EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 15TH FEB. 2010

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders can buy on rise above 24674 with low of the day stop loss or 24129 whichever is lower.

Sell on fall below 24129 with high of the day stop loss or 24674 whichever is higher

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

In our previous update for 11/02/10, we had indicated that if 16383 is crossed then long positions can be undertaken.

The high registered subsequently was 16515. Traders who managed to enter had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 16421-16352 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16285.

Expect higher range of 16589 to be tested.

The 14 day RSI is moving up now which suggest that minor pullback is in process.

Important resistance point is at 16815 which could be tested if momentum increases on the upside.

 

SPOT GOLD;-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1077$ and look for rise to 1100$ or above to exit long.

Immediate resistance is at 1098$ and 1125$.

 

SPOT SILVER;-A sideways movement is being witnessed after a sharp slide. Resistance is at 15.7$-16.10$.

Support is at 15.15$-14.92$.

Failure to sustain at higher range will give a way down for fall.

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Over all volatility in the range of 78.1$-69.5$ is likely to be witnessed.

 Immediate resistance is at 75.7$.

Immediate support is at 72.5$.

 

 

 

MCX Gold April: Rise above 16617/16632 to go for 16723/16738 followed by 16770 levels. Ideally, resistance should be seen here. Supports are at 16466 followed by 16405.
S1: 16423 S2: 16343 R1: 16583 R2: 16663.

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MCX Silver March: Immediate resistance is at 24934/25093 followed by 25409 levels. Favored view expects resistance to cap for a decline towards 24063 or even lower. It has to rise above 25460 to suggest that it might not fall as per this expectation but could attempt to test 25884 or even 26280. S1: 25329 S2: 25200 R1: 25590 R2: 25720.

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MCX Copper Feb: Supports are at 312.40/313.40 levels now. A consolidation between 312.40/321.60 expected before a break higher towards 325/326 levels. Fall below 310 to dent our bullish expectation. S1: 311 S2: 308 R1: 319 R2: 323.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: While above 3305 there could be a sideways consolidation.  Resistance levels are near 3553/3576 and support is around 3390.Fall below 3390 would diminish the bullishness and could lead it to next supports at 3305 or the breakdown point at 3268.S1: 3395 S2: 3353 R1: 3473 R2: 3513.

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MCX Zinc Feb: A consolidation is expected between 98/100.25. Favored view expects a break above 102 while above 98.00.S1: 98.40 S2: 96.40 R1: 102.60 R2: 104.60

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MCX Lead Feb: Crucial support is at 96.00 now. Ideally, while below 98.50 we favour a break of 96.00 or even lower.S1: 96.40 S2: 94.40 R1: 100.40 R2: 102.40.

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MCX Nickel Feb: Important resistance at 865/867 to cap now for a pullback towards 845\850 levels. Direct rise above 865 to target 880 levels now. S1: 854 S2: 847 R1: 870 R2: 879.

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MCX Natural Gas Feb: Important resistance is at 261/263 levels now. Favored view expects resistance to be tested. Supports are at 254 followed by 252.S1: 247 S2: 240 R1: 261 R2: 269

 

VIEW FOR 10TH FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

EXPECTATION  FOR  10TH  FEB, 2010

---

MCX Gold April: A, pullback, which we have been waiting for has materialized
to 16404/16435 levels as per expectations. We expect prices to rise towards
16560 levels now, only a break of 16600 can give way for further bullish moves.
S1: 16235 S2: 16188 R1: 16420 R2: 16580.

 

---

MCX Silver March: As expected a break of 24356 took prices towards 24785-24865
levels. Support at 24373/24387 to hold for 24976. This is our favored expectation.
 Only a fall below 23848 will force us to abandon our bullish view.
S1: 24385 S2: 24255 R1: 24645 R2: 24775.

 

---

MCX Copper Feb: Strong resistance will be seen at 310/312 levels now. While
below this levels we could see a corrective decline towards 301/302 levels now.
S1: 303.60 S2: 301.40 R1: 308 R2: 310.80.

 

---

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistance will be quite strong in the 3450-3497 zones.
Expect prices to get capped here for a decline towards 3125 ideally.
Strong support will be seen at 3373 now.
S1: 3396 S2: 3356 R1: 3476 R2: 3516.

 

---

MCX Zinc Feb: As expected we saw a sharp pullback towards 98.00 levels.
Dips to be cushioned in the 96-96.50 zones for a test of 100.25.Fall below
95.40 to dent our bullish exp.
S1: 96.40 S2: 94.40 R1: 100.40 R2: 102.40.

