Comex Gold (GC):-
Gold's uptrend continued last week and made another record high of 1153.4 then turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But still, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1125.8 support holds and further rise is in favor. Above 1153.4 will target 161.8% projection of 985.5 to 1072 from 1026.9 at 1166.9 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 1153.4 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper decline. But even in such case, downside should be contained above 1072 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 681 would likely develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave. 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 is already met and next target will be 100% projection at 1258. On the downside, however, break of 1072 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 931.3 has completed and some medium term lengthier consolidations should be seen before the long term up trend resumes.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rally extended to as high as 18.85 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen below 18.85 first. But after all, downside is expected to be contained well above 17.025 support and bring rally resumption. Above 18.85 will confirm that medium term rise has resumed and should target 19.55/21.55 resistance zone next.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 8.4 is still in progress and should now be targeting 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. But after all, rise from 8.4 is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall. On the downside, break of 16.12 will now be an important signal that silver has topped out in medium term already and will turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Initial bias in crude oil remains on the downside this week for a test on 75.57 support first. Break there will confirm that whole choppy fall from 82.00 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, short term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 80.51 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.14) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.
.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural gas dropped further to as low as 4.157 last week before recovering. The development argues that whole rebound from 2.409 is finished already. Hence, while some sideway trading might be seen initially this week, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.734 resistance holds. Current decline is still expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 5.318 at 3.52 first. However, break of 4.734 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn short term outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. The break of 55 days EMA, even though it's brief so far, suggests that rebound from 2.409 is possibly just a corrective rise only and may have completed after failing to sustain above 55 weeks EMA. Deeper decline could now be seen for a retest of 2.409 support first. On the upside, break of 5.318 resistance is needed to revive the case that Natural gas has bottomed in medium to longer term.
NOTE GOLD MARKET MOVING IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATION AS ALERT GIVEN ON 25TH AUG WHEN IT WAS TRADING NEAR 930-950$:-
GOLD LONG TERM OUTLOOK ;-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
BIG PICTURE MOVE ON SILVER FOR THE YEAR 2010
SUMMARY:-
· Prices continue to out perform Gold on both the upside and the downside. In 2010, Silver is expected to range between $13/oz and $25/oz.
· Investment demand is expected to remain strong in 2010, but a rebound in fabrication demand should see buying pressure increase.
· After the slump into recession in 2008, the recovery has been fast, but we doubt it is sustainable and therefore expect further distress to be seen in the months ahead.
· The dollar may be oversold in the short term, but structural problems suggest further dollar weakness is likely and that could lead to a dollar crisis. With the supply overhang, investors are going to have to continue buying Silver, but given their current interest and the big picture outlook, this is likely to happen.
Introduction :-
Since moving above $10/oz in March 2006, Silver prices have been on a roller-coaster ride with some fast and long rallies interspersed with steep and aggressive sell-offs; none more so than the drop from $21.36/oz to $8.50/oz between March and October 2008. However, the strong rebound after last year’s sell-off does indicate ongoing steady interest. Silver has benefitted from being both an industrial metal and a cheap precious metal, as industrial metals have rallied strongly in anticipation of an economic recovery and as a cheap precious metal, it has won market share from Gold jewellery. Also as a precious metal it has been sought after as a hedge against dollar weakness and financial distress. Given the diverse nature of Silver demand, prices are expected to perform well as even if weakness is seen in one area of demand, the other
areas should hold up and indeed could see demand accelerate. Silver also does not have the threat of IMF sales overhanging it. Generally for these reasons we feel there is still good upside potential for Silver and with prices (basis $17.50/oz) still 18% below last years’ highs and arguably still 185% below the 1980 highs, the outlook remains bullish. However, given Silver’s supply/demand situation the outlook for Silver can only be bullish while investors remain as committed to buying Silver as they have been in recent years. Over the past five years fabricated demand has on average been around 2,000 tonnes lower then supply. While investors are prepared to buy this surplus then higher prices can be seen, but should investors’ interest wane then Silver prices could tumble. Overall, we remain bullish for Silver as it is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps and at times outperform it. In last year’s Forecast report we were looking for the bulk of trading in 2009 to be between $11/oz and $18/oz; the low in January 2009 was $10.33/oz and the high has so far been $17.93/oz. In 2010, we feel Silver will trade within a $13/oz to $25/oz range as we expect more turbulence in the financial markets
Industrial Demand :-
Industrial demand accounts for 43% of total Silver end-use demand and is of paramount importance to the Silver market. In recent years global growth has been expanding at a fast pace, but this slowed to 1.4% in 2008 and is off significantly so far in 2009. Indeed industrial demand is expected to drop some 12% this year, but is expected to recover next year as a more broad based recovery is likely. The IMF forecast for World economic growth is 3% in 2010, after a 1% drop in global GDP in 2009. With industrial applications accounting for 54% of fabrication demand, which is up from 38% ten years ago and with India, China and the US, accounting for 70% of this rise in industrial usage and with Silver now being used in a wide
spread of new applications, demand is expected to recover faster than GDP growth. As such, we expect Silver’s industrial demand to grow around 7% in 2010. In addition to growth picking up more than global GDP, after the destocking seen over the past year, we expect restocking to see apparent demand rise even faster than actual demand. Therefore the combination of restocking, a pick- up in actual demand and ongoing investment buying, could certainly see Silver prices continue to rise strongly
Investment demand :-
With Silver supply outpacing fabrication demand in recent years, investors’ off-take has been critical in driving the overall bull market and the emergence of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been central in
facilitating this growth in investment demand. When the first ETF was launched in April 2006, it started with 653 tonnes of Silver, the peak holding to date was 11,112 tonnes, seen in August this year. As the chart opposite shows growth has been strong and steady; there have been periods of light redemptions along the way, but the trend is firmly up. At the end of September 2009, the combined holdings stood at 10,958 tonnes, which is 1.4% below the peak, but still 32% up since the start of the year. In 2008, the combined holdings grew 2,326 tonnes; in the nine months to the end of September 2009, the ETFs have grown by 2,702 tonnes. The fact that redemptions up until now have been light, suggests that long term investors are still buying into Silver’s safe-haven purposes.The presence of this above ground Silver stockpile is a potential threat to prices if mass liquidation were to unfold, especially as the total combined holdings is equivalent to roughly half a year’s mine supply. However, in the current environment of financial uncertainty and dollar weakness we would be surprised if investors were ready to sell the protection Silver offers them. This is especially so as prices are still well below the peak seen in 2008 at $21.36/oz. However, there is no denying the fact that the Silver in the ETF’s is potentially very liquid and therefore trends in the ETFs’ holdings need to be monitored carefully
More room for speculators :-
The net Fund Silver position pulled back heavily during last year’s second half selloff, but the position is climbing again and remains well below the peaks seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008. With the net long position
last at 47,410 contracts, it is still 12.4% below the peak in 2008 and 29.2% below the high in 2006. So with Silver prices also 23% below their 2008 peak, there seems good potential for prices to rise if the situation
remains bullish. Indeed, in this respect, Silver looks better placed than Gold to extend gains as the net long Fund position in Gold is already at record levels. As such, it does look as though Silver will continue to outperform Gold on the upside.
Technical outlook;-
Following the rapid sell-off in the second half of 2008, Silver prices have been trending higher again in an upward channel. Prices recently tackled the band of overhead supply seen between March and July last year between $16.20-$19.00/oz, but resistance was encountered around $17.65/oz and prices have now pulled back to consolidate. With the stochastic indicators also crossing lower Silver prices may now pull back towards the bottom of the channel which is around the $14/oz level, which is also where the 30 week (150 day) moving average is. However if the up channel continues to push prices higher then prices are likely to gradually overcome the overhead band of supply - the top of which is at $19.47/oz, which would then open up the way for a rechallenge of the highs at $21.36/oz.
Conclusion and Forecast :-
The situation in Silver is very interesting, even before the recession the market was running a supply surplus and this was made worse by the drop in demand, even though supply was cut too. However, the distress in the markets and concern over how this financial mess and the global imbalances are going to be corrected has increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the precious metals. In the medium term, while the supply surplus is present, Silver will be vulnerable if investors’ commitment to Silver wanes. If investment interest fails to soak up the annual surplus prices are likely to fall, indeed falling prices would then no doubt trigger liquidation of existing positions that would add to the downside pressure on prices. However,
we do not think such a scenario will unfold between now and the end of 2010, although there is no harm in having a contingency plan for when such a time arrives. Investor interest as seen by the steady climb in the ETFs’ holdings shows ongoing strong demand and with ETFs increasing their size by some 2,700 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, it does look as though this will more than absorb the market’s surplus. With ongoing concern about the dollar and US creditors vocally warning about dollar devaluation, not to mention the risk of a double-dipped recession, there seems plenty of reasons for investors and investment institutions to look to safe-guard their wealth and to diversify their dollar exposure, all of which should underpin demand for precious metals.In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate, but there is also a risk of a deeper correction in equities and industrial metals, that could drag Silver prices lower initially. However, we think dips in Silver prices will be seen as a buying opportunity, by investors and fabricators alike. In addition, we expect fabrication demand to recover later in 2010 and with that is likely to come industrial restocking. So Silver could, for a time, see strong demand from all areas of demand. In addition, we feel Silver is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps and as such we expect prices to spend the bulk of 2010 within a $13-$25/oz trading range. Should central bankers and politicians manage to find workable solutions to the bigger issues troubling the financial markets then demand for safe-haven products could suffer and then some fast
corrections would likely follow, but we think there is little chance of this happening any time soon and therefore we remain bullish for Silver.
· Prices continue to out perform Gold on both the upside and the downside. In 2010, Silver is expected to range between $13/oz and $25/oz.
· Investment demand is expected to remain strong in 2010, but a rebound in fabrication demand should see buying pressure increase.
· After the slump into recession in 2008, the recovery has been fast, but we doubt it is sustainable and therefore expect further distress to be seen in the months ahead.
· The dollar may be oversold in the short term, but structural problems suggest further dollar weakness is likely and that could lead to a dollar crisis. With the supply overhang, investors are going to have to continue buying Silver, but given their current interest and the big picture outlook, this is likely to happen.
Introduction :-
Since moving above $10/oz in March 2006, Silver prices have been on a roller-coaster ride with some fast and long rallies interspersed with steep and aggressive sell-offs; none more so than the drop from $21.36/oz to $8.50/oz between March and October 2008. However, the strong rebound after last year’s sell-off does indicate ongoing steady interest. Silver has benefitted from being both an industrial metal and a cheap precious metal, as industrial metals have rallied strongly in anticipation of an economic recovery and as a cheap precious metal, it has won market share from Gold jewellery. Also as a precious metal it has been sought after as a hedge against dollar weakness and financial distress. Given the diverse nature of Silver demand, prices are expected to perform well as even if weakness is seen in one area of demand, the other
areas should hold up and indeed could see demand accelerate. Silver also does not have the threat of IMF sales overhanging it. Generally for these reasons we feel there is still good upside potential for Silver and with prices (basis $17.50/oz) still 18% below last years’ highs and arguably still 185% below the 1980 highs, the outlook remains bullish. However, given Silver’s supply/demand situation the outlook for Silver can only be bullish while investors remain as committed to buying Silver as they have been in recent years. Over the past five years fabricated demand has on average been around 2,000 tonnes lower then supply. While investors are prepared to buy this surplus then higher prices can be seen, but should investors’ interest wane then Silver prices could tumble. Overall, we remain bullish for Silver as it is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps and at times outperform it. In last year’s Forecast report we were looking for the bulk of trading in 2009 to be between $11/oz and $18/oz; the low in January 2009 was $10.33/oz and the high has so far been $17.93/oz. In 2010, we feel Silver will trade within a $13/oz to $25/oz range as we expect more turbulence in the financial markets
Industrial Demand :-
Industrial demand accounts for 43% of total Silver end-use demand and is of paramount importance to the Silver market. In recent years global growth has been expanding at a fast pace, but this slowed to 1.4% in 2008 and is off significantly so far in 2009. Indeed industrial demand is expected to drop some 12% this year, but is expected to recover next year as a more broad based recovery is likely. The IMF forecast for World economic growth is 3% in 2010, after a 1% drop in global GDP in 2009. With industrial applications accounting for 54% of fabrication demand, which is up from 38% ten years ago and with India, China and the US, accounting for 70% of this rise in industrial usage and with Silver now being used in a wide
spread of new applications, demand is expected to recover faster than GDP growth. As such, we expect Silver’s industrial demand to grow around 7% in 2010. In addition to growth picking up more than global GDP, after the destocking seen over the past year, we expect restocking to see apparent demand rise even faster than actual demand. Therefore the combination of restocking, a pick- up in actual demand and ongoing investment buying, could certainly see Silver prices continue to rise strongly
Investment demand :-
With Silver supply outpacing fabrication demand in recent years, investors’ off-take has been critical in driving the overall bull market and the emergence of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been central in
facilitating this growth in investment demand. When the first ETF was launched in April 2006, it started with 653 tonnes of Silver, the peak holding to date was 11,112 tonnes, seen in August this year. As the chart opposite shows growth has been strong and steady; there have been periods of light redemptions along the way, but the trend is firmly up. At the end of September 2009, the combined holdings stood at 10,958 tonnes, which is 1.4% below the peak, but still 32% up since the start of the year. In 2008, the combined holdings grew 2,326 tonnes; in the nine months to the end of September 2009, the ETFs have grown by 2,702 tonnes. The fact that redemptions up until now have been light, suggests that long term investors are still buying into Silver’s safe-haven purposes.The presence of this above ground Silver stockpile is a potential threat to prices if mass liquidation were to unfold, especially as the total combined holdings is equivalent to roughly half a year’s mine supply. However, in the current environment of financial uncertainty and dollar weakness we would be surprised if investors were ready to sell the protection Silver offers them. This is especially so as prices are still well below the peak seen in 2008 at $21.36/oz. However, there is no denying the fact that the Silver in the ETF’s is potentially very liquid and therefore trends in the ETFs’ holdings need to be monitored carefully
More room for speculators :-
The net Fund Silver position pulled back heavily during last year’s second half selloff, but the position is climbing again and remains well below the peaks seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008. With the net long position
last at 47,410 contracts, it is still 12.4% below the peak in 2008 and 29.2% below the high in 2006. So with Silver prices also 23% below their 2008 peak, there seems good potential for prices to rise if the situation
remains bullish. Indeed, in this respect, Silver looks better placed than Gold to extend gains as the net long Fund position in Gold is already at record levels. As such, it does look as though Silver will continue to outperform Gold on the upside.
Technical outlook;-
Following the rapid sell-off in the second half of 2008, Silver prices have been trending higher again in an upward channel. Prices recently tackled the band of overhead supply seen between March and July last year between $16.20-$19.00/oz, but resistance was encountered around $17.65/oz and prices have now pulled back to consolidate. With the stochastic indicators also crossing lower Silver prices may now pull back towards the bottom of the channel which is around the $14/oz level, which is also where the 30 week (150 day) moving average is. However if the up channel continues to push prices higher then prices are likely to gradually overcome the overhead band of supply - the top of which is at $19.47/oz, which would then open up the way for a rechallenge of the highs at $21.36/oz.
