VIEWS FOR 4TH FEBRUARY 2010 - MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold April: Minor support is at 16540 followed by important support at 16435 levels now. Rallies to 16720/16735 to cap upside attempts now for a fall towards 16420/16435.
S1: 16540 S2: 16420 R1: 16720 R2: 16830.

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MCX Silver March: Break below 25860 took prices lower again. Good resistance will  be seen at 25800-25860 levels now. Favoured view expects downside to extend towards 24610/24767 while below 25861-25940.S1: 25250 S2: 24770 R1: 25860 R2: 26120

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MCX Copper Feb: Strong weekly supports are at 291/292 levels now. Ideally these levels
could hold for a retracement higher from here.  Failure to do so could drag prices even lower. S1: 301 S2: 297 R1: 308 R2: 310.5.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: Important support is at 3535 levels now followed by 3490. Unexpected fall below 3442 will force us to abandon any chance of bullishness towards 3625.

S1: 3535 S2: 3490 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

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MCX Zinc Feb: Ideally, 94.00/95.00 to hold for a pullback higher again.

S1: 95.6 S2: 94.80 R1: 97.6 R2: 98.9.

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MCX Lead Feb:  Support at 91 look vulnerable and could be broken. Subsequently we could see a retracement higher.S1: 92.6 S2: 91.0 R1: 95 R2: 96.5.

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MCX Nickel Feb: Still in bullish consolidation now. Only fall below 829 could dash our
bullish hopes for a rally towards 875.S1: 838 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860

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MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259,
which are strong resistance levels and prices, prices, could retrace from these levels.
S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD  ::

 

 Hold long positions with a stop loss of 1098$ and use rise to 1121$-1132$ to take profit.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on close above 1125$.

 

 

INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::

 

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 16.93$.

Cover the same on dip to 16.10$-15.82$.

Sell on rise to 16.53$-16.77$ with a stop loss of 16.93$.

 

 

NYMEX  NATURAL  GAS  :: 

 

A range of movement has been in a wider band of 6.11$-5$.

Traders can buy on rise and close above 5.56$ with low of the day stop loss.

Support will be at 5.35$.

On fall below 5.35$, expect the range of 5$ to be tested again.

A minor lower top and lower bottom formation is being witnessed.

 

 

NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  :: 

 

Traders can take profit at current level or above to 78.10$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect a sideways movement or a minor correction.

Support is at 76.5$.

Fresh trading buy can be undertaken on rise and close above 78.10$.

 

 

TRADING  STRATEGY ::

 

GOLD  MCX  APRIL :: 

 

Hold long with a stop loss of  16560 or exit long on rise to 16688-16815. Re-enter long on rise and close above 16815 with low of the day stop loss.

 

 

SILVER  MCX  MARCH  :: 

 

Sell on rise to 25780-26101 with a stop loss of 26340.
Expect lower range of 25221-24900 to be tested

 

ENJOY  TRADING  !!!!!

 

LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR REAL TIME CALLS

 

EXPECTATION FOR 3RD FEBRUARY 2010 -- MCX & COMEX

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-Resistance will be at 16.9$-17$.

Support will be at 16.52$-16.3$.

Expect a sideways movement on the immediate near front. Unless a breakout and close above 17$ is witnessed.

Sell on fall below 16.5$ with high of the day stop loss

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-Indicated to buy above 75.5$ in our last couple of updates.

Crude rose to a high of 77.41$. Traders who managed to implement a buy had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 76.5$-75$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 74$.

Expect high range of 78.3$-80.3$ to be tested which can be used for profit booking

 

SPOT GOLD:-Corrective dip to 1110-1102$ can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 1098$.

Expect higher range of 1122$-1130$ to be tested.

Sell on fall below 1098$ with high of the day stop loss

 

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions for the time being on dip to 26103-25910 as the opportunity arises.

Expect higher range of 26253-26446 to be tested

 

GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Corrective dip to 16702-16614 can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 16560.

Expect higher range of 16841-16929 to be tested

 

 

MCX Gold April:Resistance at 16762-16822 level. Ideally, this zone should cap for decline
toward 16417/16462 level. S1: 16674 S2: 16594 R1: 16834 R2: 16915

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MCX Silver March: We can expect a consolidation in the 25672-26170 zones now followed
by a rise towards 26903 levels. Only a fall below 25454 to cause  doubts on our bullish view.
S1: 25931 S2: 25801 R1: 26192 R2: 26321

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MCX Copper Feb: Ideally, supports at 310.50 levels to hold for a move towards 322. This is our favored view.

Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view. This is our favored view. Fall below 307.50 to dent our bullish view.
S1: 311.60 S2: 307.60 R1: 319.60 R2: 323.60.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: An important resistance at 3572 has been tested. Supports are now at 3500 followed

by important support at 3460/3465 now. Ideally a consolidation should take place before the next move.
S1: 3514 S2: 3474 R1: 3594 R2: 3634.

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MCX Zinc Feb: Supports are at 98.15 followed by 97.20 now. While above 96, a pullback towards 103 looks likely.

S1: 97.60 S2: 95.60 R1: 101.6 R2: 103.60.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Supports are at 94.30 followed by 93.05. Favored view expects supports to hold for a test of

99.35/50 levels while supports hold. S1: 95.15 S2: 93.15 R1: 99.15 R2: 101.15.

