VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 30th JANUARY 2009

TRADING STRATEGY :-
MCX GOLD :
The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 13750. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14175. Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 14024 and when it rises above Rs 14024 then buy with the low below Rs 14024 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now below the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant fall with the rise in price indicating short positions unwinding. Resistance is seen at Rs 14294 – Rs 14443.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 13788

MCX SILVER :
The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 18915.
Further buy only on a rise above Rs 19600. Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 19334 and when it rises above Rs 19334 then buy with the low below Rs 19334 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is now in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving up and now near the 70 mark.
Open interest witnessed significant rise with the rise in price indicating fresh long positions build up.
Resistance is seen at Rs 19754 – Rs 20000.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 18981

VIEWS FOR THE DAY :
MCX Gold April: Supports around 14065/13986 could hold for next rally towards 14393/14456.It has to fall below 13986 to weaken the structure, leading to some change in this view.S1: 14025 S2: 13950 R1: 14175 R2: 14230

MCX Silver Mar: Crucial near-term support at 19467 , 19307. Fall below could lead prices towards 18906/18794 from where prices can find support again for a rally higher towards 20462.S1:19300 S2:18950 R1:19700 R2:20000

MCX Copper February: Rallies to 160 : 161.45 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 148.45 : 145.20 levels.A rise above 163.6 could delay this fall.S1: 156 S2:153 R1: 162 R2:167

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Structure is bearish for a fall towards 1915 or more ideally towards 1881 from where it could strongly bounce back towards 2142.Resistance points are seen at 2044/2069 followed by 2122. Rise above 2122 is needed to cause confusion.S1: 2000 S2: 1945 R1: 2085 R2: 2135

MCX Lead Feb: Expect rallies to 57.25 : 57.65 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 54.50 levels.Only a rise above 56.45 to negate this bearish view.S1: 53.85 S2: 52.7 R1: 55.5 R2: 56.15

MCX Nickel Feb: Expect rallies to 570 : 574 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 541 levels.Only a rise above 584 to negate this bearish view.S1: 545 S2: 527 R1: 562 R2: 585

MCX Zinc Feb: - Rallies to 55.75 : 56.20 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.40 levels.

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - A break of the range 214 :225 will decide the nest directive move. S1: 214 S2: 209 R1: 222 R2: 228

VIEWS & TRADING STRATEGY FOR 29th JANUARY 2009

TRADING STRATEGY :-

MCX GOLD :

The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 13475. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 14090.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 and when it rises above Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 then buy with the low below Rs 13943 or Rs 13804 as the stop loss.
MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The 14 day RSI is moving down and now below the 70 mark. Open interest witnessed significant fall with the fall in price indicating long positions unwinding.

Resistance is seen at Rs 14033 – Rs 14172.

PIVOTS :
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 13690


MCX SILVER :

The trend is up. Hold your long positions with a stop loss at Rs 18850. Further buy only on a rise above Rs 19600.
Intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs 19105 and when it rises above Rs 19105 then buy with the low below Rs 19105 as the stop loss. Resistance is seen at Rs 19462 – Rs 19653.
DAILY CLOSING REVERSAL : 18864

COMEX PIVOT LEVELS
SUP-1 878.70 SUP-2 870 PIVOT- 891 RES-1 899.50 RES-2 912

VIEWS  FOR  THE  DAY

MCX Gold Feb: Ideally, 13821 should hold support, failing which we could see a further dip towards 13680 levels now.Favored view still expects supports to hold for a rise towards 14730 levels as long as supports hold.S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Crucial near-term support at 18964/18996. Fall below could lead prices towards 18369/18402 from where prices can find support again for a rally higher towards 20009.
S1:19000 S2:18750 R1:19500 R2:19785

MCX Copper February: Fall below 155 to lead prices lower towards 148 and 140.Only a daily close above 175 to re-inforce bullish expectations again.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2 : 171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : A decline could be seen, targeting 1929. Fall below 1917 might see it attempting 1895.Ideally a strong recovery towards 2132/2157 should begin after this decline.
S1: 2000 S2: 1945 R1: 2110 R2: 2165

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 55.85 , 56.35 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.0 levels.Only a rise above 56.7 to negate this bearish view.S1: 54.0 S2: 53.0 R1: 56.5 R2: 57.15

MCX Lead Jan: Expect rallies to 57.65 : 57.90 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 53.50 levels.Only a rise above 58.25 to negate this bearish view.S1: 55.00 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect rallies to 578 : 585 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 552 levels.Only a rise above 589 to negate this bearish view.S1: 565 S2: 542 R1: 587 R2: 605.

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - A break of the range 214 :225 will decide the nest directive move. S1: 214 S2: 209 R1: 222 R2: 228

VIEWS FOR 28th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Supports at 13944 and 13898 to hold dips for a rally higher towards 14695 levels initially.Direct fall below 13835 to dent our bullish expectations. S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Supports at 18950/19035 to hold for a target of 19933/19998 levels. Dip below 18873 to cause doubts on our bullish view.S1:19200 S2:18950 R1:19700 R2:19985

MCX Copper February: Any rallies being sold into giving a possible feel of a the rallies to be unsustainable. Fall below 155 to lead prices lower towards 148 and 140. Only a daily close above 175 to re-inforce bullish expectations again.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2:171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Break below 2144 has lost the bullish chance and caused a decline. Up ticks could now be resisted near 2093 or 2137/2142 for next decline towards 1934/1920. It needs to cross above 2165 to hint at strength. Next resistance levels are near 2205. S1: 2095 S2: 2040 R1: 2185 R2: 2225

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect price to find support at 54.35 54.05 for a rise towards 58.0 levels. Only a move below 53.25 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 54.0 S2: 53.0 R1: 56.5 R2: 57.15

MCX Lead Jan: Expect price to find support at 55.45 55.05 for a rise towards 59.45 levels. Only a move below 54.65 to raise doubts about this bullish view.S1: 55.00 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30
 
MCX Nickel Jan: Expect price to find support at 550 544 for a rise towards 585 levels. Only a move below 533 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 541 S2: 523 R1: 575 R2: 594

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Expect price to find support at 216 213 for a rise towards 229 levels.Only a move below 210 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 225 R2: 239

FOREX EURO TECHNICAL VIEW: Just as we expected, the pair was able to reach its target at 1.3140 before rebounding back to the upside to breach the key resistance for the downside channel and close above it. We expect to see high volatility around the pivot resistance at 1.3330 where there is a possibility to form a positive technical pattern if the above mentioned level is breached with targets at 1.3740 and 1.3825. However, on the intraday basis, there is a chance to see slight downside movements to retest the key support between 1.3140 and 1.3180.

TRADING IDEA :: Buy the pair above 1.3205 with targets at 1.3325 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3105

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A clear failure to breach the key resistance for the medium term decending channel we have pointed out to yesterday as crude returned to close below the level. The resistacne level for today has shifted to 47.00 - 47.40 followed by a major resistance at 48.50 and as far as trading remains below these levels, crude will continued to fall, Today we expect high volatility as seen on momentum indicators as they show crude being in an oversold area on the hourly charts whereas direction indicators are pointing to the downside. Support levle are found at 40.60 and 40.20 which makes us expect sideways movements between the 47.40 and 40.60 levels

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:As we expected in our previous reports gold doesn't have enough momentum to move to the upside as most of the indicators still support the downside outlook in addition to the bearish candlesticks pattern which confirms our previous expected scenarios. Any break out that occurs below 889.00 as shown on the chart will help the downside correction wave to accelerate towards 879.00 followed by 870.00 (The 1st cluster support) that gold will face before deciding to resume a further expected decline only sustained below 888 we may expect fall

USDINR (48.90) : With RBI making no change in the Credit Policy, expect USD-INR to fall further to 48. in coming days if 49.30 undisturbed
Support: 48.40/48.00/47.75.
Resistance: 49.30/49.90/50.15

VIEWS FOR 27th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Ideally, dips to 14025/14057 to find support and rise higher towards 14732/14763 levels.However, unexpected fall below 13947 to lead into a corrective rally towards 13711 levels.
S1: 13975 S2: 13900 R1: 14150 R2: 14225

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 19214 followed by 18972 for a target of 20118/20166 .Unexpected fall below 18956 to lead to a corrective fall towards 18149 levels.S1:19000 S2:18750 R1:19500 R2:19785

MCX Copper February: Supports are at 166.1 followed by 161.85. Ideally, a test of 189 looks likely as long as the support level holds.S1: 157 S2:154 R1: 165 R2:171

MCX Crude Oil Feb : The structure is bullish and favors a rise towards 2455 or 2490. Supports near 2251, 2219 or maximum 2201 could hold corrective dips.Dip below 2182 would caution about the possibility of a stronger decline towards 2117.S1: 2155 S2: 2100 R1: 2255 R2: 2300

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect price to find support at 57.65 , 57.05 for a rise towards 60.0 levels.Only a move below 55.25 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 56.0 S2: 55.0 R1: 57.5 R2: 58.45

MCX Lead Jan: Expect price to find support at 55.65 , 55.05 for a rise towards 59.45 levels.Only a move below 54.65 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 53.00 S2: 52.00 R1: 55.25 R2: 56.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect price to find support at 571, 567 for a rise towards 605 levels.Only a move below 559 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 565 S2: 543 R1: 587 R2: 610

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Expect price to find support at 217 , 215 for a rise towards 239 levels.Only a move below 210 to raise doubts about this bullish view. S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 236 R2: 247

VIEWS FOR 23rd JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb:The 13276-13291 zone to support any dips presently. Ideally, a broad range needs to be established before a breakout higher towards 14191 levels Unexpected fall below 13260 to have bearish implications.S1: 13475 S2: 13400 R1: 13610 R2: 13695

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 18231 followed by 18068. Direct fall below 18035/18067 to result in a corrective decline towards 17740/17743 levels.Favored view expects supports at 18035/18067 to hold and rise towards potential target at 19294.S1:18300 S2:18120 R1:18750 R2:18900

MCX Copper February: Fall below 155 denotes bearishness now. We could see a pullback towards 159/160 levels now, but rallies should be capped here for a decline towards 148.2. Unexpected rise above 163.6 to re-inforce bullish hopes.S1: 149 S2:145 R1: 157 R2:161

MCX Crude Oil Feb : As expected we saw a test of 2210 levels. The subsequent fall from there has bearish implications. Supports are at around 2062/2067 levels now. Break below yesterday's low could take prices even lower towards 1830 levels.S1: 2000 S2: 1965 R1: 2100 R2: 2195