Conclusion and Forecast :-
The situation in Silver is very interesting, even before the recession the market was running a supply surplus and this was made worse by the drop in demand, even though supply was cut too. However, the distress in the markets and concern over how this financial mess and the global imbalances are going to be corrected has increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the precious metals. In the medium term, while the supply surplus is present, Silver will be vulnerable if investors’ commitment to Silver wanes. If investment interest fails to soak up the annual surplus prices are likely to fall, indeed falling prices would then no doubt trigger liquidation of existing positions that would add to the downside pressure on prices. However,
we do not think such a scenario will unfold between now and the end of 2010, although there is no harm in having a contingency plan for when such a time arrives. Investor interest as seen by the steady climb in the ETFs’ holdings shows ongoing strong demand and with ETFs increasing their size by some 2,700 tonnes in the first nine months of 2009, it does look as though this will more than absorb the market’s surplus. With ongoing concern about the dollar and US creditors vocally warning about dollar devaluation, not to mention the risk of a double-dipped recession, there seems plenty of reasons for investors and investment institutions to look to safe-guard their wealth and to diversify their dollar exposure, all of which should underpin demand for precious metals.In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate, but there is also a risk of a deeper correction in equities and industrial metals, that could drag Silver prices lower initially. However, we think dips in Silver prices will be seen as a buying opportunity, by investors and fabricators alike. In addition, we expect fabrication demand to recover later in 2010 and with that is likely to come industrial restocking. So Silver could, for a time, see strong demand from all areas of demand. In addition, we feel Silver is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps and as such we expect prices to spend the bulk of 2010 within a $13-$25/oz trading range. Should central bankers and politicians manage to find workable solutions to the bigger issues troubling the financial markets then demand for safe-haven products could suffer and then some fast
corrections would likely follow, but we think there is little chance of this happening any time soon and therefore we remain bullish for Silver.
EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD FOR THE YEAR 2010 WITH FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ::
EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD FOR THE YEAR 2010 WITH FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ::
INTRODUCTION ::
• The Gold rally continues with prices posting fresh all time highs in early October, the rally is expected to continue within an $850-$1,400/oz trading range in 2010.
• After the turmoil in the financial markets last year a strong rebound has been seen, but with numerous large issues unresolved the rebound seems unsustainable.
• The fact Gold prices are this high suggests there is still a lot of fear in the markets. If a double dipped recession unfolds, prices could have considerably further to run.
• The outlook for Gold remains bullish, as it continues to provide a hedge against weakness in fiat currencies and further turmoil in the markets. It should also provide protection against inflation at a later date.
BRIEF VIEW ::
The onset of the financial crisis in the summer of 2008 saw Gold prices sell-off sharply, which to many people was a surprise as given the turmoil in the markets and fear for the banking system, Gold should have been attracting safehaven buying. Indeed it was, but the buying could not absorb all the selling on the back of deleveraging that was happening as the market sold liquid assets to pay margin against their less liquid assets. The sell-off saw prices drop to a low of around $682/oz in October 2008, before the buying once again dominated and investors and traders moved into Gold to protect their capital against the uncertainty swirling around the financial markets. After rebounding to $1,006/oz in February 2009, Gold prices then consolidated in a broad sideways range between $865-$990/oz as the market digested what had happened and what was likely to happen going forward. The fact Gold prices have broken out to the upside of this consolidation pattern is bullish for Gold, but is also a warning that the market feels there is more trouble for the financial markets in the weeks and months ahead. Whether this trouble comes in the form of a double dipped recession, a dollar or bond crisis, or stagflation, inflation, or deflation, remains to be seen Factors driving Gold prices The dollar – After the dollar weakness seen between 2006 and mid-2008, the dollar started to rebound in July 2008, (see chart opposite) as risk reduction gathered pace and US companies repatriated assets previously held overseas. In addition, the market turned to its traditional safe-havens which included the dollar. However, the dollar’s rebound ran out of steam as the US’s policies to tackle the financial crisis became clear – notably to push more money into the failing systems and to finance this by borrowing and by means of quantitative easing. The creation of more debt and the increase in money supply by quantitative easing, have not surprisingly raised concern that the dollar is being devalued. In turn the down trend in the dollar has resumed with the dollar falling against most currencies. Interestingly enough, the better- than-expected economic data that has boosted the US equity markets has so far failed to underpin the dollar, which is a sign of deteriorating confidence in the dollar. However, once the US makes it clear that it has a policy to soak up the extra money supply, then the combination of this and economic recovery (when it eventually gets going) is likely to see the dollar turn higher. However, if the prospects for growth and loose monetary policy are also seen as being inflationary, then a stronger dollar will not necessarily mean weaker Gold.
INFLATION FEARS ::
At present, there is little inflation around; indeed, deflation is more in evidence, although the market does not seem too concerned about deflation as the underlying fear is that all the quantitative easing and global stimulus packages will end up being inflationary. Although in theory governments should be able to tighten monetary policy to out- manoeuvre inflation, there is concern that slow growth and high unemployment rates will make it hard for governments to be proactive and any delay in tightening policy when the time come s, could see inflation take hold. As a result, the threat of inflation down the road is another driving force for Gold, even if it may be premature to be too concerned about it at the moment.
De-hedging – At the start of the bull market for Gold, which roughly coincided with the start of de- hedging, the total hedge book stood at 3,107 tonnes (99.9Moz). Eight years later it has already fallen to 458 tonnes (14.7Moz). As the hedge book shrinks the level of de-hedging has not surprisingly slowed, but is still running at around 125 tonnes a year and is likely to continue to provide support next year. However, after years of providing support de-hedging will become less of an issue in the years ahead and then the combination of high Gold prices with improving prospects for economic recovery and therefore less need for safe-havens, could well start to see producers look at re-establishing hedges. Although the current wishes of shareholders of mining companies is for no, or limited, hedging, that might change if the bullish outlook for Gold changes as we move into a new economic era. However, we would expect the next hedging wave to be done via put options and not outright forward/futures sales.
For the moment the mood amongst producers is, in the majority, still bullish for the Gold price in the period ahead.
Central Bank Official Sales –
For the fourth year running sales made under the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) have failed to reach the maximum amount of 500 tonne s allowed by the agreement. In the CBGA year that ended in September 2006, sales were 104 tonnes short of the 500 tonne allowance; in 2006/07 sales fell short by around 24 tonnes; in the 2007/08 period sales were 143 tonnes short of the limit and in the year to 26th September 2009, sales totalled 160 tonne,340 tonnes short of the limit. So for CBGA-2 as a whole , sales of between 1,880 and 1,900 tonnes were some 75% of the permitted 2,500 tonnes. On 7th August, 2009, a ne w fiveyear CBGA was announced by its 19 signatory members, but the annual quota was cut to 400 tonnes, even though the IMF has said it plans to sell its 403.3 tonnes of Gold during CBGA-3. However, with China and Russia looking to increase Gold reserves, net supply from official sales may be limited in the years ahead.
Central Bank diversification –
The global financial crisis has exposed how vulnerable central banks are to the dollar and US Treasuries. As a result, a number of large sovereign holders of US dollars and Treasuries have started to diversify their holding. China surprised the market in April 2009, when it announced its Gold reserves had increased 76% to 1,054 tonnes since 2003, when it held 600 tonnes. However, this higher holding still represents only 1.9% of total reserves. With China holding over $2 trillion of currency reserves and with some 70% of this in dollar denominated assets, China is heavily exposed to the value of the US dollar and not surprisingly is keen to diversify. There is talk that China might buy some of the Gold that the IMF is selling, but China is also likely to prefer to continue buying Gold from its domestic producers. In 2007, China surpassed South Africa as the world’s largest Gold producer with production reaching 282 tonnes in 2008 and rising 13.5% in the first half of 2009. In addition, Russia has continued to build up its Gold reserves. It bought 69 tonnes in 2008 and in the January to August period this year, it has bought a further 62 tonnes. As of September, it held some 568 tonnes, or 4.3% of its reserves. Back in November 2005 it stated that it would be appropriate to hold 10% of its reserves in Gold, which would mean increasing Gold holdings to 1,320 tonnes. Holding 10% of reserves in Gold is about the average that all countries hold although, however, the Euro area holds an average of 59.7%, the US holds 77.4%, while Japan holds just 2.3% and Korea holds just 0.2%.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ::
After a long period of consolidation after the run up to $1,006/oz in February 2009, prices have broken higher out of the triangle and are in the process of setting fresh all time highs. At present prices do not look too extended and the stochastic indicators are looking strong too. The strong rally in August 2007, went from $640/oz to $1,032.50/oz, a move of close to $400/oz, so with this latest bullrun starting around $680/oz a similar run would take prices towards $1,100/oz. As far as pull backs are concerned, the uptrend line at $970/oz should provide support as should the $1,000/oz area. A move below the uptrend line would then suggest a possible pull back to around the $900/oz area, where the 60 week moving average lies. The stochastics did recently cross lower but failed to move down too far and have now crossed higher. A similar situation was seen in January 2009 and after the stochastics crossed higher again price went on to rise $200/oz. With prices breaking into new high ground, we would target $1,250/oz as the next major upside target. (After the move above $850/oz prices climbed 21.5%, so a similar percentage move from $1,032.50/oz is $1,254/oz). Overall we expect Gold to extend its gains, but once the next peak has been established another long period of consolidation is likely to follow as the market adjusts to the price rise.
FORECAST & CONCLUSION ::
Gold is going through a very interesting time, but there are a multitude of factors influencing the price some of which are quite contradictory such as the presence of deflation and the fear of inflation. We also have an uneasy feeling that after the near catastrophic events seen over the past twelve months, the sharp recovery seen since March seems too good to be true and for that reason it probably is. Indeed given the massive governments’ stimulus packages and bailouts mainly paid for with borrowed and printed money, there is considerable uncertainty as to what lies ahead. The global imbalance between those countries that have massive dollar debt and those with huge dollar reserves, is also coming to a head as the US seems set on a path to devalue the dollar by means of quantitative easing. In addition, the weak dollar is prompting competitive currency devaluation and with numerous former ‘hard’ currencies trying to lose value, it is not surprising that faith in fiat currencies is waning and those with money are looking to diversify into assets with intrinsic value, of which Gold and other commodities are top of the list. Indeed this might well be what is driving base metals higher, even though demand is weak and stockpiles are mounting. The fact US dollar creditors are talking about the need for another global reserve currency shows that they are losing faith in the dollar. Overall, given the parlous condition of the world’s financial markets in recent years, it is doubtful that the short-sharp asset-bubble deflation seen in the second half of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, resolved the matter completely. There are still many unsolved problems and imbalances that need to be settled and as there does not seem to be any easy way to fix them, the financial system and the heavily indebted countries are likely to experience more hardship in the future. The Western financial system has always had been founded on confidence, and in 2008 this confidence was shattered. The rebound across markets this year has restored some hope but with many of the underlying issues unresolved, this new dawn may prove false. If events take another turn for the worse, the fear seen in 2008 is likely to be renewed and another flight to safety could well keep the bull market in Gold go ing for a considerable while longer and a take prices considerably higher. It seems likely that there is still a big window of opportunity for Go ld to shine in the months ahead. At some stage, the problems facing the global economy, especially those in the West, will be solved and a return to normality will unfold. When that process begins, safe-haven assets are likely to be sold. However until such time, Gold is likely to remain highly soughtafter as a store of wealth and we would not be surprised to see Gold prices rise to, perhaps significantly, new highs. There are likely to be periods of widespread risk reduction that carry Gold prices lower too, but each dip is expected to attract strong scale down buying from investors and fabricators. Overall, we would expect the bulk of trading between now and the end of 2010 to be within the $850/oz to $1,400/oz range.
INTRODUCTION ::
• The Gold rally continues with prices posting fresh all time highs in early October, the rally is expected to continue within an $850-$1,400/oz trading range in 2010.
• After the turmoil in the financial markets last year a strong rebound has been seen, but with numerous large issues unresolved the rebound seems unsustainable.
• The fact Gold prices are this high suggests there is still a lot of fear in the markets. If a double dipped recession unfolds, prices could have considerably further to run.
• The outlook for Gold remains bullish, as it continues to provide a hedge against weakness in fiat currencies and further turmoil in the markets. It should also provide protection against inflation at a later date.
BRIEF VIEW ::
The onset of the financial crisis in the summer of 2008 saw Gold prices sell-off sharply, which to many people was a surprise as given the turmoil in the markets and fear for the banking system, Gold should have been attracting safehaven buying. Indeed it was, but the buying could not absorb all the selling on the back of deleveraging that was happening as the market sold liquid assets to pay margin against their less liquid assets. The sell-off saw prices drop to a low of around $682/oz in October 2008, before the buying once again dominated and investors and traders moved into Gold to protect their capital against the uncertainty swirling around the financial markets. After rebounding to $1,006/oz in February 2009, Gold prices then consolidated in a broad sideways range between $865-$990/oz as the market digested what had happened and what was likely to happen going forward. The fact Gold prices have broken out to the upside of this consolidation pattern is bullish for Gold, but is also a warning that the market feels there is more trouble for the financial markets in the weeks and months ahead. Whether this trouble comes in the form of a double dipped recession, a dollar or bond crisis, or stagflation, inflation, or deflation, remains to be seen Factors driving Gold prices The dollar – After the dollar weakness seen between 2006 and mid-2008, the dollar started to rebound in July 2008, (see chart opposite) as risk reduction gathered pace and US companies repatriated assets previously held overseas. In addition, the market turned to its traditional safe-havens which included the dollar. However, the dollar’s rebound ran out of steam as the US’s policies to tackle the financial crisis became clear – notably to push more money into the failing systems and to finance this by borrowing and by means of quantitative easing. The creation of more debt and the increase in money supply by quantitative easing, have not surprisingly raised concern that the dollar is being devalued. In turn the down trend in the dollar has resumed with the dollar falling against most currencies. Interestingly enough, the better- than-expected economic data that has boosted the US equity markets has so far failed to underpin the dollar, which is a sign of deteriorating confidence in the dollar. However, once the US makes it clear that it has a policy to soak up the extra money supply, then the combination of this and economic recovery (when it eventually gets going) is likely to see the dollar turn higher. However, if the prospects for growth and loose monetary policy are also seen as being inflationary, then a stronger dollar will not necessarily mean weaker Gold.
INFLATION FEARS ::
At present, there is little inflation around; indeed, deflation is more in evidence, although the market does not seem too concerned about deflation as the underlying fear is that all the quantitative easing and global stimulus packages will end up being inflationary. Although in theory governments should be able to tighten monetary policy to out- manoeuvre inflation, there is concern that slow growth and high unemployment rates will make it hard for governments to be proactive and any delay in tightening policy when the time come s, could see inflation take hold. As a result, the threat of inflation down the road is another driving force for Gold, even if it may be premature to be too concerned about it at the moment.
De-hedging – At the start of the bull market for Gold, which roughly coincided with the start of de- hedging, the total hedge book stood at 3,107 tonnes (99.9Moz). Eight years later it has already fallen to 458 tonnes (14.7Moz). As the hedge book shrinks the level of de-hedging has not surprisingly slowed, but is still running at around 125 tonnes a year and is likely to continue to provide support next year. However, after years of providing support de-hedging will become less of an issue in the years ahead and then the combination of high Gold prices with improving prospects for economic recovery and therefore less need for safe-havens, could well start to see producers look at re-establishing hedges. Although the current wishes of shareholders of mining companies is for no, or limited, hedging, that might change if the bullish outlook for Gold changes as we move into a new economic era. However, we would expect the next hedging wave to be done via put options and not outright forward/futures sales.
For the moment the mood amongst producers is, in the majority, still bullish for the Gold price in the period ahead.
Central Bank Official Sales –
For the fourth year running sales made under the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) have failed to reach the maximum amount of 500 tonne s allowed by the agreement. In the CBGA year that ended in September 2006, sales were 104 tonnes short of the 500 tonne allowance; in 2006/07 sales fell short by around 24 tonnes; in the 2007/08 period sales were 143 tonnes short of the limit and in the year to 26th September 2009, sales totalled 160 tonne,340 tonnes short of the limit. So for CBGA-2 as a whole , sales of between 1,880 and 1,900 tonnes were some 75% of the permitted 2,500 tonnes. On 7th August, 2009, a ne w fiveyear CBGA was announced by its 19 signatory members, but the annual quota was cut to 400 tonnes, even though the IMF has said it plans to sell its 403.3 tonnes of Gold during CBGA-3. However, with China and Russia looking to increase Gold reserves, net supply from official sales may be limited in the years ahead.
