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2010-11-30T18:25:00.002+05:30

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MCX & COMEX OUTLOOK FOR 23rd NOVEMBER 2010

2010-11-23T17:06:00.000+05:30

Mcx Gold Dec: Rallies to 20280/20360 to hold for a decline towards 19400/18800 now. Break of 20400 will negate this bearish view.
S1 19260 S2 18750 R1 20360 R2 20500

Mcx Silver Dec: Prices to find resistance near 42200/42600 levels again for a move lower towards 40200/38200 now.
S1 39400 S2 38200 R1 42000 R2 42600

Mcx Copper Nov: Prices to find resistance near 378/379 to hold for a move lower towards 365/357/330(ST) now. Prices to break above 388 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 363.50 S2 356 R1 380 R2 388

Mcx Crude Dec: Resistance seen at 3745/3770 could drag prices towards 3600/3560 levels now, break above 3800 to dent this bearish view.
S1 3600 S2 3560 R1 3740 R2 3827

MCX Nickel Nov: Sell on rallies to 984/992 targetting 940/880. Break of 1017 to dent this view.
S1 938 S2 870 R1 1009 R2 1031

MCX Lead Nov: Good selling pressure is seen below 99 levels towards 97/91 now.
S1 97 S2 90 R1 104 R2 108.80

MCX Zinc Nov: Prices to find resistance near 98/99.90 to hold for a move lower towards 91/85 now.
S1 90 S2 85 R1 101.80 R2 103.60

MCX Nat gas Dec: Dips to 200/198 to hold for 212/220 now. Unexpected break below 192 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 192 S2 186 R1 218 R2 229

NCDEX Steel Long Dec: Rallies to 24920 to hold for a move lower towards 24600/24000 now. Unexpected break above 25120 to dent this bearish view.
S1: 24600 S2: 24000 R1: 25120 R2: 25700

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

The trend has turned up.

Prices have taken resistance of 20156 as stated in our recent reports.

However, gold manages to close above breakout of Rs. 20110.

Cover any short positions on dips to Rs. 20104 – Rs. 20051 or below as the opportunity arises.On sustain rise above Rs. 20156, expect price to go to Rs. 20280 – Rs. 20475 levels.A trading stop loss will be placed at Rs. 19915.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

The trend is up.

Prices have take resistance at 78.6% correction of the recent fall from Rs. 43174 – Rs. 38338.If the high of Rs. 42078 do not get crossed then expect a sideways to downward momentum in near terms.Ideally, book profits on rise to Rs. 42000 or above.Buy on rise above Rs. 42078 with low of the day stop loss or Rs. 41200 whichever is lower.

MCX & COMEX OUTLOOK FOR 22nd NOVEMBER 2010

2010-11-22T17:10:00.000+05:30

Mcx Gold Dec: Rallies to 20180/20290 to hold for a decline towards 19800/19600 now. Break of 20400 will negate this bearish view.
S1 19900 S2 19750 R1 20300 R2 20500

Mcx Silver Dec: Rallies to 42000 looks likely, strong consolidations around 42200/42600 could hold for a decline towards 41000/38300 now.
S1 39400 S2 38200 R1 42000 R2 42600

Mcx Copper Nov: Prices to find resistance near 388/392 to hold for a move lower towards 375/366 now. Prices to break above 396 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 378 S2 364 R1 388 R2 396

Mcx Crude Dec: Prices to stay above 3735 to show strong buying signals, failure of which may drag prices to 3600/3560 levels again.
S1 3610 S2 3560 R1 3740 R2 3827

MCX Nickel Nov: Rallies to 1020/1028 to hold for a decline towards 980/940 now.
S1 970 S2 938 R1 1026 R2 1038

MCX Lead Nov: Rallies to 105/108 to hold for a decline towards 100/97 now.
S1 99.60 S2 97 R1 106 R2 108.80

MCX Zinc Nov: While below 103.60, expect further bearish moves towards 90/85 levels. Break above 103.60 can negate this bearish expectation.
S1 93.60 S2 90 R1 101.80 R2 103.60

MCX Nat gas Nov: Dips to 184 to hold for 198/208. Unexpected break below 180 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 182 S2 176 R1 198 R2 209

NCDEX Steel Long Dec: Dips to 25120/25300 to hold for a move lower towards 24000 now. Unexpected break above 25700 to dent this bearish view.
S1: 24360 S2: 24000 R1: 25300 R2: 25700

SPOT SILVER ::

Expect higher range of 27.78$-28.71$ to be tested.

Traders by chance long can keep a stop loss at 26.35$.

Sell on fall below 26.35$ with high of the day stop loss.

SPOT GOLD ::

Hold short positions if any with a stop loss of 1365$. On rise above 1365$ expect a rise towards 1385$.

Sell on fall below 1341$ with high of the day stop loss or 1365$ whichever is higher. Cover short positions at 1321$-1315$ as the opportunity arises.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

In the Friday’s update, we had indicated that Corrective dip to 40200-39530 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 38338.

The low registered on Friday was 40077 and closed at 41490 on Saturday. Traders who managed to buy had the opportunity to benefit.

Expect rise to 41852 or above. Traders can take profit at 41852 or above for buy activated at 40200 or below.

Traders can keep a stop loss of 40077 to hold long positions.

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

On Friday, we had indicated to Sell on rise to 20007-20092 with a stop loss 20155. The high registered till Saturday was 20121 and closed at 20095. Traders who sold can cover positions at 20033-19962 as the opportunity arises.

On close above 20155, the rise can get extended towards 20282-20338 range.

Support is at 19915-19819. Further selling can be considered only on fall and close below 19819 with high of the day stop loss.

COPPER LME ::

The first peak was made in 2006 at 8790$.

The second multiple peak was made just above 8790$ but failed to show the weekly close above 8790$. The peaks made in 2008 were 8810$, 8880$ and 8930$. All these occasion when the peak was made in 2008 the close was lower below 8790$. This means that strong resistance and selling pressure to get witnessed at 8790$ or above.

Resistance zone of 8790$-8930$ continues at higher range. Profit booking at 8719$-8900$ is broadly suggested or keep a stop loss of 8025$.

Last week, we had indicated to buy on corrective dip to 8513$-8153$ can be used for buying and to hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 8025$.

The low registered last week was 8105$ and closed at 8450$

Traders who managed to buy at 8153$ as mentioned had the opportunity to benefit as the close of the week was at 8450$.

Exit long on rise to 8719$-8920$ as the opportunity arises. Re-enter long if the close is above 8920$. If that happens then expect a rise beyond 9295$ subsequently.

ALLUMUNIUM LME ::

The breakout above 2486$ was not seen but support of 2310$ was violated and closed below it as well.

Traders by chance long can use rise and intra-week pullback to exit long to 2331$-2412$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect lower range of 2205$-1999$ to be tested.

NICKLE LME ::

Last week, we had indicated to Exit long on rise to 23248-2472. The high registered last week was 23695$ and closed at 21700$.

Traders who followed the view to exit long on rise to 23249 had the opportunity to benefit as a significant fall was seen at the end of last week.

The earlier rise was from 17325$ to 25125$. The 50% retracement was test last week at 21175$. The low made was 21100$. The 61.8% is at 20250$.

Better opening and the rise in the early part of the week can be used to exit long. Exit long on the rise to 22165$-23230$ as the opportunity arises.

Traders can take chance to sell on rise to 22500$ with a stop loss of 23695$.

Expect lower range of 20635$-18040$ to be tested and can be used for covering short positions.

LEAD LME ::

The stop loss of 2380$ was violated and Lead on LME made a low of 2236$.

Exit long on rise to 2359$-2481$ range as the opportunity arises.

Expect lower range of 2167$-1853$ to be tested.

MCX & COMEX OUTLOOK FOR 18TH NOVEMBER 2010

2010-11-18T11:15:00.000+05:30

Mcx Gold Dec: Rallies to 20170/20270 to hold for a decline towards 19600 now. Break of 20400 will negate this bearish view.
S1 19750 S2 19450 R1 20370 R2 20500

Mcx Silver Dec: Rallies to 39900/40400 to hold for a decline towards 38100/ 37000 now. Unexpected break of 41300 to dent this bearish view.
S1 38160 S2 37200 R1 40000 R2 40600

Mcx Copper Nov: Rallies to 382/384 to hold for a move lower towards 365 now. Prices to break above 387 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 363.80 S2 356.30 R1 387 R2 396

Mcx Crude Nov: Prices to stay above 3675 to hold the bearish moves, break below 3675 supports seen at 3600/3560.
However, an opening move above 3700 could help the prices to become stable & to reach near 3800 levels.
S1 3610 S2 3560 R1 3740 R2 3827

MCX Nickel Nov: Rallies to 1004/1012 to hold for a decline towards 942/890 now.
S1 938 S2 880 R1 1012 R2 1031

MCX Lead Nov: Rallies to 104/106 to hold for a decline towards 97/91 now.
S1 97 S2 90.60 R1 104 R2 108

MCX Zinc Nov: Rallies to 100.60/102 to hold for a decline towards 91 now.
S1 93.60 S2 90 R1 101 R2 103

MCX Nat gas Nov: Dips to 178/174 to hold for 190/205. Unexpected break below 163 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 168 S2 163 R1 192 R2 209

NCDEX Steel Long Dec: Dips to 24500/24400 to hold for a move higher towards 24760/25100 now. Unexpected break below 24200 to dent this bullish view.
S1: 24260 S2: 24000 R1: 24766 R2: 24980

TRADING STRATERGY FOR THE DAY ::

MCX SILVER DECEMBER ::

Following was the hourly chart view mentioned yesterday “The hourly chart is retraced the last rise in the chart by 61.8% and RSI is in oversold zone. MACD need to trigger a buy followed by a breakout above the price trigger of 39140 can pull back a rise towards 39640-39970. A fall and hourly close below 38338 will confirm the slide towards 78.6% retracement which is at 37475.”

Silver did cross the trigger of 39140 and moved up to 39588 to fall down to 39150 at closing.

The next resistance now is at 39588. If the resistance is crossed then expect a pull back of the fall from 43174 to 38338. The 23.6% pull back has already been done when it attained high of 39588 yesterday.

On the immediate front from hourly chart perspective, the low of 38338 must not be violated and surely should cross 39588. If that happens then on intra-day, we could see some up towards the retracement levels of the fall which are placed at 40184 and 40774
As per the daily chart, we had mentioned that the Objective will be to sell on rise to 38891-39443 with a stop loss of 39970. Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 38891 or 39443 and when it falls below 38891 or 39443 then sell with high above 38891 or 39443 as the stop loss.

