outlook for gold silver crude as on 23-3-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold retreats mildly after hitting as high as 967.80 but after all, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 929.60 minor support holds. As discussed before, correction from 1007.7 should have completed at 882.7, supported by 38.2% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 882.9. Further rise is now expected to retest 1007.7 first and then 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 929.6 will turn intraday outlook neutral. But recent rally is still expected to resume as long as 882.7 low is intact.
In the bigger picture, while the correction is slightly deeper than expected, the over all outlook doesn't change. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, however, another fall below 882.7 will open up a few short term bearish scenarios that should at least bring deeper for to 801.5 cluster support or below before resuming the long term up trend.
COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :Comex Silver (SI)
Silver retreats mildly after hitting as high as 13.74 and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 13.00 minor support holds. Break of 13.285 resistance confirms that corrective fall from 14.6 has completed with three waves down to 11.89 already. Further rally should now be seen to retest 14.6 high first. On the downside, below 13.00 will turn intraday bias neutral. But short term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 11.89 low remains intact.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.83 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude edges further higher to 52.34 today and remains firm. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 46.92 and further rally is still expected. As discussed before, sustained trading above 50.47 key resistance will pave the way for strong rally towards next key level of 60, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 60.34. On the downside, though, below 46.92 will indicate that rise from 33.55 has completed and will turn intraday outlook neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the break of 50.47 resistance serves as an important signal that crude oil has finally bottomed out in medium term, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, after drawing support from 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone. Sustained trading above 50.47 will confirm this case and open up the prospect of stronger rally towards next key level at 90.51 (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.5 at 90.38).

NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
The strong rebound in Natural Gas and touching of 4.38 resistance is taken as the first sign that it has bottomed out at 3.672, slightly above mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Sustained trading above 4.38 will turn short term outlook bullish for 4.88 resistance next. On the downside, while some pull back might be seen, short term outlook will now be neutral at worst as long as 3.672 low holds.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned above, touching of 4.38 resistance is taken as the first signal that decline from 13.69 has bottomed out at 3.672. Bullish convergence condition in daily MACD is supporting this case too. Further break of 4.88 resistance will confirm this case and bring medium term rebound to cluster resistance at 7.36 (38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.67 at 7.499.

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 20TH MARCH 2009

MCX Gold April: A potential target at 15460 has been met. A corrective fall towards 15240 or even lower towards 15045/15080 looks likely.As long as 15030 hold the bullish trend is expected to continue. S1: 15260 S2: 15140 R1: 15525 R2: 15660

MCX Silver May: Important near-term support is at 21990 now. While below 22436/22485 expect a corrective fall towards 21910 or even lower.Direct rise above 22436 to indicate bullish strength for a 23225. S1: 22030 S2: 21800 R1: 22450 R2: 22700

MCX Copper April: Crucial support is at 196. While above this level we can expect the rally to continue towards 204/207 levels. This is our favored view.Fall below 196 to lead to a corrective fall. S1: 196 S2: 193 R1: 204 R2: 207

MCX Crude Oil April : As expected we saw 2630/2656 being tested. A consolidation in the 2545 and 2605 zone can be expected followed by a rise towards 2770.This is our favored view. Fall below 2500 to cause doubts on this bullish view. S1: 2610 S2: 2545 R1: 2645 R2: 2770

MCX Zinc March: Dips to 61.7 likely to find support for a move higher towards 63.4 or even higher towards 64.0 levels.Only a move below 61.0 to negate this bullish view.S1: 61.7 S2: 59.85 R1: 62.4 R2: 63.5

MCX Lead March: Until supports at 66.5/66.0 holds prices may move higher towards 69.0 levels.Moves below 65.6 may negate our bullish view.S1: 66.5 S2: 65.2 R1: 67.5 R2: 69.0

MCX Nickel March: Moves below 502 may take prices further down to 493.On the other hand a break above 515 would rekindle some bullish hopes.S1: 502 S2: 497 R1: 512 R2: 519

MCX Natural Gas April ips to 202/203 likely to find support for a move higher towards 214 or even higher towards 219 levels. Only a move below 198 to negate this bullish view.S1: 203 S2: 198 R1: 214 R2: 219

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX APRIL ::

The trend has turned up.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15236 – Rs. 15013 or below as the opportunity arises.
Buy on dips to Rs. 15236 – Rs. 15013 with stop loss of Rs. 14835.
Expect a rise towards Rs. 15638 – Rs. 15861.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 15236 and when it rises above Rs. 15236 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 15236 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15638 – Rs. 15861 range or above.

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend has turned up.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 21813 – Rs. 21209 or below as the opportunity arises.
Buy on dips to Rs. 21813 – Rs. 21209 with stop loss of Rs. 20800.
Expect a rise towards Rs. 22827 – Rs. 23431.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 21813 and when it rises above Rs. 21813 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 21813 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22827 – Rs. 23431 range or above.


INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Resistance is being witnessed at 958$-963$.
A further rise and close above 963$ can take the price up to test the higher range of 975$-1006$.
Support will be at 948$-925$.
Traders can buy on rise above 963$ with low of the day stop loss.
Corrective dip to 948$ or below could be used for buying with a stop loss of 925$.
A fall and close below 925$ can take the price for gold back down to 882$ or below.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Resistance is being witnessed at 13.69$.
On further rise and close above 13.69$ with a positive candle can take the price up to test the higher range of 14.09$-14.63$.
Support will be at 13.30$-13.02$-12.63$. Corrective dip to support could be used for buying.
Overall Stop loss for long positions can be 12.63$.
A close below 12.63$ can take the price down to test 11.89$. It could even move down to fall further.
Therefore the support of 12.63$ will be important from here on.


COPPER MCX APRIL ::
Looks to be on the verge of break out. But, a pull back andaccumulation at 195 would deem healthy for the trend, as priceshave already met the rising trendline in comex as well as lmecharts. A direct rise above 202 would dispel all such doubtscalling for 215.
Nymex Crude:
Expect pull back initially. To take support at50.9/66 for a pull towards 53. This is ourfavoured view. Falls below 50.5 to signal thatdownswing is maturing

ENJOY TRADING !!!!


MUNNABHAI ANALYST
CELL :- +91-9820555212

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD:A recovery was seen yesterday after testing the retracement level of 882$.
Expect a volatile movement within the price band of 950$-882$ for some time being taking any further decisive movement henceforth.
Traders can go long on rise and close above 950$.
Corrective dip to support of 915$-882$ could be used to exit short positions as the opportunity arises.
The situation will arise in next few days to avoid trading as the volatility within the band could be witnessed.
Yesterday rise towards the closing was abnormal therefore the rise could get erased first to an extent before taking any decisive move again.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER;We were expect the level of 12.40$ to get tested.
Yesterday, we saw an abnormal movement on the downside and equally strong recovery to bring back the situation where it was before the fall.
The 61.8% retracement on the chart was tested which was placed at 11.97$ and the low registered was 11.89$ to close at 12.9$.
Only a rise and close above 13.02$ can take the price up.
Cover short positions on dip to 12.40$-11.97$ range as the opportunity arises

MXC GOLD EXPECTATION:Gold has taken support on the channel line as shown in the chart.
It has also covered the gap which was in the range of 14895-14729.
The low registered yesterday was 14640 and closed at 14795.
The international spot gold price after the MCX exchange closed yesterday night moved up sharply. On the back of the movement on international spot gold movement, we could find price opening higher with a gap. We could see price opening approximately at the L3 or above which is at 15075.
The high registered yesterday on MCX GOLD APRIL was at 15138. The early morning trades could see price movement in the range of 15075-15138.
The falling trend line is placed at 15238.
Traders who are still holding short positions could be in trouble as the opening will be with a gap.
Cover short positions at 14858 or below as the opportunity arises. Fresh downside movement and momentum could only be witnessed on fall and close below 14640.
The bias now could turn up or could move sideways after opening with a gap. Intra-day volatility with be very high.

MCX SILVER EXPECTATION:
A channel breakdown was seen yesterday with volume.
The price range of yesterday that is high and low will be important.
The high and low registered yesterday was 21635 and 20435.
The volume registered were highest of the contract. A close above yesterday high of 21635 could mark a reversal. A falling trend line breakout will confirm a reversal. The trend line value is placed at 22059.
Expect a gap up positive opening in comparison to yesterday close. In the early morning trades, we could find Silver testing L3 which is at 21376. The trend on MCX Silver is still down.
Wait for a rise above 21376 and when it falls below 21376 then sell with high above 21376 as the stop loss.
A close above yesterday high of 21635 and a breakout above the trend line will take the Silver price back up to test the peak range of 22800-23885.
Similarly, any sustained fall below yesterday low and a close below it can take the prices crashing down to 18000 price level.
Therefore, next couple of trading days will play an important role as to decide the further course of price action. As significant change of price action could be seEN

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 18TH MARCH 2009

VIEWS ::

MCX Gold April: Resistances are at 15186 followed by 15252 levels now. Direct rise above 15285 to indicate bullish strength.But, big picture weakness persists and therefore favor a fall below 14955. S1: 15050 S2: 14950 R1: 15200 R2: 15270

MCX Silver May: Resistances are at 21823 followed by 22000/22030 levels now. Favored view expects a drop towards 19368 or even lower as long as resistances cap the upside. Only a rise above 22370/22455 to cause doubts on our bearish view. S1: 21400 S2: 21250 R1: 21800 R2: 22150