Central Bank diversification –
The global financial crisis has exposed how vulnerable central banks are to the dollar and US Treasuries. As a result, a number of large sovereign holders of US dollars and Treasuries have started to diversify their holding. China surprised the market in April 2009, when it announced its Gold reserves had increased 76% to 1,054 tonnes since 2003, when it held 600 tonnes. However, this higher holding still represents only 1.9% of total reserves. With China holding over $2 trillion of currency reserves and with some 70% of this in dollar denominated assets, China is heavily exposed to the value of the US dollar and not surprisingly is keen to diversify. There is talk that China might buy some of the Gold that the IMF is selling, but China is also likely to prefer to continue buying Gold from its domestic producers. In 2007, China surpassed South Africa as the world’s largest Gold producer with production reaching 282 tonnes in 2008 and rising 13.5% in the first half of 2009. In addition, Russia has continued to build up its Gold reserves. It bought 69 tonnes in 2008 and in the January to August period this year, it has bought a further 62 tonnes. As of September, it held some 568 tonnes, or 4.3% of its reserves. Back in November 2005 it stated that it would be appropriate to hold 10% of its reserves in Gold, which would mean increasing Gold holdings to 1,320 tonnes. Holding 10% of reserves in Gold is about the average that all countries hold although, however, the Euro area holds an average of 59.7%, the US holds 77.4%, while Japan holds just 2.3% and Korea holds just 0.2%.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ::
After a long period of consolidation after the run up to $1,006/oz in February 2009, prices have broken higher out of the triangle and are in the process of setting fresh all time highs. At present prices do not look too extended and the stochastic indicators are looking strong too. The strong rally in August 2007, went from $640/oz to $1,032.50/oz, a move of close to $400/oz, so with this latest bullrun starting around $680/oz a similar run would take prices towards $1,100/oz. As far as pull backs are concerned, the uptrend line at $970/oz should provide support as should the $1,000/oz area. A move below the uptrend line would then suggest a possible pull back to around the $900/oz area, where the 60 week moving average lies. The stochastics did recently cross lower but failed to move down too far and have now crossed higher. A similar situation was seen in January 2009 and after the stochastics crossed higher again price went on to rise $200/oz. With prices breaking into new high ground, we would target $1,250/oz as the next major upside target. (After the move above $850/oz prices climbed 21.5%, so a similar percentage move from $1,032.50/oz is $1,254/oz). Overall we expect Gold to extend its gains, but once the next peak has been established another long period of consolidation is likely to follow as the market adjusts to the price rise.
FORECAST & CONCLUSION ::
Gold is going through a very interesting time, but there are a multitude of factors influencing the price some of which are quite contradictory such as the presence of deflation and the fear of inflation. We also have an uneasy feeling that after the near catastrophic events seen over the past twelve months, the sharp recovery seen since March seems too good to be true and for that reason it probably is. Indeed given the massive governments’ stimulus packages and bailouts mainly paid for with borrowed and printed money, there is considerable uncertainty as to what lies ahead. The global imbalance between those countries that have massive dollar debt and those with huge dollar reserves, is also coming to a head as the US seems set on a path to devalue the dollar by means of quantitative easing. In addition, the weak dollar is prompting competitive currency devaluation and with numerous former ‘hard’ currencies trying to lose value, it is not surprising that faith in fiat currencies is waning and those with money are looking to diversify into assets with intrinsic value, of which Gold and other commodities are top of the list. Indeed this might well be what is driving base metals higher, even though demand is weak and stockpiles are mounting. The fact US dollar creditors are talking about the need for another global reserve currency shows that they are losing faith in the dollar. Overall, given the parlous condition of the world’s financial markets in recent years, it is doubtful that the short-sharp asset-bubble deflation seen in the second half of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, resolved the matter completely. There are still many unsolved problems and imbalances that need to be settled and as there does not seem to be any easy way to fix them, the financial system and the heavily indebted countries are likely to experience more hardship in the future. The Western financial system has always had been founded on confidence, and in 2008 this confidence was shattered. The rebound across markets this year has restored some hope but with many of the underlying issues unresolved, this new dawn may prove false. If events take another turn for the worse, the fear seen in 2008 is likely to be renewed and another flight to safety could well keep the bull market in Gold go ing for a considerable while longer and a take prices considerably higher. It seems likely that there is still a big window of opportunity for Go ld to shine in the months ahead. At some stage, the problems facing the global economy, especially those in the West, will be solved and a return to normality will unfold. When that process begins, safe-haven assets are likely to be sold. However until such time, Gold is likely to remain highly soughtafter as a store of wealth and we would not be surprised to see Gold prices rise to, perhaps significantly, new highs. There are likely to be periods of widespread risk reduction that carry Gold prices lower too, but each dip is expected to attract strong scale down buying from investors and fabricators. Overall, we would expect the bulk of trading between now and the end of 2010 to be within the $850/oz to $1,400/oz range.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
VIEWS FOR 29 OCTOBER 2009
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD;-Another support of 1035$ was violated yesterday.
Sell on fall below 1026$ with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 1044$.
Expect lower level of 1015$ to be tested
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-The low of 15.7$ is likely to be tested.
Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 16.77$.
Sell on fall below 16.08$ with high of the day stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Sell on fall below 15810 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 15924 and when it falls below 15924 then sell with high above 15924 as the stop loss.
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-Hold short with a stop loss of 26411.
Sell on rise to 26090-26294 with a stop loss of 26411.
Expect lower range of 25768-25564 to be tested.
In case of close below 25715 with a negative candle, Silver can slide down towards 24312.
MCX Gold Dec:Support at 15797/15828 has held well.Dips to 15843 could be bought with stop loss at 15766 targeting 16105. S1:15803 S2:15723 R1:15963 R2:16043.
MCX Silver Dec: Retracement towards 26318 followed by 26958 levels. Dips to 25758 / 25838 to find support targeting above-mentioned levels.Direct fall below 25758 to result in a further decline towards 25358. S1: 25852 S2: 25722 R1: 26112 R2: 26242.
MCX Copper November: While below 311 expect the decline to continue towards 300.55 levels.Good support will be seen in the 298.50/300.60 zones. S1: 304.30 S2: 300.30 R1: 312.30 R2: 316.30.
MCX Crude November: Ideally 3612 to hold for the rally to resume higher again towards 3798 or even higher. S1: 3639 S2: 3599 R1: 3719 R2: 3759.
MCX Zinc Oct: Rallies to 103.50 -104.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 101 levels.A rise above 106.0 to raise doubts.S1:102.0 S2:101.0 R1:104.00 R2:105.10
Watch out for:
Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence
US GDP/Personal Consumption
Natural Gas Storage Data
GOLD (spot): Last 1032.3
Even as the broad bias remains negative, we are in for some quick choppy consolidation, before the next directional move, with most of the measure downside objectives having met.
Trading Strategies:
Sell at 1032, TGT1029/26
Buy near 1026/24
Sell below 1022. TGT 1014/1005
Buy above 1033.2TGT 1039
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Nymex Crude(Dec): Targets 76.2
Should fall straight away or from 77.4/77.8 towards 76.2. Formation of H&S adds the ideal set up for this move. However, further sell off’s likelihood rests on how well 76 region holds. H&S pattern suggests a fall through, however, it is highly likely this region, being the year’s top for almost 5 months until October month, could hold. A pull back above 78.9 would be a major bullish move.
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Comex Copper (Dec): A feeble swing higher.
Prices area at the lower extremity of the rising trendline, suggesting a pull back higher. However, it would require a push aboce 2.94/5 before such moves would strengthen towards 2.996
NOTE:- THIS WEEKEND WE ARE REALISING OUR 2010 FORCAST AND BIG PICTURE MOVE IN GOLD AND SILVER ANY INTERESTED PERSONS CAN CONTACT OUR CUSTOMER CARE IN THAT CONFERENCE CALL U CAN CLARIFFY YOUR DOUBT WITH OUR RESEARCH ANALYST
Sell on fall below 1026$ with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are holding short positions can keep a stop loss of 1044$.
Expect lower level of 1015$ to be tested
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-The low of 15.7$ is likely to be tested.
Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 16.77$.
Sell on fall below 16.08$ with high of the day stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Sell on fall below 15810 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 15924 and when it falls below 15924 then sell with high above 15924 as the stop loss.
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-Hold short with a stop loss of 26411.
Sell on rise to 26090-26294 with a stop loss of 26411.
Expect lower range of 25768-25564 to be tested.
In case of close below 25715 with a negative candle, Silver can slide down towards 24312.
MCX Gold Dec:Support at 15797/15828 has held well.Dips to 15843 could be bought with stop loss at 15766 targeting 16105. S1:15803 S2:15723 R1:15963 R2:16043.
MCX Silver Dec: Retracement towards 26318 followed by 26958 levels. Dips to 25758 / 25838 to find support targeting above-mentioned levels.Direct fall below 25758 to result in a further decline towards 25358. S1: 25852 S2: 25722 R1: 26112 R2: 26242.
MCX Copper November: While below 311 expect the decline to continue towards 300.55 levels.Good support will be seen in the 298.50/300.60 zones. S1: 304.30 S2: 300.30 R1: 312.30 R2: 316.30.
MCX Crude November: Ideally 3612 to hold for the rally to resume higher again towards 3798 or even higher. S1: 3639 S2: 3599 R1: 3719 R2: 3759.
MCX Zinc Oct: Rallies to 103.50 -104.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 101 levels.A rise above 106.0 to raise doubts.S1:102.0 S2:101.0 R1:104.00 R2:105.10
Watch out for:
Eurozone Business Climate/Consumer Confidence
US GDP/Personal Consumption
Natural Gas Storage Data
GOLD (spot): Last 1032.3
Even as the broad bias remains negative, we are in for some quick choppy consolidation, before the next directional move, with most of the measure downside objectives having met.
Trading Strategies:
Sell at 1032, TGT1029/26
Buy near 1026/24
Sell below 1022. TGT 1014/1005
Buy above 1033.2TGT 1039
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Nymex Crude(Dec): Targets 76.2
Should fall straight away or from 77.4/77.8 towards 76.2. Formation of H&S adds the ideal set up for this move. However, further sell off’s likelihood rests on how well 76 region holds. H&S pattern suggests a fall through, however, it is highly likely this region, being the year’s top for almost 5 months until October month, could hold. A pull back above 78.9 would be a major bullish move.
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Comex Copper (Dec): A feeble swing higher.
Prices area at the lower extremity of the rising trendline, suggesting a pull back higher. However, it would require a push aboce 2.94/5 before such moves would strengthen towards 2.996
NOTE:- THIS WEEKEND WE ARE REALISING OUR 2010 FORCAST AND BIG PICTURE MOVE IN GOLD AND SILVER ANY INTERESTED PERSONS CAN CONTACT OUR CUSTOMER CARE IN THAT CONFERENCE CALL U CAN CLARIFFY YOUR DOUBT WITH OUR RESEARCH ANALYST
Friday, October 9, 2009
OUTLOOK ON COMEX AND MCX GOLD SILVER FOR INTRA MEDIUM AND LONG TERM WITH INTRADAY VIEW FOR 09TH OCTOBER 2009
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON GOLD:-
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD makes a new high, crossing its peak of 1033$ formed in March 2008.
The RSI has moved above the 70 level.
Historically, we have seen that Gold has not sustained the move above 70 level for the long time and near term reaction down is seen.
The breakout spike is in progress which can carry the momentum a bit higher.
In long term the depth of the valley is from 1033$ to 681$ which 352$.
If the project it up from 1033$ then in long term the potential can be rise towards 1385$. All that can happen in long term but in short need to see where the current move could get exhausted.
The long term view can happen with series of higher top and higher bottom with intermediate deeper correction at times.
Yesterday’s low of 1035$ hold the immediate up trend.
In the early morning trades, the price is around 1050$.
Traders stop loss for the day can be 1043$ and the loose stop loss can be 1035$ to hold long positions.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON SILVER;-
International spot price shown the breakout situation on the weekly charts.
If the breakout sustains till the end of the week then expect the lower top and the top to get tested in time to come.
The lower top is placed at 19.46$ and 21.35$
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-A trend line breakout is being attempt yesterday.
Wide intra-day volatility is being witnessed which can be noticed from the daily bar’s wider movement.
The close is above the trend line but further resistance will be at 73.20-73.6$.
Support will be at 70$-68.8$.
One day up and another day down kind of movement is being witnessed.
Yesterday was up then today can be intra-day down unless is sustains above resistance range. Resistance could be tested for intra-day reaction.
Cover short positions on dip to support level as the opportunity arises.
COPPER HIGH GRADE:-The RSI has started moving up on Copper.
Copper has been moving sideways in a wider band of 296.6$-264$.
In last few days, we saw Copper taking support at 264$ and recovering.
Expect the resistance of 296$ to be tested.
USD/INR:-USD INR, USD slips to 46.08 and is now testing the minimum conservative lower target of46.
The head and shoulder pattern coming into existence is going to strengthen rupee overall in medium term.
Near term support is around 46 and then around 45.50.
We could find recovery in USD coming from lower level.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON USD/INR:-
The big picture on USD INR exhibits a head and shoulder pattern which can be of Rs 5 considering its distance from the peak to the neckline.
If that is so and the pattern remains in existence without giving false breakdown situation then the fall can go all the way down to 41.
The picture looks too good to be true.
Therefore, we need to monitor tight as head and shoulder patterns can be deceptive at times.
On conservative basis, expect the lower range of 46.2-46 for immediate near term is possible.
If it sustains below 46 then the slide can get extended towards 44.50 in medium term on USD.
The level of 46.88-47 becomes important resistance. Any rise and sustained close above 47 would confirm a false breakdown situation
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Indecisive spinning top has been formed.
Support will be at 27111-27100.
Sell on fall below 27100 with high of the day stop loss.
Buy on rise above 27500 with low of the day stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-Traders by chance holding long positions can maintain a stop loss at 15758. Look for rise to 15912-15986 to take profit.
Resistance could be witnessed at higher range
INTRA DAYS MOVES ON GOLD COPPER CRUDE;-
GOLD (spot): Leaning down (Last 1047)
1060 levels have attracted selling as anticipated and looks to swing lower. Favoured view expects 1054 to hold upswings for a swing lower towards 1044-39 before any deal of buying evolves. Dollar looks to be bouncing back on the last trading of the weak, offering additional set up for such a bounce back.
Alternatively a pull back above 1054 could rekindle bullishness which would again open room for a retest for 1061 or an extended upswing towards 1080, which looks less favoured now
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Nymex Crude(Nov):
Yesterday’s fall towards 69 evolved on anticipated lines, and the swing higher towards the market close, has failed to close above the declining trendline which is not positive for the counter. However, 71 levels offers an outside to complete a flag formation so that the upswing evolves again. Favoured view expects a 72.4-69.5 range.
Comex Copper (Dec): Last
Yesterday’s bullish breakout has taken us towards 2.90 levels. Today’s near 4% plus reading in Chinese Copper futures looks misleading as it is only catching up with the week long holiday move. Expect range trading in the 2.82-2.90 region
MCX Gold Dec: Support is at 15623 breaks below that prices could test 15503.50/15474. As long as 15623 holds support we could expect 15953. S1: 15689 S2: 15541 R1: 15990 R2: 16140
MCX Silver December: Crucial support is 26882 breaks below that could see prices testing 26530. As long as 26882 holds support we could expect a rally towards 27602/27756. S1: 27046 S2:26795 R1: 27546 R2: 27800
MCX Copper November: Dips to 286/288 to find support for a move higher towards 301.50/302.45, break below 284 will negate this bullish view. S1:290.70 S2: 286.90 R1: 298.90 R2: 302.70.
MCX Crude Oil October: Dips to 3263/3245 to find support for a move higher towards 3379, break below 3208 will negate this bullish view. S1:3284 S2:3244 R1:3364 R2:3404.
MCX Zinc Oct: Dips to 94.30/93.90 to find support for a move higher towards 96.50 /97.0. Fall below
92.0 to create doubts.S1: 93.80 S2: 92.90 R1: 95.80 R2: 96.60
MCX Lead Oct: Dips to 103.5/103.1 to find support for a move higher towards 107 /108 levels.