The high registered yesterday was 39588 and closed at 39150. In a way the second level of 39443 was attained and close at 39150. Traders who managed to sell at 39443 had the opportunity to benefit.

Expect higher range of 39605-40533 as per daily chart levels for intra-day to be tested.

Traders short need to maintain a stop loss of 39588 to hold short as we the high of 39588 can extend the rise towards 39605-40533.

Support will be at 38660-38338. Sell on fall and close below 38338 with high of the day stop loss or 39558 whichever is higher.

MCX GOLD DECEMBER ::

On rise above 19928, expect 20021-20185 range to be tested.

On the hourly chart, the RSI was in oversold zone and yesterday moved above it. Resistance now is at 20044-20069. The price trigger for minor rise is 20069. If price move above 20069 then we could find level of 20155-20185 to be tested.

Violation of support of 19819 will lead to a further slide.

SPOT GOLD ::

Cover short positions at current price to 1330-1316$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect a rise towards 1344$-1358$

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Support is at 79$. If the same gets violated then expect slide towards 78-77$ at least and to an outer extent to 75-74$.

Traders by chance short can keep a stop loss of 83$.

NYMEX GAS ::

Hold long position with a stop loss of 3.70$.

Corrective dip to 3.95-3.87$ can be used for buying.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!!

MCX & COMEX OUTLOOK FOR 16TH NOVEMBER 2010

2010-11-16T14:37:00.000+05:30

Mcx Gold Dec: Pullbacks to 20270/20370 to be sold for a decline towards 19800 / 19600 now. Break of 20500 will negate this bearish view.
S1 19750 S2 19450 R1 20490 R2 20700

Mcx Silver Dec: Rallies to 39900/40400 to hold for a decline towards 38100/ 37000 now. Unexpected break of 41300 to dent this bearish view.
S1 38160 S2 37200 R1 41300 R2 42000

Mcx Copper Nov: Dips to 386/384 to hold for a move higher towards 396/408 now. Prices to fall below 378 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 382 S2 367 R1 402 R2 408

Mcx Crude Nov: Dips to 3800/3780 to take prices higher towards 3900/4000 now. unexpected fall below 3730 to dent this bullish view.
S1 3777 S2 3733 R1 3940 R2 4100

MCX Nickel Nov: Rallies to 1025/1035 to hold for a decline towards 970/900 now.
S1 995 S2 965 R1 1040 R2 1058

MCX Lead Nov: Rallies to 112/114 to hold for a decline towards 104/99 now.
S1 103.60 S2 97 R1 112 R2 114

MCX Zinc Nov: Rallies to 106/107 to hold for a decline towards 98/92 now.
S1 97.60 S2 90 R1 105.80 R2 108

MCX Nat gas Nov: Dips to 172/170 to hold for 180/196. Unexpected break below 163 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 168 S2 163 R1 182 R2 195

TRADING STRATEGY ::

SILVER MCX DECEMBER ::

The hourly chart show that a momentum will come back again after couple of days to correction mode which reduced the large volatility range.

Volume bar seen at 9.55 pm hourly bar yesterday and tested the resistance as shown in the chart. The range of the volume bar was 39970-39468. Either side move can shown trading movement and momentum.

As per the daily chart the trend is down and sideways at this point. Support is at 39000. Sell on fall below 39000 with high of the day stop loss or 39970 whichever is higher.

On the basis of hourly chart for the day, traders can buy above 39970 with low of the day stop loss or 39468. Alternatively, sell below 39468 with high of the day stop loss or 39970 whichever is higher.

GOLD MCX DECEMBER ::

The hourly chart shows the resistance gap at 20320-20367 with red color horizontal lines and the falling trend line in orange color.

Volatility is a narrow band of 20485-20005 is likely to be tested. The resistance gap of 20320-20367 could attract profit booking and selling.

Support of 20028 still held. The earlier breakout point was 20028 and the low in last 3 trading days was 20005. The price since then has moved up a bit on Saturday and yesterday to 20233 thereby validating the support of 20028.

Expect higher range of 20321-20537 to be tested and can be used for profit booking.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

On rise above 1377, expect a pullback towards 1393.

Use rise from current level of 1358-1372 to exit long.

On fall below 1354 expect lower range of 1340-1328 to be tested.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Hold short with a stop loss of 26.5$.

Sell on rise to 25.79$-26.16$ with a stop loss of 26.5$.

Expect lower range of 25.11$-24.06$

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Traders long as can keep a stop loss of 3.70$.

Expect higher range of 3.91-4.08$ can be used to exit long.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Buy above 85.8$ with low of the day stop loss.

Buy at 84.3-83$ with a stop loss of 79$.

Buy is suggested based on perspective and on trend in this case.

Earlier breakout point was at 84$ the same is likely to offer support.

ENJOY TRADING !!!!!

MCX & COMEX OUTLOOK FOR 15TH NOVEMBER 2010

2010-11-15T16:35:00.000+05:30

Mcx Gold Dec: Rallies to 20200/20270 to hold for a decline towards 19800 / 19600 now. Break of 20400 will negate this bearish view.
S1 19750 S2 19450 R1 20426 R2 20700

Mcx Silver Dec: Rallies to 39900/40400 to hold for a decline towards 38100/ 37000 now. Unexpected break of 41300 to dent this bearish view.
S1 38160 S2 37200 R1 41300 R2 42000

Mcx Copper Nov: Rallies to 393.60/396 to hold for a decline towards 380/372 now. Prices to rise past 402 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 382 S2 367 R1 402 R2 408

Mcx Crude Nov: Dips to 3800/3780 to take prices higher towards 3960/4100 now. unexpected fall below 3733 to dent this bullish view.
S1 3777 S2 3733 R1 3970 R2 4100

MCX Nickel Nov: Rallies to 1037/1044 to hold for a decline towards 970/900 now.
S1 995 S2 965 R1 1040 R2 1058

MCX Lead Nov: Rallies to 112/114 to hold for a decline towards 106/104 now.
S1 106 S2 104 R1 112 R2 114

MCX Zinc Nov: Rallies to 106/107 to hold for a decline towards 101/98 now.
S1 100.50 S2 97.60 R1 105.80 R2 108

MCX Nat gas Nov: Dips to 168 to hold for 180/196. Unexpected break below 163 to cause doubt on this view.
S1 163 S2 155 R1 182 R2 195

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

Exit long and sell on rise to 39563-40125 with a stop loss of 41110.

Expect lower range of 38575-37025 to be tested.

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY;-Exit long on rise to 20133-20260-20475 as the opportunity arises. On sustained fall below 19996 downward movements could further accelerate.

COPPER LME ::

The first peak was made in 2006 at 8790$.

Last week, we saw Copper peak the peak again above 8790$ by making a high of 8920$ and closed lower at 8670$.

Resistance zone of 8790$-8930$ continues at higher range. Profit booking at 8717$-8900$ is broadly suggested or keep a stop loss of 8025$.

Corrective dip to 8513$-8153$ can be used for buying. Further long positions can be added on close above 8930$.

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 8025$.

ZINC LME ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 2363$.

Traders can Exit long positions on rise to 2460$-25554-2765$ as the opportunity arises.

A breakout and close above 2730 can bring about a near term rise to 2900$ to 3227$.

Violation of stop loss and weekly closing below the same can bring about correction before making any other attempt to move higher.

TIN LME ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 25500$.

Fresh trading long positions can be undertaken above 27325$ with low of the day stop loss.

NICKLE LME ::

Exit long on rise to 23248-2472 to exit long position and re-enter long on rise and close above 25125

LEAD LME ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 2380$.

Expect higher range of 2548$-2553$ to be tested.

SPOT GOLD ::

Exit long on rise to 1379-1399 and sell with a stop loss of 1424.10$. Expect lower range of 1348$-1298$ to be tested.

SPOT SILVER ::

Exit long and sell on rise to 26.51$-27.23$-29.16$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect lower range of 25.3$-23.37$ to be tested.

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Exit long and sell on rise to 85.75$-86.98$ with a stop loss of 89$. Buy above 89$ with low of the day stop loss.

Buy at 83.65-80.3 with a stop loss 79$.

DONT MISS WATCH OUT THE VIEW FOR THE DAY AND MEDIUM TERM ON GOLD AND SILVER

2010-11-05T16:32:00.000+05:30

SPOT SILVER:-We had indicated to buy above 25.1, Silver crossed 25.1 and move to 26.34$.

Traders who managed to enter long trade had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 25.8-25.27 can be used for buying with a stop loss24.70$.

Expect Silver to attain 27.27$ at least and to an outer extent to 30$.

SPOT GOLD:-The stop loss for sell 1366$ was crossed and buy got triggered as mentioned in yesterday’s update.

The high registered yesterday was 1393$. Traders who managed to get into buy above 1366$ had the opportunity to benefit.

Corrective dip to 1377$-1361$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1366$.

Expect 1408$-1455$ to be tested.

The potential for Gold to move towards higher has increased. To an outer limit if all goes well on the upside then rise towards 1550$ cannot be ruled out in medium term.

Gold would run into trouble now only if 1325-1300$ is violated. Otherwise, we could see gold moving higher with intra-day correction to form higher top and higher bottom formation on its march towards 1550$ which could take time to happen. The view is true and applicable till support zone of 1325-$1300 is not violated.

NYMEX NATURAL GAS:-Corrective dip to 3.83$-3.77$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 3.20$

Resistance is at 4.19$. Whenever is crossed then add further for target of 5-5.20 at least and to an outer extent to 6.10$.

The retracement was up to 78.6% of the rise from 2.40$ to 6.10$.

The rise on breakout and close above 4.19$ can generate a potential for 6.88$ to 7.89$ in long term.

NYMEX CRUDE;-Hold long if any with a stop loss of with a broad stop loss of 83.5.

Expect higher range of 87.24$-89.15$ to be tested.

Corrective dip to 86.08$-85.33$ can be used for buying.

If the peak of 87.20$ is crossed on sustained basis then expect a rally towards 934$ at least and may be to an outer extent to 100$.