MCX Copper April: Strong supports are at 192.2/ 193.4 for the present uptrend to sustain and continue higher.Crucial support is at 191.2 and a break below this level could decrease the bullishness.S1: 192 S2: 187 R1: 198 R2: 202

MCX Crude Oil April : Supports are at 2518 followed by 2490. While above 2530, prices should aim for the recent highs at 2630 or even higher.Unexpected fall below 2432 will force us to abandon our bullish view. S1: 2535 S2: 2485 R1: 2630 R2: 2670

MCX Zinc March: Dips are expected to find support at 61.75 levels for a move higher towards 63.65 64.0 .A fall below 61.30 to negate this bullish view. S1: 61.75 S2: 61.0 R1: 63.0 R2: 64.1

MCX Lead March: Supports at 67.35 66.85 likely to hold dips for a move higher towards 70.65 71.0 levels.Only a fall below 65.75 to negate this bullish view. S1: 68.00.1 S2: 67.00 R1: 69.6 R2: 70.2

MCX Nickel March: Dips to 500 : 503 likely to find support for a move higher towards 540 levels.Only a move below 487 to cause doubts about this bullish view. S1: 515 S2: 510 R1: 525 R2: 534


TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX APRIL ::

The trend is down.
Sell on rise to Rs.. 15166 – Rs. 15223 with stop loss of Rs. 15260.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 15072 – Rs. 15015.
Support will be at Rs. 14910 – Rs. 14850.
Expect a big fall if close below 14850.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15223 and when it falls below Rs. 15223 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15223 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15166 – Rs. 15072 range or below.

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend is down.
Sell at market price and on rise to Rs. 21764 – Rs. 21931 with stop loss of Rs. 22060..
Expect a fall towards Rs. 21469 – Rs. 21302.
On sustain fall, lower levels of Rs. 20620 – Rs. 19250 could be witnessed in coming sessions.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 21931 and when it falls below Rs. 21931 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 21931 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 21764 – Rs. 21469 range or below.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Support will be at 12.50$-12.40$.
Yesterday low was at 12.63$. A fall below 12.63$ will take the price down in the range of 12.50$-12.40$.
Resistance will be at 12.78$-12.88$-12.99$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
The price movement is getting narrower.
Support will be at 904$ and 896$.
Resistance will be at 919$-924$ and 930$..

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.
CELL :- +91-9820555212

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATGEY FOR 17TH MARCH 2009

VIEWS ::

MCX Gold April: As long as 15324/15357 resists, expect a move lower towards 14945 followed by 14830.However, break above 15406 will negate this bearish view.S1: 15165 S2: 14950 R1: 15300 R2: 15400

MCX Silver May: As long as 22068/22153 resists expect a move lower towards 21338 followed by 21152.However, break above 22442 will negate this bearish view S1: 21700 S2: 21450 R1: 22200 R2: 22550

MCX Copper April: Dips to 190.6/191.8 to find support for a rally to 202 followed by 206.5 .Break below 188.4 to negate this bullish view.S1: 193 S2: 187 R1: 201 R2: 205

MCX Crude Oil April : Dips to 2384/2368 to find support for a rally to 2540 followed by 2603.Break below 2296 to negate this bullish view.S1: 2425 S2: 2385 R1: 2485 R2: 2520

MCX Zinc March: Up moves may take prices to 64.5 levels. Supports are at 62.7 levels.Close below this level may negate our bullish view.S1: 62.7 S2: 61.6 R1: 64.5 R2: 65.5

MCX Lead March: Until support at 66.1 holds prices may move up to 67.6 levels or even higher.Fall below 65.3 may negate our bullish view.S1: 66.1 S2: 65.3 R1: 67.6 R2: 68.2

MCX Nickel March: Up moves may find resistance at 534.0 until support of 518 holds.Moves below 510 may negate our bullish view.S1: 515 S2: 510 R1: 525 R2: 534

MCX Natural Gas March : -.Prices may move down and find support at 197/198 levels. Moves beyond 201/203 to negate our bearish view.S1: 197 S2: 194 R1: 202 R2: 205

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX APRIL ::

The trend has turned down.
Sell on rise to Rs. 14227 – Rs. 15342 with stop loss of Rs. 15475.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 15104 – Rs. 14989.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15342 and when it falls below Rs. 15342 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15342 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15227 – Rs. 15104 range or below.

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend has turned down.
Sell on rise to Rs. 21974 – Rs. 22208 with stop loss of Rs. 22446.
Expect a fall towards Rs. 21665 – Rs. 21431.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 22208 and when it falls below Rs. 22208 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 22208 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 21974 – Rs. 21665 range or below.

INTERNATIOANL SPOT SILVER ::

Expect further selling pressure on fall and close below 12.78$.
Generally, look for rise to exit long positions.
Resistance will be at 13.16$-13.30$.
A pullback rise could be witnessed on rise and close above 13.30$.
A sideways movement could be witnessed generally.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Sideways movement is being witnessed.
Support is at 919$-915$.
Expect selling pressure on fall and close below 915$.
Resistance is at 929$-939$.
In case of close above 940$ then expect spike in prices before further fall at a later date.

MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 16TH MARCH 2009

MCX Gold April: Test of 15600 – 15650 seems within reach as long as 15155 holds . Fall below 15155 would cause doubts about this bullish view. Such a dip could drag
the price a little lower towards 14957 before showing an upturn for the expected rally. The favored view is that there is a chance to touch 15651 while we stay above 15155.
S1: 15190 S2: 14990 R1: 15400 R2: 15600

MCX Silver May: Structure shows bullishness for a rise towards minimum 22590 or ideally towards 23060. Fall below 21730 would most probably change this outlook.
If this view fails that would be first indicated by drop below 21730 followed by a breach of 21020. Favored view expects 21730 to hold for next rise.S1: 21930 S2: 21530 R1: 22300 R2: 22650

MCX Copper April: As long as 182/184 holds support, expect a move towards 202 followed by 210.Break below 182 to negate this bullish view.S1: 184 S2: 179 R1: 192 R2: 195

MCX Crude Oil April : A dip to supports is anticipated first towards 2235, 2210 or maximum 2195. Ideally next rally towards levels above 2625 should begin after this decline.
Fall below 2195 would hint at further weakness towards 2152 or 2080.Do not buy without a confirmed upturn. Unexpected rise above 2528 would change this view.
S1: 2375 S2: 2325 R1: 2450 R2: 2500

MCX Zinc March: As long as 62.2 holds support, expect a move towards 63.0 followed by 63.4 where it can find resistance.Break below 62.0 to negate this bullish view.
S1: 62.0 S2: 61.0 R1: 63.0 R2: 63.5

MCX Nickel March: As long as 492 holds support, expect a move towards 501 where it can find resistance. Break below 492 to negate this bullish view and can drag prices to 481 levels.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 501 R2: 510

MCX Natural Gas March : -.Prices may move down and find support at 200/201 levels. Moves beyond 207/208 to negate our bearish view.S1: 201 S2: 197 R1: 204.8 R2: 208

TRADING STARTEGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::

The trend is up but a breakout is needed for a rally.
Traders already long can look to book profits at higher levels to Rs. 15344 – Rs. 15478 or above as the opportunity arises or revise stop loss to Rs. 15210 vice versa.
Buy on breakout and close above Rs. 15660.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 15213 and when it rises above Rs. 15213 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 15213 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15344 – Rs. 15478 range or above.

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend has turned up.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 22271 – Rs. 22095 as the opportunity arises.
Sell only on fall and close below Rs. 21730.
Buy only on breakout and close above Rs. 22850.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 22095 and when it rises above Rs. 22095 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 22095 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22271 – Rs. 22502 range or above.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Resistance will be at 936$-945$.
Support is at 919$, 905$ and 896$.
A rise and close above 936$ can continue its pullback towards 975$.
Traders who are long by chance now can look for rise to 936$-945$ to book profits and re-enter long on close above 946$. Traders who area short need to maintain short positions with a stop loss 946$ and look for dip to support to cover short.
Further major crash can be witnessed only on fall and close below 895$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A pull back to test the retracement level of 13.50$-13.77$ could be attempted.
Support of 12.88$ hold the key.
A fall and close below 12.88$ can take Silver down to test back 12.40$.
Traders need to maintain a stop loss of 12.88$ if holding long positons.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 13TH MARCH 2009

VIEWS ::
MCX Gold April: As expected we saw a move towards 15304 levels.We can expect a consolidation now in the 15188-15304 zone and then rise higher towards 15600-15635 levels. This is our favored view. Fall below 15159 to cause doubts on this view.S1: 15240 S2: 14990 R1: 15403 R2: 15600

MCX Silver May: Supports are at 21920/21936 presently. Favored view expects supports to hold and rise towards 22310/22396 levels or even higher.Fall below 21700 to dent our bullish view.S1: 21930 S2: 21530 R1: 22300 R2: 22650

MCX Copper April: Despite the fall , a good bounce is seen and a break above 193 to revive bullish hopes for a test of 210 or even higher.S1: 184 S2: 179 R1: 188 R2: 19

MCX Crude Oil April : Rise above 2375 a bullish sign as cautioned in the previous update. Supports are at 2372 followed by 2300 now.Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 2525 or even higher. Fall below 2290 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 2375 S2: 2325 R1: 2450 R2: 2500

MCX Zinc March: Prices may move down and find support at 62.35 or even lower at 61.0 .Close above 63.0 to negate our bearish view.S1: 62.35 S2: 61.0 R1: 63.5 R2: 64.5

MCX Lead March: Supports are at 63.4/62.4 levels now. While above these levels prices could stay firm and test resistance at 64.7.However a fall below 63.0 could see prices correct towards supports at 60.8.S1: 63.0 S2: 60.5 R1: 64.7 R2: 66.0

MCX Nickel March: Prices have broken out from the trading band of 500-515 downwards and closed at 494.5 levels.Prices may move down and find support at 481 levels. Close above 502 to negate our bearish view.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 501 R2: 510

TRADING STRATEGY ::

GOLD MCX APRIL ::

The trend is down but can reverse.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15287 – Rs. 15125 as the opportunity arises.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 15463 and when it falls below Rs. 15463 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 15463 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 15287 – Rs. 15125 range or below.