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 55.35 ,55.85 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 52.30 ,51.00 levels again. Only a rise above 56.5 to negate this bearish view. S1: 53.3 S2: 52.15 R1: 55.35 R2: 56.45

MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 53.55 , 53.65 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 49.5 or even lower towards 48.00 levels. A rise above 54.75 to negate this bearish view. S1: 51.00 S2: 50.00 R1: 53.25 R2: 54.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Rallies to 545.00, 548.00 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 516 or even lower towards 495 levels. A rise above 565 to negate this bearish view. S1: 525 S2: 507 R1: 559 R2: 573

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Rallies to 233.0 , 235 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 215 levels. A rise above 237.0 to negate this bearish view.S1: 217 S2: 209 R1: 236 R2: 247

COMEX GOLD PIVOT; SUP-1 845 SUP-2 835 PIVOT - 854 RES-1 865 RES-2 873 EXPECTATION POSITIVE PROFIT BOOKING AT HIGHER LEVELS IS GOOD

CRUDE SUPPORT AT 38-40 RES SEEN AT 45 TRADING STRATERGY BUY ON DIPS WITH SL 38 ABV 45 EXPECT A TEST OF 50 IN NEAR TERM BUY NEAR SUPPORT

VIEWS FOR 22nd JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: The 13297 - 13313 zone to support any dips presently. Ideally, a broad range needs to be established before a breakout higher towards 14213 levels. Unexpected fall below 13281 to have bearish implications.S1: 13400 S2: 13335 R1: 13535 R2: 13600

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 18361 followed by 18196. Direct fall below 18163/18196 to result in a corrective decline towards 17867/17900 levels.Favored view expects supports at 18163/18196 to hold and rise towards potential target at 19431. S1:18300 S2:18120 R1:18750 R2:18900

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Rise above 2185 to go for 2291 levels now or even higher towards 2382. Supports are at 2130 followed by 2085. Fall below 2078 to dent our bullish view. S1: 2065 S2: 2035 R1: 2165 R2: 2285

MCX Zinc Jan: - Rallies to 57.35 ,58.35 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 54.30 ,53.00 levels again. Only a rise above 59.0 to negate this bearish view. S1: 55.0 S2: 54.0 R1: 56.35 R2: 57.45

MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 55.00 , 55.45 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 50.5 or even lower towards 49.00 levels.A rise above 55.75 to negate this bearish view. S1: 53.00 S2: 52.0 R1: 54.25 R2: 55.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Rallies to 545.00 ,548.00 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 516 or even lower towards 495 levels. A rise above 565 to negate this bearish view.S1:517 S2:500 R1:548 R2:561

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Supports at 232 , 230 likely to hold dips for a move higher towards 243.0 levels. A move below 226 to negate this bullish view.S1: 227 S2: 223 R1: 241 R2: 247

MCX COPPER TREND NOT CLEAR BUT SUP AND RES ARE AS FOLLOWS:S1: 154 S2:150 R1: 162 R2:166

COMEX COPPER PIVOTS LEVELS: SUP-1 143.75 SUP-2 140 RES-1 154 RES -2 160.50 PIVOT 150.25 CMP 145.70 EXPECTATION SIDEWAYS AND MAY TEST SUPPORTS

COMEX GOLD PIVOTS: SUPPORT-1 843 SUPPORT-2 833 RES-1 864 RES-2 874 PIVOT - 854 CMP 852.50 EXPECTATION CORRECTIVE DIP TILL SUPPORT

FOREX EURO TECHNICALS:The pair returned to reach the 1.2840 level once again as it corrected to the upside between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels where there is a possibility to see a technical pattern to the upside with a neckline at 1.3020 with targets of breaching this level are at 1.3160 and 1.3200. A major resistance and pivot point for the pair is found at 1.3085 which was tested once yesterday where if successfully breached, the pair will target the key resistance for the upside channel at 1.3380

TRADING STRATERGY:Buy the pair above 1.3020 with targets at 1.3160 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.2970

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW:Gold is still moving in a tight range below the 61.8% at 852.00 levels as shown on the chart after failure to reach the extension target of the retrace from the lower line of the channel at 868.00 levels represented by the 76.4% Fibonacci. Most of the indicators show that the volume is too low without a clear signal up or down so they are neutral which means that the price explosion is on the way to relief the indicators. We expect that the price will move to the downside in particular if it broke the area between 845.00 and 842.00 then it will be a sign that the short term top is placed

VIEWS FOR 21st JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Our anticipated upside targets were tested. Either a consolidation or a corrective pullback towards 1322713259 levels look likely. Ideally supports should hold and take out the important resistance at 13635/13651 now. S1: 13420 S2: 13350 R1: 13575 R2: 13670

MCX Silver Mar: After a test of 18050 we saw silver futures rising higher again and finding resistance at the trend line at 18623/18705.Ideally 18052/18133 to hold for a test of 18983 Unexpected fall below 17806 to dent our bullish view. S1:18150 S2:17950 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Still in a broad range btw 156 to 176. Break either side to determine direction.Favored view expects a break higher. S1: 160 S2:156 R1: 168 R2:172

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Resistances are at 2066 followed by 2122 now. Ideally, resistances to cap for a decline towards 1856.Rise above 2137 to change the picture to bullish. S1: 1975 S2: 1932 R1: 2085 R2: 2135

MCX Zinc Jan: - Up ticks to 60.75 or upto 60.95 likely to find resistance for a move lower towards 57.5 or even lower towards 56.0 levels.Only a rise above 61.55 to negate this bearish view.
S1: 58.75 S2: 57.65 R1: 61.00 R2: 62.10


MCX Lead Jan: Rallies to 57.25, 57.75 likely to find resistance and move lower towards 54.5 or even lower towards 53.00 levels. A rise above 58.65 to negate this bearish view.
S1: 55.10 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30


MCX Nickel Jan: Mild bullishness seen for the test of 577 , 582 as long as 536 levels hold. A fall below 523.0 to negate this bullish view.S1: 535 S2: 517 R1: 562 R2: 579

VIEWS FOR 20-01-2009

MCX Gold Feb: Expect supports at 12987 followed by 12909 to hold for a rally towards 13284 followed by 13378,only a break below 12752 would negate this bullish view.S1: 13000 S2: 12935 R1: 13165 R2: 13228.

MCX Silver Mar: Expect dips to find support towards 17892 followed by 17696 for a rally towards 18937 followed by 19182, break above 19215 will be a bullish sign and could see prices edging higher towards 20080/20162 levels in the coming sessions, risk for the view is at 17223.S1:18100 S2:17850 R1:18500 R2:18720

MCX Copper February: Prices are consolidating in a broad range as of now. Supports at 162.30/163.30 could hold for a rally towards 175.25 followed by 184.0, close below 160.0 will be a bearish sign.
S1: 164 S2:160 R1: 173 R2:178


MCX Crude Oil Feb : As long as 2088/2112 resist expect prices to edge lower towards 1931 followed by 1872,break above 2117 will be a bullish sign.S1: 1955 S2: 1900 R1: 2055 R2: 2100

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 528 -525 to find support for price to move higher towards 565 -571 levels.Only a fall below 521 to negate this bullish view.S1: 535 S2: 517 R1: 562 R2: 579

MCX Lead Jan: Moving in a broad trading range 58.00 55.05 . Only a break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 55.10 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30

MCX Zinc Jan: - Moving in a broad trading range 62.05 59.0 . Only a break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 59.85 S2: 58.75 R1: 62.00 R2: 63.10

MCX Natural Gas Feb: - Expect dips to 225 227 to find support for a move higher towards 246 249 levels.Only a fall below 223 to negate this bullish view.S1: 227 S2: 223 R1: 241 R2: 247

VIEWS FOR 19-01-2009

MCX GOLD TRADING IDEA
The trend has turned up.
Ideally, cover short positions at market price and on dips to Rs. 13090 – Rs. 13036 or below as the opportunity arises.
As the trend is up, to minimize risk, intra-day traders can wait for a fall below Rs. 13036 and when it rises above Rs. 13036 then buy with whatever low registered below Rs. 13036 as a stop loss. Subsequently, book profits at Rs. 13250 – Rs.13400 or even 13800

INTERNATIONAL GOLD SPOT TRADING IDEA :-we had indicated that on sustained rise above 831$, the price rise towards 844$-868$ is possible. Similar view was indicated for the hourly chart view. Expect a price rise towards 865$-891$ where serious resistance could be witnessed.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER TRADING IDEA :- Resistance will be at 11.40$-11.73$. Support will be at 10.90. Traders holding long positions can look for rise towards the resistance level or above to take profit.But higher range should be used to book profits

VIEWS :-

MCX Gold Feb: Dips to 12987 levels to offer good support now for a test of 13410. Fall below 12987 could delay the bullish move.S1: 13100 S2: 13025 R1: 13225 R2: 13300

MCX Silver Mar: The 17843-18006 zone to offer good support for a test of 18658 initially. Dips below 17761 to dent our bullish hopes.S1:18100 S2:17850 R1:18500 R2:18720

MCX Copper February: Supports are at 164.0 followed by 157.7 now. Ideally a consolidation in the 157.7 168.0 zone to result in a break higher towards 182.0 at least. This is our favored view. Unexpected drop below 157.0 to negate the bullish view.S1: 163 S2:158 R1: 171 R2:174

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Short-term resistance near 2094/2098 could cap the up ticks. The trend and momentum are generally down.So anticipate a test of supports after the initial up ticks. Supports are around 2052, 2013 $ 1998.S1: 2045 S2: 1975 R1: 2110 R2: 2165

MCX Zinc Jan: - Moving in a broad trading range 62.05 60.00 . Only a break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 59.85 S2: 58.75 R1: 62.00 R2: 63.10

MCX Lead Jan: Moving in a broad trading range 57.45 55.05 . Only a break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 55.10 S2: 54.00 R1: 57.25 R2: 58.30

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 528 -525 to find support for price to move higher towards 565 -571 levels.Only a fall below 521 to negate this bullish view.S1: 521 S2: 501 R1: 551 R2: 573

MCX Natural Gas Jan: - Expect dips to 232 230 to find support for a move higher towards 246 249 levels.Only a fall below 229 to negate this bullish view.S1: 229 S2: 223 R1: 241 R2: 247

VIEWS FOR 16-01-2009

MCX Gold Feb: Yesterdays low and a subsequent bounce back from there indicates a possible near-term bottom. Supports are at 12901 followed by 12790 now for an initial rally towards 13186/13235. Break above could revisit 13807 levels again. S1: 12700 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13150