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MCX Nickel Feb: Strong support is seen in the 826-830 levels. Ideally, this zone to hold for a rise towards 875.

This is our favored view. Fall below 823 to dent our bullish view. S1: 840 S2: 832 R1: 852 R2: 860.

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MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 / 247 to find support for a move higher towards 259, which are strong

resistance levels and prices, could retrace from these levels. S1: 249 S2: 243 R1: 259 R2: 264

 

VIEWS FOR 2ND FEB. 2010 - MCX & COMEX

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Cover short positions at current price and on dip to 25858-25600 and buy with a stop loss of 25290.

After buying  use rise to 26327-26585 to exit long.

A pullback could be witnessed.

A rise toward the earlier bottom which was violated can be tested which is at 26602.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The 14 day RSI has exited the oversold zone with a strong positive candle.

Corrective dip to 16524-16387 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 16290.

Sell further only on fall and close below 16200.

Expect higher range of 16757-16894 to be tested.

 

 

 MCX Gold April: Dips to 16515 / 16470 likely to find support for pullbacks  towards 16800 / 16846 levels Fall below 16260 to negate this bullish view. S1: 16540 S2: 16460 R1: 16700 R2: 16780.

 

 MCX Silver March: Pullback towards 26491 or even higher towards 26773 looks likely now as long as prices are above 25380.S1: 25940 S2: 25810 R1: 26200 R2: 26330

 

MCX Copper Feb: Dips to 313.20 / 312.10 favored to find support for a move higher  towards 321.75 /324.80 levels. Fall below 308.40 to raise doubts now.  S1: 312 S2: 308 R1: 320 R2: 324

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Dips to 3443 levels likely to find support for a move higher towards 3538 / 3566 levels. Fall below 3360 to negate this view.  S1: 3395 S2: 3355 R1: 3470 R2: 3510.

 

MCX Zinc Feb: While above 96.20, expect rallies to 103.2 levels. Supports are  at 98.50 levels. S1: 98.70 S2: 97.70 R1: 100.6 R2: 101.70.

 

MCX Lead Feb:  Ideally A pullback towards 98 looks likely while above 91.  S1: 94.4 S2: 93.2 R1: 96.70 R2: 97.7.

 

MCX Nickel Feb: While above 820, expect pullbacks towards 850 levels.     S1: 825 S2: 815 R1: 840 R2: 855

 

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Dips to 249 /247 to find support for a move higher  towards 255, which are strong resistance levels and prices,could retrace  from these levels. S1: 247 S2: 244 R1: 253 R2: 256

SPOT GOLD:-

Expect a near term rise towards 1116$-1127$.
Corrective dip to 1096-1084$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1074$ to exit at 1116$-1127$.selling can only be seen below 1074

SPOT SILVER: 

Support is at 16.3$-15.7$.
Expect a pullback towards 16.87$-17.10$.
Traders short can cover the same at current price or below

2010 expectation of comex gold,lead,copper.alluminum and nymex crude with natural gas

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON LME NICKLE FOR THE YEAR 2010:-


Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 61%. In the coming year, we expect nickel prices to perform well. As long as $15550/15500 holds support we expect prices to edge higher towards 21900/22000 levels (50% retracement level of the fall from the peak made in early 2008 to the bottom made in the end of 2008) initially, followed by channel resistance at 26600/26900. Nickel prices are moving in a channel with supports around 16500/15500 range and resistance coming around 26600/26900 zones

MCX NICKLE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Nickel has been the laggard among the base metals rally during the last year with returns of around 40%. We expect nickel prices to perform well during this year as long as 740/750 holds support. We expect prices to edge higher towards 1030/1035 levels initially followed by 1180/1200 and then towards 1250/1270 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR NYMEX NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-


We expect the multi year low of sub $2.45/MMBtu reached in September of 2009 to be a significant low which is not likely to breach in the coming years. Even with the persistent bearish news of Natural Gas coming from North America, we expect Natural Gas to stay firm in 2010.
We expect this current rally to target $6.90/MMBtu – $7.10MMBtu levels which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009.The MACD on monthly chart too seem to indicate a bottoming process. We expect Natural Gas to trade between $4.22/MMBtu – $4.50/MMBtu on the lower side to $9.20/MMBtu – $9.50/MMBtu (61.8 % of the low made in 2009) on the higher side in 2010

MCX OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS FOR 2010:-

We expect the lows of Rs118.00/MMBtu not to be violated easily. We expect the current rally to target levels of Rs 310/MMBtu – Rs 330 /MMBtu which are 38.2 % retracement of the multi year low reached in 2009. We expect Natural Gas to trade between Rs 190/MMBtu – Rs 214/MMBtu on the lower side to Rs. 428/MMBtu – Rs. 455/MMBtu on the higher side in 2010.