Daily Clsoing Reversal : 15316

SILVER MCX MAY ::

The trend is down but a short covering is being witnessed.
Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 22024 – Rs. 21773 as the opportunity arises.
Sell on fall below Rs. 21456. with high of the day as a stop loss.
As the trend is down, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs. 22316 and when it falls below Rs. 22316 then sell with whatever high registered above Rs. 22316 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 22024 – Rs. 21773 range or below.

Daily Closing Reversal : 22171

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
Resistance will be at 13.02$-13.08$.
A further rise and close above 13.08$ can take the Silver price up towards 13.20$-13.30$.
Support will be at 12.78$-12.63$.
On the hourly chart, a trend line breakout will be witnessed on rise above 13.08$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Resistance will be at 931$.
A further rise and close above 931$ can take the Gold price up towards 935$-945$. Sustainability at higher range can be an issue.
Support will be at 915$-903$
For intra-day hourly trader the range is 919$-931$.
Traders can trade long for intra-day with a stop loss or 919$.
Alternatively, sell below 919$ with a stop loss of 931$ or high of the day which ever is higher at the point of breakdown.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!
MUNNABHAI ANALYST, M. M. A. S.

OUTLOOK FOR 11TH MARCH 2009

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD VIEW FOR THE DAY AND NEAR TERM:Support at lower levels will be witnessed first of the channel and then of the retracement level of 882$.
Support Cluster will be in the range of 890$-873$ which could be tested during the day.
Some bounce back could be witnessed from the support range.
Resistance will be at 903$-915$-935$.
Spurt on intra-day towards 903$-915$ is possible as yesterday was the day of large wide movement on the downside. A relief rise to resistance is possible.
In case of fall and close below 873$ then expect the slide to move down towards 844$ to 806$.
Overall traders holding short positions can maintain a stop loss at 923$ to maintain short positions. Alternatively, cover short positions at support range and re-enter short on fall below 873$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER VIEW;-Support will be at 12.46$-12.40$.
Sell further on fall and close below 12.40$ with high of the day stop loss or 13.02$ whichever is higher at the point of breakdown.
If that happens then expect a slide towards 11.98$ at least.
Sell on rise to 12.75$ or above with a stop loss of 13.02$

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL:Traders can exit long positions on rise from current price to 50.50$ as the opportunity arises to re-enter long on close above 50.50$.
Intra-day traders can take chance to buy only above 48.9$.
A fall and close below 44.9$ can bring about a fall in price and Crude can go below the trend line which will mean a false breakout situation was witnessed.

VIEWS OF COMEX GOLD SILVER AND CRUDE 8/3/09

OUTLOOK ON COMEX GOLD FUTURES:Comex Gold (GC) :-
Gold's correction from 1007.7 was contained at 900.40, above 892 support as expected and rebounded strongly. An intraday low should be in place and initial outlook will remain neutral for this week. Break of 936.10 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1007.7 resistance first. Break will confirm up trend resumption for 1033.9 high next. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'd still expect downside to be contained by mentioned 892 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.

OUTLOOK ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver recovered strongly after correction from 14.6 extended to 12.45 last week. Break of 13.33 minor resistance suggests that such correction has completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for retesting 14.6 high. Break of confirm rally resumption towards next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, below 12.45 will indicate that mentioned correction is still in progress. But after all, we'd still expected downside to be contained by 11.77 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4 already. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 15.88 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will confirm this case and argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OTLOOK:-Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's choppy recovery from 33.55 extended further to as high as 46.30 last week but overall outlook remains unchanged. Such rise from 33.55 is treated as part of sideway consolidation that started at 34.98 only. Hence, while further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 50.47 and bring medium term down trend resumption. On the downside, below 39.44 minor support will suggest that rise from 33.55 has finally completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first.
In the bigger picture, while downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, there is no indication of a bottom yet. Price actions from 34.98 is still treated as sideway consolidation in the medium term down trend only. Break of 33.55 will suggest decline resumption towards long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower. . However, note that we'll continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil enter into 17.12/33.5 key long term support zone.
In the longer term picture, steep decline from 147.27 is treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal for the moment.

NATURAL GAS NEAR TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural Ga's recovery from 3.916 was limited at 4.380 last week and weakened sharply afterwards and is now back pressing 3.916 low. Such development argues that recent decline might be ready to resume this week. Initial bias will be on the downside and break of 3.916 will confirm fall resumption to next target of 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67.
On the upside, however, above 4.145 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and argue that consolidation from 3.916 is going to extend further before completion. In such case, another recovery could be seen to 4.38 resistance or above. Nevertheless, note that short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, staying well below 55 days EMA at 4.845, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34.
On the upside, break of 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 6.24 resistance for confirming completion of medium term down trend.

COMMODITY VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 6TH MARCH 2009

COMMODITY VIEWS ::

MCX Gold April: Supports are at 15337 followed by 15287.Ideally, supports to hold for a move towards 15652/15685 or even higher towards 15835 levels as long as 15304 holds. S1: 15287 S2: 15020 R1: 15560 R2: 15800

MCX Silver May: Immediate resistance is at 22842/22859 now The pullback could extend towards 23184 now. Supports are at 22500 followed by 22312 now. S1: 22190 S2: 21850 R1: 22670 R2: 23210

MCX Crude Oil March : While above 2116 we still believe a corrective pullback towards 2475 looks likely. We can expect a consolidation and a rally higher subsequently. S1: 2255 S2: 2150 R1: 2340 R2: 2450

MCX Copper April: Supports are at 186 levels and a break below to result in a bearish reaction. Favored view expects a consolidation and breakout higher. Fall below 181 to cause doubts on this view.S1: 187 S2: 183 R1: 191 R2: 195

MCX Zinc March: Prices may stall for some time and find support at 62.1/61.0 levels for a move higher towards 63.5 – 64.0 levels. Unexpected fall below 60.5 to cause doubts on bullish view.S1: 62.1 S2: 61.0 R1: 63.10 R2: 64.5

MCX Lead March: Prices may move down and find support at 59.0/58.45 levels for a move higher towards 61.0 levels. Unable to hold this level can take price to 56.5 level. S1: 60.3 S2: 59.2 R1: 61.0 R2: 62.6

MCX Nickel March: Moves below 501 will take prices to 493 level. However a break above 510 to negate this view. S1: 501 S2: 493 R1: 509 R2: 515

TRADING STRATEGY ::

MCX GOLD APRIL ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::Munnabhai Analyst: The trend is down but a trend line support has been taken. Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 15278 – Rs. 15127 as the opportunity arises.
Sell only on fall below Rs. 15000

MCX SILVER MAY ::

The trend is down but a reversal can not be ruled out. Ideally, cover all earlier short positions at
market price and on dips to Rs. 22314 – Rs. 22160 as the opportunity arises.
Sell only on fall below Rs. 21580.
A pullback towards Rs. 22577 – Rs. 22731 could be witnessed.

International Spot Gold ::

A bounce back from the 50% retracement has been witnessed. A pullback rise is possible of the fall from the peak of 1006$ to 899$ before making any further attempts to breakdown again.
Immediate resistance will be at 937$-940$
On further rise and close above 941$, expect a rise towards 952$-965$.
Traders holding short positions need to cover it at current price on dip during the day to 922$-904$ range as the opportunity arises.
The hourly chart shows the pullback retracement levels. From the hourly chart angle. Immediate support is at 930$-928$.
Traders undertaken trading positions probably need to maintain a tight trading long positions stop loss at 928$. A fall below 928$ could see an intra-day correction before making attempts to move up for a pullback rise.

International Spot Silver ::

A rise towards the pullback level of the fall from 14.6$-12.41$ is in process. Expect higher range of 13.50$-13.76$ to be tested.
Support is at 13.20$-13.15$ and 12.86$.

Copper LME ::

Ascending trend line breakout was witnessed couple of days back. On the immediate front, Copper is likely to exhibit a sideways movement in the band of 3790$-3515$.
A fall and close below 3515$ will end all hopes of a further rise.
If that happens then expect all the lower levels to be revisited again..