Fall below 101.5 to negate this bullish view.S1: 103 S2:102 R1: 105 R2:106
MCX Nickel Oct: Dips to 870/866 to find support for a move higher towards 920 levels. Fall below 844
to raise doubts.S1:877 S2:860 R1:910 R2:923.
MCX Natural Gas Oct: Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to 233/235 to find resistance for a move
lower towards 220 / 217 levels. Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to A rise above 241 to make picture
bullish again. S1:227 S2:223 R1:234 R2:238
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD makes a new high, crossing its peak of 1033$ formed in March 2008.
The RSI has moved above the 70 level.
Historically, we have seen that Gold has not sustained the move above 70 level for the long time and near term reaction down is seen.
The breakout spike is in progress which can carry the momentum a bit higher.
In long term the depth of the valley is from 1033$ to 681$ which 352$.
If the project it up from 1033$ then in long term the potential can be rise towards 1385$. All that can happen in long term but in short need to see where the current move could get exhausted.
The long term view can happen with series of higher top and higher bottom with intermediate deeper correction at times.
Yesterday’s low of 1035$ hold the immediate up trend.
In the early morning trades, the price is around 1050$.
Traders stop loss for the day can be 1043$ and the loose stop loss can be 1035$ to hold long positions.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON SILVER;-
International spot price shown the breakout situation on the weekly charts.
If the breakout sustains till the end of the week then expect the lower top and the top to get tested in time to come.
The lower top is placed at 19.46$ and 21.35$
NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-A trend line breakout is being attempt yesterday.
Wide intra-day volatility is being witnessed which can be noticed from the daily bar’s wider movement.
The close is above the trend line but further resistance will be at 73.20-73.6$.
Support will be at 70$-68.8$.
One day up and another day down kind of movement is being witnessed.
Yesterday was up then today can be intra-day down unless is sustains above resistance range. Resistance could be tested for intra-day reaction.
Cover short positions on dip to support level as the opportunity arises.
COPPER HIGH GRADE:-The RSI has started moving up on Copper.
Copper has been moving sideways in a wider band of 296.6$-264$.
In last few days, we saw Copper taking support at 264$ and recovering.
Expect the resistance of 296$ to be tested.
USD/INR:-USD INR, USD slips to 46.08 and is now testing the minimum conservative lower target of46.
The head and shoulder pattern coming into existence is going to strengthen rupee overall in medium term.
Near term support is around 46 and then around 45.50.
We could find recovery in USD coming from lower level.
BIG PICTURE VIEW ON USD/INR:-
The big picture on USD INR exhibits a head and shoulder pattern which can be of Rs 5 considering its distance from the peak to the neckline.
If that is so and the pattern remains in existence without giving false breakdown situation then the fall can go all the way down to 41.
The picture looks too good to be true.
Therefore, we need to monitor tight as head and shoulder patterns can be deceptive at times.
On conservative basis, expect the lower range of 46.2-46 for immediate near term is possible.
If it sustains below 46 then the slide can get extended towards 44.50 in medium term on USD.
The level of 46.88-47 becomes important resistance. Any rise and sustained close above 47 would confirm a false breakdown situation
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-Indecisive spinning top has been formed.
Support will be at 27111-27100.
Sell on fall below 27100 with high of the day stop loss.
Buy on rise above 27500 with low of the day stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-Traders by chance holding long positions can maintain a stop loss at 15758. Look for rise to 15912-15986 to take profit.
Resistance could be witnessed at higher range
INTRA DAYS MOVES ON GOLD COPPER CRUDE;-
GOLD (spot): Leaning down (Last 1047)
1060 levels have attracted selling as anticipated and looks to swing lower. Favoured view expects 1054 to hold upswings for a swing lower towards 1044-39 before any deal of buying evolves. Dollar looks to be bouncing back on the last trading of the weak, offering additional set up for such a bounce back.
Alternatively a pull back above 1054 could rekindle bullishness which would again open room for a retest for 1061 or an extended upswing towards 1080, which looks less favoured now
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nymex Crude(Nov):
Yesterday’s fall towards 69 evolved on anticipated lines, and the swing higher towards the market close, has failed to close above the declining trendline which is not positive for the counter. However, 71 levels offers an outside to complete a flag formation so that the upswing evolves again. Favoured view expects a 72.4-69.5 range.
Comex Copper (Dec): Last
Yesterday’s bullish breakout has taken us towards 2.90 levels. Today’s near 4% plus reading in Chinese Copper futures looks misleading as it is only catching up with the week long holiday move. Expect range trading in the 2.82-2.90 region
MCX Gold Dec: Support is at 15623 breaks below that prices could test 15503.50/15474. As long as 15623 holds support we could expect 15953. S1: 15689 S2: 15541 R1: 15990 R2: 16140
MCX Silver December: Crucial support is 26882 breaks below that could see prices testing 26530. As long as 26882 holds support we could expect a rally towards 27602/27756. S1: 27046 S2:26795 R1: 27546 R2: 27800
MCX Copper November: Dips to 286/288 to find support for a move higher towards 301.50/302.45, break below 284 will negate this bullish view. S1:290.70 S2: 286.90 R1: 298.90 R2: 302.70.
MCX Crude Oil October: Dips to 3263/3245 to find support for a move higher towards 3379, break below 3208 will negate this bullish view. S1:3284 S2:3244 R1:3364 R2:3404.
MCX Zinc Oct: Dips to 94.30/93.90 to find support for a move higher towards 96.50 /97.0. Fall below
92.0 to create doubts.S1: 93.80 S2: 92.90 R1: 95.80 R2: 96.60
MCX Lead Oct: Dips to 103.5/103.1 to find support for a move higher towards 107 /108 levels.
Fall below 101.5 to negate this bullish view.S1: 103 S2:102 R1: 105 R2:106
MCX Nickel Oct: Dips to 870/866 to find support for a move higher towards 920 levels. Fall below 844
to raise doubts.S1:877 S2:860 R1:910 R2:923.
MCX Natural Gas Oct: Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to 233/235 to find resistance for a move
lower towards 220 / 217 levels. Strong Resistance at 241 levels. Rallies to A rise above 241 to make picture
bullish again. S1:227 S2:223 R1:234 R2:238
Monday, October 5, 2009
EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD AND MCX GOLD AND SILVER FOR INTRA DAY AND FOR THE WEEK AEAD
GOLD (spot): +ve bias targetting 1015/6
After all the choppy trades of the last week, repeated attempts to fall past 985 has been unsuccessful which is good for the metal, and has accumulated enough for a straight move towards 1015/6. Strength at this point would be crucial for the next leap which could either be a one day spike towards 1032/6 for a sharp fall, or continued and powerful rises.
Favoured view expects 1015/6 and may be 1032/5, but beyond that visibility is blurred at this point.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nymex Crude(Nov): Expect upswings before more falls
Another choppy day is in store. However if prices manage to float above 70.8 expect the momentum to continue upward towards 71.8/72, and perhaps 74.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comex Copper (Dec): Expect upswings before more falls
2.64 region likelyto hold for an upswing towards 2.70 initally and in an extended scenario 2.81 for a turn lower
SPOT GOLD:-Support will be at 990$-982$.
Resistance will be at 1009$, 1019$ and 1024-1033$.
Earlier breakout point was 990$ and subsequently Gold has managed to remain above it as shown by the horizontal line.
Use rise to book profit on long positions held earlier at resistance level as the opportunity arises.
SPOT SILVER:-Since the low of 8.4$, Silver has been making higher top and higher bottom but the angle of ascent looks more to be pullback of the fall from 21.35$ to 8.4$.
Support will be at 15.7$.
Resistance will be at 16.74$-17.3$-17.66$.
Use rise to take profit on long positions and maintain a stop loss of 15.7$
ALLUMINUM LME :-The rise look more to be a corrective in nature.
ALUMINUM must not fall below 1700$. If it does then it can move back down to lower level with lower top and lower top formation.
Immediate support is at 1774$.
Resistance will be at 1895$.
Immediately, Aluminum must cross 1895$.
LEAD LME;-The monthly chart display the 50% pullback of the fall from the peak of 3885$ to 850$ has been tested.
50% retracement level was placed at 2365$ and high made was 2511$. Currently a correction of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is being witnessed.
Last close was at 2115$.
Last month low was at 2020$ where support could be witnessed. Overall a sideways to correction behavior of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is likely to be witnessed
NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has already been into a correction of the rise from 9325$ to 21150$.
The 38.2$ retracement has been tested.
Support is being witnessed around 16800$-16225$.
Resistance will be at 17900$-18130$.
A rise and close above 18130$ can begin the rise or the rise can still be a part of correction movement from the recent peak of 21150$.
Possibility of resistance to be tested in near term is possible
ZINC LME:-The monthly chart shows the trend line breakout.
Support will be at 1850$ and 1780$-1745$.
Resistance will be at 1935$-2007$.
A breakout and close above 2007$ can confirm the breakout. If that happens then rally could get extended towards 2410$ which is the 38.2% retracement of the fall from the peak of 4600$ to 1058$.
COPPER LME:-A channeled up move was seen in the rally that began from 2815$ to 6540$.
Support of 5815$ which was the higher bottom is being tested and so also the lower channel line.
Expect selling pressure to increase if the support of 5800$ is violated on closing basis with negative candle.
If the recovery has to be witnessed then it can be from current level for sideways movement at least.
Traders willing to take risk can buy at current level or at 5815 with a stop loss of 5800$.
Resistance will be at 5970$-6100$-6200$. In case of rise and close above 6200$ then sideways movement could continue to test the recent high
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 25715.
Hold long positions with a stop loss 25715 and use rise to 26080-26186 to exit long.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26570
GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15535.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15737.
Traders who are already holding long position can look for rise to 15686 or above can be used to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise above 15740
WEEKLY MCX Gold Dec : Base might have been seen in the 15267 / 15298 region. Rally to 16182 might begin this week. Price needs to fall below 15167 to hint at failure of this bullish expectation. Next supports are near 14957 / 14926. S1: 15475 S2: 15350 R1:15675 R2: 15750
WEEKLY:- MCX Silver December: Supports at 25379/24897 could hold corrective dips for next upturn that could develop into a rally towards 28913.Fall below 24736 is needed to hint that this bullish view might not be valid as the structure would have weakened more than expected. S1: 25820 S2: 25545 R1: 26095 R2: 26370.
WEEKLY;-MCX Copper Nov: Rise above 290 should see the price attempting recovery. Resistance is at 296.35/296.60 and 300.30.It has to rise above 300.50 to suggest that the corrective dip might have ended and the next rally might have begun.Fall below 281.60 would show that it could fall further to 272.90 or even lower. S1: 282.20 S2: 279.20 R1: 288.90 R2: 292.75.
MCX Natural Gas Oct : Dips 223 / 220 to find support for a move higher towards 232 235 levels .Fall below 214 to negate this view. S1: 221 S2:217 R1:229 R2:234
MCX Nickel Oct : While above 824 , expect prices to rally towards 850 / 855 levels . Fall below 824 to turn the picture bearish S1: 825 S2:812 R1: 847 R2: 860
MCX Zinc Oct: While above 89.30 , expect prices to rally towards 91.30 / 91.75 levels .Fall below 89.30 to negate this bullish view. S1:89.35 S2:88.40 R1:91.25 R2:92.50
MCX Lead Oct : Supports at 102.50 , while above 101.40 , expect prices to rally towards 105.40 .Fall below 101.40 to negate this bullish view. S1:102.0 S2: 101.0 R1:104.10 R2: 105.20
After all the choppy trades of the last week, repeated attempts to fall past 985 has been unsuccessful which is good for the metal, and has accumulated enough for a straight move towards 1015/6. Strength at this point would be crucial for the next leap which could either be a one day spike towards 1032/6 for a sharp fall, or continued and powerful rises.
Favoured view expects 1015/6 and may be 1032/5, but beyond that visibility is blurred at this point.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nymex Crude(Nov): Expect upswings before more falls
Another choppy day is in store. However if prices manage to float above 70.8 expect the momentum to continue upward towards 71.8/72, and perhaps 74.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comex Copper (Dec): Expect upswings before more falls
2.64 region likelyto hold for an upswing towards 2.70 initally and in an extended scenario 2.81 for a turn lower
SPOT GOLD:-Support will be at 990$-982$.
Resistance will be at 1009$, 1019$ and 1024-1033$.
Earlier breakout point was 990$ and subsequently Gold has managed to remain above it as shown by the horizontal line.
Use rise to book profit on long positions held earlier at resistance level as the opportunity arises.
SPOT SILVER:-Since the low of 8.4$, Silver has been making higher top and higher bottom but the angle of ascent looks more to be pullback of the fall from 21.35$ to 8.4$.
Support will be at 15.7$.
Resistance will be at 16.74$-17.3$-17.66$.
Use rise to take profit on long positions and maintain a stop loss of 15.7$
ALLUMINUM LME :-The rise look more to be a corrective in nature.
ALUMINUM must not fall below 1700$. If it does then it can move back down to lower level with lower top and lower top formation.
Immediate support is at 1774$.
Resistance will be at 1895$.
Immediately, Aluminum must cross 1895$.
LEAD LME;-The monthly chart display the 50% pullback of the fall from the peak of 3885$ to 850$ has been tested.
50% retracement level was placed at 2365$ and high made was 2511$. Currently a correction of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is being witnessed.
Last close was at 2115$.
Last month low was at 2020$ where support could be witnessed. Overall a sideways to correction behavior of the rise from 850$ to 2511$ is likely to be witnessed
NICKLE LME:-NICKEL has already been into a correction of the rise from 9325$ to 21150$.
The 38.2$ retracement has been tested.
Support is being witnessed around 16800$-16225$.
Resistance will be at 17900$-18130$.
A rise and close above 18130$ can begin the rise or the rise can still be a part of correction movement from the recent peak of 21150$.
Possibility of resistance to be tested in near term is possible
ZINC LME:-The monthly chart shows the trend line breakout.
Support will be at 1850$ and 1780$-1745$.
Resistance will be at 1935$-2007$.
A breakout and close above 2007$ can confirm the breakout. If that happens then rally could get extended towards 2410$ which is the 38.2% retracement of the fall from the peak of 4600$ to 1058$.
COPPER LME:-A channeled up move was seen in the rally that began from 2815$ to 6540$.
Support of 5815$ which was the higher bottom is being tested and so also the lower channel line.
Expect selling pressure to increase if the support of 5800$ is violated on closing basis with negative candle.
If the recovery has to be witnessed then it can be from current level for sideways movement at least.
Traders willing to take risk can buy at current level or at 5815 with a stop loss of 5800$.
Resistance will be at 5970$-6100$-6200$. In case of rise and close above 6200$ then sideways movement could continue to test the recent high
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Support will be at 25715.
Hold long positions with a stop loss 25715 and use rise to 26080-26186 to exit long.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26570
GOLD MCX TRADING STRATERGY:-Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15535.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15737.
Traders who are already holding long position can look for rise to 15686 or above can be used to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise above 15740
WEEKLY MCX Gold Dec : Base might have been seen in the 15267 / 15298 region. Rally to 16182 might begin this week. Price needs to fall below 15167 to hint at failure of this bullish expectation. Next supports are near 14957 / 14926. S1: 15475 S2: 15350 R1:15675 R2: 15750
WEEKLY:- MCX Silver December: Supports at 25379/24897 could hold corrective dips for next upturn that could develop into a rally towards 28913.Fall below 24736 is needed to hint that this bullish view might not be valid as the structure would have weakened more than expected. S1: 25820 S2: 25545 R1: 26095 R2: 26370.
WEEKLY;-MCX Copper Nov: Rise above 290 should see the price attempting recovery. Resistance is at 296.35/296.60 and 300.30.It has to rise above 300.50 to suggest that the corrective dip might have ended and the next rally might have begun.Fall below 281.60 would show that it could fall further to 272.90 or even lower. S1: 282.20 S2: 279.20 R1: 288.90 R2: 292.75.
