EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 22nd MARCH 2010

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  :: 

 

Exit long on rise to 1111$-1121$ as the opportunity arises.

Sell on fall below 1088$ with high of the day stop loss.

Sell on rise to 1121$ with a stop loss of 1133$.

Buy on rise and close above 1133$ with low of the day stop loss.

 

INTERNATIONAL SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

Sell on rise to 17.09$-17.26$ with a stop loss of 17.62$.

Expect lower range of 16.76$-16.26$ to be tested.

 

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS ::

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 4.31$.

 Support of the gap is likely to be witnessed for some bounce.

Support will be at 4.10$-3.96$.

Cover short positions at 4.13$-4.09$ as the opportunity arises or hold short with the indicated stop loss.

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::

 

Sell on rise to 80.9$-81.95$ with a stop loss of 83.16$.

Support will be at 80$-79$.

Sell on fall below 79$ with high of the day stop loss.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL ::

 

The buy call stop loss of 16638 was violated and the sell below 16638 got triggered. The low registered on Friday was 16431. Traders who managed to sell on fall below 16638 had the opportunity to benefit.

Sell on rise to 16564-16698 with a stop loss of 16803.

Cover the same on dip to 16378-16058 as the opportunity arises.

A close below 16400 with negative candle can continue the slide to test the low of 15963 subsqeuntly.

 

SILVER  MCX  MAY  ::

 

In our update for Friday before the market started, we had indicated to Sell on fall below 26957 with high of the day stop loss.

The low registered on Saturday was 26542. Traders who managed to sell below 26957 had the opportunity to benefit.

Sell on rise to 26756-26931 with a stop loss of 27310.

Sell further on fall and close below 26330 with high of the day stop loss.

 

USD INR SPOT ::

 

Last week we saw  a sideways movement above the support of 45.

A rise and close above 45.7 can bring about strength in Dollar and weakness on Rupee.

If 45 is not violated then a recovery and bounce back on USD is round the corner.

The long term wave structure also marked. As per it if 45 is violated on sustained basis then lower top and lower bottom sequence would continue for the target of 44-43.75 on conservative basis and overall the head and should pattern target could take in to 41.75.

A breakout and close above 45.7 could halt the fall from here on and recovery path for USD could be witnessed.

 

 

MCX Gold April: Resistance levels are at 16551 and at 16655. Price could dip below 16402, opening the way for 16222 or even 16000 now.

S1: 16426 S2: 16346 R1: 16586 R2: 16666

 

 

MCX Silver May: There is a stronger chance for the price to test supports near 26387/26074 or even 25449. Initial support will be at 26304. Resistance levels are noted at 26700, 26745 and 26934. Rise past 27090 could turn the picture neutral.

S1: 26440 S2: 26290 R1: 26740 R2: 26890.

 

MCX Crude Oil April: Bearish indications warns of a corrective dip to 3652 or even 3611. Resistance levels are at 3721 / 3748. The Price has to cross  above 3780 to wriggle out of this bearish state and revive the bullish expectations.

S1: 3649 S2 3610 R1: 3730 R2: 3770

 

MCX Copper April: Still the picture has bullish hopes while below 335.50 levels. Ideally 335.50/336.50 could see basing signs again for a rise towards 347.50 levels or even higher. Will give up the bullish view on the break of 334.50.

S1: 336 S2: 332 R1: 344 R2: 348

 

MCX Zinc Mar: Resistances are at 104.50 followed by 104.90 now. Favored view expects resistances to cap for a decline towards 102.60 followed by  a deeper fall towards 100.50. Unexpected rise above 105.85 to open dash our bearish hopes.

S1: 101.50 S2: 99.50 R1: 105.50 R2: 107.50

 

MCX Lead Mar: Rallies to 100.85/101 can be sold s/l 102.50 targets 97.50.

S1: 98 S2: 96 R1: 100 R2: 102

 

MCX Nickel Mar: Fall below 1015 could force us to abandon our bullish view in nickel. Such a fall could drag prices lower towards 995 initially followed by a deeper fall towards 945 levels.

S1: 1015 S2: 1005 R1: 1035 R2: 1045

 

MCX Natural Gas Mar:  Dips to 187 can be bought for a target 194/198. SL 183.

S1:184 S2: 180 R1:190 R2:194

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 08.03.2010

EXPECTATIONS  FOR  THE  WEEK  STARTING  FROM  08.03.2010 ::

SPOT GOLD:-Sell on fall below 1125$ with high of the day stop loss.

Buy above 1146$ with low of the day stop loss.

 

 

SPOT SILVER;-Traders who are holding long positions can keep a stop loss of 17$.

Fresh long can be undertaken on rise above 17.50$ with low of the day stop loss.

Sell on fall below 17$ with high of the day stop loss.

Traders if holding short position can keep 17.50$ as the stop loss.

 

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 79.40$.