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY:-The volume registered on the panic fall to 19310 has been heavy on Wednesday 03/11/2010.  Incidentally, the volume bar high of that hour -9.30 pm that was at 19593. It open and quickly move above it and sustained above it as well.
As a result of which a rise was witnessed above 19783 which was the high from where Gold crashed on intra-day of 03/11/2010.
The next resistance of 19889 was crossed.
The general expectation as mentioned was Wave c of flat pattern was is in progress as mentioned.  It was expected to get completed but move up strong to make the low of 03/11/2010 as the bottom.
The next resistance is at 20028. The same is likely to get test.  The set up of RSI and MACD combination worked well yesterday resulting into a up move.
A correction of the rise from 19310 to 19917(whichever is high today before making attempts to move beyond 20028. The likely correction levels will be 19783 and 19688.The stop loss mentioned of 19783 was crossed therefore logically traders short should be out at that time itself.
Traders still short can cover the same on dip to 19776 or below as the opportunity arises.
Yesterday rise can prove to be one off erratic spike of the recent peak of 20028 is not crossed.
International price made new peak yesterday but the same was not seen on Indian MCX Gold prices. This was probably on the back of stronger INR.
Now, it looks that the recent lows range of 19625-19260 may not be violated.  If at all gold falls below the support zone of 19625-19260 then the fall can be severely sharper.
Assuming at this point that the support zone unlikely to get violated corrective dip to 19776-19635 can be used for buying.
The volatility is likely to be wider therefore the risk involved if stop loss getting violated is large therefore trader need to keep that in mind and trade. Alternatively, time the trade based on intra-day charts. Alternatively, wait for a fall below 19776 or 19635 and when it moves above 19776 or 19635 then buy with low below 19776 or 19635 to minimize risk.
If 20028 is crossed then expect Gold to move higher towards 20231 and 20488 to meet the upper channel line of the equidistant channel

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY;-As per the hourly chart, a minor retracement of the rise from 35936 to 38443 can be witnessed. The retracement levels are placed at 37515-37218 before making further attempts to move higher.n the daily chart update, we had indicated to buy above 37485 with low of the day stop loss. The high registered yesterday was 38433. Traders who managed to buy above 37485 had the opportunity to benefit.
Equidistant channel is The 1.618 of the 2 point retracement of the fall from 36937 to 34613 has been witnessed.  The 1.618 was at 38460 and high yesterday was 36645.
Corrective dip to 37723-37003 can be used for buying with a  stop loss of 35936. The volatility has increased therefore the logical stop loss as per daily chart has widen. Traders need to keep that is mind as we will not go by individual traders comfort stop loss. But have to go by some kind of trading higher bottom to define a stop loss. To reduce the risk, traders can wait for a fall below 37723 and 37003 and when it moves above 37723 or 37003 then buy with low of the day stop loss below 37723 or 37003. Regularly, the trade need to check the low registered during the day and the current price to reduce risk at the time of acting on the indicated buy.
The 3 point projection of 61.8% of the rise from 28901 to 36937 from 34613 is placed at 39580 which goes on to meet the upper channel line.

EXPECTATION OF SPOT SILVER FOR THE YEAR A HEAD 2011

2010-10-27T11:47:00.000+05:30

Summary:-

1) Silver prices are strong and having overcome the 2008 highs at $21.36/oz, the next upside target is likely to be $25/oz. This will represent something close to a 50% retracement of the fall to $3.53 from the high in January 1980 when, on the 18th of the month, Silver fixed at $49.45.
2)
Investment demand remains all important as it has in recent years been absorbing the supply surplus. There are some signs that investor demand is slowing.
3)
Even though the recovery after the 2008 recession has been much stronger and more robust than we thought it would be, we still feel there are downside risks.
4)
The debt legacy remains a “big unknown” and we feel it might have further negative consequences for the dollar that could lead to a dollar crisis.
5)
The economic and fiscal uncertainty suggests investors are likely to keep their interest in Silver for some time to come, but watch out in case that changes.

Introduction:-

The Silver market promises to be interesting over the next few years as there is likely to be a change-over in the primary driver of demand. In recent years investor buying has been the swing-factor that has driven prices higher, but demand for safe-havens is likely to wane in the years ahead. However, a few new applications for Silver have the potential to become swing factors. In the short term, the global economic situation remains uncertain and there may well be more turmoil in the financial markets before a more sustainable economic recovery gets going. In this case Silver prices have potential to rise further. The longer term outlook for Silver is also interesting with demand seeming likely to undergo a structural change as new technology (including Silver-zinc batteries) emerges, some of which could consume meaningful amounts of Silver. This new technology could substantially reduce Silver’s recent dependence on investor off-take to balance supply and demand. The prospects of this new technology are also likely to make investors even keener to own Silver, although at the moment it maybe too early for them to do so. The biggest risk to Silver’s bull market is if investors start to reduce their exposure to safe-haven investments. Silver has been in a supply surplus since 2003, so a lot of Silver has been bought by investors and now that prices are at levels not seen for 30 years there may be increased interest in taking profits if investors feel that economic growth will provide better investment opportunities elsewhere. The short-to-medium term outlook therefore is very much dependent on how long such investors feel the need to keep, or even increase, money invested in safe-havens. In turn, this will depend on how the global economy performs. New technology promises a new era for Silver, but between now and when this technology takes-off is likely to lead to some wild swings in Silver prices and hence produce numerous risks and trading opportunities.

INVESTMENT DEMAND;-
With Silver supply outpacing fabrication demand in recent years, investors’ off-take has been critical in driving the overall bull market and the emergence of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been central in facilitating this growth in investment demand. A slight concern is that although the combined holdings in the ETFs have continued to grow, the rate of increase has slowed in 2010. In 2008, holdings in the ETFs grew 39%, they climbed 49% in 2009, but on a pro-rata basis they are so far only showing growth of around 10% this year . The fact that redemptions up until now have been light is one thing, but new purchases have to be made if the supply surplus is going to be absorbed. If ETF buying does not pick-up soon we will start to get nervous, especially as Gold is setting fresh record highs.

More room for speculators:-
Although the level of buying by ETF investors has been slow, as discussed in the section above, funds have been active buyers. The net fund long Silver position dropped during the broad market correction in May and again in late July, but it has bounced back with vengeancein late August and throughout September. This run up in the net fund long position has happened while both longs and shorts have been adding to their exposure, which suggests increased volatility in the near term as one party is likely to have to throw the towel in. From the most recent dip in the net position, which was seen on 27th July, the longs have increased their exposure from 25,308 contracts to 66,066 contracts, a gain of 161%, while shorts have increased their exposure by 265%. However, compared to previous peaks in the net long position, the present position is still 30% below the 2005 peak. As such, there seems good potential for prices to rise if the
situation remains bullish

Supply from Scrap;-
Silver supply from scrap has been falling in recent years as the photo industry has used less Silver and therefore generated less scrap. However, scrap supply is expected to pick-up in 2010 as high prices both in dollar terms and in some key local currencies, such as the Indian rupee, have attracted more old scrap supply to the market. The dramatic rise in Gold jewellery recycling, which is a relatively new phenomenon in developed countries, is believed to have attracted a significant pick-up in old Silver jewellery and silverware recycling too.
With the prospect of higher Silver prices, we expect more scrap to come on to the market, especially from Asia, even though we suspect that there will be solid gains in developed markets too. In 2009, scrap supply fell 292 tonnes, but we believe it may climb 3% in 2010 and 4% in 2011, on the basis that higher prices will attract more old Silver from households. However, should prices start to spike higher, supply from old scrap, jewellery, silverware etc, could pick-up markedly as it did in 1980 when Silver spiked up towards $50/oz.

Government stocks continue to fall;-
In 2009, net government sales from stocks totalled 426 tonnes, which was down from 858 tonnes in 2008 and an average of 2,040 tonnes seen between 2001 and 2007. Sales were therefore 58% lower in 2009, than the recent average. An absence of government sales from China and India and lower sales from Russia accounted for the lower level of stock disposal. Given that India and Russia are buying Gold for their strategic reserves it seems they may be holding on to their Silver too. Likewise, although China might not be looking to diversify its reserves by buying Gold in the open market, it may well be accumulating bullion from domestic producers. Given the trends in official sales in Gold and Silver in 2010, we expect government sales from stocks to continue to decline in 2010 and 2011. It is now estimated that government stocks had fallen to 1,906 tonnes at the start of the year. Although accurate data on government holdings are hard to come by, if the figure now stands around 1,800 tonne level, then the large burden of 23,000 tonnes that was overhanging the market in 1997 has been severely depleted and is likely to limit sales going forward. For 2010 and 2011, we expect sales to drop around 200 tonnes.

Balance:-
The Silver market swung from a supply deficit to a surplus in 2003 and has remained in one since. What’s more, the surplus has been escalating, which makes it even more surprising that prices have performed the way they have. This has happened because strong investment demand has soaked up the surpluses. In recent years, the high level of ETF buying has managed to absorb the net of total supply less fabrication demand, even when fabrication demand has fallen. Another supply surplus will be seen in 2010, but that has not stopped prices rising further and with yet more ‘oversupply’ forecast for 2011, you have to wonder when investors will slow their buying, let alone start to liquidate what they already hold. Cumulatively, since 2003, the implied physical surplus is estimated at around 11,700 tonnes

Technical
After strong gains in 2009, Silver prices corrected in early 2010, but then ran higher again between February and May. Prices then consolidated in a symmetrical triangle until late-August when they broke higher. The count on the triangle was for a $2.70/oz move and a target of $21.50/oz which has now been reached. If you draw a line along the tops since February 2009, then that line is now around $24.80/oz, which has been hit, but prices have since pull back from that line, suggesting it is a valid resistance line. In the year ahead it would not besurprising to see prices extend into the $25-$27/oz range. This is approximately the area that corresponds to a 50% retracement of the fall back from the historic highs near $50/oz, in 1980. If prices were to continue to rise strongly, the 61.8% retracement level would be around the $32.25/oz level.

