give up this bullish view.
S1:11450 S2:11388 R1:11615 R2:11700.

MCX Silver (December) : Rise above 17400 is seen as a bullish sign which could lead prices back towards 18120 or even higher. Important support is at 16900 followed by 16630.
S1:16700 S2:16450 R1:17250 R2:17600

MCX Crude Oil (Nov) : Price could rise towards 3145/3170 areas. Short-term exhaustion noticed now hints at the possibility of a drift to supports near 3072/3048. It has to fall below 3035 to cause doubts about this bullish view. S1:2980 S2:2955 R1:3055 R2:3120.

VIEWS FOR 07th NOVEMBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Looks more like a consolidation in play between 11224-12000 levels. Price structures are not comfortable for a bullish move Fall below 11224 to drag prices lower towards 10670 or even lower.S1: 11400 S2:11320 R1: 11565 R2: 11630

MCX Silver December: Break above 17450 turned out to be a false one. Fall below 16750 could now accelerate the fall 16536. However, positive indicators increase hopes for a rise provided supports at 16363/16531 holds.S1:16700 S2:16450 R1:17250 R2:17600

MCX Crude Oil November: A rally to 3010/3033 or maximum 3063 could precede further decline towards 2852/2828 regions. Direct rise above 3083 is needed to cause doubts about this view as such a move could see it strengthening further towards 3118/3143. S1: 2900 S2: 2845 R1:3000 R2:3065

MCX Copper November: - Fall below 193.4 to trigger bearishness towards 146 levels. However, if support is noticed here and a subsequent close above 213 to lead prices higher towards 255. Favored view expects a fall.S1: 182 S2: 178 R1: 190 R2:195

MCX Zinc Nov :- 55.25-56.25 are important resistances now . As long as prices are below these levels , prices may touch 50.0 levels. Only a rise above 56.50 would negate this bearish view. S1: 52.55 S2: 51.00 R1: 55.00 R2: 56.55

MCX Lead Nov: Important resistances at 73.80-75.40 levels , while below these levels prices could test 66.50 levels .Only a rise above 76.0 would negate this bearish view.S1: 70.0 S2: 68.80 R1: 71.35 R2: 72.70

MCX Nickel Nov: A break below 550 levels could take prices towards 515-520 levels as long as prices stay below 610-620 levels.A rise above 620 would cause doubts about this bearish view. S1: 544 S2: 521 R1:595 R2: 618

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Moved as expected. Important resistance now at 341 and further at 349 , as long as prices stay below these levels 323-318 levels could be tested. Only a rise above 351 to negate this bearish view now.S1: 328 S2: 321 R1: 341 R2: 350

VIEWS FOR 07th NOVEMBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Looks more like a consolidation in play between 11224-12000 levels. Price structures are not comfortable for a bullish move Fall below 11224 to drag prices lower towards 10670 or even lower.S1: 11400 S2:11320 R1: 11565 R2: 11630

MCX Silver December: Break above 17450 turned out to be a false one. Fall below 16750 could now accelerate the fall 16536. However, positive indicators increase hopes for a rise provided supports at 16363/16531 holds.S1:16700 S2:16450 R1:17250 R2:17600

MCX Crude Oil November: A rally to 3010/3033 or maximum 3063 could precede further decline towards 2852/2828 regions. Direct rise above 3083 is needed to cause doubts about this view as such a move could see it strengthening further towards 3118/3143. S1: 2900 S2: 2845 R1:3000 R2:3065

MCX Copper November: - Fall below 193.4 to trigger bearishness towards 146 levels. However, if support is noticed here and a subsequent close above 213 to lead prices higher towards 255. Favored view expects a fall.S1: 182 S2: 178 R1: 190 R2:195

MCX Zinc Nov :- 55.25-56.25 are important resistances now . As long as prices are below these levels , prices may touch 50.0 levels. Only a rise above 56.50 would negate this bearish view. S1: 52.55 S2: 51.00 R1: 55.00 R2: 56.55

MCX Lead Nov: Important resistances at 73.80-75.40 levels , while below these levels prices could test 66.50 levels .Only a rise above 76.0 would negate this bearish view.S1: 70.0 S2: 68.80 R1: 71.35 R2: 72.70

MCX Nickel Nov: A break below 550 levels could take prices towards 515-520 levels as long as prices stay below 610-620 levels.A rise above 620 would cause doubts about this bearish view. S1: 544 S2: 521 R1:595 R2: 618

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Moved as expected. Important resistance now at 341 and further at 349 , as long as prices stay below these levels 323-318 levels could be tested. Only a rise above 351 to negate this bearish view now.S1: 328 S2: 321 R1: 341 R2: 350

VIEWS FOR 4th NOVEMBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): As long as 11794/11825 caps the upside expect prices to fall lower towards 11284 followed by 11076, break above 11857 would negate this bearish view.
S1: 11550 S2:11485 R1: 11700 R2: 11775.