Fresh trading long positions can be taken above 82.1$ with low of the day stop loss.

 

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS;-A retracement of the rise from 2.40$ to 6.10$ has been witnessed from  April 09 to Jan 2010.

The retracement level are placed at  4.26$-3.80$.

Recovery and bounce can come from either of the level  4.26%-3.80$.

Traders short can keep a stop loss of 4.80$.

Sell further on fall below 4.54$ with high of the day stop loss

 

 

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

Traders by chance holding long position can keep  a stop loss of 16810.

Expect higher range of 16981-17062 to be tested.

Buy on rise and close above 17100 with low of the day stop loss.

Sell on fall below 16767 with high of the day stop loss.

 

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY'-

Traders holding long positions can keep a stop loss of 26590 to continue long.

Use rise to 27250-2745 to exit long and take profit on earlier long positions or try to move with stop loss.

Fresh trading Buy can be undertaken on rise above 27211 with low of the day stop loss.

Sell on fall below 26590 with high of the day stop loss

 

 

ALERT:- THIS WHOLE WEEK MCX MKT WILL BE SUBDED BY INR GAME WE MAY NOT GET CLEAR DIRECTION OR MAY DISTURB COMPLETE ANAYSIS DUE TO FLUCTUATIONS IN INR

 

 

 

Currency Signals

EUR/USD: 1.3681. Edge towards 1.378 and then rally

towards 1.397

USD/INR: 45.49. Likely to fall, but not before the initial

favoured rise towards 45.7-45.9

 

 

 

MCX Gold April: Supports are near 16775/16790 and maximum 16700. The view is bullish for a rise towards 17250/17310. Price needs to fall below 16670 to give up the bullish view. Below this next level appear near 16550. Favored view expects a rise.

S1:16835 S2:16755 R1:16975 R2:17055

 

 

MCX Silver May: Supports near 26550 could hold it from slipping lower to 26165 and rising towards 27640/27720 levels. We expect the rally to the end near 27565 and start drifting towards 26165/25850.
S1:26865 S2:26685 R1:27205 R2:27385

 

MCX Copper April: Supports at 340/341 to hold for a test of 353 levels or even higher. While above 335 price could even aim for 360/362. 

S1:341 S2:337 R1:348 R2:352

 

 

MCX Crude Oil Mar: Supports near 3680 or 3655 could hold corrective dips if any for next rise towards 3800 or 3830. It has to fall below 3605 to cause doubts about this bullish view.
S1:3690 S2 3650 R1:3760 R2:3800

 

 

MCX Zinc Mar: Supports are at 105 followed by 104 now. Ideally, supports to hold for a rise towards 109.65 now.
S1:106 S2:105 R1:108 R2:109.

 

 

MCX Lead Mar: Still in a volatile range of 98-103. Only a rise above 103.75 to reinforce bullish hopes for 108.
S1:101 S2:100 R1:103 R2:104

 

 

MCX Nickel Mar: Presently, 1009/1010 holding well. Ideally consolidation and a break above 1045/1050 to take prices towards 1085/1090.

S1:1010 S2:1000 R1:1030 R2:1045.

 

 

MCX Natural Gas Mar: Resistances at 211/212 to cap for a fall towards 205. Direct rise above 215 to result in a retracement towards  227/228 levels.

S1:208 S2:204 R1:214 R2:218

 

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VIEWS FOR 24TH FEBRUARY 2010

MCX GOLD TRADING STARTERGY ::

 

-Sell on rise to 16638-16720 with a stop loss of 16768.

Expect lower range of 16510-16428 to be tested.

In case of close below 16527, the falling speed can get accelerate in subsequent days.

The 14 day RSI has moved above 50 and has come back below the 50 mark indicating that the pullback is complete. Now first retracement of the rise from 15963 to 16689 will be witnessed before making attempts to move higher above 16689. A trading trend line breakdown is also visible.

Failure to move past 16689 from here on would mean a major slide would be if offing.  Fresh long can be undertaken broadly above 16689.

The retracement levels are placed at 16545, 16433 and 16321 respectively.

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STARTERGY:- 

Sell on rise to 25023-25266 with a stop loss of 25435.

Expect lower range of 24612-24369 to be tested.

 

SPOT SILVER;- 

Traders can Exit long positions on the rise to 15.9$-16.2$-16.64$.

Sell on rise to 15.9$-16.2$ with a stop loss of 16.55$.

Support is at 15.65$.

Sell on fall below 15.65$ with high of the day stop loss

 

SPOT GOLD;- 

Traders can Exit long positions on rise to 1107$-1116$-1129$ as the opportunity arises.

Sell on rise to 1116$ with a stop loss of 1129$.

Sell further on fall below 1097$ with high of the day stop loss.

Buy on rise and close above 1032$

 

NYMEX CRUDE:- 

Traders can exit long positions on rise to 79.15$-79.65$ as the opportunity arises.