Conclusion and Forecast
The situation in Silver remains very interesting in that the market continues to be in a supply surplus but prices are rising strongly. On the surface, the rally in Silver looks quite vulnerable but the economic and fiscal outlooks suggest there is still room to remain bullish and there are also some exciting potential developments in industrial demand, namely solar cells and Silver-zinc batteries. The time-line of various events is therefore going to be all important. If sustainable economic growth is seen sooner rather than later, then there is likely to be significant investor long liquidation that is likely to lead to a tumble in prices. However, while concerns over economic recovery remain in place then the markets are likely to continue to be concerned about governments’ fiscal policies, their debt burden and methods they will use to try to correct the economic malaise. If the economic uncertainty drags on long enough for demand from new technology to become meaningful then Silver prices could stay up in a higher trading range.
Investors’ interest will remain critical. Demand from ETF investors has slowed so far in 2010 and that is a worry as continued high investor off-take is needed to absorb the supply surplus. Given the economic uncertainty, the potential for more quantitative easing and concerns over the dollar, we would not be surprised to see investor demand pick-up again and in that case we could see Silver’s rally continue. However, if investor interest remains subdued then it will likely make investors nervous and in turn that would increase the risk of a correction.In the near term, there is a risk of a deeper correction in equities and industrial metals as the rebounds in these seem to have run ahead of the economic fundamentals. A correction in equities and industrial commodities would likely cause a pull back in Silver prices too. However, we think the secondary reaction would see more safe-haven buying, especially if another period of economic weakness forced the US to take steps that further weakened the dollar.
Overall we think the longer term outlook for Silver has improved as new technology looks set to provide new areas of significant consumption, which in turn is likely to see Silver prices trade at a higher price. In the short-to-medium term we feel that the economic climate will keep safe-haven demand strong and that could see prices rally further - we would not be surprised to see $27/oz at some stage. However, Silver could experience some very volatile conditions before the new industrial applications become a reality, if investors feel confident enough to liquidate their safe-haven positions. In this case prices could drop sharply and a return to around the $17.00/oz level would not be surprising

WATCH OUT;- SILVER WILL BE OUTPERFORMER ON BOTH SIDES FOR THE YEAR 2011(IT WILL FALL DRASTICALLY AND RISE DRASTICALLY)WE MAY SEE DAILY MOVES OF 50-1$ MOVES BUT UNDER TONE LOOKS HIGHLY BULLISH FOR MCX TGTS OF 45000-50000 IF 28000 IS UNDISTURBED MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN(9845353951) FROM TRADE COM JOIN US TO ROCK EVERY DAY IN MCX AND COMEX

SPOT GOLD AND SILVER EXPECTATION FOR THE YEAR 2011

2010-10-27T11:34:00.000+05:30

INTRODUCTION :-

So far 2010 has been an interesting year as generally Gold prices have continued to trend higher and have set fresh record highs in the process. However, equities, bonds and base metals, have performed strongly too. At some stage we expect equities and base metals to move in an opposite direction to Gold. Indeed we feel Gold is reflecting the economic and financial situation more accurately than the others. There are numerous reasons to be bullish for equities and industrial commodities and continued fund interest for the long term is one such reason. Fundamental supply concerns are another. However, can equities and industrial metals out run another economic slow down? It seems as though burgeoning budget deficits will lead to austerity measures in Europe, restrictions on property speculation in China will slow growth and QE in the US will eventually debase the dollar. We think there is still a high risk of another broad market correction, probably boosting demand for safe-haven investments. Such a scenario is also likely to prompt more QE, risking debasement of the dollar and reducing confidence in fiat currencies. This is likely to boost demand for bullion and other items with intrinsic value. Gold’s moves seem measured and determined and the rally does not yet look like a bubble.

GOLD;- TREND CHANGER:-Since the rally in Gold started in 2001, Gold prices have climbed on the back of a host of issues including: the weaker dollar, increased geopolitical risk, higher oil prices, portfolio diversification, producer dehedging, falling mine production and, until recently, reliable and resilient Asian jewellery demand. However, some of these bullish underlying trends are now changing, for example producer dehedging has all but run its course, Gold production is climbing again, jewellery demand has fallen sharply and oil prices are relatively low. The one factor that has turned more positive for Gold is the reduction in official sector sales and the possibility that this sector might turn a net buyer. On balance the changes are negative for Gold’s fundamentals. However, one thing that has not changed is investors’ demand for Gold. The financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis have increased the demand for safe-haven investments.

Given the deteriorating fundamentals, where supply is increasing and fabrication demand is falling, the bull market in Gold is in the hands of investors. In 2009, Gold supply was 4,287 tonnes, according to GFMS Ltd, and total fabrication demand plus de-hedging, totalled 2,671 tonnes. This meant that, excluding investor demand, the market was in a surplus of 1,616 tonnes. So while investors’ appetite is strong enough to absorb this surplus, the rally in Gold can continue. Going forward we feel one of the main driving influences will be the need, or otherwise, for more QE as this is likely to determine the level of confidence in fiat currencies. Indeed we feel the final stages of the bull market will happen as Gold becomes more monetised and people view Gold as the ‘must-have’ alternative to fiat currencies. As the Fed contemplates more QE there is potential for considerably more investment buying and, just as any rally can ‘run away’ on the upside, it is possible investment demand could do the same, especially given the size of the financial market and the Gold market’s small size in relationship to it. However, just as any rally can ‘go exponential’, at some stage it inevitably corrects - perhaps sharply. With large holdings of Gold in ETFs, futures, bars and coins, the market will rightly be nervous and on the look out for signs of change.

In summary, the big picture outlook remains bullish in the medium term. Although there seems to be a degree of optimism that the worst is over and that an economic recovery is underway (albeit slower than originally thought), we are not so sure. Indeed, with Gold prices setting record highs there are obviously others who feel differently and we would be in that camp. Overall, we fear that the rebound off the 2009 lows may have run its course and it may be in the process of stalling. The measures governments have taken over the past two years have bought some time, but the legacy of their actions are likely to have created even bigger global problems and these could emerge if markets get more worried about the level of debt. If people and creditors start to lose faith in the dollar and other hard currencies, then a dollar crisis could unfold and that would likely impact all markets, creating further turmoil, uncertainty and fear in the process, all of which is likely to boost the appeal of Gold

FACTORS DRIVING GOLD PRICES:-

The dollar:- – As the financial crisis took hold in mid-2008, the dollar found some support as safe-haven buying into US Treasuries led to dollar buying too. However, the irony is that the US’s reliance on QE in effect threatens to debase the dollar, turning it even more into a fiat currency. Indeed, there is a fear that debt levels could get so high that governments’ only hope of repaying the debt would be to allow inflation to reduce its value. When inflation takes off in a country the currency weakens as it devalues against other currencies. However, when two or more currencies devalue at the same time their exchange rates may not register much change, but the buying power of these currencies is reduced. This is one reason why we expect Gold prices to continue to rise. As Europe, Japan and the US take measures, such as QE, to underpin their economic growth and fend off deflation, they risk debasing their currencies, so it is not surprising that Gold prices have been rising across these currencies. Because competitive devaluation is impacting many of the currencies that make up the dollar index (which includes the euro, the yen, the pound, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona) the extent of weakness in the dollar might not be showing up in the index. However, a look at the dollar vs the Swiss franc, clearly shows the down trend in the dollar continues, see chart opposite. During the sovereign debt scares in Europe in the first half 2010, the inverse relationship between the dollar and Gold has been sporadic with both often rising at the same time, which highlights both are seen as safe-havens. However, more recently the dollar has been falling and Gold has been rising.

Deflation - Inflation :-- At present, the prospects of deflation seem to be a bigger cause for concern than inflation, although the inflation / deflation risk has now become more of a geographical issue. Asia and rapidly developing economies face inflation, while developed economies are worried about deflation and with interest rates already as low as they can be, governments are using QE in an attempt to avoid deflation. As QE debases a currency, we feel Gold will remain in demand even during a period of deflation. One argument against strong Gold prices during periods of deflation is that deflation is likely to see more demand for US Treasuries and in turn that is likely to underpin the dollar; but as we have already experienced the dollar and Gold can rise in tandem. Once sustainable economic growth is seen again, we expect inflation to take hold in the West, either as governments allow it to, in an effort to reduce the value of their debt mountains, or because they end up being slow to tighten monetary policy. This may happen if growth returns while unemployment remains high, or the housing market remains fragile. So even though inflation is unlikely to be an issue in the West in the medium term, it is a longer term threat, especially given all the QE.

Stagflation – Given there is a degree of unknown consequences in the measures central banks are applying in their effort to prompt growth and avoid deflation, there is a risk that they could be creating the conditions for stagflation. Indeed although official inflation in the West is low, asset prices are already rising strongly and they are not doing so on the back of a strong pick-up in demand. So it would appear that one of the consequences of QE is that liquidity is pumping into equity and commodity markets and is chasing prices higher. As such, we are getting high prices, but little economic growth and as growth remains subdued unemployment is remains high. In this situation governments are likely to refrain from raising interest rates and in turn that is likely to lead to inflation.

Central Bank Official Sales – For many years central banks have been net sellers of Gold but that may now be about to change. As the first year of the third Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA-III), which allows for sales of 400 tonnes of Gold per annum, comes to an end, it appears as though EU central banks have reported sales of less than 3 tonnes; the IMF has sold 222 tonnes to central banks (India 200 tonnes, Mauritius 2 tonnes, Sri Lanka 10 tonnes and Bangladesh 10 tonnes) and 88.3 tonnes on the open the market, so collectively official sales look to be in order of some 333 tonnes. Outside their acceptance of IMF sales, European central banks would appear to have had a significant change of heart as their sales have been minimal whereas under CBGA-II annual sales averaged 377 tonnes. Other countries have been adding to their Gold reserves; between January and the end of April IMF data shows official holdings increased 43 tonnes, with Russia and Venezuela the two main buyers. Other reports also suggest that Russia has continued to build up its Gold reserves and at the end of July reportedly held some 726 tonnes, up 13.6 percent so far this year. With limited IMF sales next year, (they still have an estimated 92.7 tonnes to sell) and with European central banks perhaps refraining from selling, we would not be surprised to see central banks become net buyers in 2011. As of the end of July 2010, central banks still held 30,520 tonnes of Gold – this is worth remembering when we worry about sovereign debt as if the situation did become critical then central banks could turn to their Gold reserves to bail themselves out. Note how the Bank of International Settlements, BIS, completed a 346 tonne Gold swap in July with various commercial banks, whereby it lent them money and took Gold as collateral.

Central Bank diversification;-

Although the US dollar is likely to remain the World’s reserve currency for the foreseeable future, there are definite moves afoot by some countries to diversify their reserves. Leading the move is China, which has cut its holdings of US Treasuries and is buying Japanese bonds. At the end of June, China held $843.7 billion of US debt, down from the $938.3 billion peak seen in September 2009. China bought the equivalent of $20 billion worth of Japanese debt in H1’10 and officials suggest China may buy debt from its other Asian trading partners. China has often said that it is not looking to diversify into Goldas the Gold market is too small, however they could increase their holdings by buying a proportion of the country’s mine output. Even if China does not increase its Gold reserves, it does look as though other Asia countries are doing so and we would expect this trend to continue and perhaps spread to the oil producers too. China, Japan and Saudi Arabia only have 2% to 3% of their reserves in Gold compared to 62% in the Euro area.