MCX Silver December: Expect prices to find support at 16224/16139 for a move higher towards 17328 followed by 18008, break below 15595 would negate this bullish view.S1:16500 S2:16210 R1:17100 R2:17400

MCX Crude Oil November: Resistance near 3170 or maximum 3213 could cap advances for next decline towards 3048/3023.It needs to rise above 3245 to change this bearish view.
S1: 3100 S2: 3045 R1:3200 R2:3270

MCX Copper November: - As long as 195.5 holds support expect a move higher towards 220/227, break below 193 would negate this bullish view.S1: 198 2: 193 R1: 208 R2:214

MCX Zinc Nov :- Important support at 55.5 levels , as long as this level holds support , prices could move higher towards resistance levels at 58.75 .A rise above 58.80 is needed for a higher move. A fall below 54.8 would be bearish. S1: 56.45 S2: 55.15 R1: 58.95 R2: 60.15

MCX Lead Nov: Expect supports at 71.3 levels to hold support for prices to move higher towards resistance at 76.0-77.0 levels .Fall below 70.0 would be considered bearish.S1: 71.35 S2: 70.0 R1: 73.85 R2: 75.0

MCX Nickel Nov: Expect 575 levels to support prices for a move higher towards 615 levels. A fall below 570 would cast a doubt on this bullish view and would take prices lower.S1: 560 S2: 545 R1: 598 R2: 625

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Expect 318-312 levels to support prices for a move higher towards 330-345 range.Only a fall below 310 would be considered bearish now.S1: 315 S2: 308 R1: 333 R2: 342

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 3rd NOV

MCX Gold (December): Bearish momentum suggests that price could fall towards minimum 11388. This decline has a potential to stretch to the ideal target band at 10970/10896 or as an extreme case to even 10574. Up ticks if any could be capped at 11735 or maximum 11831. This bearish view would become doubtful if price manages to rise past 11847.S1: 11630 S2:11550 R1: 11885 R2: 11955

MCX Silver December: Favoring a corrective rise. The chart looks bullish for a rise towards 17520/17740 or 18970/19300. Corrective dips of any could be held near 16335/16425. It has to fall below 15770 to change this bullish outlook.S1:16500 S2:16210 R1:17100 R2:17400

MCX Crude Oil November: Chart looks bullish for 3500/3520. Corrective dips could be held at 3370 or maximum 3330. Stop below 3295 the outlook would not be clear.S1: 3345 S2: 3295 R1:3468 R2:3515

MCX Copper November: - A corrective rise towards 232 or even 249 is expected. Initial resistance is at 215, Supports are around 204 $ 200 It needs to fall below 192 to turn the view bearish. As of now upside is favored.S1: 206 S2: 200 R1: 218 R2:225

MCX Lead Nov: Expect dips to find support at 71.0 72.0 levels for a move higher towards 77.65 or even 79.0 levels .Fall below 69.5 would cause doubts about this view.S1: 73.35 S2: 72.0 R1: 76.35 R2: 77.85

MCX Zinc Nov :- As long as 56.5 levels hold support , expect prices to move up higher towards 61.0 or even 63.0 levels .Fall below 54.80 would cause doubts about this bullish view. S1: 56.45 S2: 55.15 R1: 58.95 R2: 60.15

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Expect 324-318 levels to support prices for a move higher towards 340-356 range.Only a fall below 314 would be considered bearish now.S1: 323 S2: 315 R1: 342 R2: 350

MCX Nickel Nov: Expect prices to find support at 595 605 levels for a move higher towards 644 or even 675 levels.Only a fall below 565 would cast a doubt on this bullish view.S1: 600 S2: 575 R1: 651 R2: 674

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VIEWS FOR 24TH OCTOBER 2008

MCX Crude Oil November: Favoured view expects corrective rallies to be capped near 3567/3603 for a fall towards 3284/3248. Unexpected rise past 3628 S1: 3400 S2: 3345 R1:3535 R2:3600

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Moved as expected . Resistances now at 342-347 levels now. As long as these levels resist prices could slide down further towards 325 or even lower towards 316 levels. Only a rise above 351 would induce bullishness S1: 328 S2: 320 R1: 343 R2: 350

MCX Nickel Oct: While above 470 levels corrective rallies may test resistance levels at 486 -500 levels . Fall below 465 would negate this view and would signal the resumption of the bearish move.
S1: 455 S2: 435 R1: 488 R2: 508

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 62.35-61.25 levels support , corrective rally could test resistance levels at 65.85 or even higher at 67.0 levels.Fall below 62.0 would negate this view and would signal the resumption of the bearish move.S1: 63.25 S2: 62.0 R1: 66.0 R2: 67.0

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 56.65-55.90 levels support , corrective rally could test resistance levels at 60.45 or even higher at 62.40 levels. Fall below 55.0 would negate this view and would signal the resumption of the bearish move. S1: 57.35 S2: 55.85 R1: 59.85 R2: 61.0

VIEWS FOR 23rd OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Downside target extends to 11656/11607 or even 11395. The overdone indications shown by oscillators suggest that there could be a corrective retracement towards 12000/12032 regions before further weakness. Rise past 12100 would hint at stronger recovery.Play a downturn in the resistance area.S1: 11800 S2:11725 R1: 11965 R2: 12045

MCX Silver December: Rallies to 17426 followed by 17625 should find resistance for a test of 16590 or even 16084.Only a break of 18024 would negate this view.S1:16850 S2:16500 R1:17450 R2:17850

