EXPECTATION OF MCX GOLD AND LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD

GOLD LONG TERM OUTLOOK ;-

GOLD AS FORMED A PENANT FLAG, SUGGESTING AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT IS CLOSE AT HAND. THE DIRECTION OF THIS PRICE GOING IN TO THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE THE SAME DIRECTION AS PRICE LEAVES THIS PATTERN WITH AN UPSIDE TARGET EQUAL TO THE LENGTH OF THE FLAG POLL. THAT GIVES AN UPSIDE PRICE TARGET OF 1325, WHICH IS PRECISELY THE SAME UPSIDE TARGET OF AN INDEPENDENT PATTERN WHICH WE HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE WEEKS THE BULLISH AND SHOULDER BOTTOM. GOLD HAS ALSO NEARLY COMPLETED A VERY HEAD AND SHOULDER BOTTOM THE UPSIDE TARGET IS 1325 AND THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THAT LEVEL RISES DRAMATICALLY WITH AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT ABOVE 1050. NOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW AT 905 AND 880 AS LONG GOLD HOLDS THIS SUPPORT MARKET WILL BE IN BULLISH ZONE BUYING IN CORRECTIVE DIPS IS ONLY GOOD MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN

MCX Gold Oct : Finally getting ready to break higher. Break above 15158 to open the way higher for 15492 levels or even higher. Supports are at 15000 followed by 14936. S1: 14980 S2: 14936 R1:15084 R2: 15136

MCX Silver September: After a messy consolidation, we could see a break higher. Break above 23630 to test24040-24060 or even higher towards 24660. Supports at 23271 followed by 23025. S1: 23124 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792

MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 309/308. Expect prices to test 326-328 levels while above 305.S1: 307 S2: 301.80 R1: 312.50 R2: 318

MCX Crude Oil Sept: Supports are at 3514 followed by 3490. Supports to hold for a test of 3608 or even higher. S1:3490 S2:3452 R1:3554 R2:3608

MCX Zinc Aug: While above support at 87.50 prices could stay firm. Resistance seen at 91.20 levels now and a breach of the same could see prices rising further towards 92.50. S1: 88.50 S2: 87.50 R1: 90.05 R2: 91.20

: MCX Lead Aug: While above 97.70 prices could stay firm and edge higher towards 102. Fall below 97.50 would cause doubts about this view. S1:98.50 S2:97.65 R1:100.00 R2:101.

MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 920 levels now. A breach of the same would be required to see prices move lower towards 900 / 895. While above this levels prices could attempt to test resistance at 955 levels and a break above it could see prices rising again. S1:930 S2:905 R1:955 R2:979

MCX Natural Gas Sept: A fall below 152.50 could see further weakness. However oversold conditions still hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. A breach of 162 could spark such a rally towards 170/175 levels. S1:153 S2:149.50 R1:159.10 R2:163.50

MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Rallies to 513/515 could find resistance for a move lower again towards 501. A rise above 516.20 would cause doubts about this view. S1:- 505 S2:- 501 R1:- 511 R2:- 516

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Exit long positions on rise to 23287-23449 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 23550.
Corrective dip to 23133 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23030.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 23449 and when it falls below 23449 then sell with high above 23449 as the stop loss.


MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
Buy on breakout above 15085 with low of the day stop loss or 14980 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
Sell on fall below 14980 with high of the day stop loss.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 15067 and when it falls below 15067 then sell with high above 15067 as the stop loss

VIEWS FOR 26TH AUGUST 2009

MCX Gold Oct : Resistance at 15075-15125 to cap for a decline towards 14760 levels now.
S1: 14936 S2: 14883 R1:15037 R2: 15085

MCX Silver September: Moving in the range 23595 – 22960. A break of the range would decide the next directive move. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23530 R2: 23792

MCX Copper Aug : As long as 311.50/312.50 caps expect a fall towards 299 or even lower.
S1: 302 S2: 298 R1: 309.20 R2: 313

MCX Crude Oil Sept: As expected we saw a fall towards 3485. Resistance at 3573 followed by 3607. Favored view expects resistances to cap for a decline towards 3411. S1:3460 S2:3411 R1:3544 R2:3608

MCX Zinc Aug: Support is at 87.50/87.20. As long as support hold prices could stay firm and test resistance at 91.20. Fall below 87.20 could se prices falling towards 85.00/84.70. S1: 87.57 S2: 86.70 R1: 89.05 R2: 90.00

MCX Lead Aug: While above 95.30 prices could stay firm. Resistance is now seen at 99.90 / 100.30. A fall below 95.20 could see correction in prices to supports at 93.00 / 92.00.
S1:95.35 S2:93.80 R1:99.35 R2:100.30

MCX Nickel Aug: Support is at 926 levels now. Fall below 923 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. As long as 923 levels holds prices could stay firm and test resistance at 970 levels. S1:926 S2:905 R1:958 R2:979

MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However a breach of 166/168 would spark such a rally towards 175/180 levels. Support is at 157 / 155 levels now. S1:158 S2:153 R1:166 R2:172

MCX Mentha Oil Aug : - Support is at 510.50 levels. A breach of the same could see 508 or even 502 levels. Rallies could find stiff resistance at 518 /521 levels. Only a rise above 524 would see prices rising again. S1:- 510.50 S2:- 505 R1:- 517 R2:- 522.50

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-Use rise to 14987-15040 to exit long positions as the opportunity arises.
Buy on rise and close above 15084 with low of the day stop loss.
Expect lower range of 14908-14855 to be tested

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-
Buy on rise and close above 23496 with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout.
Corrective dip to 23281-23130 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 23000.
Sell on fall below 23000 with high of the day stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-
Sideways volatile and inclusive moves are being witnessed.
The band of movement is getting narrower between its earlier peaks and troughs.
Resistance will be at 951-958$.
Support will be at 937$-935$.
Use rise to higher range to exit long positions

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

VIEWS FOR WEEK STARTING FORM 24TH AUGUST 2009

MCX Gold Oct : Favoured view expects 14940/14878 range to hold for a breakout past 15360 during the week.Fall below 14846 might expose it to the other support levels at 14751 or 14626. S1: 14947 S2: 14878 R1:15065 R2: 15115

MCX Silver September: Dips to 22980-22940 to support for a rally towards 23820-23890.Fall below 22750 to dent our expectations. S1: 23020 S2: 22740 R1: 23354 R2: 23820


MCX Copper Aug : Price could initially attempt to cross above 315. Next objective is at 335. Support is around 299 It needs to fall below 288.30 to hint that there could be a further correction.It looks more likely that it would not fall below 295 but would find it easier to rise towards the upside objectives. S1: 302 S2: 295 R1: 315 R2: 321

MCX Crude Oil Sept: We can expect a rise to 3708 or 3786 while staying above 3465. It has to fall below 3392 to take away the bullishness and turn the picture bearish for next important support near 3355. S1:3553 S2:3474 R1:3630 R2:3708

MCX Zinc Aug: Support at 88.00 could hold for a move higher towards 92.40.Fall below 87.00 would cause doubts about the bullish outlook. S1: 88.45 S2: 87.40 R1: 90.60 R2: 91.50

MCX Lead Aug: Dips to 89.00 / 88.50 could find support for a move higher towards 92.60.A fall below 87.70 would cause doubts about this view. S1:89.00 S2:87.80 R1:91.70 R2:92.60

MCX Nickel Aug: While above 920 levels prices could edge higher towards 976 / 986 levels now. Fall below 920 could see a move lower towards next supports at 903 / 893. S1:933 S2:905 R1:967 R2:987

MCX Natural Gas Sept: Oversold conditions do hint at a chance of corrective recovery in prices. However only a breach of 166 would spark such a rally towards 170 / 175 levels. Support is at 153 / 150 levels now. S1:153 S2:147.60 R1:162 R2:170

SPOT GOLD ;-
Expect Gold to test the brown color trend line which is around 967$.
Resistance will be at 961$-967$.
Support will be at 946$-935$.

SPOT SILVER;-
Red Color trend line which was violated is now retested on the upside.
On further sustained rise above 14.25$, the rise can go higher towards 14.46$-14.59$.
Support will be at 13.88$-13.27$.

NYMEX CRUDE:-
A breakout above 73.38$ has been witnessed.
Hold long positions with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Corrective dip to 72.8$ or below can be used for buying.(WAITING FOR AN BIG MOVE TILL 85-100 RANGE)

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-If it opens below 15065 and rises above 15065 then buy with low below 15065 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 14886 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14865.
Intra-day traders in order to minimize risk can wait for a fall below 14886 and when it moves above 14886 then buy with low below 14886 as the stop loss.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-
Resistance will be at 23159-23251. If it opens below 23251 and rises above 23251 then buy with low below 23251 as the stop loss.
Corrective dip to 23101 or below can be used for buying with a stop loss of 22675.