MCX Natural Gas Oct : Dips 223 / 220 to find support for a move higher towards 232 235 levels .Fall below 214 to negate this view. S1: 221 S2:217 R1:229 R2:234
MCX Nickel Oct : While above 824 , expect prices to rally towards 850 / 855 levels . Fall below 824 to turn the picture bearish S1: 825 S2:812 R1: 847 R2: 860
MCX Zinc Oct: While above 89.30 , expect prices to rally towards 91.30 / 91.75 levels .Fall below 89.30 to negate this bullish view. S1:89.35 S2:88.40 R1:91.25 R2:92.50
MCX Lead Oct : Supports at 102.50 , while above 101.40 , expect prices to rally towards 105.40 .Fall below 101.40 to negate this bullish view. S1:102.0 S2: 101.0 R1:104.10 R2: 105.20
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
VIEWS FOR 10TH SEPTEMBER 2009
MCX Gold Oct: Fall below 15650 has caused some doubts on the bullishness. However, big picture still remains bullish for 16190. Supports at 15530/15515 to hold for 15675 followed by 16115. Direct fall below 15485 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 15622 S2: 15565 R1:15692 R2: 15755
MCX Silver December: Though 26250 was broken; the structure looks to consolidate once again. Only a fall below 26105 to dent our bullish expectations. Favored view expects a test of 28125 as long as supports hold. S1: 26215 S2: 25853 R1: 26660 R2: 27020
MCX Copper Nov: Critical support at 308. Fall below here could drag prices lower again. As long as this support holds, look for 326. S1: 309.50 S2: 304.25 R1: 315 R2: 319.20
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Important support at 3431 now. Fall below here to take prices lower again. Direct rise above 3524 to take it to 3545/3575 levels. S1:3430 S2:3382 R1:3512 R2:3564
MCX Zinc sept: Support is at 94.50/94.25. Failure to hold support here could drag prices lower towards 93.50/92.80. Resistance is at 95.75/96.50 levels now. S1: 94.35 S2: 93.45 R1: 96.00 R2: 97.10
MCX Lead Sept: Supports are at 115.25 and 114.25. Fall below 114 could see a move lower towards 112 or even 110. Immediate resistance is at 118 levels now. S1:115.20 S2: 114.25 R1:117.75 R2:119.20
MCX Nickel Sept: Support is at 865/855 levels now. A fall below 855 could see support at 830 levels now. As long as supports hold there is a chance for a rally towards 910/922 levels. S1:862 S2:845 R1:892 R2:910
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Immediate support is at 134 followed by 129. As long as support at 130/129 levels hold we could expect a rally towards resistance at 151/153 levels. S1:134 S2:129 R1:144.40 R2:148.50
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER ::
Indecisive spinning top candle formation is being witnessed.
The 14 day RSI is still above the 70 level. As it has been above the 70 level the rally has been witnessed. Now, the RSI has to move below the 70 level for the correction or sideways movement.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 27018 with low of the day stop loss.
[[[ LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD :: (VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN, MUNNABHAI ANALYST GROUP ]]]
MCX Silver December: Though 26250 was broken; the structure looks to consolidate once again. Only a fall below 26105 to dent our bullish expectations. Favored view expects a test of 28125 as long as supports hold. S1: 26215 S2: 25853 R1: 26660 R2: 27020
MCX Copper Nov: Critical support at 308. Fall below here could drag prices lower again. As long as this support holds, look for 326. S1: 309.50 S2: 304.25 R1: 315 R2: 319.20
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Important support at 3431 now. Fall below here to take prices lower again. Direct rise above 3524 to take it to 3545/3575 levels. S1:3430 S2:3382 R1:3512 R2:3564
MCX Zinc sept: Support is at 94.50/94.25. Failure to hold support here could drag prices lower towards 93.50/92.80. Resistance is at 95.75/96.50 levels now. S1: 94.35 S2: 93.45 R1: 96.00 R2: 97.10
MCX Lead Sept: Supports are at 115.25 and 114.25. Fall below 114 could see a move lower towards 112 or even 110. Immediate resistance is at 118 levels now. S1:115.20 S2: 114.25 R1:117.75 R2:119.20
MCX Nickel Sept: Support is at 865/855 levels now. A fall below 855 could see support at 830 levels now. As long as supports hold there is a chance for a rally towards 910/922 levels. S1:862 S2:845 R1:892 R2:910
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Immediate support is at 134 followed by 129. As long as support at 130/129 levels hold we could expect a rally towards resistance at 151/153 levels. S1:134 S2:129 R1:144.40 R2:148.50
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER ::
Indecisive spinning top candle formation is being witnessed.
The 14 day RSI is still above the 70 level. As it has been above the 70 level the rally has been witnessed. Now, the RSI has to move below the 70 level for the correction or sideways movement.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 27018 with low of the day stop loss.
[[[ LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD :: (VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN, MUNNABHAI ANALYST GROUP ]]]
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
VIEWS FOR 8TH SEPTEMBER 2009
MCX Gold Oct: Immediate support is at 15610/15570. A breach of the same could see a drift lower to supports at 15495 followed by 15360/15340. These levels could hold for a test of 16015 or even higher. Immediate resistance is at 15872 levels now. S1: 15688 S2: 15606 R1:15795 R2: 15872
MCX Silver December: Immediate support is at 25992. While above this level we can expect a move towards 27280.A breach of 25990 could see a test of firm supports at 25510 / 25270. S1: 26110 S2: 25720 R1: 26540 R2: 26972
MCX Copper Nov: The big picture trend is up for levels above 323 or 329 but the momentum is bearish in weekly & daily charts hinting at a drift to 304 or ideally towards 290. Next rally might start after this corrective decline. It has to fall below 286 to give up the bullish expectation.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3400. Favoured view expects a decline towards 3197 or 3151. It has to rise above 3487 to suggest that price might find it difficult to decline as per this view. S1:3290 S2:3247 R1:3354 R2:3400
MCX Zinc sept: While below 94.50 / 95.00 we could see a drift lower towards supports at 91.40 or 90.50. Direct rise above 95.00 to see prices rising again. S1: 92.90 S2: 91.80 R1: 94.30 R2: 95.10
MCX Lead Sept: A fall below 112.70 could see a drift lower to next supports at 110 or even 108. Resistance is at 116 levels and a direct rise above the same could see prices edge higher without the initial dip. S1:113.20 S2: 112.15 R1:115.30 R2:116.50
MCX Nickel Sept: Prices have found support at 857/855 levels. A fall below 855 could see support at 830 levels now. As long as 855 holds we could expect a corrective rally towards 893/903 levels. S1:860 S2:844 R1:885 R2:906
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A break above 137 would be required to spark a corrective rally towards resistance at 155 levels. Supports are at 124/120 levels now. S1:127.60 S2:124 R1:137.00 R2:143.00
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - Resistance is at 520/ 525 levels. A breach of 525 would be required to see prices rally towards 535. On the other hand a direct fall below 513 could see a move lower towards 508. S1:- 512.90 S2:- 508 R1:- 520 R2:- 525
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX OCTOBER ::
Traders holding long positions can hold long with a stop loss of 15630.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15806.
SILVER MCX DECEMBER ::
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 25656.
Book profit on rise towards 26506-26869 range as the opportunity arises.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26444 with low of the day stop loss.
INT. SPOT GOLD ::
Hold long positions with a stop loss 985$ and look for rise to 1005$ or above to take profit.
Traders can buy on rise above 998$ with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout or 985$ whichever is lower.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Resistance will be at 16.40$.
Support will be at 16.10$-15.8$.
Traders can Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15.80$ or book profits.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 16.50$.
[[[ LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD :: (VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN, MUNNABHAI ANALYST GROUP ]]]
ENJOY !!!!
MCX Silver December: Immediate support is at 25992. While above this level we can expect a move towards 27280.A breach of 25990 could see a test of firm supports at 25510 / 25270. S1: 26110 S2: 25720 R1: 26540 R2: 26972
MCX Copper Nov: The big picture trend is up for levels above 323 or 329 but the momentum is bearish in weekly & daily charts hinting at a drift to 304 or ideally towards 290. Next rally might start after this corrective decline. It has to fall below 286 to give up the bullish expectation.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3400. Favoured view expects a decline towards 3197 or 3151. It has to rise above 3487 to suggest that price might find it difficult to decline as per this view. S1:3290 S2:3247 R1:3354 R2:3400
MCX Zinc sept: While below 94.50 / 95.00 we could see a drift lower towards supports at 91.40 or 90.50. Direct rise above 95.00 to see prices rising again. S1: 92.90 S2: 91.80 R1: 94.30 R2: 95.10
MCX Lead Sept: A fall below 112.70 could see a drift lower to next supports at 110 or even 108. Resistance is at 116 levels and a direct rise above the same could see prices edge higher without the initial dip. S1:113.20 S2: 112.15 R1:115.30 R2:116.50
MCX Nickel Sept: Prices have found support at 857/855 levels. A fall below 855 could see support at 830 levels now. As long as 855 holds we could expect a corrective rally towards 893/903 levels. S1:860 S2:844 R1:885 R2:906
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A break above 137 would be required to spark a corrective rally towards resistance at 155 levels. Supports are at 124/120 levels now. S1:127.60 S2:124 R1:137.00 R2:143.00
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - Resistance is at 520/ 525 levels. A breach of 525 would be required to see prices rally towards 535. On the other hand a direct fall below 513 could see a move lower towards 508. S1:- 512.90 S2:- 508 R1:- 520 R2:- 525
TRADING STRATEGY ::
GOLD MCX OCTOBER ::
Traders holding long positions can hold long with a stop loss of 15630.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15806.
SILVER MCX DECEMBER ::
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 25656.
Book profit on rise towards 26506-26869 range as the opportunity arises.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26444 with low of the day stop loss.
INT. SPOT GOLD ::
Hold long positions with a stop loss 985$ and look for rise to 1005$ or above to take profit.
Traders can buy on rise above 998$ with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout or 985$ whichever is lower.
INT. SPOT SILVER ::
Resistance will be at 16.40$.
Support will be at 16.10$-15.8$.
Traders can Hold long positions with a stop loss of 15.80$ or book profits.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 16.50$.
[[[ LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD :: (VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN, MUNNABHAI ANALYST GROUP ]]]
ENJOY !!!!
Monday, September 7, 2009
VIEWS FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 7TH SEPTEMBER 2009
MCX Gold Oct: Immediate support is at 15630. A breach of the same could see a drift lower to supports at 15550 followed by 15425/15393.These levels could hold for a test of 16010 or even higher. Fall below 15390 to see prices correct further towards supports at 15265. S1: 15668 S2: 15566 R1:15795 R2: 15892
MCX Silver December: We could see the price drifting to supports near 25567 or even 24922 before next rise towards 26615 or 27342. It has to fall below 24760 to give up this bullish expectation as price might find it difficult to rise as expected. S1: 25720 S2: 25430 R1: 26320 R2: 26740
MCX Copper Nov: The big picture trend is up for levels above 323 or 329 but the momentum is bearish in weekly & daily charts hinting at a drift to 304 or ideally towards 290. Next rally might start after this corrective decline. It has to fall below 286 to give up the bullish expectation.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3400. Favoured view expects a decline towards 197 or 3151. It has to rise above 3487 to suggest that price .might find it difficult to decline as per this view. S1:3290 S2:3249 R1:3348 R2:3400
MCX Zinc sept: While above 92.00 prices could stay firm and test resistance at 95.00. Fall below 92.00 could see a move lower towards next supports at 91.00 / 90.50. S1: 92.90 S2: 92.00 R1: 94.30 R2: 95.10
MCX Lead Sept: As long as support at 111/110.10 hold prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 116.50 again. Fall below 110.00 could see a drift lower to next supports at 106.40. S1:113.00 S2: 112.15 R1:115.30 R2:116.50
MCX Nickel Sept: Prices have found support at 860/857 levels. We can expect a corrective rally towards 901/910 levels as long as supports hold. S1:860 S2:844 R1:888 R2:906
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A break above 140 could spark a corrective rally towards resistance at 155 levels. Supports are at 128/124 levels now. S1:130.00 S2:124 R1:140.00 R2:145.90
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - Resistance is at 525/ 529 levels. A breach of 529 would be required to see prices rally towards 535. On the other hand a direct fall below 513 could see a move lower towards 508. S1:- 513 S2:- 508 R1:- 524 R2:- 530
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER :: Hold long positions with a stop loss of 25656.
Book profit on rise towards 26506-26869 range as the opportunity arises.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26444 with low of the day stop loss.
GOLD MCX OCTOBER :: Traders holding long positions can hold long with a stop loss of 15630.
Resistance will be at 15806-15900-15929.
Traders holding long positions can take profit on rise to 15900 or above as the opportunity arises.
Corrective dip to 15646 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15600.
INT. SPOT SILVER :: Last week, Silver exhibited a trend line breakout as shown in the chart.
It has tested 61.8% retracement level of the fall from peak of 21.24$ to 8.42$.
Resistance is likely to be witnessed at current levels.
Traders holding long positions can keep a stop loss of 15.8$ and Book on rise from current price to 16.50$ as the opportunity arises.
INT. SPOT GOLD :: A breakout and close above the trend line and the lower top of 971$ was witnessed last week.
The historical peak was at 1030$ formed in March 2008.
Further lower top was formed in Feb’09 at 1005$.
Last week a breakout and close above 971$ has generated a potential to test 1005$.
The high registered on breakout above 971$ last week was 997.2$.
On Friday the movement was narrow within the Thursday’s movement and before its high of 997.2$.
Traders who are holding long positions need to maintain a stop loss of 985$.
Traders can Book profits at 1005$ and 1030$ as and when the opportunity arise during the week.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS :: On the monthly chart, the current month candle is in progress and will change as the price move till the month is not complete.
The high of the Sept’09 month till now is placed at 3.017$.
A recovery was seen on Friday from the low of 2.409$ to closed at 2.728$ was seen.
Traders who are holding short positions for the time being can cover short at current price and on dip towards 2.409$ as the opportunity arises.
A minor pullback towards 2.81$-2.91$ could be witnessed.
Sell on rise to 2.81-$2.91$ with a stop loss of 3.017$.
Sell further on fall below 2.40$. On further fall below 2.40$ expect a slide towards 1.982$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL :: Support will be at 67.05$-66$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 70$.
Sell on fall below 66$ with high of the day stop loss.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!!
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE !!!
MCX Silver December: We could see the price drifting to supports near 25567 or even 24922 before next rise towards 26615 or 27342. It has to fall below 24760 to give up this bullish expectation as price might find it difficult to rise as expected. S1: 25720 S2: 25430 R1: 26320 R2: 26740
MCX Copper Nov: The big picture trend is up for levels above 323 or 329 but the momentum is bearish in weekly & daily charts hinting at a drift to 304 or ideally towards 290. Next rally might start after this corrective decline. It has to fall below 286 to give up the bullish expectation.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3400. Favoured view expects a decline towards 197 or 3151. It has to rise above 3487 to suggest that price .might find it difficult to decline as per this view. S1:3290 S2:3249 R1:3348 R2:3400
MCX Zinc sept: While above 92.00 prices could stay firm and test resistance at 95.00. Fall below 92.00 could see a move lower towards next supports at 91.00 / 90.50. S1: 92.90 S2: 92.00 R1: 94.30 R2: 95.10
MCX Lead Sept: As long as support at 111/110.10 hold prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 116.50 again. Fall below 110.00 could see a drift lower to next supports at 106.40. S1:113.00 S2: 112.15 R1:115.30 R2:116.50
MCX Nickel Sept: Prices have found support at 860/857 levels. We can expect a corrective rally towards 901/910 levels as long as supports hold. S1:860 S2:844 R1:888 R2:906
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A break above 140 could spark a corrective rally towards resistance at 155 levels. Supports are at 128/124 levels now. S1:130.00 S2:124 R1:140.00 R2:145.90
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - Resistance is at 525/ 529 levels. A breach of 529 would be required to see prices rally towards 535. On the other hand a direct fall below 513 could see a move lower towards 508. S1:- 513 S2:- 508 R1:- 524 R2:- 530
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER :: Hold long positions with a stop loss of 25656.