MCX Silver Mar: Supports are at 17677 followed by 17500. Supports to hold for a 18333/18420 followed by 18955 now. S1:17300 S2:17050 R1:17900 R2:18320

MCX Copper February: Still in a broad range showing a potential to rise higher. Rise above 170 to trigger a bullish move now for our target at 193. Only a direct fall below 154 to dent our bullish hopes. S1: 158 S2:154 R1: 166 R2:171

VIEWS FOR 15-01-2009

MCX Gold Feb: As expected failure to cross 13134 led to a fall. The fall could extend lower towards 12534.5 levels ideally. Resistances are at 12867 followed by 13000.S1: 12785 S2: 12710 R1: 12925 R2: 13000

MCX Silver Mar: Failure to rise past 18204/18288 is a bearish sign. The fall is expected to extend towards 16851/16858 levels now as long as resistances at 17903 and 18204 caps the upside. S1:17300 S2:17050 R1:17800 R2:18120

MCX Copper February: Has bounced back reinforcing bullish hopes.Direct rise above 175.0 to test 191.0 levels again. Supports are at 162.0 followed by 156.0.S1: 158 S2:154 R1: 165 R2:169

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Initially we could see prices rising towards resistance levels at 2188 -2205 from there prices could turn back lower towards 1948 -1925. A rise above 2273 to negate this bearish view. S1: 2100 S2: 2045 R1: 2200 R2: 2255

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect Rallies to 62.25/62.45 to find resistance for a move lower towards 58.25 or even lower towards 57.65 levels. Only a rise above 63.35 to negate this bearish view. S1: 60.00 S2: 58.95 R1: 62.05 R2: 63.10

MCX Lead Jan: Expect Rallies to 57.05/57.65 to find resistance for a move lower towards 52.25. Only a rise above 58.00 to negate this bearish view.S1: 54.65 S2: 53.45 R1: 56.45 R2: 57.55

MCX Natural Gas Jan: - Expect Rallies to 253.0/256.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 235.0 or even lower towards 230.0 levels. Only a rise above 257.0 to negate this bearish view. S1: 239 S2: 234 R1:251 R2: 257

VIEWS FOR 14-01-2009 -- HAPPY MAKAR SANKRANTI

MCX Gold Feb: Ideally support in the 12783/12815 zone to hold now for a pullback towards 13210 levels. Failure to rise above 13082 to put prices in danger of a further sell-off towards 12736 or even lower towards 12470.S1: 12900 S2: 12830 R1: 13050 R2: 13135

MCX Silver Mar: Rise above 18006 to trigger a corrective rally towards 18587/18670 levels .Supports are at 17591 followed by 17458.S1:17600 S2:17350 R1:18200 R2:18620

MCX Copper February: Has bounced back quite strongly reinforcing bullish hopes. Direct rise above 174 to test 190 levels again.Supports are at 160.6 followed by 155. S1: 162 S2:158 R1: 172 R2:17

MCX Crude Oil Feb : Supports are at 2187/2163 followed by 2117.Ideally price should rise again towards 2307/2327 or even higher. S1: 2140 S2: 2100 R1: 2245 R2: 2290

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 61.40 60.95 to find support for prices to move higher towards 64.50 levels.Only a fall below 60.00 to negate this bullish view. S1: 62.00 S2: 61.15 R1: 64.65 R2: 65.75

MCX Nickel Jan: As long as 527.0 535.00 levels support expect prices to move higher towards 575.0 585.0 levels .Only a fall below 524.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 524 S2: 508 R1: 565 R2: 587

MCX Lead Jan: As long as 56.10 , 55.90 levels support expect prices to move higher towards 60.0,61.5 levels .Only a fall below 55.00 to negate this bullish view. S1: 57.00 S2: 56.00 R1: 58.80 R2: 60.00

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- As long as 267.0- 270.0 levels resist expect prices to move lower towards 252.0 levels.Only a rise above 272.0 to negate this bearish view. S1: 268 S2: 262 R1: 281 R2: 288

VIEWS FOR 13-01-2009

MCX Gold Feb:- Fall below 13152 led the way for a fall towards 12855 levels. Ideally resistance will be seen at 13152 levels now followed by 13220 for a fall towards 12490. Only a direct rise above 13500 will change the view to bullish. S1:12920 S2: 12845 R1: 13080 R2: 13175

MCX Silver Mar:- As expected a fall towards 17900 was seen. Any rallies to 18125 to find good resistance now. Structure looks positive for a bullish move towards 20530 as long as 17281/17363 holds. S1: 17800 S2: 17350 R1:18400 R2: 18720.

MCX Crude Oil Jan: Structure is bearish and favoured a fall towards 1786/1812 region. Extention to 1678 also is possible. Up ticks if any could be contained between 1863 & 1890. It needs to cross above 1915 to hint a slightly stronger recovery. S1: 1815 S2: 1765 R1: 1905 R2: 1960

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude continues to trade within a descending channel targeting the 34.80 level as an initial target before reaching 32.25. The 36.85 level which is a pivot point separating the upside from downside movements where trading below this level will allow crude to reach the target faster. We need to keep a lookout for the 36.40 level which is a support level for the minor channel which could be a correction point before continuing to fall. The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.25 and the key resistance at 38.40

VIEWS ON COMMODITY FOR 09-01-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:The metal delayed breaching the 835.40 level where at the same time the downside classical technical pattern has weakened and from here we advise to trade cautiously since we see the chance for more upside movements. We need to watch the 873.65 and the 890.55 levels closely where if breached this will go against our expectation; yet if failed, it will continue to decline. Momentum indicators show gold being overbougth whereas the price is starting to show signs of bullish movements adding more to the fact that trading today will be volatile. The direction on the short term is still to the downside but breaching the 890.55 level on the four hour charts will open the way for the metal to reach 914.50.

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Volatile trading continues on the metal but below the key resistance for the ascending channel and below the 11.50 level. We expect to see sideways trading with some tendency to the downside but at any time the 11.86 level is breached, this will result in a new upside wave

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:After the decline witnessed the past two days, crude is not getting ready to rebound to the upside but despite that, the price is still in a downside channel on the short term but due to the rebound from the 61.8% correction at 41.00 and after retesting the minor resistances for the descending channel, we see that our expectations for a slight incline is logical but we don't see that today's increase will be enough to reverse the short term trend that is targeting the 39.60 level at the very least

MCX Gold Feb: Dips could be held above 13347 for a rally towards 13615. Such a move would also release the price out of a channel and might led it towards the next level at 13771. This is the favored expectation. Fall below 13347 would hint at failure and might open the way for 13142. S1: 13350 S2: 13285 R1: 13520 R2: 13610

MCX Silver Mar: Expect dips to 18086 - 17971 to support prices for a move higher towards 18779 -19059 levels . Only fall below 17785 to negate this bullish view. S1:18100 S2:17700 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Expect dips to 165.0,163.2 to find support for prices to move higher towards 174.0, 176.0 or even higher towards 180.0 levels.Only a fall below 157.40 to negate this bullish view. S1: 156 S2:153 R1: 165 R2:168

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Favored view expects a corrective rise towards 2130/2144 region before next decline towards 1893 or even 1832.It needs to rise past 2178 to hint at the possibility of failure of this view. S1: 2000 S2: 1965 R1: 2050 R2:2110

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 59.5 - 59.3 to find support for prices to move higher towards 63.5 levels.Only a fall below 59.40 to negate this bullish view. S1: 59.00 S2: 58.35 R1: 60.50 R2: 61.80

MCX Nickel Jan: As long as 555.00 - 548.00 levels support expect prices to move higher towards 585.0 -596.0 levels .Only a fall below 548.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 540 S2: 525 R1: 575 R2: 597

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Moved as expected. Expect dips to 273.0 - 270.0 to find support to move higher towards 289 -291 levels. Only a fall below 266.0 to negate this bullish view. S1: 280 S2: 275 R1: 292 R2: 300

VIEWS ON COMMODITY FOR 08-01-2009

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:This is the sideways trading we have pointed out to earlier! The metal is trading between the 61.8% correction at 835.40 as seen in the picture above and the key resistance for the medium term descending channel near 874.45 which is slipping further day after day. The downside trend will gain strength if gold breached the support level at 835.40 and trades below it on the four hour charts where our target will be 805.40. However currently, gold is still in a sideways channel and we expect to day for high volatility with slight upside corrections. Our expectations remain valid unless the metal builds a solid base above 890.55

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Sharp trading is witnessed on the metal but up till now we have yet to see trading above the key resistance where if breached, this will open the way for silver to incline. Despite that, we expect high volatility today similar to yesterday's session if the metal failed to breach the 11.83 level and build a solid base above it.

NYMEX TECHNICALS-Just as we expected, crude fell sharply since most of the trading was below the 47.90 level where we also expect the price to continue falling today. However, this doesn't mean that we will not see slight upside waves unless the pair falls to levels below 46.75 which will then open the way to 39.10.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 39.10 and the key resistance at 48.50

EURO TECHNICALS;The incline seen by the pair during yesterday's session took it near the 100 hour MA that is found at the 1.3660 level which is just before a minor resistance level at 1.3670. The pair will once again retest this level but failind to breach it will result in a reverse to the downside that will be confirmed by trading below the 1.3560 with a hourly close.