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 17TH AUGUST 2009

MCX Gold Oct : Bearish momentum in weekly daily charts could make the price to stay under 15003 and drift to supports near 14736, 14564 or 14502. The bullish consolidation pattern would breakdown if price falls below 14375, nullifying the bullish expectation. Favoured view expects the decline to end near 14799 or 14612 for resumption of the uptrend by rising past 15145. Fall below 14564 would hint at deeper decline to 14501 or 14375. S1: 14805 S2: 14730 R1:14922 R2: 14989

MCX Silver September: Supports are at 23115 followed by 22825. Failure to find support here could drag prices lower towards 21920 levels. Resistance are at 23640 followed by 23730. Direct rise above 23750 to negate bearish view. S1: 23340 S2: 23115 R1: 23640 R2: 23857

MCX Copper Aug : Supports are at 291/290 now. Stronger support is at 287/286. Only a daily close below this could lead to a further corrective move towards 272/273. S1: 292 S2: 287 R1: 299 R2: 305

MCX Crude Oil Sept: Favoured view expects that resistance near 3443 or 3478 could cap for a fall towards 3278 or even 3170. It needs to rise above 3501 to change this bearish view. S1:3335 S2:3278 R1:3404 R2:3452

MCX Lead Aug : Support is seen at 86.00 levels. Failure to hold support at this level could see further weakness towards 84.00.On the other hand a direct rise above 89.50 to see prices rise again. S1:87.20 S2:86.00 R1:89.00 R2:90.60

MCX Nickel Aug: Support is seen at 920 / 910 levels. Failure to hold support these levels could see further weakness towards 880 levels.On the other hand a rise above resistance at 986 / 996 to see prices rising again. S1:923 S2:907 R1:962 R2:986

MCX Natural Gas Aug: While below 166 prices could stay under pressure. Next supports are at 156 followed by 151 levels now. A rise above 166 could see a corrective move up towards 172 / 174 levels. S1:156 S2:151 R1:165.35 R2:171.80


MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-

On Friday, we had indicated that traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14847 and take profits on rise to 14999-15060 range as the opportunity arises.
On Friday, we had seen excess volatility as the high and low were at 15011-14781. The stop loss was violated after attaining the profit booking range of 14999-15060.
A breakout and close above 15020 can bring about a near term rally.
Support range will be at 14781-14690.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15020

MCX SILVER TRADING STATERGY:-

Traders who are holding long positions and wish to continue to do so can maintain a stop loss of 23354.
Take profit on rise to 23988-24270 range as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 24270 with low of the day stop loss or 23615 whichever is lower at the point of breakout

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :-

The low registered was 939.4$ and moved back up to test the red color trend line offering resistance.
If the support and the low registered 3 days back of 939.4$ is violated on closing then expect a confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern with price implication down towards 920$-907$.
Traders can sell on rise to 953$ or above with a stop loss of 965$.


INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER:-

A new dark blue color trend line is marked parallel to orange color line which shows the angle of accent.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 15$-15.50$ to exit long positions and take profit.
Support will be at 14.46$.
Traders can maintain a stop loss of 14.46$ to hold long positions

NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-

The long term weekly chart is shown below.
The Projection B is about to be tested.
The recent low of 3.15$ is about to get tested.
Support range is at 3.15$-3.05$.
On fall and close below 3$, the slide can get extended towards 2.64$ at least and to an outer extent to 1.85$-1.76$.
We have a good probability that Natural Gas could bounce from 3.15$-3.05$ or 2.64$.
On weekly charts, a weekly close above 3.77$ can only confirm a reversal otherwise series of lower top and lower bottom continues

COMEX HIGH GRADE COPPER;-

On the daily chart, the system show a buy signal on 15th July 2009(D, M, Y as shown in the chart shown the date) at 2.392$ (BP) and since then the trend has been up. The set target area (BT) when buy signal was confirmed was 2.60, 2.66 and 2.83. All the target level indicated we attained.
Book profit signal were market has well with Red Color Dot on the chart.
The trend line holds importance now.
A parallel track formation has been formed on Thursday and Friday which is a 2 day pattern.
If the trend line is violated then a correction is likely.
Support is around 2.69$.
If the support of 2.69$ is violated then expect top confirmation for fall.
In case of a breakout and close above 2.95$, the rally will get extended towards 3.17$.

NYMEX CRUDE;-

Crude Oil has violated the support of 69$ on closing.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 68.7$-70.10$ to exit long positions and to sell with a stop loss of 71.6$.
Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 74$.
The blue color trend line could be tested.
The higher bottom is placed at 62.7$.
Support will be at 64.9$ or below with a stop loss of 62.7$.

LOOK FORWARD TO JOIN US FOR OUR ROCKING INTRADAY TRADING TIPS....

Comex Gold (GC):-
Even though gold managed to recover to 96.31 last week, subsequent fall suggests that rise from 943.6 to 963.1 is merely a correction to fall from 974.3 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 943.6 will confirm that fall from 974.3 has resumed for 927.6 support next and then 904.8 support. On the upside, above 963.1 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 974.3 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, we're still preferring the case that price actions from 1007.7 are developing into consolidations to larger rally from 681, probably in form of triangle. Break of 943.6 support will indicate that the final falling leg in the pattern has started and will target 904.8 support. But downside will likely be contained there and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. In any case, break sustained break of 1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rally from 681 has resumed and should target 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.

Comex Silver (SI):-
Silver's rise from 12.435 extended further to as high as 15.185 last week before retreating. While the fall from 15.185 was steep, there is no indication of topping yet. Another rise is still in favor and above 15.185 will target 16.25 resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 14.17 support will indicate that a short term top is at least in place and should bring deeper decline towards 13.165 support next.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed in Silver for the moment. The stronger than expected rebound from 12.435 dampened the case that Silver has topped out at 16.25 already. But the strength of such rise from 12.435 was so far not strong enough to suggest it's rally resumption yet. Nevertheless, further upside is still slightly in favor as long as 14.17 support holds. Break of 16.25 will target next key resistance at 19.55. On the downside, below 14.17 will revive the case that silver's rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already. Further break of 12.435 will confirm and bring fall to 11.725 support and then 8.4 low.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption

Nymex Crude Oil (CL):-
Despite some intra-week recovery, crude oil was limited below 72.84 high as well as 73.36 resistance and reversed towards the end of the week. Break of 68.71 support suggests that fall from 72.84 has resumed. More importantly, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed. Intraday bias is on the downside this week for 62.70 support first. Break will then target 58.32 key support next. On the upside, above 70.05 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again.
In the bigger picture, as noted above, with daily MACD crossed before signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 63.88. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27

Nymex Natural Gas (NG):-
Natural's sharp fall and break of 3.519 support last week was inline with our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.162 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 3.155/225 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm medium term resumption for 3.0 psychological level first. On the upside, above 3.412 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 4.162 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle and has likely completed at 4.162 already. Sustained break of 3.155/225 support zone will confirm medium term fall resumption. Whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.
On the other hand, note that while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 4.575 resistance holds. However, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADING STRATERGY CONTACT MR MANISH PARMAR 9820555212

VIEWS FOR 7TH AUGUST 2009

MCX Gold Oct : Bullish for 15163 or ideally 15318.Dips if any could be held at 14852 , 14775 or 14744. S1: 14840 S2: 14760 R1: 14995 R2: 15080

MCX Silver September: Price structures indicate as long as 23595-23627 caps we could see a fall towards 22430- 22477 levels. Unexpected rise above 23898 to dent our bearish expectation. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23485 R2: 23645

MCX Copper August : Rallies to 292- 293.10 to cap for a test of 279.35- 281.45 levels or even lower. Unexpected rise above 296.0 to cause doubts on our corrective expectations. S1: 286 S2: 282 R1: 295 R2: 299

MCX Crude Oil Aug:Bullish. Can rise to 3483-3498. Support at 3414-3405 maximum at 3350-3335. Stop below 3321. S1:3395 S2:3360 R1:3485 R2:3520

MCX Zinc Aug: Rallies to 88.10- 88.40 to find resistance for a move lower towards 85.0/ 84.75 levels. A rise above 89.80 to negate this bearish view. S1: 86.80 S2: 86.0 R1: 88.50 R2: 89.70

MCX Lead Aug:Rallies to 90.10/90.50 to find resistance for a fall towards 87.0/ 86.50 levels. A rise above 91.55 to negate this bearish view. S1: 88.0 S2: 87.0 R1: 90.50 R2: 92.20

MCX Nickel Aug:Rallies to 940 / 948 find resistance for a move lower towards 900 /895 levels . A rise above 962 to negate this bearish view. S1: 920 S2: 905 R1: 945 R2: 962

MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 176/172 to find support for a move higher towards 194.0 levels . A fall below 171.30 to negate this bullish view .S1: 178 S2: 174 R1: 186 R2: 191

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14850 and look for rise to 14933-15002 to exit long to take profit.
Re-enter long positions on rise above 15020 with low of the day stop loss or 14850 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 23211.
Exit long positions on rise to 23472-23680 range as the opportunity arises.

INT. SPOT GOLD ::

Trader, if holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 950$.
The next resistance zone can be 973$-989$.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to the resistance to take profit as the opportunity arises.