 

---

MCX Lead Feb: Supports are at 94.68 followed by 93.80. Supports could hold
for a test of 97.35-50.
S1: 93.40 S2: 91.40 R1: 97.40 R2: 99.40.

 

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Strong resistance will be seen in the 830-31 zone now break of
this level will once again take prices higher towards 865-75 zone.
Supports are at 813-815.
S1: 815 S2: 809 R1: 829 R2: 834.

 

---

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Rallies to 253-54 levels to be sold for a target of 235,
stop at 259.
S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 254 R2: 260

 

---

INTERNATIONAL :: 

SPOT GOLD:-

 

Yesterday’s buy above 1079$ got triggered. Use rise to 1086$-1095$ to take profit.

Support will be at 1064$-1052$.

A minor pullback is being witnessed which can carry towards the red color line before a further slide.

Only a rise and close above 1125$ can bring about a reversal.

 

 

SPOT SILVER :

 

Exit short for the time being.

Expect higher range of 15.6$-15.95$ to be tested.

Corrective dip to 15.3$-15$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14.92$.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16383.

Intra-day traders can wait for rise above 16393 and when it falls below 16393 then sell with high above 16393 as the stop loss.

Support will be at 16220.

Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.

 The 14 day RSI is showing intention to move higher but price not yet supporting convincing

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-

 

Cover short positions on dip to 24428 or below as the opportunity arises.

Expect a rise towards the resistance of 24731-24948.

The 14 day RSI is trying to move up. ADX is also moving up still and when it turns then that can show short covering process.

Sell on fall below 24124 with high of the day stop loss

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-

 

A recovery was seen yesterday.

Expect volatility to be seen in the band of 78$-68$ in near term.

RSI is trying to move up therefore a rise towards 76$ is possible.

Corrective dip to 72$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 70.

VIEWS FOR 9TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Supports are at 16160/16206 to hold for rise towards 16573/16603 levels now. Fall below 16069 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 16196 S2: 16116 R1: 16356 R2: 16436.   MCX Silver March: Crucial support is at 23990 and while above here we can expect a pullback towards 25547 levels. However, break below 23943 to drag prices lower towards 22626 ideally. S1: 24101 S2: 23971 R1: 24361 R2: 24492.   MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 295.30/296.30 to hold for a pullback towards 312/314 levels now. Fall below 292.20 could dent our bullish expectations. S1: 297 S2: 293 R1: 305 R2: 309.   MCX Crude Oil Feb: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3175 or even 3105. Resistance levels are spread between 3406 / 3448.It has to rise past 3505 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3324 S2: 3284 R1: 3404 R2: 3444.   MCX Zinc Feb: Supports at 93.75 followed by 93.10 to hold for 96.25 or 97.80. Fall below 92.30 will force us to abandon our bullish expectations. S1: 92.40 S2: 90.40 R1: 96.40 R2: 98.40   MCX Lead Feb:  Rise above 93.75 / 93.85 will reinforce bullish expectations for 97.45 / 97.50.    S1: 90.20 S2: 88.20 R1: 94.20 R2: 96.20.   MCX Nickel Feb: Supports at 795 / 800 to hold well for a test of 825 levels. Fall below 795 could hint at a weakness. S1: 801 S2: 792 R1: 818 R2: 826.   MCX Natural Gas Feb: Fall below 250 to confirm further weakness towards 235 levels or even lower. S1: 248 S2: 242 R1: 264 R2: 272     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::   Resistance will be at 1074$-1078$. Sell on rise to 1066-1070$ with a stop loss of 1078$. Sell on fall below 1060$ with high of the day stop loss.     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::     Keep a stop loss of 15.4$ to hold short. Cover short positions on dip from current price to 14.6$. A rise and close above 15.4$ can bring about a near term pullback.     NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::    Sell on rise to 5.51$ or above with a stop loss of 5.7$. Buy on rise above 5.7$ with low of the day stop loss.     NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 74$. Cover the same on dip from current price to 68.5$ as the opportunity rises. Expect volatility in the range of 78.1$-68$.     TRADING  STRATEGY  ::   GOLD  MCX  APRIL  ::    Expect higher range of 16370-16421 to be tested. Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 16370 and when it falls below 16370 then sell with high above 16370 as the stop loss. Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 25000. Look for dip to 24221 or below to cover short position. Sell on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss. If the stop loss and resistance of 25000 is crossed on closing basis then we could find a pullback rise towards 26000.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 8TH FEBRUARY 2010

VIEWS  FOR  THE  WEEK  STARTING  FROM  8TH  FEBRUARY 2010

---

MCX Gold April: Price could rise in correction towards 16627/16688 area before next decline towards 15868 chances of an extension to 16871/16843 also looks likely.