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 27TH FEB. 2009

MCX Gold April: Supports are at 15130/15146 levels now. Ideally, we expect supports to hold for a rally towards 15453 or 15598. Fall below supports could test 14952 or even lower.S1: 15100 S2: 14800 R1: 15490 R2: 15670

MCX Silver Mar: Rise above 21887/21920 to test 22220 or even higher towards 22403. Supports are at 21704 followed by 21554. Fall below 21488 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 21290 S2: 20600 R1: 22060 R2: 22500

MCX Copper April: Fall below 170 could signal weakness and a close below 1 68 could take prices lower again towards recent lows or even lower.However, for now while above 170/171 there are good chances of a test of 185/186 levels. S1: 175 S2: 170 R1: 178 R2: 183

MCX Crude Oil March : Important support is at 2206/2207 now. Failure to hold support here could lead it to 2177 and 2124. Favored view expects 2184 levels to hold for a rally towards 2360 levels. Fall below 2184 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1: 2205 S2: 2130 R1: 2280 R2: 2374

MCX Zinc March: - Rise above 57.30 to test 58.15 or even higher towards 58.8. Supports are at 56.7 followed by 55.35. Fall below 55.3 to dent our bullish expectations.S1: 56.70 S2: 55.35 R1: 57.3 R2: 59.3

MCX Lead March: Dips to 51.9 and 51.1 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 54.0. This is our favored view. Fall below 51.0 to dent our bullish view.S1: 51.90 S2: 51.10 R1: 52.75 R2: 54.0

MCX Nickel March: Supports are at 509/510 levels now. Ideally, we expect supports to hold for a rally towards 523 or 538. Fall below supports could test 505 or even lower.S1: 505 S2: 496 R1: 517 R2: 538

MCX Natural Gas March: - Strong support is seen at 200 levels. Moves beyond 208 may take prices to 213 or even higher. Fall below 200 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 204 S2: 200 R1: 209 R2: 213

TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 26TH FEB. 2009

MCX Gold April: Supports are seen at 15004-15020 now. Failure to hold support here could result in a fall towards 14830/14860 levels.Resistances are at 15338/15370 now. S1: 15340 S2: 15145 R1: 15625 R2: 16000

MCX Silver Mar: Rallies to 22350/22365 to resist for a decline towards 21540 or even lower. This is our favored view. Unexpected rise above 22700 to cause doubts about this view. S1: 22650 S2: 22140 R1: 23000 R2: 23565

MCX Copper April: Initial resistance is at 181/182 levels. Beyond which it could target recent highs at 188/189 where it could find very strong resistance. S1: 167 S2: 163 R1: 172 R2: 176

MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 2014 and 1983 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 2424. This is our favored view. Fall below 1980 to dent our bullish view.S1: 2059 S2: 2015 R1: 2135 R2: 2208

MCX Zinc March: - Dips to 56.35 could find support for a move higher towards 58.9/59.3, break below 55.6 would negate this bullish view. S1: 56.35 S2: 55.35 R1: 57.3 R2: 59.3

MCX Lead March: Prices closed above resistance level 51.55. Up rallies may take price to 54.0 level.Moves below 50.8 will negate our bullish view. S1: 51.40 S2: 50.53 R1: 52.65 R2: 54.0

MCX Nickel March: Dips to 510 to hold support for a bullish rise towards 538. This is our favored view. Fall below 507 to dent our bullish view. S1: 512 S2: 507 R1: 523 R2: 538

MCX Natural Gas March: - Prices may move below 200 level and find support around 196. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view. S1: 200 S2: 196 R1: 204 R2: 210

TRADING STRATEGY ::

MCX GOLD APRIL ::

The trend has turned down.
Sell only on a fall below Rs 15210 with a stop loss at Rs 15660.
Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above Rs 15705 and when it falls below Rs 15705 then sell with the high above Rs 15705 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Support is seen at Rs 15262 – Rs 15014.

MCX SILVER MARCH ::

The trend is up.
Buy only on a rise above Rs 23025 or sell below Rs 22080 whichever is earlier.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 22220 and when it rises above Rs 22220 then buy with the low below Rs 22220 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23163 – Rs 23565

VIEWS FOR 25TH FEB. 2009

MCX Gold April: Corrective rallies to 15570/15600 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 15235 followed by 15075, break above 15873 would negate this bearish view. S1: 15357 S2: 14885 R1: 15625 R2: 16000

MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565

MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010

MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0

MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210

MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523

Comex Gold April: - Corrective rallies to 976/978 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 955 followed by 945, break above 995 would negate this bearish view.

Comex Silver March: - Corrective rallies to 14.02/14.10 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 13.40/13.45, break above 14.35 would negate this bearish view.

NYMEX Crude April: - Dips to 39.35 followed by 38.50 could find support for a move higher towards 42.5/43, break below 37.60 would negate this bullish view.

VIEWS FOR 25TH FEB. 2009

MCX Gold April: Corrective rallies to 15570/15600 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 15235 followed by 15075, break above 15873 would negate this bearish view. S1: 15357 S2: 14885 R1: 15625 R2: 16000

MCX Silver Mar: Corrective rallies to 22779/22902 could find resistance for a fall lower towards 21771/21852, break above 23314 would negate this bearish view.S1: 22507 S2: 21753 R1: 23000 R2: 23565

MCX Crude Oil March : Dips to 1955 followed by 1913 could find support for a move higher towards 2112/2137,break below 1868 would negate this bullish view.S1: 1920 S2: 1861 R1: 1958 R2: 2010

MCX Zinc Feb: - Dips to 54.15/53.95 could find support for a move higher towards 55/55.25, break below 53.95 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.65 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0

MCX Lead Feb: Prices closed at strong support level 49.75. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 49.57 S2: 48.6 R1: 50.45 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 492 may take prices to 505 level.However a break of supports at 472 may take prices to 468 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 482 S2: 468 R1: 491 R2: 505

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210

MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Break above 517 could see prices edging higher towards 521/523, move below 510 would negate this bullish view.S1:513 S2:509 R1:518 R2:523

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 24th FEB. 2009

VIEWS ::
MCX Gold April: A consolidation is in progress now. Immediate support is at 15570/15586 levels and a break below should target 15250. Favored view expects 15586/15602 to hold for a break above 15937/15953 and go for 16496.S1: 15845 S2: 15625 R1: 15930 R2: 16040

MCX Silver Mar: A hugely volatile day with support at 22932. Fall below 22915 and a subsequent fall below 22750 to open the way for a correction towards 21450 at least. However, as long as 22932 holds prices could aim for 22992.S1: 23402 S2: 22788 R1: 23847 R2: 24410

MCX Copper February: The big picture price structure looks clearly weak. Fall below 155.3 to drag prices lower towards 150 initially or even lower towards 137.6 levels. S1: 157 S2: 153 R1: 160 R2: 166

MCX Crude Oil March : A bear flag indicates weakness. Break below 1885 to take prices lower towards 1788 or even lower. Any rallies to 1974 or even higher towards 2009 to resist for a down move. S1: 1946 S2: 1898 R1: 1983 R2: 2010

MCX Zinc Feb: - Strong support at 53.90 is seen. Breaching of 53.90 level can take price to 53.05 level.Rallies if any will find resistance at 54.6 and further at 55.0 level. S1: 53.95 S2: 53.35 R1: 54.6 R2: 55.0

MCX Lead Feb: Strong support is seen at 49.80 level. As long as this level holds prices may move up and find resistance at 50.7/51.7 levels.S1: 50.0 S2: 49.3 R1: 50.7 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 485 may take prices to 497 level.However a break of supports at 468 may take prices to 457 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 468 S2: 457 R1: 486 R2: 497

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices may move below 196 level and find support around 190. Move beyond 204 can only negate this bearish view.S1: 196 S2: 190 R1: 204 R2: 210

TRADING STRATEGY ::
MCX SILVER ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 22530.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 23685.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 23383 and when it rises above Rs 23383 then buy with the low below Rs 23383 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23700 – Rs 24198.

MCX GOLD ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 15550.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 15930.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 15796 and when it rises above Rs 15796 then buy with the low below Rs 15796 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 16021 – Rs 16155.

COMEX SILVER ::
The channeled rise continues.
Support will be at 14.09$-13.85$.
A fall and close below 13.85$ can bring about a slide down for a correction.
Use rise to take profit at current price or on rise to resistance 14.67$-14.92$ as the opportunity arises.

COMEX GOLD ::
Gold likely to face resistance now at higher range therefore, it can move sideways or exhibit a minor correction.
Support range will be at 975$-970$.
Resistance range will be at 992$-1006$.
Use rise to take profit as the opportunity arises

weekly views of gold silver as on 23 rd feb

GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1007.7 last week and remains firm. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 969.5 support holds, targeting 1033.9 high. On the downside, below 969.5 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But pullback should be contained by 892 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, consolidation from 1033.9 has already completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle pattern. Long term up trend is tentatively treated as resumed at this point and further rise should be seen to retest 1033.9 high. Break will confirm the bullish case and target 161.8% projection of 681 to 892 from 801.5 at 1142.9 next. On the downside, break of 892 support is needed to be the first signal that rise fro 681 has topped out. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of pull back.
In the long term picture, as mentioned before, Gold's long term up trend from 260 is still in progress. Break of 1033.9 will confirm that such up trend has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159 next.
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICALS:-
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally extended further to as high as 14.58 last week. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 13.85 support holds. Further rise should be seen to next target of 16.00 medium term support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 13.85 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 11.77 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975) indicates that whole down trend from 21.44 has completed at 8.4. Focus now turns to next resistance at 16, with medium term falling trend line at 16.12 and 61.8% retracement of 21.44 to 8.4 at 16.45. Sustained break will argue that long term up trend is resuming and should target 21.44 high next. On the downside, break of 11.77 support is needed to be the first signal that rise from 8.4 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315 and should have completed at 8.4 after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36. On resumption, the long term up trend should target 100% projection of 4.315 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 25.52 next.
CRUDE WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery from 33.55 is still in progress and extended to as high as 40.13 last week. Such recovery should still be in progress as long as 34.16 minor support holds and further rally could be seen towards upper end of recent range near to 50.47 resistance. But after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as this resistance holds. Below 34.16 will argue that recent down trend is resuming for 30 psychological support next.
In the bigger picture, note that downside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bullish convergence in daily MACD. Weekly MACD has also crossed above signal line already. Also, crude oil has just drawn some support from another key long term support zone of 17.12/33.5. Hence we'll continue to look for reversal signal. Nevertheless, whole fall from 147.27 is still treated as in progress as long as 50.47 resistance holds. The current fall might still extend further to long term trend line support (monthly semi-log chart) at 27 level or lower.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound towards 90.51 resistance level. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS WEEKLY OUTLOOK:-Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas dived through 4.0 psychological support last week and reached as low as 3.921 before recovering mildly. Such decline should still be in progress as long as 4.28 minor resistance holds, towards 61.8% projection of 6.24 to 4.28 from 4.88 at 3.67. On the upside, above 4.28 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 4.88 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, Natural Gas' down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 4.0 will pave the way to next key psychological support at 3.0. Also, such decline is treated as part of the sideway pattern from 15.56 and could be heading to 100% projection of 15.65 to 4.3 from 13.69 at 2.34. On the upside, 4.88 resistance will be the first signal that such down trend is bottoming and bring stronger rebound to retest 6.24 resistance