MCX Crude Oil November: Favoured view expects the price to stay under 3636 and fall towards 3038. A corrective rise is favored first while staying above 3342.Resistance at 3446 or 3482 could attract first. Fall below 3342 would hint that it would be going down for 3260 first.Favoured view expects price to stay under 3489 and start next leg decline.S1: 3500 S2: 3445 R1:3625 R2:3370

MCX Copper November: - Rallies to 205.65/207.9 are expected to find resistance for a fall lower towards 190.8 or even 189.6.Only a break of 212.5 would negate this view.S1: 204 S2: 200 R1: 213 R2:218

MCX Zinc Oct: More downside expected. As long as 56.5 levels resist, expect prices to move lower towards 53.5 or even lower towards 51.0 levels.Only a rise above 57.15 would negate this bearish view.S1: 54.0 S2: 52.85 R1: 56.85 R2: 58.0

MCX Lead Oct: More downside expected. As long as 62.0 levels resist, expect prices to move lower towards 57.5 or even lower towards 53.5 levels.Only a rise above 63.0 would negate this bearish view.S1: 60.3 S2: 58.5 R1: 64.25 R2: 66.80

MCX Nickel Oct: Breach of important support levels would lead to lower levels today. As long as 485 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 468 or even lower towards 445 levels. Only a rise above 501 would cast doubts on this bearish view.S1: 465 S2: 445 R1: 502 R2: 526

MCX Natural Gas Nov: Currently trading in the range 342-357. Expect a sharp directive move on the break of this range.S1: 340 S2: 328 R1: 360 R2: 372

VIEWS FOR 21ST OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Break and rise above 12989/13040 could open the way for temporary bullishness towards 13196 levels.Favored view still expects resistance in the 12989/13040 zones to be capped for a fall towards 11980 levels.S1: 12650 S2:12525 R1: 12850 R2: 12945

MCX Silver December: Showing a bullish picture now. Bullish divergence followed by a rise above 17852 could result in a pullback towards 20363 now.Fall below 17224 would diminish bullish hopes.
S1:17650 S2:17300 R1:18100 R2:18450

MCX Crude Oil November : Price could hold above 3716/3742 and attempt to test next resistance levels spread between 3840 $ 3915. As the trend is still down Direct fall below 3661 would hint that the corrective rally might have exhausted sooner than expected.S1:3700 S2:3635 R1:3810 R2:3865

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 61.2 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 58.2 or even lower towards 56.25-54.0 levels. Only a rise above 62.0 would negate this bearish view.
S1: 58.0 S2: 56.85 R1: 61.0 R2: 62.35

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 72.5 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 68.3 or even lower towards 66.0-65.0 levels.Only a rise above 73.0 would negate this bearish view.S1: 69.0 S2: 68.10 R1: 71.95 R2: 73.20

MCX Nickel Oct: As long as 537 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 514 or even lower towards 500-490 levels.Only a rise above 545 would negate this bearish view.S1: 518 S2: 503 R1: 550 R2: 572

MCX Natural Gas Nov: As long as 355 levels resists expect prices to move lower towards 343 or even 330 levels Rise above 361 to dent our bearish expectations. S1: 339 S2: 328 R1:360 R2: 372

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK -- 20TH OCTOBER TO 25TH OCTOBER

MCX Gold (December): Positive short-term momentum favors a corrective rise towards 12905 or 12954. It needs to cross above 13018 to attract more buying.Favoured view suggests that price could stay below 12954 and starts falling towards 11950.S1: 12500 S2:12438 R1: 12645 R2: 12715

MCX Silver December: Resistance at 18205/18241 levels now. Direct rise above 18425 will bolster hopes for a pullback towards 20533 levels.However, favored view expects resistance at 18333/18425 to cap for a decline towards 16408/16500.S1:17120 S2:16850 R1:17550 R2:17800

MCX Copper November :- Range trade between 225 to 249 in progress. Favored view expects a pullback towards 264/267or even higher as long as the downside range at 225-227 holds.S1: 237 S2: 232 R1: 246 R2:251

MCX Crude Oil November : Upside attempts could be capped near 3688/3714 for next decline towards 3240/3265. It has to rise above 3728to prove this expectation wrong as such a rise could attempt to cross above 3765 and go for 3837 plus.S1:3545 S2:3485 R1:3665 R2:3715

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 58.2 levels support, expect corrective rallies to 62.0 or even 63.7 levels.Fall below 58.0 would confirm resumption of the bearish trend. S1: 58.0 S2: 56.85 R1: 61.0 R2: 62.35

MCX Nickel Oct: Expect corrective rallies to test 571 or even 595 levels as long as 525-515 levels support .However a fall below 510 would hint at further weakness in prices.S1: 518 S2: 503 R1: 550 R2: 572

MCX Lead Oct: Expect corrective rallies to test 72.6 or even 75.4 levels as long as 68.0 levels support . Fall below 67.3 would lead to further decline.S1: 69.0 S2: 68.10 R1: 71.95 R2: 73.20

MCX Natural Gas Oct: As long as 329-325 levels hold support expect prices to rally towards 349 or even 366 levels .Fall below 325 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 327 S2: 321 R1:341 R2: 349