Book profit on rise towards 26506-26869 range as the opportunity arises.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 26444 with low of the day stop loss.
GOLD MCX OCTOBER :: Traders holding long positions can hold long with a stop loss of 15630.
Resistance will be at 15806-15900-15929.
Traders holding long positions can take profit on rise to 15900 or above as the opportunity arises.
Corrective dip to 15646 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15600.
INT. SPOT SILVER :: Last week, Silver exhibited a trend line breakout as shown in the chart.
It has tested 61.8% retracement level of the fall from peak of 21.24$ to 8.42$.
Resistance is likely to be witnessed at current levels.
Traders holding long positions can keep a stop loss of 15.8$ and Book on rise from current price to 16.50$ as the opportunity arises.
INT. SPOT GOLD :: A breakout and close above the trend line and the lower top of 971$ was witnessed last week.
The historical peak was at 1030$ formed in March 2008.
Further lower top was formed in Feb’09 at 1005$.
Last week a breakout and close above 971$ has generated a potential to test 1005$.
The high registered on breakout above 971$ last week was 997.2$.
On Friday the movement was narrow within the Thursday’s movement and before its high of 997.2$.
Traders who are holding long positions need to maintain a stop loss of 985$.
Traders can Book profits at 1005$ and 1030$ as and when the opportunity arise during the week.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS :: On the monthly chart, the current month candle is in progress and will change as the price move till the month is not complete.
The high of the Sept’09 month till now is placed at 3.017$.
A recovery was seen on Friday from the low of 2.409$ to closed at 2.728$ was seen.
Traders who are holding short positions for the time being can cover short at current price and on dip towards 2.409$ as the opportunity arises.
A minor pullback towards 2.81$-2.91$ could be witnessed.
Sell on rise to 2.81-$2.91$ with a stop loss of 3.017$.
Sell further on fall below 2.40$. On further fall below 2.40$ expect a slide towards 1.982$.
NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL :: Support will be at 67.05$-66$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 70$.
Sell on fall below 66$ with high of the day stop loss.
ENJOY TRADING !!!!!
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE !!!
Friday, September 4, 2009
EXPECTATION OF COMEX GOLD AND MCX GOLD WITH LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD AND NATURAL GAS AS ON 4 TH OF SEPT
MCX Gold Oct: Supports are at 15540 followed by 15410. Supports could hold for a test of 15992 or even higher. Fall below 15400 to see prices correct towards supports at 15280-15250. S1: 15668 S2: 15566 R1:15806 R2: 15892
MCX Silver December: Supports are seen at 25002/24775. While above these levels prices could stay firm. A break above 26325 could see a move higher towards 26940/27261. Fall below 24770 could see prices correct further towards 24518/24422. S1: 25680 S2: 25240 R1: 26250 R2: 26740
MCX Copper Nov: A breach of 315 could see a move higher towards 323. Supports are at 306 / 301.50. Fall below 300.50 to see prices edge lower again.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3316 followed by 3280. Ideally, a pullback towards 3423 or even higher towards 3455 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3420
MCX Zinc sept: Dips to 90.20 / 89.65 could find support for a move higher towards 93.00. Fall below 89.15 to set in a bearish tone. S1: 90.70 S2: 89.65 R1: 92.40 R2: 93.20
MCX Lead Sept: Resistance is now seen at 114 followed by 116 levels. Dips to 108 / 106 could find support. Direct fall below 105.80 could see prices correct further towards 103 or even 100 levels. S1:110.20 S2: 108 R1:113.15 R2:114.30
MCX Nickel Sept: As long as support at 870/868 hold prices could rise in correction towards 920 or even 938. A fall below 868 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:882 S2:868 R1:910 R2:938
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - A fall below 514 could see prices weaken towards 508 levels. Resistance is at 525/ 529 levels. A breach of 529 would be required to see prices rally further. S1:- 514 S2:- 509 R1:- 524 R2:- 530.80
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER :: Corrective dip to 25774-25298 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 24934. Expect higher range of 26614-27090 to be tested.
The monthly chart below shows that the peak range of 27230-27500 will be tested.
The daily chart shows the 2 point 1.618 upside retracement level target is 27122. A breakout seen a few days back with huge volumes and further follow also witnessed which had resulted into a rise to current levels.
Higher levels should be used to take profit if holding long positions
GOLD MCX OCTOBER :: Expect a rise to test daily upper level of 15900-16022 range.
Corrective dip to 15680-15555 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15464. The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.
The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.
Gold on the continuous chart shows that the peak of 16036 is now round the corner with 250 odd points away.
The next major resistance will be at 16036.
On the daily chart of October contract, the resistance will be at 15929 and the peak in October’09 contract is 16200. Expect profits booking at higher range of 15929-16200 range.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::
We have seen important trend line getting violated in the current month in 3 trading days.
The high in the current month is at 3.017$.
As a result of the breakout, Natural Gas is expect to move in the purple box shown in the chart which has the price range of 1.86$-1.59$.
The close as on 3/09/09 is 2.50800$.
Medium term short stop loss remains at 3.017$
The 100% projection as shown by orange color line is placed at 1.96$. Therefore, on the whole further decline is still likely with volatility.
Unless 3.017$ is not crossed fall will not be arrested till 1.96$ at least
MCX Silver December: Supports are seen at 25002/24775. While above these levels prices could stay firm. A break above 26325 could see a move higher towards 26940/27261. Fall below 24770 could see prices correct further towards 24518/24422. S1: 25680 S2: 25240 R1: 26250 R2: 26740
MCX Copper Nov: A breach of 315 could see a move higher towards 323. Supports are at 306 / 301.50. Fall below 300.50 to see prices edge lower again.S1: 307 S2: 301 R1: 313 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3316 followed by 3280. Ideally, a pullback towards 3423 or even higher towards 3455 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3420
MCX Zinc sept: Dips to 90.20 / 89.65 could find support for a move higher towards 93.00. Fall below 89.15 to set in a bearish tone. S1: 90.70 S2: 89.65 R1: 92.40 R2: 93.20
MCX Lead Sept: Resistance is now seen at 114 followed by 116 levels. Dips to 108 / 106 could find support. Direct fall below 105.80 could see prices correct further towards 103 or even 100 levels. S1:110.20 S2: 108 R1:113.15 R2:114.30
MCX Nickel Sept: As long as support at 870/868 hold prices could rise in correction towards 920 or even 938. A fall below 868 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:882 S2:868 R1:910 R2:938
MCX Mentha Oil Sept : - A fall below 514 could see prices weaken towards 508 levels. Resistance is at 525/ 529 levels. A breach of 529 would be required to see prices rally further. S1:- 514 S2:- 509 R1:- 524 R2:- 530.80
TRADING STRATEGY ::
SILVER MCX DECEMBER :: Corrective dip to 25774-25298 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 24934. Expect higher range of 26614-27090 to be tested.
The monthly chart below shows that the peak range of 27230-27500 will be tested.
The daily chart shows the 2 point 1.618 upside retracement level target is 27122. A breakout seen a few days back with huge volumes and further follow also witnessed which had resulted into a rise to current levels.
Higher levels should be used to take profit if holding long positions
GOLD MCX OCTOBER :: Expect a rise to test daily upper level of 15900-16022 range.
Corrective dip to 15680-15555 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15464. The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.
The monthly chart below since 2004 shows a sustained rally irrespective of short to medium term volatility and correction.
Gold on the continuous chart shows that the peak of 16036 is now round the corner with 250 odd points away.
The next major resistance will be at 16036.
On the daily chart of October contract, the resistance will be at 15929 and the peak in October’09 contract is 16200. Expect profits booking at higher range of 15929-16200 range.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::
We have seen important trend line getting violated in the current month in 3 trading days.
The high in the current month is at 3.017$.
As a result of the breakout, Natural Gas is expect to move in the purple box shown in the chart which has the price range of 1.86$-1.59$.
The close as on 3/09/09 is 2.50800$.
Medium term short stop loss remains at 3.017$
The 100% projection as shown by orange color line is placed at 1.96$. Therefore, on the whole further decline is still likely with volatility.
Unless 3.017$ is not crossed fall will not be arrested till 1.96$ at least
Thursday, September 3, 2009
VIEWS FOR 3RD SEPTEMBER ::: MCX AND COMEX VIEW WITH TRADING STRATERGY WITH LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD
MCX Gold Oct: Supports are at 15425 followed by 15346. Supports to hold for a test of 15758 or even higher. S1: 15458 S2: 15374 R1:15546 R2: 15602
MCX Silver December: Strong support is seen at 24628/24660 now. Dips to 24742 support for a test 25228 or even higher towards 25650. S1: 24210 S2: 23972 R1: 24540 R2: 24720
: MCX Copper Nov: Supports are at 298-299. Favoured view expects a pullback towards 308.75/311 levelswhile above 296.S1: 301 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 313
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3320 followed by 3298. Ideally, a pullback towards 3436 or even higher towards 3470 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3374 R2:3420
MCX Zinc sept: A rise above 89.75 could see a pullback to 90.60 / 91 levels. A fall below 87.50 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1: 88.20 S2: 87.10 R1: 89.65 R2: 90.60
MCX Lead Sept: While above 101.50 prices could attempt to test resistance at 104.30 again. Fall below 101.40 to see prices edging lower. S1:102.20 S2: 101.40 R1:103.40 R2:104.30
MCX Nickel Sept: A rise above 900 could see a pullback to 920 / 930 levels. A fall below 872 would lessen a chanceof a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:871 S2:854 R1:900 R2:922
MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 150 prices could stay under pressure. Prices are still oversold but a breach of 150 levels would be required to spark a corrective rally towards 166 levels. Supports are at 132/130 levels now.S1:132 S2:128.30 R1:140 R2:144.80
Comex Gold Dec: Supports are at 972 followed by 967. Supports to hold for a test of 993 or even higher. aadianant4u: Comex Silver Dec: Strong support is seen at 15.18/20 now. Dips to 15.25 support for a test 15.55 or even higher towards 15.81.
Nymex Crude Oct: Supports are at 67.65 followed by 67.05. Ideally, a pullback towards 69.85 or even highertowards 70.55 looks likely as long as supports hold.
Comex Copper Dec: Supports are at 275-76. Favored view expects a pullback towards 285/87 levels while above 273
mcx trading startegy:-Corrective dip to 15415-15284 range can be used for buying.
The price movement yesterday was large therefore we could see intra-day dip to support level of 15415 or below.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 15415 and if it rises above 15415 then buy with low below 15415 as the stop loss at the point of recovery.
Expect higher range of 15650-15781 to be tested
mcx silver trading startergy;-Corrective dip to 24785-24469 can be used for buying with stop loss of 24300.
In order to reduce the risk, traders can wait for a fall below 24785 and rises above 24785 then buy with low below 24785 as the stop loss.
Expect higher range of 25269-25586 to be tested
LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD;-(VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN
MCX Silver December: Strong support is seen at 24628/24660 now. Dips to 24742 support for a test 25228 or even higher towards 25650. S1: 24210 S2: 23972 R1: 24540 R2: 24720
: MCX Copper Nov: Supports are at 298-299. Favoured view expects a pullback towards 308.75/311 levelswhile above 296.S1: 301 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 313
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3320 followed by 3298. Ideally, a pullback towards 3436 or even higher towards 3470 looks likely as long as supports hold. S1:3306 S2:3260 R1:3374 R2:3420
MCX Zinc sept: A rise above 89.75 could see a pullback to 90.60 / 91 levels. A fall below 87.50 would lessen a chance of a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1: 88.20 S2: 87.10 R1: 89.65 R2: 90.60
MCX Lead Sept: While above 101.50 prices could attempt to test resistance at 104.30 again. Fall below 101.40 to see prices edging lower. S1:102.20 S2: 101.40 R1:103.40 R2:104.30
MCX Nickel Sept: A rise above 900 could see a pullback to 920 / 930 levels. A fall below 872 would lessen a chanceof a pullback and see prices move lower again. S1:871 S2:854 R1:900 R2:922
MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 150 prices could stay under pressure. Prices are still oversold but a breach of 150 levels would be required to spark a corrective rally towards 166 levels. Supports are at 132/130 levels now.S1:132 S2:128.30 R1:140 R2:144.80
Comex Gold Dec: Supports are at 972 followed by 967. Supports to hold for a test of 993 or even higher. aadianant4u: Comex Silver Dec: Strong support is seen at 15.18/20 now. Dips to 15.25 support for a test 15.55 or even higher towards 15.81.
Nymex Crude Oct: Supports are at 67.65 followed by 67.05. Ideally, a pullback towards 69.85 or even highertowards 70.55 looks likely as long as supports hold.
Comex Copper Dec: Supports are at 275-76. Favored view expects a pullback towards 285/87 levels while above 273
mcx trading startegy:-Corrective dip to 15415-15284 range can be used for buying.
The price movement yesterday was large therefore we could see intra-day dip to support level of 15415 or below.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 15415 and if it rises above 15415 then buy with low below 15415 as the stop loss at the point of recovery.
Expect higher range of 15650-15781 to be tested
mcx silver trading startergy;-Corrective dip to 24785-24469 can be used for buying with stop loss of 24300.
In order to reduce the risk, traders can wait for a fall below 24785 and rises above 24785 then buy with low below 24785 as the stop loss.
Expect higher range of 25269-25586 to be tested
LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON GOLD;-(VIEW GIVEN ON 28TH OF AUG WHEN GOLD TRADING AT 943):-GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
VIEWS FOR 02ND SEPTEMBER 2009
MCX Gold Oct: Resistances are at 15210-15250 levels now. These levels expected to cap for a decline towards 15002 or even lower. Unexpected rise above 15288 to dent our bearish view. S1: 15156 S2: 15075 R1:15246 R2: 1530
MCX Silver December: Looks quite good for a test of 24560/24720 levels while above 23595. Initial resistance is at 24475. Supports are at 23972 followed by 23792. S1: 24210 S2: 23972 R1: 24540 R2: 24720
MCX Copper Nov: Pullback to 306.50/307.50 could find resistance for a fall towards recent lows or even lower. S1: 301 S2: 296 R1: 307 R2: 313
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance at 3417 followed by 3461. Ideally resistances to cap for a decline towards 3306-3290 or even lower. S1:3352 S2:3306 R1:3410 R2:3450
MCX Zinc sept: A fall below 89.00 could see a test of supports at 88.30 or lower. On the upside rallies could be capped at resistance levels of 90.60. S1: 89.00 S2: 88.30 R1: 90.25 R2: 91.10
MCX Lead Sept: A fall below 101.00 could see a test of supports at 99.60 or lower. On the upside rallies could be capped at resistance levels of 102.40/103.35. S1:101 S2: 99.60 R1:102.40 R2:103.50
MCX Nickel Sept: Rallies to 905/915 could find resistance for a move lower towards 870 levels again. More important resistance levels are at 930/940 a breach of which would cause doubts about the bearish view. S1:871 S2:854 R1:903 R2:922
MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 150 / 153 prices could stay under pressure. Prices are still oversold but a breach of 154 levels would be required to spark a corrective rally towards 165/170 levels. S1:140 S2:136.20 R1:145 R2:150.80
GOLD (spot): Last 954Bargain hunting was visible yesterday, and it seems, Gold’s inversecorrelation with equities, is now strengthening after being patchy forsometime. However, we remain cautious about being bullish until atleast 960gives away. A direct rise above 957 would be the first indication that such amove is in motion.Alternate Scenario:Inability to move past 957 is likely to trigger a swing back in to the trajectoryto 930 levels.Strategies: Buy above 957, TGT 970, Sell below 944, TGT932
Nymex Crude(Oct): Last 68.5Though yesterday’s fall was steep, a steep and unexpecteddecline in API crude stocks (released early morning)delays an impending fall in prices. The structure nowfavours a brief push towards 69 for a turn lower andsteeper. Voluminous break above 69 would dilute theintraday bearish momentum, but is likely to turn loweragain if 70 resists
Comex Copper (Dec): Last 2.7850Trend is now turning decidedly bearish, targetting 2.72initially, but a feeble swing back towards 2.80 cannot beruled out, which is an ideal selling level again. However,only a push above 2.82-2.84 would negate the bearishmomentum
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY;-
Corrective dip to 15163-15108 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15080. Expect higher range of 15258-15313 range to be tested.