MCX OUTLOOK FOR ALLUMINUM FOR 2010:-

Aluminum has been the worst performer in the base metal rally this year with returns close to 38% only. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 85/90 we could see prices to rally towards 117/122. After reaching the targets mentioned above we could see prices to correct lower towards 91/95 and then rise higher again towards 128/130 levels.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’sappreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



LME COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Copper prices have given around 130% returns this year. Prices took supports around 2850/2825 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as $6600/mt holds support, we could expect prices to edge higher towards $7500/7600 levels (Upward sloping blue Trend Line resistance). After reaching the target zones we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards 6500 and 5800 levels, which are also between 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rise from 2850 to projected 7500/7600 levels
 
MCX COPPER OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-


MCX Copper prices have given around 113% returns this year. Prices took supports around Rs.140/145 levels last year and bounced from there. From the current levels it looks like as long as 300/305 holds support we could expect prices to edge higher towards 375/400 levels .After reaching the target zones, we could see some profit booking and prices could correct lower towards Rs.295 and Rs.280 levels

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. We expect the average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 to be Rs.48.35. The variation from expected Mean price could range between +2 % and -2 %.)



2010 COMEX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

The below chart depicts Spot Gold Weekly prices. Prices are moving inside a channel (blue), which has been broken earlier though. The downward sloping trend-line (green) line indicates the past resistance points, which could become strong support points on any pullback in prices and the levels are clustered between 995-980 range. The channel support points are between 945-55 range. We are expecting gold prices to get supports between $990/950 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of $1250/OZ or followed by even $1300 towards the end of the year. The risk will be a weekly close below $900.
RISK: As the longer-term supportive fundamentals are not abating, risk for a major reversal in gold prices seems remote. The risk of a reversal could come from investment communities’ response to strength in USD and an abating safe heaven appeal, which could see a major correction in gold prices.


2010 MCX GOLD OUTLOOK:-

We are expecting gold prices to get supported between 15400 and 14680 broad range and rise higher towards an immediate target of 19300 or even 20200 towards the end of the year. The risk level will be below 14100.


NYMEX CRUDE 2010 OUTLOOK:-


We believe that if and when such a regulation is imposed it is likely to have negative effect on prices, at least in the short term Crude Oil has rallied around 75.00% since the end of year 2008 and 132 .00% from its lows of 2009. Judging from the price action of the active contract Nymex Crude Oil Feb, which is closed at 78.05 on 24 Feb, we believe this rally still has the steam to go further higher towards Important Resistance levels at $87.20/BBL – $90.50/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement level from its lows of 2008.

The MACD on the Monthly Crude Oil charts too indicate an upward price action and dips if any would be an opportunity to buy. In the Year 2010, we expect Crude Oil to trade in the range $56.40/BBL – $60.85/BBL on the lower side to $111.20/BBL – $118.30/BBL on the higher side


MCX CRUDE OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

MCX Crude Oil prices have rallied 62.00 % in the Year 2009. We believe the current rally has the potential to target Rs.4065/BBL – Rs.4120/BBL levels, which is a 50 % retracement levels from its 2008 lows. We believe that MX Crude Oil prices to trade in the range Rs.2920/BBL – Rs.3050/BBL on the lower side and Rs.4973/BBL – Rs.5110/BBL on the higher hide. Any dip is a good opportunity to buy and hold.
(Note- The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 could be 48.50. The variation from expected average price could be +2 % and -2 %.)



LME LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have outperformed the base metals complex during $2009 with returns close to 135%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above 1950/2000, we could see prices to edge higher towards $2700/2750 levels which is 61.8% retracement level from the all time high made in 2007 to the low made in 2008.
Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 2700/2750 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 1800/2000 levels which is also between 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the rise from 851 to projected 2700/2750 levels and then rise higher again


MCX LEAD FOR 2010:-

Lead prices have performed well in the base metals complex during 2009 with returns close to 101%. Favored view is that as long as prices stay above Rs.93/97 we could see prices to edge higher towards 127/130. Prices could see some correction form the target zone mentioned at 127/130 zones and correct lower towards the support zones at 85/95 and then rise higher again.

(Note-The domestic prices could vary depending on the rupee’s appreciation/depreciation. The expected average price of USD/INR for the year 2010 will be Rs.48.50. The variation from expected average price could range between +2 % and -2 %.).

VIEWS & EXPECTATION FOR 28TH JANUARY OF MCX & COMEX COMMODITIES

MCX Gold Feb: Resistance at 16569/16599 to cap for a decline towards 16296 levels or even lower towards 15993 now. Unexpected, rise above 16751. 16751 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 16361 S2: 16282 R1: 16522 R2: 16602.   MCX Silver March: Important resistance is at 26563/26610 now. Ideally prices could get capped for a decline towards 25500/25532. MCX Silver March: A strong retracement could occur from these levels.  S1: 25941 S2: 25811 R1: 26202 R2: 26331.   MCX Copper Feb: Strong resistance is at 337.25/338.30 levels now. This should cap for 321.70 levels now. S1: 327.80 S2: 323.80 R1: 335.75 R2: 339.75.   MCX Crude Oil Feb: Further scope of a decline towards 3436 exists while below 3531. S1: 3405 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525.   MCX Zinc Jan: While above 100 look for a bounce towards 104 levels.   S1: 100.20 S2: 98.40 R1: 103.90 R2: 105.80.   MCX Lead Jan: While above 95 look for 99 levels. Fall below 95 to dent our bullish exp. S1: 93.10 S2: 91.20 R1: 97.80 R2: 100.80   MCX Nickel Jan: Ideally, 825-30 to hold for a rally towards 850-70. Direct fall below 820 to drag prices lower.  S1: 826 S2: 821 R1: 840 R2: 848   MCX Natural Gas Feb: Chart look bearish for a fall towards 230/221. Rise above 249-252 to negate the bearish view. S1: 235 S2: 227 R1: 252 R2: 259     INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  GOLD ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 1105$ to hold short positions. Cover the same at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises. Sell further on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss.   INTERNATIONAL  SPOT  SILVER  ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of  17$. Support will be at 16.3$-16.08$-15.7$. Look for dip to the support to cover short positions.   NYMEX  LIGHT  CRUDE  OIL  ::    Support is at 74$-73.8$. Hold short positions with a stop loss of 75.5$. Sell further on fall and close below 72.5$. If the stop loss of 75.5$ is crossed then traders can buy on rise above 75.5$ with low of the day stop loss.   GOLD  MCX  FEB ::   Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16572. Sell further on fall and close below 16450 with high of the day stop loss. Traders can take chances to buy on rise above 16572 with low of the day stop loss.   SILVER  MCX  MARCH  ::   Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 26947. Sell on rise to 26281-26541 with a  stop loss of 26947. Expect lower range of 25810-25550 to be tested.   ENJOY  TRADING !!!!

