MCX Gold Feb: Resistance are at 16923/16937 or even higher to 16967 to cap the upside for a decline towards 16624/16654 levels.Only a fall below 16624 could turn the picture clearly bearish. S1: 16772 S2: 16692 R1: 16932 R2: 17012.
MCX Silver March: Supports are seen at 28030 followed by 27861. Resistances are at 28475 followed by 28659.Resistances, to cap for a decline towards supports. S1: 28145 S2: 28015 R1: 28405 R2: 28535.
MCX Copper Feb: Resistances are at 346.50/347.50 to cap for a decline towards 334.40. This is our favored view.Only rise above 351.60/352.60 will force us to abandon our bearish view. S1: 336.85 S2: 332.85 R1: 344.85 R2: 348.85.
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Decline expected towards 3516/3493 area or more ideally towards 3452/3429. Corrective up ticks could be resisted near 3612/3635.Price needs to rise above 3676 to give up this bearish expectation. S1: 3536 S2: 3496 R1: 3616 R2: 3656.
MCX Zinc Jan: While above 111.0 expect rallies to target 115.0 levels. S1: 112.00 S2: 111.00 R1: 114.0 R2: 115.00.
MCX Lead Jan: While above 110.40, expect rallies to target 114.0 levels. S1:110.60 S2: 109.50 R1: 112.70 R2: 113.60.
MCX Nickel Jan: While above 830, expect rallies to target 870 levels. S1: 840 S2: 830 R1: 863 R2: 875
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Break of the range 264 / 250 to decide next directive move. S1: 257 S2: 253 R1: 265 R2: 270
SPOT GOLD :-Range of movement is likely to be 1162$-1118$.
Resistance will be at 1146$-1151$-1162$.
Support will be at 1130$-1128$-1118$.
Weakness could be witnessed on fall and close below 1118$.
Traders short can keep a stop loss of 1147$. Traders long can keep a stop loss of 1130$. Alternatively, sell on rise to 1151$ or above with a stop loss of 1169$.
Sell on fall below 1118$ with a stop loss of 1147$.
SPOT SILVER:-Support is at 18.2$-18$.
A fall and close below 18$ can resume a downward move to test the trend line shown in the chart which is round 17.2$. The higher bottom is placed at 16.7$.
Resistance will be at 18.8$-19.42$.
Overall view would be to exit long positions on rise from current price of 18.36$ to the resistance levels
USD INR:-A positive divergence on 14 Day RSI has been witnessed which indicates that near term weakness in Rupee is likely.
If the support of 45.28 is not violated then we could price Rupee getting weak towards 46.75.
A breakout and close above 47.10 would mean a significant strength for Dollar and significant weakness for Rupee.
For the time being it looks that short on Dollar need to get covered
Sell further Dollar only below 45. Alternatively, when it come up towards 46.7-47.10 then selling can be considered with stop loss of 45.10.
A near term weakness in Rupee is possible towards 46.76-47.10
LME COPPER:-The red color horizontal line shows the earlier support offering resistance and vice versa is shown in the chart.
The rise is within the Raff Regression Channel.
The 14 day RSI is showing a negative divergence for the rally for some time now.
The RSI is managing to remain above the 50 mark and holding the rising trend within the channel all along the rise.
Immediate support is at 7200$.
A fall and close below 7200$ can bring about a slide down to test the lower channel line which is around 6900$-6800$.
A first shot in the oversold zone from here on would confirm a reversal and the high as the peak for some time.
Subsequent pullback and if RSI hits overbought then it is more likely to make lower top.
Short term profit booking is suggested on rise from current price to 7900$ in time days to come.
ZINC LME:-The weekly chart shows the exit of 14 Weeks RSI from the overbought zone.
We had seen 2 weeks back inverted hammer which indicates that till the high of the inverted hammer not crossed further upside will be not be seen.
Last week, we saw a negative candle movement on weekly chart.
Trend line support is at lower level of 2400$.
A fall and close below 2400$ will begin the downward or a sideways movement. The RSI is likely to fall if 2400$ is breached.
Resistance is at 2615$, 2730$ and 2900$. If the trend is not violated then we could find recovery pullback to test the trend line. In that case, negative divergence on RSI could begin to develop. Broad objective can be to exit long positions on the rise.
ALLUMINUM LME:-The 38.2% retracement level of the fall from 3375$ to 1270$ has been tested. The 38.2% retracement level is placed at 2322$.
Support is at 2210$.
The 14 weeks RSI is in overbought zone.
A fall and close below 2210$ will begin a correction in ALUMINUM.
Resistance will be at 2360$-2390$.
A rise and close above 2390$ can bring about a rise towards the 50% retracement level which is placed at 2568$.
The trend on weekly chart is up and can turn down on fall and close below 2210$. If the weekly close is below 2210$ then it confirm a near term correction or sideways movement.
NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has hit the oversold zone when the price was 16305$ on 27/11/09 giving opportunity to buy in next few days at lower range. Exit oversold zone on 10/12/09 at 16300$.
Subsequently, NICKEL moved higher and hit the overbought zone on 24/12/09 at 18275$
NICKEL on this occasion worked perfectly on RSI. We had indicated buy around the same time of 16300$ and expect the rise to test 19675$ against which NICKEL attained 19240$.
Support now will be at 17225$.
Resistance will be at 19000$-19700$.
Overall use rise to take profit at 19000$-19700$ and re-enter long on close above 19700$.
A breakout and close above 19700$ in days to come can take NICKEL to test back the recent peak of 21150$ and moved further above it as well.
A fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a slide to test back the low of 15100$.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Sell on fall below 16760 with high of the day stop loss or 16925.
Inside bar has been witnessed on Friday. The In Side Bar range is 16925-16762. Either side rise or fall below the range would offer trading opportunity for the day.
The wide range of movement is 17210 -16650.
ADX is falling down therefore the movement is likely to be narrow.
Bollinger Bands are contracting.
Traders needs to wait for expansion to get directional movement
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.
Buy on dips to Rs. 28240 – 28070 with stop loss of Rs. 27865.
Expect a rise to Rs. 28350 – 28515.
As the trend is up, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 28075 and when it rises above Rs. 28075, then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 28075 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 28240 – Rs. 28515 range or above