INT. SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$-15.03$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 15.03$.
A sideways movement to minor correction is likely before further attempts to move higher beyond yesterday’s high of 15.03$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 69$.
Resistance will be at 72.2$ and 73.8$.
Traders can buy on rise above 72.2$ with low of the day stop loss or 70$ whichever is lower at the point of breakout.

VIEWS FOR 6TH AUGUST 2009

MCX Gold October : Dips to 14820- 14835 to hold for a test of 15082- 15098 or even higher towards 15143- 15158. Fall below 14695- 14711 to dent our bullish expectations. S1:14820 S2:14760 R1:14995 R2:15080

MCX Silver September: Initial resistance is at 23371 followed by 23688 - 23783 levels. Chances are that it could even extend to 24432 levels as long as 22610 - 22895 holds. Supports are at 22895 followed by 22610. S1: 23180 S2: 22960 R1: 23485 R2: 23645

MCX Copper August : Rallies to 290.6/292.2 to offer resistance for a move lower towards 280 levels. A rise above 296.10 to negate this view. S1: 290 S2: 285 R1: 294 R2: 299

MCX Crude Oil August : Favored view expects 3427 - 3451 levels to offer resistance and prices to move lower towards 3238 - 3224 levels.Above 3453 some doubts might creep in. S1:3350 S2: 3310 R1: 3435 R2: 3460

MCX Zinc Aug : While below 91.0 , expect correction towards 88.0/87.70 levels. A rise above 91.0 to negate this bearishness. S1: 89.2 S2: 88.2 R1: 91.4 R2: 92.60

MCX Lead Aug : While below 92.95 , expect correction towards 89.0/88.0 levels. A rise above 92.95 to negate this bearishness. S1: 91.50 S2: 90.65 R1: 93.30 R2: 94.20

MCX Nickel Aug : While below 962 , expect correction towards 930/925 levels. . A rise above 962 to negate this bearishness. S1: 945 S2: 928 R1: 970 R2: 995

MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 191.5/189.5 to find support for a move higher towards 202 levels . Fall below 188 to negate this bullish view. S1: 189.5 S2: 185.5 R1: 196 R2: 201

TRADING STRATEGY ::

MCX GOLD ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14840 and look for rise to 14950-15005 to exit long to take profit. Re-enter long positions on rise above 15005 with low of the day stop loss or 14840 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 23211. Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise above 23500 with low of the day stop loss of 23211 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
On sustained rise above 23520, expect rise to get extended towards 23652.
On fall below 23211, a minor correction or sideways movement could be witnessed before making further attempts to move higher.

INT. SPOT GOLD ::

Trader, if holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 950$. Resistance will be at 967$-971$.
On further rise above 971$ the next resistance zone can be 973$-989$.

INT. SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.85$.
Alternatively, traders who wish to hold long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14.53$.
A correction or sideways movement can come into existence on fall below 14.53$.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 14.53$.

INT. SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long positions and take profit at current price of 14.64$-14.84$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.85$.
Alternatively, traders who wish to hold long positions can maintain a stop loss of 14.53$.
A correction or sideways movement can come into existence on fall below 14.53$.
Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 14.53$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 69$. Resistance will be at 72.2$ and 73.8$.
Traders can buy on rise above 72.2$ with low of the day stop loss or 70$ whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
On sustained rise and close above 74$, Crude Oil can spike towards 77$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 85$.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK ON COMEX METALS AND ENERGIES AS ON 3RD AUGUST

GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Gold's fall from 862.7 was contained at 927.6 and subsequent strong rally argues that whole rise from 904.8 is still in progress. Break of 962.7 high will confirm rise resumption and should then target 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. Nevertheless, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation. Hence we'd look for near term reversal signals there. On the downside, break of 927.6 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case

SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's fall from 14.09 was contained at 13.165 and the strong rebound from there aruges that rise from 12.435 might still be in progress. While such rise will now likely be stronger than we originally expected, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction the five wave impulsive fall from 16.25. Break of 14.09 till target cluster level at 14.79/82 (61.8% retracement of 16.25 to 12.435 at 14.79 and 100% projection of 12.435 to 14.09 from 13.165 at 14.82). But upside should be limited there to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 13.165 support is now needed to indicate that rebound from 12.435 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, we're still prefering the case that whole rise from 8.4 has completed at 16.25 already, after meeting 16.08 key medium term resistance, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The three wave structure indicates that such rise is merely correction to whole fall from 21.44 only. In other words, down trend from 21.44 is not completed yet. Break of 11.725 support will further solidify this case and bring retest of 8.4 low next. On the upside, break of 14.79/82 resistance zone is needed to be the first signal that fall from 16.25 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, recent development suggests that Silver's fall from 21.44 to 8.4 just part of a long term correction to the five wave up trend from 4.01. In other words, such down trend form 21.44 is possibly not completed and fall from 16.25 is tentatively treated as resumption of such fall that will eventually send silver through 8.4 low. Though, strong support is expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone in case of down trend resumption

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 68.99 was contained above 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) as expected. Subsequent strong rally and break of 68.99 high indicates that rise from 58.32 has resumed and should now be targeting key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. While some retreat might be seen, break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is still trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. on the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27

NATURAL GAS :-Much volatility was seen in natural gas last week but after all it continued to stay in range of 3.225 and 3.904. Nevertheless, it looks choppy triangle consolidation from 3.155 is still in progress and could extend further. Above 3.094 will bring another rise towards 4.387 resistance but upside should be limited there and bring reversal. On the downside, a break of 3.225 support will argue that consolidation is possibly completed. Further break of 3.155 will confirm medium term fall resumption for 3.0 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 3.155 are merely consolidation to the medium term fall from 13.69, in form of triangle. Another rise might be seen before the consolidation completes but upside is expected to be limited below 4.575 resistance. As mentioned before, whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50. On the upside, however, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above

FOR MORE DETAILS ON TRADE CONTACT MARKET EDITOR NITESHJAIN AND MANISH WE ROCK EVERY DAY

VIEWS FOR 28TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Daily chart suggests that while staying above 14713 it is more inclined to rise towards 15137. A push above 15199 could open the way for next level at 15450/15465. Overall the outlook is bullish. Supports are around 14807/14839 and 14745. It has to fall below 14698 to suggest that it could decline further towards 14588 or even 14510. Favored view expects the dips to stay above 14807 for next rise towards 15168/15199 or 15450/15465. S1: 14850 S2: 14730 R1: 15040 R2: 15140

MCX Silver September: Support at 22262 is crucial for the uptrend to sustain and rally towards 23279/23311 levels. Direct fall below 22613 to develop into a corrective fall 22158 at least with a possibility of extending towards 21687/21719 too. S1: 22500 S2: 22300 R1: 22930 R2: 23150

MCX Copper August : Our preferred target at 274 has been nearly met. Important support is at 266-267. Break below here to drag prices towards 255-257 levels.This our favored view now. However, direct rise above 272 could take prices higher towards 280. S1: 265 S2: 262 R1: 274 R2: 278

MCX Crude Oil August : Crucial support is at 3257-3265 now. While below 3320 look for a fall towards 3200 or even lower towards 3175 Direct rise above 3321 to dent our bearish expectations. S1: 3250 S2: 3190 R1: 3330 R2: 3390

MCX ZincJuly:Rally to 81.4/81.6 to take price lower toward 79.60/79.30 level. Rise above 82.75 to negate bearish view. S1:80.40 S2:79.60 R1:82.10 R2:83.30

MCX LeadJuly: While below 86.10, price may move down and test 83.70/83.30 level. Rise above 86.15 to negate bearish view. S1:83.50 S2:82.70 R1:84.20 R2:85.20

MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 181/178 to find support for a move higher towards 194 levels . Fall below 167 to raise doubts S1: 180 S2: 177 R1: 186 R2: 190

MCX Nickel July : While below 820 , we can expect price to move lower towards 785/780 levels .rise above 820 to negate this bearish view. S1:797 S2:782 R1: 820 R2: 830

TRADING STRATEGY ::

MCX GOLD ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14865. Traders holding long position can take profit on rise to 14976-15012 as the opportunity arise. Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 15012 with low of the day stop loss or 14865 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.

MCX SILVER:-
Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 22485. Traders can buy on rise and close above 22820 with low of the day stop loss or 22485 whichever is lower at the point of breakout. Subsequently, expect a rise towards 22969

SPOT GOLD:-
A rise above 957$ was witnessed but closed lower at 952.65$. The high registered yesterday was 958.7$. Traders who are into long positions can maintain a stop loss of 944$ or exit long at 952.6 to 959 as the opportunity arises. Fresh trading long can be added on rise and close above 959 with low of the day stop loss at the point of breakout.

SPOT SILVER::
Can hold long positions with a stop loss of 13.73$. Expect a rise towards 14.32$. Corrective dip to 13.89$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 13.73$.

Nymex Crude(Sep):
Last 68.2 Buy 67.7, TGT 68.5, 69.6 Sell below 67.7, TGT66.6

Comex Copper (Sep):
Last 2.5525 Buy 2.54, TGT 2.57 Other entry points: Sell 2.57, Buy 2.49

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

VIEWS FOR 27TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Daily chart suggests that while staying above 14679 it is more inclined to rise towards 15101. A push above 15164 could open the way for next level at 15414/15429. Overall the outlook is bullish. Supports are around 14773/14804 & 14710. It has to fall below 14663 to suggest that it could decline further towards 14552 or even 14476.