LOOK  FORWARD  TO  JOIN  OUR  PAID  SERVICE  FOR  REAL  TIME  CALLS :: LIVE  CALLS  ::  EARN  RS.  10000 /-  ++++ EVERYDAY

VIEWS FOR 27TH JANUARY 2010 - TECHNICAL VIEWS MCX & COMEX

SPOT GOLD:-The trend violation was shown yesterday and now the zoomed chart is shown. Resistance is at 1104$. Traders short can keep a stop loss of 1104$. Buy on rise above 1005$ with low of the day stop loss. Cover short positions at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss or 1005$ whichever is higher   NYMEX CRUDE:-Support is at 74$-73.8$. Sell on fall below 73.8 with high of the day stop loss. Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss 75.50$ to hold short. Traders can buy on rise above 75.5 with low of the day stop loss or 73.8 whichever is lower   TIN LME:-A negative divergence has been witnessed on 14 day RSI, Support will be 17525$. On fall below 172225 expect a slide further. Traders can take profit on rise from  current level of 17630-18820$.   LEAD LME :-A negative divergence on 14 week RSI is in place. Trend line breakdown has been witnessed. Expect lower levels of 2106$-1982$ to be tested. Sell on rise to 2299$-2375$ with a stop loss of 2500$.   NICKLE LME :-A negative divergence on RSI has been witnessed. Overall use rise to 18650-18875 to exit long positions. Sell on fall below 17975 with high of the day stop loss. Support is at 17225$. On fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a significant slide.   SPOT GOLD ALERT:- The trend continues to receive hammering is seen consistently held below 1104. Once above 1104, which is more favoured today,expect rally till atleast 1114, Intraday spikes to 1131 region also cannot be ruled out, but expect liquidation pressure from as early as 1114 or 1126 to turn back lower again to the bear camp, which is now pointing towards 980, once below 1074   Watch out for: • China steps up measures to curb economic growth • Australia reports faster than expected inflation. AUD strengthens • German CPI • US FOMC Rate decision • US Weekly Crude Inventory Data   MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 16350. Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16572. Sell further on fall and close below 16350 with high of the day stop loss   MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 27325. Cover short position on dip to 26612-26676 as the opportunity arises. Sell on fall below 26600 with high of the day stop loss or 26947 whichever is higher         MCX Gold Feb: Resistance is at 16547/16562 now. Break and close above here could result in a retracement towards 16742/16787 levels now. However, fall below 16293 to cause doubts on this view. Such a fall could drag prices sharply lower towards 16082 or even lower towards 15662.S1: 16383 S2: 16303 R1: 16545 R2: 16625.     MCX Silver March: Resistance is at 27530/27562. Rise above this level can retrace towards 28263 levels. However, failure to cross the resistance could   the resistance could drag prices lower towards 25570 or 25252 now. S1: 26685 S2: 26555 R1: 26945 R2: 27075.     MCX Copper Feb: Crucial support at 339.80. While below here still expect break above 351 and test of 356.40/357.40.  S1:341.20 S2:337.20 R1:349.20 R2:353.20.     MCX Crude Oil Feb: Failure to cross-resistance at 3491-3508 to pressure prices lower towards 3391-3403 levels. However, direct rise above 3508. Above 3508 to take prices higher towards 3577-3588. S1: 3437 S2: 3397 R1: 3517 R2: 3557.     MCX Zinc Jan: While above 104.75 look for a bounce towards 109 levels.  S1: 105.40 S2: 103.40 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.20.     MCX Lead Jan: While below 100.50 look for a 105.25 levels. Fall below 100.25 to dent our bullish exp. S1: 100.70 S2: 99.20 R1: 104.70 R2: 106.70     MCX Zinc Jan: While above 104.75 look for a bounce towards 109 levels.  S1: 105.40 S2: 103.40 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.20.     MCX Nickel Jan: Ideally, 825-30 to hold for a rally towards 878-80. Direct fall below 825 to drag prices lower.  S1: 841 S2: 836 R1: 856 R2: 862     MCX NaturalGas Feb: Dip to 260/258 to find support for move higher toward 276/282 level. Fall below 256 to negate the bullish view. S1:262 S2:256 R1:273 R2:2

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 25TH JANUARY, 2010

SPOT SILVER:-Support is around 16.7$.