Investment demand:-
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) have become a highly popular investment vehicle and are used across the spectrum of the investment community from retail investors, pension funds, to hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds. Interestingly as the chart shows, there have been few instances of large redemptions and the overall trend in the amount of metal held in the ETFs has been up. The financial crisis in 2008 saw a rapid increase in the size of the ETFs as did the sovereign debt crisis early this year. The amount of Gold held peaked in mid-July 2010 at 2,095 tonnes, redemptions during the recent rally in equities saw holdings drop to 2,046 tonnes, but then as fears rose in early August about a possible double-dip recession and the dollar started to weaken in September, the buying returned and holdings set a new peak at 2,106 tonnes. Investor interest is not just confined to ETFs, in recent years there have been unprecedented levels of investment in Gold bars and coins. In 2008, retail investment demand in Europe and North America jumped to 327 tonnes and climbed to 414 tonnes in 2009. By comparison the average level of buying in 2006 and 2007 was 50 tonnes. In early 2010, demand slipped as the fear factor in the markets subsided, but it picked up again once the sovereign debt crisis escalated. Sales of American Gold Eagle coins averaged 82,875 oz in the first four months of 2010, they jumped to 190,000 oz in May and averaged 164,500 oz in May, June and July, before dropping back to 41,500 oz in August.At some stage, once recovery is underway and the threat of inflation subsides, investors are likely to reduce their exposure to Gold in all forms and when that happens the Gold price is likely to correct significantly. However, this is unlikely to be an issue in the medium term as the risks of double-dipped recession, dollar devaluation and inflation, are still present.

The Futures market;-

The net long fund position has been climbing steeply since 20th July 2010 when the position stood at 178,307 contracts, it has since climbed 44% to 257,649 contracts as of late September. The downward sloping line joining previous peaks shows that the net long fund position has broken higher again. The two previous highs where at 244,725 contracts in late June 2010 and 262,331 contracts on 24th November 2009. What is noteworthy is that recent periods of long liquidation have not been particularly severe with the net fund position only dropping to around 170,000 contracts, avoiding the steep declines seen in early years of the bull market when the net fund long position would drop to around the 50,000 contracts. We think the market may be able to sustain an even larger fund long position as there is still a high chance that more QE will be seen and in turn that is likely to see more competitive currency devaluation.

Technical Outlook:-

Gold’s bull run continues, prices have just set new highs at around $1,387/oz and all thoughts are now on where the next peak is likely to be. This weekly chart shows the up trend line is strong and is shadowed by the 40 week moving average. However, the stochastic indicators, having been very strong, now look tired and therefore some consolidation seems likely in the short term. This would tie in with the spike up through the overhead resistance line connecting the 2008 and late-2009 peaks at around $1,322/oz – as such, we would not be surprised to see some consolidation in the $1,320-$1,360/oz range for a while. Since October 2008, the up trend line has provided support so over the medium term we would look for dips to run into support around the up trend line, which is last at around $1,215/oz and was last touched in late July. Further support should be available lower down at the 40 week moving average level around $1,190/oz. If a significant sell-off got underway (while the overall bullish picture remained intact), then we would expect solid support around the $1,050-$1,100/oz level. As for where the next peak is likely to lie, we would point to $1,440/oz as this is where the upper resistance line is currently at. Projecting that line forward would suggest prices could be up around $1,620/oz in twelve months time. As such, in the year ahead, we would be looking for a trading range between $1,050-$1,600/oz

Forecast & Conclusion;-
There are a multitude of factors influencing the Gold price, but one of the main reasons driving the bull market is all the uncertainty over the economic recovery and the legacy of the massive governments’ stimulus packages and bailouts mainly paid for with borrowed and printedmoney. At present this is reflected by the weakening dollar. So far despite all the governments’ efforts the recoveries in the US and Europe look fragile and are likely to need more government support in the months ahead. There is already talk that the Fed may be looking to inject another trillion dollars of QE. One of the concerns is that the actions being taken are debasing the dollar and encouraging competitive currency devaluation. As former ‘hard’ currencies tend towards losing value, faith in these fiat currencies is falling and as a result people are swapping out of fiat currencies and into Gold and other commodities with intrinsic value. Indeed this might be a reason why industrial metals are doing well even when the economic outlook is uncertain.

Overall, we do not think we are near the peak in Gold yet as we think the world’s financial problems are not over. However, the higher the Gold price goes the more volatile trading is likely to become and the more nervous investors and funds are likely to be. Another broad market sell-off could lead to a sell-off in Gold – possibly down to the $1,050/oz area, but again the increased fear of the consequences of another broad based sell-off could then see Gold prices shoot higher – indeed Gold could still become a bubble, either because of a deterioration in the economic, financial and fiscal climate, or because recovery gets going and that prompts fears of inflation as the governments around the world delay the start of monetary tightening.
We fondly hope that, at some stage, the problems facing the global economy (and the West in particular) will be solved and normality will return. When that process begins, safe-haven assets are likely to be sold, producers are likely, once again, to increase hedge selling and a good deal of the stock that has built up in allocated accounts at banks and in ETFs may flood back into the market. One can imagine what prices will do under such circumstances. There may well be some scares along the way that the end of the bull market is unfolding and sharp sell-offs are likely to be seen, but overall until robust private sector sustainable growth is seen we expect Gold’s bull market to continue. In the months ahead we expect increased volatility in Gold prices. Once real confidence returns and sustainable economic growth looks in place to the extent that governments’ finances will improve, we would expect rotation out of safe-havens and more appetite for risk, mainly through equities. Given that there are still some concerns over the possibility of a doubled dipped recession, that unemployment remains stubbornly high and house prices are still depressed, and there is still talk of more QE, we feel it is too early to think the worst maybe behind us. If we are in the eye of the financial storm then the next part of the storm may well be the one that leads to the end-spike up in Gold prices. There seems little point forecasting how high prices might go but we would not be surprised to see prices trading in the $1,500/oz -1,600/oz range, possibly spiking higher. That said, we would also think there is a chance that prices could be trading well below current levels in twelve months time

WATCH OUT;- 2011 WILL BE MORE VOLATILE YEAR A HEAD WITH MORE UPS AND DOWN, STAY WITH US TO RIDE THE BULL AND BEAR MOVES MARKET EDITOR NITESH JAIN(9845353951) FROM TRADE COM JOIN US TO ROCK EVERY DAY IN MCX AND COMEX

MCX & COMEX TECHNICAL REPORT FOR 2ND SEPTEMBER 2010

2010-09-02T14:16:00.001+05:30

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Exit long positions on rise to 1247-1252-1264$ as the opportunity arises, alternatively hold long positions with a stop loss of 1230$

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 19.20$ and use rise to 19.49$-19.77$ to take profit.

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Volatility band is now 76$-70$.
Move above 76$ can bring about some impulsion.
A breakdown below 70$ can bring about a slump.

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 18900 and use rise to 19035-19115 to exit long positions.
Weaker price to 18912-18859 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 18823 for newer positions.
Traders will to take chance can sell on the rise to 19035-19115 with a stop loss of 19158.
The trend is up with intra-day day or one or two days of sideways to corrective move to the lower range of 18912-18709 can be tested before a recovery again to move higher.
The peak is placed at 19285. Next round of major rise can come if the close is above 19285. Till then broadly exit long on the rise and take profit from current price to 19285 as the opportunity arises.

MCX VIEWS ::

Mcx Gold Oct: Resistance levels are seen at 19175 followed by 19220 to cap up moves for a lower towards 18960. A break above 19280 could negate this view.
S1 18930 S2 18850 R1 19070 R2 19150

Mcx Silver Dec: Support levels are seen at 30510 followed by 30460 to hold for a rise towards 31050 or even higher to 31400.A break below 30350 could cause doubt about this view.
S1 30580 S2 30400 R1 30920 R2 31100

Mcx Copper Nov: Support levels are seen at 353 followed by 351. Favored view is to buy on dips to 352 levels to hold for a rise towards 366.A break below 347 could negate this view.
S1 354 S2 350 R1 361 R2 365

Mcx Crude Sept: Dip to 3435-3420 to hold for move up toward 3555-3570. Unexpected fall below 3390 to dent bullish view.
S1 3455 S2 3415 R1 3525 R2 3565

MCX Nickel Sept: Supports at 987 followed by 978 levels now. Favored view expects supports here to hold for a test of 1018 or even higher to 1033 level now.
S1 987 S2 975 R1 1007 R2 1018

MCX Zinc Sept: Support at 99.30 followed by 98.70 levels now. Favored view expects supports here to hold for a test of 102.60 or even higher to 103.90 level now.
S1 99.40 S2 98.40 R1 101.20 R2 102.20

MCX Lead Sept: Supports at 98.30 followed by 97.8 levels now. Favored view expects supports here to hold for a test of 100.30 or even higher to 102 level now.
S1 98.50 S2 97.50 R1 100.30 R2 101.30

MCX Nat Gas Sept: consolidated in a range of 175-185.Favored view is to buy on dips to 176 for a rise towards 185. A break below 173 can drag down sharply to 165 levels.
S1 175 S2 171 R1 181 R2 185

ENJOY TRADING !!!!

MCX & COMEX TECHNICAL REPORT FOR 1ST SEPTEMBER 2010

2010-09-01T11:20:00.000+05:30

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Corrective dip to 1242$-1234$ can be used for buying with a stop loss of 1230$.
Sell on fall below 1230$ with high of the day stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Seller stop loss violated and trend line breakout seems to getting confirmed.
Corrective dip to 19.17$-18.95$ can be used for buying. Expect higher range of 19.56$-20.17$.
Sell on fall below 18.78$

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 3.69$
Expect higher range of 3.89$-4.04$ to be tested.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Exit long and sell on rise to 72.7-73.9 with a stop loss of 74.75$.
Buy above 75.60$. Support is at 70.70$. Expect sharper fall below 70.7$

GOLD MCX :: TRADING STRATEGY ::

Buy was triggered above 19000 and moved up to 19143.
Traders who managed to buy above 19000 had the opportunity to benefit.
Corrective dip to 19070-18993 can be used for buying.
Expect profit booking pressure around the peak of 19285.
Profit booking can be considered on rise to 19220-19447 range as the opportunity arises.
The red color bar shows that Gold has entered into the overbought zone therefore profit booking pressure at higher levels range could be seen. As Gold gets into overbought zone, we could see two things happening, either acceleration on the rise or reversal to put a halt to the sharp rise.

SILVER DECEMBER MCX :: TRADING STRATEGY ::

The buy above 30700 was indicated and the same got triggered. Traders who managed to buy above 30700 benefited as the high registered yesterday was 30964.
Corrective dip to 30682-30439 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 30166.
Expect higher range of 31152-31865 to be tested.
The red color bar indicates that RSI has got into overbought zone which indicates that we could either see acceleration in the direction of the uptrend or a reversal to halt the move on the back of profit booking. But since, we have see a breakout above the earlier peak, the momentum could be maintained with intra-day volatility.