MCX Silver September: Important support is at 22075. As long as this support holds we can expect a test of 22870 or even higher towards 23226. Direct fall below 22075 to lead to a corrective fall towards 21653 or even lower. S1: 22200 S2: 22000 R1: 22630 R2: 22850

MCX Copper August : Rise above 268- 270 to extend further towards 274- 276 levels. However, fall below 262 - 264 zone to lead into a corrective decline towards 258 followed by 250. S1: 265 S2: 262 R1: 273 R2: 276

MCX Crude Oil August : Chart is bullish for a rise towards 3365. Ideally it should start a pullback from there towards 3224. If it crosses above 3392 it could turn more bullish for next levels at 3474 or even 3527. Supports are near 3262 & 3234. It has to fall below 3195 to hint at the possibility of failure of this view. S1: 3230 S2: 3170 R1: 3320 R2: 3360

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 84.50 – 84.70 to find resistance for a move lower towards 83.0 – 82.8 levels. A rise above 85.10 levels to raise doubts about this view . S1: 83.50 S2: 82.70 R1: 84.20 R2: 85.20

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 81.25 – 81.50 to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.5 – 79.8 levels. A rise above 82.10 levels to raise doubts about this view. S1: 79.75 S2: 78.60 R1: 81.50 R2: 82.60

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 14865.
Traders holding long position can take profit on rise to 14908-14938 as the opportunity arise.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 14993.
On fall and close below 14865, a retracement of the rise from 14421 to 14993 could be witnessed.
If that happens then expect a slide towards 14776-14708 range at least and may be to an outer extent to 14639 depending on the movement on the downside.
Traders can trade long on rise and close above 14993.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 22332.
Traders can buy on rise and close above 22579 with low of the day stop loss or 22332 whichever is lower at the point of breakout.
Subsequently, expect a rise towards 22651 as the opportunity arises.
A breakout above 22579 can take the price higher towards the upper channel line and 61.8% speed line marked on the chart which is around 22857.

GOLD SPOT INTERNATIONAL ::

A breakout and close above 957$ can take the price higher.
Traders who are short need to maintain a stop loss of 957$.
A fall and close below 944$ can confirm a near term minor correction or fall to test down the low of 904$.
If the fall below 944$ is witnessed then expect retracement of the rise from 904$ to 957$ at least if no the fall down to 904$.
The retracement levels are placed at 937$-931$-924$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 13.60$.
On sustained rise above 13.90$, can take Silver towards the 50% retracement level which is at 14.32$.
Sell on fall and close below 13.60$ with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.

HG COPPER COMEX ::

Resistance will be at 254$.
Traders holding long positions in COMEX can observe s top loss of 243$.
Expect a rise towards 276$ in days to come.

VIEWS FOR 15TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Initial resistance is at 14687-14700 followed by 14751- 14766.Supports are at 14608 followed by 14529.Favored view expects test of resistance levels while above 14529. Could even extend to 14798- 14814 levels.S1: 14550 S2: 14450 R1: 14760 R2: 14870

MCX Silver September: Resistance is at 21817 followed by 21984. Possibility exists for a run towards 22419 as long as 21604 holds. Fall below 21065 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 21370 S2: 21200 R1: 21780 R2: 21950

MCX Copper August : Headed towards 254- 255 being an important resistance level. It is likely that we see a corrective dip from there.Supports are at 244 followed by 241.5. S1: 243 S2: 239 R1: 250 R2: 253

MCX Crude Oil August : Important support is at 2975 now. Fall below this level to postpone the bullishness. Supports are at 2975 followed by 2956.Ideally, supports to hold for a rally towards 3124 or even higher. fall below 2950 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 2945 S2: 2920 R1: 3030 R2: 3060

MCX Zinc July: While above 71.20 levels expect prices to target 74.30/74.65 levels.Only a fall below 71.20 to negate bullishness. S1: 71.4 S2: 70.30 R1: 73.5 R2: 74.5

MCX Lead July : Dips to 76.70 to find support for a move higher towards 78.60 levels.Fall below 75.75 to negate this bullish view. S1: 76.0 S2: 75.00 R1: 78.00 R2: 79.00

MCX Nickel July : Dips to 748/744 to find support for a move higher towards 770 levels . A fall below 730 to raise doubts. S1:744 S2:732 R1: 768 R2: 780

MCX Natural Gas August : Dips to 174/171 to find support for a move higher towards 182 levels.Fall below 169 to negate bullishness .S1: 173 S2: 168 R1: 179 R2: 183

MCX Mentha Oil July: - Oversold indicators indicate a likelihood of correction. S1:- 478 S2:- 473 R1:- 487 R2:- 495

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend is up.
Corrective dips to Rs. 14637 – 14585 can be used for buying with stop loss placed at Rs. 14566.
Expect a rise towards Rs. 14709 – 14761.
Add more on breakout and close above Rs. 14823.
As the trend is up, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 14637 and when it rises above Rs. 14637, then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 14637 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 14709 – Rs. 14761 range or above.

VIEWS FOR 14TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Dips to 14500/14469 to find support for a move higher towards 14722 . A rise above 14786 to strengthen bullishness.A fall below 14374 to lessen the chance of this move.S1: 14490 S2: 14380 R1: 14690 R2: 14790

MCX Silver Sep: Dips to 21366-21299 to find support for move higher toward 22187-22270 level. Fall below 20931 to raise doubt .S1:21270 S2:20950 R1:21580 R2:21750

MCX Copper August : Break above 242.5 to set the tone for a rally towards 250-251 levels. Daily close above 255 to open the upside again towards 266 or even higher. Fall below 236 to lessen the chances of bullishness. S1: 236 S2: 233 R1: 244 R2: 247

MCX Crude Oil August : Possibility of a corrective rise towards 3085 - 3135 area while price stays above 2896. Ideally the decline should continue after this corrective rally. If the rally exceeds 3265 then the chart might look less bearish. S1: 2945 S2: 2920 R1: 3030 R2: 3060

MCX Zinc July: Corrective rallies may target 72.70 or even 73.20 as long as 71.0 levels hold. A move above 74.3 is needed to strengthen bullishness.S1: 70.4 S2: 69.30 R1: 72.0 R2: 73.0

MCX Lead July : Corrective rallies may target 76.8 or even 78.10 as long as 75.0 levels hold. A move above 79.10 is needed to strengthen bullishness.S1: 74.90 S2: 73.80 R1: 76.60 R2: 77.60

MCX Nickel July : Corrective rallies may target 736 or even 740 as long as 708 levels hold. A move above 741 is needed to strengthen bullishness.S1:710 S2:697 R1: 735 R2: 750

MCX Natural Gas Aug: Break above 165 to take price towards 171 - 176 levels. Fall below 159 to signal more bearishness ahead. S1: 156 S2: 152 R1: 164 R2: 167

TRADING STRATEGY ::

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Upside movement was witnessed to test the resistance level of 925$.
Expect resistance of 925$ to be tested and the yellow color falling trend line which is placed around the same 925$-928$ range.
Support will be at 915$-900$.
A rise to test the resistance and yellow trend line could be seen. Subsequently, a reaction down is possible.
In case of a breakout and close above the yellow line then expect the rise towards the lower top of 948$ and the red color trend line which was earlier violated. In that case, later we will have to take the retracement of the fall from the peak of 989$ to 904$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Cover short positions at current price and on dip to support of 12.62$-12.44$.
Sell again on fall and close below 12.44$.
Resistance will be tested which are placed at 12.89$-12.97$.
A breakout and close above 12.97$ will mean a breakout up out of the falling channel. The price have been moving under the blue color trend line.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

The fall has got slower and has almost got halted.
Support range is at 58$-56$. A minor bounce up is possible to create lower top.
Resistance will be at 60$-62$.
If the resistance is crossed then the pullback can be witnessed towards the earlier broken bottoms which are in the range of 66$. It will first make a lower top and later we can decide if it has the strength to cross the high. Initially rise will potentially make a lower top of the pullback rise.

NOTE :: IT IS GOOD TO FOLLOW INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR TODAY AS GOOD FLUCTUATION SEEN IN USDINR !!!

ENJOY TRADING !!!