A fall and close below 16.7$ can bring about a slide down towards 16.09$-15.7$ at least.

Traders who are holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 17.5$.

 

SPOT GOLD:-

Sell further on fall below 1074$ with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.

Cover short positions for the time being at current price to 1074$ as the opportunity arises.

Resistance will be at 1107$-1118$. A rise above 1118$ can bring about a near term trading pullback.

An attempt to come above the red color trend line will be made before surrendering down again.

TINLME:-A negative divergence has been witnessed on 14 day RSI,

Support will be 17525$.

On fall below 172225 expect a slide further.

Traders can take profit on rise from  current level of 17630-18820$.

 

LEAD LME:-A negative divergence on 14 week RSI is in place. Trend line breakdown has been witnessed.

Expect lower levels of 2106$-1982$ to be tested.

Sell on rise to 2299$-2375$ with a stop loss of 2500$.

 

NICKLE LME:-A negative divergence on RSI has been witnessed.

Overall use rise to 18650-18875 to exit long positions.

Sell on fall below 17975 with high of the day stop loss.

Support is at 17225$. On fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a significant slide.

 

ZINC LME:-A trend line breakdown was seen on the chart along with the RSI existing overbought zone which indicates near term slide or sideways movement.

Sell on fall below 2265$ with high of the day stop loss.

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 2615$.

Overall use rise to 2414$-2580$ to exit long positions.

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Traders by chance still holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 27325.

Sell on rise to 26868-27135 with a  stop loss of 27325.

Cover short positions if any on dip to 26410-26143.

A close below 25935 could bring about a sustain slide.

We could find recovery from the lower range of 26410-26143 range.

A support in the range of 26600-25934 is visisble.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 16350.

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss at 16550.

Sell further on fall and close below 16350 with high of the day stop loss

 

MCX  VIEWS  ::

 

MCX Gold Feb: A pullback to 16722/16752 or even higher towards 16873 looks likely while above 16374. 
S1: 16407 S2: 16327 R1: 16567 R2: 16647.

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MCX Silver March: Resistance at 27323 followed by 27638 levels now. Ideally, supports are at 26803/26850
to hold for a rally towards the above- mentioned levels.    S1: 26610 S2: 26480 R1: 26870 R2: 27000.

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MCX Copper February: While below 337.50 we can expect a pullback towards 347.70/348.70 levels.
S1: 337 S2: 333 R1: 345 R2: 349.

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MCX Crude Oil Feb: Resistance at 3450 followed by 3475 to cap for a test of crucial support at 3384.
This is our favored view. Rise above 3522 could diminish bearish expectations.
S1: 3405 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525.

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MCX Zinc Jan: Pullbacks to 110.00/111.90 looks likely above 107 now. 
S1: 105.40 S2: 103.50 R1: 109.40 R2: 111.40.

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MCX Lead Jan: Ideally A pullback towards 104.50/106.40 looks likely while above 102. 
S1: 101.20 S2: 99.70 R1: 104.80 R2: 106.80.

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MCX Nickel Jan:Supports at 841 followed by 836 now. Failure to hold support here could dent
bullish expectation for test of 905/915 or even higher. S1: 841 S2: 836 R1: 854 R2: 859

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VIEWS FOR 21ST JANUARY 2010

MCX Gold Feb:  Pullback to 16749/16764 looks likely while below 16560.
Big picture looks quite weak now for a fall towards 16120/16270 while rallies to
17020/17169 caps. S1: 16600   S2: 16520   R1: 16760 R2: 16840.

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MCX Silver March: Resistances are at 28136/28182 followed by 28414/28492 now.
 Ideally resistance to cap for decline towards 27144/27175 levels now.
 S1: 27680 S2: 27550 R1: 27940 R2: 28070.

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MCX Copper Feb: Rallies to 347.60/348.60 to cap for a decline towards 334.35/326.20.
 This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 349.65 can change the momentum.
S1: 340 S2: 338.50 R1: 346.50 R2: 349.50

---

MCX Crudeoil Feb: Ideally 3630/3660 resistance to cap for a decline towards 3560 followed by 3460 now.
Break of 3652 can negate this bearish momentum.
S1: 3570 S2: 3500 R1: 3645 R2: 3668

---

MCX Nickel Jan: Prices to trade between 860 - 880 now. Break of either levels can decide the momentum.
S1: 860 S2: 845 R1: 879 R2: 887

---

MCX Lead Jan: Holds crucial support at 103.20, if 103 holds expect the prices to recover towards 107/109.
Momentum bearish.S1: 105 S2: 103.50 R1: 107 R2:109.80

---

MCX Zinc Jan: If holds below 114, prices to target 109. Unexpected break of 114.50 can negate this bearish view.
S1: 110.50 S2: 109 R1: 113.80 R2: 114.60

---

MCX Naturalgas Jan: Pullbacks to 247 to hold for a rise towards 260/275 now. Break of 240 can change this bullish momentum.
S1: 250.50 S2: 245 R1: 262 R2: 267

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STARATERGY:-

The trend has turned down.

Cover all long positions at market price or rise to Rs. 28029-28375-28982 as opportunity arises.

Sell at market price with stop loss at Rs. 28030.