MCX VIEWS ::

MCX Gold Oct: Rise above 19060 opened the upside for 19260. Support will be seen at 19110
followed by 19050.Unexpected fall below 19015 could damage the bullish picture
S1 19065 S2 18985 R1 19205 R2 19285

MCX Silver Dec: Supports are at 30710 followed by 30390. Ideally, supports to hold for initial resistance at 31030 followed by stronger resistance at 31510
S1 30715 S2 30535 R1 31055 R2 31235

MCX Copper Nov: Headed to 352 or even higher to 354 or maximum 356. Supports are at 348 followed by 346
S1 346 S2 342 R1 355 R2 358

MCX Crude Sep: Failure to hold support at 3485 has taken prices lower. Resistance at 3470 followed by 3490 should now cap for 3375 levels or even lower.
S1 3353 S2 3310 R1 3490 R2 3570

MCX Lead Sep: Supports at 95.25 / 95.70 is expected to hold dips for a push higher towards 99.20
S1 95.75 S2 94.75 R1 97.85 R2 98.85

MCX Zinc Sep: Support at 96.10 followed by 95.50 to hold for a rise towards 98.70
S1 96.45 S2 95.45 R1 98.85 R2 99.85

MCX Nickel Sep: Supports at 964-969 to hold now for 1003 levels
S1 970 S2 958 R1 995 R2 1007

MCX NG Sep: while 184 holds, look for a strong pullback towards 192
S1 179 S2 175 R1 185 R2 189

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2010-06-16T10:42:00.000+05:30

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 15TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-15T15:10:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 15TH JUNE 2010 ::

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ::

Sell on rise to 18591-18722 with a stop loss of 18844.

Sell further on fall below 18460 with high of the day stop loss.

Lower range of 18432-18142 can be tested.

SILVER MCX TRADING STRATEGY ::

Sell on rise to 29200-29313 with a stop loss of 29570.

Sell on fall below 28753 with high of the day stop loss.

Buy on rise and close above 29570 with low of the day stop loss.

SPOT GOLD ::

A breakout and close above 1253$ can bring about a big rally further.

Upside can be capped to 1231$-1249$.

Sell on rise to 1231$ with a stop loss of 1235$.

Sell further on fall below 1215$.

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short positions with a stop loss of 76.30.

Sell on fall below 73.20$ with high of the day stop loss.

On rise above 76.30$, expect further up move towards 78$

SPOT SILVER ::

A breakout and close above 18.7$ can bring about a rally subsequently.

Sell further on fall below 17.8$ with high of the day stop loss.

Sell on rise to 18.29$-18.42$ with a stop loss of 18.7$.

MCX EXPECTATIONS ::

MCX Gold Aug: As expected resistance is being noticed in 18720-18795 zone. While this zone caps, can look for decline toward 18415 or even lower to 18265
S1 18490 S2 18410 R1 18630 R2 18710

MCX Silver July:Support at 28760/28790 followed by critical support at 28570. Fall below 28555 could damage bullish picture.
S1 28955 S2 28775 R1 29295 R2 29475

MCX Copper June: Expected resistance seen near trend line resistance at 311-312. Corrective dip to 300 or even lower to 295 look likely while 310 cap.
S1 304 S2 300 R1 311 R2 315

MCX CrudeOil June: The range between 3435-3515 now with a mild bullish bias. Break above could test 3575 on the upside.Unexpected break below 3400 to dent our bullish expectations.
S1 3450 S2 3410 R1 3520 R2 3560

MCX Zinc June: As expected saw test 83.00 level. Dip to 81.50 to find support again for 83.50-84.00 level again. Only fall below 80.70 to dent bullish view.
S1 82 S2 81 R1 83.70 R2 84.70

MCX Lead June: Moved above 79 against our expectation. Further move to 80.75-81 look likely while above 78.00.Subsequently sharp fall toward 76 can be anticipated.
S1 78.45 S2 77.45 R1 80.25 R2 81.25

MCX Nickel June: As expected saw test of 940 level. While 948-955 cap look for fall toward 910 level now.
S1 928 S2 916 R1 948 R2 960

MCX NG June: Support at 227-228 to hold for rally toward 236 followed by 241 level now.
S1 228 S2 224 R1 236 R2 238

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 14TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-14T13:57:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 14TH JUNE 2010 ::

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

A breakout and close above 1253$ can bring about a big rally further.

Upside can be capped to 1232$-1247$.

Sell further on fall below 1215$.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

A breakout and close above 18.7$ can bring about a rally subsequently.

Sell further on fall below 17.8$ with high of the day stop loss.

NYMEX LIGHT CRUDE OIL ::

Exit long positions on rise to 74.2-75.2 as the opportunity arises. Sell on rise to 74.2-75.2 with a stop loss of 76.30.

Expect lower range of 72.81$-70.43$ to be tested.

GOLD MCX AUGUST :: TRADING STRATEGY ::

A recovery was seen on Friday. Resistance will be at 18798-18844-18859.

If the resistance is crossed then expect a rise towards 19098.

Cover short positions if any on dip to 18709 or below as the opportunity arises.

Expect further weakness on fall below 18550.

Sell further on fall below 18550 with high of the day stop loss.

Intra-day traders can wait for a rise above 18859 and when it falls below 18859 then sell with high above 18859 as the stop loss.

Volatility between 19198 and 18555 is likely to be seen but a further breakdown below 18550.

SILVER MCX JULY :: TRADING STRATEGY ::

Sell on fall below 28753 with high of the day stop loss.

Buy on rise and close above 29570 with low of the day stop loss.

MCX EXPECTATIONS ::

MCX Gold Aug: Dips to 18610-18655 can be bought s/l 18550 target 18855-18885.
S1 18665 S2 18585 R1 18805 R2 18885

MCX Silver July: Supports are at 29135 followed by 28925. Supports expected to hold for a test of 30015.
S1 29010 S2 28830 R1 29350 R2 29530

MCX Copper June: As expected 291 held well and a possible target at 303.95 has also been met. Stronger resistance can be seen at 313-314 levels form where a corrective decline can be seen.
S1 300 S2 296 R1 307 R2 311

MCX CrudeOil June: While 3548 followed by 3573 caps we can expect consolidation in the 3395-3535 range or decline to 3255 level
S1 3445 S2 3405 R1 3515 R2 3555

MCX Zinc June: Supports at 79-80 to hold for a rise towards 83-84 levels
S1 80 S2 79 R1 82 R2 83

MCX Lead June: While 80-81 caps look for a decline towards 77 levels now.
S1 77.75 S2 76.75 R1 80.50 R2 81.50

MCX Nickel June: While 905 hold look for a rise towards 935 or even higher towards 945 levels now.
S1 910 S2 897 R1 930 R2 940

MCX NG June: While 220 holds look for a move to 231 levels and ultimately testing 243-245
S1 221 S2 217 R1 229 R2 231

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JUST CHECK DAY HIGH IN SPOT GOLD

2010-06-11T19:16:00.001+05:30

JUST CHECK DAY HIGH IN SPOT GOLD... AND VIEW GIVEN BY US.. 1229 DAY HIGH... CMP 1220 .. THOSE WHO SOLD BENEFITTED... TRACK US.. ENJOY...

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 11TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-11T14:30:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 11TH JUNE 2010 ::

MCX Gold Aug: As expected a downward correction materialised. Rallies to 18720-18735 should find strong resistance now
for a decline towards 18310-18340 levels .Unexpected rise above 18825-18840 to reinforce bullish expectations.
S1 18530 S2 18450 R1 18670 R2 18750

MCX Silver July: As expected dips to 28650-28700 found good support. Any dips to 28805 to find good support for a break
above 29425 targeting 29805. S1 29030 S2 28850 R1 29370 R2 29550

MCX Copper June: Expected support was seen near 291-293 and moved up to 303 level. While 305 caps can expect a decline
to 294-295 for the day . S1 294 S2 290 R1 301 R2 305

MCX CrudeOil June: As expected the break above 3540 took prices higher towards our favored target at 3615. Corrective
dips could be held near 3510-3515 levels for a move towards 3610 or even higher towards 3620.
S1 3510 S2 3470 R1 3580 R2 3620

MCX Zinc June: Supports near 79-80 expected to hold for a move higher towards 84-85 levels now .
S1 79.80 S2 78.80 R1 81.60 R2 82.60

MCX Lead June: Any dip to 76-77 expected to find support for move toward 81 followed by 82.50 .
S1 77.35 S2 76.35 R1 79 R2 80

MCX Nickel June: Consolidation between 873 and 910 could take place before rise higher toward 948 level .
S1 878 S2 866 R1 898 R2 910

MCX NG June: As expected we saw move towards 215. Resistances are at 223 now. Only a rise above 228 could hint
at bullish strength. S1 215 S2 211 R1 221 R2 225

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ::

The negative divergence come into immediate existence as the price movement fails to sustain because MACD was lower than its peak as price made new high. MACD triggered its average for sell again.

We had indicated to sell in the range of 18827-18958. The high registered yesterday was 18844. Traders who managed to sell had the opportunity to benefit as Gold fell to a low of 18555 subsequently.

Sell on rise to 18655-18754 with a stop loss 18844.

Expect lower range of 18465-18176.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY ::

Cover short positions at current price or on dip to 29110-28800 as the opportunity arises.

Sell on fall below 28753 with high of the day stop loss.

Buy on rise and close above 29570 with low of the day stop loss.

SPOT GOLD ::

Use rise to 1221-1229 to sell with a stop loss of 1234.

A breakout and close above 1253$ can bring about a big rally further.

Upside can be capped to 1229-1248$.

Red Color Trend Line and Blue color ascending trend line to offer support.

The higher bottom of 1196$ can bring about a big crack in the near term in Gold.

Overall volatility in the band of 1252$-1196$ in the immediate near term can be expected

SPOT SILVER ::

A breakout and close above 18.7$ can bring about a rally subsequently.

Cover short positions at 18.14$-17.87$ as the opportunity arises.

Sell further on fall below 17.8$ with high of the day stop loss.

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Traders can hold long position with a stop loss of 73.7$ and look for rise to 76.6$-79.19$ to exit.

ALERT ::

Chinese Inflation rises in the quickest pace in 19 months. CPI rises 3.1% (Forecast 3%). Tightening measures likely.China to keep high alert on Eurozone crisis. Euro drifts lower from 5 day peak.

ALERT ::

China on holiday from june 14-16th. (dragon boat festival). for both rubber and base metals, margins have been raised from 7% to 10%. trading limits from 5% to 7%

MARKET TALK :: GOLD SPOT ::

Bearish prospects:-

Following yesterday’s plunge from 1233 levels to 1214.65, the bearish momentum may have slowed down However, initial attempts to rise may invite follow through selling interest esp from the 1222 region, but may not strengthen. A direct fall below 1212 would however, trigger further long liquidation, possibly targeting 1205.