VIEWS FOR 13TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Bearish indications in the daily chart show that there is a good chance for the price todecline towards 14304 or 14229. Fall below 14372 would increase the chances for this fall. Resistance isseen at 14579-14645 . Price needs to rise past 14715 to lessen the scope for this decline.S1: 14390 S2: 14280 R1: 14590 R2: 14690

MCX Silver September: Resistances are at 21683 followed by 21952. Break above 21952 to trigger a sharprally higher towards 22900 levels.However, resistances at 21960 to be very strong and only a daily closeabove this level to re-inforce bullish expectations.S1: 21070 S2: 20800 R1: 21480 R2: 21750

MCX Copper August : Break above 243 to set the tone for a rally towards 249/250 levels. Daily close above 255.5 to open the upside again towards 266 or even higher. Fall below 235 to lessen the chances of bullishness.S1: 236 S2: 233 R1: 244 R2: 247

MCX Crude Oil August : Possibility of a corrective rise towards 3093/3145 area while price stays above 2900. Ideally the decline should continue after this corrective rally. If the rally exceeds 3275 then the chart might lookless bearish. S1: 2945 S2: 2920 R1: 3030 R2: 3060

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 73.75/73.90 to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.0 levels . A rise above 74.85 to negate this bearish view. S1: 72.2 S2: 71.20 R1: 74.0 R2: 75.0

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 77.90/78.20 to find resistance for a move lower towards 76.0 levels . A rise above 79.25 to negate this bearish view. S1: 76.90 S2: 75.80 R1: 78.60 R2: 79.60

MCX Nickel July:Rally to 724/730 to find resistance for move lower toward 700 level . Rise above 737 to negate bearish view. S1:707 S2:690 R1: 730 R2: 744

MCX Natural Gas Aug : Break above 176 to take price toward 181 level. Fall below 173 to signal more bearishness ahead. S1: 170 S2: 167 R1: 175 R2: 178


GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Trend line support is being witnessed. Support range is at 14443-14381
A fall below 14381 will show a sharper and sustained fall.
Resistance will be at 14524-14555.
Cover short positions at support of 14473-14443 as the opportunity arises.
A rise towards 14525-14555 range is possible.
If it sustains then lower top of 14624 could be tested.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

The fall is in a regression channel as shown in the chart. Sell on rise to 21309-21493 with a stop loss of 21599.
Expect lower range of 21073-20889.
Sell further on fall below 21126 with high of the day stop loss or 21599 whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

The price movement on Friday was an In Side Day. Therefore the support and resistance remain the same for Monday. Support is at 900$. On fall and close below 900$, expect the slide to continue towards 879$.
Resistance will be at 918$-925$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A systematic fall is being witnessed in the falling channel below the blue color trend line. The 87.5% retracement level as indicated also was attained.
Support will be at 12.52$-12.42$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 12.97$.
Resistance will be at 12.76$-12.97$.
Sell further on fall and close below 12.42$. If that happens then expect a slide down towards 12.03$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

A correction down towards 38.2% is likely to be tested in days to come which are around 58$. Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 61.63$ to hold short positions.
Support will be at 58$-56$. Traders holding short positions can cover at support level range as the opportunity arises.


HG COPPER COMEX ::

The orange color trend line support is being witnessed. Support is at 214.2$-211$.
Sell on fall below 211$.
The resistance trend line is the yellow color trend line.
The lower top is placed at 236.5$.
Immediate last 2 days high is at 224.35$.
A rise above 225$ can take the price towards the yellow trend line which is placed at 231$.
Resistance will be at 231$-236$.

VIEWS FOR 10TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Rallies to 14553/14568 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 14235/14204; break above 14662 will negate this bearish view.S1: 14390 S2: 14280 R1: 14590 R2: 14690

MCX Silver September: As long as 21135 holds support expect an up move towards 21883/ 21995, breakbelow 21100 will negate this bullish view. S1: 21370 S2: 21160 R1: 21780 R2: 22050

MCX Copper Aug: Dip to 236.6/237.8 to find support for move higher toward 244/245, break below 233.5to negate bullish view. S1: 237 S2: 235 R1: 244 R2: 247

MCX Crude Oil July : Dips to 2874 followed by 2846 to find support for an up move towards 3005/3025, break below 2806 to negate this bullish view.S1: 2885 S2: 2830 R1: 2945 R2: 2985

MCX Zinc July: Supports at 74.20/74.0 . A break above 74.85 to take price towards 76.30 levels now.Only a fall below 72.85 to signal continuation of bearish move. S1: 73.0 S2: 72.20 R1: 74.7 R2: 75.8

MCX Lead July : Supports at 78.60 /78.40 . A break above 79.15 to take price towards 80.30 levels now. Only a fall below 77.75 to signal continuation of bearish move. S1: 77.90 S2: 76.80 R1: 79.60 R2: 80.60

MCX Nickel July : Supports at 722 / 718 . A break above 742 to take price towards 760 levels now. Onlya fall below 710 to signal continuation of bearish move. S1:710 S2:700 R1: 735 R2: 748

MCX Natural Gas July : Buy on the break of 171 , S/L 165.2 , TGT 180 S1: 162 S2: 158 R1: 171 R2: 174


TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Trend line support is being witnessed.
Support range is at 14481-14400.
A fall below 14400 will show a sharper and sustained fall.
Resistance will be at 14524-14624.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 14524 and when it falls below 14524 then sell with high above 14524 as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Support is at 900$. On fall and close below 900$, expect the slide to continue towards 879$.
Resistance will be at 918$-925$.


INT. SPOT SILVER ::

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 13.15$.
A channeled fall is being witnessed. The price movement has been below the blue color trend line as shown in the chart.
Sell on fall and close below 12.73$ with a stop loss of 13.15$.
Expect lower range of 12.54$ to be tested.


NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

A correction down towards 38.2% is likely to be tested in days to come which are around 58$.
Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 63$ to hold short positions.
Sell on fall and close below 59.20$ with high of the day stop loss or 63$ whichever is higher.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

VIEWS FOR 9TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Initial resistance at 14559 - 14591 followed by 14623 - 14671 levels. Ideally, resistance
to cap for 14240 while below 14671. S1: 14390 S2: 14280 R1: 14590 R2: 14690


MCX Silver September: Resistance at 21807 followed by 22059.More important resistance is at 22227.
Break above 22227 to test 22820 levels now. Direct fall below 21370 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 21370 S2: 21160 R1: 21780 R2: 22050


MCX Natural Gas July : Break above 172 can take price towards 185 levels . Supports at 163/160
levels . S1: 163 S2: 160 R1: 168 R2: 172.


MCX Copper August : Resistance is at 237 followed by important resistance at 239/241 levels now.
Resistance to cap for decline to 230. Direct rise above 243 to dash our bearish hopes.S1: 234 S2: 231 R1: 240 R2: 243
MCX Crude Oil July : A pullback to 3086/3090 looks likely or even higher towards 3129.Direct fall below
2970 to drag prices lower. Such a fall to test 2920/2908.S1: 2965 S2: 2930 R1: 3045 R2: 3090


MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 74.60/74.80 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 73.00/72.50
levels. Only a rise above 76.00 to negate this bearish view. S1: 73.5 S2: 72.40 R1: 75.3 R2: 76

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 79.80/80.20 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 76.50
levels. Only a rise above 80.70 to negate this bearish view S1: 77.60 S2: 76.50 R1: 79.60 R2: 80.60


MCX Nickel July : Rallies to 743/747 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 715-710 levels.Only a rise above 765 to negate this bearish view S1:720 S2:710 R1: 745 R2: 758
INTERNATIONAL SPOT VIEW:-Gold breakdown below 920$ yesterday and attained a low of 904.7$.
Expect lower level of 900$, 879$ and 864$ to be tested.
Resistance will be at 913$, 920$ and 925$.
Resistance levels can be used to sell and exit long positions.
Recovery from 900$ can test the resistance and if sustains can test the yellow color trend line.
The bias is for lower top and lower bottom formation for immediate near term situation.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER VIEW:-Hold short positions with a stop loss of 13.15$.
Expect lower level of 12.54$ to be tested.
A channeled fall is being witnessed. The price movement has been below the blue color trend line as shown in the chart

NYMEX CRUDE:-A correction down towards 38.2% is likely to be tested in days to come which are around 58$.
Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 63$ to hold short positions.


MCX TRADING STRATERGY:- SILVER MCX :-Sell on fall and close below 21460 with high of the day stop loss or 21769 whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.
Traders can wait for a rise above 21769 and when it falls below 21769 then sell with high above 21769 as the stop loss.
A breakout and close above 22021 can reverse the sequence of lower top and lower bottom formation. It can also subsequently give a breakout of the falling channel as shown in the chart
MCX GOLD ;-Yesterday price movement erased the gains registered on Monday and the stop loss was violated on the trading long side. It was expected that the pink color trend line could be tested but the same did not happen.
Traders holding long positions can look for rise to 14526-14594 to exit long and to sell.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 14624.
One again the convergence between the new trend line looks to have begun.
Violation of red color trend line can mean a sharper fall in gold price.
Support overall will be at 14400.
Immediate range is 14624-14400

VIEWS FOR 8TH JULY 2009

MCX Silver September: Prices seem extremely oversold , downside limited. Break below 21472 to take prices to support levels at 21241- 21158. Favored view expects supports to hold dips for a rally higher.S1: 21630 S2: 21460 R1: 21980 R2: 22250

MCX Copper August : After failing to cross 249 has once again got into the bearish mode. Rallies to 243-244 can be sold for a fall towards 235 - 233 levels.Only rise above 249.50 to dent the bearish view .S1: 237 S2: 234 R1: 244 R2: 247.5