VIEWS FOR 20 TH FEB

MCX Gold April: Immediate support is at 15347/15378 followed by 15236. Favored view expects these supports to hold for a rally towards 15695 or even higher. However, unexpected fall below 15236 to drag prices lower towards 14935 or even lower.S1: 15370 S2: 15173 R1: 15630 R2: 15832
MCX Silver Mar: fall below 22672 has opened the way for a corrective declines towards 21535 or even lower. Resistances are at 23000/23030 followed by 23078/23110. This is our favored view. Direct rise above 23322 to detour bearish expectation.S1: 22568 S2: 22180 R1: 23015 R2: 23402
MCX Copper February: Possible to see a corrective pullback towards 165.6 levels for the day or even higher towards 167.8. But the trend still remains weak. Only a direct rise above 173 to restore bullish hopes. S1: 157 S2: 153 R1: 160 R2: 166
MCX Crude Oil March : Moved as per expectations. Supports are at 1970 followed by 1920.We can expect a rally towards 2202/2225 as long as the supports hold.S1: 1957 S2: 1898 R1: 2010 R2: 2085
MCX Zinc Feb: - Up rally beyond 55.25 may take prices to 56.00 level. Move below 54.9 will negate this bullish view.S1: 55.0 S2: 54.55 R1: 55.45 R2: 56.00

MCX Lead Feb: Strong support is seen at 53 level. Breakdown from this level will continue price fall to at least 52.25 level. Moves beyond 54.0 can raise doubts about this bearish view. S1: 53.0 S2: 51.95 R1: 54.0 R2: 55.0
MCX Nickel Feb: Up rally beyond 495 may take prices to 505 level . However a break of supports at 490 may take prices to 484 level and negate our bullish view.S1: 490 S2: 484 R1: 495 R2: 505
MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - While below 510/511 prices could stay under pressure and move lower to test support at 502.A break of 502 could see further weakness towards 494 levels. However a rise above 511 could see prices correct towards resistance at 520 levels. S1:502 S2:497 R1:507.5 R2:511
(In $): Comex Gold April: - Immediate support is at 968/70 followed by 961. Favored view expects these supports to hold for a rally towards 990 or even higher. However, unexpected fall below 961 to drag prices lower towards 942 or even lower

(In $):NYMEX Crude April: - Moved as per expectations. Supports are at 38.95 followed by 37.93. We can expect a rally towards 43.50/95 as long as the supports hold.

(In $):Comex Silver March: - fall below 13.98 has opened the way for a corrective declines towards 13.25 or even lower. Resistances are at 14.15/17 followed by 14.20/22. This is our favored view. Direct rise above 14.35 to detour bearish expectation.

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 18th FEBRUARY 2009

MCX Gold April: Moving in line with our expectations. It has tested the important resistance at 15578. Supports are at 15340 followed by 15227 now.Ideally, a test of 15818 or even higher towards 16265 can be seen as long as supports hold. S1: 15362 S2: 15158 R1: 15563 R2: 15832

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 22460 followed by 22233 now. A test of 23660/23740 looks likely as long as supports hold. Fall below 21860 to dent our bullish view. S1: 22500 S2: 22182 R1: 23000 R2: 23450

MCX Copper February: Resistance is at 161.8/163. However, as long as 164/166.3 resists any upside attempts, we favor a fall towards 151 or even lower. S1: 157 S2: 153 R1: 162 R2: 166

MCX Crude Oil March : A bullish correction can be seen on a rise above 1940 for a possible test of 1995/1997 initially. There is a possibility for an extension towards 2055 too. Fall below 1903 to neutralize our bullish expectations.S1: 1945 S2: 1880 R1: 2029 R2: 2085

MCX Zinc Feb: - Prices may move down and test support at 54.25 level which if breached can take prices to 53.75 level. Rallies if any are suppose to get resistance at 55.25 .S1: 54.25 S2: 53.7 R1: 55.25 R2: 55.7

MCX Nickel Feb: Free fall of Nickel may get support at 490-500 levels. Rallies if any likely to capped below 515 for move towards 470 level.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 515 R2: 530

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Reversal in price may be seen if prices cross 215 level finding resistance at 221. S1: 209 S2: 204 R1: 215 R2: 221

MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Supports are at 502 levels now. Rallies could find resistance at 510/512 levels for a move lower to test the supports.However a rise above 512 could see prices correct further towards resistance at 519 levels. S1:502 S2:497 R1:511 R2:516

TRADING STRATEGY ::

SILVER MCX MARCH ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 21495.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 22990.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 22423 and when it rises above Rs 22423 then buy with the low below Rs 22423 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 23351 – Rs 23817.

GOLD MCX APRIL ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14735.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 15565.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 15264 and when it rises above Rs 15264 then buy with the low below Rs 15264 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 15790 – Rs 16089

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

A trend line taken from the high was plotted yesterday and shown on the chart as well. A breakout of the same was witnessed yesterday.
The rise yesterday was a large one therefore we could find dip during the day towards the intra-day support levels before making any further attempts to cross the yesterday high of 974.2$.
Support will be at 961$-948$-926$. Resistance will be at 975$. On rise above 975$, expect a further rise towards 982$ and 995$.
In spite of the rise yesterday, corrective dip should be used for buying.
On the hourly chart, we had shown a breakout yesterday and the target of 969$ was attained. On the chart, we have shown the retracement level of the last corresponding rise from 939$ to 974$. The retracement levels are placed at 961$-956$-952$.
Traders can trade long again on rise above 975$ and take profit at current price to 975$ as the opportunity arises.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A Channeled rise continues. Corrective dip to support of 13.95$-13.68$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 13.53$. Book profits on rise towards 14.37$-14.64$ as the opportunity arises on older buy positions.

The hourly chart suggest that we could see some profit booking which could bring the price to test the support level before making any further attempts to move higher.
Traders can trade long again on rise above 14.23$.

VIEWS FOR 17th FEBRUARY 2009

MCX Gold April: As expected the 14497-14543 zone seems to have held well. A rally to 15088 or 15182 looks likely. Supports are at 14636 followed by 14574. S1: 14580 S2: 14450 R1: 14797 R2: 15100

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 21317 followed by 21238. Ideally supports to hold for a rally towards 22060. Fall below 21000/21032 to cause doubts on our bullish view. S1: 21300 S2: 21176 R1: 21480 R2: 21630

MCX Copper February: As expected break below 160.2 is a bearish sign. Prices could edge lower towards 147/148 levels now. Rallies to 163.4/164.5 to cap for a decline towards above-mentioned levels. S1: 160 S2: 157 R1: 165 R2: 169

MCX Crude Oil March(corrected) : Favoured view expects that resistance at 2110/2154 could cap for a fall towards 1962. Rise above 2165 is needed to think about a stronger recovery.S1: 2017 S2: 1841 R1: 2082 R2: 2133

MCX Zinc Feb: - Rallies to level 55.1 is expected where it may find resistance. Support is seen at 54.3 level which breached can take prices to 53.9. S1: 54.3 S2: 53.7 R1: 55.25 R2: 55.7

MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 56.15-55.65 on the downside. However a break above 56.71 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 57.40 levels. S1: 55.34 S2: 54.50 R1: 56.71 R2: 57.40

MCX Nickel Feb: Free fall of Nickel may get support at 490-500 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 515 for move towards 470 level..S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 515 R2: 530

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices are likely to stay weak and find strong support at 209 levels.Rally beyond 216 may negate this bearish view. S1: 209 S2: 204 R1: 212 R2: 219

MCX Mentha Oil Feb: - Price have found strong support at 515. However a rise above 523 could see a move higher towards next resistance at 528 .S1:512 S2:507.50 R1:521 R2:528

TRADING STRATERGY ::
MCX GOLD APRIL ::
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14730.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 and when it rises above Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 then buy with the low below Rs 14672 or Rs 14615 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14763 – Rs 14820.