Fresh long can be undertaken on rise and close above 80.80$.

Sell on fall below 77.7$ with high of the day stop loss.

 

 NEWS:- China Daily’s report:China unlikelyto buy IMF’s191.3T of Gold. support seen at 1098 crucial below long liquidation seen,expect to hold for short bounce

 

 

MCX Gold April:  Gold Support  is still strong at 16507/ 16537 levels now. While this level holds we still expect bullishness for a break above

 

MCX Silver March: Rallies to 25309/25356 could find good resistance now and decline towards 24414/24571 llevels. Only a rise above 25500 could reinforce bullish expectations.

S1: 24684 S2:24504 R1: 25024  R2: 25204.

 

MCX Copper Feb: While 326.50 holds we expect rallies to 334.60/335.70 to find good resistance for a decline towards 326.50 levels or even lower. However, unexpected rise above 340 could diminish our bearish expectations.
S1:324.85 S2:320.85 R1:331.85 R2:335.85.

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistances are at 3674.5 followed by 3692. Failure to cross 3697 could pressure prices lower again towards 3583 levels now.
S1: 3622 S2: 3582 R1:3692 R2:3732.

 

MCX Zinc Feb:  Pullbacks to 104-105 levels to find good resistance for a decline towards 102.00 again. Only a direct rise above 106. to alter the bearish pciture.

S1:100.80 S2:99.70 R1:102.80 R2: 103.90.

 

 

MCX Lead Feb: Resistance are at 104.30 followed by 105.45. Resistance to cap for a decline towards 101. This is our favored view.
S1:101.50 S2:100.40 R1:103.50 R2:104.60

 

MCX Nickel Feb: Fall below 938 has changed the picture to bearish. Dips to 911-15 should hold support for a rise again towards 965-75 levels.
S1: 920 S2: 911 R1: 940 R2: 951.

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: While below 230, the fall should continue towards 215 levels.

S1: 219.90 S2: 215.90 R1: 225.90 R2: 229.90

EXPECTATION FOR 23RD FEBRUARY 2010

MCX Gold April:

Support is now at 16629/16644 now. Stronger support is in the 16494 region. Ideally, supports  to hold for 17110 followed by 17245. The bullish stance could be given up if price falls below 16403. 
S1: 16612 S2: 16527 R1: 16772 R2: 16857

 

 

 

MCX Silver March:

Critical support is at 25112/25127 level now. Favored view expect support to hold for  rise toward 25783 or even higher. Fall below 25018 to dash our bullish hope.

S1: 25090 S2:24910 R1: 25430  R2: 25610

 

 

MCX Copper Feb:

Any corrective dips to 327.80/328.80 to hold for a move towards 345 level. First we expect a correction towards 327.80. Failure to hold here could drag price toward 325.50/326.80 levels.

S1:331.50 S2:327.50 R1:339.70 R2:343.70

 

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb:

Crucial support is at 3618 followed by 3595. Fav view expect supports to hold for a test of 3764.Fall below 3567 to dent our bullish view.

 S1: 3664 S2: 3624 R1:3734 R2:3774

 

 

 

MCX Zinc Feb: 

Critical support at 103.50 followed by 102.85. Failure to hold support here could drag price lower toward 101.50.Fav view expect supports to hold for rally higher again.
S1:104.70 S2:103.70 R1:105.70 R2: 106.70

 

 

 

MCX Lead Feb:

Supports are at 105 followed by 103.95 now.Supports expectedto hold for 107. Fall below 102.85 to hint at weakness.
S1:105.35 S2:104.35 R1:107.35. R2:108.35

 

 

MCX Nickel Feb: 

Supports are at 933 followed by 927 now. Look for supports to hold and rise towards 965-967 levels.

S1: 931 S2: 921 R1: 951 R2: 961

 

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb:

While above 221 look for a pullback toward 236 level.
S1: 222 S2: 219 R1: 228 R2: 231 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :-

 

The ADX  is still falling and the upside movement is not getting the desired momentum. As the important support was some time back of 25935 was violated. The same has the resistance overhead therefore upside seems to be capped in spite of the chart look that price would move higher.  This kind of behavior is the typical of pullbacks and lower top and lower bottom formation.

Exit long positions and sell on rise to 25378-25607 with a stop loss of 25725.  Buy on rise above 25725 with low of the day stop loss

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY :- 

 

Exit long positions and sell on rise to 16744-16837 with a stop loss of 16889.

Fresh long can be undertaken on rise and close above 16890 with low of the day stop loss

 

SPOT GOLD :- 

 

Traders still holding long positions can keep a stop loss of 1097$.

Use rise from current level of 1124$-1141$ to exit long positions.

A strong rise above the red color line with positive candle can bring about a further rally towards 1161$.