MCX Crude Oil July : Indicators point prices are extremely oversold. Important support at 3043 followed by 2996.Ideally, a turn can be expected from one of these levels targeting 3200- 3230.Fall below 2995 to raise doubt about the view. S1: 3040 S2: 3000 R1: 3130 R2: 3175

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 80.80/81.20 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 78.50 levels. Only a rise above 83.20 to negate this bearish view S1: 79.60 S2: 78.50 R1: 81.60 R2: 82.60

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.60/75.80 likely to find resistance for a move ower towards 73.50 levels. Only a rise above 77.15 to negate this bearish view.S1: 74.5 S2: 73.40 R1: 76.3 R2: 77.2

MCX Nickel July : Rallies to 770/775 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 740/735 levels. Only a rise above 783 to negate this bearish view. S1:750 S2:736 R1: 775 R2: 789

MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 174/178 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 165 levels. Only a rise above 182 to negate this bearish view .S1: 165 S2: 162 R1: 173 R2: 176

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Expect a rise towards 14651-14698.
The earlier converging lines which we have been indicating were modified now. New trend line are being displayed now.
Expect the pink color trend line to be tested.
Corrective dip to 14573-14526 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 14495. Take profit on rise to L3-L4 levels as the opportunity arises.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Cover short positions at 21687-21495 range as the opportunity arises.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 21975.
Higher range of 22104 can be tested on sustained rise above 21975 during the day.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Support is at 920$.
Sell on fall below 920$.
Resistance will be at 931$-934$.
Traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 934$.
A sideways movement is being witnessed.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Sell on fall and close below 13$ with high of the day stop loss or 13.34$ whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.
Expect lower range of 12.54$ to be tested in days to come.
A breakout and close above 13.35$ will also mean a trend line breakout from the blue color trend line. If that happens then expect a pullback rise for near term.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

A breakdown was indicated in our previous update.
A correction down towards 38.2% is likely to be tested in days to come which is around 58$.
Traders who are holding short positions can maintain a stop loss of 65$ to hold short positions.


SPECIAL REPORT ON COMEX HG HIGH GRADE COPPER AS ON 8TH OF JULY ::
HG COMEX COPPER:- The wave structure of the rise from 72$(2001) to 404$(2006) shows a 5 wave increase and then a corrective irregular flat pattern move down to 125$(2008).
A pullback rise has been witnessed from 125$ to 245$.
Support will be at 211$.
A fall and close below 211$ will begin its down movement in form of Wave C.
Wave B of correction could get terminated at current level or on rise to 265$-297$.

The second alternate combination suggest that one rising cycle and a correction complete as shown in the below chart.
A new up move has begun and will can be confirmed above 297$.
Any correction now will create a higher bottom against 125$ and make way further up.
Correction down to 196$, 180$ and 171$ will be opportunity for accumulation as higher bottom is expect to cross 297$ and make new high.
Conclusion :-
The situation at this point is not completely clear where the price direction will take course further.
A dual strategy can be adopted based on respective positions.
Traders who are long can keep a stop loss of 211$ and look for rise to exit and take profit 265$-297$ range.
In the same trade traders can go short on fall below 211$ with high as stop loss or the immediate near term peak of 246$ whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.

VIEWS FOR 7TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Rallies to 14550/14581 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 14346-14330, break above 14676 will negate this bearish view. S1: 14395 S2: 14280 R1: 14590 R2: 14670

MCX Silver September: As long as 21539 holds support expect corrective rallies towards 22350 - 22420,break below 21440 will negate this bullish view. S1: 21630 S2: 21460 R1: 21980 R2: 22250

MCX Copper Aug:Rallies to 244-245 to find resistance for fall lower toward 234-233; break above 249 willnegate bearish view. S1: 239 S2: 235 R1:245 R2:248

MCX Crude Oil July : Rallies to 3150-3165 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 3034/3019; break above3189 will negate this bearish view. S1: 3080 S2: 3040 R1: 3160 R2: 3205

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 81.80/82.40 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.50 levels. Only a rise above 83.10 to negate this bearish view S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.60 R2: 83.60

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.30/75.60 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.50 levels. Only arise above 76.20 to negate this bearish view. S1: 74.5 S2: 73.40 R1: 75.9 R2: 76.9

MCX Nickel July : Rallies to 776/781 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 755 -745 levels. Only arise above 785 to negate this bearish view S1:760 S2:746 R1: 788 R2: 800

MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 174/178 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 165 levels. Only a rise above 182 to negate this bearish view. S1: 165 S2: 162 R1: 173 R2: 176

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The converging trend line has come to a point of intersection. Yesterday, we saw gold recovery from the low of 14408. The low of 14407 was not violate in last 4-5 trading days.
A breakout and close above 14624 will bring about a near term rally.
A fall and close below 14400 will bring about a fall.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Cover short positions on dip to 21738-21677 as the opportunity arises.
Sell again on fall and close below 21480.
Resistance of 21981-22021 range could be tested.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Expect the level of 912$ to be tested.
Traders got into short positions or intend to sell can keep a stop loss of 934$.
Support and recovery from 912$-910$ could be witnessed.
A close below 910$ can bring about a sustained slide.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Traders who are short need to maintain a stop loss of 13.46$.
Support is at 13$.
Traders can sell on fall below 13$ with high of the day stop loss or 13.46$.
The price movement is under the blue color trend line as shown in the chart.
Expect 87.5% retracement of the rise from 12.03$ to 16.22$ to be tested which is placed at 12.54$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

A breakdown below the pink color trend line as shown in the chart has been witnessed.
The 23.6% retracement of the entire rise from 32.75$ to 73.80$ has been tested which is placed at 63.4$.
Further retracement levels 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% are placed at 58$, 53$ and 48$.
We could see price testing 58$ in days to come.
Expect attempts of pullback to test back the pink color trend line can be witnessed.
A close above 67.5$ can put Crude Oil back on track of rising path.

VIEWS FOR 6TH JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Crucial supports are at 14363 followed by 14301 now. Favored view expects supports to be held at this level and rise higher. However,unexpected fall below 14301 to raise doubt on our bullish view. Such fall could drag price lower toward 13959 level. S1: 14370 S2: 14280 R1: 14550 R2: 14650

MCX Silver Sep:Fall below 21534 show weakness. Near-term support at 21308 .Failure to hold support here could drag prices further lower.S1: 21530 S2: 21360 R1: 21780 R2: 21950

MCX Copper August : Fall below 242.7 has opened the downside for copper. Initial support is at 238.7. Failure to hold support here could drag prices further lower towards 233.10/235.2 levels. Resistances are at 242.7/243.8 now.S1: 239 S2: 235 R1: 245 R2: 248

MCX Crude Oil July : Strong support is seen at 3132. It looks like this support could be broken for next decline towards an important support at 3069 or possibly 3004. Failure to break below 3132 would suggest that the uptrend might still be intact and resume the bullishness again.

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.10/75.30 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.50 levels. Only a rise above 76.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 73.5 S2: 72.40 R1: 75.4 R2: 76.5

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 81.80/82.10 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.50 levels. Only a rise above 83.10 to negate this bullish view S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.60 R2: 83.60

MCX Nickel July : Rallies to 776/781 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 755 levels. Only a rise above 785 to negate this bullish view S1:760 S2:746 R1: 788 R2: 800

MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 179/181 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 165 levels. Only a rise above 185 to negate this bullish view. S1: 170 S2: 167 R1: 179 R2: 183

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend line is held well on Gold chart as of Saturday’s session.
Support of 14407 not violated.
The price movement are getting narrower and moving within the converging lines.
Sell on fall below 14400 with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss of 14581.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

The volume registered last week was highest and larger.
The low registered last week was 21480.
Sell on fall below 21480 with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.
Intra-day traders wait for rise above 21937 and when it falls below 21937 then sell with high above 21937 as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

A sideways movement in a band of 950$-920$ is being witnessed with volatility. Overall objective can be to exit long and sell on rise with a stop loss of 950$.Support will be at 920$ and 910$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A breakdown below 13.59$ and 13.46$ has been witnessed.
The blue color trend line has not been crossed.
Expect the 75% and 87.5% retracement level of 13.10$ and 12.57$ to be tested.
Resistance will be at 13.46$-13.59$-13.86$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$.