S1: 16206 S2: 16126 R1: 16366 R2: 16446. 

 

---

MCX Silver March: Supports at 23750/24070 to hold for a test of 24340-24520 or even higher before the next decline towards 23158 or ideally 22585/21927. Rise above 25300 could neutralise our bearish expectations S1: 24020 S2: 23730 R1: 24454 R2: 24585

 

---

MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 300/297 to hold for a pullback towards 317/319 levels now.

Fall below 296.85 could dent our bullish expectaions. S1: 296 S2: 292 R1: 304 R2: 308

 

---

MCX Crude Oil December: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3232 or even 3160. Resistance levels are spread between 3466 / 3510. It has to rise past  3567 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3334 S2: 3425 R1: 3545 R2: 3585.

 

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Could find resistance at 816/819 levels now. A break of 800 can create panic selling pressure towards 780 levels. This is our favored view. While below 816 target 804 and 784. Unexpected break of 826 can change this bearish expectations.

S1:804 S2:786 R1: 816 R2: 826

 

---

MCX Lead Feb: Ideally resisitance at 93.75 could drag prices again to 90.50 or even to 85 levels now. While below 94.10 target 92/91.Break above 96 can change this bearish picture. S1: 92 S2: 90.70 R1: 94.10 R2: 96.10.

 

---

MCX Zinc Feb: while trading below 95.60 levels sell for a target of 92. Break of 96 can negate this bearish view. S1: 92.10 S2: 91.50 R1: 95.90 R2: 97.30.

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::

 

A minor pullback to 1075$-1084$ can be used.
For the time being traders can cover short positions at 1059$-1043$.

Sell again on fall below 1043$ with high of the day stop loss

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

 Cover short positions at current level or below.
Sell further on fall below 14.6$.

Resistance will be at 15.4$.

A minor pullback is possible for immediate near term if the low of 14.6$ is not violated.

Expect higher range of 15.47$-15.8$ to be tested.

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::

 

A range bound movement in the band of 6.10$-5$ continues.
Expect trading up move on rise and close above 5.6$.

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::

 

Cover short positions if any from current level to 68$ as the opportunity arises or hold short with a stop loss of 74$.
Resistance will be at 72.5$-74$. Support will be at 68$.

 

LEAD  LME  ::

 

The retracement of 1977$ has been tested last week.
Support will be at 1915$.

On further fall below 1915$, expect a slide towards 1760$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 1549$.

Resistance will be at 2175$-2265$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 24555 and cover the same at current price and on dip to 24222-24103.
Sell further on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss.

Expect higher range of 24443-24561 to be tested.

ADX is moving higher a shown in the chart therefore the downside momentum could still be in place.

 

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL  :: 

 

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 16244-16172 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below 15963 with high of the day stop loss.

A positive divergence on 14 day RSI is being witnessed now therefore if the low of 15963 is not violated from here on then we could see a near term pullback rise at least.

Sell further on fall and close below 15963 with high of the day stop loss. Higher range of 16357-16429 could be tested.

 

USD INR  :: 

 

A breakout has been witnessed. In our expect updates, our expectation was towards near term weaker rupee and the same has been witnessed.
Resistance will be at 46.9-47.10$.

A further breakout and close above 47.10$ can bring about a rally for Dollar.

Support for Dollar will be at 46-45.9.

Broadly a wider range of 47.10-45 and if a breakout is witnessed further in near term then significant weakness could be seen in Rupee. Expect resistance and profit booking on Dollar at 47.