Sell on fall below 1097$ with high of the day stop loss

 

SPOT SILVER :- 

 

Traders by chance still long and keep a stop loss of 15.65$.  

Fresh trading long can be undertaken on rise and close above 16.55$ with low of the day stop loss

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 15TH FEB. 2010

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders can buy on rise above 24674 with low of the day stop loss or 24129 whichever is lower.

Sell on fall below 24129 with high of the day stop loss or 24674 whichever is higher

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

In our previous update for 11/02/10, we had indicated that if 16383 is crossed then long positions can be undertaken.

The high registered subsequently was 16515. Traders who managed to enter had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 16421-16352 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16285.

Expect higher range of 16589 to be tested.

The 14 day RSI is moving up now which suggest that minor pullback is in process.

Important resistance point is at 16815 which could be tested if momentum increases on the upside.

 

SPOT GOLD;-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1077$ and look for rise to 1100$ or above to exit long.

Immediate resistance is at 1098$ and 1125$.

 

SPOT SILVER;-A sideways movement is being witnessed after a sharp slide. Resistance is at 15.7$-16.10$.

Support is at 15.15$-14.92$.

Failure to sustain at higher range will give a way down for fall.

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Over all volatility in the range of 78.1$-69.5$ is likely to be witnessed.

 Immediate resistance is at 75.7$.

Immediate support is at 72.5$.

 

 

 

MCX Gold April: Rise above 16617/16632 to go for 16723/16738 followed by 16770 levels. Ideally, resistance should be seen here. Supports are at 16466 followed by 16405.
S1: 16423 S2: 16343 R1: 16583 R2: 16663.

---

MCX Silver March: Immediate resistance is at 24934/25093 followed by 25409 levels. Favored view expects resistance to cap for a decline towards 24063 or even lower. It has to rise above 25460 to suggest that it might not fall as per this expectation but could attempt to test 25884 or even 26280. S1: 25329 S2: 25200 R1: 25590 R2: 25720.

---

MCX Copper Feb: Supports are at 312.40/313.40 levels now. A consolidation between 312.40/321.60 expected before a break higher towards 325/326 levels. Fall below 310 to dent our bullish expectation. S1: 311 S2: 308 R1: 319 R2: 323.

---

MCX Crude Oil Feb: While above 3305 there could be a sideways consolidation.  Resistance levels are near 3553/3576 and support is around 3390.Fall below 3390 would diminish the bullishness and could lead it to next supports at 3305 or the breakdown point at 3268.S1: 3395 S2: 3353 R1: 3473 R2: 3513.

---

MCX Zinc Feb: A consolidation is expected between 98/100.25. Favored view expects a break above 102 while above 98.00.S1: 98.40 S2: 96.40 R1: 102.60 R2: 104.60

---

MCX Lead Feb: Crucial support is at 96.00 now. Ideally, while below 98.50 we favour a break of 96.00 or even lower.S1: 96.40 S2: 94.40 R1: 100.40 R2: 102.40.

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Important resistance at 865/867 to cap now for a pullback towards 845\850 levels. Direct rise above 865 to target 880 levels now. S1: 854 S2: 847 R1: 870 R2: 879.

---

                                                                                                                      

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Important resistance is at 261/263 levels now. Favored view expects resistance to be tested. Supports are at 254 followed by 252.S1: 247 S2: 240 R1: 261 R2: 269

 

VIEW FOR 10TH FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

EXPECTATION  FOR  10TH  FEB, 2010

---

MCX Gold April: A, pullback, which we have been waiting for has materialized
to 16404/16435 levels as per expectations. We expect prices to rise towards
16560 levels now, only a break of 16600 can give way for further bullish moves.
S1: 16235 S2: 16188 R1: 16420 R2: 16580.

 

---

MCX Silver March: As expected a break of 24356 took prices towards 24785-24865
levels. Support at 24373/24387 to hold for 24976. This is our favored expectation.
 Only a fall below 23848 will force us to abandon our bullish view.
S1: 24385 S2: 24255 R1: 24645 R2: 24775.

 

---

MCX Copper Feb: Strong resistance will be seen at 310/312 levels now. While
below this levels we could see a corrective decline towards 301/302 levels now.
S1: 303.60 S2: 301.40 R1: 308 R2: 310.80.

 

---

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistance will be quite strong in the 3450-3497 zones.
Expect prices to get capped here for a decline towards 3125 ideally.
Strong support will be seen at 3373 now.
S1: 3396 S2: 3356 R1: 3476 R2: 3516.

 

---

MCX Zinc Feb: As expected we saw a sharp pullback towards 98.00 levels.
Dips to be cushioned in the 96-96.50 zones for a test of 100.25.Fall below
95.40 to dent our bullish exp.
S1: 96.40 S2: 94.40 R1: 100.40 R2: 102.40.