Bullish prospects: (Favoured):-Dips to 1219 would be most ideal entry level for a
move towards 1227.

Medium Term Prospects:-
A close above 1254 is required before launching on to
the 1330 view, with intermediate pause likely in the
1275-80 region. Favoured view continues to remain
positive

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 10TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-10T13:51:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 10TH JUNE 2010 ::

MCX Gold Aug: As expected saw target at 18980 being met. Corrective decline from there could see support in 18660-18675 zone.
Daily close below 18660 could drag price even lower.S1 18720 S2 18640 R1 18860 R2 18940

MCX Silver July: Support at 29000 could hold for rise toward 29645. This is favored view. Unexpected fall below 28890 to dent bullish
expectation. S1 29060 S2 28880 R1 29400 R2 29560

MCX Copper June: Support seen at 296-297, failing which another round of consolidation or test of recent low look likely. However,
if support hold in 294-296 zone, expect rally to continue higher toward 313-315 level. S1 292.50 S2 288.50 R1 299.50 R2 303.50

MCX Zinc June: Corrective dip expected toward 80.75 followed by 79.50. Ideally, support to cushion dip for push higher toward 85 level.
Unexpected close below support at 79.50 could dent bullish expectation. S1 81 S2 80 R1 83 R2 84

MCX Lead June: Support at 76.70 followed by 75.00. Failure to hold support to drag price lower again below recent low.S1 77 S2 76 R1 79 R2 80

MCX Nickel June: Dip to 882 followed by 875 to hold for rally toward 930-935. This is favored view. Fall below 860 to cause doubt on view
S1 887 S2 875 R1 909 R2 919

MCX NG June: As expected saw a fall towards 219. Further dip to 215 looks likely while 227 caps AND MOVE HIGHER. S1 220 S2 218 R1 236 R2 242

MCX SILVER TRADERS STRATEGY ::

Exit long positions on the rise to 29169-29333 as the opportunity arises.

Re-enter long on rise and close above 29600.

Traders can take chances to sell on rise to 29169-29333 with a stop loss of 29600 or wait for a breakout to trade long

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ::

Exit long positions on rise to 18827-18958 as the opportunity arises.

Sell on rise to 18827-18958 with a stop loss of 19000.

Buy above 19000 with low of the day stop loss.

A sideways volatility under 19200 is likely to be seen.

Expect lower range of 18656-18354 can be tested.

The level of 18260 holds the key from long term angle. The wide volatility can be 19000-18200.

SPOT GOLD ::

Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 1252 with low of the day stop loss.

Use rise to 1230-1239 to exit long positions and take profit.

SPOT SILVER ::

A breakout and close above 18.7$ can bring about a rally subsequently.

Resistance will be at 18.16$-18.25$.

Lower range can be TESTED 17.98$-17.71$

COPPER LME ::

A trend line breakdown can be seen. A 3 Buddha Pattern is visible along with the breakdown.

Expect the slide towards the projection shown on the chart towards 5381$.

Sell on fall below 6040$.

Resistance will be at 6480$-6658$.

Sell on rise to the resistance with a stop loss of 7039$. Alternatively, try to sell on rise as near the stop loss to minimize risk.

The 14 week RSI as shown is the chart is falling and could move towards the 30 mark from current level of 37.94

ZINC LME ::

The low channel line has been tested.

A recovery candle has been witnessed this week.

If the low registered of 1570$ is not violated and close as higher as possible from current level of 1765$ then we could see that the low of 1570$ as the important near term bottom.

Expect a rise towards 1935$ at least in the immediate near term.

Traders can take chance to go long with a stop loss of 1570$.

Sell on fall below 1570$. If a fall below 1570$ is witnessed then Zinc can move down to test the level of 1452$, 1325$ and 1064$.

The 61.8% retracement has been tested and recovery has been witnessed in the current weak

ALLUMINUM LME ::

The 50% of the rise from 1270$ to 2481$ has been tested which was at 1880$. The low registered in the current week is 1825$ and a recovery has been witnessed to close at 1937$.

Support cluster is at 1920$.

If the support of 1920$ is violated then a sustained fall could be seen.

But a rise and minor pull back from current level can be expected towards 2154$-2232$.

Resistance will be at 2070$.

A rise and close above 2070$ will confirm a rise towards 2154$-2232$.

Immediate corrective dip from current price or below can be used for buying for the pull back with a stop loss of 1920$.

NICKLE LME ::

A trend line breakdown can be seen.

But Nickel has cluster of support at lower levels of retracements at 18475$ and 16341$.

The earlier higher bottoms are placed at 16875$ and 15100$.

Minor recovery seen in the current week from the low and if closes above the trend line in this week or next week then a pullback rise towards 22463-23688 is possible.

The trend line value is placed at 19320$ for this week and for next week 19490$. Nickel has to maintain above the trend line in order to prove a false trend line breakdown. Otherwise, we could find support of 16875$ and 15100$ will be tested in due course of time.

LEAD LME ::

The 61.8% retracement of the rise from 850$ to 2685$ has been tested this week.

A recovery seen this week from the low and further weakness can be seen only below 1530$ from here on.

Resistance will be at 1860$-1870$.

If the same resistance gets crossed in days to come then a pull back to 2116$-2249$ is possible.

A fall and close below 1530$ can take the price heavily down towards 850$. Therefore, strong recovery and rise from current levels is a must.

TIN LME ::

TIN holding the support of 14775$ and a fall below the same can show a slide.

TIN seems to be unaffected by the other metal slide.

Resistance will be at 17225$-18200$. If the resistance is not crossed at the earliest then it is a matter of time before a slide is witnessed

MARKET TALK (SPOT GOLD) ::

Bearish prospects:
As long as 1233 holds, the trend may lean towards
1212 with yesterday’s low of 1221.75 attempting to
slow down the proceedings.

Bullish prospects:
A direct rise above 1233 would thwart some bearish
presumptions and call for 1237 and 1251.2, the life
time high.
Medium Term Prospects:
A close above 1254 is required before launching on to
the 1330 view, with intermediate pause likely in the
1275-80 region.

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CHECK MCX GOLD DAY LOW AND OUR VIEW ON BLOG

2010-06-09T19:17:00.000+05:30

CHECK MCX GOLD DAY LOW AND OUR VIEW GIVEN ON BLOG... WE TRULY SAY... WE KNOW TOP WE KNOW BOTTOM.... JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR DAILY REPORTS AND GET TIMELY REPORTS.. BCOZ TO EARN U HAVE TO ACT PROMPTLY.. BEFORE OTHERS DO... TARGET GIVEN IN OUR BLOG WAS.. 18810-25 AND LOW 18813 ::: JUST CALL ON +919820555212 FOR SUBSCRIPTION

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 9TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-09T13:15:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 9TH JUNE 2010 ::

MCX Gold Aug: As expected saw target at 19180 met. Corrective decline from there could see supports in the 18810-18825 zone. Daily close below 18810 could drag prices even lower.

S1 18910 S2 18840 R1 19060 R2 19140

MCX Silver July: Supports at 28990 followed by 28770. Above supports expected to hold for break above 29835.
S1 29250 S2 29070 R1 29590 R2 29770

MCX Copper June: Supports at 285 followed by 282. Favored view expect support to hold for rise toward 299. Unexpected fall below 281 to dent bullish view.

S1 284 S2 280 R1 291 R2 295

MCX Crude Oil June: Resistance at 3425 followed by 3460. Favor resistances to cap for decline to 3190 or even lower.
S1 3324 S2 3284 R1 3405 R2 3444

MCX Zinc June: Support at 78.50 followed by 77. Ideally supports could cushion dip for test of 83-84 level.
S1 78.80 S2 78.20 R1 81.30 R2 82.30

MCX Lead June: Support at 74.35 followed by 73.40. Favored view expect support to hold for test of 78-79 level in coming sessions .

S1 75 S2 74 R1 76.80 R2 77.80

MCX Nickel June: Supports at 855 followed by 845 should hold now for a move towards 905 or even higher.
S1 850 S2 847 R1 879 R2 891

MCX NG June: As expected a decline to 223 levels materialised. Further fall to 215 levels look likely while 231 caps.
S1 223 S2 219 R1 229 R2 233

SPOT GOLD :;

Traders can take profit on rise to 1239-1246-1264$ as the opportunity arises.

Expect minor correction or sideways movement in the immediate near term.

Fresh long positions can be undertaken on rise and close above 1252 with low of the day stop loss.

SPOT SILVER ::

Use rise to 18.43$-18.87$ to exit long if any and keep a stop loss of 18$ to hold long positions.

Sell on rise to 18.43$ or above with a stop loss of18.70$.

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 4.50$ and look for rise to 4.85$-5$ to book profits.

Buy on rise and close above 5$ with low of the day stop loss

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short with a stop loss of 75.8$

Sell on rise to 72.8$-74.6$ with a stop loss of 75.8$

Sell further on fall below 69.5$ with high of the day stop loss

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

Hold long positions if any with a stop loss of 18860

Use rise to 19030-19153 to book profits.

Minor correction to sideways movement could be witnessed

MCX SILVER TRADING STRTERGY ::

Traders by chance holding long positions can keep a stop loss at 29000.

Use rise to 29619-30134 to book profits and exit long positions.

A breakout and close above 29755 can bring about a breakout to test back the recent peak of 30163.

MARKET TALK (GOLD SPOT) ::

Prices have withdrawn after creating a new life time
peak of 1251.2. An attempt to break the same is likely
to be attempted today. 1254 is a technical point of
turn which has to be seen off before launching on to
the 1330 view, with intermediate pause likely in the
1275-80 region.
On the downside, it would require a break below
1230/23 band before outright bearishness is kindled.
Until then hopes of rallies would be alive

NEWS U CAN USE ::

1)Indian US, British, Swiss and Euro denominated Gold hit fresh life time highs yesterday, and retract.

2) Holdings in SPDR, the world’s largest gold backed ETF rose to a record high of 1298.530 tonnes after remaining relatively steady in the last few days.

3)Oil edges up and floats above $72 after API data showed a larger than expected decline in crude stocks. EIA US Weekly Inventory report due today.