Expect prices to test lower range of Rs. 27422-27076

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-

The trend has turned down.

Cover all long positions at market price or rise to Rs. 16759-16856-17032 as opportunity arises.

Sell at market price with stop loss at Rs. 16789.

Expect prices to test lower range of Rs. 16573-16466

 

VIEWS FOR 20TH JANUARY 2010

SPOT GOLD:-The trend is sideways.

Key support is at $1126.

A triangular formation is being witnessed.

Buy on breakout above $ 1141 with stop loss of $1125.

Expect a rise to $1148 - $1161.

 

SPOT SILVER:-Trend is up.

Buy at market price and on dips to $18.67 - $18.48 with stop loss of $18.34.

Expect a rise to $18.90 – 19.08.

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend has turned up.

Buy at market price and on dips to Rs. 16906 – Rs. 16868 with stop loss of Rs. 16818.

Expect a rise to Rs. 16971 – Rs. 17010.

On breakout and close above Rs. 17110, gold can rise to Rs. 17175 – Rs. 17217 levels.

As the trend is up, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 16868 and when it rises above Rs. 16868 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 16868 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at higher levels to Rs. 16906 – Rs. 16971 or above

 

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.

Buy at market price and on dips to Rs. 28566 – Rs. 28452 with stop loss of Rs. 28350.

Expect a rise to Rs. 28780 – Rs. 28890.

As the trend is up, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 28450 and when it rises above Rs. 28450 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 28450 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at higher levels to Rs. 28566 – Rs. 28779 or above

 

 

NYMEX CRUDE:-A correction of the last corresponding rise from 68.59$ to 83.95$ is being witnessed.

The RSI exiting overbought a few days back and moving down along with the price.

The 50 % retracement level has been tested which was at 76.60$.

If this low did not get broken then expect a pullback rise to 80 – 82$ in coming sessions.

However on sustain fall and close below $76 could open the downside for $73 – 69.

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-Earlier resistance of 5.38$ offered support as the low registered in last few days was 5.35$ and moved to 5.69$.

Resistance continues to remain at higher range of 5.92$-6.11$.

A breakout and close above 6.12$ can bring about a rally in Gas.

Support of 5.34$ is violated then  the retracement level of 5.25$ and 5$ to be tested.

 

 

 

MCX Gold Feb: Supports are at 16800 followed by 16696 to hold for a test of 17156/17230 levels.
This is our favored view. However,a decline below 16695 could take prices lower towards 16562/16591 area,
which is critical support.  S1: 16853   S2: 16673   R1: 17013 R2: 17093.

---

 

 

MCX Silver March: Supports are at 28269 followed by 28040 now.Decline below 28040 to dent
our bullish expectation of a rise towards 29336 or even higher. S1: 28535 S2: 28405 R1: 28795 R2: 28925.

---

 

MCX Copper Feb: Break above 349 is a bullish sign and could take prices all the way to 353/354 levels now.
Supports are at 344/345 now. S1: 343.75 S2: 339.75 R1: 351.75 R2: 355.75.

---

 

 

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Supports are at 3587 followed by 3568 to hold for a pullback towards 3670/3672.
This is our favored view. S1: 3570 S2: 3530 R1: 3650 R2: 3690.

---

 

 

MCX Zinc Jan: Initial resistance is at 115.60 followed by 116.20. Rise past 116.50 to increase bullishness

ahead towards 118.80 or even higher towards 120.40.Fall below 113.40 could cause doubts on this view.

S1: 112.90 S2: 110.80 R1: 116.80 R2: 118.80.

---

 

 

MCX Lead Jan: Crucial resistance at 113.60 followed by 114.40. Break above 114.40 could take
prices higher towards 116 oreven higher towards 118. Fall below 110.40 could dampen our bullish
expectations. S1: 110.30 S2: 108.30 R1: 114.30 R2: 116.30.

---

 

 

MCX Nickel Jan: Dips to 850 or even lower towards 845 to provide support for a break above
crucial resistance is at 876.Fall below 840 could dampen the bullish sentiment.
S1: 874 S2: 862 R1: 896 R2: 904.

---

 

 

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Chart looks bearish for a fall towards 251/244. Resistances are at 264/268 now.
S1: 254 S2: 251 R1: 264 R2: 268.00.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 18TH JANUARY 2010

MCX Gold Feb: Resistance are at 16923/16937 or even higher to 16967 to cap the upside for a decline towards 16624/16654 levels.Only a fall below 16624 could turn the picture clearly bearish. S1: 16772 S2: 16692 R1: 16932 R2: 17012.

MCX Silver March: Supports are seen at 28030 followed by 27861. Resistances are at 28475 followed by 28659.Resistances, to cap for a decline towards supports. S1: 28145 S2: 28015 R1: 28405 R2: 28535.

MCX Copper Feb: Resistances are at 346.50/347.50 to cap for a decline towards 334.40. This is our favored view.Only rise above 351.60/352.60 will force us to abandon our bearish view. S1: 336.85 S2: 332.85 R1: 344.85 R2: 348.85.

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Decline expected towards 3516/3493 area or more ideally towards 3452/3429. Corrective up ticks could be resisted near 3612/3635.Price needs to rise above 3676 to give up this bearish expectation. S1: 3536 S2: 3496 R1: 3616 R2: 3656.