 

---

MCX Lead Feb: Supports are at 94.68 followed by 93.80. Supports could hold
for a test of 97.35-50.
S1: 93.40 S2: 91.40 R1: 97.40 R2: 99.40.

 

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Strong resistance will be seen in the 830-31 zone now break of
this level will once again take prices higher towards 865-75 zone.
Supports are at 813-815.
S1: 815 S2: 809 R1: 829 R2: 834.

 

---

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Rallies to 253-54 levels to be sold for a target of 235,
stop at 259.
S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 254 R2: 260

 

---

INTERNATIONAL :: 

SPOT GOLD:-

 

Yesterday’s buy above 1079$ got triggered. Use rise to 1086$-1095$ to take profit.

Support will be at 1064$-1052$.

A minor pullback is being witnessed which can carry towards the red color line before a further slide.

Only a rise and close above 1125$ can bring about a reversal.

 

 

SPOT SILVER :

 

Exit short for the time being.

Expect higher range of 15.6$-15.95$ to be tested.

Corrective dip to 15.3$-15$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14.92$.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16383.

Intra-day traders can wait for rise above 16393 and when it falls below 16393 then sell with high above 16393 as the stop loss.

Support will be at 16220.

Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.

 The 14 day RSI is showing intention to move higher but price not yet supporting convincing

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-

 

Cover short positions on dip to 24428 or below as the opportunity arises.

Expect a rise towards the resistance of 24731-24948.

The 14 day RSI is trying to move up. ADX is also moving up still and when it turns then that can show short covering process.

Sell on fall below 24124 with high of the day stop loss

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-

 

A recovery was seen yesterday.

Expect volatility to be seen in the band of 78$-68$ in near term.

RSI is trying to move up therefore a rise towards 76$ is possible.

Corrective dip to 72$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 70.

VIEWS FOR 9TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Supports are at 16160/16206 to hold for rise towards 16573/16603 levels now. Fall below 16069 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 16196 S2: 16116 R1: 16356 R2: 16436.   MCX Silver March: Crucial support is at 23990 and while above here we can expect a pullback towards 25547 levels. However, break below 23943 to drag prices lower towards 22626 ideally. S1: 24101 S2: 23971 R1: 24361 R2: 24492.   MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 295.30/296.30 to hold for a pullback towards 312/314 levels now. Fall below 292.20 could dent our bullish expectations. S1: 297 S2: 293 R1: 305 R2: 309.   MCX Crude Oil Feb: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3175 or even 3105. Resistance levels are spread between 3406 / 3448.It has to rise past 3505 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3324 S2: 3284 R1: 3404 R2: 3444.   MCX Zinc Feb: Supports at 93.75 followed by 93.10 to hold for 96.25 or 97.80. Fall below 92.30 will force us to abandon our bullish expectations. S1: 92.40 S2: 90.40 R1: 96.40 R2: 98.40   MCX Lead Feb:  Rise above 93.75 / 93.85 will reinforce bullish expectations for 97.45 / 97.50.    S1: 90.20 S2: 88.20 R1: 94.20 R2: 96.20.   MCX Nickel Feb: Supports at 795 / 800 to hold well for a test of 825 levels. Fall below 795 could hint at a weakness. S1: 801 S2: 792 R1: 818 R2: 826.   MCX Natural Gas Feb: Fall below 250 to confirm further weakness towards 235 levels or even lower. S1: 248 S2: 242 R1: 264 R2: 272     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::   Resistance will be at 1074$-1078$. Sell on rise to 1066-1070$ with a stop loss of 1078$. Sell on fall below 1060$ with high of the day stop loss.     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::     Keep a stop loss of 15.4$ to hold short. Cover short positions on dip from current price to 14.6$. A rise and close above 15.4$ can bring about a near term pullback.     NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::    Sell on rise to 5.51$ or above with a stop loss of 5.7$. Buy on rise above 5.7$ with low of the day stop loss.     NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 74$. Cover the same on dip from current price to 68.5$ as the opportunity rises. Expect volatility in the range of 78.1$-68$.     TRADING  STRATEGY  ::   GOLD  MCX  APRIL  ::    Expect higher range of 16370-16421 to be tested. Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 16370 and when it falls below 16370 then sell with high above 16370 as the stop loss. Sell on fall below 16220 with high of the day stop loss.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::    Hold short positions with a stop loss of 25000. Look for dip to 24221 or below to cover short position. Sell on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss. If the stop loss and resistance of 25000 is crossed on closing basis then we could find a pullback rise towards 26000.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 8TH FEBRUARY 2010

VIEWS  FOR  THE  WEEK  STARTING  FROM  8TH  FEBRUARY 2010

---

MCX Gold April: Price could rise in correction towards 16627/16688 area before next decline towards 15868 chances of an extension to 16871/16843 also looks likely.

S1: 16206 S2: 16126 R1: 16366 R2: 16446. 