VIEWS FOR 3RD JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Near-term supports are at 14400 followed by crucial support at 14337 now. As long
as these supports holds, bullishness towards 14882 However, direct fall below 14337 to result in a sharp
fall below 14197-14229 levels.S1: 14370 S2: 14280 R1: 14550 R2: 14650

MCX Silver September: Fall below 21875 resulted in a sharp fall towards 21454 levels. Immediate resistance
is at 21875 now. Further fall from here looks unlikely. Only a break above 22245 to signal resumption of
bullishness.S1: 21530 S2: 21360 R1: 21780 R2: 21950

MCX Copper August: Important supports are at 241 followed by 238 now. Favored view expects supports
to hold for a rally towards 254/256 levels.However, unexpected fall below 236.8 to result in a sharp fall
towards 225/227 levels.S1: 242 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252

MCX Crude Oil July : Near-term support is at 3206 levels. Failure to hold support here to result in a further
decline towards 3075 levels.Resistances are at 3273 followed by 3305 now.
S1: 3200 S2: 3168 R1: 3275 R2: 3308

MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.00/74.85 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below
74.20 to negate this bullish view. S1: 74.5 S2: 73.40 R1: 76.4 R2: 77.5

MCX Lead July : Dips to 81.00/80.85 to find support for a move higher towards 84.30 levels now. Fall
below 79.70 to negate this bullish view. S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.60 R2: 83.60

MCX Nickel July:Dip to 780/775 to find support for move higher toward 820 level now. Fall below 764 to
negate bullish view. S1:776 S2:759 R1: 804 R2: 819

MCX Natural Gas July:Dip to 175/173 to offer support now for rally toward 185 level. Fall below 173 to
negate bullish view. S1: 177 S2: 174 R1: 184 R2: 188

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend is once again held well yesterday.
Support of 14407 also not violated.
The price movement are getting narrower and moving within the converging lines.
Sell on fall below 14400 with high of the day stop loss.
Traders who are already short can keep a stop loss of 14581.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Sell on fall below 21480 with high of the day stop loss at the point of breakdown.
Intra-day traders wait for rise above 21708 or 21937 and when it falls below 21708 or 21937 then sell with high above 21708 or 21937 as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD :;

A sideways movement in a band of 950$-920$ is being witnessed with volatility.
Overall objective can be to exit long and sell on rise with a stop loss of 950$.
Support will be at 920$ and 910$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A breakdown below 13.59$ and 13.46$ has been witnessed.
The blue color trend line has not been crossed.
Expect the 75% and 87.5% retracement level of 13.10$ and 12.57$ to be tested.
Resistance will be at 13.46$-13.59$-13.86$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

The pink color trend line has been tested and closed just below it.
Support of 66$ has been tested and it closed around it at 66.73$.
Next support is at 64.95$.
In last couple of days, Crude tested the peak of 73.4$ and the red color trend line as shown in the chart. The same trend line was violated earlier and closed lower the same day. Further it held steady for next day to finally crack yesterday to test the support of 66$.
Support is at 66$-64.95$.
A fall below the support can show a correction in Crude down.
Intra-day bounce could be seen before cracking down further.
Resistance will be at 68$-70$.
Traders who are short by chance can maintain a stop loss of 70$.

DOLLAR INDEX ::

The Dollar index based on the available data show the fall has been a corrective pattern of A-B-C which can be converted into W-X-Y pattern with Wave W complete.
The current rise can be for Wave X.
Wave X will be a corrective structure with 3 wave pattern which can get carried up towards the 102 from current level of 80.50.
The above indicated Wave structure is valid till the low of 71 is not violated.
Alternative count structure can be more bullish that what was indicated above. Corrective wave structure gets complete at 71 with A-B-C structure and new up move and impulse has already began. Minor degree Wave 1 is complete and Wave 2 is in progress.
Dollar index moved down from 121.29 (2001) to 71(2008). In the same period of the world equity indices have shown a rise had made new highs during the same period broadly.
In the same period Crude Oil also showed a rally which had directly correlation to the equity markets.
In the same way HG COPPER on Comex showed a rally in the same period from 60$ to 426$. Only difference is that made a top six month later. Similar tendency has been seen in other metals.
Conclusion
On the whole, we can see direct correlation between the financial and commodity market against the dollar index.

VIEWS FOR 2ND JUNE 2009

MCX Gold August: Price structures are looking good for a rise towards 14750/14780 levels now. Dips to 14440/14471 to support attempts to dip. Fall below 14379 to neutralize our bullish expectations.S1: 14470 S2: 14380 R1: 14640 R2: 14750

MCX Silver September: Initial resistance is at 22342/22374 levels followed by 22582/22614 now. Directrise above 22615 to increase the chances of a rally higher towards 23525 or even higher. Fall below21655 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 21730 S2: 21500 R1: 22150 R2: 22400

MCX Copper August : Support at 239.7 held well for a rally higher. Resistance is at 253/254 levels now. Crucial support is still at 239 and an unexpected drop below this level to open the downside again.S1: 243 S2: 239 R1: 249 R2: 252

MCX Crude Oil July : Break below 3297 has opened the way for 3156 or even lower now. Rallies to 3374 to find strong resistance. Unexpected rise above 3437 to dent our bearish expectations.S1: 3275 S2: 3240 R1: 3335 R2: 3380

MCX Zinc July: Dips to 75.20 – 75.00 to find support for a move higher towards 77.30 levels now. Fall below 74.20 to negate this bullish view.S1: 74.9 S2: 73.70 R1: 76.8 R2: 77.45

MCX Lead July : Dips to 82.50 – 82.20 to find support for a move higher towards 84.50 levels now. Fall below 80.90 to negate this bullish view.S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.60 R2: 84.60

MCX Nickel July : Dips to 764 – 760 to find support for a move higher towards 815 levels now. Fall below745 to negate this bullish view. S1:762 S2:746 R1: 790 R2: 810

MCX Natural Gas July : Rallies to 189 – 192 to find resistance for a move lower towards 175 levels now. Rise above 194.5 to negate this bearish view.S1: 178 S2: 174 R1: 186 R2: 190

MCX Mentha Oil July: - Resistance at 510 – 512 levels. Favored view expects rallies to find resistance and move lower towards 500 levels. Rally above 516 to negate this bearish view.S1:- 502 S2:- 497 R1:- 509 R2:- 513

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The Gold Price movement for august contract is getting cramped between the two converging trend lines Support take on the red color trend line and bounce up.
Support will be at 14454-14381.
A fall and close below 14381 can bring about a further fall and a sharp fall.
In the same way the resistance of pink color trend line and the lower top of 14823 must be crossed.
Resistance will be at 14615-14823.
Traders long can take profit on rise to 14615-14823.
Sell on fall below 14381.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Support will be at 21817.
Sell on fall below 21817 with high of the day stop loss or 22131 whichever is higher.
A rise towards 22134 is possible.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 22134 and when it falls below 22134 then sell with high above 22134 as the stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

The retracement of 928$ and 922$ was tested yesterday. The low registered in last 2 trading days is 922$.
Yesterday the close was higher at 940.25$.
Resistance will be at 943$-950$.
Support will be at 922$.
A breakout and close above 950$ can bring about a rise to test back the recent peak.
A fall and close below 922$ will test back 910$ at least and can even move down towards the low of 880$ and 864$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 850$ and look to cover on dip towards 933$-922$.
Sell again below 922$.
A range of movement between 950$-922$ is being witnessed. A sustained breakout or breakdown can decide further course of price movement.


INT. SPOT SILVER ::

Support of 13.59$ was violated 2 days back. Yesterday it closed up at 13.74$.
Support will be at 13.61$-13.46$.
Traders who are short can maintain a stop loss of 13.86$ and look to cover short positions at support of 13.61$ or below.
Sell again below 13.45$ with high of the day stop loss.
Resistance will be at 13.83$-14.13$.


NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

A sideways movement in a band of 73.3$-66$ is likely to be witnessed. A fall and close below 66$ can bring about a correction.
On the immediate front look for rise towards 73$ to exit and take profit as the opportunity arises and re-enter long above 73.5$.


HG COPPER COMEX ::

The wave structure of the rise from 72$(2001) to 404$(2006) shows a 5 wave increase and then a corrective irregular flat pattern move down to 125$(2008). A pullback rise has been witnessed from 125$ to 245$.
Support will be at 211$.
A fall and close below 211$ will begin its down movement in form of Wave C.
Wave B of correction could get terminated at current level or on rise to 265$-297$.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

VIEWS FOR 1ST JULY 2009

MCX Gold August: Resistances at 14541-14572 to cap for a decline towards 14261. This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 14619 to cause doubts on this view. Such a rise could neutralize our bearishexpectations. S1: 14320 S2: 14250 R1: 14570 R2: 14650

MCX Silver September: Resistances at 22305/22337 to cap for a fall towards 21289. Unexpected rise above 22434 to cause doubts on our bearish view. S1: 21650 S2: 21400 R1: 22250 R2: 22500

MCX Copper June: Break below 242/243 changed the bullish picture. Any decline below 237 to drag pricesfurther lower. Resistance is at 246 followed by 250 levels now.S1: 239 S2: 236 R1: 246 R2: 249

MCX Crudeoil July:Strong resistance will be seen at 3471/3474 level now.Unexpected rise above 3520 to dent bearish expectation.S1:3295 S2:3260 R1:3380 R2:3415

MCX Zinc July: Rallies to 75.30/75.50 to find resistance for a move lower towards 72.40 levels . Rise above 76.20 to negate this bearish view S1: 73.30 S2: 72.40 R1: 75.30 R2: 76.45

MCX Lead July : Rallies to 81.40/81.55 to find resistance for a move lower towards 79.40 levels . Rise above 83.05 to negate this bearish view.S1: 80.60 S2: 79.50 R1: 82.30 R2: 83.60

MCX Nickel July:Rally to 747/751 to find resistance for move lower toward 718 level . Rise above 764 to negate this bearish view.S1:725 S2:710 R1:760 R2:775.