SILVER MCX TRADING STRATERGY;-
Corrective dip to 24358-24120 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23986. Expect higher range of 24730-24968 to be tested.
The peak of 24884 could be tested.
Immediate resistance and lower top of 24375 has been crossed.
MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.
Monday, August 31, 2009
VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 31.08.2009
WEEKLY VIEWS ::
MCX Gold Oct: Supports at 15065-15035 to hold for a test of 15380-15430 levels in the coming sessions.Fall below 14968 to dent our bullish expectations S1: 15065 S2: 14980 R1:15189 R2: 15246.
MCX Silver September: Supports at 23436 followed by 23230 to hold for a test of 24240-24400.Fall below 22875 could cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 23650 S2: 23230 R1: 23890 R2: 24240
MCX Copper Aug : Crucial support at 304/303 levels now. Fall below 303 to test 299 being a trend line support point.Unexpected break of 299 could lead prices towards 278.S1: 307 S2: 301.80 R1: 312.50 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Resistance is at 3568 and 3602. Expect resistance to cap for a decline towards initial support at 3484.Subsequently a deeper fall towards 3368 or even lower is expected. S1:3504 S2:3452 R1:3568 R2:3608
MCX Zinc sept: Support is at 90.30/90.10. A fall below 90.00 could see a test of supports at 89.20 or 88.30.A break of 88.30 would set in a bearish bias and see further weakness. Resistance is at 92.00 levels now.
S1: 90.10 S2: 89.25 R1: 91.65 R2: 92.40
MCX Lead Sept: While below 104 prices could edge lower to test supports at 100.50 or even 99.50.Fall below 99.30 would set in a bearish bias and se a move lower towards 97.60. S1:102 S2: 100.50 R1:103.80 R2:105
MCX Nickel Sept: Support is at 920 levels now. A breach of the same would see prices move lower towards 900 / 895. Resistance at 958 / 965 and a breach of the same could see prices rising again. S1:930 S2:905 R1:955 R2:979
MCX Natural Gas Sept: While below 153 / 156 prices could stay under pressure. However oversold conditions still hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. A breach of 158 levels now could spark such a rally towards 166/170 levels.
S1:147 S2:142.50 R1:152.70 R2:157.7
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-
Book profits on long positions on rise to 15$-15.16$ and re-enter long on close above 15.16$.
Corrective dip to 14.47$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14.25$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD;-Resistance will be at 961$-972$.
Support will be at 948$.
Sell on fall below 948$ or sell on rise to 966$ with a stop loss of 972$.
NUMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE:-Exit long positions on rise to 73.5-75$ and re-enter long on rise and close above 75$. Corrective dip to 72.49$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 69.8$.
COMEX COPPER:-
Comex Copper (Dec):
A penetration of previous peak on Friday, has been largely rendered impotent, owing to a disappointing close lower, followed up by a feeble test today of Friday’s peak and a 3% fall lower. Following a massive long liquidation in the morning an upswing is presently underway. 2.84 on
the lower side has held thus far and an outside chance of such pull backs turning into rallies lies in the ability to push above 2.94 early. A fall below 2.84 is likely to trigger massive falls targetting 2.70
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-
Expect higher range of 15183-15193 to be tested.
Corrective dip to 15048 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 15022
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY:-
Corrective dip to 23856-23654 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23480.
Book profits on long positions on rise to 24231-24375 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on close above 24375
Sunday, August 30, 2009
WEEKLY AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON COMEX AND NYMEX FUTURES AS ON 31 AUG
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 959.9 resistance on Friday clears out the outlook a bit an indicates that rise from 931.3 is possibly resuming whole rally from 904.8. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test of 974.5/992.1 resistance zone first. Nevertheless, strong resistance could be seen there and bring another falling leg of the sideway consolidation that started at 1007.7. On the downside, below 942.4 support will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 931.3 will indicate that another fall is indeed underway for 904.8 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. While there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3/992.1 resistance zone will be the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rebound from 13.495 extended further to as high as 14.86 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 15.185 to 13.495 at 14.54 dampened the view that Silver has topped out at 15.185 and in turn indicates that rise from 12.435 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for a test of 15.185 resistance first and break will target the current medium term top at 16.25 next. On the downside, below 14.475 will bring consolidation but another would still be in favor as long as 14.04 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the outlook in Silver is rather mixed for the moment with main question on whether it's topped out at 16.25 already. We're still slightly favoring the case that silver's medium term rebound from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 after touching 16.08 key support turned resistance, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. It's also possible that silver is forming a head and shoulder top pattern too (ls: 14.635, h: 16.25, rs: 15.185?). However, a break of 13.495 near term support is at least needed first to give us more confidence on this case while break of 12.435 support will be the confirmation. However, a break above 15.185 resistance will in turn shift favors back to the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for another taken on 16.08/19.55 medium term resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption. In case of another rise above 16.25, there will still be no change in the long term neutral view and upside is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone to bring at least another medium term fall to continue to long term consolidation patter between 8.4 and 21.44
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After edging higher to 75.0, crude oil retreated sharply to as low as 69.83 last week but managed to recover from there and close above 70 level at 72.86. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. As noted before, with near term trend line support (now at 68.00) intact, rise from 58.32 is likely still in progress. Above 75.0 will bring rally resumption to long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) first. On the downside below 69.83 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that rise from 58.32 has indeed finished ahead of 76.77 fibo resistance and will turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
There is no change in the overall bearish view in Natural gas. While some consolidation might be seen in near term, upside recovery is expected to be limited by 3.25/60 fibonacci resistance zone, (38.2% and 50% retracement of 4.162 to 2.692). Current decline, which is part of the whole down trend from 13.69, is expected to resume sooner or later to next long term projection target at 2.50 after completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, decisive break of 3.60 will be an important signal that natural gas has bottomed out and will turn focus to 4.16 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 13.69 resumed after completing triangle consolidation from 3.155. Such decline is treated as the third leg of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Hence further fall should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50 and possibly below. Nevertheless, we're expect strong support between 1.96 (02 low) and the 2.5 projection target to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69. On the upside, break of 4.162 resistance will now be an important signal that natural gas has finally bottomed out
Gold's break of 959.9 resistance on Friday clears out the outlook a bit an indicates that rise from 931.3 is possibly resuming whole rally from 904.8. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test of 974.5/992.1 resistance zone first. Nevertheless, strong resistance could be seen there and bring another falling leg of the sideway consolidation that started at 1007.7. On the downside, below 942.4 support will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 931.3 will indicate that another fall is indeed underway for 904.8 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. While there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3/992.1 resistance zone will be the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rebound from 13.495 extended further to as high as 14.86 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 15.185 to 13.495 at 14.54 dampened the view that Silver has topped out at 15.185 and in turn indicates that rise from 12.435 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for a test of 15.185 resistance first and break will target the current medium term top at 16.25 next. On the downside, below 14.475 will bring consolidation but another would still be in favor as long as 14.04 support holds.
In the bigger picture, the outlook in Silver is rather mixed for the moment with main question on whether it's topped out at 16.25 already. We're still slightly favoring the case that silver's medium term rebound from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 after touching 16.08 key support turned resistance, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. It's also possible that silver is forming a head and shoulder top pattern too (ls: 14.635, h: 16.25, rs: 15.185?). However, a break of 13.495 near term support is at least needed first to give us more confidence on this case while break of 12.435 support will be the confirmation. However, a break above 15.185 resistance will in turn shift favors back to the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for another taken on 16.08/19.55 medium term resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption. In case of another rise above 16.25, there will still be no change in the long term neutral view and upside is expected to be limited by 19.55/21.44 resistance zone to bring at least another medium term fall to continue to long term consolidation patter between 8.4 and 21.44
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After edging higher to 75.0, crude oil retreated sharply to as low as 69.83 last week but managed to recover from there and close above 70 level at 72.86. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. As noted before, with near term trend line support (now at 68.00) intact, rise from 58.32 is likely still in progress. Above 75.0 will bring rally resumption to long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) first. On the downside below 69.83 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, considering mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of the mentioned trend line support will argue that rise from 58.32 has indeed finished ahead of 76.77 fibo resistance and will turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
There is no change in the overall bearish view in Natural gas. While some consolidation might be seen in near term, upside recovery is expected to be limited by 3.25/60 fibonacci resistance zone, (38.2% and 50% retracement of 4.162 to 2.692). Current decline, which is part of the whole down trend from 13.69, is expected to resume sooner or later to next long term projection target at 2.50 after completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, decisive break of 3.60 will be an important signal that natural gas has bottomed out and will turn focus to 4.16 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 13.69 resumed after completing triangle consolidation from 3.155. Such decline is treated as the third leg of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005. Hence further fall should be seen to next target of 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50 and possibly below. Nevertheless, we're expect strong support between 1.96 (02 low) and the 2.5 projection target to finally conclude the whole decline from 13.69. On the upside, break of 4.162 resistance will now be an important signal that natural gas has finally bottomed out
Friday, August 28, 2009
EXPECTATION OF MCX GOLD AND LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD
GOLD LONG TERM OUTLOOK ;-
GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN
MCX Gold Oct : Finally getting ready to break higher. Break above 15158 to open the way higher for 15492 levels or even higher. Supports are at 15000 followed by 14936. S1: 14980 S2: 14936 R1:15084 R2: 15136
MCX Silver September: After a messy consolidation, we could see a break higher. Break above 23630 to test24040-24060 or even higher towards 24660. Supports at 23271 followed by 23025. S1: 23124 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792
MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 309/308. Expect prices to test 326-328 levels while above 305.S1: 307 S2: 301.80 R1: 312.50 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3514 followed by 3490. Supports to hold for a test of 3608 or even higher. S1:3490 S2:3452 R1:3554 R2:3608
MCX Zinc Aug: While above support at 87.50 prices could stay firm. Resistance seen at 91.20 levels now and a breach of the same could see prices rising further towards 92.50. S1: 88.50 S2: 87.50 R1: 90.05 R2: 91.20
: MCX Lead Aug: While above 97.70 prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 102. Fall below 97.50 would cause doubts about this view. S1:98.50 S2:97.65 R1:100.00 R2:101.
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 920 levels now. A breach of the same would be required to see prices move lower towards 900 / 895. While above this levels prices could attempt to test resistance at 955 levels and a break above it could see prices rising again. S1:930 S2:905 R1:955 R2:979
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A fall below 152.50 could see further weakness. However oversold conditions still hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. A breach of 162 could spark such a rally towards 170/175 levels. S1:153 S2:149.50 R1:159.10 R2:163.50
MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Rallies to 513/515 could find resistance for a move lower again towards 501. A rise above 516.20 would cause doubts about this view. S1:- 505 S2:- 501 R1:- 511 R2:- 516
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Exit long positions on rise to 23287-23449 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 23550.
Corrective dip to 23133 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23030.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 23449 and when it falls below 23449 then sell with high above 23449 as the stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
Buy on breakout above 15085 with low of the day stop loss or 14980 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
Sell on fall below 14980 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 15067 and when it falls below 15067 then sell with high above 15067 as the stop loss
GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN
MCX Gold Oct : Finally getting ready to break higher. Break above 15158 to open the way higher for 15492 levels or even higher. Supports are at 15000 followed by 14936. S1: 14980 S2: 14936 R1:15084 R2: 15136
MCX Silver September: After a messy consolidation, we could see a break higher. Break above 23630 to test24040-24060 or even higher towards 24660. Supports at 23271 followed by 23025. S1: 23124 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792
MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 309/308. Expect prices to test 326-328 levels while above 305.S1: 307 S2: 301.80 R1: 312.50 R2: 318
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3514 followed by 3490. Supports to hold for a test of 3608 or even higher. S1:3490 S2:3452 R1:3554 R2:3608
MCX Zinc Aug: While above support at 87.50 prices could stay firm. Resistance seen at 91.20 levels now and a breach of the same could see prices rising further towards 92.50. S1: 88.50 S2: 87.50 R1: 90.05 R2: 91.20
: MCX Lead Aug: While above 97.70 prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 102. Fall below 97.50 would cause doubts about this view. S1:98.50 S2:97.65 R1:100.00 R2:101.
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 920 levels now. A breach of the same would be required to see prices move lower towards 900 / 895. While above this levels prices could attempt to test resistance at 955 levels and a break above it could see prices rising again. S1:930 S2:905 R1:955 R2:979
MCX Natural Gas Sept: A fall below 152.50 could see further weakness. However oversold conditions still hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. A breach of 162 could spark such a rally towards 170/175 levels. S1:153 S2:149.50 R1:159.10 R2:163.50
MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Rallies to 513/515 could find resistance for a move lower again towards 501. A rise above 516.20 would cause doubts about this view. S1:- 505 S2:- 501 R1:- 511 R2:- 516
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Exit long positions on rise to 23287-23449 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 23550.
Corrective dip to 23133 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23030.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 23449 and when it falls below 23449 then sell with high above 23449 as the stop loss.
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
Buy on breakout above 15085 with low of the day stop loss or 14980 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
Sell on fall below 14980 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 15067 and when it falls below 15067 then sell with high above 15067 as the stop loss
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
VIEWS FOR 26TH AUGUST 2009
MCX Gold Oct : Resistance at 15075-15125 to cap for a decline towards 14760 levels now.
S1: 14936 S2: 14883 R1:15037 R2: 15085
MCX Silver September: Moving in the range 23595 – 22960. A break of the range would decide the next directive move. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792
MCX Copper Aug : As long as 311.50/312.50 caps expect a fall towards 299 or even lower.
S1: 302 S2: 298 R1: 309.20 R2: 313
MCX Crude Oil Sept: As expected we saw a fall towards 3485. Resistance at 3573 followed by 3607. Favored view expects resistances to cap for a decline towards 3411. S1:3460 S2:3411 R1:3544 R2:3608
MCX Zinc Aug: Support is at 87.50/87.20. As long as support hold prices could stay firm and test resistance at 91.20. Fall below 87.20 could se prices falling towards 85.00/84.70. S1: 87.57 S2: 86.70 R1: 89.05 R2: 90.00
MCX Lead Aug: While above 95.30 prices could stay firm. Resistance is now seen at 99.90 / 100.30. A fall below 95.20 could see correction in prices to supports at 93.00 / 92.00.
S1:95.35 S2:93.80 R1:99.35 R2:100.30
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 926 levels now. Fall below 923 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. As long as 923 levels holds prices could stay firm and test resistance at 970 levels. S1:926 S2:905 R1:958 R2:979
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However a breach of 166/168 would spark such a rally towards 175/180 levels. Support is at 157 / 155 levels now. S1:158 S2:153 R1:166 R2:172
MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Support is at 510.50 levels. A breach of the same could see 508 or even 502 levels. Rallies could find stiff resistance at 518 /521 levels. Only a rise above 524 would see prices rising again. S1:- 510.50 S2:- 505 R1:- 517 R2:- 522.50
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Use rise to 14987-15040 to exit long positions as the opportunity arises.
Buy on rise and close above 15084 with low of the day stop loss.
Expect lower range of 14908-14855 to be tested
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Buy on rise and close above 23496 with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout.
Corrective dip to 23281-23130 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23000.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
Sideways volatile and inclusive moves are being witnessed.
The band of movement is getting narrower between its earlier peaks and troughs.
Resistance will be at 951-958$.
Support will be at 937$-935$.
Use rise to higher range to exit long positions
ENJOY TRADING !!!!