 

---

MCX Silver March: Supports at 23750/24070 to hold for a test of 24340-24520 or even higher before the next decline towards 23158 or ideally 22585/21927. Rise above 25300 could neutralise our bearish expectations S1: 24020 S2: 23730 R1: 24454 R2: 24585

 

---

MCX Copper Feb: Supports at 300/297 to hold for a pullback towards 317/319 levels now.

Fall below 296.85 could dent our bullish expectaions. S1: 296 S2: 292 R1: 304 R2: 308

 

---

MCX Crude Oil December: Prices show several bearish indications favoring a decline towards 3232 or even 3160. Resistance levels are spread between 3466 / 3510. It has to rise past  3567 to get out of this bearish situation. S1: 3334 S2: 3425 R1: 3545 R2: 3585.

 

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Could find resistance at 816/819 levels now. A break of 800 can create panic selling pressure towards 780 levels. This is our favored view. While below 816 target 804 and 784. Unexpected break of 826 can change this bearish expectations.

S1:804 S2:786 R1: 816 R2: 826

 

---

MCX Lead Feb: Ideally resisitance at 93.75 could drag prices again to 90.50 or even to 85 levels now. While below 94.10 target 92/91.Break above 96 can change this bearish picture. S1: 92 S2: 90.70 R1: 94.10 R2: 96.10.

 

---

MCX Zinc Feb: while trading below 95.60 levels sell for a target of 92. Break of 96 can negate this bearish view. S1: 92.10 S2: 91.50 R1: 95.90 R2: 97.30.

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::

 

A minor pullback to 1075$-1084$ can be used.
For the time being traders can cover short positions at 1059$-1043$.

Sell again on fall below 1043$ with high of the day stop loss

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

 Cover short positions at current level or below.
Sell further on fall below 14.6$.

Resistance will be at 15.4$.

A minor pullback is possible for immediate near term if the low of 14.6$ is not violated.

Expect higher range of 15.47$-15.8$ to be tested.

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  ::

 

A range bound movement in the band of 6.10$-5$ continues.
Expect trading up move on rise and close above 5.6$.

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::

 

Cover short positions if any from current level to 68$ as the opportunity arises or hold short with a stop loss of 74$.
Resistance will be at 72.5$-74$. Support will be at 68$.

 

LEAD  LME  ::

 

The retracement of 1977$ has been tested last week.
Support will be at 1915$.

On further fall below 1915$, expect a slide towards 1760$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 1549$.

Resistance will be at 2175$-2265$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 24555 and cover the same at current price and on dip to 24222-24103.
Sell further on fall and close below 23610 with high of the day stop loss.

Expect higher range of 24443-24561 to be tested.

ADX is moving higher a shown in the chart therefore the downside momentum could still be in place.

 

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL  :: 

 

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 16244-16172 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below 15963 with high of the day stop loss.

A positive divergence on 14 day RSI is being witnessed now therefore if the low of 15963 is not violated from here on then we could see a near term pullback rise at least.

Sell further on fall and close below 15963 with high of the day stop loss. Higher range of 16357-16429 could be tested.

 

USD INR  :: 

 

A breakout has been witnessed. In our expect updates, our expectation was towards near term weaker rupee and the same has been witnessed.
Resistance will be at 46.9-47.10$.

A further breakout and close above 47.10$ can bring about a rally for Dollar.

Support for Dollar will be at 46-45.9.

Broadly a wider range of 47.10-45 and if a breakout is witnessed further in near term then significant weakness could be seen in Rupee. Expect resistance and profit booking on Dollar at 47.