MCX Naturalgas July: Rally to 192/195 to find resistance for move lower toward 183 level. Rise above 198to negate bearish view. S1:182 S2:178 R1:189 R2:192


GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 14494 – 14581 with stop loss of Rs. 14624.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 14364 – 14277.
Sell more on close below Rs. 14100.
As the trend is down, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 14581 and when it fall below Rs. 14581, then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 14581 as a stop loss. Subsequently, cover short at Rs. 14494 – Rs. 14364 range or below.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Sell on rise to 22097-22377 with a stop loss of 22550.
Expect lower range of 21644-21364 to be tested. A bounce can come from lower range.
Volumes were larger therefore a rise and close above 25550 can mark a reversal.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

The recent peak of 73.3$ was tested and reacted down to close at 69.89$.
Traders still long can take profit or exit long position on rise to 71.6$-73.3$ as the opportunity arises.
Re-enter long on rise and close above 73.50$.
Support will be at 68$-66$.
A fall and close below 66$, Crude Oil can undergo a correction with a fall in price.

VIEW FOR 30TH JUNE 2009

MCX Gold August: Resistance is a 14647-14678 levels. Ideally a consolidation in the 14493-14648 zone will be followed by a rise towards 14866 levels.This is our favored view. Fall below 14337 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 14520 S2: 14420 R1: 14710 R2: 14820

MCX Silver September : Resistance is at 22636 followed by 22958 now. Break above resistances to take prices higher 23600.Supports are at 22092/22108.S1: 22050 S2: 21800 R1: 22550 R2: 22800

MCX Copper June: Rise above 247.85 looks positive for a rally towards 255/256 levels now. Favored view expects supports at 245.7 to hold for a rally higher. Fall below 242 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 244 S2: 241 R1: 253 R2: 257

MCX CrudeoilJuly: Strong resistance seen at 3521/3524 level now. A good correction from those level can be expected. S1: 3400 S2: 3365 R1: 3485 R2: 3525

MCX Zinc July:While above 74.50, expect price to rally toward 77.70 level. Fall below 74.50 to negate bullish view. S1:74.30 S2:73.10 R1:76.30 R2:77.45

MCX Lead July:While above 81.00 , expect price to rally toward 83.30 level. Fall below 81.00 to negate bullish view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.40 R2: 84.60

MCX Nickel July:Support at 758/755 to hold dip for rally toward 785/790 level. Fall below 740 to negate this bullish view. S1:745 S2:730 R1: 770 R2: 785

MCX Naturalgas July: Dip to 190/188 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negate this bullish view. . S1: 190 S2: 187 R1: 195 R2: 199

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

Gold is struggling at the pink color trend line.
Resistance will be at 14654-14700.
Use rise to 14654-14700 to take profit and exit long positions if any.
On fall below 14553 expect a slide down towards red color trend line.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Sell on rise to 22443-22578 with a stop loss of 22665.
Expect lower range of 22221-22210 to be tested.
If the close is below 22200 then the slide can get extended.
A bounce back up from the support is possible.
A close above 22665 can mark a near term reversal.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Resistance will be at 943$-950$.
Traders can buy on rise above 950$ with low of the day stop loss.
Traders already holding long positions can take profit at resistance level and re-enter long on rise and close above 950$.
A correction down to 930$-922$ range is possible before attempts to cross 950$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

The blue color trend line was tested but failed to sustained and reacted down at the closing.
Support will be at 13.59$ which can be tested.
On sustained fall and close below 13.59$ the correction can get extended on the downside.
Resistance will be at 13.99$-14.4$.
A breakout and close above 14.4$ can only bring about a near term pullback rise.
Traders who are already holding long positions can look for resistance to exit long positions. Re-enter long on rise and close above 14.4$.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Red color line is getting tested again.
The recent peak placed at 73.3$ which can be tested.
On breakout and close above 73.5$ with a positive candle can continue the rally after the short period of sideways correction.
Support will be at 70$-68$.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!!

VIEWS FOR 29TH JUNE 2009 WITH OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE

MCX Gold August: Supports are at 14518 followed by 14409 now. Favored view expects the rally to continuehigher towards 14891 levels as long as supports hold. S1: 14550 S2: 14420 R1: 14750 R2: 14840

MCX Silver September : Important support is at 22109 now. Break below this level can take prices further lower . However, favored view expects this support to hold for a rally higher towards 23104 and then 23617 subsequently. S1: 22300 S2: 22100 R1: 22850 R2: 23200

MCX Crude Oil July : Fall below 3363 has opened the downside for 3135 levels now. Rallies to 3397 can besold for targets at 3128 stop 3485.S1: 3300 S2: 3265 R1: 3400 R2: 3445

MCX Copper June: Fall below 241.50 could increase the chances of a fall towards 236/237 levels. However,a direct rise above 247/248 to take prices higher towards 254/255 levels. S1: 241 S2: 238 R1: 249 R2: 252

MCX Zinc June: Dips to 74.60/74.30 to find support for a move higher towards 77.1 levels . Fall below 73.50to raise doubts about this view. S1: 74.30 S2: 72.10 R1: 76.30 R2: 77.45

MCX Lead June : Dips to 80.30/80.00 to find support for a move higher towards 82.75 levels . Fall below78.45 to raise doubts about this view. S1: 81.60 S2: 80.50 R1: 83.70 R2: 84.60

MCX NickelJune : Dip to 739/735 to find support for move higher toward 775 level. Fall below 719 to raise doubt about this view. S1:745 S2:720 R1: 765 R2: 778

MCX NaturalGas July : ip to 194/192 to hold for rise toward 202/206 level now. Fall below 185 to negatebullish view. S1: 194 S2: 190 R1: 199 R2: 203

TRADING STARTEGY ::

GOLD MCX AUGUST ::

The trend line breakout attempts failed again as the close still could not be above the pink color falling trend line. Traders still holding long positions can look for rise to 14682-14752-14823 to take profit and exit long positions. Re-enter long if the close is above 14823 with a positive candle.
Immediate support will be at 14612.
A fall and close below 14612 can take the price down towards 14581-14511 range.

SILVER MCX SEPTEMBER ::

Resistance will be at 22885 and 22977.
The volumes registered on Friday was high and the candle movement was an inverted hammer which suggest that until the high of 22885 is not cross on the closing basis, further upside movement and momentum is unlikely to continue.
On the immediate front, traders who are by chance long on Silver can look for rise to 22818-22974 to exit and take profit. Re-enter long on further rise and close above 22977.
Traders holding long positions can maintain a stop loss of 22641.
On fall below 22641, support of 22574-22486 can be tested.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Our expectation was that the red color trend line to be tested.
The same was witnessed on Friday. We saw the red color trend line getting test from a high of 948.2$ and reacted down to close at 938.55$.
Further up move can be witnessed only on breakout and close above 950$.
A minor correction to sideways movement is possible.
The minor correction can be of the rise from 912.90$(recent low in last 1 month) and the high of last week which is 948.2$.
The 50% and 61.8% retracement level are placed at 929$ and 913$ respectively
Broadly a sideways movement is the band of 950$-910$ is likely in near term.
Only a breakout and close above 950$ with a strong positive candle can restore the hope of the peak of 989$ to be tested.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Expectation was that a rise towards blue color trend line would be witnessed.
The rise was witnessed as per our expectation. Silver tested the blue color trend line and reacted down to close lower.
The high registered on Friday was 14.32$ and closed at 14.07$.
Resistance will be at 14.32$-14.39$.
A breakout and close above 14.40$ can bring about a pullback rally.
Support will be at 13.89$-13.59$.

OUT LOOK ON COMEX GOLD AND SILVER FOR MEDIUMTERM AS ON 28TH JUNE ::
GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell to as low as 913.2 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and rebounded. Break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We now turn cautiously bullish in gold in near term and expect further rise towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.

SILVER WEEKLY OUTLOOK;-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver fell further to as low as 13.595 but hold above 61.8% retracement of 11.725 to 16.25 at 13.454 and recovered. Nevertheless, the strength of the recovery was rather unconvincing as it's limited below 14.425 minor resistance. Silver is at a junction but with 14.425 resistance intact, risk is on the downside. Another break of 13.595 will put key medium term trend line support (now at 13.00) into focus. On the upside, though, considering bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 14.425 resistance will indicate that correction from 16.25 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this high.
In the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in daily MACD serves as an important alert that whole rise from 8.4 has completed with three waves up to 16.25 already. Break of the trend line support (now at 13.00) will add much credence to this case. Further break of 11.725 will confirm and bring retest of 8.4 low. However, note that strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 14.425 resistance will save the bullish case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress. Another high above 16.25 should at least be seen before topping.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as correction, or part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.01 and was supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.01 to 21.44 at 8.123. Recent development starts to argue that rebound from 8.4 is in form of a three wave corrective structure while in turn suggest that whole correction from 21.44 is not completed yet. But after all, we'd continue to favor the case that rise from 8.4 is still in progress for a retest of 21.44 high as long as Silver stays above the trend line from 8.4

NYMEX WEEKLY CRUDE OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.
In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.
In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.