MCX Gold Feb: Expect 13374 - 13406 levels to cap the upside for prices to move lower towards 12872 levels. Only a rise above 13626 to negate this Bearish view. S1: 13150 S2: 13085 R1: 13320 R2: 13410

MCX Silver Mar: Initially we expect 18530 -18628 levels to cap rallies for prices to move lower to support levels which lie in a range of 17378 - 17181. A breach of 17180 will take price lower towards 16705 -16770 levels. However a rise above 18661 will signal that the expected dip may not materialize and prices could move higher. S1:18000 S2:17700 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect 2203- 2234 levels to cap the upside for prices to move lower towards 2010 levels.Only a rise above 2255 to negate this Bearish view. S1: 2115 S2: 2065 R1: 2250 R2:2310

MCX Copper February: Expect 168.00 -171.00 levels to cap rallies for a move lower towards support levels which lie at 155.00 -152.75 levels. A rise above 171.35 levels could take the prices higher. S1: 160 S2:157 R1: 168 R2:172

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect rallies to 63.00- 63.20 to find resistance for a move lower towards 59.00 levels .A rise above 63.25 would signal bullishness in prices. S1: 60.50 S2: 59.35 R1: 62.50 R2: 63.80

MCX Lead Jan: Initially price is expected to find resistance 57.7 - 58.00 levels for a move lower towards strong support levels at 55.25 ,from where price could turn upwards.S1: 55.50 S2: 54.20 R1: 57.40 R2: 58.35

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect rallies to 605.0 - 610.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 565.0 -570.0 levels . A rise above 613.0 would signal bullishness in prices.S1: 570 S2: 550 R1: 620 R2: 645

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect rallies to 290.0 - 296.0 to find resistance for a move lower towards 276.0 - 270.0 levels . A rise above 298.0 would signal bullishness in prices.S1: 280 S2: 275 R1: 292 R2: 300

OUTLOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MEDIUM TERM TREND ON GOLD:Gold's trend has been in a neutral state for quite some time, as the short-term recovery from 682 battles the broader decline from 1032. This recovery has moved above the upper boundary of the broader bear channel, but it's having trouble with secondary resistance from 890 to 898. Still only a move above the 931 big reaction high from early October would mean the broader bear trend is losing the battle against the recovery. On the flipside, with the dominant cycle in its plateau phase, the key support to watch in the short term runs from 833 to 829. Only a break there would give us the first sign that this 20-week cycle is indeed topping. The next support zone from 811 to 798 would then come into focus

MEDIUM TERM COPPER OUTL LOOK(LME):-Bottoms to both the 20- and 40-week nominal cycles are overdue in copper, standing in contrast to the underlying bear that has controlled the trend since august. Proof is in the price action, and the recent move above 3380 is the first sign of a bullish resolution to this conflict. The next resistance runs from the 3582 Fibonacci level and the next important reaction high at 3840. Penetration of this level would drive home the bullish case opening the door for a run at the 4054 Fibonacci obstacle ahead of the 4820 previous wave (4) high

MEDIUM TERM NYMEX CRUDE OUTLOOK:-The sharp collapse in oil from the july high has been oversold since September, but only recently has it begun to actually stall. The recovery from the 32.40 trend low moved above the bear channel line and has recently probed resistance from the most recent reaction high at 50.05, the first confirmation that the bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs is at least on hold,The next notable resistance is the next reaction high at 55.98. Momentum conditions are keeping the wind at the back of this recovery, but it'll take a move above a tough Fibonacci cluster in the 62.22/64.64 region to make a strong case for a notable bull trend unfolding

GLOBAL MCX COMMODITY OUT LOOK AS ON 7-1-2009

MCX Gold Feb: Support at 13100 has been tested and now the price can stay above that level for inching up further towards next resistance points at 13808 followed by 13901. The ideal projected target falls at 14447 for the present structure. Intraday dips should ideally hold above 13278/13309.Fall below 13245 would warn about the possibility of failure of this view.S1: 13285 S2: 13200 R1: 13450 R2: 13525

MCX Silver Mar: A dip to 18449/18366 is anticipated. If it proceeds further down below 18350 the decline could accelerate towards 17987. It has to rise above 18860 to turn bullish for attempting 19107/19272. As of now indicators favor the downside. S1:18150 S2:18000 R1:18600 R2:18820

MCX Copper February: Daily chart shows a potential to rise towards 196.00. Supports are near 170.30 $ 167.60. Projected target falls near 181.33. It needs to fall below 162.70 to hint at a stronger pullback.S1: 166 S2:162 R1: 175 R2:180

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Supports near 2295/2290 or 2202 could hold corrective dips. The structure is bullish for a rise towards 2550 or even 2617. Fall below 2181 would cause doubts about maintaining this bullish stance. S1: 2340 S2: 2285 R1: 2465 R2:2510

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 63.75/63.50 to find support for a move higher towards 66.50/68.00 levels. Only a move below 62.60 to take prices lower now.S1: 63.50 S2: 62.20 R1: 65.70 R2: 66.80

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 57.50/57.00 to find support for a move higher towards 62.00/64.50 levels. Only a move below 57.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 57.50 S2: 56.20 R1: 60.00 R2: 61.00

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 636 / 628 to support prices for a move higher towards 685-695 levels .Only a move below 607 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 620 S2: 600 R1: 665 R2: 690

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 284- 288 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 275 to negate this bullish view.S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

FOREX TECHNICAL VIEW ON EURO FOR THE DAY:The euro entered the downside wave expected which was quite vigorous taking the pair near the 1.3310 level yet was able to rebound as we currently see trading above the 100% correction at 1.3475 where from there we expect the pair could find the chance to correct to the upside. However, the general trend for the pair remains to the downside and any upside correction will be an attempt to gather bearish momentum to reverse once again. At any moment trading falls below the 1.3475 level, the downside trend will continue

TRADING IDEA:Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below Buy above 1.3505 with targets at 1.3575 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3470. If the stop loss is triggered, sell the pair below 1.3475 with targets at 1.3375 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.3540

COMEX GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE DAY:-Yesterday we pointed out that after the fall, we expect to see volatility in the markets. After yesterday's decline, the metal rebounded back to the upside before slightly dropping today during the early session. Gold is now seen to enter a sideways channel between the 880 and 830 levels to complete the bearish trend. Today we could also see slight inclines but we don't expect it to affect the short term trend. The short term downside trend will be reversed only if we see a successful breakout of the 890.55 level

COMEX SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW:The fall didn't continue yesterday for long as it rebounded back to the upside but failed to form a top higher than the previous top during the beginning of the week and therefore the downside trend remains dominating silver. We see the metal in an overbought area on the stochastic indicator on the four hour charts where from there we expect to see high volatility with slight tendency to the downside

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICAL VIEW:After reversing from the minor resistance level at 50.15 and before reaching the suggested taret near the 50 day MA at 51.45, crude entered a downside wave that is expected to continue falling to reach the support level at 38.75 affected by a negative technical trend that will be confirmed if trading remains below 47.90. The next downside target is 45.85 and 45.25 as far as trading remains below the above mentioned level.

VIEWS FOR 6th JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Expect prices to find support in the region of 13146/13115 levels for a corrective pullback towards 13600/13630 levels which are strong resistance zones from where a move lower cam be expected .A direct fall below 13131 will cause doubt about a possible rally and could see pries testing 12772/12750 levels. Direct rise above 13785 would be bullish. S1: 13250 S2: 13175 R1: 13340 R2: 13425

MCX Silver Mar: Expect prices to find support in the 17585/17635 zones for a move higher towards 19485/19650 levels. A direct fall below 17420 will cause doubt about this view.S1:18150 S2:18000 R1:18450 R2:18750

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect dips to find support in the region of 2255/2240 regions for a move higher towards 2512 followed by 2531 regions.However a direct fall below 2211 could see prices testing 2124 first, which are also strong support levels.A direct rise above 2385 could see prices testing the above-mentioned levels directly before the expected dip. S1: 2265 S2: 2200 R1: 2395 R2:2445

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 61.50 / 61.00 to find support for price to move higher towards 64.60/65.00 levels.A fall below 60.65 will negate this bullish view.S1: 61.50 S2: 60.20 R1: 63.70 R2: 64.80

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 54.50/54.00 to find support for a move higher towards 58.50/59.00 levels.Only a move below 52.50 to take prices lower now. S1: 53.50 S2: 52.50 R1: 55.75 R2: 56.85

MCX Copper February: Buy on dips to 163.6 /161.50 s/l 153.80 t/p 178.00. S1: 154 S2: 150 R1: 162 R2:166

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 610 / 605 to support prices for a move higher towards 658 , 665 levels. Only a move below 590 to cause doubts about this view.
S1: 600 S2: 585 R1: 640 R2: 665

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 277- 265 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 265 to negate this bullish view. S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

VIEWS FOR 5TH JANUARY 2009

NYMEX LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL FOR NEAR TERM:A breakout and close above the trading lower top of 43.44$ has been witnessed. The close for 2 trading days has been above 43.44$.
It looks then Crude Oil is likely to see a pullback rally of the fall from 130$ to 32.4$. The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels are placed at 55.90$ and 69.77$.
Corrective dip to 43.72$-41$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 36.94$


COMEX GOLD NEAR TERM VIEW:The range for international spot gold is 891$-855$.
The rising trend line is slight steep therefore if Gold fails to sustain at the resistance of 882$-891$ then can slip down sharply.
Traders holding long positions can take profit on rise to resistance and re-enter long on close above 891$.
In case of a further breakout and close above 891$ then expect a rise towards 930$ at least


GLOBAL COMMODITIES OUTLOOK IN MCX:


MCX Gold Feb: Prices are consolidating between 13227 : 13721 levels as of now. Expect support at 13335 13366 to hold for a rally towards 13767 13813 .A break below 13210 will negate this bullish view. S1: 13450 S2: 13385 R1: 13630 R2: 13700


MCX Silver Mar: Expect supports at 18241: 18371 to hold for a rally towards 19428 : 19510.A break below 17883 will negate this bullish view.S1:18300 S2:18000 R1:18750 R2:19050


MCX Copper February: Expect supports at 151.0- 152.0 to hold for a rally towards 165.0 : 166.0.A break below 148.00 to negate this bullish view.S1: 154 S2: 150 R1: 162 R2:166


MCX Crude Oil Jan : Expect dips to 2151 : 2165 to hold for a rally towards. 2408 : 2433.A break below 2065 to negate bullishness.S1: 2185 S2: 2120. R1: 2295 R2:2345


MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 60.50 / 60.00 to find support for price to move higher towards 63.60/64.00 levels.A fall below 58.00 will negate this bullish view. S1: 60.50 S2: 59.20 R1: 61.70 R2: 62.80 MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 50.50/49.00 to find support for a move higher towards 55.50/56.00 levels.Only a move below 48.00 to take prices lower now. S1: 52.50 S2: 51.00 R1: 55.00 R2: 56.15


MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 615 / 605 to support prices for a move higher towards 655 : 660 levels .Only a move below 585 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 615 S2: 585 R1: 650 R2: 675 MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 277- 265 for a rally targeting 305 . A fall below 265 to negate this bullish view. S1: 282 S2: 275 R1: 297 R2: 305

INR UPDATE FOR NEAR TERM:USDINR (48.42) Dollar Rupee has given a strong recovery after breaking the previous bottom. While a higher top is yet to be made, the pair is showing strength in the short term. Take a positive view if holds above 48.80. Bearish only on close below 47.00. Outlook: Bias is neutral. Support Levels: 47.50/47.00/45.10 Resistance Levels: 48.80/50.15/53.00

COMEX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:High volatility in the markets accompanied by several attempts to incline have failed where the current trend for the metal is still to the downside. If our expectations are true and gold does depreciate, it could extend its losses towards 849.00 at the very least as far as we see no four hour closings above the 894.05 level on ths short term trend and the 887.10 level on the intraday basis.