VIEWS FOR 5TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX

MCX Gold April: Resistance at 16312/16358 to cap any rallies for a test of 15860/16060 now. S1: 16050 S2: 15780 R1: 16320 R2: 16430. MCX Silver March: Resistances at 24600 followed by 24850 now should cap for further decline towards 23700. S1: 24050 S2: 23670 R1: 24600 R2: 24960 MCX Copper Feb: While below 298 it is expected to decline edge lower towards 289/280 levels now. Unexpected rise above 300 to begin a corrective up move towards 306 levels. S1: 287 S2: 278 R1: 298.70 R2: 306. MCX CrudeOilFeb:Resistance at 3446 followed by 3495 could cap for test of important support and break below 3378 targeting 3306. S1:3360 S2:3300 R1:3470 R2:3520 MCX Zinc Feb: Resistance at 95.10 followed by 95.85 to cap for a further decline towards 92.50. From there a strong recovery is expected. S1: 93.20 S2: 92.50 R1: 95.1 R2: 95.85 MCX Lead Feb:  Resistance at 92.30 followed by 93.05 to cap for fall towards 89.75. Again a very strong recovery is expected from there. S1: 91.0 S2: 89.8 R1: 93.5 R2: 94.5. MCX Nickel Feb: Next support is at 818/20 now. We still hope this support could hold fror a break above 875. Unexpected break of 816 could drag prices towards 780 levels. S1: 817 S2: 801 R1: 838 R2: 845. MCX Natural Gas Feb: Resistance at 257 followed by 262 to cap for fall towards 236. Break below 236 will be very bearish.S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 259 R2: 265   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::     The support of 1074$ was violated yesterday. Expect Gold now to slide towards 1014$-953$-888$. Gold slid to 1015$ is likely and will move below the 1000$ mark in time to come. Only a breakout and close above 1125$ can negative the possibility of Gold moving down to test each of the level 1014$-953$-888$ gradually.   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::   Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.4$. The 38.2% retracement of the entire rise from 8.63$ to 19.41$ which was at 15.03$was tested. The long term trend line shown has also got violated. Silver is likely to move down all the way to test the bottom in weeks and months to come with volatility of lower top and lower bottom formation. A bounce from either of the retracement level of 15$-13.9$-12.7$ could be witnessed for a pullback rally to make lower top.   NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::   Exit long and sell on rise to 74.4$-76.5$ as the opportunity arises. Expect the lower range of 71$-68$ to be tested. Only a breakout and close above 78.10$ can prevent it from a slide towards 71$-68$   TRADING  STRATEGY  ::   GOLD  MCX  APRIL  ::    Sell on rise to 16238-16430 and exit long with a stop loss of 16581. Expect lower range of 15896-15703 to be tested.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::    Sell on rise to 24827-25279 with a stop loss of 25608. Expect lower range of 24046-23594 ADX is moving up with the fall with indicates downside momentum. Important support of 25935 has been violated therefore major medium to long term reversal has been confirmed. Even if the rally come in near term the rise can make a potential lower top only

VIEWS FOR 4TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Minor support is at 16540 followed by important support at 16435 levels now. Rallies to 16720/16735 to cap upside attempts now for a fall towards 16420/16435.
S1: 16540 S2: 16420 R1: 16720 R2: 16830.

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MCX Silver March: Break below 25860 took prices lower again. Good resistance will  be seen at 25800-25860 levels now. Favoured view expects downside to extend towards 24610/24767 while below 25861-25940.S1: 25250 S2: 24770 R1: 25860 R2: 26120

---

MCX Copper Feb: Strong weekly supports are at 291/292 levels now. Ideally these levels
could hold for a retracement higher from here.  Failure to do so could drag prices even lower. S1: 301 S2: 297 R1: 308 R2: 310.5.

---

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Important support is at 3535 levels now followed by 3490. Unexpected fall below 3442 will force us to abandon any chance of bullishness towards 3625.

S1: 3535 S2: 3490 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

---

MCX Zinc Feb: Ideally, 94.00/95.00 to hold for a pullback higher again.

S1: 95.6 S2: 94.80 R1: 97.6 R2: 98.9.

---

MCX Lead Feb:  Support at 91 look vulnerable and could be broken. Subsequently we could see a retracement higher.S1: 92.6 S2: 91.0 R1: 95 R2: 96.5.

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Still in bullish consolidation now. Only fall below 829 could dash our
bullish hopes for a rally towards 875.S1: 838 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860

---

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259,
which are strong resistance levels and prices, prices, could retrace from these levels.
S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::

 

 Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1098$ and use rise to 1121$-1132$ to take profit.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on close above 1125$.

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.93$.

Cover the same on dip to 16.10$-15.82$.

Sell on rise to 16.53$-16.77$ with a stop loss of 16.93$.

 

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  :: 

 

A range of movement has been in a wider band of 6.11$-5$.

Traders can buy on rise and close above 5.56$ with low of the day stop loss.