VIEWS FOR 5TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX

MCX Gold April: Resistance at 16312/16358 to cap any rallies for a test of 15860/16060 now. S1: 16050 S2: 15780 R1: 16320 R2: 16430. MCX Silver March: Resistances at 24600 followed by 24850 now should cap for further decline towards 23700. S1: 24050 S2: 23670 R1: 24600 R2: 24960 MCX Copper Feb: While below 298 it is expected to decline edge lower towards 289/280 levels now. Unexpected rise above 300 to begin a corrective up move towards 306 levels. S1: 287 S2: 278 R1: 298.70 R2: 306. MCX CrudeOilFeb:Resistance at 3446 followed by 3495 could cap for test of important support and break below 3378 targeting 3306. S1:3360 S2:3300 R1:3470 R2:3520 MCX Zinc Feb: Resistance at 95.10 followed by 95.85 to cap for a further decline towards 92.50. From there a strong recovery is expected. S1: 93.20 S2: 92.50 R1: 95.1 R2: 95.85 MCX Lead Feb:  Resistance at 92.30 followed by 93.05 to cap for fall towards 89.75. Again a very strong recovery is expected from there. S1: 91.0 S2: 89.8 R1: 93.5 R2: 94.5. MCX Nickel Feb: Next support is at 818/20 now. We still hope this support could hold fror a break above 875. Unexpected break of 816 could drag prices towards 780 levels. S1: 817 S2: 801 R1: 838 R2: 845. MCX Natural Gas Feb: Resistance at 257 followed by 262 to cap for fall towards 236. Break below 236 will be very bearish.S1: 242 S2: 236 R1: 259 R2: 265   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::     The support of 1074$ was violated yesterday. Expect Gold now to slide towards 1014$-953$-888$. Gold slid to 1015$ is likely and will move below the 1000$ mark in time to come. Only a breakout and close above 1125$ can negative the possibility of Gold moving down to test each of the level 1014$-953$-888$ gradually.   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::   Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.4$. The 38.2% retracement of the entire rise from 8.63$ to 19.41$ which was at 15.03$was tested. The long term trend line shown has also got violated. Silver is likely to move down all the way to test the bottom in weeks and months to come with volatility of lower top and lower bottom formation. A bounce from either of the retracement level of 15$-13.9$-12.7$ could be witnessed for a pullback rally to make lower top.   NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::   Exit long and sell on rise to 74.4$-76.5$ as the opportunity arises. Expect the lower range of 71$-68$ to be tested. Only a breakout and close above 78.10$ can prevent it from a slide towards 71$-68$   TRADING  STRATEGY  ::   GOLD  MCX  APRIL  ::    Sell on rise to 16238-16430 and exit long with a stop loss of 16581. Expect lower range of 15896-15703 to be tested.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::    Sell on rise to 24827-25279 with a stop loss of 25608. Expect lower range of 24046-23594 ADX is moving up with the fall with indicates downside momentum. Important support of 25935 has been violated therefore major medium to long term reversal has been confirmed. Even if the rally come in near term the rise can make a potential lower top only

VIEWS FOR 4TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Minor support is at 16540 followed by important support at 16435 levels now. Rallies to 16720/16735 to cap upside attempts now for a fall towards 16420/16435.
S1: 16540 S2: 16420 R1: 16720 R2: 16830.

---

MCX Silver March: Break below 25860 took prices lower again. Good resistance will  be seen at 25800-25860 levels now. Favoured view expects downside to extend towards 24610/24767 while below 25861-25940.S1: 25250 S2: 24770 R1: 25860 R2: 26120

---

MCX Copper Feb: Strong weekly supports are at 291/292 levels now. Ideally these levels
could hold for a retracement higher from here.  Failure to do so could drag prices even lower. S1: 301 S2: 297 R1: 308 R2: 310.5.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: Important support is at 3535 levels now followed by 3490. Unexpected fall below 3442 will force us to abandon any chance of bullishness towards 3625.

S1: 3535 S2: 3490 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

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MCX Zinc Feb: Ideally, 94.00/95.00 to hold for a pullback higher again.

S1: 95.6 S2: 94.80 R1: 97.6 R2: 98.9.

---

MCX Lead Feb:  Support at 91 look vulnerable and could be broken. Subsequently we could see a retracement higher.S1: 92.6 S2: 91.0 R1: 95 R2: 96.5.

---

MCX Nickel Feb: Still in bullish consolidation now. Only fall below 829 could dash our
bullish hopes for a rally towards 875.S1: 838 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860

---

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259,
which are strong resistance levels and prices, prices, could retrace from these levels.
S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::

 

 Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1098$ and use rise to 1121$-1132$ to take profit.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on close above 1125$.

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.93$.

Cover the same on dip to 16.10$-15.82$.

Sell on rise to 16.53$-16.77$ with a stop loss of 16.93$.

 

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  :: 

 

A range of movement has been in a wider band of 6.11$-5$.

Traders can buy on rise and close above 5.56$ with low of the day stop loss.

Support will be at 5.35$.

On fall below 5.35$, expect the range of 5$ to be tested again.

A minor lower top and lower bottom formation is being witnessed.

 

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  :: 

 

Traders can take profit at current level or above to 78.10$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect a sideways movement or a minor correction.

Support is at 76.5$.

Fresh trading buy can be undertaken on rise and close above 78.10$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL :: 

 

Hold long with a stop loss of  16560 or exit long on rise to 16688-16815. Re-enter long on rise and close above 16815 with low of the day stop loss.

 

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Sell on rise to 25780-26101 with a stop loss of 26340.
Expect lower range of 25221-24900 to be tested

 

ENJOY  TRADING  !!!!!

 

LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR REAL TIME CALLS

 

EXPECTATION FOR 3RD FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-Resistance will be at 16.9$-17$.

Support will be at 16.52$-16.3$.

Expect a sideways movement on the immediate near front. Unless a breakout and close above 17$ is witnessed.

Sell on fall below 16.5$ with high of the day stop loss

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Indicated to buy above 75.5$ in our last couple of updates.

Crude rose to a high of 77.41$. Traders who managed to implement a buy had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 76.5$-75$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 74$.