VIEW FOR 17TH OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Moved as per expectations. Pullback expected for the day towards 13055-13086 or even higher towards 13229.Favored view still expects a fall towards 12055 levels as long as these resistances cap . Caution to be exercised for shorts on the break of 13515.S1: 12700 S2:12635 R1: 12850 R2: 12935

MCX Silver December: As expected we saw a fall towards 17000. Showing some signs of pullback today.Resistance at 18082 followed by 18622 .Favored view expects resistance to cap for a fall towards 15347 .Unexpected rise above 18712 to cast doubts on this bearish view.S1:17120 S2:16850 R1:17550 R2:17800

MCX Copper November :- Resistance at 257.1 expected to cap for a decline towards 226 or even lower .. However a move above 263-264 should hint at the extension towards 290. S1: 226 S2: 221 R1: 236 R2:241

MCX Crude Oil November : Corrective rise towards 3702/3737 region is favored. Supports are at 3578, 3538 $ 3523.correction before next decline towards 3230.It has to fall below 3463 to hint at the possibility of failure of this expectation. The expected rally would be treated as a minor S1:3435 S2:3375 R1:3585 R2:3665

MCX Zinc Oct: Oversold conditions indicate a bounce from yesterdayAcA?A¿s lows. As long as 57.85-58.2 levels support expect corrective rallies to 62.0 or even 63.7 levels. Fall below 57.8 would confirm resumption of the bearish trend. S1: 58.0 S2: 56.85 R1: 60.0 R2: 61.3

MCX Lead Oct: Expect corrective rallies to test 71.3 or even 73.10 levels as long as 68.0 levels support . Fall below 67.3 would lead to further decline.S1: 68.0 S2: 67.10 R1: 70.0 R2: 71.20

MCX Nickel Oct: Expect corrective rallies to test 571 or even 595 levels as long as 545 levels support .However a fall below 545 would hint at further weakness in prices. S1: 545 S2: 530 R1: 568 R2: 591

MCX Natural Gas Oct: As long as 329-325 levels hold support expect prices to rally towards 349 levels . Fall below 322 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 327 S2: 321 R1:341 R2: 349

VIEWS FOR 16th OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Favored view expects a fall towards 12853 levels or even lower. A bearish consolidation is in progress and as long as 13682 caps upside attempts , we can see a fall below 12853 levels.S1:13265 S2:13200 R1:13385 R2:13455

MCX Silver December: As expected we saw a fall towards 18125.Resistance at 18656 followed by 19010 now.Rise above 19365 to cast doubts on our bearish expectations. S1:18100 S2:17850 R1:18450 R2:18785

MCX Crude Oil :-Rise above 3690 is needed to hint at a stronger upward retracement. S1:3545 S2:3500 R1:3615 R2:3670

MCX Copper November :- As expected we saw a test of 236 levels . Further downside to 227 or even lower 207 levels looks likely.Only a rise above 249 to reinforce bullish expectations. S1: 228 S2:223 R1:238 R2:243

MCX Zinc Oct: Moved as expected. Expect bearishness to continue for a test of 61.0 levels now as long as 66.0 levels resist .Only arise above 66.75 would cast a doubt on this view. S1: 62.75 S2: 61.35 R1: 65.85 R2: 67.10

MCX Lead Oct: Expect bearishness to continue for a test of 70.5 levels now as long as 75.60 levels resist .Only a rise above 76.15 would cast a doubt on this view. S1: 72.45 S2: 71.05 R1: 74.55 R2: 75.65

MCX Nickel Oct: Expect bearishness to continue for a test of 565 levels or even lower towards 540 now as long as 605 levels resistOnly arise above 615 would cast a doubt on this view.S1: 570 S2: 558 R1: 596 R2: 612

VIEWS FOR 15th OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): The 12696-13580 range is active now. Favored view expects the lower side of the range to be broken followed by a test of 11844 or even lower.S1:13000 S2:12945 R1:13145 R2:13220

MCX Silver December: Favored view expects a test of 19890 as long as 18090 holds.S1:18350 S2:18120 R1:18950 R2:19165

MCX Copper November :- Came close to testing our target and retraced from there. Important support is at 243 now below which the downtrend could find more momentum. Structure however favor an upside towards 281 or even higher towards 299 as long as 235/237 holds.S1: 245 S2:239 R1:258 R2:264

MCX Crude Oil October: The decline could find supports near 3727/3713 for one more corrective rise towards 4073 or 4121.Fall below 3713 would increase the chances of further decline towards 3645/3650.S1:3712 S2:3645 R1:3895 R2:3955

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 69.7-70.6 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 66.4 or even 64.0 levels.Only a rise above 71.0 levels will bring in bullishness. S1: 66.75 S2: 65.35 R1: 68.85 R2: 70.10

MCX Lead Oct: Expect bullishness to continue for a test of 80.70 or even 81.65 levels as long as 76.45 levels hold support .Only a fall below 75.6 would negate this bullish view.S1: 76.15 S2: 75.0 R1: 78.15 R2: 79.55

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Only a break of the range 317-331 would decide the next directive move.S1: 316 S:310 R1:332 R2: 345

VIEW FOR 14TH OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): The 12778-13666 range is active now. Favored view expects the lower side of the range to be broken followed by a test of 11921 or even lower.S1:13165 S2:13100 R1:13300 R2:13385.