Support will be at 5.35$.

On fall below 5.35$, expect the range of 5$ to be tested again.

A minor lower top and lower bottom formation is being witnessed.

 

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  :: 

 

Traders can take profit at current level or above to 78.10$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect a sideways movement or a minor correction.

Support is at 76.5$.

Fresh trading buy can be undertaken on rise and close above 78.10$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL :: 

 

Hold long with a stop loss of  16560 or exit long on rise to 16688-16815. Re-enter long on rise and close above 16815 with low of the day stop loss.

 

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Sell on rise to 25780-26101 with a stop loss of 26340.
Expect lower range of 25221-24900 to be tested

 

ENJOY  TRADING  !!!!!

 

LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR REAL TIME CALLS

 

EXPECTATION FOR 3RD FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-Resistance will be at 16.9$-17$.

Support will be at 16.52$-16.3$.

Expect a sideways movement on the immediate near front. Unless a breakout and close above 17$ is witnessed.

Sell on fall below 16.5$ with high of the day stop loss

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Indicated to buy above 75.5$ in our last couple of updates.

Crude rose to a high of 77.41$. Traders who managed to implement a buy had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 76.5$-75$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 74$.

Expect high range of 78.3$-80.3$ to be tested which can be used for profit booking

 

SPOT GOLD:-Corrective dip to 1110-1102$ can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 1098$.

Expect higher range of 1122$-1130$ to be tested.

Sell on fall below 1098$ with high of the day stop loss

 

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions for the time being on dip to 26103-25910 as the opportunity arises.

Expect higher range of 26253-26446 to be tested

 

GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Corrective dip to 16702-16614 can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 16560.

Expect higher range of 16841-16929 to be tested

 

 

MCX Gold April:Resistance at 16762-16822 level. Ideally, this zone should cap for decline
toward 16417/16462 level. S1: 16674 S2: 16594 R1: 16834 R2: 16915

---

 

 

MCX Silver March: We can expect a consolidation in the 25672-26170 zones now followed
by a rise towards 26903 levels. Only a fall below 25454 to cause  doubts on our bullish view.
S1: 25931 S2: 25801 R1: 26192 R2: 26321

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MCX Copper Feb: Ideally, supports at 310.50 levels to hold for a move towards 322. This is our favored view.

Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view. This is our favored view. Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view.
S1: 311.60 S2: 307.60 R1: 319.60 R2: 323.60.

---

 

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: An important resistance at 3572 has been tested. Supports are now at 3500 followed

by important support at 3460/3465 now. Ideally a consolidation should take place before the next move.
S1: 3514 S2: 3474 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

---

 

 

MCX Zinc Feb: Supports are at 98.15 followed by 97.20 now. While above 96, a pullback towards 103 looks likely.

S1: 97.60 S2: 95.60 R1: 101.6 R2: 103.60.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Supports are at 94.30 followed by 93.05. Favored view expects supports to hold for a test of

99.35/50 levels while supports hold. S1: 95.15 S2: 93.15 R1: 99.15 R2: 101.15.

---

 

 

MCX Nickel Feb: Strong support is seen in the 826-830 levels. Ideally, this zone to hold for a rise towards 875.

This is our favored view. Fall below 823 to dent our bullish view. S1: 840 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860.

---

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259, which are strong

resistance levels and prices, could retrace from these levels. S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

VIEWS FOR 2ND FEB. 2010 - MCX & COMEX

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 25858-25600 and buy with a stop loss of 25290.

After buying  use rise to 26327-26585 to exit long.

A pullback could be witnessed.

A rise toward the earlier bottom which was violated can be tested which is at 26602.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The 14 day RSI has exited the oversold zone with a strong positive candle.

Corrective dip to 16524-16387 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16290.

Sell further only on fall and close below 16200.

Expect higher range of 16757-16894 to be tested.

 

 

 MCX Gold April: Dips to 16515 / 16470 likely to find support for pullbacks  towards 16800 / 16846 levels Fall below 16260 to negate this bullish view. S1: 16540 S2: 16460 R1: 16700 R2: 16780.

 

 MCX Silver March: Pullback towards 26491 or even higher towards 26773 looks likely now as long as prices are above 25380.S1: 25940 S2: 25810 R1: 26200 R2: 26330

 

MCX Copper Feb: Dips to 313.20 / 312.10 favored to find support for a move higher  towards 321.75 /324.80 levels. Fall below 308.40 to raise doubts now.  S1: 312 S2: 308 R1: 320 R2: 324

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Dips to 3443 levels likely to find support for a move higher towards 3538 / 3566 levels. Fall below 3360 to negate this view.  S1: 3395 S2: 3355 R1: 3470 R2: 3510.