MCX SILVER MARCH ::

The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20900.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21575.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 and when it rises above Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 then buy with the low below Rs 21400 or Rs 21249 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21578 – Rs 21729

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::
The trend is up as per the daily chart for last few days. The trading higher bottom is placed at 931$. The earlier breakout point was also at 931$. So, the earlier breakout has offered support in last couple of trading session by forming a lower shadow.
Resistance will be at 952$.
On further rise and close above 952$, Gold can move up to test the trend line taken from the two highs as shown in the chart.
The hourly chart suggest that trading breakout has been witnessed in the early morning trades. Gold is expected to test the high registered in last couple of trading days back of 952$.
In case of further breakout and close above 952$ as per the hourly chart shown below, Gold can move towards 1.27 retracement level of 969$.
Traders holding long positions can a tight stop loss of 939$ as per hourly chart. Overall low of 931$ will prove to be an important support point. Depending on the individual traders risk bearing capacity can maintain 939$ or 931$ as stop loss for any long positions held as of now or created now.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::
As we have been indicate a channeled up move for last few days, the same continues to be in existence.
The channel has not yet been violated and price up move continues to be within the channel.
Resistance will be at 13.80$.
Expect continuation of the up move on rise and close above 13.80$.
An attempt to move towards the upper channel line could be made. The momentum right now is a steady accent. A sharp breakout with a spike can take it towards the upper channel line.
Traders holding long positions can maintain overall stop loss of 13.23$. A fall and close below 13.23$ can violate the channel.

On the hourly chart, we can see a breakout which can carry price up towards 14.03$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 14.39.
As per hourly chart, traders can maintain a stop loss of 13.48$ for any trading long positions held.

VIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM 16TH FEB TO 21 FEB 2009

MCX Gold April: A corrective dip to 14513 or even lower towards 14404 to occur before the rally resumes towards 15121 levels. Fall below 14388 to cause doubts about this view. S1: 14610 S2: 14580 R1: 14675 R2: 14715

MCX Silver Mar: Important support at 21273 followed by 21051 now. Rally is expected to resume higher towards 22932/23002 levels. Direct fall below 20718 to dash our bullish hopes. S1: 21200 S2: 21050 R1: 21450 R2: 21570

MCX Copper February: Important support is at 159.8 now below, which could open the way for, 148 or even lower. Only a direct rise above 177 to re-in force bullish hopes.
S1: 165 S2: 161 R1: 170 R2: 174

MCX Crude Oil March : Favoured view expects that resistance at 2369/2420 could cap for a fall towards 2203. Rise above 2430 is needed to think about a stronger recovery.
S1: 2064 S2: 2024 R1: 2125 R2: 2149

MCX Zinc Feb: - Weakness in the price may persist until level 56.5 is crossed. Support is seen at 55 level which breached can take prices to 55.0. S1: 55.0 S2: 54.6 R1: 55.91 R2: 56.5

MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 56.15-55.65 on the downside. However a break above 56.71 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 57.40 levels. S1: 55.34 S2: 54.50 R1: 56.71 R2: 57.40

MCX Nickel Feb: Free fall of Nickel may get support at 490-500 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 515 for move towards 470 level..S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 515 R2: 530

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Prices are likely to stay weak and find strong support at 216-210 levels.Rally beyond 236 may negate this bearish view. S1: 216 S2: 208 R1: 228 R2: 233

VIEWS FOR 13 TH FEB 2009

MCX Gold April: Supports are still centered around 14562-14577 and a fall below this level could drag prices lower towards 14329. However, as long as 14562-14577 holds, we expect a rally towards 15030-15076. S1: 14432 S2: 14119 R1: 14860 R2: 15076

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 20966-20982. Favored view expects supports to hold for a rally towards 22024.However, fall below 20982 and more importantly 20840 to lead into a corrective decline towards 20287 or 20050.S1: 21045 S2: 20715 R1: 21800 R2: 22030

MCX Copper February: Resistances at 168.5/170 presently. Could even stretch towards 171/172 levels.But any sustained bullish rally looks unlikely unless 176.5/177.5 is broken decisively. S1: 164 S2: 160 R1: 168 R2: 172

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Rise above 1684/1685 to result in a corrective pullback towards 1760 or even higher towards 1870. dips to 1653 to find support. Stop will be at 1623. S1: 1680 S2: 1650 R1: 1760 R2: 1870

MCX Zinc Feb: - Inability to cross 56.0 levels on the upside will lead to another session of weakness leading to a fall towards strong supports which lie in the range 55.7 ; 54.75 . However a rise above 56.5 levels could trigger a rally towards 57.7 levels. S1: 55.60 S2: 54.70 R1: 57.15 R2: 58.00

MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 55.7, 54.70 on the downside.However a break above 57.25 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 58.60 levels.
S1: 55.20 S2: 54.50 R1: 57.8 R2: 58.30

MCX Nickel Feb: Nickel seems to be in free fall. Next level of support at 481;471 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 510 for move beyond 470 toward 460 level.S1: 492 S2: 481 R1: 517 R2: 530

GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14825.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 and when it rises above Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 then buy with the low below Rs 14730 or Rs 14635 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14879 – Rs 14974.

SILVER TRADING STRATERGY:-The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20540.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21575.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 21009 and when it rises above Rs 21009 then buy with the low below Rs 21009 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21543 – Rs 21823.

VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY FOR 12th FEBRUARY 2009

MCX Gold April: Dips to 14469-14438 could find support for a rally towards 15060 ; 15044. A break below 14283 could cast doubt about this view that could price to next support at 14174 levels. S1: 14625 S2: 14550 R1: 14785 R2: 14860

MCX Silver Mar: Dips to 20896-20802 likely to find support for a rally towards 21819 followed by 22022. A break below 20443 to negate this bullish view. S1:21000 S2:20750 R1:21325 R2:21600

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Expect corrective rallies towards 1815 followed by 1845 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 1678 followed 1644 . A break above 1879 to turn the picture neutral. S1: 1785 S2: 1745 R1: 1865 R2: 1900

MCX Copper February: Expect corrective rallies towards 170.9 ; 172.0 to find resistance for a fall lower 162.3 followed by 156.8. A break above 176.3 could could see price edging higher towards 183.8-186.3. S1: 163 S2:160 R1: 169 R2:172
MCX Zinc Feb: - Inability to cross 56.5 levels on the upside will lead to another session of weakness leading to a fall towards strong supports which lie in the range 55.2 ; 54.75 . However a rise above 56.5 levels could trigger a rally towards 57.7 levels. S1: 55.60 S2: 54.70 R1: 57.15 R2: 58.00

MCX Lead Feb: Price likely to stay weak for the session and test supports at 55.00 ; 54.70 on the downside. However a break above 57.25 could once again take price towards strong resistance at 58.60 levels. S1: 55.75 S2: 54.50 R1: 57.8 R2: 58.30

MCX Nickel Feb: Nickel seems to be in free fall. Next level of support at 481;471 level. Rallies if any likely to capped below 510 for move beyond 470 toward 460 level.S1: 495 S2: 478 R1: 523 R2: 542

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Rallies to 226- 228 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 214 ;210 levels Only a rise above 233 to negate this bearish view. S1: 221 S2: 217 R1: 228 R2: 233

Comex Gold April: - Dips to 931- 929 could find support for a rally towards 969 - 968. A break below 919 could cast doubt about this view that could take price to next support at 912 levels.

Comex Silver March: - Dips to 13.36-13.30 likely to find support for a rally towards 13.95 followed by 14.08. A break below 13.07 to negate this bullish view

NYMEX Crude March: - Expect corrective rallies towards 37.20 followed by 37.80 to find resistance for a fall lower towards 34.40 followed 33.70. A break above 38.50 to turn the picture neutral

GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 14235.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14725.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 and when it rises above Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 then buy with the low below Rs 14550 or Rs 14375 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14864 – Rs 15039

SILVER TRADING STRATERGY :-
The trend is up.
Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 20540.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 21255.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 and when it rises above Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 then buy with the low below Rs 20995 or Rs 20736 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now above the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding.
Resistance is seen at Rs 21446 – Rs 21705