MCX Silver December: Favored view expects a test of 20345 as long as 18503 holds.S1:19000 S2:18775 R1:19325 R2:19560

MCX Copper November :- The pullback could extend towards 278 levels where it could find good resistance.Supports are at 257 now. Fall below 250 could dent our bullish expectations.S1: 260 S2:256 R1:266 R2:273

MCX Crude Oil October: Supports are near 4008 $ 3955. Favoured view is bullish for a rally towards 4088 or most probably 4138.It has to fall below 3877 to suggest failure of this view.S1:3985 S2:3920 R1:4100 R2:4165

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 70.0-69.15 levels support, expect prices to move higher towards 72.45 levels or even 75.35 .Only a fall below 68.75 would negate this bullish view. S1: 68.75 S2: 67.35 R1: 72.85 R2: 74.0

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 75.1-74.15 levels support, expect prices to move higher towards 78.05 or even towards 80.0.Only a fall below 74.0 would negate this bullish view.S1: 75.15 S2: 74.0 R1: 77.15 R2: 78.55

MCX Nickel Oct: As long as 600 levels support, expect prices to move higher towards 665 or even towards 687.Only a fall below 588 would negate this bullish view.S1: 605 S2: 585 R1: 638 R2: 655

VIEWS FOR 13th OCTOBER to 18th OCTOBER

MCX Gold (December) : Favored view expects 13885/13964 to resist and price to fall again towards 13095 levels. crucial support is at 12969 and a daily close below this level could open the way for 11597 lows. Only a rise above 14170 could force us to abandon our bearish view now.S1:13610 S2:13545 R1:13785 R2:13850

MCX Silver (December): Chances of a good pullback evident is silver futures. Resistance will be seen at 20921 followed by 21871. Fell in the bigger picture resistance to cap for one more decline towards 17354. S1:19850 S2:19500 R1:20385 R2:20750.

MCX Crude Oil (October): Favored view expects that price could stay above 3970 or 3920 for further advance towards 4070 or 4045. Fall below 3913 would hint at weakness and suggest that price could fall further towards 3843 or even 3800. S1:3880 S2:3820 R1:3990 R2:4050

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VIEWS FOR OCTOBER 10th, 2008

MCX Gold (December): Despite yesterday's volatility looks set for a break of 14333 and testing 14750 or even higher.Supports are at 13980 followed by 13872. Fall below 13975 to dent our bullish view.S1: 14000 S2: 13925 R1:14195 R2:14300

MCX Crude Oil October: Resistance at 4069 followed by 4117. Price could fall further towards 3969 or 3938.Rise past 4207 is needed to suggest further corrective rise towards 4243.S1: 3925 S2:3845 R1:4045 R2:4110

MCX Copper November :- Has met some of the medium term targets. Indicators in oversold conditions warn of a pullback. Fall towards 227 levels look likely.Can look for a potential short-term bounce higher from here.S1: 235.0 S2: 233.0 R1: 239.5 R2: 242.4

MCX Natural Gas Oct: A break of the broad range 317- 333 will decide the next directive move however the bias still remains on the downside.S1: 323 S:315 R1:338 R2: 346

MCX Lead Oct: A break below 77.85 levels would be a bearish sign and may take prices lower towards 75.25 or even 74.10 levels.Resistances now at 81.0 levels.Resistances now at 72.8-73.95 levels.A rise above 74.0 is needed to negate this bearish view. S1: 71.05 S2: 69.85 R1:73.5 R2: 74.85

MCX Nickel Oct: A break below 625 levels would be a bearish sign and may take prices lower towards 595 or even 570 levels. Resistances now at 635 levels A rise above 641 is needed to negate this bearish view.S1: 595 S2: 575 R1: 641 R2: 658

VIEWS FOR 8TH OCTOBER, 2008

MCX Gold (December): Ideally support should be seen at 13330/13345 levels now followed by 13207. Favored view now expects supports to hold for a test of 13711or even higher. Fall below 13085 to dent our bullish hopes.S1: 13425 S2: 13330 R1:13610 R2:13700

MCX Silver December: Could see a corrective bounce towards 20650 or even higher towards 21084. Supports are at 18915 followed by 18580 now.Fall below 18530 is expected to take prices lower towards 17235.S1: 19100 S2:18900 R1:19485 R2: 19635

MCX Crude Oil October: Downside target is at 4066 but there is a good chance for the price to stay above 4283 or maximum 4225 and rise in correction towards4440 or even 4480. Ideally next decline should commence after this correction. This is the favored scenario.Rise beyond 4492 could hint at further advance towards 4598.S1: 4185 S2:4125 R1:4307 R2:4368

MCX Copper Nov: Resistance to cap for a decline towards 237.S1: 267.5 S2: 264.0 R1: 273.5 R2: 277.4

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 73.45-72.85 levels support , expect corrective rallies towards 76.7 or even 78.0 levels .However a fall below 72.30 would negate this bullish view. S1: 73.4 S2: 72.2 R1:75.6 R2: 76.7