 

MCX Zinc Feb: While above 96.20, expect rallies to 103.2 levels. Supports are  at 98.50 levels. S1: 98.70 S2: 97.70 R1: 100.6 R2: 101.70.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Ideally A pullback towards 98 looks likely while above 91.  S1: 94.4 S2: 93.2 R1: 96.70 R2: 97.7.

 

MCX Nickel Feb: While above 820, expect pullbacks towards 850 levels.     S1: 825 S2: 815 R1: 840 R2: 855

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 /247 to find support for a move higher  towards 255, which are strong resistance levels and prices,could retrace  from these levels. S1: 247 S2: 244 R1: 253 R2: 256

SPOT GOLD:-

Expect a near term rise towards 1116$-1127$.
Corrective dip to 1096-1084$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1074$ to exit at 1116$-1127$.selling can only be seen below 1074

SPOT SILVER: 

Support is at 16.3$-15.7$.
Expect a pullback towards 16.87$-17.10$.
Traders short can cover the same at current price or below

2010 expectation of comex gold,lead,copper.alluminum and nymex crude with natural gas

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON LME NICKLE FOR THE YEAR 2010:-


Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones

MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-


We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010

MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-

We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.

MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-

Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
 
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-


MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.


2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.


NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-


We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.

The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side


MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)



LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again


MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).

VIEWS & EXPECTATION FOR 28TH JANUARY OF MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold Feb: Resistance at 16569/16599 to cap for a decline towards 16296 levels or even lower towards 15993 now. Unexpected, rise above 16751. 16751 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 16361 S2: 16282 R1: 16522 R2: 16602.   MCX Silver March: Important resistance is at 26563/26610 now. Ideally prices could get capped for a decline towards 25500/25532. MCX Silver March: A strong retracement could occur from these levels.  S1: 25941 S2: 25811 R1: 26202 R2: 26331.   MCX Copper Feb: Strong resistance is at 337.25/338.30 levels now. This should cap for 321.70 levels now. S1: 327.80 S2: 323.80 R1: 335.75 R2: 339.75.   MCX Crude Oil Feb: Further scope of a decline towards 3436 exists while below 3531. S1: 3405 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525.   MCX Zinc Jan: While above 100 look for a bounce towards 104 levels.   S1: 100.20 S2: 98.40 R1: 103.90 R2: 105.80.   MCX Lead Jan: While above 95 look for 99 levels. Fall below 95 to dent our bullish exp. S1: 93.10 S2: 91.20 R1: 97.80 R2: 100.80   MCX Nickel Jan: Ideally, 825-30 to hold for a rally towards 850-70. Direct fall below 820 to drag prices lower.  S1: 826 S2: 821 R1: 840 R2: 848   MCX Natural Gas Feb: Chart look bearish for a fall towards 230/221. Rise above 249-252 to negate the bearish view. S1: 235 S2: 227 R1: 252 R2: 259     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 1105$ to hold short positions. Cover the same at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises. Sell further on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss.   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of  17$. Support will be at 16.3$-16.08$-15.7$. Look for dip to the support to cover short positions.   NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::    Support is at 74$-73.8$. Hold short positions with a stop loss of 75.5$. Sell further on fall and close below 72.5$. If the stop loss of 75.5$ is crossed then traders can buy on rise above 75.5$ with low of the day stop loss.   GOLD  MCX  FEB ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16572. Sell further on fall and close below 16450 with high of the day stop loss. Traders can take chances to buy on rise above 16572 with low of the day stop loss.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::   Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 26947. Sell on rise to 26281-26541 with a  stop loss of 26947. Expect lower range of 25810-25550 to be tested.   ENJOY  TRADING !!!!