MCX Zinc Jan: While above 111.0 expect rallies to target 115.0 levels. S1: 112.00 S2: 111.00 R1: 114.0 R2: 115.00.


MCX Lead Jan: While above 110.40, expect rallies to target 114.0 levels. S1:110.60 S2: 109.50 R1: 112.70 R2: 113.60.

MCX Nickel Jan: While above 830, expect rallies to target 870 levels. S1: 840 S2: 830 R1: 863 R2: 875

MCX Natural Gas Jan: Break of the range 264 / 250 to decide next directive move. S1: 257 S2: 253 R1: 265 R2: 270


SPOT GOLD :-Range of movement is likely to be 1162$-1118$.
Resistance will be at 1146$-1151$-1162$.

Support will be at 1130$-1128$-1118$.

Weakness could be witnessed on fall and close below 1118$.

Traders short can keep a stop loss of 1147$. Traders long can keep a stop loss of 1130$. Alternatively, sell on rise to 1151$ or above with a stop loss of 1169$.

Sell on fall below 1118$ with a stop loss of 1147$.


SPOT SILVER:-Support is at 18.2$-18$.

A fall and close below 18$ can resume a downward move to test the trend line shown in the chart which is round 17.2$. The higher bottom is placed at 16.7$.

Resistance will be at 18.8$-19.42$.

Overall view would be to exit long positions on rise from current price of 18.36$ to the resistance levels



USD INR:-A positive divergence on 14 Day RSI has been witnessed which indicates that near term weakness in Rupee is likely.

If the support of 45.28 is not violated then we could price Rupee getting weak towards 46.75.

A breakout and close above 47.10 would mean a significant strength for Dollar and significant weakness for Rupee.

For the time being it looks that short on Dollar need to get covered

Sell further Dollar only below 45. Alternatively, when it come up towards 46.7-47.10 then selling can be considered with stop loss of 45.10.

A near term weakness in Rupee is possible towards 46.76-47.10



LME COPPER:-The red color horizontal line shows the earlier support offering resistance and vice versa is shown in the chart.

The rise is within the Raff Regression Channel.

The 14 day RSI is showing a negative divergence for the rally for some time now.

The RSI is managing to remain above the 50 mark and holding the rising trend within the channel all along the rise.

Immediate support is at 7200$.

A fall and close below 7200$ can bring about a slide down to test the lower channel line which is around 6900$-6800$.

A first shot in the oversold zone from here on would confirm a reversal and the high as the peak for some time.

Subsequent pullback and if RSI hits overbought then it is more likely to make lower top.

Short term profit booking is suggested on rise from current price to 7900$ in time days to come.



ZINC LME:-The weekly chart shows the exit of 14 Weeks RSI from the overbought zone.

We had seen 2 weeks back inverted hammer which indicates that till the high of the inverted hammer not crossed further upside will be not be seen.

Last week, we saw a negative candle movement on weekly chart.

Trend line support is at lower level of 2400$.

A fall and close below 2400$ will begin the downward or a sideways movement. The RSI is likely to fall if 2400$ is breached.

Resistance is at 2615$, 2730$ and 2900$. If the trend is not violated then we could find recovery pullback to test the trend line. In that case, negative divergence on RSI could begin to develop. Broad objective can be to exit long positions on the rise.



ALLUMINUM LME:-The 38.2% retracement level of the fall from 3375$ to 1270$ has been tested. The 38.2% retracement level is placed at 2322$.

Support is at 2210$.

The 14 weeks RSI is in overbought zone.

A fall and close below 2210$ will begin a correction in ALUMINUM.

Resistance will be at 2360$-2390$.

A rise and close above 2390$ can bring about a rise towards the 50% retracement level which is placed at 2568$.

The trend on weekly chart is up and can turn down on fall and close below 2210$. If the weekly close is below 2210$ then it confirm a near term correction or sideways movement.



NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has hit the oversold zone when the price was 16305$ on 27/11/09 giving opportunity to buy in next few days at lower range. Exit oversold zone on 10/12/09 at 16300$.

Subsequently, NICKEL moved higher and hit the overbought zone on 24/12/09 at 18275$

NICKEL on this occasion worked perfectly on RSI. We had indicated buy around the same time of 16300$ and expect the rise to test 19675$ against which NICKEL attained 19240$.

Support now will be at 17225$.

Resistance will be at 19000$-19700$.

Overall use rise to take profit at 19000$-19700$ and re-enter long on close above 19700$.

A breakout and close above 19700$ in days to come can take NICKEL to test back the recent peak of 21150$ and moved further above it as well.

A fall and close below 17225$ can bring about a slide to test back the low of 15100$.



MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Sell on fall below 16760 with high of the day stop loss or 16925.

Inside bar has been witnessed on Friday. The In Side Bar range is 16925-16762. Either side rise or fall below the range would offer trading opportunity for the day.

The wide range of movement is 17210 -16650.

ADX is falling down therefore the movement is likely to be narrow.

Bollinger Bands are contracting.

Traders needs to wait for expansion to get directional movement



MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.

Buy on dips to Rs. 28240 – 28070 with stop loss of Rs. 27865.

Expect a rise to Rs. 28350 – 28515.

As the trend is up, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 28075 and when it rises above Rs. 28075, then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 28075 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 28240 – Rs. 28515 range or above

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 14TH DECEMBER 2009

SPOT GOLD ::

Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 1147$.