MCX Nickel Oct: As long as 680 levels support , expect prices to edge higher towards resistance levels at 715- 725 levels .. However a direct fall below 675 would negate the bullish view.S1: 670 S2: 655 R1: 695 R2: 715

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Expect bearishness to continue for the test of 314 or even 301 levels as long as 340 levels resist.S1: 320 S:312 R1:347 R2: 359

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VIEW FOR 7TH OCTOBER 2008

MCX Gold (December): Prices are consolidating in a broad range of 12672 and 13440 as of now. Supports are at 13056/13117 which could hold for a rise towards 13594/13640 , break below 12918 would negate this bullish view.S1: 13285 S2: 13215 R1:13395 R2:13465

MCX Silver December: Prices are moving in a broad range of 18635 and 19656 as of now. As long as 19571/19656 resist expect a move lower towards 18635 followed by 18465. Direct break above 19656 could see prices testing 19996/20085 which are also strong resistance levels.S1: 18900 S2:18720 R1:19300 R2: 19545

MCX Copper November :- Expect dips to find support at 259.2/261.3 for a move higher towards 277.5/280.7, break below 253.8 would negate this bullish view.S1: 263.5 S2: 259.0 R1: 269.5 R2: 273.4

MCX Crude Oil October: Mild bullish indications suggest that there could be a brief phase of upward correction towards 4382/4392, 4462 or maximum 4490.A down turn is expected to occur at any of these levels with some peaking signs. Next decline could attempt 4111 or 4063. S1: 4255 S2:4185 R1:4365 R2:4415

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 72.8-71.45 levels support , expect corrective rallies towards 76.7-78.0 levels . However a fall below 71.35 would negate this bullish view. S1: 72.75 S2: 71.60 R1:75.0 R2: 76.15

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 77.35-75.45 levels support , expect prices to stay firm and test resistance levels at 82.7 or even 84.0 levels from here. A fall below 77.0 would negate this bullish view.S1: 77.35 S2: 76.25 R1: 79.65 R2: 80.85

MCX Nickel Oct: As long as 715-725 levels resist , expect the downslide to continue towards 664-648 levels . However a rise above 730 would negate this bearish view.S1: 670 S2: 655 R1: 695 R2: 715

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Structure looks and bearish and set to touch 325 or even 315 levels as long as 350 levels resist. A rise above 355 would negate this bearish view.S1: 328 S:320 R1:343 R2: 351

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VIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM 6TH OCTOBER TO 11TH OCTOBER

MCX Gold (December): Favoured view expects a decline towards 12382 or even 12055. Corrective up ticks could be capped near 12953/13091 area.. It needs to rise past 13300 to change this bearish outlook. There are no signs as of now that suggest that price could rise past 13300.S1: 12785 S2: 12715 R1:12895 R2:12955.

MCX Silver December: Favoured view expects a decline towards 17401 or 17102 while resistance near 19645/20008 would cap bullish reactionsIt needs to rise past 20074 to give up this bearish expectation as the price could start strengthening towards 20423 or 21004 then.S1: 18900 S2:18650 R1:19220 R2: 19500

MCX Crude Oil October: Structure shows a potential for a fall towards 4253 or 4220. Resistance points near 4352 & 4400. It has to rise past 4423 to cause doubts about this bearish view as such a rise could lead it higher towards 4511. Bullish divergence in hourly oscillators suggests that there could a rise initially while above 4300.S1: 4376 S2:4324 R1:4465 R2:4500

MCX Copper November :- Minor bottoming signs at 265.0 levels our anticipated long-term target. We can expect a pullback towards 286.6/287.6 levels or even higher towards 300.3. However, fall below 268.7 could open the downside again towards 250.7/252.9 levels.S1: 273.5 S2: 268.3 R1: 281.6 R2: 285.4

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 73.8-73.2 levels support , expect corrective rallies towards 76.7-78.0 levels . However a fall below 73.0 would negate this bullish view. S1: 73.8 S2: 72.6 R1:76.15 R2: 77.25

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 79.8-79.0 levels support , expect prices to stay firm and test resistance levels at 82.7 or even 84.0 levels from hereA fall below 79.5 would negate this bullish view.S1: 80.3 S2: 79.15 R1: 82.65 R2: 83.85

MCX Nickel Oct: As long as 710-715 levels support , expect corrective rallies towards 745-755 levels .However a fall below 710 would negate this bullish view.S1: 715 S2: 703 R1: 738 R2: 752

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Structure looks and bearish and set to touch 336 or even 322 levels as long as 361-369 levels resist.A rise above 370 would negate this bearish view.S1: 338 S:330 R1:354 R2: 363

VIEWS FOR 1st OCTOBER, 2008

MCX Gold (December): Expect prices to find resistance towards 13600/13660 for a possible fall lower towards 12872/12841, however direct break above 13842 would negate this bearish view.S1: 13220 S2: 13175 R1:13335 R2:13378

MCX Silver December: Expect corrective rallies to find resistance at 20722/20805 for a move lower towards 19480 followed by 19231; break above 21720 would negate this bearish view.S1: 19950 S2:19800 R1:20250 R2: 20425

MCX Copper November :- As long as prices stay above 296.4 it could go towards 312/316 levels, which are strong resistance levels, direct break below 296.7 could see prices testing 291 followed by 288. S1: 299.9 S2: 296.4 R1: 305.0 R2: 308.5