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VIEWS FOR 27TH JANUARY 2010 - TECHNICAL VIEWS MCX & COMEX

SPOT GOLD:-The trend violation was shown yesterday and now the zoomed chart is shown. Resistance is at 1104$. Traders short can keep a stop loss of 1104$. Buy on rise above 1005$ with low of the day stop loss. Cover short positions at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss or 1005$ whichever is higher   NYMEX CRUDE:-Support is at 74$-73.8$. Sell on fall below 73.8 with high of the day stop loss. Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss 75.50$ to hold short. Traders can buy on rise above 75.5 with low of the day stop loss or 73.8 whichever is lower   TIN LME:-A negative divergence has been witnessed on 14 day RSI, Support will be 17525$. On fall below 172225 expect a slide further. Traders can take profit on rise from  current level of 17630-18820$.   LEAD LME :-A negative divergence on 14 week RSI is in place. Trend line breakdown has been witnessed. Expect lower levels of 2106$-1982$ to be tested. Sell on rise to 2299$-2375$ with a stop loss of 2500$.   NICKLE LME :-A negative divergence on RSI has been witnessed. Overall use rise to 18650-18875 to exit long positions. Sell on fall below 17975 with high of the day stop loss. Support is at 17225$. On fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a significant slide.   SPOT GOLD ALERT:- The trend continues to receive hammering is seen consistently held below 1104. Once above 1104, which is more favoured today,expect rally till atleast 1114, Intraday spikes to 1131 region also cannot be ruled out, but expect liquidation pressure from as early as 1114 or 1126 to turn back lower again to the bear camp, which is now pointing towards 980, once below 1074   Watch out for: • China steps up measures to curb economic growth • Australia reports faster than expected inflation. AUD strengthens • German CPI • US FOMC Rate decision • US Weekly Crude Inventory Data   MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 16350. Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16572. Sell further on fall and close below 16350 with high of the day stop loss   MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 27325. Cover short position on dip to 26612-26676 as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 26600 with high of the day stop loss or 26947 whichever is higher         MCX Gold Feb: Resistance is at 16547/16562 now. Break and close above here could result in a retracement towards 16742/16787 levels now. However, fall below 16293 to cause doubts on this view. Such a fall could drag prices sharply lower towards 16082 or even lower towards 15662.S1: 16383 S2: 16303 R1: 16545 R2: 16625.     MCX Silver March: Resistance is at 27530/27562. Rise above this level can retrace towards 28263 levels. However, failure to cross the resistance could   the resistance could drag prices lower towards 25570 or 25252 now. S1: 26685 S2: 26555 R1: 26945 R2: 27075.     MCX Copper Feb: Crucial support at 339.80. While below here still expect break above 351 and test of 356.40/357.40.  S1:341.20 S2:337.20 R1:349.20 R2:353.20.     MCX Crude Oil Feb: Failure to cross-resistance at 3491-3508 to pressure prices lower towards 3391-3403 levels. However, direct rise above 3508. Above 3508 to take prices higher towards 3577-3588. S1: 3437 S2: 3397 R1: 3517 R2: 3557.     MCX Zinc Jan: While above 104.75 look for a bounce towards 109 levels.  S1: 105.40 S2: 103.40 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.20.     MCX Lead Jan: While below 100.50 look for a 105.25 levels. Fall below 100.25 to dent our bullish exp. S1: 100.70 S2: 99.20 R1: 104.70 R2: 106.70     MCX Zinc Jan: While above 104.75 look for a bounce towards 109 levels.  S1: 105.40 S2: 103.40 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.20.     MCX Nickel Jan: Ideally, 825-30 to hold for a rally towards 878-80. Direct fall below 825 to drag prices lower.  S1: 841 S2: 836 R1: 856 R2: 862     MCX NaturalGas Feb: Dip to 260/258 to find support for move higher toward 276/282 level. Fall below 256 to negate the bullish view. S1:262 S2:256 R1:273 R2:2

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 25TH JANUARY, 2010

SPOT SILVER:-Support is around 16.7$.

A fall and close below 16.7$ can bring about a slide down towards 16.09$-15.7$ at least.

Traders who are holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 17.5$.

 

SPOT GOLD:-

Sell further on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.

Cover short positions for the time being at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises.

Resistance will be at 1107$-1118$. A rise above 1118$ can bring about a near term trading pullback.

An attempt to come above the red color trend line will be made before surrendering down again.

TINLME:-A negative divergence has been witnessed on 14 day RSI,

Support will be 17525$.

On fall below 172225 expect a slide further.

Traders can take profit on rise from  current level of 17630-18820$.

 

LEAD LME:-A negative divergence on 14 week RSI is in place. Trend line breakdown has been witnessed.

Expect lower levels of 2106$-1982$ to be tested.

Sell on rise to 2299$-2375$ with a stop loss of 2500$.

 

NICKLE LME:-A negative divergence on RSI has been witnessed.