GOLD WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:-Comex Gold (GC)
Gold faced tough resistance as it approached 936.3 key resistance and turned sideway. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing but after all, further rally is still in favor as long as 874.2 support holds. As discussed before, sustained break of 936.30 will be taken as an important indication that medium term rise is resuming and should bring strong rally to 989.6 resistance next. On the downside, failure at the current level, followed by break of 874.2 will be the first indication that Gold has already topped out and focus will turn back to 801.5 support in this case.
In the bigger picture, we're still holding on the bullish scenario. That is, consolidation from 1033.9 might have completed at 681 already, after completing an expanding triangle pattern. Break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. On the downside, though, below 801.5 support will shift favors back to the case that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will have another test of 681 low before completion.
In the long term picture, the corrective structure of price actions from 1033.9 so far is consistent with the view that it's merely consolidation in the larger up trend. With Gold still trading well above 55 months EMA (now at 687.82) as well as trend line support (semi-log chart) at 632.88, it's believed that such long term up trend is still in progress. On resumption Gold should target 1100 psychological resistance next and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159. On the downside, however, sustained trading below the mentioned support levels will argue that the long term up trend has completed at 1033.9 and much deeper fall should then be seen
SILVER WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-Comex Silver (SI)
Silver rally extended further to 13.18 last week and is still in progress. From a short term angle, further rise is still expected as long as 12.135 support holds. Current choppy rise from 8.4 could extend further towards 13.88 key medium term resistance but strong resistance should be seen there. On the downside, below 12.135 will be the first alert that silver has topped out. Further break of 10.32 support will turn short term outlook bearish again.
In the bigger picture, the choppy price actions from 8.4 so far look corrective in nature. In other words, while choppy recovery from 8.4 is extending, whole down trend from 21.44 is going to resume sooner or later. Having said that, upside is expected to be limited by 13.88 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 19.55 to 8.4 at 13.975). On the other hand, a break below 10.32 support will be taken as an early alert that the down trend is resuming for at least a new low below 8.4. Firm break of 13.88 is needed to invalidate this bearish case.
In the longer term picture, Silver's fall from 21.44 is treated as part of consolidation to the long term five wave rally from 4.315. A medium term bottom might be in place after contained slightly above 76.4% retracement of 4.315 to 21.44 at 8.36 but there is no confirmation yet. Nevertheless, based on the time spent so far, we don't think the consolidation/correction has completed yet and some more range trading could be seen below 21.44 before finally breaking to new high.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil had an extremely choppy week as it continued to struggle around 40 level but stubbornly refused to let it go. But after all, with 43.60 minor resistance intact, bias remains on the downside for at test of 34.98 low next. Also, while above 43.6 will bring some stronger recovery, short term outlook is still bearish for down trend resumption. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, decisive break of 50.47 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rebound.
In the bigger picture, at this moment, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend yet. However, note that weekly MACD has crossed above signal line already, which serves an early alert that whole decline from 147.27 might be near to completion. Hence, downside potential might be limited even if such fall is going to extend. On the upside, above 50.47, which should then have crude oil sustained above medium term falling trend line, will indicate that whole down trend from 147.27 has completed. Stronger rebound should then be seen with prospect of rising to key medium term support turned resistance of 90.51.
In the longer term picture, the depth of the fall from 147.27 and touching of 33.5 resistance turned support suggest that whole up trend from 14.21 has completed. While such decline might extend further, it's still being treated as a correction in the larger up trend only and should be contained by 17.12/33.5 support zone and bring strong rebound. Focus will remain on reversal signal.
NATURAL GAS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Late Friday's rally and break of 4.728 resistance affirms the case that a bottom is formed at 4.28, after drawing support from key long term support at 4.3, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. . Short term bias is flipped back to the upside for 5.477 resistance first. Though, a break back below 4.522 minor support will dampen the immediate bullish case and put focus back to 4.28 low.
In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, we're expecting a medium bottom at around 4.3 key long term support and the development so far is consistent with this view. Further break of 5.477 resistance will 6.24 resistance will confirm that a medium term is finally formed and bring strong, sustained rally towards key cluster resistance at 8.88 (50% retracement of 13.69 to 4.28 at 8.98).
In the longer term picture, note that fall from 13.69 is treated as part of long term consolidation that started at 15.65. Break decisive break of 8.88 will confirm that whole fall from 13.69 has completed and should target upper side of the long term range between 13.69 and 15.65 next. However, note that firm break of 4.3 will invalidate this view and target 4.00 psychological support next.

We are now not providing any view on this blog as this Free Service now turns to PAID SERVICE w.e.f 01.02.2009 upto further notice.

THOSE WHO WANT OUR VIEWS WITH TRADING STRATEGY CAN KINDLY CONTACT US.

Yahoo Id : akshit_riya@yahoo.co.in
Cell : +91-9820555212
MUNNABHAI ANALYST

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 30th JANUARY 2009

TRADING STRATEGY :-
MCX GOLD :
The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 13750. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14175. Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14024 and when it rises above Rs 14024 then buy with the low below Rs 14024 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding. Resistance is seen at Rs 14294 – Rs 14443.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 13788

MCX SILVER :
The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 18915.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 19600. Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 19334 and when it rises above Rs 19334 then buy with the low below Rs 19334 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 19754 – Rs 20000.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 18981

VIEWS FOR THE DAY :
MCX Gold April: Supports around 14065/13986 could hold for next rally towards 14393/14456.It has to fall below 13986 to weaken the structure, leading to some change in this view.S1: 14025 S2: 13950 R1: 14175 R2: 14230

MCX Silver Mar: Crucial near-term support at 19467 , 19307. Fall below could lead prices towards 18906/18794 from where prices can find support again for a rally higher towards 20462.S1:19300 S2:18950 R1:19700 R2:20000

MCX Copper February: Rallies to 160 : 161.45 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 148.45 : 145.20 levels.A rise above 163.6 could delay this fall.S1: 156 S2:153 R1: 162 R2:167

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Structure is bearish for a fall towards 1915 or more ideally towards 1881 from where it could strongly bounce back towards 2142.Resistance points are seen at 2044/2069 followed by 2122. Rise above 2122 is needed to cause confusion.S1: 2000 S2: 1945 R1: 2085 R2: 2135

MCX Lead Feb: Expect rallies to 57.25 : 57.65 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 54.50 levels.Only a rise above 56.45 to negate this bearish view.S1: 53.85 S2: 52.7 R1: 55.5 R2: 56.15

MCX Nickel Feb: Expect rallies to 570 : 574 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 541 levels.Only a rise above 584 to negate this bearish view.S1: 545 S2: 527 R1: 562 R2: 585

MCX Zinc Feb: - Rallies to 55.75 : 56.20 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.40 levels.

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - A break of the range 214 :225 will decide the nest directive move. S1: 214 S2: 209 R1: 222 R2: 228

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 29th JANUARY 2009

TRADING STRATEGY :-

MCX GOLD :

The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 13475. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14090.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 and when it rises above Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 then buy with the low below Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark. Open interest witnessed significant fall with the fall in price indicating long positions unwinding.

Resistance is seen at Rs 14033 – Rs 14172.

PIVOTS :
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 13690


MCX SILVER :

The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 18850. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 19600.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 19105 and when it rises above Rs 19105 then buy with the low below Rs 19105 as the stop loss. Resistance is seen at Rs 19462 – Rs 19653.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 18864

COMEX PIVOT LEVELS
SUP-1 878.70 SUP-2 870 PIVOT- 891 RES-1 899.50 RES-2 912

VIEWS  FOR  THE  DAY

MCX Gold Feb: Ideally, 13821 should hold support, failing which we could see a further dip towards 13680 levels now.Favored view still expects supports to hold for a rise towards 14730 levels as long as supports hold.S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Crucial near-term support at 18964/18996. Fall below could lead prices towards 18369/18402 from where prices can find support again for a rally higher towards 20009.
S1:19000 S2:18750 R1:19500 R2:19785

MCX Copper February: Fall below 155 to lead prices lower towards 148 and 140.Only a daily close above 175 to re-inforce bullish expectations again.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2 : 171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : A decline could be seen, targeting 1929. Fall below 1917 might see it attempting 1895.Ideally a strong recovery towards 2132/2157 should begin after this decline.
S1: 2000 S2: 1945 R1: 2110 R2: 2165

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 55.85 , 56.35 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.0 levels.Only a rise above 56.7 to negate this bearish view.S1: 54.0 S2: 53.0 R1: 56.5 R2: 57.15

MCX Lead Jan: Expect rallies to 57.65 : 57.90 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.50 levels.Only a rise above 58.25 to negate this bearish view.S1: 55.00 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect rallies to 578 : 585 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 552 levels.Only a rise above 589 to negate this bearish view.S1: 565 S2: 542 R1: 587 R2: 605.

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - A break of the range 214 :225 will decide the nest directive move. S1: 214 S2: 209 R1: 222 R2: 228

VIEWS FOR 28th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Supports at 13944 and 13898 to hold dips for a rally higher towards 14695 levels initially.Direct fall below 13835 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Supports at 18950/19035 to hold for a target of 19933/19998 levels. Dip below 18873 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1:19200 S2:18950 R1:19700 R2:19985

MCX Copper February: Any rallies being sold into giving a possible feel of a the rallies to be unsustainable. Fall below 155 to lead prices lower towards 148 and 140. Only a daily close above 175 to re-inforce bullish expectations again.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2:171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Break below 2144 has lost the bullish chance and caused a decline. Up ticks could now be resisted near 2093 or 2137/2142 for next decline towards 1934/1920. It needs to cross above 2165 to hint at strength. Next resistance levels are near 2205. S1: 2095 S2: 2040 R1: 2185 R2: 2225

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect price to find support at 54.35 54.05 for a rise towards 58.0 levels. Only a move below 53.25 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 54.0 S2: 53.0 R1: 56.5 R2: 57.15

MCX Lead Jan: Expect price to find support at 55.45 55.05 for a rise towards 59.45 levels. Only a move below 54.65 to raise doubts about this bullish view.S1: 55.00 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30
 
MCX Nickel Jan: Expect price to find support at 550 544 for a rise towards 585 levels. Only a move below 533 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 541 S2: 523 R1: 575 R2: 594

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Expect price to find support at 216 213 for a rise towards 229 levels.Only a move below 210 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 225 R2: 239

FOREX EURO TECHNICAL VIEW: Just as we expected, the pair was able to reach its target at 1.3140 before rebounding back to the upside to breach the key resistance for the downside channel and close above it. We expect to see high volatility around the pivot resistance at 1.3330 where there is a possibility to form a positive technical pattern if the above mentioned level is breached with targets at 1.3740 and 1.3825. However, on the intraday basis, there is a chance to see slight downside movements to retest the key support between 1.3140 and 1.3180.