MCX Crude Oil October: Push above 4859 would be a bullish sign and could lead the price towards 4904/4928. Supports are near 4762 & 4740. Fall below 4707 is needed to lessen the scope for this rally. Such a fall could open the way for test of supports near 4622 initially. Favoured view expects a rise while above 4702.S1: 4694 S2:4645 R1:4795 R2:4845

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 81.4-82.5 levels resist, expect prices to move lower towards 77.5 or even 75.0 levels . However a rise above 83.50 would negate this bearish view.S1: 78.8 S2: 77.6 R1:80.8 R2: 81.7

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 88.5-89.5 levels resist , expect prices to fall towards 81.0 levels or even lower towards 79.0 levels.However a rise above 90.80 would negate this bearish view.S1: 86.2 S2: 85.3 R1: 88.35 R2: 89.5

MCX Nickel Oct: Corrective Rallies are expected to find resistance in the 778-785 region for a move lower towards 730 or even 715 levels. A rise above 792 would negate this bearish view.S1: 730 S2: 718 R1: 753 R2: 768

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Expect up moves to find resistance in the 365-370 region for a move lower towards 340 levels . A rise above 376 would negate this bearish view.S1: 345 S:335 R1:363 R2: 372

VIEWS FOR 30th SEPTEMBER

MCX Gold (October): In line with our expectations. Dips to 13530/13485 to support for a break of 13940 and a possible test of 14550/14580 now. Fall below 13304 could dampen the bullish expectation.S1: 13400 S2:13350 R1:13500 R2: 13555

MCX Silver December: As expected a break below 20800 sent silver futures falling lower. Important resistance is at 21600/21650 and move above this level could induce bullish hopes for a 24090.S1: 20790 S2: 20595 R1: 21060 R2: 21200

MCX Copper November: As expected, we saw a huge fall in copper coming to our target levels at 297.20. Indicators warn of a pullback but possibilities of a further fall towards 279 looks likely. Any pullbacks could find strong resistance at 310/313 levels now.S1: 299 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 311.50

MCX Crude Oil October: While above 4498 a corrective rise towards 4600or 4650 is anticipated. Ideally the correction should end without crossing above 4700. Next decline could target levels like 4330/4252. Rise past 4700 could suggest that a stronger bullish reaction is evolving.S1: 4580 S2: 4530 R1: 4680 R2: 4725

MCX Zinc Oct: As long as 80.9-81.5 levels resist, expect prices to move lower towards 77.5 levels or even lower. However a rise above 83.30 would negate this bearish view. S1: 78.4 S2: 77.00 R1:81.50 R2: 83.10

MCX Lead Oct: As long as 87.5.5-88.5 levels resist , expect prices to fall towards 82.60 levels or even lower. However a rise above 90.80 would negate this bearish view.S1: 84.10 S2: 82.90 R1: 87.10 R2: 88.50

MCX Nickel Oct: Rallies to 790/794 could cap the upside for a fall towards 750 followed by 745 levels.It needs to rise above 804 to give up this bearish expectation.S1: 771 S2: 761 R1: 790 R2: 800

MCX Natural Gas Oct: Rallies to 350/352 could cap the upside for a fall towards 332/333 followed by 330 levels. It needs to rise above 356 to give up this bearish expectation.S1: 340 S2:336 R1:348 R2: 353

VIEWS FOR 26.09.2008

MCX SILVER :: Support is crucial at 20295 now. Favored view expects the 20185/20295 to hold for atest of 23380 in the coming sessions. Fall below 19950 to change the picture to bearish. Support: 20505, (20238 bearish), 20008, 19812. Resistance: 20860, 21060, (21385 bullish), 21546.

MCX CRUDE:: Favoured view expects a rise towards 5142 or more probably 5190. Supports are at 4890 & 4860. Break above channel resistance at 5018 should encourage bullish expectation. Bullish view would weaken if price drops below 4758. Support: 4889, (4850 bearish), 4801, 4752. Resistance: 4970, (5026 bullish), 5087, 5127.

MCX GOLD :: As expected in a consolidation mode. 12725-13445 is the broad range now. Only a fall below 12700 could turn the picture bearish. Favored view expects a rally towards 4195levels as long as 12700/12725 holds. Support: 12874, (12836 bearish), 12785, and 12725 Resistance: 12942, 12990, (13038 bullish), 13084.

MCX COPPER :: Resistances will be seen at 321 followed by 324. Direct rise above 326.50 could induce bullish hopes again for a test of 339 levels. However, favored view expects a fall towards 291 levels as long as 324/326.50 caps upside attempts. Support: 315, (312 bearish), 310.25, 308. Resistance: 318.70, 321, (323 bullish), 326.

VIEWS FOR 17.09.2008

MCX CRUDE :: Prices could attempt 4463 / 4473. It has to push above 4480 to stay bullish for
further advance towards 4517 or even 4555. Supports are at 4380 & 4330. Fall below 4320 is
needed to revive scope for further declines. Short-term view is bullish. The big picture is bearish
for a fall towards minimum 4102 and this rally would be treated as a corrective rally. Rise above
4592 could cause doubts about the bearish view.
Support: 4250, (4208 bearish), 4180, 4136.
Resistance: 4317, (4360 bullish), 4404, 4440.