Overall use rise to 18650-18875 to exit long positions.

Sell on fall below 17975 with high of the day stop loss.

Support is at 17225$. On fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a significant slide.

 

ZINC LME:-A trend line breakdown was seen on the chart along with the RSI existing overbought zone which indicates near term slide or sideways movement.

Sell on fall below 2265$ with high of the day stop loss.

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 2615$.

Overall use rise to 2414$-2580$ to exit long positions.

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 27325.

Sell on rise to 26868-27135 with a  stop loss of 27325.

Cover short positions if any on dip to 26410-26143.

A close below 25935 could bring about a sustain slide.

We could find recovery from the lower range of 26410-26143 range.

A support in the range of 26600-25934 is visisble.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 16350.

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16550.

Sell further on fall and close below 16350 with high of the day stop loss

 

MCX  VIEWS  ::

 

MCX Gold Feb: A pullback to 16722/16752 or even higher towards 16873 looks likely while above 16374. 
S1: 16407 S2: 16327 R1: 16567 R2: 16647.

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MCX Silver March: Resistance at 27323 followed by 27638 levels now. Ideally, supports are at 26803/26850
to hold for a rally towards the above- mentioned levels.    S1: 26610 S2: 26480 R1: 26870 R2: 27000.

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MCX Copper February: While below 337.50 we can expect a pullback towards 347.70/348.70 levels.
S1: 337 S2: 333 R1: 345 R2: 349.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistance at 3450 followed by 3475 to cap for a test of crucial support at 3384.
This is our favored view. Rise above 3522 could diminish bearish expectations.
S1: 3405 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525.

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MCX Zinc Jan: Pullbacks to 110.00/111.90 looks likely above 107 now. 
S1: 105.40 S2: 103.50 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.40.

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MCX Lead Jan: Ideally A pullback towards 104.50/106.40 looks likely while above 102. 
S1: 101.20 S2: 99.70 R1: 104.80 R2: 106.80.

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MCX Nickel Jan:Supports at 841 followed by 836 now. Failure to hold support here could dent
bullish expectation for test of 905/915 or even higher. S1: 841 S2: 836 R1: 854 R2: 859

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VIEWS FOR 21ST JANUARY 2010

MCX Gold Feb:  Pullback to 16749/16764 looks likely while below 16560.
Big picture looks quite weak now for a fall towards 16120/16270 while rallies to
17020/17169 caps. S1: 16600   S2: 16520   R1: 16760 R2: 16840.

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MCX Silver March: Resistances are at 28136/28182 followed by 28414/28492 now.
 Ideally resistance to cap for decline towards 27144/27175 levels now.
 S1: 27680 S2: 27550 R1: 27940 R2: 28070.

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MCX Copper Feb: Rallies to 347.60/348.60 to cap for a decline towards 334.35/326.20.
 This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 349.65 can change the momentum.
S1: 340 S2: 338.50 R1: 346.50 R2: 349.50

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MCX Crudeoil Feb: Ideally 3630/3660 resistance to cap for a decline towards 3560 followed by 3460 now.
Break of 3652 can negate this bearish momentum.
S1: 3570 S2: 3500 R1: 3645 R2: 3668

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MCX Nickel Jan: Prices to trade between 860 - 880 now. Break of either levels can decide the momentum.
S1: 860 S2: 845 R1: 879 R2: 887

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MCX Lead Jan: Holds crucial support at 103.20, if 103 holds expect the prices to recover towards 107/109.
Momentum bearish.S1: 105 S2: 103.50 R1: 107 R2:109.80

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MCX Zinc Jan: If holds below 114, prices to target 109. Unexpected break of 114.50 can negate this bearish view.
S1: 110.50 S2: 109 R1: 113.80 R2: 114.60

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MCX Naturalgas Jan: Pullbacks to 247 to hold for a rise towards 260/275 now. Break of 240 can change this bullish momentum.
S1: 250.50 S2: 245 R1: 262 R2: 267

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STARATERGY:-

The trend has turned down.

Cover all long positions at market price or rise to Rs. 28029-28375-28982 as opportunity arises.

Sell at market price with stop loss at Rs. 28030.

Expect prices to test lower range of Rs. 27422-27076

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

The trend has turned down.

Cover all long positions at market price or rise to Rs. 16759-16856-17032 as opportunity arises.

Sell at market price with stop loss at Rs. 16789.

Expect prices to test lower range of Rs. 16573-16466