NTMEX CRUDE TRADING STRATERGY:Further upside movements resulted from the breach of the 39.85 resistance level where today we could witness a short term upside channel but with intraday volatility. We see this bullish movements is targeting the 50 day MA at 51.80 but as the market opened on a gap, crude may fluctuate heavily with possible downside corrections but as far as trading remains above 44.60, the upside trend on the short term will continue.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 43.75 and the key resistance at 52.40

VIEWS FOR 2ND JANUARY 2009

MCX Gold Feb: Dips could be seen first. Supports are around 13561, 13507/13491 followed by 13295. Favoured view expects 13553/13491 to hold for next rise towards 13802/13864.S1: 13650 S2: 13585 R1: 13820 R2: 13900

MCX Silver Mar: Expect prices to find support in the range of 18134/17954 levels for a move higher towards 19295 followed by 19785.only a direct fall below 17561 will cause doubt about this bullish view.S1:18200 S2:18000 R1:18550 R2:18725

MCX Copper February: Buy on the break of 156.0 and then rest on dips to 153.0 s/l 148.10 t/p 169.25. S1: 151 S2: 147 R1: 161 R2:166

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Favoured view expects a dip first while staying below 2163. Supports are near 2094/2098, 2053. Ideally the correction should end near 2093 for next rally towards 2251/2301 initially. Fall below 2000 is needed to hint that the downtrend might have resumed.S1: 2045 S2: 1995 R1: 2165 R2:2210

MCX Zinc Jan: - Expect dips to 58.00 / 58.65 to find support for price to move higher towards 63.60 levels.A fall below 57.00 will negate this bullish view. S1: 58.20 S2: 57.00 R1: 60.50 R2: 61.75

MCX Lead Jan: Expect dips to 49.40/49.00 to find support for a move higher towards 52.00/53.00 levels. Only a move below 46.50 to take prices lower now.S1: 48.55 S2: 44.40 R1: 50.65 R2: 52.15

MCX Nickel Jan: Expect dips to 567 / 560 to support prices for a move higher towards 600: 620 levels .Only a move below 540 to cause doubts about this view.S1: 565 S2: 540 R1: 605 R2: 625

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- Expect dips to 270- 265 for a rally targeting 299:305 . A fall below 260 to negate this bullish view.S1: 268 S2: 260 R1: 285 R2: 292

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:The breach of the 39.85 level that we have pointed out to in our previous report, opened the way for the pair to reach levels above the 45 mark. We now see the pair could declined to retest the support levels but as far as trading remains above 40.35 on the four hour charts, the intraday trend will be to the upside.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 38.70 and the key resistance at 45.50

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:Further attempts to breach the key resistance for the medium term ascending channel have failed. We see in the image above the butterfly in yellow which will not be breached until we see a successful breakout of the 890.55 level where from here we see the Harmonic Trend with the correction level at 76.4% is still intact and will be confirms the fact that we expect a significant fall. IF GOLD FAILS TO CLS ABV 892 WE MAY SEE A FALL TILL 837 , SO BUY ONLY ABV 892 WITH SL 870 TGT 900-930

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:We see the metal has created an upside trend targeting the key resistance for the ascending channel at 11.79 which will be achieved if silver builds a solid base above the 11.00 level. The upside trend will continue on the intraday and short term as far as trading remains above 10.55
The trading range for today is among the key support at 10.15 and the key resistance at 11.78

FOREX EURO TECHNICALS:The pair started this year trading to the downside as is created a downside channel on the short term with a key resistance at 1.4190 where at the same time, it confirmed an intraday descending channel with a key resistance at 1.4015. The downside trend will continue in the upcoming period but will face the first support at 1.3830 which is the 38.2% correction for the ascending channel that started on 13-10-2008 where from there we expect the pair to rebound to the upside as it is being oversold on the stochastic indicator yet the downside trend continues on the short term.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3615 and the key resistance at 1.4190

SILVER FORECAST FOR 2009 " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTANITY"

SILVER FORECAST FOR 2009 " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTANITY"

SUMMARY :- FIRST:-
Prices outperformed Gold on the way up and are doing so on the way down

SECOND:-
ETF investors have continued to accumulate Silver into the weakness, which is a bullish sign

THIRD:-
Fabrication demand is set to weaken in 2009, while mine supply is set to rise, both of which will see the supply surplus increase.

FOURTH:-
There is a big question mark over the dollar; if the financial situation eventually causes further dollar weakness then precious metal prices could soar.

Fabrication Demand
Fabrication demand covers Silver’s use in industry, photography and jewellery manufacturing. So far in 2008, all these sectors have been hit hard. The high prices in H1’08 that saw an average price of $17.42/oz, after an average 2007 price of $13.38/oz, deterred jewellery demand. Photographic demand is in steady decline with demand falling around 10% per year as digital photography has taken market share much faster than originally thought. Industrial output has been the mainstay of Silver demand growth, growing 7% in 2007. Although many applications are price inelastic, when prices were high consumers lived hand to mouth and since the summer’s rapid decline, there seems little pressure on them to restock. Indeed, there was some inventory destocking as the economic outlook deteriorated. Fabrication demand is expected to pull back by around 8% in 2008 and with hard economic times ahead in 2009, demand is likely to suffer again, although lessening industrial destocking should help boost apparent demand and offset ongoing declines from photography. Overall, we expect fabrication demand to be broadly flat in 2009 at 24,500 tonnes.

Industrial Demand
Industrial requirements account for 43% of total Silver demand and are of paramount importance to the Silver market. In recent years, global growth has been expanding at a fast pace, but this has started to slow in 2008 and is likely to slow further in 2009. Consensus forecasts for World economic growth are 3.5% in 2009, after growth of 3.9% in 2008. As such, we should expect Silver’s industrial demand growth to slow from the 7% seen in 2007. That said, industrial applications now account for 54% of fabrication demand, which is up from 38% ten years ago, and with India, China and the US accounting for 70% of this rise in industrial usage, via a wide spread of new applications, demand may be well cushioned
Asia is now more decoupled from the US than it was during the last economic slowdown in 2001 and 2002, and this may mean the impact on Silver is less severe. In 2002, industrial demand had fallen 10% below the figure in 2000, so we would expect less of a slowdown this time round. However, even a 7% slowdown in 2008 would still mean demand would fall by just short of 1,000 tonnes. For 2009, we forecast demand to remain flat at 13,200 tonnes. We expect industrial consumption to ease, but apparent demand to pick up as consumers return to a hand-to-mouth buying after destocking in 2008. Later in 2009, we would not be surprised to see restocking if prices are still below the $12/oz level.

Photographic demand :-
Use of Silver in the photographic industry peaked in 1999 at around 7,000 tonnes; in 2007 it accounted for 3,990 tonnes and in recent years has been falling at around 10% a year. This trend is likely to continue, although it may accelerate again as more hospitals migrate to digital X-ray systems. Indeed even in China where there was a move to utilise the world’s obsolete X-ray facilities, demand for photographic Silver has started to fall at a rate similar to the global rate of decline. Japan was the only large user to see demand increase in 2007 and that was because they consolidated their photographic manufacturing industry in Japan, having retreated from other countries. All in all, photographic demand is likely to continue falling and if the economic slowdown bites hard, then more photographic manufacturers may opt to move out of the industry, thereby further accelerating the demise of Silver’s use in photography. Overall, falling demand from this sector is likely to free up a further 400 tonnes of Silver next year

New applications :-
The main growth area for Silver’s industrial usage has come from the health, electronics and renewable energy industries. In recent years, strong growth has been seen in consumer electronics in the form of plasma TV / display screens and in solder for a host of electronic gadgets. However, another area now seeing rapid growth is that of thermo photovoltaic cells, which convert light into electricity. Smart tags (RFIDs) remain a growth market and with the price per tag reducing as their use rolls out, growth is likely to increase exponentially. Outside the electronics field, Silver’s antibacterial properties are being incorporated in more and more products from medicines, bandages, soaps, clothing, and chemical compounds added to door handles, photocopier buttons, paper, air conditioning units, all of which help the spread of bacteria in the home, office and in public places, such as hospitals, public transport, restaurants etc. Although only minute amounts of Silver are used per item, the mass of applications will see demand for Silver from this area grow. In addition, Silver may also be about to make inroads into the autocatalyst market for diesel-powered industrial machinery. It is estimated that collectively these new applications could account for up to 1,000 tonnes of demand within the next ten years. So although these new high-tech applications may not rescue the market from this economic slowdown, they may provide a significant boost for demand in the years ahead, which may keep investors’ interest high.

Investment demand :-
The combined ETFs have continued to grow in size despite the rapid pull back in the Silver price. The chart opposite shows the combined end of month holdings of the London, US and Zurich ETFs. The fact that redemptions up until now have been light, suggests that long term investors are still buying into Silver’s safe-haven attributes. Indeed, since the start of the year, the ETFs have grown by 2,786 tonnes. This rate of up-take has been much stronger than expected and will have gone a long way into absorbing the supply / demand surplus generated so far in 2008. Considering this, it is surprising that prices have fallen the way they have.
With demand from the photographic industry slowing and with the potential for a slowdown in industrial demand also looming, the investment side of the equation is going to have to absorb the extra Silver supply coming on stream next year. The question is at what price it will do so. This is something that will need to be watched carefully. Indeed, at some stage the very success of the ETFs may become a threat to how far prices can recover, as with some 8,000 tonnes of visible stocks in the ETFs it does represent a third of annual Silver consumption. Obviously, just because the Silver in the ETFs is there does not mean it is for sale (indeed the opposite maybe true), but it does make the market more vulnerable as the more people that hold investment Silver, the greater the chance that some will break ranks and take profits.