TRADING IDEA :: Buy the pair above 1.3205 with targets at 1.3325 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3105

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A clear failure to breach the key resistance for the medium term decending channel we have pointed out to yesterday as crude returned to close below the level. The resistacne level for today has shifted to 47.00 - 47.40 followed by a major resistance at 48.50 and as far as trading remains below these levels, crude will continued to fall, Today we expect high volatility as seen on momentum indicators as they show crude being in an oversold area on the hourly charts whereas direction indicators are pointing to the downside. Support levle are found at 40.60 and 40.20 which makes us expect sideways movements between the 47.40 and 40.60 levels

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:As we expected in our previous reports gold doesn't have enough momentum to move to the upside as most of the indicators still support the downside outlook in addition to the bearish candlesticks pattern which confirms our previous expected scenarios. Any break out that occurs below 889.00 as shown on the chart will help the downside correction wave to accelerate towards 879.00 followed by 870.00 (The 1st cluster support) that gold will face before deciding to resume a further expected decline only sustained below 888 we may expect fall

USDINR (48.90) : With RBI making no change in the Credit Policy, expect USD-INR to fall further to 48. in coming days if 49.30 undisturbed
Support: 48.40/48.00/47.75.
Resistance: 49.30/49.90/50.15

VIEWS FOR 27th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Ideally, dips to 14025/14057 to find support and rise higher towards 14732/14763 levels.However, unexpected fall below 13947 to lead into a corrective rally towards 13711 levels.
S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 19214 followed by 18972 for a target of 20118/20166 .Unexpected fall below 18956 to lead to a corrective fall towards 18149 levels.S1:19000 S2:18750 R1:19500 R2:19785

MCX Copper February: Supports are at 166.1 followed by 161.85. Ideally, a test of 189 looks likely as long as the support level holds.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2:171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : The structure is bullish and favors a rise towards 2455 or 2490. Supports near 2251, 2219 or maximum 2201 could hold corrective dips.Dip below 2182 would caution about the possibility of a stronger decline towards 2117.S1: 2155 S2: 2100 R1: 2255 R2: 2300

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect price to find support at 57.65 , 57.05 for a rise towards 60.0 levels.Only a move below 55.25 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 56.0 S2: 55.0 R1: 57.5 R2: 58.45

MCX Lead Jan: Expect price to find support at 55.65 , 55.05 for a rise towards 59.45 levels.Only a move below 54.65 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 53.00 S2: 52.00 R1: 55.25 R2: 56.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect price to find support at 571, 567 for a rise towards 605 levels.Only a move below 559 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 565 S2: 543 R1: 587 R2: 610

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Expect price to find support at 217 , 215 for a rise towards 239 levels.Only a move below 210 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 236 R2: 247

VIEWS FOR 23rd JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb:The 13276-13291 zone to support any dips presently. Ideally, a broad range needs to be established before a breakout higher towards 14191 levels Unexpected fall below 13260 to have bearish implications.S1: 13475 S2: 13400 R1: 13610 R2: 13695

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 18231 followed by 18068. Direct fall below 18035/18067 to result in a corrective decline towards 17740/17743 levels.Favored view expects supports at 18035/18067 to hold and rise towards potential target at 19294.S1:18300 S2:18120 R1:18750 R2:18900

MCX Copper February: Fall below 155 denotes bearishness now. We could see a pullback towards 159/160 levels now, but rallies should be capped here for a decline towards 148.2. Unexpected rise above 163.6 to re-inforce bullish hopes.S1: 149 S2:145 R1: 157 R2:161

MCX Crude Oil Feb : As expected we saw a test of 2210 levels. The subsequent fall from there has bearish implications. Supports are at around 2062/2067 levels now. Break below yesterday's low could take prices even lower towards 1830 levels.S1: 2000 S2: 1965 R1: 2100 R2: 2195

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 55.35 ,55.85 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 52.30 ,51.00 levels again. Only a rise above 56.5 to negate this bearish view. S1: 53.3 S2: 52.15 R1: 55.35 R2: 56.45

MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 53.55 , 53.65 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 49.5 or even lower towards 48.00 levels. A rise above 54.75 to negate this bearish view. S1: 51.00 S2: 50.00 R1: 53.25 R2: 54.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Rallies to 545.00, 548.00 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 516 or even lower towards 495 levels. A rise above 565 to negate this bearish view. S1: 525 S2: 507 R1: 559 R2: 573

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Rallies to 233.0 , 235 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 215 levels. A rise above 237.0 to negate this bearish view.S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 236 R2: 247

COMEX GOLD PIVOT; SUP-1 845 SUP-2 835 PIVOT - 854 RES-1 865 RES-2 873 EXPECTATION POSITIVE PROFIT BOOKING AT HIGHER LEVELS IS GOOD

CRUDE SUPPORT AT 38-40 RES SEEN AT 45 TRADING STRATERGY BUY ON DIPS WITH SL 38 ABV 45 EXPECT A TEST OF 50 IN NEAR TERM BUY NEAR SUPPORT

VIEWS FOR 22nd JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: The 13297 - 13313 zone to support any dips presently. Ideally, a broad range needs to be established before a breakout higher towards 14213 levels. Unexpected fall below 13281 to have bearish implications.S1: 13400 S2: 13335 R1: 13535 R2: 13600

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 18361 followed by 18196. Direct fall below 18163/18196 to result in a corrective decline towards 17867/17900 levels.Favored view expects supports at 18163/18196 to hold and rise towards potential target at 19431. S1:18300 S2:18120 R1:18750 R2:18900

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Rise above 2185 to go for 2291 levels now or even higher towards 2382. Supports are at 2130 followed by 2085. Fall below 2078 to dent our bullish view. S1: 2065 S2: 2035 R1: 2165 R2: 2285

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 57.35 ,58.35 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 54.30 ,53.00 levels again. Only a rise above 59.0 to negate this bearish view. S1: 55.0 S2: 54.0 R1: 56.35 R2: 57.45

MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 55.00 , 55.45 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 50.5 or even lower towards 49.00 levels.A rise above 55.75 to negate this bearish view. S1: 53.00 S2: 52.0 R1: 54.25 R2: 55.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Rallies to 545.00 ,548.00 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 516 or even lower towards 495 levels. A rise above 565 to negate this bearish view.S1:517 S2:500 R1:548 R2:561

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Supports at 232 , 230 likely to hold dips for a move higher towards 243.0 levels. A move below 226 to negate this bullish view.S1: 227 S2: 223 R1: 241 R2: 247

MCX COPPER TREND NOT CLEAR BUT SUP AND RES ARE AS FOLLOWS:S1: 154 S2:150 R1: 162 R2:166

COMEX COPPER PIVOTS LEVELS: SUP-1 143.75 SUP-2 140 RES-1 154 RES -2 160.50 PIVOT 150.25 CMP 145.70 EXPECTATION SIDEWAYS AND MAY TEST SUPPORTS

COMEX GOLD PIVOTS: SUPPORT-1 843 SUPPORT-2 833 RES-1 864 RES-2 874 PIVOT - 854 CMP 852.50 EXPECTATION CORRECTIVE DIP TILL SUPPORT

FOREX EURO TECHNICALS:The pair returned to reach the 1.2840 level once again as it corrected to the upside between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels where there is a possibility to see a technical pattern to the upside with a neckline at 1.3020 with targets of breaching this level are at 1.3160 and 1.3200. A major resistance and pivot point for the pair is found at 1.3085 which was tested once yesterday where if successfully breached, the pair will target the key resistance for the upside channel at 1.3380

TRADING STRATERGY:Buy the pair above 1.3020 with targets at 1.3160 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2970

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW:Gold is still moving in a tight range below the 61.8% at 852.00 levels as shown on the chart after failure to reach the extension target of the retrace from the lower line of the channel at 868.00 levels represented by the 76.4% Fibonacci. Most of the indicators show that the volume is too low without a clear signal up or down so they are neutral which means that the price explosion is on the way to relief the indicators. We expect that the price will move to the downside in particular if it broke the area between 845.00 and 842.00 then it will be a sign that the short term top is placed

VIEWS FOR 21st JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Our anticipated upside targets were tested. Either a consolidation or a corrective pullback towards 1322713259 levels look likely. Ideally supports should hold and take out the important resistance at 13635/13651 now. S1: 13420 S2: 13350 R1: 13575 R2: 13670

MCX Silver Mar: After a test of 18050 we saw silver futures rising higher again and finding resistance at the trend line at 18623/18705.Ideally 18052/18133 to hold for a test of 18983 Unexpected fall below 17806 to dent our bullish view. S1:18150 S2:17950 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Still in a broad range btw 156 to 176. Break either side to determine direction.Favored view expects a break higher. S1: 160 S2:156 R1: 168 R2:172

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Resistances are at 2066 followed by 2122 now. Ideally, resistances to cap for a decline towards 1856.Rise above 2137 to change the picture to bullish. S1: 1975 S2: 1932 R1: 2085 R2: 2135

MCX Zinc Jan: - Up ticks to 60.75 or upto 60.95 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 57.5 or even lower towards 56.0 levels.Only a rise above 61.55 to negate this bearish view.
S1: 58.75 S2: 57.65 R1: 61.00 R2: 62.10


MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 57.25, 57.75 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 54.5 or even lower towards 53.00 levels. A rise above 58.65 to negate this bearish view.
S1: 55.10 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30


MCX Nickel Jan: Mild bullishness seen for the test of 577 , 582 as long as 536 levels hold. A fall below 523.0 to negate this bullish view.S1: 535 S2: 517 R1: 562 R2: 579