Expect high range of 78.3$-80.3$ to be tested which can be used for profit booking

 

SPOT GOLD:-Corrective dip to 1110-1102$ can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 1098$.

Expect higher range of 1122$-1130$ to be tested.

Sell on fall below 1098$ with high of the day stop loss

 

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions for the time being on dip to 26103-25910 as the opportunity arises.

Expect higher range of 26253-26446 to be tested

 

GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Corrective dip to 16702-16614 can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 16560.

Expect higher range of 16841-16929 to be tested

 

 

MCX Gold April:Resistance at 16762-16822 level. Ideally, this zone should cap for decline
toward 16417/16462 level. S1: 16674 S2: 16594 R1: 16834 R2: 16915

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MCX Silver March: We can expect a consolidation in the 25672-26170 zones now followed
by a rise towards 26903 levels. Only a fall below 25454 to cause  doubts on our bullish view.
S1: 25931 S2: 25801 R1: 26192 R2: 26321

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MCX Copper Feb: Ideally, supports at 310.50 levels to hold for a move towards 322. This is our favored view.

Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view. This is our favored view. Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view.
S1: 311.60 S2: 307.60 R1: 319.60 R2: 323.60.

---

 

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: An important resistance at 3572 has been tested. Supports are now at 3500 followed

by important support at 3460/3465 now. Ideally a consolidation should take place before the next move.
S1: 3514 S2: 3474 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

---

 

 

MCX Zinc Feb: Supports are at 98.15 followed by 97.20 now. While above 96, a pullback towards 103 looks likely.

S1: 97.60 S2: 95.60 R1: 101.6 R2: 103.60.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Supports are at 94.30 followed by 93.05. Favored view expects supports to hold for a test of

99.35/50 levels while supports hold. S1: 95.15 S2: 93.15 R1: 99.15 R2: 101.15.

---

 

 

MCX Nickel Feb: Strong support is seen in the 826-830 levels. Ideally, this zone to hold for a rise towards 875.

This is our favored view. Fall below 823 to dent our bullish view. S1: 840 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860.

---

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259, which are strong

resistance levels and prices, could retrace from these levels. S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

VIEWS FOR 2ND FEB. 2010 - MCX & COMEX

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 25858-25600 and buy with a stop loss of 25290.

After buying  use rise to 26327-26585 to exit long.

A pullback could be witnessed.

A rise toward the earlier bottom which was violated can be tested which is at 26602.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The 14 day RSI has exited the oversold zone with a strong positive candle.

Corrective dip to 16524-16387 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16290.

Sell further only on fall and close below 16200.

Expect higher range of 16757-16894 to be tested.

 

 

 MCX Gold April: Dips to 16515 / 16470 likely to find support for pullbacks  towards 16800 / 16846 levels Fall below 16260 to negate this bullish view. S1: 16540 S2: 16460 R1: 16700 R2: 16780.

 

 MCX Silver March: Pullback towards 26491 or even higher towards 26773 looks likely now as long as prices are above 25380.S1: 25940 S2: 25810 R1: 26200 R2: 26330

 

MCX Copper Feb: Dips to 313.20 / 312.10 favored to find support for a move higher  towards 321.75 /324.80 levels. Fall below 308.40 to raise doubts now.  S1: 312 S2: 308 R1: 320 R2: 324

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Dips to 3443 levels likely to find support for a move higher towards 3538 / 3566 levels. Fall below 3360 to negate this view.  S1: 3395 S2: 3355 R1: 3470 R2: 3510.

 

MCX Zinc Feb: While above 96.20, expect rallies to 103.2 levels. Supports are  at 98.50 levels. S1: 98.70 S2: 97.70 R1: 100.6 R2: 101.70.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Ideally A pullback towards 98 looks likely while above 91.  S1: 94.4 S2: 93.2 R1: 96.70 R2: 97.7.

 

MCX Nickel Feb: While above 820, expect pullbacks towards 850 levels.     S1: 825 S2: 815 R1: 840 R2: 855

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 /247 to find support for a move higher  towards 255, which are strong resistance levels and prices,could retrace  from these levels. S1: 247 S2: 244 R1: 253 R2: 256

SPOT GOLD:-

Expect a near term rise towards 1116$-1127$.
Corrective dip to 1096-1084$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1074$ to exit at 1116$-1127$.selling can only be seen below 1074

SPOT SILVER: 

Support is at 16.3$-15.7$.
Expect a pullback towards 16.87$-17.10$.
Traders short can cover the same at current price or below

2010 expectation of comex gold,lead,copper.alluminum and nymex crude with natural gas

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON LME NICKLE FOR THE YEAR 2010:-


Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones

MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-


We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010

MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-

We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.

MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-

Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
 
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-


MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.


2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.


NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-


We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.

The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side


MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)



LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again


MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).