The net Fund Silver position started to grow in early December 2007 with the net long position rising rapidly from 28,000 contracts to 54,000 contracts in late February. Profit taking then kept the net long position around the 43,000 mark until late July, when liquidation selling set in with vigour, taking the net fund long position to around 17,000 contracts by the second week in October. In tonnage terms this meant that on the way up the net fund position grew by 4,043 tonnes, but on the way down some 5,755 tonnes were liquidated. This volume of liquidation selling outpaced the level of buying across the ETFs and as such it is not surprising that prices have tumbled. Going forward, the net fund position at 17,000 contracts is still above the 9,300 net long position seen in September 2007 and the 11,650 contracts seen in August 2005. However, in recent years, the net long position has not spent much time below 20,000 contracts and therefore we would not be surprised to see some speculative buying return. Indeed, given that we expect there will be further need for safe-havens in the months ahead and given that the Gold : Silver ratio has fallen to 1:79, we feel there is a strong chance of seeing a rapid rise in THE LONG POSITION

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :-
The Silver Chart shows the rapid sell-off from the highs, which is making the market look oversold. The lows from June 2006 at $9.46/oz have been breached as has the higher of the two long term up trend lines at $9.73/oz. Failure to hold here would suggest a pull back to the next up trend line at $8.25/oz. The stochastic indicators are still showing weakness, although they are starting to flatten out in the low zone, which may indicate an easing in selling pressure.
However, given the damage to the chart, bulls are likely to want to see considerable consolidation before regaining any significant level of confidence. Although the recent drops have been fast, rebounds could be equally fast. At some stage, the market is going to have to consolidate and build a base, before the market will be ready to advance on a strong footing.
As such, we would expect range trading between $9/oz and $11.50/oz first and if the market is then seen to have put the liquidation selling behind it, prices are then likely to work at clearing overhead supply up to $14/oz. Indeed, it would take a move above $14/oz for Silver to look long term bullish again.

Conclusion and Forecast FOR 2009:-
The extent and speed of the pull back in the Silver price has been shocking, but this does suggest panic selling and in turn prices are likely to have overshot on the way down. Given Silver’s safe-haven attributes, we expect it to pickup further investment buying interest. Indeed, you only have to look at the strong rise in ETF holdings and the rebound in fund long position to see that investment interest is strong.
Fundamentally, Silver is facing a hard time as supply is set to rise while fabrication demand
Fundamentally, Silver is facing a hard time as supply is set to rise while fabrication demand is bound to suffer as the global economy slows down further in 2009. Although on paper supply is set to grow next year, given the massive sell-off in lead and zinc prices, it would not be surprising to see some mine output cuts which may reduce the supply surplus that is currently forecast. However, a large surplus is on the cards and that will mean investors will have to remain strong buyers throughout 2009 if the surplus is to be absorbed. That said, the selling of late seems to have attracted further investor buying and with prices down below $10/oz, other investors who have been sitting on the sidelines may join in. This is especially likely if the dollar starts to weaken again, which we think will be the case at some stage in the months AHEAD

In the near term, prices are expected to consolidate. They may bounce first and then consolidate but we would be wary of fast rallies as overall the damage to the charts, will keep bulls nervous for some time, until a base is seen to be in place. Overall, though, we feel investors will be looking for a safe-haven and Silver along with other precious metals may be the place money initially heads to once the turbulence in the financial market settles down. Given the poor industrial demand outlook, we are reluctant to paint too bullish a fundamental picture for Silver, but we are bullish for Gold and Silver is likely to follow in Gold’s footsteps. Indeed, with the Gold : Silver ratio at 1:79, Silver may once again be seen as a cheap entry point. Overall, we would be surprised to see Silver hold below $9/oz for any length of time and fresh highs would not be out of the question, if there is a seismic shift in confidence away from the dollar. For 2009, we expect the bulk of trading to be within the $9/oz to $18/oz. ~~~ THANKING U ~~~

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FOR 2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY" ---- FOLLOW LINK ::: http://munnabhaianalyst.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-yearly-outlook-on-gold-year-of.html

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2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY"

2009 YEARLY OUTLOOK ON GOLD " THE YEAR OF VOLATILITY WITH UNCERTAINITY"
FIRST-
Prices are falling fast as financial institutions cut exposure across all markets
SECOND-
The current turmoil in the financial markets is creating enormous confusion and demand for dollars is rising as investors head for cash, all of which is weighing on Gold
THIRD-
Expect Gold to attract more investment buying once the dust starts to settle as confidence will be rock bottom and investors will want a safe haven
FOURTH-
Hard to imagine given the current performance, but Gold prices could rise to new record highs once the distressed selling has finished and investors realise the dollar may not be the safest place to take shelter

THE BIG PICTURE
The Western banking system is in a crisis and as this plays out, the wider financial system is suffering. Institutions have been hit by the credit crunch and as such they are retrenching and deleveraging in an effort to consolidate and stabilise. However, the result has been a deepening of the credit crunch and that in turn is affecting the wider economy. The ramifications of this are enormous and one can only hope the domino effect has been contained by concerted central bank and government action. There is a high risk, however, that there is more pain to come and if this is the case then the markets could suffer considerably more. Given this uncertainty and the risks the markets still face, it seems highly likely that more Gold will be bought as a safe HAVEN

FACTORS DRIVING GOLD PRICES:-
The dollar – In addition to the factors mentioned in the above section regarding the dollar, other factors are also providing support for the dollar. The deteriorating outlook for European growth has pushed the euro down against the dollar and falling commodity prices have seen commodity currencies fall against the dollar too. In addition, a much weaker oil price means less dollars have to be sold to buy oil. These trends will remain important for the dollar, but if there is a shift in confidence in the underlying value of the dollar, then further dollar weakness is likely.

Central Bank diversification – On average, central banks hold around 10 percent of their foreign exchange reserves in Gold, with the US holding 78%, Germany and Italy around 67%. By contrast, China, Japan, Russia and Taiwan who also have large foreign reserves, hold only minimal amounts of Gold. China holds 0.9% of its reserves in Gold, Japan 2.1%, Russia 2.4% and Taiwan 4%. With a significant proportion of these reserves held in dollars, there must be considerable pressure for these central banks to diversify their dollar holdings. Indeed, the combination of the current financial crisis, a rise in the dollar and a pull back in the Gold price may well provide an attractive incentive to find ways to diversify. Even if these countries do not buy Gold, the likes of China, which is resource hungry, could decide to spend some of their dollar reserves buying other much needed commodities for their strategic reserves, such as copper, iron ore and oil. In turn, if this weakens the dollar then it could underpin Gold too.

Oil – Oil and Gold prices have been positively correlated for most of the bull run. Indeed, the turndown in oil prices in mid-July this year coincided with weaker Gold prices too. At some stage, we would expect the correlation to break down as it would not be surprising to see oil continue to suffer, as the prospects for demand fall and the outlook for global growth slows, whereas Gold’s safe-haven attributes are likely to support it and indeed boost it before too long. However, as oil and energy products tend to make up a big proportion of commodity baskets, the selling of these baskets is another reason why Gold prices are suffering, even though the market might not actually be that bearish on Gold. Going forward, once the rout in oil runs its course and with OPEC likely to attempt to support prices, we would expect the negative impact on Gold to SUBSIDE

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ::
Gold prices have fallen back and breached the up trend line that started in mid-2005 and have decisively broken the 60-week moving average (300 day), which had underpinned the market throughout 2005, 2006 and 2007. Prices have also fallen below the 2006 peak at $730/oz, which puts the lower peaks seen in 2006 and 2007 into focus as possible support areas. These range from $690/oz down to $650/oz. Just below there at $640/oz is the area where the 60-week moving average, the up trend line and the low price from August 2007 all converge, which may also be a natural support area.
While Gold is undoubtedly oversold in terms of some measurements, as important supports and retracement levels have been broken, bulls will wish to see considerable consolidation before regaining any significant level of confidence. However, if consolidation now follows and a base is built, the overall long term up trend could still carry prices higher. However, it would take a move back above the breached up trend line at $770/oz and really the $820/oz resistance level to start making the chart look less vulnerable. On balance, we would now look for consolidation to set in and to be followed by further upside initiatives in the months ahead.


FORECAST & CONCLUSION ::
With Gold setting new record highs and attracting huge investment and speculative inflow, it is not surprising that profit taking set in. However, over the past few years, we have seen times when the broader market goes into risk reduction mode and that carries Gold prices down with it, but for prices to bounce back once the liquidation selling pressure abates. Although this current sell-off could be saying the bull market for Gold is all over, we do not think this is the case. This current weakness is on the back of deleveraging, which is a severe form of risk reduction, but there is little doubt that the underlying fundamentals for Gold have improved in that the very foundations of the Western financial system have been shaken. When the dust starts to settle, investors are unlikely to have much confidence in any assets, but money will need to be invested in something and assets with intrinsic value are likely to shine above paper assets. Likewise, the dollar is rising strongly, but this seems to be for mechanical reasons associated with the dollar being the World’s trading currency (when things are cashed in, it tends to be for dollars and with banks not lending freely, there is a technical shortage of dollars, hence the dollar is in strong demand), but these are not fundamental reasons. Given the dollar is the currency of the current financial system, in time the weakness in the system is likely to be reflected in the value of the dollar. If this happens, then Gold is likely to rise in value as it is seen as the only quasi-currency not linked to any one government or tied into any one financial SYSTEM.
Overall, given the state of affairs, it does look as though there will be no quick fix to the current problems and the situation may well deteriorate further before stability returns. As such, investors’ confidence is likely to be shaken further and once financial institutions have deleveraged and the dollar tightness this is causing eases, then money is likely to flow into safe havens. As such, it seems likely that there is still a big window of opportunity for Gold to shine in the months ahead, but as always, the timing will be very difficult to judge and it will probably be best to sit on the sidelines until the market starts to lead the way. All said and done, we would not be surprised to see Gold prices rise to new highs, possibly significantly new highs, between now and the end of 2009, while we feel any further downside from here is likely to be short-lived and be followed by higher prices. Overall, we would expect the bulk of trading in 2009 to be within the $700/oz to $1,300/oz range.