4) Asian Equities recover some of yesterday’s losses. Nikkei down 1.2%

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CHECK GOLD DAY HIGH

2010-06-08T17:18:00.000+05:30

CHECK GOLD DAY HIGH AND OUR VIEW GIVEN ON BLOG... WE TRULY SAY... WE KNOW TOP WE KNOW BOTTOM.... JOIN OUR PAID SERVICE FOR DAILY REPORTS AND GET TIMELY REPORTS.. BCOZ TO EARN U HAVE TO ACT PROMPTLY.. BEFORE OTHERS DO... TARGT GIVEN IN OUR BLOG WAS.. 19175 AND HIGH 19198

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 8TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-08T11:43:00.000+05:30

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 8TH JUNE 2010 ::

MCX Gold Aug: As expected a break above 18745-18795 opened the way for higher levels. Immediate support is at 18870 followed by 18760-18795 levels now. Ideally a test of 19175 or even higher to 19480 can be expected now.
S1 18714 S2 18635 R1 18974R2 19055

MCX Silver July: Dips to 28620 followed by 28350 to hold for a break above 29665. Unexpected decline below 27945 could dent our bullish expectations.
S1 29010 S2 28860 R1 29355 R2 29500

MCX Copper June: While above 284, look for a pullback towards 292-294 levels for the day.

S1 285 S2 281 R1 297 R2 301

MCX Crude Oil June: As expected 3450-3455 capped upside attempts for a fall lower. While this level caps we expect the decline to continue towards 3280 3280 or even lower.
S1 3324 S2 3284 R1 3405 R2 3444

MCX Zinc June: Dips to 75 to be bought s/l 73.50 target 78.50.
S1 75.20 S2 73.20 R1 79.20 R2 81.20

MCX Lead June: Further dips to 71-72 cannot be ruled out. A strong pullback is expected from here towards 75 or even higher.
S1 73 S2 71 R1 75 R2 77

MCX Nickel June: Dips to 855 to be bought s/l 835 target 895.
S1 837 S2 817 R1 877 R2 897

MCX NG June: While 237-342 caps look for a decline to 220 levels now.
S1 224 S2 218 R1 236 R2 242

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

MACD triggers a buy signal on the trend line breakout. Failure of the signal will prove to be a negative divergence once again.

The buy level was just missed yesterday as the low made was 18610 against the buy indicated at 18591.

Traders by chance long can keep a stop loss of 18600 to hold the same.

Expect higher range of 19104-19484 to be tested.

Intra-day lower range of 18857-18724 can be tested first before making further attempt to move higher.

MCX SILVER TRADING STATERGY ::

The sell indicated stop loss got triggered and strong rise was seen.

Cover short positions for the time being on dip to 28814 or below as the opportunity arises.

Resistance of 29493-29755 can be tested.

Support will be at 28212-28031.

Only a fall and close below 28000 can show a sharper slide from here on. Otherwise, we can find price showing volatility between 30163-28000.

Weaker opening to 28814-28408 can be used for buying with a stop loss of 28000.

After buying use rise to 29597 or above to take profit.

If higher range of 29597 is attained first and then the lower range of 28814-28408, in that case avoid buying.

Weaker opening in the range of 28814-28408 can be used for buying.

Broadly, use higher range to exit long

SPOT GOLD ::

Traders can hold long positions with a stop loss of 1210$.

Look for rise to 1252$-1286$ to take profit.

SPOT SILVER ::

Cover short positions on dip to 17.80$ or below as the opportunity arises.

A rise towards 18.45$-19.44$ is possible.

The last lower top was at 18.66$.

Traders can take chance to sell around 18.6$ with a stop loss of 18.70$.

Support will be at 17.20$-17$.

Major weakness can be seen only below 17$. Otherwise, we will see volatility between 17$-21$ broadly

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 4.50$ and look for rise to 5.02$-5.30$ to book profits

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Hold short with a stop loss of 75.8$

Sell further on fall below 69.5$ with high of the day stop loss.

MARKET TALK :: (GOLD SPOT)

The sharp swing from 1210 yesterday is indicative of
the buyers getting more and more impatient; and
chasing higher and higher prices. The challenge of
1248.95 now looks to be a formality today, but 1254 is
a technical point of turn which has to be seen off
before launching on to the 1330 view, with
intermediate pause likely in the 1275-80 region

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MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 7TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-07T10:33:00.000+05:30

MCX Gold Aug: Any corrective moves to find support near 18702 or even lower to 18594 and break above 18950-18980 targeting 19365 or even higher.
S1: 18714 S2: 18635 R1: 18874 R2: 18955

MCX Silver July: Resistance at 29145 followed by 29307 to cap upside attempt for decline towards 27835. From here very strong pullback expetced higher.
S1: 28292 s2: 28142 R1: 28592 R2: 28742

MCX Copper June: While 289/291 caps we expect decline to continue lower towards 265 level. Strong correction upward can be expected from there.
S1: 289 S2: 285 R1: 297 R2: 301

MCX CrudeOil June: Pullback to 3415 to find good resistance. While resistance cap we expect further decline to 3105 or even lower to 3046. S1: 3324 S2: 3284 R1: 3405 R2: 3444

MCX Zinc June: While 78-79 caps, look for fall towards 72 level. Extreme oversold conditions cautions of corrective pullback in the offing.

S1: 74.20 S2: 73.20 R1: 79.20 R2: 81.20

MCX Lead June: Resistance at 75/76 level. Rise above 77 to confirm corrective rise higher due to extreme oversold condition.

S1: 72 S2: 71 R1: 75 R2: 77

MCX Nickel June: Due to oversold condition we can see pullback higher toward 875 or even higher toward 895.
S1: 825 S2: 817 R1: 877 R2: 897

MCX Natural Gas June: While 234-235 cap expect correction to end near 218/220 level.

S1: 224 S2: 218 R1: 236 R2: 242

INTERNATIONAL SPOT GOLD ::

Gold has once again take support of the blue color line as shown.

Resistance will be at 1226$-1249$ which is likely to get tested again.

Corrective dip to 1212$ can be used to cover short positions.

Buy on decline to 1212$-1203$ with a stop loss of 1196$.

Sell on fall below 1196$ with high of the day stop loss.

INTERNATIONAL SPOT SILVER ::

Sell on rise to 17.54$-17.81 with a stop loss of 18$.

Expect lower range of 17.10$-16.39$ to be tested

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATEGY ::

A sharp recovery in Gold from the support gap of 18287-18247 by forming a low of 18260 has been witnessed. It has now bounced to test back the recent peak of 18850. The same will be crossed. Expect Gold to hit the range of 18923-19423 before witnessing some profit booking pressure.

Heavy short covering on the back of support buying at lower levels and weak international clue in equity market brought a sharp rise.

Traders short would be in rush to cover the same.

Corrective dip to 18591 or below could be used to cover short position. Rise to 18932-19423 to take profit on the long side.

The negative divergence on MACD continues which put the question mark as to how long on the up the price movement would survive. A strong trended movement can be seen and MACD is still above the zero line which can enable price to move higher in spite of the negative divergence. Even if MACD slides price could move higher if MACD remains above zero line or speed of MACD falling towards zero is very slow.

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATEGY ::

Sell on fall below 28130 with high of the day stop loss. Expect lower range of 28034-27475 to be tested.

Resistance will be at 28593-28760.

NYMEX CRUDE ::

Sell on rise to 72.55-74.38$ with a stop loss of 75.8$.

Expect lower range of 69.49$-65$ to be tested

NYMEX NATURAL GAS ::

Hold long positions with a stop loss of 4.50$ and look for rise to 4.98$-5.35$ to book profits

MCX & COMEX EXPECTATIONS FOR 04TH JUNE 2010

2010-06-04T15:41:00.000+05:30

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SPOT SILVER:-

Sell on rise to 18.06$-18.31$ with a stop loss of 18.45$.

Expect lower range of 17.68$-17.05$ to be tested.

SPOT GOLD:-

Hold short if any with a stop loss of 1231$.

Expect lower range of 1197$-1173$ to be tested.

Exit long and sell on rise to 1210-1221$ with a stop loss of 1231$.

LEAD LME:-

Lead showing sustained weakness in short term.

Lead is approaching the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 850 to 2685$. The 61.8% retracement is placed at 1541$. The low registered this week is 1625$.

Expect some support or momentary halt to the fall around 1541$.

In case of further sustained fall and close below 1541$, the slide can move down to test the 78.6% retracement which is at 1249$.

Traders short can hold the same with a stop loss of 1870$ and look to cover the same on dip to 1541$ and 1249$ as the opportunity arises in time to come.

TIN LME:-

Support is at 16900$ and 16650$.

Expect support to be tested. If violated on sustained basis then downside momentum can be seen.

Resistance is at 18425$.

Not much activity in TIN is seen. Negative divergence on RSI was in existence but the effect of the same not yet witnessed is yet to be seen. RSI is moving down without any price action

MCX GOLD TRADING STRATERGY ::

A negative divergence on MACD is being witnessed and a trend line breakdown as well.

Exit long and sell on rise to 18487-18585 as the opportunity arises. Expect lower range of 18354-18123 can be tested.

Only a breakout and close above 18900 can show an extension of the rally otherwise we can see a near term correction or sideways movement

MCX SILVER TRADING STRATERGY ::

Sell on rise to 28881-29153 with a stop loss of 29300.

Expect lower range of 28489-27825 to be tested.

A trend line breakdown has been witnessed. Therefore, lower channel line can be tested.

MCX EXPECTATIONS ::

MCX Gold Aug: Any moves to 18525-18555 levels will be met with strong resistance.Ideally, prices could ease lower towards 18220-18250 levels while resistance caps.
S1 18380 S2 18300 R1 18520 R2 18600

MCX Silver July: Resistances at 29005 followed by 29195 now. Resistance to cap for a decline to 28475-28445 levels.
S1 28560 S2 28380 R1 28900 R2 29080

MCX Copper June: Resistance at 305-308 to cap for 293 or lower. Only rise above 311 to hint at bullish strength again.
S1 302.50 S2 298.50 R1 309.50 R2 313.50

MCX CrudeOil June: Support at 3390 followed by 3340. Ideally, price could find support in this range for move toward 3555 level.
S1 3410 S2 3370 R1 3480 R2 3520

MCX Zinc June: While 80 holds expect pull back to 83.50-85 levels.
S1 80.10 S2 79.10 R1 82.65 R2 83.65

MCX Lead June: While 78-79 caps look for a fall towards 74 levels from where a good correction could begin.
S1 76 S2 75 R1 78 R2 79

MCX Nickel June: Resistance at 905-910 to cap for decline toward 860 or even lower. Only daily close above 910 to hint at corrective pullback
S1 868 S2 856 R1 888 R2 900

MCX Natural Gas June:Rise above 209 was a decisive one opening the way for 225-30 levels now. Dips to 212 to to hold dips now.
S1 216 S2 212 R1 222 R2 226

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