Sell on rise to 1122$-1135$.

On further fall below 1115$, the slide can get down towards 1101$-1088$.

 

SPOT SILVER ::

A trend line breakdown is visible as mentioned last week about the rising wedge.

RSI has moved down below 40. Any recovery in price an RSI moving above 40 can bring about a pullback rise of the fall from 19.43$ to the immediate recent low.

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 17.6$.

Sell further on fall below 16.87$ with high of the day stop loss

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Resistance will be at 5.31$-5.38$.

Expect further upside momentum only on breakout and close above 5.38$.

Traders holding long positions can take profit or keep a stop loss of 4.83

 

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 71.5$.

Sell on rise to 70.2$ or above with a  stop loss 71.5.

On further slide below 69$, lower level of 65$ could be tested.

 

 

MCX GOLD TRADING STARTERGY:-

The 50% retracement level has been tested which was at 16912. The low registered on Friday was 16883.

Expect further slide on fall and close below 16883. If that happens then expect a slide towards 61.8% retracement which is at 16572.

Traders who are a holding short positions can keep  a stop loss of 17284 to hold short

MCX SILVER TRADING STARTERGY;-

Traders holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 27624.

Support is at 26806.

Sell on fall below 26800 with high of the day stop loss or 27624. Buy on rise above 27623 with low of the day stop loss

MCX Gold Feb: Resistances at 17076/17121 followed by 17197 levels to cap for 16893 or
even lower towards 16711.Unexpected rise above 17230 to drag prices higher towards
17348/17380.   S1: 16885 S2: 16803 R1: 17045 R2: 17125.

---

MCX Silver March: Resistances at 27566 followed by 27770 now. Resistance to cap for a
decline towards 26450/26540.Rise above 27770 to result in a pullback towards 27434/28513.
 S1: 26915 S2: 26785 R1: 27175 R2: 27305.

---

MCX Copper Feb: Fall below 320 to result in a fall towards 307.60/309.70 levels.
Rise above 326.25 on the other hand could drive prices higher towards 330.40/333.50. 
S1: 319.80 S2: 315.80 R1: 327.80 R2: 331.80.

---

MCX Crude Oil December: Resistance near 3311/3333 or maximum 3395 could cap advances for
further decline towards 3195 (strong support).Below 3161 it could slip towards 3150 or
3069 also.Favoured view is bearish while below 3475.S1: 3218 S2: 3178 R1: 3298 R2: 3338.

---

MCX Zinc Dec: Dips to 106.50/106.0 levels to find support for a move higher towards
 108.70 levels.Fall below 104.75 to negate this bullish view.   
 S1: 106.00 S2: 104.90 R1: 108.00 R2: 108.90.

---

MCX Lead Dec: Dips to 106.50/106.00 levels to find support for a move higher towards
108.70 levels.Fall below 104.75 to negate this bullish view.   
 S1: 106.00 S2: 104.90 R1: 108.00 R2: 108.90.

---

MCX Nickel Dec: Dips to 774 / 772 to find support for a move higher towards
797/810 levels.Fall below 760 to negate this bullish view. 
 S1: 770 S2: 760 R1: 791 R2: 802

---

MCX Natural Gas Dec: Dips to 240/238 to find support for a move higher towards
261 levels.A fall below 232 is needed for stronger correction.  
S1: 238 S2: 233 R1: 245 R2: 248

EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD SILVER CRUDE FOR THE WEEK AND NEAR TERM OUTLOOK FROM NITESH JAIN

Comex Gold (GC):-


Gold's fall from 1227.5 extended further to as low as 1110.2 last week and the break of 1130.1 support, as well as the sustained trading below the near term channel, indicates that rise from 931.3 has likely made a top already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 1148.4 resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1079.4 next. On the upside, above 1148.4 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1227.5 and bring another fall to continue the correction.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.


Comex Silver (SI):-


Silver's fall from 19.50 extended further to as low as 16.90 last week. The break of 17.70 support confirms that rise from 16.12 has finished at 19.50 already, just ahead of 19.55/21.44 resistance zone. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 17.64 minor resistance holds and further fall should be seen to retest 16.12 support next. On the upside above 17.64 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 19.50 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continued to build up last week. The break of 55 days EMA and near term trend line support suggests that rise from 12.435 has completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. This also serve as the first signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too, with weekly MACD back below signal line. Outlook is turned bearish and deeper decline should now be seen to next trend line support at 13.8 level and sustained break there will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low.

Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation



Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-


Crude oil dived further last week and closed below 70 level at 69.87. Break of the medium term trend line support serves as another indication of medium term reversal. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 65.05 support first. On the upside, above 71.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.


Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-


Natural gas rose to as high as 5.375 last week and the break of 5.318 resistance argues that rise from 2.409 is possibly resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally will remain in favor. Sustained trading above 5.318 will pave the way to next short term target at 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, however, a break below 4.837 support will indicate that recent consolidation is still in progress inside and another fall should be seen towards lower side of recent range near to 4.157. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained there and bring an eventual upside breakout.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 should not be completed yet and we would continue to anticipate an upside breakout of the recent range of 4.157/5.138 eventually. Above 5.318 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Nevertheless, break of 4.157 support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again