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MCX Gold Feb: As long as 12864 ; 12941 levels support expect price to stay firm for a test of 13295 or even higher towards 13511.A break below 12750 would delay the rise and take the price towards 12479,12417 which are stronger support levels.S1: 13000 S2: 12920 R1: 13170 R2: 13265
MCX Copper February: Prices likely to trade in a range of 137.80,146.65.A break of this range will decide the next directive move.S1: 138 S2: 134 R1: 145 R2:149
MCX Crude Oil Jan : As long as 1683 is broken on the downside , expect prices to stay firm for a test of 1850 levels.A break below 1675 levels will negate the possibility of this corrective rise.S1: 1755 S2: 1700 R1: 1865 R2:1910
MCX Zinc Dec: - Expect dips to find support at 53.00 , 53.50 range for a move higher towards 57.50 levels .Only a fall below 52.00 to cast doubt on this bullish view.S1: 54.00 S2: 53.10 R1: 56.30 R2: 57.40

TECHNICALS

FOREX EURO TECHNICALS:The pair entered a downside wave and we now see it trading above the 38.2% correction for the ascending channel that started on 4-12-2008 where we expect to see slight inclines today as far as the above mentioned level at 1.3890 remains intact. The current upside movement will be another attempt to retest the ascending channel that the pair had exited during last week's session yet we still believe to witness some volatility during this upside movement. Note that downside corrections are still possible. We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3945 with targets at 1.4020 and perhaps 1.4090 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.3890
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3730 and the key resistance at 1.4285
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS;The metal did reach our targets at 830 where we currently see the price undergoing a slight upside channel for some time yet we don't expect to see gold inclining above 866.95 or 884 at most. From here we believe to see upside movements for today to complete the bullish wave before entering a downside wave that could be steeper than the one seen during the previous week.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 784.90 and the key resistance at 884.50
The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.00 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:Silver was able to trade within an ascending channel with a key support at 10.93. Since trading is above this level, we expect to see further inclines yet the above mentioned support level is weakening as it failed to halt further declines during the previous week. Therefore, any inclines seen today, will most likely be on an intraday basis
The trading range for today is among the key support at 10.34 and the key resistance at 11.72
The general trend is to the downside as far as 14.70 remains intact with targets at 8.05 and 7.60

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude is still targeting 40.05 and perhaps extend to reach 38.50 yet trading is currently above 42.50 which is the previous bottom on 5-12-2008 which could open the way to 44.95 as an initial target. We currently see crude near the key resistance for the short term descending channel at 43.15 which is extending towards 43.50. Slight declines could be seen today yet the opportunity to breach the above mentioned level is still good which will help support crude to reach further upside targets
The trading range for today is among the key support at 35.85 and the key resistance at 46.00
The general trend is to the downside as far as 92.30 remains intact with targets at 34.85 and 32.25

INR UPDATE WEEKLY:USDINR (47.11) In the daily chart of Dollar Rupee we can see multiple top around 50.15 accompanied by negative divergence by the RSI indicator. This was followed by a sell off which has dragged prices below the previous bottom. Looking at the Fibo levels we can see that both 23.6% and 38.2% stands violated. Selling is suggested on rally. Outlook: Bias is bearish. Support Levels: 46.00/45.10 Resistance Levels: 48.20/48.50

INTRADAY:USDINR (47.59): Dollar Rupee has stagnated. The downfall momentum seems to have temporary stopped with the pair finding support at around 47.40. Action suggested is to sell towards 48.20 or on sustained move below 47.30. Support: 47.30/47.00/45.30. Resistance: 48.20/48.80-90

TECHNICALS ON GOLD, SILVER

COMEX GOLD :: Rarely do technical indicators fail if it moves consistntly with a trend! This is what we witnessed the past two days when the metal rebounded from the 871- 884 critical levels on the short and medium terms. Today we see further declines as far as 866.95 remains intact without any four hour closing where we expect gold to retreat to 830.80 at the very least.

LONG TERM COMEX GOLD :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 934.30 remains intact with targets at 649.20 and 615.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .

COMEX SILVER :: Silver lost all its momentum during yesterday's session and entered a downside channel where it is expected to continue today. On the intrday basis, we see a slight possibility for upside movements but as far as 11.11 remains intact the metal could decline to 10.50.

COMEX SILVER LONG TERM :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 14.70 remains intact with targets at 8.05 and 7.60 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions .

EURO :: Due to the pair failing to close above 1.4620 on the four hour charts, it entered a downside channel that took it back to the 50% correction at 1.4210 - 1.4250 but at the same time price is still within an ascending channel with a key support at 1.4115. Despite us seeing a need for further declines, a rebound from the 1.4210 - 1.4250 to the upside is still possible.

LONG TERM EURO :: The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5080 remains intact with targets at 1.2340 and 1.2225 We depend on four hour closings due to the volatility in financial markets and the fluctuations on the intraday basis. From here we see that using the stop loss and confirming the breach of resistance and support levels is based on these closings to overcome the turbulence that resulted from the current global economic conditions.

HIGH ALERT:If spot gold does not break $930 by 10th January then it will fall to $750 and $680 in January,2009

VIEWS FOR 17th DECEMBER 2008

GOLD TECHNICALS:The targets indicate yesterday were reached where the metal was able to hit the 76.4 percent correction for the trend illustrated above at 857.30 - 858.20. Gold is now at a critical area where price is being affected by three resistance levels at 857.30 , 865.70 and finally 871.75 where these levels could end the upside wave and reverse the trend to the downside but needs to be confirmed by a daily close below 822.60. Currently, we advise cautious trading giving priority to the upside movment due to the support level at 836.40 which could be a good demand point to result in reaching further upside targets yet the end to this wave is near.

SILVER TECHNICALS;Finally, the target at 11.05 was reached and the metal is now trading above this level where it is also at a critical area since a daily close above the mentioned level will open the way to 12.65 whereas a reverse to the downside will take silver to 10.53 at the very least.

CRUDE TECHNICALS:Crude failed to confirm the upside direction where from there it will continue to decline as far as trading remains below 50.50. Despite several signals of an incline, we still need to see confirmation. Today we expect trading to be sideways but at anytime we could witness a sharp decling below the 40 level if crude isn't able to build a solid base above 48.60 oday or in the upcoming days.

EURO TECHNICALS:A vigorous upside movement neglected the fact that the pair was being overbought and as a result reached the 50% correction for the downside wave that started on 15-7-2008 and ended on 27-10-2008 at 1.4185. At the same time, we see trading is still above the 161.8% as seen in the image where this level is at 1.3945 and has become a key support for the pair. The chance is still opened for more gains yet as momentum indicators show that the pair is being overbought could result in high volatility and therefore trading today could be disrupted by a downside correction yet the overall trend is still to the upside depending on 1.3945 and the key support for the ascending channel at 1.3780.
Recommendation Buy the pair above 1.3960 with targets at 1.4315 and stop loss below 1.3815

MCX Gold Feb: As expected we will see rally towards 13245 as spot gold is strong. Corrective dips to find support at 12925 levels now.Very important support is at 12860 now for a possible test of 13553. S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105

MCX Silver Mar: Break and close above 17702 has resulted in a bullish reaction as envisaged. Supports are at 17981 followed by 17669 now.As long as 17653 hold, we can expect a gradual test of 20051.S1:17200 S2:16900 R1:17750 R2:17950

MCX Copper February: Still dangling for direction. Failure to surpass 165.8 and a weak close to add to bearishness.Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 ranges now. Break below could lead prices lower towards 138/139 .S1: 148 S2: 144 R1: 158 R2:162

MCX Crude Oil Jan : While above 2285 a hesitant rise towards 2414/2430 or ideally towards 2477 is anticipated.From there it could start falling again towards 2272 or lower. Rise above 2495 would be a bullish sign.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2385 R2:2425

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now. S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Lead Dec: Supports at 46.50 levels . Expect dips to find support at these levels for a move higher towards 50.0 levels .A break below 46.50 would take prices lower. S1: 46.50 S2: 46.00 R1: 48.00 R2: 49.15

MCX Nickel Dec: A break below 460.0 could take prices lower towards 445-450 levels . Important resistance at 478-485 levels. S1: 450 S2: 435 R1: 480 R2: 505

GOLDspot hit a high of 859.95 Overnight.866-950 Are next targets. But favoured view expects dips initially esp if 848 fails to hold. 834 Is a buying level. Weakness start below 828. Sup820/805/787/778

RUPEE strengthens to 1 month high after US Fed cut. USD/INR47.3850 (1.14%). Due to this global counters' gains would look smaller than its international counterparts.But expect 47 to hold

BUY ON CORRECTIVE DIPS 10.95-10.63 SL 10.40 TGT 11.51-11.83-12.30
BUY GOLD 12950-12980 SL 12900 TGT 13100
GOLD: BUY AT 848 OR ON DIP TO 838 SL 830 TGT 871-888 IN COMMING SESSION

VIEWS FOR 16TH DECEMBER 2008

Releases CountryNameTime (GMT)ExpectationPriorComment
UKCPI and RPI figures (Nov)08:30 Should all be lower than exp.
USCPI figures (Nov)12:30Big drops drop Expectations overdone?
USFOMC Rate Decision 18:150.25%1.00%Analysts expect 0.50%

COMEX GOLD TECHNICALS:Yesterday's closing was above the 61.8% correction just as we expected. Gold may now enter an upside wave once again to take it to levels between 857.30 and 865.70 where targets are as far as 871.85 for the upcoming short term ascending channel. Initially, we see the metal needs a downside correction as seen on momentum indicators that show gold being overbought. However, as far as 822.60 remains intact, the metal may continue to incline.

COMEX SILVER TECHNICALS:A successful breakout of the key resistance for the sideways triangle resulted in the creation of a new upside wave. We see the metal trading within an overbought area on the momentum indicators yet as it breached the above mentioned resistance level, the short term upside trend will remain but could be volatile due to being overbought. Silver is targeting 11.05 as far as trading is above 10.25

NYMEX CRUDE TECHNICALS:A serious attempt in breaching the descending channel to the downside failed after crude returned to trade within the downside channel that has a resistance now at 46.00 whereas the 100 day MA on the one hour charts at 47.90 is gaining strength. Due to yesterday's incline, we could see crude extend its gains today once again to breach the mentioned resistance. An upside movement will not be confirmed unless trading remains above 48.50 or better yet, above 50.50 since the 50 mark was a strong resistance yesterday.The trading range for today is among the key support at 42.35 and the key resistance at 52.40

EVENING CALL BUY GOLD 12790-830 SL 12720 TGT 12920-12960-13000 ABV 13000 HIGHLY BULLISH TGT 13100-13250

SILVER BUY 17200-300 SL 17000 TGT 17500-17750

MCX Gold Feb: Corrective dips to 12793/12810 to find good support for the day and then rise higher towards 13075 or even higher towards 13226.Unexpected fall below 12700 to postpone the bullishness.S1: 12835 S2: 12650 R1: 12980 R2: 13105

MCX Silver Mar: As expected we saw a test of 17700 once again. Failure to close above this level decisively could lead to a sell-off again.Immediate supports are at 17354 followed by 17124. Unexpected fall below 16910 to accelerate the fall.However, a daily close above 17750 to bolster bullish expectations for a 19396.S1:17100 S2:16800 R1:17550 R2:17750