S1: 14936 S2: 14883 R1:15037 R2: 15085
MCX Silver September: Moving in the range 23595 – 22960. A break of the range would decide the next directive move. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792
MCX Copper Aug : As long as 311.50/312.50 caps expect a fall towards 299 or even lower.
S1: 302 S2: 298 R1: 309.20 R2: 313
MCX Crude Oil Sept: As expected we saw a fall towards 3485. Resistance at 3573 followed by 3607. Favored view expects resistances to cap for a decline towards 3411. S1:3460 S2:3411 R1:3544 R2:3608
MCX Zinc Aug: Support is at 87.50/87.20. As long as support hold prices could stay firm and test resistance at 91.20. Fall below 87.20 could se prices falling towards 85.00/84.70. S1: 87.57 S2: 86.70 R1: 89.05 R2: 90.00
MCX Lead Aug: While above 95.30 prices could stay firm. Resistance is now seen at 99.90 / 100.30. A fall below 95.20 could see correction in prices to supports at 93.00 / 92.00.
S1:95.35 S2:93.80 R1:99.35 R2:100.30
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 926 levels now. Fall below 923 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. As long as 923 levels holds prices could stay firm and test resistance at 970 levels. S1:926 S2:905 R1:958 R2:979
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However a breach of 166/168 would spark such a rally towards 175/180 levels. Support is at 157 / 155 levels now. S1:158 S2:153 R1:166 R2:172
MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Support is at 510.50 levels. A breach of the same could see 508 or even 502 levels. Rallies could find stiff resistance at 518 /521 levels. Only a rise above 524 would see prices rising again. S1:- 510.50 S2:- 505 R1:- 517 R2:- 522.50
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Use rise to 14987-15040 to exit long positions as the opportunity arises.
Buy on rise and close above 15084 with low of the day stop loss.
Expect lower range of 14908-14855 to be tested
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Buy on rise and close above 23496 with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout.
Corrective dip to 23281-23130 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23000.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
Sideways volatile and inclusive moves are being witnessed.
The band of movement is getting narrower between its earlier peaks and troughs.
Resistance will be at 951-958$.
Support will be at 937$-935$.
Use rise to higher range to exit long positions
ENJOY TRADING !!!!
Monday, August 24, 2009
VIEWS FOR WEEK STARTING FORM 24TH AUGUST 2009
MCX Gold Oct : Favoured view expects 14940/14878 range to hold for a breakout past 15360 during the week.Fall below 14846 might expose it to the other support levels at 14751 or 14626. S1: 14947 S2: 14878 R1:15065 R2: 15115
MCX Silver September: Dips to 22980-22940 to support for a rally towards 23820-23890.Fall below 22750 to dent our expectations. S1: 23020 S2: 22740 R1: 23354 R2: 23820
MCX Copper Aug : Price could initially attempt to cross above 315. Next objective is at 335. Support is around 299 It needs to fall below 288.30 to hint that there could be a further correction.It looks more likely that it would not fall below 295 but would find it easier to rise towards the upside objectives. S1: 302 S2: 295 R1: 315 R2: 321
MCX Crude Oil Sept: We can expect a rise to 3708 or 3786 while staying above 3465. It has to fall below 3392 to take away the bullishness and turn the picture bearish for next important support near 3355. S1:3553 S2:3474 R1:3630 R2:3708
MCX Zinc Aug: Support at 88.00 could hold for a move higher towards 92.40.Fall below 87.00 would cause doubts about the bullish outlook. S1: 88.45 S2: 87.40 R1: 90.60 R2: 91.50
MCX Lead Aug: Dips to 89.00 / 88.50 could find support for a move higher towards 92.60.A fall below 87.70 would cause doubts about this view. S1:89.00 S2:87.80 R1:91.70 R2:92.60
MCX Nickel Aug: While above 920 levels prices could edge higher towards 976 / 986 levels now. Fall below 920 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. S1:933 S2:905 R1:967 R2:987
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However only a breach of 166 would spark such a rally towards 170 / 175 levels. Support is at 153 / 150 levels now. S1:153 S2:147.60 R1:162 R2:170
SPOT GOLD ;-
Expect Gold to test the brown color trend line which is around 967$.
Resistance will be at 961$-967$.
Support will be at 946$-935$.
SPOT SILVER;-
Red Color trend line which was violated is now retested on the upside.
On further sustained rise above 14.25$, the rise can go higher towards 14.46$-14.59$.
Support will be at 13.88$-13.27$.
NYMEX CRUDE:-
A breakout above 73.38$ has been witnessed.
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Corrective dip to 72.8$ or below can be used for buying.(WAITING FOR AN BIG MOVE TILL 85-100 RANGE)
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-If it opens below 15065 and rises above 15065 then buy with low below 15065 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 14886 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14865.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 14886 and when it moves above 14886 then buy with low below 14886 as the stop loss.
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-
Resistance will be at 23159-23251. If it opens below 23251 and rises above 23251 then buy with low below 23251 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 23101 or below can be used for buying with a stop loss of 22675.
MCX Silver September: Dips to 22980-22940 to support for a rally towards 23820-23890.Fall below 22750 to dent our expectations. S1: 23020 S2: 22740 R1: 23354 R2: 23820
MCX Copper Aug : Price could initially attempt to cross above 315. Next objective is at 335. Support is around 299 It needs to fall below 288.30 to hint that there could be a further correction.It looks more likely that it would not fall below 295 but would find it easier to rise towards the upside objectives. S1: 302 S2: 295 R1: 315 R2: 321
MCX Crude Oil Sept: We can expect a rise to 3708 or 3786 while staying above 3465. It has to fall below 3392 to take away the bullishness and turn the picture bearish for next important support near 3355. S1:3553 S2:3474 R1:3630 R2:3708
MCX Zinc Aug: Support at 88.00 could hold for a move higher towards 92.40.Fall below 87.00 would cause doubts about the bullish outlook. S1: 88.45 S2: 87.40 R1: 90.60 R2: 91.50
MCX Lead Aug: Dips to 89.00 / 88.50 could find support for a move higher towards 92.60.A fall below 87.70 would cause doubts about this view. S1:89.00 S2:87.80 R1:91.70 R2:92.60
MCX Nickel Aug: While above 920 levels prices could edge higher towards 976 / 986 levels now. Fall below 920 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. S1:933 S2:905 R1:967 R2:987
MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However only a breach of 166 would spark such a rally towards 170 / 175 levels. Support is at 153 / 150 levels now. S1:153 S2:147.60 R1:162 R2:170
SPOT GOLD ;-
Expect Gold to test the brown color trend line which is around 967$.
Resistance will be at 961$-967$.
Support will be at 946$-935$.
SPOT SILVER;-
Red Color trend line which was violated is now retested on the upside.
On further sustained rise above 14.25$, the rise can go higher towards 14.46$-14.59$.
Support will be at 13.88$-13.27$.
NYMEX CRUDE:-
A breakout above 73.38$ has been witnessed.
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Corrective dip to 72.8$ or below can be used for buying.(WAITING FOR AN BIG MOVE TILL 85-100 RANGE)
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-If it opens below 15065 and rises above 15065 then buy with low below 15065 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 14886 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14865.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 14886 and when it moves above 14886 then buy with low below 14886 as the stop loss.
MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-
Resistance will be at 23159-23251. If it opens below 23251 and rises above 23251 then buy with low below 23251 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 23101 or below can be used for buying with a stop loss of 22675.
Monday, August 17, 2009
VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 17TH AUGUST 2009
MCX Gold Oct : Bearish momentum in weekly daily charts could make the price to stay under 15003 and drift to supports near 14736, 14564 or 14502. The bullish consolidation pattern would breakdown if price falls below 14375, nullifying the bullish expectation. Favoured view expects the decline to end near 14799 or 14612 for resumption of the uptrend by rising past 15145. Fall below 14564 would hint at deeper decline to 14501 or 14375. S1: 14805 S2: 14730 R1:14922 R2: 14989
MCX Silver September: Supports are at 23115 followed by 22825. Failure to find support here could drag prices lower towards 21920 levels. Resistance are at 23640 followed by 23730. Direct rise above 23750 to negate bearish view. S1: 23340 S2: 23115 R1: 23640 R2: 23857
MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 291/290 now. Stronger support is at 287/286. Only a daily close below this could lead to a further corrective move towards 272/273. S1: 292 S2: 287 R1: 299 R2: 305
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Favoured view expects that resistance near 3443 or 3478 could cap for a fall towards 3278 or even 3170. It needs to rise above 3501 to change this bearish view. S1:3335 S2:3278 R1:3404 R2:3452
MCX Lead Aug : Support is seen at 86.00 levels. Failure to hold support at this level could see further weakness towards 84.00.On the other hand a direct rise above 89.50 to see prices rise again. S1:87.20 S2:86.00 R1:89.00 R2:90.60
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is seen at 920 / 910 levels. Failure to hold support these levels could see further weakness towards 880 levels.On the other hand a rise above resistance at 986 / 996 to see prices rising again. S1:923 S2:907 R1:962 R2:986
MCX Natural Gas Aug: While below 166 prices could stay under pressure. Next supports are at 156 followed by 151 levels now. A rise above 166 could see a corrective move up towards 172 / 174 levels. S1:156 S2:151 R1:165.35 R2:171.80
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-
On Friday, we had indicated that traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14847 and take profits on rise to 14999-15060 range as the opportunity arises.
On Friday, we had seen excess volatility as the high and low were at 15011-14781. The stop loss was violated after attaining the profit booking range of 14999-15060.
A breakout and close above 15020 can bring about a near term rally.
Support range will be at 14781-14690.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15020
MCX SILVER TRADING STATERGY:-
Traders who are holding long positions and wish to continue to do so can maintain a stop loss of 23354.
Take profit on rise to 23988-24270 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 24270 with low of the day stop loss or 23615 whichever is lower at the point of breakout
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
The low registered was 939.4$ and moved back up to test the red color trend line offering resistance.
If the support and the low registered 3 days back of 939.4$ is violated on closing then expect a confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern with price implication down towards 920$-907$.
Traders can sell on rise to 953$ or above with a stop loss of 965$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-
A new dark blue color trend line is marked parallel to orange color line which shows the angle of accent.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 15$-15.50$ to exit long positions and take profit.
Support will be at 14.46$.
Traders can maintain a stop loss of 14.46$ to hold long positions
NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-
The long term weekly chart is shown below.
The Projection B is about to be tested.
The recent low of 3.15$ is about to get tested.
Support range is at 3.15$-3.05$.
On fall and close below 3$, the slide can get extended towards 2.64$ at least and to an outer extent to 1.85$-1.76$.
We have a good probability that Natural Gas could bounce from 3.15$-3.05$ or 2.64$.
On weekly charts, a weekly close above 3.77$ can only confirm a reversal otherwise series of lower top and lower bottom continues
COMEX HIGH GRADE COPPER;-
On the daily chart, the system show a buy signal on 15th July 2009(D, M, Y as shown in the chart shown the date) at 2.392$ (BP) and since then the trend has been up. The set target area (BT) when buy signal was confirmed was 2.60, 2.66 and 2.83. All the target level indicated we attained.
Book profit signal were market has well with Red Color Dot on the chart.
The trend line holds importance now.
A parallel track formation has been formed on Thursday and Friday which is a 2 day pattern.
If the trend line is violated then a correction is likely.
Support is around 2.69$.
If the support of 2.69$ is violated then expect top confirmation for fall.
In case of a breakout and close above 2.95$, the rally will get extended towards 3.17$.
NYMEX CRUDE;-
Crude Oil has violated the support of 69$ on closing.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 68.7$-70.10$ to exit long positions and to sell with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 74$.
The blue color trend line could be tested.
The higher bottom is placed at 62.7$.
Support will be at 64.9$ or below with a stop loss of 62.7$.
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN US FOR OUR ROCKING INTRADAY TRADING TIPS....
MCX Silver September: Supports are at 23115 followed by 22825. Failure to find support here could drag prices lower towards 21920 levels. Resistance are at 23640 followed by 23730. Direct rise above 23750 to negate bearish view. S1: 23340 S2: 23115 R1: 23640 R2: 23857
MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 291/290 now. Stronger support is at 287/286. Only a daily close below this could lead to a further corrective move towards 272/273. S1: 292 S2: 287 R1: 299 R2: 305
MCX Crude Oil Sept: Favoured view expects that resistance near 3443 or 3478 could cap for a fall towards 3278 or even 3170. It needs to rise above 3501 to change this bearish view. S1:3335 S2:3278 R1:3404 R2:3452
MCX Lead Aug : Support is seen at 86.00 levels. Failure to hold support at this level could see further weakness towards 84.00.On the other hand a direct rise above 89.50 to see prices rise again. S1:87.20 S2:86.00 R1:89.00 R2:90.60
MCX Nickel Aug: Support is seen at 920 / 910 levels. Failure to hold support these levels could see further weakness towards 880 levels.On the other hand a rise above resistance at 986 / 996 to see prices rising again. S1:923 S2:907 R1:962 R2:986
MCX Natural Gas Aug: While below 166 prices could stay under pressure. Next supports are at 156 followed by 151 levels now. A rise above 166 could see a corrective move up towards 172 / 174 levels. S1:156 S2:151 R1:165.35 R2:171.80
MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-
On Friday, we had indicated that traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14847 and take profits on rise to 14999-15060 range as the opportunity arises.
On Friday, we had seen excess volatility as the high and low were at 15011-14781. The stop loss was violated after attaining the profit booking range of 14999-15060.
A breakout and close above 15020 can bring about a near term rally.
Support range will be at 14781-14690.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15020
MCX SILVER TRADING STATERGY:-
Traders who are holding long positions and wish to continue to do so can maintain a stop loss of 23354.
Take profit on rise to 23988-24270 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 24270 with low of the day stop loss or 23615 whichever is lower at the point of breakout
INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
The low registered was 939.4$ and moved back up to test the red color trend line offering resistance.
If the support and the low registered 3 days back of 939.4$ is violated on closing then expect a confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern with price implication down towards 920$-907$.
Traders can sell on rise to 953$ or above with a stop loss of 965$.
INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-
A new dark blue color trend line is marked parallel to orange color line which shows the angle of accent.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 15$-15.50$ to exit long positions and take profit.
Support will be at 14.46$.
Traders can maintain a stop loss of 14.46$ to hold long positions
NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-
The long term weekly chart is shown below.
The Projection B is about to be tested.
The recent low of 3.15$ is about to get tested.
Support range is at 3.15$-3.05$.
On fall and close below 3$, the slide can get extended towards 2.64$ at least and to an outer extent to 1.85$-1.76$.
We have a good probability that Natural Gas could bounce from 3.15$-3.05$ or 2.64$.
On weekly charts, a weekly close above 3.77$ can only confirm a reversal otherwise series of lower top and lower bottom continues
COMEX HIGH GRADE COPPER;-
On the daily chart, the system show a buy signal on 15th July 2009(D, M, Y as shown in the chart shown the date) at 2.392$ (BP) and since then the trend has been up. The set target area (BT) when buy signal was confirmed was 2.60, 2.66 and 2.83. All the target level indicated we attained.
Book profit signal were market has well with Red Color Dot on the chart.
The trend line holds importance now.
A parallel track formation has been formed on Thursday and Friday which is a 2 day pattern.
If the trend line is violated then a correction is likely.
Support is around 2.69$.
If the support of 2.69$ is violated then expect top confirmation for fall.
In case of a breakout and close above 2.95$, the rally will get extended towards 3.17$.
NYMEX CRUDE;-
Crude Oil has violated the support of 69$ on closing.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 68.7$-70.10$ to exit long positions and to sell with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 74$.
The blue color trend line could be tested.
The higher bottom is placed at 62.7$.
Support will be at 64.9$ or below with a stop loss of 62.7$.
LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN US FOR OUR ROCKING INTRADAY TRADING TIPS....
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Comex Gold (GC):-
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption
Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27
Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212
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