MCX GOLD :: As long as 11871 / 11900 resist expect a move lower towards 11485 followed by
11405, however break above 11905 could see 11975 followed by 12020 levels.
Support: 11704, (11675 bearish), 11635, and 11585.
Resistance: 11790, 11828, (11865 bullish), 11907.

MCX SILVER :: As long as 18505 / 18585 resist expect a fall lower towards 17110 followed by 16605, however break above 18870 would negate this bearish view.
Support: 17790, (17660 bearish), 17450, 17210.
Resistance: 17999, 18160, (18375 bullish), 18605.

MCX COPPER :: Expect any corrective rallies to find resistance in the region of 324.70 / 326.80
for a lower towards 308.40 followed by 303 levels, however break above 331 would turn the
picture bullish.
Support: 314.50, (311.85 bearish), 309.95, 307.70.
Resistance: 319.65, 322, (324.80 bullish), 326.70.

VIEW FOR 16.09.2008

MCX Gold (October): Should consolidate in the range between 11460 and 11710 levels and rise higher towards 11780 or even higher towards 12004. This is the favored expectation. Fall below 11337 could dent our bullish expectations.S1: 11617 S2:11578 R1:11701 R2: 11748

MCX Silver December: Extremely volatile and showing bearish signs now. View unclear and suggest to be on the sidelines. Possible range is 17420 and 18600. S1: 18125, S2: 17890, R1: 18375, R2: 18605

MCX Crude Oil October: Projected downside targets are at 4260 & 4180. A bullish reaction towards 4320 / 4330 is favoured from the downside target area If it does not occur at 4260 or maximum 4180 and price keeps falling below 4160 then it would go for 4045. Resistance levels are at 4300 & 4320. Rise above 4330 is needed to indicate some corrective action.

MCX Copper November: Bearish now. Move below 308 could trigger a sell-off towards 285 levels now. Resistance is at 319.75 / 321 levels now. S1: 315 S2: 312 R1: 319.75 R2: 322

MCX Zinc Sept: AS long as 82.5-84.0 levels resist , expect prices to fall towards 79.5-78.0 levels. However a rise above 84.7 would cast doubts on this bearish view. S1: 80.2 S2: 79.0 R1: 82.5 R2: 84.0

MCX Lead Sept: AS long as 86.5-88.0 levels resist , expect prices to fall towards 83.5-81.0 levels. However rise above 88.5 would cast doubts on this bearish view. S1: 84.0 S2: 82.7 R1: 86.7 R2: 88.0

MCX Nickel Sept: Prices expected to find strong resistance in the 860-872 zone to move lower towards the 830 region.However a direct rise above 876 would cast doubts on this bearish view.S1: 832 S2: 820 R1: 858 R2: 870

MCX Natural Gas Sept: As long as 335-342 levels hold support, expect prices to move higher towards resistance levels which lie in the 365 region. A fall below 333 would negate this bullish view.S1: 337 S:326 R1:361 R2: 368

VIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM 15.09.2008 TO 21.09.2008

MCX Silver futures prices closed higher on Saturday. Support
will be seen at 17999, a break below could see a test of
17752. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 18342 a move
above could see prices testing 18605.
Trading Call :- Structure is bearish for a test of fractal support at 19228.rise above 20050 to hint at stronger recovery towards 20662/20725.Rise above 20804 could indicate a bullish reversal.
Support: 19360, (19200 bearish), 19060, 18900.
Resistance: 19660, 19810, (19960 bullish), 20100.

MCX Crude-oil futures closed higher on Saturday. Support
will be seen at 4580, a break below could see a test of
4542. Resistance is now likely 4645, a break above that
could test 4690 levels.
Trading Call: Dips could be held above 4518 or maximum 4493 for a test of 4575 levels again.
This looks like the more probable scenario. It needs to rise past 4610 to hint at a stronger
correction. Fall below 4480 would be a bearish sign hinting at further decline towards 4407 or
4344.
Support: 4580, (4542 bearish), 4500, 4450.
Resistance: 4645, (4690 bullish), 4725, 4762.

MCX Gold prices closed higher on Saturday. Support will be
seen at 11400, a break below could see a test of 11365.
Resistance is now likely to be seen at 11465, a move above
could see prices testing 11508 levels.
Trading Call: As expected, a strong pullback is in place. Can edge higher towards 11785-11815
levels now or even higher towards 11889 levels. Positive divergences also gives rise for a possible
test of 12409. Supports are at 11400 levels.
Support: 11400, (11365 bearish), 11324, and 11287
Resistance: 11465, 11508, (11542 bullish), 11593.

MCX Copper futures closed higher on Saturday. Immediate support
will be seen at 320, a break below could see a test of 317.5
levels. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 324.70 a move
above could see prices testing 326.50.
Trading Call: - Consolidation in the 317-325 range to be followed by a rise higher towards 333
or even higher towards 343 levels.
Support: 320, (317.50 bearish), 314.60, 312.00.
Resistance: 324.70, 326.50, (328.60 bullish), 331.20.