MCX Copper February: Failure to surpass 166.0 and a weak close to add to bearishness. Supports are in the 150.0/152.0 range now.Break below could lead prices lower towards 138.70/140.0 .S1: 152 S2: 148 R1: 160 R2:165

MCX Crude Oil Jan : First line of supports is near 2238/2248.5 followed by the next level near 2160/2181. Favoured view expects a rebound from any of these supports towards 2455. Fall below 2155 would hint that price could fall further towards the breakdown point at 2093.S1: 2285 S2: 2215 R1: 2400 R2:2460

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels .Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 475- 465 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels.A fall below 445 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 465 S2: 442 R1:510 R2: 532

MCX Natural Gas Jan :- As long as 266.0-263.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 258 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

SPOT GOLD:: GOLDspot: Bias is +ve. $834 And 828 are entry points for rallies targetting 844-854-866. Break of 828 indicates bearish bias. Free fall below 820. Sup805/787/787 EXPECTATION : EXPECT SUPPORT TO HOLD FOR RALLIES

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 15TH DECEMBER

MCX Gold Feb: Dips to 12716/12732 to hold supports for an initial test of 13152. Further resistances are at 13386 and 13728.For the week we favor a test of 13728 as long as 12560 hold.S1: 12735 S2: 12650 R1: 12900 R2: 13005

MCX Silver Mar: Immediate resistance is at 17620 and stronger ones are at 17870/17937. A break and close above 18004/18037 should open the way for a sharp rise towards 19791 or even higher towards 21127. This is our favored view. However, failure to surpass 17954. regions could re-in force bearish expectations. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550

MCX Copper February: Once again bullish signs appear. Rise and close above 168.0 to trigger a clear bullish move. Initial resistance is at 175.0 followed by 183.50/185.50 levels. Important supports are at 160.70 followed by 155.16 S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176

MCX Crude Oil Jan : Price could attempt to rise towards levels like 2586/2612 or even 2720. Short-term dips if any could be held near 2400/2423 or maximum 2317 for an upturn. It has to fall below 2300 to reassess the situation. S1: 2385 S2: 2325 R1: 2475 R2:2550

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 50.5-51.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 53.75-54.85 levels . Only a fall below 50.00 levels to negate this bearish view now.S1: 50.5 S2: 49.80 R1: 52.50 R2: 54.20

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find support at 500 levels for a move higher towards 550 levels. A fall below 495 to cast doubt about this view. S1: 485 S2: 465 R1:520 R2: 550

GOLD COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATE:Gold started the week slightly inclining but still below the 835.75 critical level which halts the metal from extending thegains to reach 858.20 and 866.45 respectively. Trading above the 806.85 level will result in the pair attempting to retest the above mentioned resistance level to achieve the next targets

SILVER COMEX TECHNICAL UPDATEnce again, silver is trading below the key support for the sideways triangle attempting to breach it to reach 11.05. We should monitor the intraday trend as the metal is declining due to trading below the mentioned resistance at 10.46 however the breach of this level will open the way for the metal to reach its targets gradually.

CRUDE NYMEX TECHNICALS:Crude is trading below the resistance level at 47.55 and the 100 day MA on the four hour charts at 48.45. If prices remain below this level, we will see a significant drop yet we should remain cautious since trading above the 100 day MA will reverse the trend on the intraday basis for today and will incline targeting 50.50

JACK POT CALL ::
BUY CRUDE IN DIP 45.50-44.30 SL BELOW 43.30 TGT 49 - 50.50 DAILY CLS ABV 49.50 WILL ZOOM TO 54-56

VIEWS FOR 12TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: A corrective dip towards 12565 12457 regions is anticipated. Ideally next upturn in this support region should carry it towards the next projected objective at 13060/13074. This is the favored scenario. Fall below 12442 could cause some doubts about this view as such a dip could pull it down further towards next support at 12365.S1: 12735 S2: 12650 R1: 12900 R2: 13005

MCX Silver Mar: Corrective dips to 16710/16628 could find support for a move higher towards 17698/17780, break below 16331 would negate this bullish view. S1:17000 S2:16800 R1:17250 R2:17550

MCX Copper February: Prices are moving in a broad range of 155.55 and 170.0, break of the range will decide the direction.S1: 162 S2: 157 R1: 171 R2:176

MCX Crude Oil Dec : Favoured view expects that supports near 2240/2230 could be tested before next rally towards 2400/2424.Unexpected dip below 2218 would hint at weakness. Next supports are around 2203 ; 2146.S1: 2285 S2: 2225 R1: 2375 R2:2450

MCX Lead Dec: A break of the range 48.50-51.0 would decide the next directive move.S1: 49.10 S2: 48.50 R1: 51.10 R2: 52.70

MCX Nickel Dec: Expect prices to find resistance at 550 levels for a move lower towards 500 levels.A rise above 551 to cast doubt about this view.S1: 512 S2: 488 R1:540 R2: 555

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 266.0-262.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 260 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 2

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.75-55.0 levels resist , expect prices to move lower towards 51.0-49.5 levels .A rise above 55.0 to negate this bearish view.S1: 52.5 S2: 51.50 R1: 54.20 R2: 55.20

ALERT: GOLDspot: Intraday bias to be negative as long as 820 holds.805 Is a buying support. Sup below at 787/778 (last). Bullish again only above 830.Watchout for Comex Expiry(Dec29) related long liquidation 12.12.2008 :

VIEWS FOR 11th DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Break above 12559/12590 is a positive sign and should lead prices towards 12905 or 13077 levels now. Supports are at 12387 followed by 12293 levels now.S1: 12635 S2: 12550 R1: 12800 R2: 12895

MCX Silver Mar: Expect prices to rise towards 18080 levels being a strong resistance point. Ideally, prices should cap here or before this level for a decline,as the big picture structures remain weak.S1:16720 S2:16380 R1:17350 R2:17750

MCX Copper February: A messy consolidation in progress. Supports are at 159 followed by 155 now. We favor supports to hold for a test of 182 or even higher.Direct fall below 152 to accelerate the fall towards 124.S1: 163 S2: 157 R1: 172 R2:178

MCX Crude Oil Dec : Favoured view expects an upturn near the supports that are located around 2100/2114, 2050 $ lastly 2030.The potential for a rally towards 2257 or 2291 continues to exist. Price has to fall below 2027 to hint at the possibility of some more downside attempts.S1: 2150 S2: 2098 R1: 2257 R2:2310

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 48.0-48.15 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 50.5-50.75 levels . However a fall below 48.00 would negate this bullish view.S1: 48.50 S2: 47.50 R1: 50.10 R2: 51.70

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.0-54.25 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 56.8-57.25 levels .However a fall below 53.80 would negate this bullish view.S1: 54.15 S2: 53.50 R1: 55.90 R2: 57.20

MCX Nickel Dec: As long as 487.0-475.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 532.0-550.0 levels .However a fall below 470.00 would negate this bullish view.S1: 485 S2: 462 R1:525 R2: 550

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 273.0-269.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels .However a fall below 268 would negate this bullish view.S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

VIEWS FOR 10TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb:Continues to consolidate with a mild bullish bias.Resistance in the 12502-12540 zone quite strong could even extend to 12610 as long as 12110 holds. S1: 12272 S2: 12185 R1: 12395 R2: 12470

MCX Silver Mar: Resistance is at 17250 followed by 17620 now. Big picture structures favor a downside still and expect resistances to cap for a decline towards 15832. Direct rise above 17860 to cast doubts on our bearish view. S1:16720 S2:16380 R1:17072 R2:17246

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Supports are at 2040/2045 levels now. Ideally, a consolidation between 2045 to 2193 to continue and then breakout higher towards 2370 or even higher. This is the favored expectation. Failure to hold support at 2020-2045 zones to take prices lower towards 1873. S1: 2095 S2: 2035 R1: 2175 R2:2210

MCX Copper February: A messy consolidation in progress. Supports are at 160 followed by 157 now. We favor supports to hold for a test of 185 or even higher. Direct fall below 153 to accelerate the fall towards 126.S1: 160 S2: 157 R1: 167 R2:170

MCX Zinc Dec: - As long as 54.0-54.25 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 56.8-57.25 levels . However a fall below 54.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 54.15 S2: 53.50 R1: 55.90 R2: 57.20

MCX Lead Dec: As long as 48.0-48.15 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 50.5-50.75 levels . However a fall below 48.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 48.00 S2: 47.00 R1: 50.10 R2: 51.70

MCX Natural Gas Dec :- As long as 273.0-269.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 284-290 levels . However a fall below 268 would negate this bullish view. S1: 267 S2: 260 R1: 283 R2: 290

MCX Nickel Dec: As long as 452.0-447.0 levels support , expect prices to move higher towards 475.0-487.0 levels . However a fall below 447.00 would negate this bullish view. S1: 447 S2: 420 R1:472 R2: 485

VIEWS FOR THE WEEK FROM 08TH DECEMBER 2008

MCX Gold Feb: Resistances are at 12303 followed by 12430 now. Rise above 12430 could lead prices higher towards 12672 levels again. However, price structures, are not conducive for any major upside and expect a test of 11550 levels. S1: 12035 S2: 11950 R1: 12199 R2: 12322

MCX Copper February: A possible upward correction can be seen. The first trigger will be a rise above 171.50 followed by close above 178. In the absence of this move the downside rally could continue towards 157.S1: 159 S2: 155 R1: 165.70 R2:169.55

MCX Crude Oil Dec: Favoured view expects a corrective rise towards 2170 / 2250. Supports are near 2095 $ 2078. Fall below 2075 would cause doubts about maintaining this stance. Below 2025 we could see the resumption of downtrend that has its next target at 1802 to begin with S1: 2078 S2: 2025 R1: 2145 R2:2188

MCX Zinc Dec: - Supports at 53.05 / 52 levels now. While above these levels we could expect corrective rallies towards 57/58 levels. Fall below 52 to see further weakness in prices.S1: 53.10 S2: 52.00 R1: 55.60 R2: 57.20

MCX Lead Dec: A break above 50 could see a corrective rally towards 52.50/53 levels. On the other hand a fall below 46 would be required to see prices prices weaken further.S1: 46.25 S2: 45.00 R1: 49.50 R2: 51.70

MCX Nickel Dec:Rallies to 471/480 could find resistance for a fall lower toward 440, break above 485 would negate this bearish view.S1:447 S2:420 R1:472 R2:485

MCX Natural Gas Dec While below 295 / 306 prices could stay under pressure and a break below 284 to see further weakness. A rise above 313 would negate this view. S1: 285 S2: 270 R1: 295 R2: 306